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Now, more than ever before, baseball fans have all of the numbers in the world at their fingertips in order to reflect on what has happened in the past as well as project what will happen in the future. Let’s discuss what the projections say about the Minnesota Twins statistical leaders in 2020.Earlier this week Fangraphs released their annual ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins for the 2020 season. ZiPS is a projection system developed by Dan Szymborski which uses growth and decline curves determined by age and past performance to project how a given player will perform the following season. ZiPS is widely regarded as being one of the most accurate projection systems we have in baseball. Download attachment: 2020 zips.png Above you can see the fWAR totals for each Minnesota Twins player in 2020 as projected by ZiPS. As you can see, ZiPS projects Josh Donaldson to lead all Twins position players in 2020 with 4.3 fWAR and José Berríos to lead all pitchers with 3.2 fWAR. Now let’s see how ZiPS projects the statistical leaders for the Twins in 2020. Batting Average: Luis Arráez | .309 Arráez was a revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2020, joining the club in 2019 at the age of 22 and hitting .334 in 92 games. Regression has to be in order for Venezuelan in 2020 after such an incredible start to his career, right? ZiPS doesn’t seem to think so. According to their projection system, Arráez still figures to be a hitting machine, leading the team in batting average. On-base Percentage: Josh Donaldson | .373 Josh Donaldson does a lot of things well, but one of his best traits is his ability to get on base. In 2019, Josh Donaldson finished in the top-20 in major league baseball with a .379 on-base percentage thanks to his taking of 100 walks. ZiPS projects Donaldson to do much of the same in 2020, which lends itself well to the heart of the Minnesota Twins batting order being able to knock in lots of runs. Home Runs: Miguel Sanó | 35 From August 1 through the end of the 2019 season, Miguel Sanó led the Minnesota Twins with 16 home huns. ZiPS projects Sanó to pick up where he left off and lead the Twins in bombas for the 2020 season with 35. After signing a four-year extension this winter, leading the team in home runs in 2020 would certainly make that deal look like more of a bargain than it already does. ERA (Starter): Rich Hill | 3.59 While Rich Hill won’t join the Minnesota Twins until June, at best, ZiPS projects that he will make a huge impact to the team when he does, leading the team with a 3.59 ERA. ZiPS relies a lot on past performance in making their projections, so this projection isn’t much of a surprise seeing as how Hill hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 3.70 since 2013. ERA (Reliever): Taylor Rogers | 3.09 Taylor Rogers was undoubtedly the Minnesota Twins best relief pitcher in 2019, and ZiPS projects more of the same in 2020 with him leading all relievers on the team next year with a 3.09 ERA. While the Minnesota Twins bullpen is as deep of a bullpen as you can find in baseball, Rogers is what makes the group go. If he can continue to contribute as he has the past couple of years, great things should be in store for the Twins’ relief corps in 2020. Strikeouts: Jose Berríos | 193 José Berríos set a career high and led the Minnesota Twins with 195 strikeouts in 2019. ZiPS projects Berríos to have another strikeout-filled year in 2020 with 193 punch outs. While ZiPS is projecting his ERA to balloon to a 4.17 next year, if he can put up 193 strikeouts next year, he has Cy Young potential heading into the 2020 season. What do you think of the ZiPS projections discussed above? Do you think Szymborski did a good job predicting who will be the Twins’ statistical leaders in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. RIP Kobe Bryant MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Projected Minnesota Twins 2020 Statistical Leaders Per ZiPS
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
Earlier this week Fangraphs released their annual ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins for the 2020 season. ZiPS is a projection system developed by Dan Szymborski which uses growth and decline curves determined by age and past performance to project how a given player will perform the following season. ZiPS is widely regarded as being one of the most accurate projection systems we have in baseball. Above you can see the fWAR totals for each Minnesota Twins player in 2020 as projected by ZiPS. As you can see, ZiPS projects Josh Donaldson to lead all Twins position players in 2020 with 4.3 fWAR and José Berríos to lead all pitchers with 3.2 fWAR. Now let’s see how ZiPS projects the statistical leaders for the Twins in 2020. Batting Average: Luis Arráez | .309 Arráez was a revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2020, joining the club in 2019 at the age of 22 and hitting .334 in 92 games. Regression has to be in order for Venezuelan in 2020 after such an incredible start to his career, right? ZiPS doesn’t seem to think so. According to their projection system, Arráez still figures to be a hitting machine, leading the team in batting average. On-base Percentage: Josh Donaldson | .373 Josh Donaldson does a lot of things well, but one of his best traits is his ability to get on base. In 2019, Josh Donaldson finished in the top-20 in major league baseball with a .379 on-base percentage thanks to his taking of 100 walks. ZiPS projects Donaldson to do much of the same in 2020, which lends itself well to the heart of the Minnesota Twins batting order being able to knock in lots of runs. Home Runs: Miguel Sanó | 35 From August 1 through the end of the 2019 season, Miguel Sanó led the Minnesota Twins with 16 home huns. ZiPS projects Sanó to pick up where he left off and lead the Twins in bombas for the 2020 season with 35. After signing a four-year extension this winter, leading the team in home runs in 2020 would certainly make that deal look like more of a bargain than it already does. ERA (Starter): Rich Hill | 3.59 While Rich Hill won’t join the Minnesota Twins until June, at best, ZiPS projects that he will make a huge impact to the team when he does, leading the team with a 3.59 ERA. ZiPS relies a lot on past performance in making their projections, so this projection isn’t much of a surprise seeing as how Hill hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 3.70 since 2013. ERA (Reliever): Taylor Rogers | 3.09 Taylor Rogers was undoubtedly the Minnesota Twins best relief pitcher in 2019, and ZiPS projects more of the same in 2020 with him leading all relievers on the team next year with a 3.09 ERA. While the Minnesota Twins bullpen is as deep of a bullpen as you can find in baseball, Rogers is what makes the group go. If he can continue to contribute as he has the past couple of years, great things should be in store for the Twins’ relief corps in 2020. Strikeouts: Jose Berríos | 193 José Berríos set a career high and led the Minnesota Twins with 195 strikeouts in 2019. ZiPS projects Berríos to have another strikeout-filled year in 2020 with 193 punch outs. While ZiPS is projecting his ERA to balloon to a 4.17 next year, if he can put up 193 strikeouts next year, he has Cy Young potential heading into the 2020 season. What do you think of the ZiPS projections discussed above? Do you think Szymborski did a good job predicting who will be the Twins’ statistical leaders in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. RIP Kobe Bryant MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email -
4 Options for Twins' Final Bench Spot
Matthew Taylor replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yep, you are correct. -
With Josh Donaldson in the fold, the Twins’ starting nine is set. Figuring out the bench is a little trickier. Alex Avila, Ehire Adrianza and Marwin Gonzalez are locks, but who will take the final bench spot and be the 26th man?On this week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, John and Aaron gave their thoughts on who they think should take the final bench spot. After reading this article, I’d definitely recommend giving this episode a listen if you haven’t already. When it comes to the final spot on the bench, the Minnesota Twins have what I believe to be four options. In this article I will lay out the case for each of these options and opine what I think the Twins should do. Internal Options: 1. Jake Cave The case for: Cave represents continuity as he appeared in 72 games for Minnesota in 2019 after Buxton’s shoulder injury forced Kepler to move to center field and Cave to fill his spot in right field. At the dish, Cave performed better than anyone could’ve asked, posting an .805 OPS in 228 PAs. Compared to 2018, Cave improved his K%, BB%, and chase % in 2019. Cave is only 27 years old and could still have room to improve if given the opportunity. The case against: A big strike against Cave is that he, like Rosario and Kepler, is left handed. His left handedness means that he isn’t much of a pinch hit candidate for the Twins and he wouldn’t be called upon to start unless there was a rest or injury situation. Additionally, Cave does not represent much insurance in the field. Last year Cave consistently misplayed balls off the wall, misjudged dives, and took poor angles. Option 2: Willians Astudillo The case for: Astudillo played six different positions in 2019 and offers the Twins a ton of defensive flexibility including the ability to carry a third catcher. This would mostly come into play on Garver’s off days. Astudillo would allow the Twins to pinch hit Avila’s spot against right-handed pitchers without forcing Garver to put his catcher’s gear on. Astudillo is also an extreme contact hitter who could be called upon to pinch hit in opportunities where the Twins simply need a contact play. The case against: La Tortuga was not good at the plate in 2019, posting a .299 OBP and .678 OPS. Having a third catcher is handy, but Astudillo is no wizard behind the plate, so I can’t see Minnesota putting themselves in too many situations where they will need to call upon Astudillo to catch. External Options: Option 3: Kevin Pillar The case for: Pillar had his best season in the big leagues at the plate in 2019, posting a career best .719 OPS with 21 home runs and 88 RBI. Pillar being a right -hander makes him much more valuable, as he posted a 105 wRC+ in 2019 with a .823 OPS against left-handed pitching. Spending his entire career as a solid center fielder, Pillar would be able to fill in at center field should Buxton get injured in 2020, allowing Kepler to stay in right field where he is a borderline Gold Glover. The case against: Acquiring Pillar would require dropping someone from the 40-man roster, where the Twins don’t have a ton of wiggle room right now. Additionally, being just 31 years old and coming off his best offensive season, it’s not a slam dunk that Pillar would be willing to sign with a team as a fifth outfielder. Option 4: Jarrod Dyson The case for: Jerrod Dyson was an excellent center fielder for Arizona in 2019 when he was worth 5 DRS, 5.3 UZR/150 and six outs above average. Additionally he is a speedster, with what would be the second highest sprint speed on the Twins after Byron Buxton. Dyson represents a guy who could fill in admirably in the field for Buxton in the case of injury and also be called upon as a pinch runner late in games. The case against: Dyson was not good at the plate in 2019, posting just a .633 OPS with a 19 K%. Dyson hasn’t had a season with an OPS over .700 since 2016. While his speed and defense are helpful, he is such a poor hitter that I’m not sure he makes sense as a bench guy, especially as he is also a left handed hitter. Given all of the options my preference would be for the Minnesota Twins to go out and sign Kevin Pillar as their 26th man. Having an above average right-handed bat to occasionally start and pinch hit against left-handed pitching while providing capable center field defense is an enticing proposition for the Twins. If Pillar is not willing to join the Twins, I think they should roll with Cave who hit really well for the Twins last year, is a popular clubhouse guy, and wouldn’t require any 40-man roster moves. Who do you think should take the last spot on the bench and be the 26th man for the Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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On this week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, John and Aaron gave their thoughts on who they think should take the final bench spot. After reading this article, I’d definitely recommend giving this episode a listen if you haven’t already. When it comes to the final spot on the bench, the Minnesota Twins have what I believe to be four options. In this article I will lay out the case for each of these options and opine what I think the Twins should do. Internal Options: 1. Jake Cave The case for: Cave represents continuity as he appeared in 72 games for Minnesota in 2019 after Buxton’s shoulder injury forced Kepler to move to center field and Cave to fill his spot in right field. At the dish, Cave performed better than anyone could’ve asked, posting an .805 OPS in 228 PAs. Compared to 2018, Cave improved his K%, BB%, and chase % in 2019. Cave is only 27 years old and could still have room to improve if given the opportunity. The case against: A big strike against Cave is that he, like Rosario and Kepler, is left handed. His left handedness means that he isn’t much of a pinch hit candidate for the Twins and he wouldn’t be called upon to start unless there was a rest or injury situation. Additionally, Cave does not represent much insurance in the field. Last year Cave consistently misplayed balls off the wall, misjudged dives, and took poor angles. Option 2: Willians Astudillo The case for: Astudillo played six different positions in 2019 and offers the Twins a ton of defensive flexibility including the ability to carry a third catcher. This would mostly come into play on Garver’s off days. Astudillo would allow the Twins to pinch hit Avila’s spot against right-handed pitchers without forcing Garver to put his catcher’s gear on. Astudillo is also an extreme contact hitter who could be called upon to pinch hit in opportunities where the Twins simply need a contact play. The case against: La Tortuga was not good at the plate in 2019, posting a .299 OBP and .678 OPS. Having a third catcher is handy, but Astudillo is no wizard behind the plate, so I can’t see Minnesota putting themselves in too many situations where they will need to call upon Astudillo to catch. External Options: Option 3: Kevin Pillar The case for: Pillar had his best season in the big leagues at the plate in 2019, posting a career best .719 OPS with 21 home runs and 88 RBI. Pillar being a right -hander makes him much more valuable, as he posted a 105 wRC+ in 2019 with a .823 OPS against left-handed pitching. Spending his entire career as a solid center fielder, Pillar would be able to fill in at center field should Buxton get injured in 2020, allowing Kepler to stay in right field where he is a borderline Gold Glover. The case against: Acquiring Pillar would require dropping someone from the 40-man roster, where the Twins don’t have a ton of wiggle room right now. Additionally, being just 31 years old and coming off his best offensive season, it’s not a slam dunk that Pillar would be willing to sign with a team as a fifth outfielder. Option 4: Jarrod Dyson The case for: Jerrod Dyson was an excellent center fielder for Arizona in 2019 when he was worth 5 DRS, 5.3 UZR/150 and six outs above average. Additionally he is a speedster, with what would be the second highest sprint speed on the Twins after Byron Buxton. Dyson represents a guy who could fill in admirably in the field for Buxton in the case of injury and also be called upon as a pinch runner late in games. The case against: Dyson was not good at the plate in 2019, posting just a .633 OPS with a 19 K%. Dyson hasn’t had a season with an OPS over .700 since 2016. While his speed and defense are helpful, he is such a poor hitter that I’m not sure he makes sense as a bench guy, especially as he is also a left handed hitter. Given all of the options my preference would be for the Minnesota Twins to go out and sign Kevin Pillar as their 26th man. Having an above average right-handed bat to occasionally start and pinch hit against left-handed pitching while providing capable center field defense is an enticing proposition for the Twins. If Pillar is not willing to join the Twins, I think they should roll with Cave who hit really well for the Twins last year, is a popular clubhouse guy, and wouldn’t require any 40-man roster moves. Who do you think should take the last spot on the bench and be the 26th man for the Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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On the Twins current roster -- 8 players have been acquired via free agency. 5 of those 8 were 34 years or older. 7 of those 8 players were age 32 or older. The only current member of the Twins who was signed as a FA under the age of 32 is Michael Pineda. The young crop of players have all been home grown talent.
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Since the start of last offseason, the Minnesota Twins have acquired six players age 34 and older. Are the Twins missing out on younger players and having to settle for older ones? Or have they perhaps found a market inefficiency in acquiring aging stars?Over the years major league baseball players have been getting significantly younger. According to an article posted in Forbes, from 2007-18 the average age of MLB players has dropped a full year (29.1 down to 28.1). Much of this has been driven by analytics and teams realizing that younger players, in general, contribute more to teams than older players. According to research done by FiveThirtyEight, in 2017, players age 32 and older accounted for 18.6% of plate appearances in the league, while only accounting for 12.9% of league-wide WAR, a percentage that has been consistently declining over the years. With all of this analytical evidence showing that major league baseball is trending younger and teams are shying away from signing older players, why have the Minnesota Twins been pursuing aging stars over the past couple years? What value is there in acquiring these aging stars? By investing in aging players, the Minnesota Twins have gained a tremendous amount of salary cap flexibility. Older players require fewer years on their deals and the Twins have seen this by inking one-year deals to Nelson Cruz (38), Sergio Romo (36), Tyler Clippard (34), Blake Parker (34), and Rich Hill (39) over the past two years. Signing these short term deals has allowed the Twins to keep their future books open so that they can sign extensions to their own players as well as pounce on a long-term deal of their own in Josh Donaldson. While Donaldson represents a 34-year-old getting a longer contract, when compared to the seven year, $245 million contract that was issued to Anthony Rendon, you can again see the potential value in signing an older player. The other value that comes from investing in older players is the experience and leadership that they bring to a ball club. This is something that cannot be quantified but is invaluable to an organization. Nelson Cruz represented this so much for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. In addition to being a mentor for fellow Dominican, Miguel Sanó, Cruz has leaned on his experience to share wisdom with the entire clubhouse. Kyle Gibson recounted a speech that Cruz made after Game 2 of the ALDS saying, “When a guy like that speaks, everybody listens and perks their ears up and takes it in, because he's been in a lot of different situations and maybe some situations that have a lot more pressure than this one.” Similarly, with guys like Sergio Romo, and now Rich Hill and Josh Donaldson, the Twins are adding guys who have been around the block, will never be afraid of the moment, and can share their wisdom and experiences with the entire clubhouse. In order to squeeze maximum production out of their players, the Twins organization has put a ton of money and resources into investing in health, rest and recovery. These measures certainly help older players, who present more of a health risk. From a piece in the Star Tribune, Phil Miller notes that the Twins have done things like push back bus times to the stadium, frequently cancel batting practice and map out regular days off for players. Additionally, according to a Pioneer Press piece, a health initiative has been implemented up and down the Twins organization where sodas were replaced with organic juices and minor leaguers are now being fed healthy, catered meals. Another thing that the Minnesota Twins organization has done to invest in keeping players healthy and prolonging the careers of their aging stars was implementing a nap room last year. The most famous user of this nap room has been 39-year-old, Nelson Cruz. In a quote to the Pioneer Press Cruz said regarding the nap room, “It keeps you more alert. Anything you can do to perform better, you do it. You’ll be able to react better, so definitely that’s a plus for a hitter”. While relying on older players presents a definite risk, the Twins are doing all they can to mitigate that risk by investing in the resources that keep those older players fresh and healthy. Additionally, Rocco Baldelli has shown that he wants to provide players with frequent off days, will have players spend more time on the injured list than may be necessary and overall implementing a team culture where players can feel comfortable speaking up regarding any injury concerns they have. The old “Twins Way” of grinding through injuries has been pushed to the wayside, and rest and recovery has been brought to the forefront so that players can perform to the best of their abilities and their bodies will allow them to do just that. What do you think about the Minnesota Twins recent investment in aging stars? Do you think this is an organizational misstep? Or have the Twins found a market inefficiency that they are now exploiting? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Over the years major league baseball players have been getting significantly younger. According to an article posted in Forbes, from 2007-18 the average age of MLB players has dropped a full year (29.1 down to 28.1). Much of this has been driven by analytics and teams realizing that younger players, in general, contribute more to teams than older players. According to research done by FiveThirtyEight, in 2017, players age 32 and older accounted for 18.6% of plate appearances in the league, while only accounting for 12.9% of league-wide WAR, a percentage that has been consistently declining over the years. With all of this analytical evidence showing that major league baseball is trending younger and teams are shying away from signing older players, why have the Minnesota Twins been pursuing aging stars over the past couple years? What value is there in acquiring these aging stars? By investing in aging players, the Minnesota Twins have gained a tremendous amount of salary cap flexibility. Older players require fewer years on their deals and the Twins have seen this by inking one-year deals to Nelson Cruz (38), Sergio Romo (36), Tyler Clippard (34), Blake Parker (34), and Rich Hill (39) over the past two years. Signing these short term deals has allowed the Twins to keep their future books open so that they can sign extensions to their own players as well as pounce on a long-term deal of their own in Josh Donaldson. While Donaldson represents a 34-year-old getting a longer contract, when compared to the seven year, $245 million contract that was issued to Anthony Rendon, you can again see the potential value in signing an older player. The other value that comes from investing in older players is the experience and leadership that they bring to a ball club. This is something that cannot be quantified but is invaluable to an organization. Nelson Cruz represented this so much for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. In addition to being a mentor for fellow Dominican, Miguel Sanó, Cruz has leaned on his experience to share wisdom with the entire clubhouse. Kyle Gibson recounted a speech that Cruz made after Game 2 of the ALDS saying, “When a guy like that speaks, everybody listens and perks their ears up and takes it in, because he's been in a lot of different situations and maybe some situations that have a lot more pressure than this one.” Similarly, with guys like Sergio Romo, and now Rich Hill and Josh Donaldson, the Twins are adding guys who have been around the block, will never be afraid of the moment, and can share their wisdom and experiences with the entire clubhouse. In order to squeeze maximum production out of their players, the Twins organization has put a ton of money and resources into investing in health, rest and recovery. These measures certainly help older players, who present more of a health risk. From a piece in the Star Tribune, Phil Miller notes that the Twins have done things like push back bus times to the stadium, frequently cancel batting practice and map out regular days off for players. Additionally, according to a Pioneer Press piece, a health initiative has been implemented up and down the Twins organization where sodas were replaced with organic juices and minor leaguers are now being fed healthy, catered meals. Another thing that the Minnesota Twins organization has done to invest in keeping players healthy and prolonging the careers of their aging stars was implementing a nap room last year. The most famous user of this nap room has been 39-year-old, Nelson Cruz. In a quote to the Pioneer Press Cruz said regarding the nap room, “It keeps you more alert. Anything you can do to perform better, you do it. You’ll be able to react better, so definitely that’s a plus for a hitter”. While relying on older players presents a definite risk, the Twins are doing all they can to mitigate that risk by investing in the resources that keep those older players fresh and healthy. Additionally, Rocco Baldelli has shown that he wants to provide players with frequent off days, will have players spend more time on the injured list than may be necessary and overall implementing a team culture where players can feel comfortable speaking up regarding any injury concerns they have. The old “Twins Way” of grinding through injuries has been pushed to the wayside, and rest and recovery has been brought to the forefront so that players can perform to the best of their abilities and their bodies will allow them to do just that. What do you think about the Minnesota Twins recent investment in aging stars? Do you think this is an organizational misstep? Or have the Twins found a market inefficiency that they are now exploiting? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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The Minnesota Twins lineup in 2019 was lethal, hitting more home runs than any other team in major league baseball history. Bringing in a guy like Josh Donaldson only makes this offense more terrifying. How should the lineup look in 2020 and what will Donaldson add to this offense?When building the 2020 Minnesota Twins lineups there are a few different things that you want to keep in mind: Rocco Baldelli has demonstrated how much he wants to split up his lefties and righties throughout his lineups.Generally you want on-base guys at the top, with power in the middle (an easy thing to do when every batter on this team gets on base and has power).With such a deep roster, there’s no wrong way to build this lineup.With that being said, this is how I believe the Minnesota Twins should set up their lineups: Lineup vs RHP Luis Arráez ( L ) - 2BJosh Donaldson ( R ) - 3BMax Kepler ( L ) - RFNelson Cruz ( R ) - DHMiguel Sano ( R ) - 1BJorge Polanco ( S ) - SSMitch Garver ( R ) - CEddie Rosario ( L ) - LFByron Buxton ( R ) - CFThis lineup sets up so that no more than two right-handers will hit back-to-back. Arráez makes a lot of sense to hit leadoff against right-handers, off whom he got on base 40% of the time with an OPS of .887. Donaldson has spent 45% of his career plate appearances in the #2 spot of the lineup so keeping him there and moving Polanco’s flexible handedness bat down the lineup makes a lot of sense. Lineup vs LHP Mitch Garver ( R ) - CJorge Polanco ( S ) - SSNelson Cruz ( R ) - DHJosh Donaldson ( R ) - 3BMax Kepler ( L ) - RFMiguel Sano ( R ) - 1BEddie Rosario ( L ) - LFByron Buxton ( R ) - CFLuis Arraez ( L ) - 2BThe #1 spot was actually Garver’s most common spot in the lineup in 2019, where Baldelli often placed him against left-handed pitchers. Against left-handers in 2019, Garver got on base 43% of the time with a 1.170 (!!) OPS. Against lefties I think it’s best to have Arráez in the #9 spot. He only slugged .298 against lefties in 2019, but still got on base at a 40% clip which lends itself well in moving back to the top of the order with runners on base. Here we have Donaldson hitting cleanup to cap off a potential of four straight right handers who mash lefties, with Polanco having the versatility to break up the run of righties should we get later in ball games and left- handed pitchers come in. While these batting order exercises are fun, the reality is that these are going to change on a game-to-game basis. In 2019, the Minnesota Twins used 145 different batting orders with their most common batting order only being used in seven games. What this exercise does show us, though, is just how talented and deep Josh Donaldson makes the Minnesota Twins lineup. To further demonstrate how impactful the Donaldson signing is, I thought it would be fun to end this article by highlighting 5 things that Josh Donaldson did better in 2019 than any of his new teammates: Had a better BB% (15.2%)Had a higher K looking % (as opposed to going down swinging)Had a higher exit velocity on breaking balls (90.6)Got to a 3-1 count in a higher percentage of PAs (14%)He was unlucky — had a greater difference between BA and xBA (-.010)Bottom line — this is going to be fun. What do you think about the suggested batting lineups above? How would you lay out your batting order in 2020 if you were Baldelli? What areas do you think Donaldson will most improve the Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE JOSH DONALDSON CONTENT — FEINSAND: Twins to Sign Josh Donaldson — Josh Donaldson, Bringer of Rings — What’s Next for the Twins After Signing Josh Donaldson? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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When building the 2020 Minnesota Twins lineups there are a few different things that you want to keep in mind: Rocco Baldelli has demonstrated how much he wants to split up his lefties and righties throughout his lineups. Generally you want on-base guys at the top, with power in the middle (an easy thing to do when every batter on this team gets on base and has power). With such a deep roster, there’s no wrong way to build this lineup. With that being said, this is how I believe the Minnesota Twins should set up their lineups: Lineup vs RHP Luis Arráez ( L ) - 2B Josh Donaldson ( R ) - 3B Max Kepler ( L ) - RF Nelson Cruz ( R ) - DH Miguel Sano ( R ) - 1B Jorge Polanco ( S ) - SS Mitch Garver ( R ) - C Eddie Rosario ( L ) - LF Byron Buxton ( R ) - CF This lineup sets up so that no more than two right-handers will hit back-to-back. Arráez makes a lot of sense to hit leadoff against right-handers, off whom he got on base 40% of the time with an OPS of .887. Donaldson has spent 45% of his career plate appearances in the #2 spot of the lineup so keeping him there and moving Polanco’s flexible handedness bat down the lineup makes a lot of sense. Lineup vs LHP Mitch Garver ( R ) - C Jorge Polanco ( S ) - SS Nelson Cruz ( R ) - DH Josh Donaldson ( R ) - 3B Max Kepler ( L ) - RF Miguel Sano ( R ) - 1B Eddie Rosario ( L ) - LF Byron Buxton ( R ) - CF Luis Arraez ( L ) - 2B The #1 spot was actually Garver’s most common spot in the lineup in 2019, where Baldelli often placed him against left-handed pitchers. Against left-handers in 2019, Garver got on base 43% of the time with a 1.170 (!!) OPS. Against lefties I think it’s best to have Arráez in the #9 spot. He only slugged .298 against lefties in 2019, but still got on base at a 40% clip which lends itself well in moving back to the top of the order with runners on base. Here we have Donaldson hitting cleanup to cap off a potential of four straight right handers who mash lefties, with Polanco having the versatility to break up the run of righties should we get later in ball games and left- handed pitchers come in. While these batting order exercises are fun, the reality is that these are going to change on a game-to-game basis. In 2019, the Minnesota Twins used 145 different batting orders with their most common batting order only being used in seven games. What this exercise does show us, though, is just how talented and deep Josh Donaldson makes the Minnesota Twins lineup. To further demonstrate how impactful the Donaldson signing is, I thought it would be fun to end this article by highlighting 5 things that Josh Donaldson did better in 2019 than any of his new teammates: Had a better BB% (15.2%) Had a higher K looking % (as opposed to going down swinging) Had a higher exit velocity on breaking balls (90.6) Got to a 3-1 count in a higher percentage of PAs (14%) He was unlucky — had a greater difference between BA and xBA (-.010) Bottom line — this is going to be fun. What do you think about the suggested batting lineups above? How would you lay out your batting order in 2020 if you were Baldelli? What areas do you think Donaldson will most improve the Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE JOSH DONALDSON CONTENT — FEINSAND: Twins to Sign Josh Donaldson — Josh Donaldson, Bringer of Rings — What’s Next for the Twins After Signing Josh Donaldson? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Your points re: Arraez are fair. I'd argue that there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about him as a long term staple of this team, though. His near 30% line drive rate and excellent plate discipline (2.8% whiff rate and 27% chase rate) show that his 2019 was no fluke. The defense is the biggest knock against Arraez. We'll see how that progresses (or regresses) in 2020.
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The Vikings did what the Vikings do and were knocked out of the NFL playoffs on Saturday. While their loss was extremely disappointing for Minnesotans everywhere, it did offer one piece of excitement — baseball season is officially here.Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers exactly one month from today and there is a lot to be excited about. Here are 10 reasons to be excited about the Minnesota Twins in 2020: 1. The Bomba Squad is back After breaking the MLB record for home runs in a season in 2019, the Minnesota Twins retained all but two of their key batters (Cron and Schoop) — bringing back 244 of their 307 home runs from 2019. You should expect more bombas and more excitement as the Bomba Squad will be getting their encore in 2020. 2. Year 2 of Rocco Baldelli Coming off of a season where he won Manager of the Year and pushed a lot of the right buttons in 2019, Baldelli will now be coming into 2020 with a year of experience under his belt. His bullpen usage was questioned by many, but he is beloved by the clubhouse and his experience should serve him well in 2020. 3. Byron Buxton is healthy After spending 72 days on the injured list and getting shoulder surgery this past September, Buxton should finally be healthy again to start the 2020 season. After posting an .827 OPS in 87 games to start the year, Buxton was finally breaking out as the player who we all hoped that he could be as he topped the Twins’ prospect list for years. Now healthy in 2020, he should be one of the centerpieces of this team. 4. José Berríos in his age 26 season I wrote last week about how history shows that 26 is the age that pitchers will typically reach peak velocity and strikeout age as they enter into their late 20s. Berríos has been a very solid pitcher up to this point, but there is plenty of reason to believe that he could have ace potential in 2020. Can he put up the same production in September that he puts up in April? That will be the million dollar question. 5. Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda are back While the front office still hasn’t come through on their promise of bringing in “impact pitching” this offseason, the two biggest moves they have made this offseason have been bringing back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda on excellent contracts. Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 who posted a career best 4.3 fWAR and Pineda who was outstanding for the Twins down the stretch last year with his 2.96 ERA over his final 14 starts. To bring back these two starters along with Berríos next season should provide the Twins will solid top end pitching again next season. 6. The Twins’ bullpen has potential to be excellent In 2019 the Twins bullpen finished second in the baseball in fWAR, and from August 1 through the end of the season no bullpen had a better FIP than that of the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will be bringing back all of their core pieces from 2019, in addition to the veteran right-hander Tyler Clippard. 7. A full season of Luis Arráez Luis Arráez was an unexpected revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. After getting the call to the majors in May, Arráez never relinquished his spot on the 25-man roster. Instead, he flourished with the Twins to the tune of a .334 batting average and .838 OPS in 92 games with the Twins. The most disappointing thing about Arráez’s 2019 season was that he wasn’t called up to the club sooner. Being able to count on Arráez for a full season is just another reason to be excited about this ball club next in 2020. 8. Prospects will get a chance to shine One of the most exciting things about the 2019 season for the Minnesota Twins was getting to see all of the prospects who were called up and contributed to the team. Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Cody Stashak, Brusdar Graterol and Luis Arráez, among others, all put a memorable stamp on the 2019 season for Minnesota. We should see a similar number of prospects coming up this season that are ready to contribute as well. I would expect Jhoan Duran, Travis Blankenhorn, Brent Rooker, Luke Raley and Nick Gordon to join the team in 2020 as well as potentially the long-awaited debut of Alex Kirilloff. 9. Opportunities to improve the team are out there Twins Nation has understandably been frustrated with the front office and their lack of impact moves so far this offseason. Even still, the Twins have plenty of opportunity at hand to improve their team before the season or at the trade deadline. Minnesota has the financial flexibility to take on contracts as well as the prospect capital to go after whatever player interests them on the trade market. The roster the Twins bring into spring training might not be the roster they have come September or October. 10. This team is REALLY good Finally, lest we all forget, this team is REALLY good. The Twins won 101 games last season and a +185 run differential, good for fourth-best in all of baseball. They led major league baseball in 2019 in home runs and were top five in baseball in doubles, SLG, OPS and wRC+. They have a formidable starting rotation (albeit without an “impact arm”) and a potentially great bullpen. This team will be good in 2020, and we should all be really excited about baseball season finally arriving. Why are you excited about the Minnesota Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers exactly one month from today and there is a lot to be excited about. Here are 10 reasons to be excited about the Minnesota Twins in 2020: 1. The Bomba Squad is back After breaking the MLB record for home runs in a season in 2019, the Minnesota Twins retained all but two of their key batters (Cron and Schoop) — bringing back 244 of their 307 home runs from 2019. You should expect more bombas and more excitement as the Bomba Squad will be getting their encore in 2020. 2. Year 2 of Rocco Baldelli Coming off of a season where he won Manager of the Year and pushed a lot of the right buttons in 2019, Baldelli will now be coming into 2020 with a year of experience under his belt. His bullpen usage was questioned by many, but he is beloved by the clubhouse and his experience should serve him well in 2020. 3. Byron Buxton is healthy After spending 72 days on the injured list and getting shoulder surgery this past September, Buxton should finally be healthy again to start the 2020 season. After posting an .827 OPS in 87 games to start the year, Buxton was finally breaking out as the player who we all hoped that he could be as he topped the Twins’ prospect list for years. Now healthy in 2020, he should be one of the centerpieces of this team. 4. José Berríos in his age 26 season I wrote last week about how history shows that 26 is the age that pitchers will typically reach peak velocity and strikeout age as they enter into their late 20s. Berríos has been a very solid pitcher up to this point, but there is plenty of reason to believe that he could have ace potential in 2020. Can he put up the same production in September that he puts up in April? That will be the million dollar question. 5. Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda are back While the front office still hasn’t come through on their promise of bringing in “impact pitching” this offseason, the two biggest moves they have made this offseason have been bringing back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda on excellent contracts. Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 who posted a career best 4.3 fWAR and Pineda who was outstanding for the Twins down the stretch last year with his 2.96 ERA over his final 14 starts. To bring back these two starters along with Berríos next season should provide the Twins will solid top end pitching again next season. 6. The Twins’ bullpen has potential to be excellent In 2019 the Twins bullpen finished second in the baseball in fWAR, and from August 1 through the end of the season no bullpen had a better FIP than that of the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will be bringing back all of their core pieces from 2019, in addition to the veteran right-hander Tyler Clippard. 7. A full season of Luis Arráez Luis Arráez was an unexpected revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. After getting the call to the majors in May, Arráez never relinquished his spot on the 25-man roster. Instead, he flourished with the Twins to the tune of a .334 batting average and .838 OPS in 92 games with the Twins. The most disappointing thing about Arráez’s 2019 season was that he wasn’t called up to the club sooner. Being able to count on Arráez for a full season is just another reason to be excited about this ball club next in 2020. 8. Prospects will get a chance to shine One of the most exciting things about the 2019 season for the Minnesota Twins was getting to see all of the prospects who were called up and contributed to the team. Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Cody Stashak, Brusdar Graterol and Luis Arráez, among others, all put a memorable stamp on the 2019 season for Minnesota. We should see a similar number of prospects coming up this season that are ready to contribute as well. I would expect Jhoan Duran, Travis Blankenhorn, Brent Rooker, Luke Raley and Nick Gordon to join the team in 2020 as well as potentially the long-awaited debut of Alex Kirilloff. 9. Opportunities to improve the team are out there Twins Nation has understandably been frustrated with the front office and their lack of impact moves so far this offseason. Even still, the Twins have plenty of opportunity at hand to improve their team before the season or at the trade deadline. Minnesota has the financial flexibility to take on contracts as well as the prospect capital to go after whatever player interests them on the trade market. The roster the Twins bring into spring training might not be the roster they have come September or October. 10. This team is REALLY good Finally, lest we all forget, this team is REALLY good. The Twins won 101 games last season and a +185 run differential, good for fourth-best in all of baseball. They led major league baseball in 2019 in home runs and were top five in baseball in doubles, SLG, OPS and wRC+. They have a formidable starting rotation (albeit without an “impact arm”) and a potentially great bullpen. This team will be good in 2020, and we should all be really excited about baseball season finally arriving. Why are you excited about the Minnesota Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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You're definitely right and thanks for calling that out. I certainly intended to use the word "support" rather than "prove". I didn't use Ryu as an example just because he didn't come to the majors until he was 26 so using his stats in South Korea were more of a challenge. Cole didn't have his best season at age 26 but seems to have hit his peak at ages 27-28. The aging curve isn't perfect and correct in 100% of instances but is a general curve of the history of baseball. Being a year or 2 around the aging curve certainly helps support the aging curve as well even if it wasn't exactly at age 26.
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While the Twins struck out on signing an “impact” starting pitcher via free agency this offseason, they still do possess an impact starting pitcher of their own heading into the prime of his career — José Berríos. What does history tell us about starting pitchers entering their age-26 season in the majors? Let’s discuss!The aging curve for starting pitchers in baseball probably looks like what you would expect. Starters come into the league with flaming velocity and a high walk rate, their stats improve as they age until they peak, and then we see a steady statistical decline from that peak until the end of their career. What age does that peak come, though? Download attachment: Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png As you can see from the graph above from Fangraphs, the peak age for starting pitchers comes at 26. It’s after age 26 that pitcher velocity and strikeout rates begin to really decline and walk rates and FIP begin to steadily rise. It’s at age 26 that we can expect top performance from starting pitchers, which is good for Twins fans as their ace heading into the 2020 season, José Berríos, will turn 26 in May. Until this point in his career, Berríos has improved each season and followed the general aging curve shown in the graph above. His velocity (slightly) and walk rate (greatly) have declined while his strikeout rate and FIP have improved in each season. If Berríos continues to follow the aging curve that he has followed throughout his career, we could be looking at a peak Berríos season in 2020. Another thing that I looked at while I was studying the starting pitcher aging curve was to look at other recent examples of starting pitchers and how their age 26 season compared to the rest of the career. For this exercise I looked at starting pitchers who were free agents this season as we have them all fresh in our minds. Download attachment: BumStrasDK.jpg In the graph above I compiled statistics from Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg and Dallas Keuchel before, during and after their age-26 season to see how they compared. I highlighted in green when their age-26 stats represented a “peak” meaning they improved upon their career stats up until their age-26 season as well as showed a career decline in that statistic following their age-26 season. As you can see, most of these players posted career bests in their age-26 season, supporting our aging curve discussed above to be an accurate depiction of a pitcher’s career. So what does this mean for José Berríos? To this point in his career, José Berríos has posted a 4.21 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Expecting Berríos to improve on those career statistics in 2020 seems like a certainty. But just how much will he improve? If he can continue on his career trajectory and follow the starting pitcher aging curve, I think we should all be really excited about what next season could bring for the Puerto Rican right-hander. He could really be the ace that we were unable to acquire in free agency. What do you think we can expect from José Berríos heading into 2020? Leave a comment below to start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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The aging curve for starting pitchers in baseball probably looks like what you would expect. Starters come into the league with flaming velocity and a high walk rate, their stats improve as they age until they peak, and then we see a steady statistical decline from that peak until the end of their career. What age does that peak come, though? As you can see from the graph above from Fangraphs, the peak age for starting pitchers comes at 26. It’s after age 26 that pitcher velocity and strikeout rates begin to really decline and walk rates and FIP begin to steadily rise. It’s at age 26 that we can expect top performance from starting pitchers, which is good for Twins fans as their ace heading into the 2020 season, José Berríos, will turn 26 in May. Until this point in his career, Berríos has improved each season and followed the general aging curve shown in the graph above. His velocity (slightly) and walk rate (greatly) have declined while his strikeout rate and FIP have improved in each season. If Berríos continues to follow the aging curve that he has followed throughout his career, we could be looking at a peak Berríos season in 2020. Another thing that I looked at while I was studying the starting pitcher aging curve was to look at other recent examples of starting pitchers and how their age 26 season compared to the rest of the career. For this exercise I looked at starting pitchers who were free agents this season as we have them all fresh in our minds. In the graph above I compiled statistics from Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg and Dallas Keuchel before, during and after their age-26 season to see how they compared. I highlighted in green when their age-26 stats represented a “peak” meaning they improved upon their career stats up until their age-26 season as well as showed a career decline in that statistic following their age-26 season. As you can see, most of these players posted career bests in their age-26 season, supporting our aging curve discussed above to be an accurate depiction of a pitcher’s career. So what does this mean for José Berríos? To this point in his career, José Berríos has posted a 4.21 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Expecting Berríos to improve on those career statistics in 2020 seems like a certainty. But just how much will he improve? If he can continue on his career trajectory and follow the starting pitcher aging curve, I think we should all be really excited about what next season could bring for the Puerto Rican right-hander. He could really be the ace that we were unable to acquire in free agency. What do you think we can expect from José Berríos heading into 2020? Leave a comment below to start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Nice article, Nate. Very well written and great arguments (especially surrounding the defensive stuff). One thing that needs to be discussed about Josh Bell is just how different his season from June through the end of the season compared to his hot start: Beginning of season through May 31 (242 PAs): .343/.405/.704 (1.109) -- 178 wRC+ June 1 through end of season (371 PAs): .232/.342/.476 (.818) -- 107 wRC+
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Homer Bailey's IP before the 2019 season (when he pitched 163 innings): 2018: 106.1 2017: 91.0 2016: 23.0 2015: 11.1 There needs to be more pitching acquired. Homer Bailey simply can't be counted on to give you 150 innings in 2019. If he gets injured in April and no other moves are made you are left with Berrios, Odo, and prospects. I truly believe an impact trade is still coming.