by jiminy

If his goal is to throw it right down the middle, and he still had 34 walks in 71 innings, it sounds like he has some command issues.

That is not crazy though. There is no position with such variance year to year. Paying for past success for a reliever is no guarantee of future success. So if it is always going to be a gamble, why pay extra. If a young pitcher or reclamation project has a good chance to do as well as a veteran, you may as well save your money. Yes the odds are better the more you pay. But if the odds are worse at that position than any other, spending your money where it is more likely to pay off is a good strategy. Then convert some prospects or hire a vet with a good slider and make it work.

Yeah, it maybe should have said, "Alcala has already proved no matchup is too great for him, except lefties." But he is already up to 97 mph this spring, and if he can master an off speed pitch to flummox lefties he could be lights out.

I thought that at the time too. But given that Martin Perez just went an entire season with a 2.89 ERA and signed for $19.65 million dollars I am not quite so ready to dump on the Twins for maybe seeing something in him I didn't.

Good slider, hittable fastball? He wouldn't be the first reliever they told, just throw that slider. Of course he also sounds like a potential Pagan 2.0: good stuff but it occasionally gets hammered anyway. Well, worth a shot.

I LOVE that he wants to avoid unnecessary injuries! Maybe some of that prudence will rub off on Buxton. That could be worth the cost of his contract alone! And I don't think his caution about stealing bases necessarily reflects concern about his ankle plate. The issues he mentioned -- hard tags, hand injuries, and twisting ankles -- are genuine risks in and of themselves. I am always especially appalled to see people slide in hands-first. I remember Cuddyer tearing up his hand that way, just when he was on a tear. It's so easy to hyperextend your thumb or get stomped by spikes. Buxton's speed is too good a weapon to shut down completely, but I hate seeing him slide head first, especially the way he dives so hard. But even sliding feet first, he injured his knee in 2022 and it lingered for months. I don't think Correa is being a worrywart, or revealing some unique hidden fragility, I think he is just being smart. I hope his vaunted leadership applies here, too!

What's really cool about the vesting options is they don't just protect against the ankle, they protect against any injury.

The only thing that would make this signing make sense to me would be if they see him as a capable center fielder. I haven't seen him play enough to have an opinion on that. But with the number of games Buxton misses, a backup CF is extremely important. If they trust him to start for months at a time if necessary, his bat has a good chance of being good enough to let them weather a long absence by Buxton. Otherwise he's just another corner outfielder, and not enough better than what we have to justify the expense. But if Buxton goes down and Gallo's fielding is good enough to play in CF, I would rather see him starting out there than anyone else we have, assuming they trade Kepler

It's too soon to know whether Buxton was a better long-term investment than Berrios. Buxton's injury issues have not exactly gone away. Berrios could have many more productive years than Buxton.

You convinced me. Using Sands when you just need one inning mop up and Pagan when you need long relief does seem inexplicable. And I am saying that as someone who thinks most criticism of Rocco's bullpen usage is overblown. Most often the problem is just a lack of good options. But I can't defend this. I understand the temptation to stick with Pagan. He throws 97, has filthy stuff, and gets swings and misses. But when every fifth pitch is a mistake right down the middle, the results will be just what you see. Everyone in the big leagues can hit a mistake. It doesn't matter what you do between mistakes if you lead the league in home runs. And he now has a four year track record saying this is not going to stop. I just hope Alcala and Maeda are ready for the stretch run. They don't have starters that can protect the bullpen, and the don't have enough relievers to throw five innings every night. There is no right answer for Rocco till reinforcements arrive. But in the meantime, why not use Sands in long relief? That is a head scratcher. I hope it's not because they need him to start for Mahle, but that might be a consideration.

Short starts and a long pen is a good strategy but requires a deep bullpen. Otherwise it's like the Timberwolves saying the most efficient way to score points is with the 3-point shot, and leading the league in 3-point attempts, but missing them all because the roster has no shooters. The roster and the strategy have to mesh.

Thanks, that was a good video.

Back to the original point -- I think it's very astute to say you can't document the third time through the order effect just by ERA. Since most don't see the bottom of the order. The fair way would be to calculate batter by batter, then aggregate. Look at batters who faced the same pitcher three times, and compare the first two at bats to the third.

I don't see why everybody assumes trading Correa would make the Twins worse. What if they traded him for pitching? They could get someone who could help right now, and maybe even had a year or two more on his contract instead of a few months. But even when considering just the effect this year, the equation is, does the drop off in production at shortstop outweigh the improvement on the mound? (Or at some other position that has a drastic underperformance due to injury.) The drop off from Correa to Lewis would be real but not catastrophic. And if he has been tearing it up in AAA, gets a promotion, and is hitting great as a utility player, while Correa is just okay, there might not be much of a drop off at all. But in any case it would probably not sink their playoff chances. Now imagine the bullpen is getting lit up on a regular basis, and it is costing the team games. The rotation is fine, the hitting and fielding is fine, but no one but Duran could be trusted against the Yankees. Or suppose Duran gets hurt. (I literally just knocked on wood.) I think there is a very strong case that the team could be a lot stronger with a solid bullpen, or a solid starter, if that is what they need, and Lewis at short, than Correa on a lame duck contract and a bullpen full of matches. Add to that another year or two of team control and I would definitely be taking calls about Correa. All it takes is an injury to a contender or would-be contender and the return could push us over the top.

The current rotation doesn't have to last all year, just till Maeda, Balazovic, and some surprise guy who wasn't even on our radar show up. The bullpen just has to hang in there till Alcala and some current minor league starters get called up. Duran is for real, and they have numbers if not an intimidating top three. The hitting just has to keep doing what it is doing: With a healthy Kiriloff added to Buxton, Larnach, Garlick, Kepler, Celestino, and Gordon, the outfield should be good and deep. And an infield of Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Urshela, Gordon, Lewis, Miranda, and Sano should be able to weather the inevitable injuries. Is this a 100 win team that can beat the Yankees and Dodgers? Probably not. But it's probably not going to collapse like last year, and will probably hang around all year, especially in such a weak division. No team is a sure thing, even the Yankees and Dodgers. I don't think they are head and shoulders above the rest of the league, but I don't think they are a mirage, either. Here's to the pipeline!