Melissa

I spent the last three days over at Lee County Sport Complex wandering, watching, taking in my fill. While I don’t have many specifics to add, I thought I’d just do one big photo and video dump. I tried to get variety and as many different players that I could. These were all taken on my phone, and yeah, I’m not a photographer or videographer, which will become obvious. And I don’t apologize for it one iota. I tried to label what I could and what I remembered. 🙂
Field adjacent to the stadium, waiting for players to start their day.

 
Autograph hounds waiting to get players to sign all the stuff they brought with them.

 
Set up ready for warm ups.

 
The infield only field, named for TK.

 
The stadium, looking toward the infield.

 
The main stadium, looking towards the outfield.

 
Joey Gallo taking some practice at 1st base

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Kepler in the cages



 
Can’t remember who all this is.

 
Tony O is the one on the left

 
Pitchers getting ready for warm ups 

 
 

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Chris Paddack throwing



 
Position players warming up

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I think this is Eduard Julien?

 
Austin Martin @chpettit19


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Can you spot Randy Dobnak?


 
I think this is Jorge López

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Randy Dobnak

 
I think that’s Nick Gordon tagging the base, with Correa looking on

 
Jovani Moran

 
A bunch of guys coming off the field

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Miranda taking swings, with Gordon looking on


 
Don’t remember who this is and I can’t tell from this photo

Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?

As stated in the above title, I have undertaken this semi-scientific study for two reasons; both inadequate. Number One: as an experiment on publishing a chart on TD without losing the format I painstakingly created, and Number Two - no, not that number two, although a comparison could be made - as yet another way to kick around a few numbers, calculations, and problematic propositions in order to stave off complete insanity as the plunging thermometer frosts all windows, bars all doors and somehow mysteriously drains all liquor cabinets. Unless of course one had the perspicacity to adequately prepare for the end of the world.
Justification... uh, justified, allow me to explain my line of thought, or as we like to say in the middle of January, catch my drift. A little winter humor there.
Runs, you see, (no, not the runs that often originate from over imbibing, but the runs scored, or not, on the baseball diamond) determine winners and losers. You score more runs than the other guys you win. It therefore behooves (always like to use that word - sounds kind of... horsey) a manager to construct his lineup so as to maximize run-scoring opportunities. Now in the old days, I know, that's so last century, you constructed your lineup so batters that had a knack for getting on base batted before guys who had a knack for driving in said on-base guys. Sounds like your Aunt Helen; simple, but in truth (which if you can believe my wife, I often tend to stray from; "Yes dear, this is only my second drink") it is not as simple as it sounds. At least until I undertook this analysis.
I have therefore attached a chart depicting the Twins top-ten RBI generators from the 2022 Fade Away Season. You will probably astutely note that the Top Ten RBI Chart only lists seven players. That is a deliberate "mistake". Since three of those Top Ten RBI guys from '22, like our chances of making the playoffs last year, have faded away and therefore are of little value in contriving 2023 batting line-ups, I have excluded them.
The chart ranks the players by RBI; mostest on the topest, leastest on the bottomest, the latter not to be confused with bottomless, as in the depths Minnesota sports teams have plummeted.
Column headings, I believe, should be self-explanatory except for the last; "RBI/ManOB%". I'm sure there's a stat somewhere that better categorizes this but basically it shows the percentage of RBI's delivered with runners on base without hitting a homerun. I debated naming it "Clutch Hit" but that would've been too easy. I know, I know, there's all sorts of factors that could go into these calculations but I'll leave that to the stat guys who either have more or less time to waste than I do and can better define it.
Suffice it to say, according to my chart Miranda is "Mr. Clutch" as he is most likely to drive in a run with men on base. Polanco comes in 2nd and Gordon is 3rd "clutchiest".
Surprisingly, Buxton comes in dead last. Though I would suspect that batting 1st or 2nd in the lineup, nobody on, and hitting a homerun accounts for that. But Jeffers coming in higher than Kepler and Correa? Holy Balls, Batman!
Anyway, looking at the chart, how would you organize these seven in a lineup to maximize scoring opportunities?
 
Quiz on Friday
 
 

Deciding the "Mount Rushmore" of any sports franchise can be hard to do. Most franchises have many great players who are deserving. Here are the four who make up my Minnesota Twins Mount Rushmore.
Harmon Killebrew Killebrew played for the Twins from 1954-1974. He was a 13-time All-Star, won the American League MVP award in 1969, and finished his career with 573 home runs. He currently sits at 12th in all-time home runs. With the Twins, Killebrew hit .256/.376/.509 with 559 home runs, 1559 RBI, and 1843 walks. He also won six American League home run titles and led the MLB in RBI three times. Killebrew finished his baseball career with the Kansas City Royals in 1975. When his career wrapped up, Killebrew finished 1st in Twins RBI, WAR+ and home runs. Killebrew was inducted as a member into the Hall of Fame in 1984. When Killebrew retired, he was one of the most feared hitters ever and one of the greatest sluggers in baseball history. All of these accolades earn Killebrew a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
Kirby Puckett Kirby Puckett, in addition to being a fan favorite was a great player. Puckett batted .318 in his career, which is the highest in Twins history. Puckett won the AL batting title in 1989 with a .339 average, and he finished in the top ten in batting average eight times in his career. Puckett had 2,304 hits in his career, which is the second-most in Twins history. Puckett was a 10-time All-Star, which is tied for the most ever in Twins history. Puckett was a key part of the Twins' two World Series championship teams in 1987 and 1991. In the 1991 World Series, he hit .429 with two home runs and six RBI in the series. His most famous moment as a Twin was his walk-off homer in game 6 in 1991. Puckett won many awards during his career. These included six Gold Gloves, the 1989 AL batting title, and the 1991 AL Comeback Player of the Year award. Unfortunately Puckett's career was cut short due to retina damage in his right eye following the 1995 season. Puckett was named to the MLB Hall of Fame in 2001. Overall Puckett's combination of hitting, defense, and postseason success make him one of the greatest players in Twins history and earns him a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore. 
Rod Carew Rod Carew was one of the best Minnesota Twins players of all time because of his performance both at the plate and in the field. During his 12-year career with the Twins (1967-1978), Carew hit for a .334 batting average, which is the highest in Twins history. He took home the American League batting title in seven of those 12 seasons with the Twins, including four consecutive titles from 1972 to 1975. In 1977, he hit .388, the highest batting average by any American League player since 1941. Carew was an All-Star in all 12 seasons with the Twins. Carew was the AL MVP in 1977. Carew was also a really good fielder. He won a Gold Glove in each of his last five seasons with the Twins. Carew was named to the MLB Hall of Fame in 1991. Rod Carew's greatness as a hitter, combined with his exceptional fielding ability, makes him one of the greatest players in Minnesota Twins history and puts him on Mount Rushmore.
Joe Mauer Joe Mauer wraps up this list. In his time with the Twins, Mauer played 15 seasons with the Twins (2004-2018). In that time he hit over .300 in nine seasons and finished his career with a .306 batting average. Mauer's defense was incredible, he was a Gold Glove-winning catcher 3 times during his career and was widely regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game during his prime. Mauer won multiple awards throughout his career, including the American League MVP award in 2009. He also won three Gold Gloves, five Silver Slugger awards, and was selected to six All-Star teams. Mauer's stats were excellent; he had 2,123 hits, 143 home runs, 923 RBI, and 1,018 runs scored. He also drew 939 walks and struck out only 877 times in 7,708 plate appearances. Mauer's career on-base percentage was .388, which is among the highest in Twins franchise history. Overall, Joe Mauer was a fantastic player who excelled on both sides of the field. His awards and stats all contribute to his legacy as one of the best players in Twin's history and earn him a spot on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
With players such as Johan Santana, Tony Oliva, Bert Blyleven and Torii Hunter being left off this list there is plenty of room for debate on who deserves to be on the Twins Mount Rushmore.
 

There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.

As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. 
So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. 
Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. 
Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. 
As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: 
Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. 
The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. 
Walk %: 
Voit: 10.2%
Gurriel: 5.7%
Solano: 5.7%
K %: 
Voit: 28.5%
Gurriel: 11.2%
Solano: 18.0%
Projected WAR (using ZiPS): 
Voit: 0.8 WAR
Gurriel: 1.5 WAR
Solano: 1.2 WAR
Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility. 
Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. 
Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP.
One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. 
I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. 
Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?). 

I would bet most of you had a similar thought to me when you saw the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a 1 year, $11 million deal for 2023... That thought being "Max Kepler must be getting traded." While that hasn't materialized, a few other moves have that have led to the Twins holding onto Kepler as their starting Right Fielder, as of now. 
Max Kepler is still a productive player, and projects to have a solid enough year this year as well. ZiPs projects Kepler to have a slash line of .231/.320/.410, which is projected for a 2.3 fWAR. Not spectacular, but a solid regular nonetheless.
As for Gallo, his skillset is different than Kepler's, which makes them both valuable, but in different ways. Gallo has significantly more power, but likely a much lower batting average. Sound familiar? Yes, similar to Miguel Sano. One key different in Gallo is that he is a gold-glove level player in the OF, which adds to his value much more than Sano ever had. Gallo's ZiPs projections are .194/.330/.426, which is good for a 2.9 fWAR. He is also projected for 25 HR and 60 RBI. 
Now let's compare Gallo and Sano, who many people are making comparisons to: In comparing Gallo to Sano, you may seem some similarities, such as a high strikeout rate. Gallo (37.3% K rate for his career), Sano (36.4% K rate for his career). Another similarity is the prodigious power both players have. Gallo has hit 38+ HR 3 times, which is what the Twins FO is hoping for going forward. As for Sano, he hit 30 HR one time, in 2021. 
The differences are the key to why Joey Gallo should be more valuable than Sano. Sano was not great defensively, accounting for -9 Defensive Runs saved at 1B over his career and -32 Defensive Runs Saved at 3B over his career. I'm going to ignore the horrible time he had in the OF in 2016 for the sake of this discussion. 
Meanwhile, Gallo has been worth a whopping 37 DRS in the outfield since 2019, which is good for 3rd in MLB, tied with Byron Buxton, and trailing Michael A. Taylor (Twins 4th OF) and Mookie Betts. Pretty darn good company, I would say. 
So let's look at a direct comparison to see if Gallo is similar to Sano, or if he is a different player using the 5-tools of a player. 
Skill
Sano
Gallo
Contact
I would say this is similar. Low batting average, high K% for both guys.
Power
 
X
I’d give this to Gallo because of the more consistent power across multiple seasons. 3 seasons of 38+ HR and Sano only having one season at 30 HR.
Speed
 
X
I’d give a slight edge to Gallo solely because he has 29 career SB versus Sano’s 5. Neither guy steals a ton of bases. Also – Joey Gallo’s average sprint speed is 27.1 and Sano’s is 26.7 so Gallo is slightly faster.
Arm
Sano had a very strong arm when he played at 3B, but at 1B, your arm isn’t shown off quite as much. Gallo has had some good years in OF assists, but it is hard to give the edge to one guy over the other when comparing this tool.
Fielding
 
X
As discussed above, Gallo is a gold-glove winning fielder, and to put it simply, Sano is not.
In using this to compare the two players, yes, there are absolutely similarities, but there are key differences that show Joey Gallo will be a much more valuable player to the Twins. This may be attributed to the position he plays, but I also think it will be contributed to his power and his glove more than anything. 
What do you all think? Is Joey Gallo another Miguel Sano, or will he prove to be a sneaky good pick-up for the Twins this year?

The 2022 Minnesota Twins looked like they were destined for success. They had great chemistry and were winning ballgames, they looked closer to their 2019 form than the disappointing 2021 form we had seen the year prior. However, injuries started to take place and the ballclub started to lose games. As disappointing as this was, we got to see a bunch of new prospects. Promising flashes from players like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon had us itching for 2023. Now that opening day is less than 60 days away, here are some realistic player goals for some Twins Hitters. 
Byron Buxton 
Buxton’s career has always been riddled with health questions. He has played in over 100 games once, and that was back in 2018 when he played 140 games. The results were favorable as he won the Gold Glove and stole 28 bases. Last year we saw the best year of Buxton’s career, as he was named an AL All-Star, had a 138 OPS+, and actually gained some national recognition. The problem? He played in 92 games. If Buxton stays healthy, he is a consensus top-10 player and a huge part of the Twins' success.
Goals: Show you can stay healthy and play in 120 games, 80 of them in CF. Maintain an OPS of over .800 and hit 30 home runs.

Carlos Correa 
The Twins signed Correa to essentially a one-year contract last offseason, and expectations were set high. Correa struggled in the first two months, posting a .633 OPS. Was it the cold? The new home and clubhouse? Just a random bad stretch? Who knows, but he quickly recovered and played like a high-level All-Star for the rest of the season. Now that Correa is here long term, he should be one of the ultimate factors to the Twins success not only this year but in the next five.
Goals: Prove that you are worth over 30 million. Finish top 10 in MVP voting and be a finalist for Gold Glove. Help develop and mentor young guys like; Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien.
Jose Miranda 
Although he was never a top-of-the-line prospect, Miranda had a lot of excitement last year after his breakout 2021 season. Miranda was called up in May and, well, let’s just say he struggled. He posted a .532 OPS and eventually got sent back down to AAA. When he got another shot in June, he didn’t put it to waste. Miranda impressed in June, then impressed even more in July, and remained a steady anchor for the Twins lineup for the rest of the year. Miranda showed very promising flashes in 2022 and if he continues to develop, he should be a core part of this franchise for years to come. 
Goals: Show that you can stay at the hot corner. Prove yourself as a 4-5 hitter in the lineup and post a .780 OPS.
Alex Kirilloff
The former first-round pick had a lot of questions heading into the 2022 season. Will he stay healthy? The ultimate answer was no. Kirilloff has had constant injury issues, specifically ones with his wrist. If AK can stay healthy, he can cement himself as a key piece into the unproven Twins outfield. 
Goals: Prove that your wrist won’t be an issue in the future. Play in 100 games this year and prove that you have your power back by hitting 15 home runs. Post an OPS of over .780 and show that you belong in the future of this team.

Joey Gallo 
Joey Gallo was a star in Arlington, and he didn’t start to decline until his trade to New York. Some blame it on the pressure of a big market team. If this is true, Gallo could have a huge comeback season. So far, it seems like Gallo is enjoying Minnesota. If he can control his strikeouts and utilize the shift ban, he can be put back on the map for MLB stars.
Goals: Be the person you were in Texas. Be flexible on defense as you may see some 1B. Maintain a .200 average, have an OPS+ of over 100, and hit 30 Home Runs.
Nick Gordon 
Gordon was almost forgotten about as a prospect as some major injuries derailed him from stardom. Once a top prospect, he had a ton of upside, especially with his speed. Gordon got a ton of opportunities all over the field and proved himself clutch late in the season. Now with a guaranteed shot in the big leagues, Gordon finds himself with an opportunity to become a full-time big league player. 
Goals: Keep your OPS+ above league average and steal 10 bases. Prove to be more level at the plate: raise your BB% and try to minimize your strikeouts.
Royce Lewis 
Lewis was the first overall pick for the Minnesota Twins back in 2017. Lewis thrived until his 2019 season when he had his first down year. He rebounded winning AFL MVP in late 2019. Due to the canceled 2020 MiLB season and an ACL tear in 2021, Lewis had to be sidelined for two years. Finally getting back on the field in 2022, Lewis Dazzled in AAA and got a call-up. He rocketed past his expectations and looked like that first overall pick that we had seen prior. After suffering his second ACL tear in two years, Lewis is set to come back sometime in the mid-summer and has a chance to prove himself as a big-league player. 
Goals: Stay healthy through the 2023 season. Show that your 2022 stint wasn’t a fluke. Have an OPS+ over league average and a positive OAA. Show that you still have your speed and steal at least five bases.
 
These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023. Correa said he wanted to build a dynasty in Minnesota, and these players get to decide if that comes true this season.
This is my first blog post with Twins Daily, so please give some feedback! Keep your eyes peeled for 2023 Pitcher Goals. Thank you!

The Dynamic Duo have brought a creativity towards acquiring prospects that even Terry Ryan who was the master of acquiring prospects never thought of.
The first example is one of my favorites.  With Ohtani on the market and notifying the Twins they would not be one of the finalists for his services Falvine went and traded their extra international spending cap space for 2 prospects.  They traded 1 million in cap space to the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles for Pearson a 2nd round draft pick and OF.  The Twins also traded 1 million in cap space to the Mariners of Seattle for David Banuelos a 5th round draft pick and C.  Banuelos is still with the Twins and in AAA.  I hope to see him get in some games with the Twins just to make these trades a success, But we got essentially 2 high draft picks for nothing.
Another example was in the draft when the Twins followed suit from the Astros example and saved money on Royce Lewis to be able to sign another draft pick in the third round who had first round talent.  Today Enlow is one of our top 30 prospects in the system and being creative is how we landed him.  Granted he lost some luster as a prospect because of the lost 2020 season then Tommy John surgery in 2021, but 2023 should be the year he bounces back from that completely so hopefully we have another mid rotation starter being developed here. 
The trade deadline sell off.  Lets face it we were all mad when the Twins threw In the towel and traded several fan favorite players at the time for prospects.  The 2 big names were RP Presley and IF Escobar.  We netted Alcala, Duran, and Celestino from those trades, however.  The trade of Berrios was unpopular as well and we received Martin and SWR.  2 of our top 15 prospects.  For Cruz we got Ryan and Strotman who was a top 30 prospect before regressing. 
As much as I didn’t like the sell offs I did like this next technique.  Making a trade and a little bit more…. When the Twins traded Lewin Diaz to Florida, they got Romo and a little bit more in prospect Valimont (who was a top 30 prospect before regressing).  He is no longer with the Twins but this is not the only example.  When the Twins traded Garver to the Rangers for their SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa the Twins got a little bit more with Henriquez who is a top 30 prospect.  With the trade for Lopez the Twins got a lot (little bit more) with Jose Salas a top 15 prospect and Byron Chorio which is essentially an extra international signing. 
I actually forgot this and am now adding but they also got Severino when the Braves were penalized for their international signing practices and the Twins were able to swoop in and sign Severino away from the Braves for 2.5 million.  This added another in and out top 30 Twins prospect.  As Seth Stohs points out he should be in AA next season and 1 year younger then the average player at that level.  He also had a high OPS last year.  
The one creative way that is missing is the Rule 5 draft.  A favorite of the last regime, but not used by this one.   I am also leaving out the waver wire because most of our acquisitions have not been prospects per se.  Also I don't remember the full details on acquiring Cave from the Yankees I think we gave up Gil who is a great prospect for the Yankees and I don't remember what we gave up for Littell either.  If i remember correctly he was also a pickup from a playoff sell off with the pitcher we had for a week going to New York.  we trade Hnoa to the Braves for that pitcher so essentially a three team trade of Hnoa for Littell and a start by the other pitcher.  
Overall from their creativity we have a #3 starter in Ryan, 2 RPs in Duran and Alcala, a back up OF in Celestino, and 5 of our current top 30 prospects ( Enlow, Salas, SWR, Martin, and Henriquez) and 1 just outside the top 30 in Severino.

Earlier today the Minnesota Twins crossed a major offseason to-do off their list by signing catcher Christian Vázquez to a 3 year/$30M deal. Since 2020, Vázquez has caught the 5th most games in MLB and was worth 1.6 fWAR in 2022. Important considering Ryan Jeffers' health concerns.
Prior to the signing, the Twins were projected to generate the 5th worst fWAR out of the catcher position. Now, they project to be around league average (15th) with the duo of Vázquez (2.0 projected fWAR) and Jeffers (1.4 projected fWAR).  
Here are five reasons the Vázquez signing could be exactly what the Twins need:
1. A great defender
Since 2020, Vázquez has accumulated the 6th most DRS at the catcher position (+17) in 2,277.1 innings behind the plate. His fielding runs above average is also the 6th highest during that span (30.9). 
Additionally, he's been a plus pitch framer his entire career. He was worth +1 framing runs in 2022, but has the 8th most framing runs in MLB since Baseball Savant began tracking this metric (+29 framing runs). The Twins have been known to be great with their catchers to improve this metric. Ryan Jeffers was worth +2 runs in 2022. Gary Sanchez went from -6 in 2021 with the Yankees to +1 last year, so it's possible that Vázquez could benefit even more from coach Hank Conger. 
Image via Baseball Savant. 

2. Elite Pitch Caller
It's baseball so everything is trackable. The statistic rCERA is catcher ERA runs saved. So essentially, it's measuring how effective (or ineffective) a catcher is at limiting runs for a pitching staff. A plus in this statistic is a good thing. It's as close as we can come to assigning a number to a catcher's ability to call a game. 
If you watched a Twins game late in 2022, you saw some questionable pitch calls by Gary Sanchez. Jeffers is above average in this statistic (+1 rCERA since 2020) and Vázquez ranks 4th best in MLB since 2020 with a +5 rCERA. 
During that timeframe Gary Sanchez ranks dead last out of 130 catchers with a -10 rCERA. 
The Twins overall ranked 19th in rCERA (-1) in 2022. The combination of a healthy Jeffers and Vázquez should no doubt help the Twins pitching staff. An improvement from last year. Here's to hoping that we see less righty on righty changeups being thrown in 2023 :) 
 
3. Throws Out Runners 
It's not a secret that the Twins have a stolen base problem. Late into the 2022 season it seemed like runners could take extra bases at will. The Twins allowed 94 SB in 2022, the 9th most in MLB only throwing out 20% of runners. 
Ryan Jeffers is not a great throwing catcher. Last year he only threw out 18% of runners. Since he came into the league he has the 3rd worst rSB (runs saved by throwing out runners) at -6 rSB, ranking 163 out of 165 catchers. 
Since 2018 Christian Vázquez has thrown out the second most runners in MLB (81) at a 30.45% clip. 
His exchange time of .67 seconds was 4th quickest in MLB last year. His 1.94 sec pop time ranked 22nd in MLB among 85 catchers. 
With stolen bases a problem for the Twins, and base sizes increasing in 2023, all the more reason for the Twins to add a catcher who can control the run game, and they're getting this here. 
Here's a nice video of Vázquez's hose piece vs the Twins (sorry Jake Cave). 
4. Hits RHP Better than Jeffers 
Vázquez is by no means a thumper. He owns a 92 wRC+ since 2020. But, has posted a 95 WRC+ vs RHP during that span. 
Twins catchers were especially poor vs RHP in 2022. They ranked 24th in baseball with a 66 wRC+ and a 30.7 K% which was 3rd worst in MLB (YUCK!).
Ryan Jeffers posted only a 57 wRC+ vs RHP last year (ranked 41st out of 55 catchers who had 100 PA). 
While the best offensive combo for the Twins would have been to pair a LHH catcher with Jeffers as a platoon, just having a catcher who can at least hold their own vs RHP will be a massive upgrade. 
Ryan Jeffers will assuredly get all of the AB's vs a LHP - a career 125 wRC+ vs LHP (Vázquez has only posted 84 wRC+ vs LHP since 2020). 
The combo of Jeffers vs LHP and Vázquez vs RHP will be plenty serviceable offensively and a lift upon a total black hole at the spot last year. 
5. Veteran Presence 
Vázquez is 32 years old and has played in 8 seasons. Two of those eight have resulted in World Series parades (2018 with Boston and 2022 with Houston). He's played in 31 playoff games logging 99 PA's which is more than Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, and Jorge Polanco have in the playoffs combined. 
No doubt a player of Vázquez's caliber will be instrumental in leading a young Twins core in 2023 and beyond. The Twins average age of position players was 26.9, 4th youngest in MLB. He's the cliche "clubhouse guy" and the Twins absolutely need that. In his short time in Houston, he made an impression in that locker room and with the pitching staff. 
One can only hope he is on the Twins team that breaks the playoff curse during his tenure here. 
Please enjoy this video of Vázquez hitting a walk-off HR vs the Rays in the playoffs last season. 
6. He's Buddies with Carlos Correa (BONUS!)
OK, I know I said 5 reasons but I couldn't pass this up. Carlos Correa and Christian Vázquez went to the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy together. Maybe they will find each other playing for their country in the World Baseball Classic in 2023 alongside Twins 3B Jose Miranda and RP Jorge Lopez. 
And maybe the combo of Jose + Christian + Jorge can recruit their fellow countrymen back to Minnesota?
It's a dream. But, it certainly can't hurt! 
 

Another series, another sweep! 
The Twins just keep rolling! My main takeaway from this past weekend's series vs the Oakland Athletics is what a joy it was to get a glimpse of what the Twins' future lineup might look like. On its face, let's say someone showed you a Twins lineup featuring Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, Gilberto Celestino and Josh Winder on the mound. What year would you think it is?
Although we are seeing some of these faces due to illness and injury, it's apparent that the future is bright for the Twins. They have depth, talent, and based on the number of one-run games they have pulled out this year, grit and ability to tackle adversity. The Twins have the largest division lead in baseball- 3 games over the the second place Chicago White Sox. But exactly as I predicted, here come the Sox; they have gone on a tear and have won 6 in a row. Things have begun to calm down in the field for them after starting the year off with a circus of errors.  But as long as the Twins are taking care of business on the field, they don't need to worry about what the Sox are doing.
Regarding Lewis specifically, seeing him make his long-awaited debut AND get his first hit on Friday was a blast. Considering how beautiful of a night it was and that the Twins' #1 prospect was making his debut, I was expecting a bit larger of a crowd, but I know several people who went to the game for the sole purpose of seeing Lewis debut. His hit brought about a funny moment that may or may not have been picked up by TV- when Lewis' first hit ball made its way back to the Twins dugout, Gio Urshela feigned tossing it into the crowd. If he actually did, it could've been a Tom Brady 600th touchdown ball situation. Regardless, the Twins fans in attendance treated him right and rewarded him with some big cheers during pregame introductions and after that first MLB hit. He received a standing ovation by many fans during his first at bat too, His debut has been a long time coming, and after having gone through ACL surgery and rehab, it was rewarding to finally see him on the field after all that hard work. Welcome to the Show!
One other cool observation from the game on Friday- the Twins put up the score of the Wild game on the outfield screen! I really appreciated being able to follow along what was going on with the game. My friends and I could barely believe our eyes when we saw the board light up that the Wild had scored two goals in the first couple minutes while on the road. That's one way to quiet a crowd!
 
I'm looking forward to getting to some more Twins games this week! Twins fans who were waiting for 70s and 80s weather to go, now is your chance.
For those who like kicking back and having a couple beers at the ballpark (I'll stick to Gatorade and dollar dogs), look no further than the Twins' new promotion called "First 2 Drinks On Us!" For games on May 6- May 15, $30, gets fans a ballpark access ticket and two drinks. Considering that's probably about the cost of two beers (can you tell I'm not a beer drinker?), that doesn't seem like too shabby of a deal.
Have a great week and Go Twins!

His very first at bat!

After Lewis' first MLB hit, a single!

Our Minnesota Twins start the 2022 MLB Season at 11-8 and are 1st Place in the American League Central Division.

It’s a Small Sample Size, but the Twins have shown both areas of strength and areas of weakness in their first 19 games. Today, we’re going to analyze the following four items and label each as either a strength or a weakness:
• Starting Pitching
• Relief Pitching
• Offense
• Defense

Starting Pitching: Strength
One of the biggest surprises for the Twins thus far in 2022 has been the starting pitching. The Twins’ starting rotation was predicted by many to be an average to slightly above group. However, the numbers say this group has greatly exceeded expectations in the first 19 games. A few stats for you:
Team SP ERA: 2.39 (2nd)
Team SP Opp BA: .205 (5th)
Team SP WAR: 1.9 (5th)
Team SP WHIP: 1.01 (3rd)
Team SP HR/9: 0.80 (8th)
Team SP BB%: 6.1% (4th)
Team SP K%: 22.5% (14th)
Team SP WPA: 1.31 (4th)
Team SP LOB%: 81.9% (2nd)

It’s fair to say this group has greatly exceeded expectations through the first 19 games. Dylan Bundy, Chris Paddack, and rookie Joe Ryan have led the rotation, combining for 53.0 IP and 1.8 WAR (0.6 WAR each).

Relief Pitching: Weakness
The Twins’ relief staff was one of the main contributors the the team’s early collapse in 2021 (Mostly due to a reliever who shall not be named blowing several saves). While it hasn’t been as much of a burden on the team so far in 2022 as it was in 2021, it has been a problem and the numbers reflect that:
Team RP ERA: 3.94 (21st)
Team RP Opp BA: .241 (27th)
Team RP WAR: -0.3 (28th)
Team RP WHIP: 1.38 (27th)
Team RP HR/9: 1.39 (28th)
Team RP K%: 23.8% (16th)
Team RP BB%: 10.8% (25th)
Team RP WPA: 0.15 (18th)
Team RP LOB%: 80% (5th)

One of the main reasons that this group has struggled is that Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar have struggled, despite being effective for the Twins in the past. Tyler Duffey has a team worst -0.76 WPA, and Caleb Thielbar has a -0.35 WPA. If this group is going to be league average, those two are going to need to figure it out.

Offense: Middle of the Road
This Twins offense had potential to be one of baseball’s most explosive units. In some ways it has. In other ways it hasn’t.
Team Batting RS: 75 (17th)
Team Batting BA: .225 (20th)
Team Batting OBP: .314 (13th)
Team Batting SLG: .369 (16th)
Team Batting OPS: .683 (17th)
Team Batting: wRC+: 107 (15th)
Team Batting K%: 24.6% (25th)
Team Batting BB%: 10.6% (4th)
Team Batting HR: 20 (9th)
Team Batting WAR: 2.1 (17th)
Obviously this group has its strengths and weaknesses. It’s fair to say that it was expected that this offense would rank high in HRs. But what really sticks out to me about this group so far is the BB%. They ranked in the 15-20 range every year from 2019-2021, but they’ve jumped all the way to 4th in 2022. I don’t know what caused this large leap, but I do know that more walks lead to a better offense.
And in case you didn’t hear, Byron Buxton is good at baseball.
The biggest problem with this group by far has been the K%. They rank 25th in the MLB with a 24.6 K%.

If you add all of the stats up, the Twins’ offense has been middle of the road. If the Twins want their offense to be Top 10 in MLB, they’ll need to lower the Team K% and increase the Team BA. As the weather gets warmer, that may very well happen. We’ll see.

Defense: Middle of the Road
From Jorge Polanco’s terrible defense at SS to Luis Arraez’s terrible defense at 3B, defense has been a problem for the Twins over the last couple of years. In theory, this defense should be pretty good. A speedy Buxton in CF combined with Carlos Correa at SS and Max Kepler in RF sounds awesome.
So far in 2022, the Twins’ defense has a FP of 98.8% (11th) and has committed 4 Errors (12th). There isn’t a lot to say here. The Twins’ defense has been about average and hasn’t made any game-losing blunders thus far.

To recap, the Twins’ starting rotation is the main reason for their winning streak. Their relief staff has coughed up multiple leads. Their offense and defense have been up and down. If the Twins want to be a contender in 2022, they will need to shore up their relief staff and lower their strikeout numbers. Their starting staff will also need to continue to perform well.

There’s still patches of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities, and there was already a postponement before a pitch has been thrown. Welcome back, Minnesota Twins baseball.
The Mariners are in town this weekend, followed by the Dodgers next week; but a six-game homestand isn’t the most captivating storyline this week. Rather, did the moves the front office made during the lockout-shortened offseason put this team in a position to rise from the ashes and shake the forgettable 2021 season? 
Fox Sports’ pundit Colin Cowherd often says “aggressive wins” in sports today. Think about the 2019 Toronto Raptors, 2020 Los Angeles Lakers, 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2021 Los Angeles Rams, 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers (lots of LA teams in there, what’s up with that?), and 2021 Atlanta Braves. Every single one of these teams won their respective league championships by taking risks and being aggressive. The ‘21 Braves were under .500 and 5 games back in a weak NL East at the trade deadline. Understanding the wackiness of the MLB playoffs and how just getting into the tournament sometimes is all you need to go on a World Series run (1987 Twins, anyone?), the Braves took a big swing. They traded for an embarrassment of outfield riches to mend their tattered outfield: Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario (ED-DIE!, ED-DIE!), Joc Pederson, and Jorge Soler all came to the ATL [1]. How’d that work out for them? Well, Rosario won NLCS MVP, Soler World Series MVP (pretty sure it was mostly because of this), and Joc Pederson’s pearls made even grandmas envious. Moral of the story: be aggressive and be rewarded.
Were Derek Falvey and Co. aggressive enough this offseason? Well, it’s complicated. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard that they acquired arguably the top free agent on the market, Carlos Correa, and paid him the highest annual salary for an infielder ever [2]. That seems aggressive enough. They traded away 2019 Silver Slugger winner Mitch Garver and 2015 American League MVP Josh Donaldson, ultimately receiving back two serviceable everyday players and a bunch of open cap space (parting the waters for the Correa deal)[3]. Definitely aggressive, slightly risky. Their most glaring hole, however, was starting pitching. Due to the departure of Jose Berrios at the 2021 trade deadline (just a reminder in case you tuned out the team last year) and Kenta Maeda’s Tommy John surgery sidelining him for most, if not all of 2022, the Twins were basically left with two diaper dandies in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, who combined have only pitched in 25 Major League games for a total of 119 innings [4] [5]. Recognizing that five starters are generally required to field a team, Falvey brought in Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy, Chris Paddock (a trade that lost Minnesota their All-Star closer in Taylor Rogers), and Sonny Gray, four pitchers with varying levels of previous success; but due to injuries and natural decline from age, all are unlikely to perform at said levels. Throw in a couple moderate-impact bullpen moves, and Twins are where they are as Opening Day awaits. Sort of aggressive? 
So, were these moves enough to compete with the White Sox (don’t sleep on Detroit this year either) for the AL Central and possibly more in 2022? 
The Twins have an offense that will keep tomorrow’s starting pitcher awake at night. Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton (based on his spring, I’d just walk him every time this year), Jorge Polanco lead a group that is a force to be reckoned with. The jury’s still out on whether Max Kepler can be 2019 Max Kepler again, but I’d have no interest pitching to Miguel Sano’s biceps (he’s better than you think), Alex Kiriloff’s smooth stroke, or Luis Arraez’s slappy stick.
The bullpen should be fine. Losing Rogers definitely hurts, and you could make a legitimate argument that the Twins are worse off for this season than they were before the deal. Emilio Pagan arrived in the Rogers-Paddack deal, Caleb Thielbar was sneaky good last year, Joe Smith’s sidearm delivery can still baffle professional hitters, and a couple rookie flamethrowers could be x-factors.
And we’re back to starting pitching. Thankfully there is a full rotation now, but in order to really make the rotation stalwart, more was required. There were plenty of free agent aces available this winter, but the Twins waited out the market so as to not overpay, and ultimately lost out on all the big names: Robbie Ray, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Rodon all signed elsewhere [6]. On the other hand, in order to make a splash in the starting pitcher trade market, the Twins likely would have been asked to give up a considerable haul of their nearly-major-league-ready prospects in return, something they don’t seem willing to do. 
Maybe the Twins’ hesitation to really go all in on starting pitching is justified. Yes, Carlos Correa has an opt-out after each season of his contract, so he could jump ship if this team isn’t competitive enough to his liking. But considering the required cost to fill the rotation, coupled with multiple top pitching prospects chomping at the bit for their shot, maybe this year wasn’t the year to push all the chips in. Maybe doing enough to be relevant again while betting on some of those aforementioned, almost-ready, super-promising prospects to provide an impact was the right move.
This team will be fun and highly competitive (if they stay healthy, which is a big “if”) in an ever-weak AL Central. Winning consecutive division titles is harder than you think (just ask the 2021 Twins), so just because Chicago owned the division last year doesn’t guarantee anything. And don’t forget: all it takes is sneaking into October. Anything can happen then.

We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams.
The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either.
Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses.
Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71)
Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here.
Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76)
If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound.
Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95)
Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move.
Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92)
Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet.
Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85)
You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward.
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Well, THAT was a fun weekend in Twins Territory! Here are my jottings and scattered thoughts about the Correa signing and how it went down:
It was really fun to watch everyone learn about the signing in waves. You had the late-night crew who were up at about 2am Saturday morning when the news broke (*I* was not among this group), followed by the early morning crew who probably consists of people who wake up early for work Monday-Friday and can't sleep in on the weekends, followed by the later morning crew who either had really fun Friday nights or are just night owls. It really makes you wonder what that negotiating process looked like for the news to break at such an odd hour. The fact that there were no leaks/speculation from insiders preceding the signing made it extra exciting- it was a complete and total surprise. I don't want to be overly dramatic and say this is a "where were you when" moment, but for us, wasn't it though? I was among the early morning group who woke up to a multitude of ESPN/ Athletic/ Bleacher Report notifications and ecstatic texts and will not soon forget that moment. Let's say I woke up really fast.   With the barrage of parody insider accounts floating around Twitter, I'm sure some people thought they were being trolled for a few moments. Correa? To the Twins? Yeah, sure.  I love the Twins and baseball so much that I would be excited for the season regardless of projections or status of our lineup. But it feels great to be genuinely excited about something ABOVE and beyond that. We just got the top free agent in all of baseball! Take my money, Target Field box office!   Seriously though, in response to the signing, my brother texted me, "Lol I want to buy more tickets now," and I'm in the same boat. Yes, I sure did take advantage of that no ticket fees flash sale the Twins put on.  What a paradigm shift for this franchise that generally has not paid free agents. Now let's start making pitching moves. Return of the Bomba Squad!? I want a Correa jersey. But we'll need to wait until we receive word of the Nick Gordon vs Carlos Correa jersey #1 situation. Something tells me we will be seeing Correa wearing that #1 around the diamond.. Was I overly harsh on the front office? I'm going to go with no; no one could have expected us to land Correa. It really looked like for a while there we had downgraded at most positions (ie catcher, DH, and no viable starting shortstop). Given that the sole notable free agent move the Twins made before the lockout commenced was signing Dylan Bundy, who would've thought we'd be wheeling and dealing our way into finessing the Yankees AND landing Correa? Correa chose us. It's not like he was traded here against his will. Yes it's a strange contract he's receiving with those buyouts and I know he's trying to set himself up for his next big contract which, in his mind, may or may not be here, but he left the adoring masses in Houston nonetheless. Other teams in bigger markets would have been willing to pay him.  I still wish we had signed Michael Pineda and think it's a mistake we didn't do so; I already miss Big Mike. But more pitching moves have to be coming. Having this starting rotation with Correa on your roster is like having Ikea furniture in your Lake Minnetonka mansion. Time to upgrade.  I cannot wait to watch Correa in a Twins uniform this week, and I'm so excited for the applause he's going to draw on Opening Day Any other takeaways from you? What was your "where were you?" moment of the Correa signing?

Like Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach has failed to impress in his rookie season, but Larnach has a lot more wiggle room for many fans. Larnach is, after all, 2 years younger than Rooker and Larnach barely played above the A+ ball level with only 181 plate appearances in AA in 2019. The loss of the 2020 season made a mess out of a lot of the projections for prospects with the prospects who were getting their first taste of the high minors in AA probably being hit the hardest. Larnach’s production this year hasn’t been what fans had hoped for, but with his limited upper MiLB experience, there’s reason to hope it was bad luck or a single pitch that troubled him on way to his .223/.322/.350, .677 OPS, wRC+ 89, OPS+ 88, wOBA .301 performance across a significant 301 appearances at the plate.

Since Larnach doesn’t have the MiLB track record Rooker does, it’s important to take a peek at who Larnach was expected to be. Prior to his draft year in 2018, Larnach was a 40th round draft pick out of high school in 2015 and wasn’t considered a high round pick before his breakout junior season at Oregon State.
Year Level Age AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS 2016 Oregon St. Freshman .157 .271 .176 .019 .448 2017 Oregon St. Sophomore .303 .421 .429 .126 .850 2018 Oregon St. Junior .348 .463 .652 .304 1.116 2018 Rk / Low-A a21 .303 .390 .500 .197 .890 2019 A+ / AA a22 .309 .384 .458 .149 .842 2021 MLB a24 .223 .322 .350 .127 .672 2021 AAA a24 .176 .323 .373 .197 .695 After the draft, MLB.com had Larnach as the Twins’ 6th ranked prospect and gave him scouting grades as follows: Hit 55, Power 55, Run 40, Arm 55, Field 50, Overall 50. Larnach was widely considered a bat only prospect due to his poor speed limiting Larnach to projections of a serviceable defensive option in left field. Larnach’s hit tool was considered very advanced as he drove the ball hard off the bat, had experience in the Cape Cod league with wooden bats against high levels of competition and used the entire field which largely made him immune to shifts. That said, Larnach’s hit tool wasn’t considered plus-plus because of the fair amount of swing and miss at the plate. Once in college, Larnach had raw strength and bat speed from putting on 50lbs of weight to his high school frame, but his draft stock stayed low through his sophomore year as he needed to hit for power to generate high interest levels. When Larnach’s power appeared to blossom with 19 home runs in 2018 as a junior in a tough college division, scouts rocketed Larnach up the draft ranks despite the limited track record as it was always felt he had the potential to grow into the long ball. 
Unfortunately, Larnach’s swing looks to be more like Joe Mauer than Justin Morneau so the home run power hasn’t re-materialized and 2018’s long ball show is beginning to look more like an aberration than the norm. Larnach’s ceiling is likely far lower now, but it doesn’t mean he can’t provide value at the MLB level using only an advanced hit tool and serviceable defense in the corners; he’s just not going to be projecting as a regular All Star. That would still be a huge win for the front office. So let’s dive into the metrics to see what’s going on cause this year was ugly.

First off, was Larnach just unlucky in his first taste of the big show? Luck can bounce both ways and a half season worth of baseball can quickly shift around across a full season of plate appearances.
  AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA Actual .223 .322 .350 .672 .301 Expected* .208 .309 .369 .678 .304 *BaseballSavant has xBA at .209 which results in 54.34 hits, but since that’s not a real number, I rounded down to 54 hits. His xSLG was .368 which resulted in 95.68 bases so I rounded up to 96 for xSLG calcs. I used Larnach’s actual walks and hit by pitch numbers to calculate his new xOBP so I could calculate his xOPS.
There isn’t an obvious luck factor to see in the numbers. A few points of AVG loss is more than made up for by some SLG improvement. As a player who was touted as using the whole field, Larnach has been pretty pull heavy with a 39.9% / 33.5% / 26.6% pull, center, opposite ratio, from BaseballSavant, but it’s not a profile where the split would be particularly effective. Still, Fangraphs reports MLB teams frequently deployed the shift against Larnach anyway. None of Larnach’s home runs went to the opposite field this year with virtually everything in left field just winding up as a single. The lack of home runs and extra base hits is to be expected once Larnach’s batted ball data is reviewed; he’s been a heavy ground ball hitter at about 45% grounders. Fangraphs and BaseballSavant differ in the fly ball data with Fangraphs showing 35.4% vs. BaseballSavant’s 29.7%. Despite the relatively poor outcomes for Larnach, he does hit the ball fairly hard as advertised with an above average 90.0 mph exit velocity, and MLB average-ish 41.1% hard hit and 9.5% barrel rates according to Statcast metrics. Larnach’s reported launch angle should be a productive, but non-optimal 13.1* despite all the grounders. It’s also worth looking into his splits performance, since he is a lefty. In regard to that, he was utterly unplayable against LHP with a wRC+ of 44, but his performance against RHP isn’t truly good enough to justify a platoon role with a wRC+ of 109. It does provide some silver lining since southpaws throw less than 30% of innings at the MLB level. A step forward could make Larnach a platoon type player.
 
 
 All this brings us to plate discipline. Larnach’s solid enough 10.3% walk rate suggests he has a capable enough eye at the plate, but the 34.6% strikeout rate is well below MLB average so lets dig in here a bit. Warning… here’s where it goes off the rails. Larnach has a somewhat better than average O-swing% (swings outside the strike zone) which supports the argument for an MLB caliber eye at the plate shown in the chart.

However, the PitchFX and PitchInfo data from Fangraphs O-contact% rates at abysmal 38.2% and 32.9%, respectively. Expanding beyond the O-swing results shows Larnach is passive at the plate, swinging only 43.8% of the time (bottom 17.5%) with the 3rd worst contact rate among the 252 batters with 300+ plate appearances in MLB this year. Lending support to being passive at the plate, Larnach takes a called strike 18.1% of the time, which is more often than over 3/4 of other MLB batters. Honestly, it looks like Larnach is struggling to tell balls from strikes so he’s hoping for a walk or a meatball, but when he does swing, he often misjudges the pitch and winds up whiffing. In fact, whiffing more often than 96% of other MLB batters with 300+ plate appearances based on Fangraphs’ data. It’s bad. It’s real bad.

We know Larnach is struggling with pitch recognition based on the data, but is it a specific pitch or pitch category where he might be able to adjust his game to prevent being exposed? Unfortunately, no. Larnach crushes 4 seam fastballs, but he doesn’t really hit much else. The data from BaseballSavant shows he’s utterly outmatched by MLB secondary pitches in general.
  xBA xSLG xwOBA Whiff% Fastball .266 .515 .377 22.3 Breaking .155 .236 .260 55.0 Offspeed .158 .225 .192 54.0 Looking into Larnach’s run value by pitch on BaseballSavant shows Larnach cannot identify a changeup (18.4% of pitches), cannot handle sliders (19.0% of pitches) and also struggles greatly against sinkers (15.9% of pitches). Larnach has been a little better than MLB average against curveballs (11.3% of pitches), though. Essentially, don’t throw Larnach a 4 seamer or curveball and the opposing pitcher will probably be fine. It’s worth noting Fangraphs’ data from PitchFX and PitchInfo both back up BaseballSavant’s data. Comparing Larnach to other MLB hitters based on PitchFX data from Fangraphs, Larnach is in the bottom 5% for changeup and bottom 30% for the slider performance, but that’s a raw runs produced number without context of how many pitches he’s seen of each. Looking at BaseballSavant, Larnach is bottom 4% for changeup (7/175), 9% for slider (25/290) and 11% for sinker (25/245) per pitch seen, based on hitters with at least 50 plate appearances vs. those pitches. There are literally no pitches which Larnach produces positive value other than the 4 seam fastball… and maybe ever so slightly, the curveball depending on the source.
Defensively, Larnach’s speed is his limiting factor already at just age 24. Larnach’s sprint speed is 26.5ft/sec which is significantly below median for MLB or corner outfielders at 27.3 or 27.5ft/sec, respectively. That said, Larnach does accelerate to his top speed quickly and he’s been an average MLB route runner despite limited experience. This lives up to the scouting reports at draft day which said Larnach possesses good baseball instincts in the field to help make up for his disadvantage in speed. In addition, Larnach has arm strength which is graded above average which should help prevent base runners from confidently stretching their hits for another base or carelessly tagging to advance. Larnach is unlikely to ever be an average or plus defender on the field, but he may remain serviceable for a few years, especially with good positioning and a steady position to play.
Let’s summarize the good and bad here. On the good side of things, Larnach can clearly crush 4 seamers and was solid against curveballs despite his limited experience against high level pitching and loss of the 2020 season for development against full competition. Pitchers looking to get an out aren’t going to be able to do it with Larnach at the plate simply by throwing heat past him as he’ll catch up to it and make them pay and woe be the righty pitcher who with a 4 seamer and curveball as their bread and butter. When Larnach makes contact with his swings, he hits the ball a little better than the MLB average hitter with good exit velocity and he was able to accomplish those things despite having very little experience at the high MiLB level. Larnach’s instincts in the field are good, he makes the most of his physical abilities and the combination of skills and ability allow him to play corner outfield effectively enough so he’s not a glorified DH at this point in his career. Furthermore, Larnach was just getting a good taste of AA before the lost 2020 season and his call up to the MLB squad was potentially hastened by other player injuries, perhaps a bit earlier than the Twins wanted. With encouraging numbers from AA in 2019, the 2021 campaigns struggles may just be a bad season influenced by confidence issues and Larnach is still relatively young coming into his age 25 season next year. Finally, Larnach has plenty of MLB options left to give him room to take a step forward. Of course, that’s the optimistic view. On the not good side, Larnach is not particularly young for a prospect, either as he approaches the end point for prospect status at age 25, and while he did lose out on 2020 in terms of professional seasons, he was part of the Twins alternate site where he got a lot of valuable coaching time. Larnach was arguably more advanced than other college juniors when he was drafted because of his experience in the Cape Cod league which uses wooden bats and he was scouted as a polished bat who wouldn’t need much time to get up to MLB ready. He’s had some time now and his small, but somewhat  relevant sample size from his demotion to AAA wasn’t encouraging. There’s a big difference between AA and AAA when it comes to location and refinement of pitches, the polish, so to speak. There are a lot of players who can’t make that adjustment and given how poorly Larnach handled MLB pitches, it may not be a coincidence he wasn’t able to hit in AAA. In fact, Larnach was totally and completely outmatched by most pitches MLB pitchers throw and his track record, age, current swing and batted ball data don’t leave a lot of room for power projection so being the kind of hitter who can simply punish any mistake for a home run like Sano doesn’t seem like it’s in the cards. 
Clearly, it would be foolish to write Trevor Larnach off at this point, but there's good reason to cool his stock dramatically. Let's hope he can make some adjustments to prove this data isn't the norm and he just had a bad season!
 

We often comment on whether current Twins are good, average or bad hitters by using OPS. The problem I see is we're using a broad average for everyone not broken down by position. I looked around the Internet and found an article in ScoreSheetWiz where the author had taken the average of the top 30 players in each position over the last 3 years and averaged their OPS. That should give you what the average starter in MLB does at that position by taking out emergency fill ins, utility players,  etc. and sounds like a good basis for comparison. Here's the comparison to current Twins, based on their performance for this season to date. I've also put their career OPS in parenthesis with the YTD comparison where they'd been around long enough to make that meaningful. The positions go from lowest to highest by MLB average OPS. 
Position Average OPS Current Twin OPS/(Career) Difference Catcher .748 Garver .889 (.834) Plus .151 (+ .86)     Jeffers .720 Minus .028 Shortstop .749 Simmons .576 (.688) Minus .173 (-.061) Second Base .763 Polanco .797 (.774) Plus .034 (+.011) Centerfield .777 Buxton 1.176 (.751) Plus .409 (-.026)     Kepler .759 Minus .018 Third Base .805 Donaldson .840 (.875) Plus .035 (+.070)     Arraez .747 (.793) Minus .058 (-.012) Corner OF .819 Kepler .722 (.759) Minus .097 (-060)     Larnach .676 Minus .143     Rooker .750 Minus .069 First Base .859 Kirilloff .722 Minus .137     Sano .746 (.819) Minus .113 (-.040) I thought this was kind of interesting and helps explain where our holes are forward. For example, Arraez is a below average hitting starter this year either at 3rd or left-field, about average in 2nd base, but career wise above average at 2nd base, average at 3rd, and below average for corner outfield. Since he adds no surplus defensive value, he really needs to OPS >.800 if he's not going to play 2nd base. Kepler is a little tougher to evaluate since his bat is clearly significantly below average for a corner outfielder, and a little below average for centerfielder, but he does offer surplus defensive value in a corner outfield spots, not so much centerfield. That's why I think is an ideal 3rd or 4th outfielder, but not 1 of our top 2. The 2 Rookies are way below average but this is their 1st year so you hope for improvement and it's a small sample size. Same for Kirilloff. Sano is also a below average hitting starter at 1st Base who doesn't offer any surplus defensive value. I didn't bother with guys like Jake Cave (.508 (.735)) or Willians Astudillo (.721 (.738)) since they are way below an average starter unless they play shortstop, and even then they're not very strong. Both are classic back end roster filler and we should be looking for upgrades like Gordon, Refsnyder and others.
I do think this helps explain why we're having trouble scoring runs. We only have 3 above average hitters for their position now that Cruz is gone, Donaldson, Polanco and Garver, and only Polanco really plays every day. Most days we're liable to only have 2 players who are average or better hitters for their position. The batting order is really weighed down by poor performance at the corner outfield spots, centerfield when Buxton isn't there (even worse when someone other than Kepler is playing centerfield), and shortstop.
I guess this tells me 4 things 1st, re-sign Buxton. He is critical to the order. 2nd, I was wrong about Donaldson. He is pretty valuable at the plate and Arraez is not an adequate replacement. 3rd, we need better hitting corner outfielders and Kepler is not the answer. The current strategy of playing Rooker and Larnach every day is the right one because those guys have to improve to give us more balance in the order. 4th, Arraez is probably best used as a utility player with Polanco the better hitter and better fielder at 2nd base. He's a good utility player, more of an average hitter for a starter, and we can get him 400 – 500 bats to utilize his on-base skills by playing him at a variety of spots.
We talk a lot about how the pitching has to improve to truly contend. I postulate the lineup has to improve as well. I think most contending have average or better hitters for their positions in at least 5 or 6 of the 9 spots. We have 4 if you assume that someone like that Cruz is the DH, a position where I was unable to find an average OPS. otherwise 3. The current lineup isn't good enough to compete and absolutely isn't good enough if the pitching is below average. Helps explain this year's performance and helps us know what we need to do for next year.

When the Minnesota Twins set out to supplement their roster this offseason a couple of different areas presented themselves as needs. Starting pitching will always remain one as you can never have enough, but the organization is in rarefied air.
 
Following his signing with the Houston Astros it’s more than fair to suggest the Twins would’ve been well-served to wait out Jake Odorizzi. He clearly over-anticipated his market however and found a landing spot only after Framber Valdez dealt a blow to Dusty Baker’s starting rotation. Instead, Minnesota went with a one-year deal to Matt Shoemaker that set the club back just $2 million. At the time, and even now, that has the makings of a pretty shrewd move.
 
If you’re at all familiar with Shoemaker’s track record you know this, he hasn’t been available often. Across seven full Major League seasons he’s made 15 or more starts just three times, while failing to reach double digits in each of the past three. Injury issues have plagued him, but it’s worth noting that the injuries haven’t been arm related. In hoping for a regression to the fluky nature that has kept him sidelined, you have to take note of the production that has been there.
 
Back in 2016 was the last time Shoemaker threw more than 100 innings. Across 27 starts that year he posted a 3.88 ERA backed by a 3.51 FIP and an 8.0 K/9. It was the third year in a row in which he’d tallied both 20 starts and 130+ innings pitched. In that time, he owned a 3.80 ERA with a 3.77 FIP and an 8.0 K/9. When available the veteran has been incredibly consistent. He’s good for a high-threes ERA while striking out right around eight per nine and being very stingy on the free passes. Even as a third starter that would play, and he’ll pitch out of the Minnesota five-hole.
 

 
What’s maybe most important for the Twins in all of this isn’t even what Shoemaker himself brings to the table, but rather what he affords the club in regards to those around him. Randy Dobnak has started a Postseason game, Lewis Thorpe is a former top prospect that has been the darling of Spring Training, and the duo of Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are close. That doesn’t even touch on Devin Smeltzer, who has Major League experience as well. None of them will factor into the rotation on Opening Day.
 
In 2020 Rocco Baldelli had 11 different players starts a game (two of which were openers). For the Bomba Squad a year prior, 10 different players made starts (one of which was an opener). Depth is something every team must have in the rotation, and that will probably ring truer than ever coming off such a shortened schedule a season ago. Because of what this front office has done in the development department, the Twins could be more prepared now than they ever have been before.
 
A year ago, the Twins posted the 5th best fWAR among starters in baseball. That improved upon a 7th place finish in 2019. Derek Falvey had long been considered a pitching guru for his time in Cleveland, and he’s quickly carried that acumen to a new organization. I’m not sure who will contribute what, and which starters will be there at the end, but you can bet the stable is right where the organization feels comfortable when it comes to pieces at their disposal.
 
Maybe Matt Shoemaker only gives his new club something like ten starts in 2021. That’s still more than Rich Hill or Homer Bailey a season ago, and the flexibility he provides the Twins in terms of additional depth is a bonus that can’t be overstated. Let him be healthy because he’s been good when available. When the time comes to make a change, options will be plentiful.
 
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There’s no doubt that the Falvey/Levine regime in Minnesota has stamped the organization with its own unique culture and identity. Since their arrival in advance of the 2020 season, leadership has taken the holistic approach needed to bring an organization like the Twins up to speed, to become and remain a competitor.
Falvey and Levine have focused their systematic overhaul on a number of key areas - individual development plans for players, innovative and creative coaching hires, and building out an incredibly robust analytical department.
 
A maxim Falvey has used since his arrival in Minnesota is his desire to build a sustainable winner, an annually playoff bound team with enough organizational and prospect depth to remain a perennial challenger. In recent years, fans have seen this strategy play out through their approach to free agency, signing high floor, veteran adds on short term deals to accent the homegrown core, built upon by the gambit of signing Josh Donaldson last offseason. Another key trend of the front office has been taking advantage of market depth, something exemplified by their inking Andrelton Simmons to a 1 year, $10.5 million contract on Tuesday night.
To explore this, let’s examine the corner outfield situation in 2017, the year Falvey and Lavine arrived, to today. While Simmons and Donaldson would have been an all time left side of the infield 3-5 years ago, they still provide a telling contrast defensively between then and now.
 
In 2017, the Twins corner infield consisted of Miguel Sano and Eduardo Escobar at 3rd and Jorge Polanco and Ehire Adrianza at SS. This quarter combined in 2017 for an OAA -5 collectively. By contrast, in 2019, the last full season in which Donaldson and Simmons were relatively healthy, they combined for 25 OAA.
Looking at fielding range provides an even more stark contrast. In 2017, the Twins left side quarter combined for a UZR/150 of -26.2, while in 2019, Donaldson and Simmons combined for UZR/150 of 15.9. Clearly, these aren’t apples to apples comparisons, but the point remains, the 2021 Twins left side of the infield, if healthy, is elite, where it used to be a legitimate weakness.
 
The positive defensive outcomes Twins fans are hoping for will be dependent on many factors, not least of which, is the health (calves and ankles) of their infielders. What is interesting, is what the combination continues to prove about Falvey and Levine, that they will continue to prioritize organizational flexibility and market depth to improve the team. While this slow and late approach hasn’t always worked out for the team (see Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn), the Twins front office continues to build a case that they are adept and nimble in constructing and regenerating their roster, a recipe for sustained success.

You could call him a former Uber driver, but you’d be selling it short. You could call him a prospect, but he probably never garnered that status. Instead, Randy Dobnak is a self-made grinder that went from small-college West Virginia to one of the best pitchers on a staff that supports one of Major League Baseball’s best teams.
 
After spending the better part of three seasons in the minor leagues as an undrafted free agent, Dobnak will toe the rubber tonight in what equates to his backyard. From South Park, Pennsylvania, Dobnak takes the ball for the Minnesota Twins against his hometown Pittsburgh Pirates. Something out of a storybook, this narrative couldn’t have played out better, but if you haven’t been expecting it you might also have not been watching.
 
Pitching for three different levels in the Minnesota Twins minor league system last season Dobnak posted a 2.07 ERA 7.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. No level was too big for him, and each stop he made the job continued to get done. Then he was promoted to the majors and got even better. With the Twins a year ago Dobnak owned a 1.59 ERA 7.3 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. After putting just 28.1 IP under his belt at the highest level, he was called upon to pitch game two of the American League Division Series against the New York Yankees.
 
Despite all of the success a year ago, nothing was guaranteed for 2020. Dobnak was on the outside looking in when it came to a rotation spot or even a big-league job. The Twins had acquired the likes of Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, and Homer Bailey to round out the rotation. COVID-19 had threatened the season as a whole, and the man with the mustache became somewhat of a forgotten commodity once again.
 
Now two turns through the rotation in 2020, Dobnak is reminding those around the sport once again, his title is Major League Pitcher. He owns a 1.00 ERA allowing a single run in nine innings on six hits. He’s fanned seven and given up an uncharacteristic four walks. When he steps on the mound in the bottom half of the first inning at PNC Park however, none of that will matter. It’ll be another night of work for a guy that’s become a lunch pail type ready to get the job done each time he’s tasked with doing so.
 
Although every team is looking for their ace that throws 100 mph and blows the doors of every batter they see, it’s clear there’s different ways to get the job done at the highest level. Dobnak knows who he is as a pitcher, and that’s probably why he continues to see success. One of the most light-hearted personalities you’ll see postgame, Randy genuinely enjoys playing baseball and his mental makeup allows him to never let the moment get too big.
 
Tonight, some of his biggest fans including his wife and dad won’t be in attendance. In fact, no one will be. I can’t imagine that Randy envisioned his first start in Pittsburgh to be without anyone in the stadium, but you can bet there will be plenty of eyes glued on him attending from their couches. It’s a moment he’s earned, one that he won’t allow to get bigger than him, and if any previous indications are to be believed, one he’ll rise to the occasion of.
 
Every team in baseball would like to have a Randy Dobnak. Someone unphased by the situation, routinely able to produce, and always willing to soak it all in. Unfortunately, not all Uber drivers turn out to be Major League Pitchers.
 
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I was reading MLB.com’s list - 1 possible Deadline upgrade for every team – and thinking about the Twins. Our trade was for a left handed reliever which I do think is a big item. However here are some intriguing trade options for Rooker, Kiriloff, Larnach since we seem quite set in the OF
 
Needs:
Blue Jays – OF
Indians – OF – wrong division – sorry
Tigers – a bat (wrong division, but they are the Tigers and they like ex-Twins)
Athletics – 2B (Lewis?)
Mariners – C
Rangers – 1B/3B – maybe Rooker
Nationals – 1B – Rooker?
Brewers – 3B – Blankenhorn?
Cardinals – impact bat
Cubs – rp – anyone still sorry we did not sign Kimbrel?
Pirates – C
Giants – C
Padres – impact bat
 
 
These teams would want pitching – not going to trade with them:
Orioles
Rays left handed rp
Yankees – sp
Red Sox – sp
Royals – sp
White Sox – sp
Angels – sp
Astros – sp
Reds - rp
Braves – sp
Marlins – rp
Mets – sp
Phillies – rp
Diamondbacks – sp
Dodgers – sp – sorry no returns
Rockies – rp
 
 
That is the MLB summary. Unless we think we have excess rp we are not in on the second list and I do not think we have a Catcher to give unless it is Telis.

The history of baseball in Beloit will not end after the 2020 season, but that’s nothing new.
 
For the past four years, Quint and Rishy Studer, both from just up highway 51 in Janesville, have worked diligently to ensure that baseball remains in Beloit.
 
It is of great credit that the Snappers Community Board has kept baseball in place in Beloit, and their hard work is now being rewarded. A new ballpark is coming to Beloit, with the Studers and Riverbend Stadium Group joining with community leader Diane Hendricks to make it happen.
 
To the Studers and many local citizens, this isn’t a business deal. This isn’t about revenue or return on investment.
 
This is about a community, a hometown, and the impact the game of baseball can have to improve lives. This is about ensuring that Quint and Rishy’s children and grandchildren, who still reside twenty minutes away in Janesville, can join families across southern Wisconsin in enjoying sunny afternoons at the ballpark. This is about revitalizing a downtown and bringing a newfound vibrancy to a city.
 
Twenty years ago, the Studers encountered a similar situation in Pensacola, Florida, a city Quint’s career in healthcare had brought the couple to. Just days after they’d attended a Pensacola Pelicans game, a first-year, upstart independent league team in the Southeastern League, they noticed an ad in the local newspaper: the team was for sale.
 
Not even half-way through the team’s inaugural season, the owner was already pulling out. If a new owner didn’t step up, professional baseball would be gone in Pensacola quicker than it had started.
 
Unwilling to let that happen, the Studers bought the team. They spent their weekends at the ballpark, setting up folding chairs in the stands themselves before each game and carrying them away after.
 
Two years later, the league itself folded, and baseball in Pensacola could have easily gone with it. Instead, the Studers purchased a failing franchise in the Central Baseball League and inserted the Pelicans in their place.
 
Throughout their first season in the CBL, it was clear the league was struggling. To keep baseball in Pensacola, the Studers took extraordinary steps, at times paying the salaries and travel expenses of other teams in the league to ensure games would continue being played in Pensacola.
 
The league folded at the end of the year. Again, an opportunity to walk away. Again, the Studers refused.
The Pelicans joined the American Association, traveling as far as Saint Paul, Minnesota to play the Saints.
 
Simply having a baseball team wasn’t enough. Pensacola needed a downtown community gathering place to return business to a stagnant local economy. The Pelicans, playing at a small local college, drew a lot of fans, but not to Pensacola’s downtown area in need of revitalization.
 
So, the Studers set off on a multi-year quest to build a downtown ballpark, facing outspoken critics, insults, and red tape.
 
It took six years of referendums and tens of millions of dollars of their own money, but in 2012, the ballpark opened, transforming a parcel of waste-covered ocean-side property that the local newspaper referred to as a ‘contaminated eyesore’ into one of America’s premier minor league facilities. With it came an affiliated franchise.
 
Less than a decade later, Pensacola’s economy has been kickstarted. Property values surrounding the stadium have jumped more than 35%. Millions of dollars returned downtown as new businesses opened around the ballpark, bringing thousands of jobs to the sector. Tourism has reached historic levels. The city was named the Strongest Town in America by Strong Towns in 2019.
 
Even as the team has established itself as one of the most successful businesses in minor league sports, the Studers have refused to take a paycheck from the business they invested tens of millions of their money into. Instead, all profits of the team are re-invested in the community, helping fund a children’s hospital, scholarships, early-childhood education, and other philanthropic efforts across the city.
 
That’s the kind of impact they hope keeping baseball in Beloit will have on the town.
 
Beloit currently sits in the same place that Pensacola sat throughout the 2000s, unsure if its hometown baseball team will remain. The Snappers’ place on the recently released list of minor league teams facing elimination and questions about the economic viability of baseball in the area have made it seem unlikely that an investment group like the one formed by the Studers, Diane Hendricks, and Riverbend Stadium Group would step up.
 
But, when the goal isn’t to profit, but to create a beautiful community gathering place, to spur economic development downtown, and to offer affordable, family-friendly entertainment to a city, the dollars and cents don’t have to make sense.
 
A new stadium is coming to Beloit and baseball is staying.

Game one has come and gone. The Twins fell 10-4 in 8 1/2 gut wrenching innings. Manager Rocco Baldelli will send Randy Dobnak to the hill in game two today at Yankee Stadium. Here are the keys to victory for the standout rookie:
 
1. Get ahead in the count
 
Dobnak has portrayed an exceptional ability to throw strikes. Dobnak sports phenomenal per-nine numbers: 1.6 BB, 7.3 K, and 0.3 HR. His unique ability to limit fly balls gives him a substantial advantage at Yankee Stadium. When Dobnak gets ahead in the count, he allows a .180/.196/.180 (.376) line to opponents. Like most teams, the Yankees struggle when behind. They hit just .209/.217/.366 (.583) when pitchers have the advantage in the count. The Bronx Bombers look awfully human when they see a few more strikes than balls on the scoreboard. In an 0-2 count, the Yankees have a .138 average and .390 OPS.
 
2. Win the first pitch
 
This may be a piggyback of the above, but this start could be a war of the first pitch. Dobnak has held opponents to a .494 OPS on the first pitch. The Yankees have a 1.157 OPS on the first pitch. These are extreme numbers on both ends, and the winner of this battle will have a huge advantage.
 
3. Be himself
 
Dobnak is here for a reason. Starting the year at Class A, the rookie has pitched well at every turn. Dobnak has gotten better at almost every level. He posted a 0.40 ERA in Fort Myers (A), 2.57 ERA in Pensacola (AA), 2.15 ERA in Rochester (AAA), and an impressive 1.59 ERA for the Twins. Baldelli trusts him, and Twins Territory should too.
 
Go Twins! Enjoy the game!

Taking a view at the Major League Baseball Postseason there’s an incredible number of great storylines to follow. You have the lowest payroll in baseball making the field, a major league record setting home run lineup, and a handful of expected participants. For the next month we’ll be treated to the culmination of a 162-game schedule used to produce only the best of the best.
 
Looking back at how I saw things entering the year, I didn’t do too horribly. Looks like I’ll nail a couple of award winners, and four of the six division champs. From there things went downhill, but this is our chance to get it right in October. Let’s get into it.
 
Wild Card Round:
Rays over Athletics
Nationals over Brewers
 
We’ve got two intriguing matchups for a one-game situation here. In the American League Tampa Bay is probably the most welcoming team of needing to win a single game. They’ve pieced together nine inning affairs all season long and they still have frontline pitching in the rotation to come out firing. I like the Oakland lineup a good deal more than what Tampa brings to the table but believe that this game will be won on the bump.
 
In the National League we get two teams that got hot down the stretch. Milwaukee is without their MVP, and the pitching is a definite question mark there, but they’ve had some key contributors step up in big ways. I liked the Nationals as a World Series team before the season started, and I still wouldn’t be shocked if they made a run. Their rotation rivals that of the Houston Astros at the top, and the lineup is filled with guys that can burn you. There’s zero denying the bullpen is a complete mess, but if they could provide some room for the starting arms, they’ll ride them hard.
 
Divisional Round:
Twins over Yankees
Astros over Rays
Braves over Cardinals
Dodgers over Nationals
 
Arguably the greatest narrative going into the Postseason is the history Minnesota brings with it. They haven’t won a game in October since 2004, and they’ve been dominated by the New York Yankees. One thing about that rings certain though, it’s history and you can bet no one in that clubhouse gives a damn. The pitching matchups, rotation and bullpen, are relatively even. So, to are lineups that went one-two in home run production this season. James Paxton being a lefty against the powerful righty Twins lineup will set the stage in game one. If the Twins steal one in New York, and they’ve been great on the road, this series will get interesting quick.
 
I don’t think you can make much argument against Houston being the best team in baseball. They have the rotation, bullpen, and lineup to compete with anyone. Charlie Morton will do his best against his former team, but I’m not sure that Tampa has the lineup to hang with the Astros over the course of a five-game series. The pitching matchups with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow contributing are going to be great, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this be a bit of a test for A.J. Hinch’s club.
 
If there’s a team that could surprise in the National League, I think it’s the Braves. They’re filled with youth that’s contributing in big ways, and their lineup is as potent as anyone. Josh Donaldson has re-emerged as a star, and his presence with Freddie Freeman should provide plenty of veteran leadership for Brian Snitker’s club. St. Louis performed admirably down the stretch to put themselves in this position, but I’m not sure they were tested in the NL Central. They’ll take a game or two, but just don’t see enough here for any real noise.
 
I’d still love to put the Nationals in a position to make the World Series, and while Los Angeles has some bullpen woes of their own, I just don’t trust Washington enough behind their three horses. Juan Soto is going to be fun on a big stage, but the Dodgers are littered with talent and they’ll pull the right strings to advance. Dave Roberts has been here plenty, and wanting to get over the hump, this is probably his best opportunity.
 
Championship Round:
Astros over Twins
Dodgers over Braves
 
There’s a significant amount of parallels between Houston and Minnesota. Similarly constructed organizations at this point, the Twins are still looking at the Astros in a light of what they aspire to be. In a seven-game series when Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke can all take the ball twice if need be, Rocco Baldelli’s piecemeal rotation is going to be up against it. Minnesota is going to need to blast their way to victories at the hitter friendly Minute Maid, but they’ll be doing it against arms that have no intention of giving up runs. It will be fun to see the Twins garner this experience, and while nothing is certain next year, there’s a good deal of returning youth that can use it as fuel to a fire propelling them to take the next step.
 
A toss up goes to the favorite here. If the Dodgers pen is going to be exposed before the World Series, this is the lineup capable of doing it. Atlanta is the real deal offensively, and while they’ll face Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, there’s no one they’re going to be afraid of. Cody Bellinger could have wrapped up an MVP when the regular season concluded, and though he slowed down some in stretches this year, elevating when the lights are brightest wouldn’t be unexpected for the young star.
 
Two top seeds matching up together, the two best teams in baseball for much of the year, let me have it.
 
World Series:
Astros over Dodgers
 
Just too good to get knocked off, and too hungry to be denied, Houston gets back to the top of the baseball world. Houston didn’t revamp their whole way of operating and develop this much talent to win one title. After falling short in 2018, they’ll get their second ring in three years. Alex Bregman looks like an MVP candidate, Yordan Alvarez is the unquestioned AL Rookie of the Year, and there’s a host of veterans that make this the most dangerous organization in the sport. I don’t expect a veteran club like the Dodgers to put up anything short of a difficult test, but Houston would need to get in their own way to come up empty handed here.
 
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Soon enough the 2019 Twins Daily Twins Awards will be published. I was excited to be part of the balloting process and wanted to release by ballot with quick explanations behind my decisions.
 
Rookie of Year:
1. Arraez
2. Littell
3. Harper
 
I'll be shocked if Arraez isn't the unanimous first place vote. Littell definitely made his case, especially late, but Arraez was the spark plug in one of the best offenses in The League. The fact that Ryne Harper, who actually did okay, got my 3rd place vote shows how little the Twins relied on rookies this year.
 
Most Improved:
1. Garver
2. Polanco
3. Max Kepler
 
In my opinion, this is a toss up for the three above. You could easily add Duffey to the mix here too. You'll see this reflected in my MVP voting but I was a catcher growing up and believe it's the most important position on the field, so Garver gets my vote. Kepler showed signs last year of big improvements, so I had Polanco over him.
 
Pitcher of the Year:
1. Rogers
2. Duffey
3. May
4. Pineda
 
Man, this was tough but throughout the year Rogers was the most consistent pitcher, and no I'm not just talking out of the bullpen. Duffey and May were two of the best relievers in baseball when it mattered most but if it wasn't for his suspension, Pineda probably would have been at number two for me.
 
Most Valuable Player:
1. Garver
2. Kepler
3. Polanco
4. Cruz
5. Sano
6. Rogers
 
Did I tell you have I a bias towards catchers? Honestly, my 1-4 could have been in any order but ultimately landed with Garver on top for reasons previously mentioned. Kepler over Polanco and Cruz because of the the defense he added and Polanco over Cruz for his defensive contributions although he had some really tough stretches this year. Sano would have been higher for me, probably #2 or #3, but just missed too many games at the beginning of the season. Rogers makes the list but that could have been recency bias as Eddie was in the midst of an ugly month of September. In general, I find it hard to give an MVP vote to a player who plays in so few games compared to offensive players.
 
Would love to hear what your ballot would look like and what you think of mine!