stringer bell

Let's be fair on what Jake Cave is and is not. He had two good partial seasons for the Twins in 2018-19. He was well below average in the 2020 shortened season and dreadful for 165 plate appearances last year. He is a decent corner outfielder defensively, but stretched to play center. He will be 29 for the duration of the 2022 season. Cave has no business being in the lineup versus left handed pitching, but as recently as 2019, he was above average facing right handed pitchers. I don't think he's a fit on a Twins team where the other corner outfielders figure to be left handed hitters. I do think he is a small step up from what the Twins can sign as a minor league free agent. The Twins viewed him as a better player, going into 2021, than LaMonte Wade Jr. It is not Cave's fault that Wade broke out in 2021. Cave had roughly 550 plate appearances in '18-'19 and roughly 300 in '20-'21 and did have a disabling injury in 2021. I think he's a fairly good candidate to bounce back in 2022.

I would think that diminished velocity is a huge red flag for any bounceback candidate, unless they demonstrate that the velocity will be there in the coming season. I'm on board with signing one or two non-budget busters looking for a return to effectiveness, if well-researched. No team ever seems to have enough pitching. Look at what was left in the World Series and look at the White Sox. At midseason Chicago had really only used their five starters and all but Keuchel were very good. That isn't how they finished.

I saw that the predictors had one vote for the Twins getting Stroman and two for Rodriguez, as well as one for Kluber (out of three votes). I like most of these guys far better than what was served up this year by the Twins.

No one is mentioning Villar as a 2022 option. He is in his early 30s, has some pop and speed and is a decent defensive SS, with the ability to move all over the field on defense. If the marquee guys are off the table, I think he might be a good option this coming year.

I don't think they have that many. I believe they have 31 plus the 60-day IL guys, totaling 39. The Twins official site lists 39 including all of the 60-day guys and including Cotton, but not Refsnyder or Colome.

I’ll agree with the OP that more production from LF is needed. With Buxton in center, a less than great defender in left is a bit easier to paper over. Assuming good health in the infield, this is a place for Arraez. Having a legitimate glove for a fourth/fifth OF would allow for late-inning defense replacement. I think Larnach (fully healthy) might seize the position as early as Spring Training. He was beat up on his lower body most of his last month with the Twins. Kirilloff (with Sanó at first) could figure in, as well.

Isn’t that the point? These are guys who haven’t blossomed in professional baseball who just might break out.

Its a pet peeve of mine that so much importance is placed on hitting and pitching coaches, particularly for veterans. Simmons may or may not hit better next year, but I think any improvement would be on the player, not the coach. I’ll chime in that a one-year contract for half (or less) of his 2021 salary would be worth doing, with the condition that he isn’t somehow a distraction in the clubhouse. I certainly don’t agree with Simmons’ stance on COVID vaccination, but I don’t think that alone should eliminate him from consideration. He’s a fine defensive player at a critical position with a history of being an acceptable hitter. He was a terrible offensive player last year.

Cousins isn’t in the top tier of QBs, but he’s above average. He’s got really good tools to work with, but he’s a guy (IMHO) who I wouldn’t count on to win a game when they shouldn’t. Worth the money? I’m not so sure.

How much first base has Rooker played? Arraez? I’ve seen Rooker listed as a first baseman, but it seems to me the club has no interest in playing him there. The consensus seems to be that Miranda, Arraez and Gordon should all be on the roster for most of the coming season. Obviously, injuries will occur, but it doesn’t seem to be workable to have all three as non-regulars (utility players) and still bring in a shortstop from outside the system. Moving Sanó to DH most of the time makes room for Kirilloff, but doesn’t really make room for Miranda and Arraez

That was my thought as well. If Rodriquez and Pineda are available for the salaries listed, the Twins should get them both.

This is the way that major league managers handle pitching staffs these days. They are very reluctant to have the starter face a lineup a third time, they are very conscious of pitch counts in games and total innings pitched in the season. A win or even a quality start is not very important. I have said this before, but almost every starting pitcher is maxing out on velocity when they throw a fastball and 30-40 max effort fastballs is not the same as 30 90 mph fastballs when max effort would make it 95. Most starters are now built to go 5-6 innings at the most. It would be great to have a Wheeler, Buehler or Wainwright who could give you 200 innings and average more than 6 IP per start, but those guys are really rare. 39 guys pitched over 162 innings this year, barely one per team.

According to BBRef, Arraez profiles pretty close to average as a defender. He has positive numbers in both Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average and BIS Total Runs Saved Above Average at second base in both 2020 and 2021. He was one run below average in Total Zone Fielding at third in 2021 and zero runs in left field. The BIS numbers are better--three runs saved in left and five at third. Overall Arraez' defensive numbers look decent except for his rookie year. I'll edit to add that Arraez is far from a complete player. He lacks power and speed and has been injured a fair amount, but in the batter's box, he sees a lot of pitches, makes contact at a high rate and gets on base more than any other Twin.

Kirilloff and Larnach aren't rookies. I do agree that relying on five guys with less than a year's big league experience makes no sense until you're the '82 Twins or the Orioles, Pirates, or D-backs.

It seems that Lewis has the tools to be a good defensive SS. Some people aren't cut out for it though, although most every infielder that plays professionally started as a shortstop, even Sanó. I would agree that he probably will start in the minors, perhaps at Wichita, next year. It is going to take some time to get up to full speed.

Arraez has quite a bit of value, I think. He does have elite contact skills and is an average defender. I remember listening to Joe Nathan say that if Arraez stayed healthy, he was a candidate for 3000 hits. I know he was speaking to a Twins audience, but that’s a pretty strong endorsement. There probably are 5-10 teams with better 2B, but many clubs would want an on-base machine with three years of team control, and he’s only 24.

I wonder if we could get the OP to give us percentages at various positions. For example, on Lewis, is it 50% CF, 40% SS, or (in his opinion) is it a 90% chance that Royce will be in CF? Same for Martin. Same for Miranda. I am disappointed to see someone as plugged in as Cody sees neither Martin or Lewis as a long-term shortstop. It would be great to plug in one guy for five years at that crucial defensive position. I haven't seen much of either Lewis or Martin firsthand. I did see Lewis take Wheeler deep in an exhibition game in March of 2020, but when ST comes along next year that will be two years ago. What I am reading says that Lewis has superior tools and could develop into a special player. Martin has shown OBP skills and would have a floor of being a solid major league player. Miranda had a monster year at the highest level of minor league ball. Any or all of them could be playing for the Twins next year.

Three things: 1) Ehire Adrianza was (and is) a legitimate shortstop. That factor increases his value greatly. Gordon can't make that claim. 2) Not sure about this, but if Gordon has no options remaining, trying to send him to the minors probably would end his time in Minnesota. 3) Adrianza and Gonzalez are both switch hitters without discernible platoon splits. Gordon hits left handed and isn't a great fit for (limited) platoon duty, especially with Arraez around without a regular postion.

Kirilloff started 30 games in the outfield, 25 at first base, mostly when Sano was on the injured list. Yes, I agree that AK will eventually be a first baseman, but it would make sense for him to log more than a few games with Donaldson, Sano and Garver as DHs and perhaps Garver and Sano as as first base options.

We're dealing with SSS at the major league level, but Garlick hit five homers in 107 PAs, while Rooker connected nine times in 213 PAs. My math says Garlick hits it over the fence more frequently. Garlick would appear to be a better defender and he does have great splits against left handed pitching. He is almost three years older than Rooker. Yeah, I suppose if the choice came down to Garlick and Rooker, I would keep Rooker, but honestly I really don't see much future for either player. I certainly agree that the Twins need a bit more variety in their offense who could create runs by other means than hitting the ball over the fence.

I do agree. The team wasn't well-constructed lefty-righty and they also didn't have a real backup shortstop plus all of their bench guys were bat-first guys who weren't very good at defense and had very little speed.

To walk through this, first the club lost Donaldson, which meant that Arraez became the primary third baseman and was penciled in to get a lot of time in left, adding playing time for Cave (remember Arraez was in the lineup on Opening Day in left). Buxton missed a few starts in center in April and Cave was the only option to play center. Rooker was recalled for Donaldson, but went on the IL a few days later. Kepler went on the IL on April 17th. Pretty much at least one outfielder was out all month and then Buxton went down in early May, so Cave was pressed to at least platoon duty despite failing to hit during April and May. Cave was placed on the 60-day IL in mid-May. To summarize, the Twins were short at least one and usually two outfield options the first two months almost from Opening Day. I guess they could have gone to Refsnyder or Celestino earlier, but that was quite a rash of injuries.

I'm not a fan of Rooker. He has too many holes in his swing and is a poor outfielder. He will be 27 next year, so he's not really a prospect at this point. Finally, he has never hit left handers particularly well and that continued in his 200+ PA audition this year.

I think the keys for both Refsnyder and Coulumbe are surviving a forty man roster. The salary is of little impact, but keeping either of them instead of a minor leaguer with more upside would seem foolish.

I don't think anyone is suggesting moving both Garver and Polanco, I certainly wasn't. What I did say that both players held enough value to get a good return, perhaps enough to give the chance to contend next year, if a lot of other things go right. I looked back at my original post on this topic and it could be interpreted that " a couple of players" were both Polanco and Garver. I didn't intend to infer that. To me, trading a replaceable regular coming off a good year and signing the right free agents along with a lot of other things going right might be enough to get back to contention.