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ashbury

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Blog Entries posted by ashbury

  4. Why is it...?

    · ashbury · 05/21/2012 04:46 PM

    Why is it that on most days, when I channel surf to ESPN during commercial breaks of the other show I'm watching, I never get an update on how the Twins' game is going, but when they lose a game 16-4 like yesterday it's constantly the game shown on the crawl at the bottom of the screen when I click over there? Ugh.

  5. This day in Twins History

    · ashbury · 05/15/2012 10:02 PM

    May 15: on this day in Twins history, 2012, Jason Marquis gave up three home runs in one inning, in a lethargic 5-0 loss that also featured (not to be outdone) four different Twins grounding into double plays.
     
    Wait, what? You have to wait a year to mark a milestone like this one?

  6. Inability to drive in runs

    · ashbury · 05/13/2012 05:13 PM

    The Twins lost 2-1 yesterday, wasting a pretty good season debut by P.J. Walters. From the AP story:
    The struggling Twins offense couldn't come up with a timely hit. Minnesota went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position and stranded six runners over the final four innings.
    "We had plenty of chances, but it just didn't work out for us tonight,'' Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said.
     
    Hm. On offense, the Twins had 5 hits total, but 6 walks to go with them. The Jays had 7 hits, and no walks. The Jays grounded into two double plays; the Twins didn't ground into any but had a runner cut down on a fly ball. The teams had two extra base hits apiece:, a double and a homer for the Jays; two doubles for the Twins. For the game:
     
    TOR: BA=.219 OBP=.219 SLG=.344 OPS=.563
    MIN: BA=.161 OBP=.297 SLG=.225 OPS=.522
     
    These are both poor batting results, as you could expect in a 2-1 game. OPS isn't the greatest stat in the world, for various reasons - but it says that in this game, Toronto did a little less poorly. The Twins did a nearly acceptable job at getting guys on base (league average OBP this year is .317), but their slugging was putrid (league SLG is .405). The eventual game winning hit was Bautista's home run. Mauer and Dozier apparently gave the ball a ride but only collected doubles. That turned out to be the difference in the game.
     
    Walks are better than outs, doubles are better than singles, and homers trump them all. Bautista didn't have anyone on base when he connected. But he put himself in scoring position nonetheless while standing at home plate, and the Jays won. (Since the Twins only run was scored on a walk, this means two of the three runs in the game were not covered by the RISP statistic, for what that's worth.)
     
    For the season, the Twins are 10th in the league in getting on base. They are dead last in slugging average (and in home runs in particular). Not coincidentally, they are also dead last in runs scored. The table setting is below par, and the power is simply not there at all. Adding Komatsu and Mastroianni only addresses the table setting, at best, and does nothing for the glaring need, throwing the offense further out of balance even if they do better than the players they replaced.
     
    Until both facets of the game improve, and a balance between getting on base and driving runners in is achieved, run scoring is going to remain at a premium.
     
    And until such time as the Twins still lose despite getting better game-OPS than their opponent, lamenting about 0-9 with runners in scoring position is for, well, losers.

  7. Plouffe has gone poof?

    · ashbury · 05/03/2012 04:00 PM

    As of May 3, 2011, the sainted Drew Butera had this set of stats for the Twins:
    AB: 50
    BB: 2
    H: 5
    2B: 2
    R: 3
    RBI: 4
    BA: .100
    OBP: .151
    SLG: .140
    OPS: .291
     
    This morning, I see this for Trevor Plouffe 2012:
    AB: 36
    BB: 7
    H: 4
    2B: 1
    HR: 1
    R: 3
    RBI: 2
    BA: .111
    OBP: .256
    SLG: .222
    OPS: .478
     
    He's been basically five walks, and one double turned into a home run, better than Drew Butera.
     
    Drew came back strong to finish with a .449 OPS. Trevor is already higher than this so can we hope for great things from here on out?

  8. Timely hitting

    · ashbury · 05/01/2012 04:40 PM

    A digression from the discussion on Morneau's wrist, concerning an opinion that the Twins were one timely hit away from winning the 4-3 game with the Angels, that I'll post here now.
     
    Twins had 8 hits, Angels had 8 hits. Was it a matter of timeliness?
     
    Angels 1st: double, followed by single. One run scores.
    Angels 4th: single, followed by homer. Two runs score.
    Angels 7th: homer. One run scores.
    Twins 8th: hpb, double, single, single, single: Three runs score.
     
    For the game, Twins had seven singles and one double. Angels had four singles, two doubles and two homers; one of their doubles was not "timely" (no one on base, no one drove Trout in), one of the homers was not "timely" (no one on base).
     
    Weak-hitting table-setting teams depend on long scoring sequences and hope for timeliness. Better-hitting teams get extra base hits and let the good things happen. OBP is good; OPS is better.

  9. Clarity, please

    · ashbury · 04/30/2012 08:50 PM

    I hope it's not like last year. After the slow start they turned the corner mid-season, and on July 20 just before the trade deadline they were up to 46-51, mirror image of Detroit's 51-46. There was hope of taking a weak division if momentum continued. As a result, despite treading water the next few days up to the very deadline, they did not move any veterans for prospects; they weren't buyers, either, thank goodness. I supported this approach, at the time. But it was a sad mirage: the bottom fell out (and Detroit straightened up) and even by very early August it was already apparent that the gamble to stay in the race had failed. The outlook for 2012 and 2013 might be very much better now, had some players (free-agents-to-be, marginal guys clogging the system) been traded for good prospects. It cost us a year.
     
    This year, I hope for clarity at the trade deadline, and then let Ryan try to work some front-office magic in one direction or the other. Good baseball, but no false hopes, please.

  11. Mauer Power

    · ashbury · 04/27/2012 02:38 PM

    I was thinking about the 2012 Twins' imbalance on offense, between getting on base (acceptable) and power (low). A guy we look to for power is Joe Mauer, so I decided to see where he stands at this early stage of the season. Arbitrarily I picked his 2008 season as a benchmark - an excellent season by any standard, but not as insanely high a bar to set as his 2009 season, and one very much in line with his career numbers. In 2008 he had 633 plate appearances, and so far in 2012 he has 83. If I scale up his production proportionally, what do we get?
     
    Year: 2008/2012
    Hits: 176/175
    2B: 31/23
    3B: 4/0
    HR: 9/8
    BB: 84/84
     
    This is almost freakish, especially considering how small the sample-size is for 2012 as yet. He's almost exactly on pace for the same number of hits *and* walks - you can see that the OBP's are similar (.413/.410) but these two components line up too. The home runs are close as well, though largely a coincidence because the lone HR in 2012 could just as easily be 0 or 2.
     
    It's the doubles and triples, which I'll combine as similar kinds of hits especially for a lefty, where he's coming up short in 2012. 35 versus 23, if this performance continues, looks like a significant dropoff for a season, and continues the trend from his 2011 season; a dozen fewer chances to drive Denard or Jamey home from first if one is there, a dozen fewer chances for someone else to drive Joe home with just a single. Of course, I have to repeat that this is a small sample size, and a mere two doubles stretched from singles would have brought things into (freakishly) perfect alignment.
     
    So... what to make of this? First, clutch/RISP issues aside (which I think to be non-existent for Joe anyway), there's nothing horribly wrong with Mauer's hitting, especially only 19 games into the season. Second, nevertheless, I would like to see something changed.
     
    Anecdotally, we've seen too many bases-loaded situations not turn into crooked numbers (or even a vertical); this suggests enough table setting and not enough power. It's not only a question of making better use of these bases-loaded situations; some of these situations would not have been bases-loaded at all if somebody had hit a double to drive in a run earlier in the sequence.
     
    We can't ask most of the Twins table-setters to change; Jamey Carroll isn't going to suddenly start hitting doubles in the gap, and Ben Revere won't be launching balls over the fence anytime soon. We can't ask Clete Thomas to stop swinging and missing, for that matter, though we can ask Gardy to stop penciling him in. And the power guys, Willingham and Morneau, are providing the power (Morneau's batting average aside).
     
    But Joe Mauer is the one guy on the team who has the range of batting skills, IMO, to adjust his game to the needs of his team in a given year. Joe's getting on base at a .410 clip, as mentioned earlier, which is phenomenal. He needs to stop that. Well, if he could give us 2008 numbers, that would be super. But if he has to sacrifice some of the on-base part of his game, to increase the power above even 2008, I think he should do it. Launch a few home runs, drive a lot of balls to the gap. Fifteen homers and 45 doubles/triples? I think he's capable. If he bats only .280 in doing so, with a few less walks, so be it.
     
    This is somewhat independent of being in the #3 slot in the batting order, but that's another good/traditional reason too.
     
    I don't want to think of him as Joe Table-Setter. We need to see Mauer Power. Not because it would make him a "better" hitter, but because it's what the team needs this year. It would be an aspect of "quiet leadership", given that he's not known for being a vocal leader, that would help his team a lot.

  12. Separated at birth?

    · ashbury · 04/26/2012 06:58 PM

    Another recycled observation from last year, when a certain someone got reassigned...
     
    Is it just me, or does this guy
    http://tinyurl.com/746qaud
    look an awful lot like this guy?
    http://tinyurl.com/2a4u9mk
  13. Regarding the discussion of whom to pick with the #2 choice in the upcoming draft, there is also the group of supplemental picks the Twins will get. Even if the team believes pitching is their sorest need, it's one reasonable strategy to pick a stud position player at #2 and then load up with pitching prospects a little further down in the draft, if you think pitchers are inherently riskier to develop. However, those supplemental draft picks aren't quite the slam-dunk that some people were thinking when the question was whether to re-sign free agents after last season. Here is a lightly-edited excerpt from a posting I made to alt.sports.baseball.mn-twins last December. I'd be interested in people's reactions:
     
    ...Supplemental draft picks are of varying
    value. I prowled around baseball-reference.com's record
    of drafts, going back far enough to evaluate full careers,
    and if you look at the second round of the 1994 June draft,
    i.e. picks 35-63 (about equivalent to current supplemental
    rounds), the only players who made any significant major
    league contribution were Troy Glaus and Matt LeCroy. That
    was admittedly a weak year (1995 had several luminaries
    like Carlos Beltran and Sean Casey), but LeCroy as the
    second best player out of all 29 picks after the real
    first round??? Pretty much the definition of a crapshoot
    unless your team is awarded all the picks, not just two
    or three.
     
    BTW, I saw a suggestion, probably tongue-in-cheek, that the
    Twins should sign Willingham and the A's sign Cuddyer,
    at the same price. Then each team collects the draft
    pick(s), and trades the two players back for each other.

  14. Your 2021 Scottsdale Scorpions!

    2021 · ashbury · 10/28/2021 05:15 AM

    I'm in Scottsdale for 3 days in the late-autumn sun.  Well, no sun tonight, but it was a nice evening for a ballgame despite a sparse crowd of under a thousand, with the always convivial baseball fan Mrs Ash attending with me at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick tonight, where we witnessed the Rafters at home defeat "our" Scottsdale Scorpions 3-2. 
    Two Twins prospects were in the starting lineup, Andrew Bechtold playing third base and Michael Helman in left field.  Bechtold showed a willingness to take rather close pitches even with two strikes, walking 3 times but striking out twice, once looking at the third strike - I would have liked to see him put the ball in play a time or three, although his selectivity shows up in his regular season stats in the Twins organization, so it's a part of his game.  Helman put the ball in play three times out of four (striking out on a checked swing his last time up), but a couple of popups on either side of the infield plus a fly to center didn't add up to anything but an 0-for-4.  On the defensive side, Helman wasn't particularly tested but did convert the one fly ball hit his way into an out, while Bechtold made a couple of 5-3 putouts including a very nice throw on a tough chance.  Here's a photo of Helman, I believe, at the plate.

    One Twins prospect, Cody Laweryson, got a chance to pitch in the sixth inning.  His 87-MPH fastball didn't excite me much, and I guess his 78-MPH offering was a curveball.  He pitched what should have been a clean inning with one strikeout, but an error by Red Sox SS prospect Christian Koss (his second of the game) put the leadoff batter on base and a stolen base made it more interesting.  But with two out and the runner on third, Laweryson acquitted himself very well by hustling over to first base for a 3-1 putout against a speedy batter, Brewers outfield prospect Joey Wiemer.
    Speaking of shortstops, Rockies prospect Ezequiel Tovar showed me everything you could want from that position on a play leading off the ninth, by ranging deep to his right and then firing a laser to nip the batter (the aforementioned Koss, as it happens) at first base.  Tovar also hit the 3-run homer that provided Salt River all their runs in the winning effort.  Not bad from the #8 spot in the batting order.  He just turned 20 and was promoted to high-A during the season.  Maybe the Rockies would like to throw him into a trade? Does anyone reading this have a problem with someone named Tovar playing some SS for our Twins?

  15. The Cheapskate goes to a parade

    · ashbury · 10/31/2018 10:02 PM

    The Red Sox won the World Series on the road, so my tentative plan to be a Cheapskate and lurk the Fenway environs in anticipation of a fourth win proved impractical. Next best thing was to pencil in Wednesday the 31st, when a parade in the team's honor was scheduled.
     
    Large crowds were anticipated for the 11:00 start, so again I relied on public transportation. And again I was concerned that the commuter train might already be full before it pulled into my station, but again it was easy-peasy. A rare unscheduled train for the event, and plenty of room. (Not so, on the ride home. Wisely, I boarded at Back Bay, one stop before Yawkey/Fenway, where tons of people got on and filled the train up.)
     
    I'm not good at guessing crowd sizes, but I'll go with 200,000. If someone in authority tells me it was 50,000, I'll think that was low but go with it. If they tell me it's 1 million, I'll think, wow, I had no idea. Bottom line, though, there was just a huge crowd lining the entire parade route. I figured I'd go all the way into South Station (most everyone on my train skipped Fenway and got off at Back Bay) and then work my way back toward Fenway, and pick a reasonably uncrowded spot to wait for the parade. That didn't work - wall to wall people at the Common and beyond, so I circled back by side streets and met up with the parade at Back Bay, near the train stop I wanted anyway. I bailed out perhaps a few minutes early, to catch the noon train.
     
    I can't say I'm thrilled with any of the photos I took, but here are a couple. This is on Tremont Street, near the end of the parade route, probably an hour before the Duck Boat vehicles would arrive:
     

     
    It was kind of luck-of-the-draw which side of the vehicle each given player was waving from, and even with names on the sides I'm still not sure who was who. Is Eduardo Nunez wearing glasses?
     

     
    This one is pretty definitely David Price, unless someone tells me it isn't.
     

     
    I have a picture of confetti but it is wimpy. To get an awesome photo, I guess you had to be up high, so I am stealing this photo from the Boston Globe:
     

     
    Season over. I am ready for the Arizona Fall League.
  16. Just a quick summary of Twins-oriented doings, at the AFL game in Peoria Friday evening from which Our Heroes emerged victorious.
     

     
    Because every one of the Twins pitchers appeared in the Thursday game, we did not expect to see any Friday night, and thus were not disappointed on that count. However, perhaps in compensation, all three of the Twins batters were in the starting lineup and played all game.
     
    Lamont Wade batted sixth in the order. He achieved sac fly RBI in each of the second and seventh innings - both of the warning track variety.
     

     
    Good result, although it did not allay worry that our outfield prospect could become known as Warning Track Wade. Oddly, in the big fifth inning rally by Surprise where they batted around, Wade accounted for all three outs, by striking out to lead off the inning, and then grounding out 4-6-3 to end it. Obviously, other stuff went on in between his yeoman work.
     
    Chris Paul, who followed Wade in the batting order, did nicely, tallying two runs, one via a single and being brought around to score in that decisive fifth, the other on a solo homer in the sixth. He struck out in the second and grounded out to short in the seventh.
     

     
    He was a little shaky a time or two playing first base - one error scored officially on a shortstop throw he didn't handle.
     
    Sean Miller played second base and batted ninth. It was he who drove in Paul in the fifth, on a nice single. He also had a sharp liner to second base for an out in the third, and a walk in the sixth, closing with a popout to short in the eighth inning.
     

     
    In the field, he had four assists - on one, he bobbled the ball but recovered to throw out the batter. A pretty nice game for Sean, all in all.
     
    After the game, which featured "only" two HBP, a nice fireworks show gave the disappointed home crowd something to cheer. Tonight, the home-and-home series concludes with Surprise hosting a (no doubt) revenge-minded Peoria team seeking to atone for this laugher.
  17. I stumbled into a free ticket to the Red Sox game against the Pirates on Thursday. It was a makeup game and a guy seated near me also said he'd gotten his tickets free from someone. (He also insisted that Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City is new, so our conversation was not illuminating for me. Only USAFChief is entitled to consider Kauffman "new".)
     
    I anticipated that attendance might be sparse - April games tend to be attended in the low 30,000s rather than the high 30,000s anyway, and a makeup game had to give many people problems. Here is a view toward the rightfield bleachers minutes before 2 pm game time:
     

     
    But here are those bleachers later in the game, so I guess people did finally show up on this sunny but seasonable (50 degree) April afternoon:
     

     
    My seats were not in the bleachers as I had been told, but rather the first base grandstand high in the lower deck, meaning it was shady, as you can tell, and therefore cold. Here's Tessie the Green Monster, said to be the little sister of Wally the Green Monster, posing with a young fan or three:
     

     
    The game itself wasn't very dramatic until the 8th - a walk and a homer in the top of the first off of starter Eduardo Rodriguez was a downer...

     
    ... while Pirates starter Chad Kuhl pitched mostly effectively:
     

     
    The Red Sox' first run in the second was fairly routine, arising from a pair of clean doubles leading to no chance for defensive prowess - if the triple is said to be the most exciting play in baseball, doubles can be among the least interesting ways to score a run. The Pirates got an insurance run in the sixth, again started by a double but this time with a less routine end-result due to a throwing error by the catcher to third base on an ensuing strikeout-and-steal.
     
    Still, it was a quiet game, one that had me wondering if I would stick it out for all 9 innings. However, for the 8th inning I finally moved over to the RF seats which were starting to empty again, to get some sun, and that coincided with Sweet Caroline and then the rally against the Pirates bullpen that erased the 3-1 deficit. I am not a big fan of Hanley Ramirez
     

     
    but I have to admit the guy is money at the plate and the bases were loaded for him when he (notice a trend?) doubled. (Not on the above pitch. ) This cleared the bases, but not in the way the fans hoped, as the runner from first, Mookie Betts, almost made it home safely but was called out via replay. So the score was only tied. But that merely meant that, after an instant walk to Mitch Moreland to try to set up a double play, Bogaerts could single home Ramirez (who had advanced on the earlier throw) for the eventual game-winner. Closer Craig Kimbrel allowed a leadoff single, but a flyout, caught-stealing, and groundout snuffed that small threat, and the Fenway Faithful went home happy.
     
    So, this was a game with a very slow leadup, which my non-American or non-baseball friends probably would not appreciate, to a brief but highly satisfying resolution, to which I'm sure those same friends would say "that's it???" I'm glad I got to go.

  19. A few photos from Oakland

    · ashbury · 06/03/2016 01:47 AM

    A few photos from Tuesday night's and Wednesday afternoon's games in Oakland.
     

     
    Possibly one of the last photos taken of Miguel Sano before his trip to the 15-day DL. Notice the tear in his left trouser leg. Left hamstring injury next time up to bat... coincidence? I think not.
     

    "Sorry son, that's strike three. By the way, I forgot to say, welcome back to the majors."
     

    Gulls just wanna have fun.
     

    Another Dull relief appearance. God, I slay me.
     

    Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, and (not pictured) Dennis Eckersley entertain the fans. Old Timers Day, I guess.
     

    On a day game after a night game, Kurt Suzuki apparently moonlights as one of the coaches.
     

    Pat Dean intimidates the other team with an 88-MPH warmup pea.
     

    This is probably either strike one, strike two, or strike three, to either the first or second or third batter Trevor May faced Wednesday.
     

    Pinch hitter Joe Mauer coaxing ball four, or maybe ball three, I forget, to start a short-lived ninth-inning rally. I could upload the shot of him taking the first-pitch strike, but we already kind of know what that looks like, don't we?

  21. Oakland game, May 31 2016

    · ashbury · 06/02/2016 04:53 AM

    Quick report from Oakland: Sano trying to swipe at that one flyball "triple" by Burns in the second inning didn't look any prettier from a seat right behind the fair-foul pole than it must have from the normal camera view.
     
    In fairness, the A's right fielder (I think it was still Coughlan) returned the favor almost identically, in the fifth as a favor to Grossman.
     
    Ragged game.
  22. I had the pleasure of watching today's game in person at Hammond Stadium, versus the portion of the St Louis Cardinal roster they deemed worth putting on a bus (hint: no stars). This writeup ought to be pretty quick, because it's one of those rare games where the box score plus a little inference pretty much tells you all you need to know.
     
    But first, I'll mention that we didn't have tickets to start with, and didn't want to feed the scalpers - but a little bird had told us that tickets get freed up just before most games - seats that are controlled by the two teams (for players' relatives etc) until they are sure they aren't needed. So we got there 2.5 hours early and waited half an hour, and sure enough we wound up getting $29 seats nearly behind home plate on the third base side up near the top. Seems high priced for spring games but the world is like that now. Just a little tip for those of you wanting to attend games.
     

     
    Kyle Gibson was as good as his line score would suggest - batters were not able to distinguish his offspeed offerings and were getting fooled by them. Two hits, no runs, four strikeouts, in four innings. A little shaky in the third, followed up by a strong fourth. Very hopeful sign.
     
    I've not been a strong proponent of Tim Stauffer when the news broke that the Twins had signed him, and nothing today improved my view on him. He got through his first inning with no drama and three ground balls, but his next two innings showed he was no mystery to the Cardinal batters and they piled up four Very Earned Runs in that span. I thought it was silly to envision him as a competitor for the fifth starter spot - now put him back in low-leverage situations like the Padres had him, is my advice.
     
    The rest of the game was your usual parade of relievers, who did OK but nothing great, allowing two more runs in total. The last run was aided by some shoddy left field work by Nunez who allowed an extra base by not being able to decide whether to dive for a flare or not, winding up letting it drop but then not corralling the ball to keep the baserunner from getting to third, whereupon he scored on a sac fly. Bad luck to Fien I guess, but he did allow the first hit legitimately. This run was the one that tied it at 6-6, which was the eventual final score.
     
    Conversely the Twins scored 5 early runs, three in the third capped by a Brian Dozier two-run homer to left following a Schafer RBI, and two more in the fourth that drove off starter Carlos Martinez when Suzuki doubled down the third base line. Nice. After that the Card bullpen was effective, though they let in another run in the seventh when Herrmann drove in Argenis Diaz. (I was surprised to see Herrmann playing first after Mauer was lifted, so I guess they really are grooming him to be super-sub, and thus likely to be the 25th man on Opening Day.)
     
    Twins fans at Hammond today were outnumbered by Cardinal fans. They were courteous but toward the end of the game the repeated rallies had them cheering their favorites on, and the Twins fans were too "Minnesota Nice" (I guess) to put up much of a fuss.
     
    The game ended on Nunez being thrown out at the plate trying to score on a short single to left, having been waved in by coach Glynn. With 2 out and weak hitters now in the lineup it was the obvious call for the situation, as all choices at that point had become low percentage and this was the most entertaining one to try. I saw it as him being out by at least two steps, leaving matters at 6-6, and it being Spring they did not go to extras. Everyone departed in a good mood - perhaps as in soccer, a "friendly" played to a tie.
     

  23. Poker night with Terry Ryan

    · ashbury · 12/04/2014 05:40 PM

    One of the interview questions with Terry Ryan at the Torii Hunter introduction press conference was, "are you surprised it [he?] took a one year contract?". Terry twitched and suppressed a smile and basically used every single one of his facial muscles before replying "no".
     
    http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/12/04/twinsights-terry-ryan-defensive-metrics-twins-ignore/
     
    (Second short video in the sequence.)
     
    My reaction is that, while poker is not my game and I am terrible at it, if by chance he and I were ever at a table, I'd be looking for that "tell" sometime when he raised.

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