SkyBlueWaters

My understanding is that the Dodgers signed him to that incentive-laden contract years ago because they were concerned he might be injury-prone. I hope he stays healthy, and pitches well. We sure need a solid front of the rotation.

LEN3 began his column this way: "Now that they have taken their relationship with super agent Scott Boras to another level, one thing is certain: The Twins are on a path to the World Series." I found that a bit optimistic. But hey, spring is coming. I suppose it's the time for optimism. P.s. In '19 I went to Fla to see a few games. The wife and I were walking the beach in Ft. Myers one pleasant night and stopped at an outdoor cabana where a woman was wailing to her friend, "I don't wanna go back! I don't wanna go!" Heard her tell the bartender she had a ticket to MSP. Even in March, we can deal with hard truths.

"Huge impact"? I hope you're right. We have a deeper rotation now, but we lack an ace. Aside from Maeda's pitching in '20, pre-TJ, and Berrios in '21, the front of our rotation hasn't been stellar recently, meaning two to three guys pitching well, keeping the team in games through at least 5-6 innings, limiting wear on the bullpen so relievers can be used where most effective. Mahle turns 29 in September. He's pitched all or part of six seasons, so it seems to me the track record is pretty well established. A career ERA of 4.35, career WHIP of 1.315. In seasons where he has lasted 50 or more IP, his best is managing an ERA of 3.75 ('21), and a solid WHIP of 1,218 ('22). But hey, maybe he's on the verge of putting it all together. Maybe Twins coaching and the trainer will maximize his talent. "Stud"? I'm not seeing it yet. But I'm ready to be convinced. I'd love to see a Twin among the league leaders in ERA, K's, WHIP, K/BB, ERA+, or even a staid old stat like "wins."

Some years back, I went systematically through year-by-year total payroll figures for all 30 franchises, over a two decade span, sorting them into top, middle and bottom thirds. I then looked at how many of those teams made the playoffs and how many won the world series. At that point, only the '03 Marlins were a bottom third team to win a world series. (The '97 Marlins kind of surprised me, I'd forgotten how they had a number of high-priced veterans.) I had a friend who was convinced Sabrmetrics was going to be the difference maker for some true-believer to ace out a bigger payroll team. He denigrated the Giants as old school. When they won, he discovered they had an analyst hidden away crunching numbers. He also felt Ned Yost was such a bad manager he cost his teams games every year. When Yost won a WS, he again found KC had a stat-analyst. I realized the cause was lost. Whoever won, he was going to find a Sabrmetrician in the catacombs. Sorry for the digression. I agree with you the Twins' recent moves have been good. They will once again be good Upper Midwestern fun. One of my yardsticks for becoming wildly enthusiastic is to compare the best pitching staffs. Especially starting rotations. Again, I'm not complaining about our hot stove season moves. The Twins got better. But when I look at the best pitching staffs, how do the Twins rank in spring training? I'm crossing my fingers. I really hope someone emerges as an ace. And if they signed Matt Moore and he pitched close to what he did in '22, I'd happily admit he earned the Pohlad dollars, and I was wrong to be skeptical.

It will be interesting now to see where Moore ends up. I will say last year’s relative success was intriguing. If we had “Yankee dollars” to spend, I could see the chance as worthwhile. Unfortunately, we have Twins dollars—or maybe Pohlad dollars. Which, however plentiful, don’t seem to fly around with the abandon of Yankee dollars.

Exactly. A decade ago this guy was very promising, but TBR knew what they were doing when they dealt him. The Giants gave up another good prospect for him in Matt Duffy (2nd in ROY voting), and Moore was terrible. One year he led the NL in losses and earned runs coughed up. He hemorrhaged baserunners like Bonnie & Clyde. In 174 IP, he gave up 267 hits and walks. Yeah, a WHIP of 1,532 over 31 starts. Nothing like putting your team behind the 8 ball repeatedly. It's a big gamble to throw big money at the guy given all the disappointments throughout his career. I know, last year was better, pitching relief in the weakened AL West. But with a track record as established as his, when did he last put together two good years back to back? Given the Twins' budget, giving this guy a big payday is a real risk.

Wrong. His ERA was 4.40 for Cincy, 4.41 for us, when he was healthy enough to start. his ERA+ was 100. An average pitcher. If nothing else, look at the three prospects the Twins gave up for him. Do you find them on any top prospect lists?

Are you imagining a team built to last through three rounds of playoffs (plus perhaps the wild card) that can't win during the regular season? As I pointed out earlier, Mahle's career WHIP is 1.315, his career ERA is 4.35. That's fine for a team that doesn't expect to get to the playoffs. So how are you stacking Mahle up against other number threes and finding him an advantage to the Twins? Again, I'm tired of seeing the Twins as not-quite-good-enough. Generally, I'd like to see the Twins rotation as deep and capable of playing well against the better teams in the league. I don't think we had that by the end of 2022. (Check out our won/loss record against the teams that made the playoffs last year. It was bad.) I'm still not optimistic, but I think we are better with Pablo Lopez in our rotation. Also, earlier you listed Lopez as one of the numerous number threes. But of course, before the Arraez trade, he wasn't one of our pitchers.

It depends on what level you want your rotation to compete at. If you’re content with a winning percentage below .500, then a number 3 starter whose career WHIP is over a buck thirty, whose career ERA is above 4.30, like Mahle, would be your cup of tea. On a playoff contender, I’d expect him to be a number 5 starter or long relief at best. Ober and Varland haven’t strung together a number of consistent, solid starts for me to see them as number 3 or better starters on a playoff-caliber team. Before the Lopez deal, we only had two. And frankly, Ryan is still a bit green, but I think he’s promising. The point is to last deep in the playoffs. The point is to end the string of playoff losses.

I understand. It’s the word full that I object to. We had only a pair of guys who are #3 or better. Barring a major comeback from Paddack or Maeda, we were very thin at #3 or better. The Twins’ greatest need was a quality starter. This trade improved our chances for having a competitive rotation.

Respectfully, I think you overrate the rotation before the deal was made. We don't know that Maeda or Paddack will come back from injury and pitch well enough to be close to front-end starters. I certainly don't put Mahle or Ober toward the front of our rotation. If the point is to last deep in the playoffs, I don't see the Twins currently as having pitching the matches up well enough with the ace or 2nd starter of most playoff teams. Put another way, look at the rotations for teams that made it to the LCS of either league last year. Do you see Sonny Gray or Joe Ryan (and I like them both, and root for them) as better than the top two pitchers for HOU, PHI, NYY or SDP? Maybe with a good year one of them could be a number 2 or 3 starter on a playoff caliber team. Before this deal, we had two guys who are solid number three playoff-caliber starters. And behind that a collection of 4th and 5th options. I don't know that Pablo Lopez will be a front-end starter for us, but at this point he's certainly a candidate, and we're now deeper in front-end options than we were. My hunch (and it's only that) is that there weren't many teams willing to deal away front-end talent. We got what was available. Good luck to Arraez! I'll root for him (until he plays the Twins). But he turned down the contract offer before, and preferred arbitration this winter; clearly seemed ready to move on when he could, and we parlayed his talent into the best starting pitching talent the FO could find. In nine months' time, toward the end of the season, we'll know if the gamble this deal represents is paying off in the short-term. Right now, I think it was worth the risk. p.s. MLB.com has put out its list of top 10 prospects for both LHP and RHP. We don't have guy on either list.

That was why I wrote "a package including." Yes, the devil-in-the-details would be what prospects had to be packaged with Arraez. Yet our veteran roster indicates the Twins are in win-now mode, as did this deal. And Arraez's ability to put the ball in play and get on base is no small asset either. As a fan, I like him, but my understanding is that he hasn't been interested in a long-term deal in Minnesota, so it's a matter of what talent we might get for him now.

Doesn’t address our primary need, the front of the rotation, but sure makes the infield look better. I wonder if a package including Arraez might get us an ace.

First, nice post. Thoughtful and well done. Second, this is speculative and probably lots will disagree, but there have been situations in my life where I had strengths and weaknesses and was forced to work on the weaknesses. It was difficult, but ultimately the work put in made me better overall, when I could return to what came easier for me. Is it possible that, because David Ortiz was made to try to hit to all fields, he was a better hitter when allowed to return to his strength?

Now, be careful dere, fella. I hear dat buy-a-vowel Hrbek is quite de sportsman, too. Sometimes dat Bud Grant comes by vid some venison, also, you betcha.

Man, the Twins' rotation would look so much better with a legitimate ace. Give the young pitching a chance to develop behind guys like Rodon, Gray, perhaps even Maeda if he has anything left. The jump to the bigs is stressful enough. Let them work their way into the rotation the way Johann Santana did years ago rather than getting thrown into the fire the way they have been so often since. (Hello, Vance Worley, you're our Opening Day starter! Yeah, that sure went well...)

Carlos claims he likes Minnesota. Carlos says he'd prefer to stay. But does he understand us in our deep winter non-title-winning blues? If we offer him a hockey stick decoupaged with $10 bills, sitting in a trashcan full, completely full, brothers, with $20 bills, which he can whack to his hearts' delight, to signal his joy (or which pitch is coming) will he grok the full Minnesota experience?

I don't think the difference in success between the Twins and the Braves has much to do with the length of contracts for everyday players. In the 2021 postseason, Atlanta got 27.2 IP from Max Fried with a 1.19 WHIP and three quality starts. Ian Anderson had an 0.94 WHIP and 1.59 ERA in 17 IP. Tyler Matzek in 13 games had an 0.89 WHIP and 1.72 ERA. And so on. This year, Fried had 21 QS in 30 starts, a 1.01 WHIP, a 2.48 ERA with a 5.9 WAR. Charlie Morton had 205 K's in 172 IP. Spencer Strider in 131.2 IP had a 0.99 WHIP, good enough for a WAR of 3.7. I know counting wins isn't considered fashionable anymore, but Kyle Wright had a 21-5 record as a starter, 1.16 WHIP, good enough for a 3.6 WAR. I could spout more stats, and I don't think the Twins' injury issues can be over-stated, but I do think the main difference between the Braves now contending to be the first repeat world series champs this century (I'm old school, and count 2000 as the last year of the 20th century) is they have a legit front end of the rotation. Plus a solid bullpen (e.g., 4th best ERA in MLB.) No knock on Ryan and Gray. I like 'em both. But we need a horse at the front of the rotation. At this point, pondering the lengths of everyday player contracts is just re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. If the Twins had an ace in front of Gray and Ryan, and could stay healthy, we could have fans of other teams looking at the Twins and wishing they could duplicate Minnesota's success, rather than looking at Atlanta and wishing we had what they have.

Would this mean position players are not allowed to pitch? So guys like Nick Gordon aren't allowed to fill in during laughers? If position players are not allowed to pitch, what happens to Ohtani?

Good stuff. You had me up until the Mets. Go Padres & Mariners, beyond that, we want the Tribe Guardian colors in LulaRoe patterns.

This is one of the most interesting aspects of how baseball has changed in the sabrmetric era. Made all the more interesting as a Twins fan, somewhat chagrined by David Ortiz's post-Twins success as he complained about the Twins trying to get him to hit to all fields. The Twins did have some success with that approach for decades, right? Has analytics' technical approach to pitch selection, coupled with the shift, made it that much harder for the best athletes to hit to all fields? Because hitting never really did catch up to the shift this century, did it? Interesting, too, that the shift dates back to Ted Williams, but never gained wider traction. Were hitters in the last half of the 20th century better at hitting to all fields? p.s. I'd love to see Maddon manage the Twins, too. It would bring back some color.

This really puts a fine point on it. Because if the suits had made this decision, Gibson never hobbles to the plate and baseball is robbed of one of its greatest moments of the last half century. SABRmetrics gains traction after the Lewis book on Beane purports to find under-valued approaches to compete with the higher bankrolls. Except it never translated to playoff success. The A's have been so playoff bad their failure rivals that of the Twins. In fact, the only times this century either team has won, they played each other: Someone had to win. Talent still wins games, and teams with deep pockets to retain talent like NYY and LAD are regular playoff teams. The game remains stacked. LA acquired David Price and his $217M contract and this year only have 40 IP in relief to show for it. They signed Bauer to $102M and he hasn't pitched for over a year (I understand they got out from under it). A team like KC or Seattle or P'burgh throws money around like that with nothing to show for it, and their fans would howl. LA doesn't blink. They acquire proven talent from elsewhere in Betts, Trea Turner, Freeman and give them the kind of long-term contract Correa wants. They tossed Justin Turner $34M to DH for them with his 13 HR. Who cares? They're so deep in talent no one minds, LA fans tune in, and the money pours in. I'm not saying there is no value to analytics--far from it. It has benefited pitching and defense. But its importance has been over-emphasized against talent, even as it has deadened the game and drained it of color.

I think we are pretty much in agreement. Elsewhere, I've written about Falvey, brought to Minnesota as the guru of developing an ALCS-winning pitching staff. and after his years now of heading this organization, holding him accountable for the Twins pitching he envisions leading the team into the playoffs and winning. To my mind, this is the question now for the hot stove league. But I'm not gloomy--however ghastly the results have been during the dog days. This team is deep. This team has talent. Even fungible talent, valuable in bartering. Yes, Lucy, I trust you. Just set the football down, and I'll run forward and kick it.

Through their first nine games head-to-head this year, the Twins beat Cleveland five times. Each of the Guardians’ four wins was by one run. The Twins had well-documented struggles against teams with better records at that point. But that the Twins had outscored Cleveland 52-33 at that stage gave me (foolish?) optimism for the rest of the season. The Cleveland games now seem a bellwether for this season, where the Twins once were 11 games over .500, before falling flat. With two games left against Cleveland (and Ryan and Gray starting), the Twins have still outscored them 82-78. While the season series stands at 5-12. We have lost to them by a single run eight times. Two runs twice. Once by three, once by four. In 12 losses, never by five or more. Injuries no doubt played a part in this season’s disappointments. Plus not enough quality arms. But the feast-or-famine Twins offense played a part, too. I'm just foolish enough to look at the talent on this team, and the youth, and believe that if they add the right arms, in the off-season ... Sure Lucy, hold the football. I believe it will be there when I run forward to kick it.

I agree. Balazovic has a long way to go to show he has the kind of consistency a winning MLB team needs. You can even see this in his rookie league A stats. He certainly put up some excellent numbers his first season in 2016, 1.97 ERA, 0.969 WHIP, but what happened in his 40 innings the next year (also Gulf league) where he jumped to 4.91 and a surprising WHIP of 1.661? That's a lot of rookie league baserunners. Yes, I'll cut him some slack for being a teenager, younger than most of the guys he faced. And his stats in single A are very promising. But it's worth noting that in Wichita last year over 97 IP in 20 starts his WHIP was 1.402. Even trying to be charitable, as he was 2.7 years younger than the league average, that to me indicates he had a lot of good days and bad. Sadly, the Twins already have a lot of pitchers who mix good and bad days. I hope Jordan allays these concerns, as he matures, and he develops the kind of consistency the front of a winning rotation needs. On a brighter note, Johan Santana struggled quite a bit in the minors, too. And he matured into a model of consistency, so I'm not without hope.