Muppet

So. Welcome to my first post. I screwed up the spreadsheet. Here's the real deal. (And I added runs generated by plate appearance too). The above numbers show runs by at bat instead of also incorporating RBIs. ab pa h r hr rbi rg ab/rg pa/rg obp w 2o ba/risp Michael Taylor 414 456 105 49 9 43 83 4.988 5.494 0.294 0.234 Joey Gallo 350 410 56 48 19 47 76 4.605 5.395 0.360 0.165 Max Kepler 388 446 88 54 9 43 88 4.409 5.068 0.339 0.196 Byron Buxton 340 382 76 61 28 51 84 4.048 4.548 0.277 0.145 Looks like Kepler was a little bit better at generating runs than the other weak hitters, but not by much. Both Gallo and Taylor are still probably comparable replacements for Kepler with a little upside with 2 outs or RISP... both of which are needed upgrades.

After scratching welts in my head trying to figure out how Taylor and Gallo are supposed to make this team better with their terrible offence as potential replacements for Kepler, I figured that I'd look into the numbers to see if I could sort anything out. I'm apparently of the minority opinion that offence was a larger problem than pitching last year. Yes the pitching was terrible, but what does it matter if the bullpen gives up 5 runs if your team can only manage to score 2 or 3? In that sense, imagining that Taylor and Gallo will be Kepler replacements in the event of a trade, I thought I'd see if they actually can add a bit more offence. Here's what I find from their 2022 splits (RG is runs generated, or R + RBI - HR; and : ab/rg is the average number of at bats per run generated... e.g. Taylor averaged 8.4 at bats per run). ab h r hr rbi rg ab/rg obp w 2o ba/risp Michael A Taylor 414 105 49 9 43 83 8.449 0.294 0.234 Joey Gallo 350 56 48 19 47 76 7.292 0.360 0.165 Max Kepler 388 88 54 9 43 88 7.185 0.339 0.196 Byron Buxton 340 76 61 28 51 84 5.574 0.277 0.145 A couple of things stand out. It is probably not surprising that Kepler was slightly better in generating runs than Gallo and Taylor (but not by much). What IS interesting is that despite Gallo's terrible numbers, he WAS effective in getting on base with two outs. This is important as, although he might not hit well, he WAS able to effectively prevent the inning from ending when it was on the line. Kepler wasn't that bad in that area either. Though not great numbers, Taylor was better than terrible with batting average with runners in scoring position, good enough that it is probably a significant difference. This is a great improvement over all the other OFs (that I listed). Also notable is that all OFs were better than Buxton with 2 outs or RISP. I've been wondering why the Twins would trade off Kepler and replace him with OFs that were good at defense but even worse hitters. These numbers put me a little more at ease if we do deal off the Kepler. I still think the offense stinks. But so did the offense of the 1988 Dodgers. There's no denying that great defense makes pitching (numbers) better. Onward to 2023.

Clearly the strategy is to prevent runs from scoring at the expense of scoring any runs whatsoever. Sounds boring, but let’s hope it works.

Everybody wants a true ace on the staff. And who wouldn't want a John Smoltz or Randy Johnson as the number one guy. But I think knowing that they aren't a rich team (relatively) that they are instead trying to avoid a staff that has any Nick Blackburns or Randy Nolascos. A solid staff made up of all #2 or #3s is more resilient and gets more wins than a staff with a solid #1 that also has 2 or 3 terrible arms. Might be cheaper in the long run too. I don't know how they plan to manage their strategy of only allowing starters 80 pitches/5 innings without a solid bullpen that is also similarly stacked. I'm hoping that is the new trainor's job.

Larnach had an absolute cannon on him. People didn't run for a reason.

Yes. But assuming Larnach is able to play and Kepler is still on the team, I'd prefer to see Gallo on the bench.

Glad I haven’t seen Gallo on anyone’s list. I’m betting it’s gonna be Gallo.

I’d add to that that only Arraez and (gulp) Gordon were the only ones that showed that they could hit. The rest are all just potential (even Buxton). Let’s just hope they all break out next year. That’s the only way the twins are a winning team.

But if Gallo’s 30 hits next year, 15 of them will be home runs. Arraez only hit 9 last year and 15 is more than 9. That math works right?

Changed my mind. This is a good deal. Since Arraez is most valuable when hitting with runners in scoring position, it was unlikely that he would make an impact on the Twins as they would rarely have runners in scoring position when he is at bat. Nor would they have anyone who might drive him in when he's on second.

The way things have been going, that is likely to be Arraez hitting .330 for the Mariners and Lopez spending 75% of the year on the IL.

The best pitchers in the league will still lose games if their team can't score any runs. Last year the Twins were bad at pitching, which overshadowed the terrible hitting. They have not made themselves any better in the offseason. We can now be sure that Arraez will be a HOFer.

Gordon and Arraez are the two best hitters with runners in scoring position. Maybe we should trade them both for as good of pitchers as we can get. We'll need all the pitching in the world if we can't score any runs.

None of this is wrong (that is to say, you're right), but is a matter of what and where you're looking. I see one player (Kepler) who has peaked and is on his way down. Gordon has always had a lot of promise and is starting to heat up. I would expect him to perform better offensively next year (maybe that's unfair). I also see him as someone who is extremely flexible. I stunk in the infield, so... moved to outfield and he is serviceable. He does make terrible plays, but I think he'll continue to learn from mistakes and straighten up a bit. Certainly Kepler's glove and arm are top notch, but I think this team loses games because they don't score runs more than anything else. Even when their pitching stinks, they still aren't scoring runs anyway. By the end of the season, Gordon was one of the few people who you'd feel comfortable coming to bat in a close game, or with a runner on. I like that we have stats on almost everything, but they can be misleading. For example, comparing OPS+ over a career of 8 years vs a career of 2 years doesn't quite work out. That said, two years also isn't really enough to project the future either. And I think with players like Kepler and Gordon, past performances aren't necessarily indicative of future performance. But I think Gordon is exciting, already good, and getting better despite his defensive flaws... which hopefully go away to some extent. When I see Kepler coming up in the inning, I just think automatic out. Especially if there is someone on base. But hold my beer, Gallo is FAR worse (though I'll take those few homeruns when they do happen).

Just like Arraez, nobody will ever respect Gordon until he wins a batting championship. Even then we'll find something to complain about. He's better off getting traded to a team that will appreciate him. Sucks that Gallo is the replacement for Kepler. If anyone can actually provide less offense than Kepler, we found him.

Keep one or two of the healthy ones on the roster. Replace out with Polanco next year. Trade the others.

I’d say 3 years for 40 million. If he’s still not injured, he can shoot for his big(ger) payday with some NY team.

I think Gallo was signed to be part of a blockbuster multi-player trade that will bring over Correa from the Giants.

Good thing the twins had a plan E

As I mostly "watch" baseball by way of blue and red dots that appear in or near a square drawn next to a cartoon batter, I can't really see defensive plays happen. "In Play, Out(s)" can imply a fantastic diving summersault and throw to first, or a pop up. That said, the smell test of trading in our (likely) two best infield defenders for two that appear to be... bad, it doesn't look good. Miranda, Farmer, and Polanco will probably be letting a lot of balls through to the outfield this year.

I'd go to more than twice the number of games I go to if they dropped the ticket price by 50%.

Bah... it sucks, but I'm already over it. I would have been pissed if they gave him that much. Correa is good. Really good, but not great. I always wondered if they'd be better off with 2 or 3 above average players (or better than Polanco, Larnach, Kepler, etc..) than with Correa, and save a ton of money to boot. This team will only succeed if a large number of their players have great years. With or without Correa. Last year the opposite happened. If Buxton plays, and he, Larnach, AK, Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Miranda, all combined with a batting average of .275 or higher... this team wouldn't need Correa. If they continue to fail to hit, Correa won't make a difference anyway. I'm a little more bummed that now they don't have Urshela.

I'll put money on 2022 being Correa's last year with solid numbers.

If I ever see a Christian Dior store I’ll just go in and pretend I can afford whatever I want.

Yea. For some reason, like Areaez, everyone will try to find reasons why Gordon is no good. Meanwhile his numbers get better and better.