Nash Walker

The free-agent frenzy before last week’s lockout left the Twins needing more. There remains plenty of work to do, with a finite number of options. Here are three: 1. SPREAD IT AROUND This is the most likely option. The Twins have averaged $127 million in payroll since 2018, per FanGraphs. They currently have a projected $91 million committed to the 2022 roster. That means there’s roughly $35 million to spend to return to a respectable level. At first glance, that seems like a lot, but of course, it depends on how you spend it. Signing Zack Greinke ($12M), Michael Pineda ($8M), Andrelton Simmons ($6M), and a couple of relievers for a combined $10 million gets you to that sweet spot. Would those signings instill any confidence that 2022 will be different? Probably not. This plan would likely accompany the idea that the Twins have many starting pitching prospects coming and want to give them a look early. Keeping Greinke and Pineda on one-year deals doesn’t retain any commitment if prospects upend them. Again, something like this feels likely. 2. INVEST IN WINNING Route one is an example of spending $35 million as boring as possible. Here’s a way to make it much more appealing. Start by getting serious about Carlos Rodón, the best remaining starter on the market and a high-risk, high-reward option. Let’s say he costs $16 million per season for however many years it takes to secure him. Then follow that with a trade for Oakland Athletics starter Frankie Montas, one of the most electric young pitchers in the game. Montas will earn a projected $5.2 million in 2022, his second year of arbitration. In another blockbuster, acquire Sonny Gray from the Cincinnati Reds. Gray is under contract for $10.7 million in 2022 with a club option for 2023. After acquiring three legit frontline starters, a stopgap shortstop like José Iglesias makes sense on a one-year, $4 million deal. Finally, find a right-handed reliever with upside for $2-3 million. Now you’re looking at a rotation fronted by Rodón, Montas, Gray and rounded out with Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan. The final payroll in this scenario would remain under $140 million. Of course, the Twins would lose prospect capital but would undoubtedly be an absolute threat in 2022 and 2023. 3. BARE BONES There’s a chance the Twins are heading for a complete cost-saving slice in 2022. That would probably include trading Josh Donaldson, perhaps followed by Miguel Sanó. Third base would likely be taken over primarily by José Miranda, while Alex Kirilloff spends most of his time at first base with Trevor Larnach in the outfield. The rotation would front someone like Zach Davies on a one-year, $6.5 million deal. Looking for more bargains, the Twins could add former Cardinal Carlos Martínez for cheap and bring back Pineda as a steady presence. Shortstop would be handled for a year by Simmons, Iglesias, or Nick Ahmed in a trade. Needing relief help, the Twins may turn to Hansel Robles-like additions to fill out the bullpen. Payroll would probably reach the $105-110 range, depending on how much Donaldson’s (and Sanó’s) contracts remain. The Twins would be young, inexperienced, and likely poor. However, if this means payroll reaches $145-150 million when the Twins expect to be competitive again, is it worth playing the kids prematurely? What do you think is the most likely path? Which path would you like to see them take? Which direction will make them the most entertaining in 2022? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Byron Buxton’s health will once again play a huge role for the Twins in 2022. Of equal importance, though, is whether it will matter if he does stay healthy. It has to count. Whenever a team signs a star in their prime, the pressure automatically mounts. Not just the stress of success, but the heat on how the team will build around that star. Will the Angels ever give Mike Trout enough pitching to win? Can the Phillies build enough strength around Bryce Harper? There’s a constant clock tick, tick, ticking. Trout, 30, has nine years remaining on his deal. How many more years can the Angels expect healthy, MVP-level production? Harper, 29, just won MVP for a Philadelphia team that missed the playoffs once again. $300+ million contracts considerably impact spending, even for teams like the Phillies, Angels, and Yankees. For one, that’s a lot of money on the books for a long time. Additionally, teams must supplement the stars they sign with other All-Star level players. For the Twins, a club that just handed out the second-largest contract in team history, the situation is the same. On a per-game basis, Byron Buxton is in the same tier as his $300 million counterparts. The only thing keeping him from that status is his injury history. Now that Minnesota decided Buxton is the building block, the front office must work to avoid wasting his prime. Buxton, 27, will never combine his elite speed and power more than now. In other words, this is likely the best version of Buxton we’ll ever see. Consider this scenario. The Twins continue to sit around in free agency and on the trade market and fail to muster enough pitching to compete in 2022. Let’s say, on top of that, Buxton plays 140 games and wins MVP. This situation is plausible. While Buxton is one of the most impactful players in MLB, he is only one player. See Harper, Bryce and Trout, Mike. By signing this deal, Buxton commits to a team coming off a last-place finish with an unknown road ahead. If he’s healthy, a gamble the Twins have already decided to make; they have to make it matter. Here’s how they can: 1. SIGN CARLOS RODÓN Rumored to be involved in his sweepstakes, the Twins have an opportunity to add an ace for a cheaper-than-usual price tag. Rodón’s injury history is enough to scare off even the riskiest of teams. He barely got through the 2021 season with dwindling velocity and more arm problems. The healthy version of Rodón was the best pitcher in the league, posting a 2.37 ERA and 35% strikeout rate in 132 2/3 innings. He’s the exact type of gamble a team like the Twins should make. 2. TRADE FOR CHRIS BASSITT Bassitt has the American League’s lowest ERA over the last two seasons (min. 200 innings) and is reportedly available. He works with a deep repertoire of pitches with clear room for improvement. He’d immediately join Rodón as a duo rivaling Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito as the best in the division. 3. RE-SIGN MICHAEL PINEDA Pineda had some hiccups over his three years with the Twins, but he was rock-solid and often gave them a chance to win. Pineda’s 3.80 ERA since 2019 is enough to run back for more. A top three of Rodón, Bassitt, and Pineda would enter the season as one of the best the Twins have ever had. (at least since the season they had Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda atop their rotation) What do you think? Does the Byron Buxton extension put more pressure on 2022? Do you like these moves? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Oakland Athletics have three starters who’re reportedly available in trades. Does left-hander Sean Manaea offer the best value of the group? THE PLAYER The Royals picked Manaea out of Indiana State in the first round of the 2013 draft. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 66th-best prospect in baseball following a solid 2014 season. Manaea, 29, is listed at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, an imposing presence on the mound. The Royals traded Manaea to Oakland midway through 2015 for eventual World Series Champion Ben Zobrist, who went 20-for-66 with eight doubles and two homers in the playoffs. It was a win-win trade. Manaea made an immediate impact upon his arrival to the majors in 2016. He’s been a regular mid-rotation starter for over 700 innings, posting a 3.86 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 21% strikeout rate. Manaea’s ERA+ of 113 since 2018 tops free agents Kevin Gausman (111), Robbie Ray (111), and Jon Gray (104). The lefty works with three pitches, a low-90s sinker, a plus changeup, and a slurvy curveball. Manaea’s changeup was a top-six changeup in baseball in 2021, per Statcast’s run value. Like potential pitch mix adjustments with Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas, a bump on Manaea’s current 24% changeup usage could help him miss more bats and get more outs. THE COST Maybe the most appealing factor in a Manaea trade is the cost, at least compared to Bassitt and Montas. Manaea is a lesser pitcher and projects to make the most in arbitration ($10.2 million). He’s a free agent after 2022. He’s not a frontline starter, but Manaea would become the Twins’ best pitcher and provide stability at a reasonable price. MLB Trade Simulator curiously values Manaea over Bassitt, but it’s close enough. The tool says the Twins would need to send RHP Jhoan Duran, SS Keoni Cavaco, OF Misael Urbina, RHP Drew Strotman, or trade of similar value. There’s an argument to be made that the Twins should not be seeking one-year stopgaps at the expense of high-upside prospects. They don’t have a competitive roster, and keeping as much young talent as possible is vital. On the flip side, the Twins still have plenty of solid position players, and they should receive help from top pitching prospects in 2022. A deal for Manaea (and subsequent moves) would give them a fighting chance in 2022. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

Hey Tony&Rodney!! I appreciate you sharing your thoughts here!! Your deal for Meyer and Cabrera is especially interesting. The Meyer connection is clear: he's a Minnesota kid and was rumored to be available at the deadline. I would be shocked if the Marlins traded Alcantara after the year he just had, but never say never. López seems like a viable target too. To me, though, Meyer is the guy. They have so much young pitching, Meyer dominated Double-A last year and isn't far off. I think he could be up in mid-2022. It's a great get for the future and for the fans whom value the Twins investing in MN players.

The Oakland Athletics are reportedly shopping their veteran starters. Is Frankie Montas a viable target for the Twins? No American League starter with at least 200 innings pitched over the last two seasons has a lower ERA than Chris Bassitt. Even then, the most intriguing starter for the Athletics is Frankie Montas. THE PLAYER Montas, 28, is coming off a terrific season where he posted a 3.37 ERA (121 ERA+) and 3.37 FIP in an AL-leading 32 starts. Montas bounced back from a forgettable 2020 to set career highs in innings (187), strikeouts (207), and Wins Above Replacement (3.7). Traded three times in as many years, Montas is no stranger to changing organizations. The Red Sox signed him as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 and traded him to the White Sox in 2013. Chicago then moved him to the Dodgers in a three-team deal to acquire Todd Frazier in 2015. Finally, Montas settled in with Oakland after another deal just eight months later. Jharel Cotton, whom the Twins just claimed, was also a part of that deal. After a tumultuous start to his career, Montas finally hit his stride in 2019 with a terrific 2.70 ERA and 2.90 through his first 15 starts. Then, more adversity. MLB suspended Montas for 80 games after he tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He returned for one start in September but was ineligible for the postseason. Montas has a high-spin, upper 90s fastball that he could work up in the zone more. Like Bassitt, he overuses a mediocre-to-poor sinker. His splitter is terrific, with an expected batting average of .134 at a whiff rate over 50%. Montas’ splitter was the fourth-best in baseball in 2021 and produced the highest swing-and-miss rate among starters. Lefties destroyed his sinker, hinting that he needs to up the usage of that nasty split. He’s already excellent against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .295 On-Base Percentage and .660 OPS in 2021. There’s more to unlock here. THE COST Montas is under contract for two more seasons with an estimated salary of $5.2 million in his second year of arbitration. With a raise in 2023, Montas is probably holding a two-year, $13-15M price tag. Unlike Sean Manaea and Bassitt, who are free agents after 2022, Montas’ two remaining arbitration years theoretically double his value. If the Athletics are serious about resetting, it’s fair to assume they’d be looking for close-to-the-majors players in return. According to MLB Trade Simulators, an imperfect tool, the Twins would need to part with a value that equates to a package of Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. If Montas replicates his 2021 season for the next two years, that’s a fair price to pay. The enticing part of this deal is the upside. Montas, like Luis Castillo, is in his prime and harnesses some of the best stuff in the majors. With a few tweaks, the Twins could oversee a complete breakout from the promising right-hander. What do you think? Should the Twins pursue Frankie Montas? Comment below! FOR MORE TWINS CONTENT: — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Twins have an extreme need for starting pitching. Could they swing a deal for Athletics starter Chris Bassitt? THE PLAYER The White Sox drafted Bassitt, 32, in the 16th round of the 2011 Draft out of the University of Akron. In what turned out to be a lopsided trade, the White Sox moved Bassitt and Marcus Semien for Jeff Samardzija in December of 2014. Semien and Bassitt combined for 29.7 Wins Above Replacement and counting, while Samardzija barely eclipsed replacement level in his lone season for Chicago. Billy Beane won again. Bassitt has quietly pitched very well for the last four seasons. Among 74 starters who’ve thrown at least 400 innings over that span, Bassitt is tied for 13th in ERA+ (130) and ranks 14th in OPS against (.656). 49 starters have thrown at least 200 innings over the last two seasons. Just six have a lower ERA than Bassitt: Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler, and Max Fried. Bassitt works with a deep arsenal of offerings and excels at missing barrels. He throws a sinker in the lower-to-mid 90s, an excellent four-seamer with similar velocity, a cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball. The lanky right-hander is an interesting case study. He’s already terrific, but there’s glaring room for improvement in his profile. Bassitt increased his slider usage from 0.1% in 2019 to 10.1% in 2021. My suggestion: bump that up even more. Bassitt’s slider grades as an excellent pitch, with an expected batting average of .127 and a 39% swing-and-miss rate in 2021. Perhaps fewer sinkers (.356 xWOBA) and cutters (.375), and more sliders would help Bassitt miss more bats. This change would significantly help against right-handed batters, who hit just .143 with a .209 wOBA against Bassitt’s slider in 2021. THE COST Bassitt is one year from free agency and will make about $9 million via arbitration in 2022. The Athletics aren’t afraid to trade away their expiring veterans, and there’ve been multiple reports indicating that Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Matt Chapman, and Matt Olson could all be available. According to MLB Trade Simulators, a deal for Bassitt would require quite a bit, but not nearly as much as Luis Castillo. If the Athletics wanted one young player in return, Trevor Larnach holds similar value, according to the simulator. If they seek a package, perhaps Alerick Soularie, Matt Wallner, Blayne Enlow and Drew Strotman could make sense. The Twins certainly value one-year commitments. Because Bassitt is making such a reasonable salary, it’s viable to trade for him and sign a high-priced free agent. The Twins have the depth to swing a deal like this. It’s possible they’d favor Manaea, the younger lefty who may require less in return. Manaea is objectively worse than Bassitt but throws an excellent changeup and costs a projected $10.2 million via arbitration in 2022. Frankie Montas, 28, could be the highest-upside target but also the most expensive with two years remaining on his contract. What do you think? Should the Twins trade for Chris Bassitt? FOR MORE TWINS CONTENT: — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

No American League starter with 200 IP over the last two years has a lower ERA than Athletics’ RHP Chris Bassitt. Multiple reports are saying he could be available in trade. Should the Twins go after him? View full video

Excellent write-up Andrew!!! Thank you for this!!!

Thanks Doc! I agree this could absolutely be a ploy.

As we all know, the Minnesota Twins need pitching, and need some high-end pitching. Free agency is not the only way to acquire players. The Twins may have to investigate trade possibilities, and the Cincinnati Reds are a team looking to make deals and have a true, young ace. Jon Morosi reported Monday that Reds starter Luis Castillo could be on the move this offseason. His availability presents a prime opportunity for the Twins. THE PLAYER Luis Castillo, 28, is precisely the type of pitcher the Twins should be seeking. An established, hard-throwing right-hander who’s under team control through 2023 at modest salaries. Castillo is already an excellent, durable starter. He’s thrown 618 innings since 2018, the 10th most in MLB. His ERA+ of 123 since 2017 (100 is average) ties him with Marcus Stroman for the 11th highest. Castillo is elite at limiting home runs and missing barrels. Castillo’s 10.7 Wins Above Replacement since 2019 trails only Lance Lynn (15), Jacob deGrom (14.9), Gerrit Cole (14.4), Zack Wheeler (14.4), Max Scherzer (13.6), and Lucas Giolito (11). Most excitingly, Castillo’s stuff - a 97 mph fastball, a devastating 88 mph changeup, and a fantastic 86 mph slider - provide dreamable upside. Over his final 20 starts of 2021, Castillo posted a 2.69 ERA. He's a Cy Young candidate in 2022. THE COST Oh boy. A ton. For all of the reasons listed above, plenty of teams will vie for Castillo. He’s projected to make $7.6 million in 2022 and, with a strong season, could get $10 or $11 million in 2023. Call it two years and $18 million. That’s an incredible bargain. The Reds have signaled that they’re ready to slash payroll this offseason. Castillo and fellow starter Sonny Gray would likely be the most sought-after in an overhaul. Castillo’s upside, though, makes him the one to target. MLB Trade Simulators is an imperfect tool but can give us a sniff of player values. Castillo’s is predictably hefty. According to the simulator, the Twins would need to part with Austin Martin, Royce Lewis, and Matt Canterino (or a package of similar value). The Twins have no track record of paying such a price. But with three gaping holes in the rotation and an embarrassing summer to overcome, do they have the right to be conservative this winter? THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins must address at least one rotation hole via the trade market. It’s simply untenable to sign three quality starters via free agency. The Twins don’t have the payroll or the leverage. We’ve heard many excuses of why free-agent starters don’t choose Minnesota. The weather, the income tax, the contract offer, and so on. The Twins can rarely secure a player of Castillo’s ilk and upside. They can finally make a splash and a statement. By trading for Castillo, the Twins would signal that they are serious about 2022 and 2023. The move would alert free agents - Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, and others - that you’re committed to improving and winning. The Twins indeed had opportunities to make impactful moves in recent years. Those chances are gone. What matters now is how aggressive they are in living up to the notion that a “rebuild” is not in the cards. If you’re going to do it, do it. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

The Reds may be looking to sell off some veterans this offseason. Could Luis Castillo be a fit for the Twins? View full video

The Twins find themselves in an identical scenario at shortstop this offseason: they need one. More importantly, they need to thread the needle between filling the spot in 2022 and leaving it open for Royce Lewis in 2023. Here’s a solution. THE SITUATION The Andrelton Simmons signing was brilliant on paper. The Twins added one of the best defensive players of this generation while moving Jorge Polanco to second, where he’d go on to thrive on both sides. Unfortunately, Simmons didn’t carry his weight and produced one of the worst offensive seasons by a Twin in 20 years. The Twins must avoid a similar landmine in filling the shortstop hole in 2022. Additionally, the spot needs to be warm if Royce Lewis is ready to staff it in 2023. It’s undoubtedly a tremendous free-agent class, and the Twins could opt to pursue one of Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, or Trevor Story. They may go back to Simmons or opt for a similarly low-priced commitment to Freddy Galvis or José Iglesias. The latter would allow more allocation to starting pitching, which should be the primary focus this offseason. While it’s tantalizing, committing $20+ million to a star shortstop will eat up a considerable amount of available free agency payroll. The most admirable option is striking the middle. By swinging a trade for Jean Segura, the Twins thread the needle between improving in 2022 and leaving the door open for Lewis in 2023. Oh, and they save some money for pitching too. THE PLAYER Segura was quietly fantastic for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, slashing .290/.348/.436 (111 OPS+) with 27 doubles, three triples, and 14 homers in 131 games. He was worth 3.7 Wins Above Replacement, which would’ve ranked third to Polanco (4.8) and Byron Buxton (4.5) on the Twins. The 31-year-old has averaged 3.86 Wins Above Replacement in five full seasons since a 2016 breakout for the Diamondbacks. Segura hits for a high average, doesn’t strike out (especially for this era), and consistently posts better-than-average OPS marks. Segura’s last entire season at shortstop was in 2019, when he was slightly below average defensively, according to Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-7). He’s played primarily second base since, especially after the Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to play short. Segura’s batted-ball data won’t jump off the page, but he’s consistently in the top 10% of the league for lowest strikeout and whiff rate. He has above-average speed and 10-15 homer power. The Twins have plenty of pop and could use another Luis Arraez-type in their lineup. THE COST The Seattle Mariners signed Segura to a 5-year, $70 million deal after his outstanding 2016, then traded him after two seasons. He’s now entering his final guaranteed year of the agreement and will make $14.85 million in 2022. Segura has a club option for 2023 at $17 million with a $1 million buyout. Segura’s salary places him in-between the blue-bloods of this class (Semien, Correa, etc.) and the bargains (Simmons, Galvis, Iglesias). It’s essentially a one-year, $14.85 million deal with an option for a second. It's is an ideal contract for the Twins, as they aren’t sure Lewis will be ready to start at short in 2023 but also want to leave the possibility open. According to FanGraphs, Segura was worth $19.8 million in 2021. THE TRADE You may be asking why the Phillies would trade their starting second baseman when they’re trying to compete? Well, you could be right. There’s a chance the Phillies aren’t entertaining offers for Segura. But why wouldn’t they? Philadelphia needs as much relief help as it can get. The team has an estimated $171 million already committed to 2022 and sported a 27th-ranked bullpen last year (1.1 fWAR). The Phillies are spending ~$62 million on their infield and could stand to re-allocate those funds to the pitching side. Further, the Phillies currently have MLB’s 4th-weakest farm system, per Pipeline. They could hand off Segura’s contract while also adding young talent. On the Twins side, the price may be two mid-level prospects. Say, RHP Cole Sands and INF Edouard Julien? THE BOTTOM LINE No one wants to see Simmons helplessly wave his bat for the Twins again in 2022. They need improvement in the short term and perspective for the long term. Segura is an opportunity for that. He’s a solid player on a solid contract and allows the Twins to focus most of their spending on the rotation. What are your thoughts on Jean Segura? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

The Twins should be looking to thread the needle at shortstop this offseason. By trading for the Phillies’ Jean Segura, they’d do just that. View full video

The Twins expected to have another great bullpen in 2021. It ended up being a tale of two halves, with much of the group struggling out of the gate before settling in. How did each member grade? TAYLOR ROGERS 2021: 40 1/3 IP, 3.35 ERA (128 ERA+), 2.13 FIP, 35% K, 5% BB Rogers bounced back from a rough 2020 as the Twins’ steadiest bullpen piece throughout the first half. Over his first 35 appearances, Rogers posted a 2.45 ERA and 2.02 FIP while holding opponents to a .600 OPS. The All-Star lefty then gave up five runs over his next 1 2/3 innings, including a grand slam in the Twins’ last game before the break. Rogers’ season ended shortly after due to a sprained finger. The ERA paints a much worse picture for Rogers in 2021, but he was essentially the same weapon he’s been for much of his career. Even then, his looming ~$7 million price tag and finger injury could give the Twins a tricky decision on arbitration day. GRADE: A- TYLER DUFFEY 2021: 62 1/3 IP, 3.18 ERA (134 ERA+), 3.49 FIP, 24% K, 11% BB Duffey entered 2021 as one of the game’s best set-up men with a remarkable 2.31 ERA and 34% strikeout rate in 2019 and 2020 combined. Alarmingly, Duffey’s velocity was down this spring, raising questions about his arm heading into Opening Day. Those concerns were valid. Duffey posted a 5.87 ERA and 20% strikeout rate over his first 15+ innings of the season. His velocity dwindled, and his luster as a lockdown set-up man was on shaky ground. Fortunately, Duffey bounced back with a 2.30 ERA over his last 47 innings, solidifying himself back in the top-25 among American League relievers. Still, his fastball velocity is down over a tick from 2019, and he walked way too many. GRADE: B- JORGE ALCALA 2021: 59 2/3 IP, 3.92 ERA (109 ERA+), 4.06 FIP, 27% K, 6% BB Alcala was terrific in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 2.63 ERA and 29% strikeout rate in 24 innings. A full season breakout felt viable in 2021 for the hard-throwing right-hander. Like Duffey, Alcala got off to a plodding start, evidenced by a 5.73 ERA and .464 opponent’s slugging percentage in his first 40 games. Alcala struck out just 22% of hitters during that span. Alcala’s stuff is too good for such inflated numbers. With improved command in his final 22 innings, Alcala allowed just two runs (0.82 ERA) while striking out 27 and walking only three of the 77 batters he faced. GRADE: B- CALEB THIELBAR 2021: 64 IP, 3.23 ERA (132 ERA+), 3.47 FIP, 29% K, 7.5% BB One of the best stories of the 60-game campaign, Thielbar posted a 2.25 ERA and 2.34 FIP in his first 20 Major League innings since 2015. Thielbar continued a strong 2020 season immediately in 2021. He struck out nine and walked none over his first 4 1/3 scoreless innings. Thielbar subsequently allowed 15 runs over his next 27 innings, contributing to a shaky Twins bullpen. The Northfield native then put together an outstanding second half. He produced a 1.76 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate after the break. Thielbar emerged as the Twins’ best left-handed reliever after Rogers went on the injured list. His spot on next year’s team feels secure. GRADE: A ALEXANDER COLOMÉ 2021: 65 IP, 4.15 ERA (103 ERA+), 4.23 FIP, 20% K, 8% BB The Twins signed Colomé to be the pitcher he’d been over his entire eight-year career. Colomé owned a 2.95 ERA and saved 138 games before signing with Minnesota last offseason. His debut couldn’t have gone any worse. Starting with a blown save on Opening Day, Colomé allowed 16 runs and five homers over his first 26 2/3 innings with the Twins. His Win Probability Added was a staggering -2.29. Colomé eventually found his stride and pitched much better down the stretch, with a 3.29 ERA and 3.38 FIP over his last 38 games. Colomé served as the Twins’ primary closer and saved 15 of 19 games from late June to the end of the season. GRADE: D+ JUAN MINAYA 2021: 40 IP, 2.48 ERA (173 ERA+), 3.97 FIP, 26% K, 12% BB Opponents hit .189 with a .624 OPS against Minaya, whom the Twins signed to a Minor League deal before the season. He upped the usage of his outstanding changeup, which increased the effectiveness of his mid-90s fastball. Minaya had previous Major League success with the White Sox, but this was his best season. His ground-ball rate rose to a tremendous 55%, and he posted a career-high 1.1 Wins Above Replacement. Minaya’s peripherals - a 3.97 FIP in particular - create some uncertainty for sustaining success in 2022. Either way, the Twins have a ~$1 million decision to make, and there’s certainly space for him in the bullpen. GRADE: A HANSEL ROBLES 2021: 44 IP, 4.91 ERA (87 ERA+), 4.83 FIP, 23% K, 13% BB Robles had a disastrous 2020 season for the Angels after a stellar 2019 where he posted a 2.48 ERA and saved 23 games. The Twins signed him for $2 million, betting that the Covid season was an outlier for the hard-throwing veteran. It looked that way early. Robles was fantastic with a 2.83 ERA through June 12th. Opponents hit .172/.305/.283 off him during that span. Unfortunately, iffy command caught up to him and previously escaped jams no longer were. Robles allowed 15 runs over his next 15 1/3 innings and slashed much of the trade value he previously had. The Twins moved him to the Red Sox at the deadline for RHP Alex Scherff, and Robles pitched reasonably well down the stretch with a 3.60 ERA and 30% strikeout rate. GRADE: D REPORT CARDS Starting Rotation Infield Outfield View full article