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Siehbiscuit

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Everything posted by Siehbiscuit

  1. Siehbiscuit
    I look at the underlying metrics being talked about (launch angle, exit velo, etc) vs the result of the at-bat is similar to what I do at work. I have been in sales for 20+ years and IMO, the salespeople that deliver the best results are those that consistently demonstrate the most consistent behavior. WARNING: Over-simplification coming - If two salespeople each closed 5 deals last month, how can I predict/forecast what each one can or will produce next month? You look at the behaviors of what they are doing (calls made, appointments set, etc). By tracking "leading indicators" and pairing them with the lagging indicators, you can better predict future outcomes. These are similar to the metrics that are being talked about. Players that have a higher barrel rate will tend to get more hits. They'll get unlucky, sure, but more often than not when evaluating multiple things or players the underlying numbers (leading indicators) add more predictive value than just the lagging indicators alone (batting average, OBP, hits, BB, etc).
  2. Siehbiscuit
    Shameless plug warning! I have coached college and HS basketball for 17 years and how I would best define character in an athlete is this: Character is showing consistency in doing the right things on and off the court (field). It’s getting your school work done, being in class, being at practice, respecting your parents and teachers and those in authority over you. Are you the kind of kid that would break up a fight if you saw the school yard bully taking someone’s lunch money because it’s the right thing to do?Doing what is ‘right’ is subjective in certain areas, but for the most part most of us quantify it the same way. Those that consistently display and do the right thing (they don’t have to be perfect) are those that I feel have high character. These types of people are the ones you WANT on your team to help build a programs culture, be leaders, as others will gravitate towards them. Character counts, and those that have it, definitely do stand out. The best news is that it is something that can be developed, but you have to be intentional about your choices and be willing to be held accountable. The fact that these two have had their character lauded at such young ages tell me that had great structure and support growing up. Not everyone has great leadership as a youth. Character is simply making right choices on a consistent basis.
  3. Siehbiscuit
    Overall, numbers for Stewart in 2018 are somewhat misleading. Like a closer (see Rodney’s April from last year or 2018) and one game or two can really skew numbers. Kohl had a clunker in his 3rd start this year (1.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO and the loss). If games are 1 game at a time, his team has won 5 of his 6 starts and his average line is looking really good. He is averaging (per start) 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1.6 Runs allowed (2.73 ERA), 1 BB, 5.6 K, 1.13 WHIP, 9.65 K/9 Looks like promise to me.
  4. Siehbiscuit
    What does being a two-sport athlete have to do with spreading the signing bonus out over 5 years?
  5. Siehbiscuit
    When you are competing the goal is to put the best team together to compete. The offensive holes in the Twins lineup are at 1B (LH - Mauer), DH (LH - Morrison) and the corner outfielders (LH - Rosario and Kepler). Sano can be a right hand bat vs tough lefties and Grossman can fill a gap with his bat in the DH and OF hole. Grossman is NOT a great defender, but when he plays for Kepler or Rosario vs a tough lefty, they can defensive sub in a close game. They are still eligible to play even when they don’t start. We all like Granite, but he is redundant for this team. Grossman has one very good skill and it is the one that is most important in run production: OBP. Grossman can get on base. That is a needed skill vs lefties that makes this team better.
  6. Siehbiscuit
    I love your prospect lists, but I will disagree on Palacios likely position. I see very little and almost NO way he is the starting shortstop for Fort Myers. Both Royce Lewis and Wander Javier could hack it there and even one of them may need to bump up or down or to a different spot to accomodate our glut off SS candidates. I look for Palacios to play at a different level or move positions.
  7. Siehbiscuit
    I thought there was no such thing as a bad 1 year deal? He may not have much left, but if the Twins can milk the last little bit out of him and its only for at worst $5m what’s the downside? Worst case, the Twins wasted $2.5 million and 3-4 starts. If he’s know good, he’ll get cut when Santana is ready to return.
  8. Siehbiscuit
    The best part about so many having different opinions is most that can and have a provided evidence for their reasoning (minus the homeschooling jab) and it makes sense. Baddoo has a huge ceiling. Rooker has amazing power and he's close to the Majors. Kirilloff has a pedigree and a great hit tool. Thorpe, Enlow, etc, etc. The guy that I LOVE is Javier. I guy that no one has questioned his ability to stick at short and has shown a great stick so far. He may not ever have the pop of Royce Lewis, but if his defense is much better, it may be hard to separate them in a few years. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins have three SS's (Gordon, Lewis and Javier) all listed as top 25 prospects at some point in their minor league careers.
  9. Siehbiscuit
    I think most everyone agrees with your theoretical. Always try and sell when the value is high. BUT...don't sell when for $0.80 on the dollar when you truly aren't desperate. JDL is an intriguing propspect, but he has some major warts (age, "stuff", injury history and lack of innings). JDL could be special, but we know what Dozier is. At worst, we get him for two seasons (and he is not blocking Nick Gordon or anyone else) and we'll get a first round Comp A pick for him at minimum. Bottom line is team's weren't clamping for a 29 year old 2B coming off a potentially fluky season. There wasn't a market, so don't sell him just to sell him.
  10. Siehbiscuit
    Unless Ted gave Enlow his number 1: "Ted Schwerzler - 1) Jovani Moran, 2) Carlos Suniaga, 3) Jovani Moran, 4) Jared Finkel, 5) Randy Dobnak," the math has Carlos Suniaga with more points than Enlow. Moran is listed as both FIRST and THIRD. If Enlow I'd 3rd on Ted's voting, Suniaga should be number 2.
  11. Siehbiscuit
    While we would all agree that a top 20 overall pitching prospect that is near Major league ready is ideal, we would have to give up Dozier to get that done. Prospect for prospect deals are rarely done. By doing that, then we are conceding completely in 2017. Beating the Astros is a long-shot, no one will disagree with you, but not getting to the playoffs at all, gives you NO shot. Finding a veteran arm, even a rental, for a mid 20s prospect is a step in the right direction of actually making the parent club better. Getting a 2 1/2 year controllable player for a fair price (likely a top ten prospect or two in the teens) is a very valuable piece too. It may be a small gain, but how much different would this team look with them in our bullpen all year vs Breslow and Belisle? There'd likely be 3-4 games more in the W column.
  12. Siehbiscuit
    I respect everyone that says promote from within, yet I struggle with us having a "we gotta fix the bullpen, but don't give anything up to do it" mentality. We all love prospects, but forget that so many of them do not pan out. Michael Tonkin has very good minor league track record and has been dominant in the minors (12.7 K/9 currently). It frequently doesn't translate to MLB success. Other franchises values its players too and often we get too attached to our own. Hand is an established Major League reliever and hopefully we can get a guy like Curtiss, Chargois, Reed and Burdi to someday realize their potential and put it all together, but how long have we already been waiting on many of these guys? I thought Tyler Jay would be a quick to the Majors guy? What happened? Don't sell the farm for a rental like Neshek, but IMO, a guy in the mid 20's is reasonable (Niko Goodrum territory) is worth helping the bullpen this year. A guy like Hand is worth giving up a 10-15 prospect or two, IMO (some combination of a LaMonte Wade and/or Daniel Palka). To get good players, you have to roll the dice on your prospects sometimes. Most of the time, the prospects never amount to much. Play to win, both now and long-term.
  13. Siehbiscuit
    Over his last ten games, Gordon has drawn 8 BB's. Nice to see some plate discipline.
  14. Siehbiscuit
    The people that are frustrated by Lewis as a SS pick, keep in mind that this guy has the potential to be better than Gordon. It may be extra depth, but if Lewis has the ability to be a Franciso Lindor, Carlos Correa or even a Manny Machado-type, why do we care that we have extra Ss's? Btw, most experts think he'll go to CF like BJ Upton did.
  15. Siehbiscuit
    I understand the frustration, but I do think people are frustrated because they don't have all the information. Jeremy Nygaard pointed out on Twitter, by drafting Leach at 37 (someone they liked, but is likely signable under slot), they can get a tougher sign guy like Enlow. BUT if Enlow still doesn't sign, which may happen, the Twins only lose $755k ( the slotted value of its 3rd round pick. If they had drafted Enlow at 37 and he still didn't sign (even though the $$$$ offered were the same), the Twins lose the slot bonus assigned to pick 37, which is $1.8M. The Twins can offer Rookers slot value - $1.9M - could get $1.5 Leach - 1.8M - could get $1.5M Enlow - $755k - could get $2M (money from Royce Lewis deal added) Bottom line is a lot of risk is mitigated, by taking a tough sign later, because the Twins only lose $755 bonus money with no Enlow signing.
  16. Siehbiscuit
    I think it's like KLaw said, it's what he'd do. Everyone has a different personal philosophy and I'm not in the McKay camp. I personally believe he is already too close to his ceiling and the projection isn't comparable. Hell likely be in a rotation this time next year, but he may never be more than a number three. I WANT more than that if I have the #1 pick. I like Wright a lot too. He has more room to grow and has competed in the best conference in the NCAA. I just can't be paralyzed by the past or fear of failing. I need to evaluate each prospect on his own merit, not on Becketts or Bundys or even Kohl Stewart's. First rounders bust all the time and I will do all I can to make the best pick I could. At the end of the day, I'm the guy that has always worked on 100% commission and isn't scared to take the risk and bet on myself. In the case for Greene, I have to bet on my evaluation being solid and rolling the dice. As for where I, since no one is asking, I'm for Wright or Greene. If Wright comes at a discount, then I'd go that route. This is a matter of philosophy (College pitcher vs HS pitcher). Lower bust rate, but lower ceiling vs higher bust rate, but high reward. Philosophical differences.
  17. Siehbiscuit
    What about international kids? There's no stats, it's interviews and scouting and projection. And I think you are underselling the 'athleticism' dynamic. Defining athleticism is two parts, IMO. The physical traits (run fast, jump high, etc), but then there is also the hand-eye coordination portion. I have coached for 16 years and many kids have one of the two components but if you are missing the other and the fatal flaw is exposed. Combine the aptitude and Greene's pedigree and experience and it is a high potential recipe. But, he could still bust. Championships level teams should take risks, IMO, especially when Twins will NEVER acquire these types via free agency.
  18. Siehbiscuit
    I won't pretend to be smarter than anyone here, but not a single person has mentioned Catro's ability to call a game. Catchers are the quarterback, the point guard, the guy that needs to know what everyone's responsibility is AND know how to attack each batter. Mental aptitude or pitch calling isn't measured in WAR. So we need to stop using that as the baseline measure. He caught the 2015 Cy Young award winner. I'd like to think how preparation had something to do with that. There's too many intangibles that you can't measure with catchers that provide value. I want a catcher than can put our pitchers in a better position, prior to the pitch during the pitch and then after the pitch. If he provides value with the bat, even better. Our pitching staff needs someone that makes them better and I want to believe the framing skills and his bat vsRHP are not the only reason for 24 million deal.
  19. Siehbiscuit
    I'm with Thrylos. I like guys that show command of good secondary stuff. The "aces" in MLB are more than just guys with velocity, but have great secondary pitches.
  20. Siehbiscuit
    Hypothetically, if Gonsalves had been the pick at number 4 and Stewart the pick in the 4th round wouldn't we all be very pleased? Gonsalves is performing like what we "wish" Stewart was, and Stewart like a solid 4th round pick. Both have a very solid upside still.
  21. Siehbiscuit
    Long time lurker here, but needed to log in to defend Jay. This kid has the tools and put up good numbers. Strained neck, fatigue, we don't know, but the guy is left-handed with great tools. Gonsalves has excellent production, but is knocked for his lack of projection because of a good third pitch and "stuff." Jay has multiple pitches that project and has an extra three to four ticks on the heater. Don't take for granted that he has to learn how to pitch and can't just reach back for his 97 mph stuff for an inning or two as he did at Illinois. Having two lefties in AA ball or higher that have promise is a great thing for this organization.
  22. Siehbiscuit
    There is truth to what you're saying, but it is theory. Why do the NBA players "seem" to try harder in the playoffs than the season? Why do at-bats seem to be thrown away in the middle innings, but the 9th inning they seem so much more focused? Shouldn't anyone be able to be a closer? All the innings are the same, right? Having an incentive to play, whether you are a professional or not is a real thing. It may not be easy to quantify, but that doesn't make it less real. Apparently, you can't measure "clutch" either, but I am pretty sure I would like Mike Trout up with the game on the line even if the "data" didn't support it.
  23. Siehbiscuit
    I don't think many believe that Santana, Escobar or even Jorge Polanco, will ever be great at SS. Jorge has the best potential there (due to his bat), but they all have their flaws. Is it out of the question, now that Dozier has matured (emotionally) and is a confident team leader to put him back at SS? I'd love to save Berrios and Gibson and try Dozier at SS with a guy like Polanco at 2B.
  24. Siehbiscuit
    The issue should not be about playing 3B. It's about getting both of their bats in the lineup.
  25. Siehbiscuit
    Completely disagree on "ruining" him by having him start. There's no basis for this. He hasn't only been a three out guy. The kids arm has low mileage and has 3 good pitches. Give the kid a chance.
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