CharlieDee

The Twins just wrapped up their first homestand! I have the Twins Pass so I have a ticket to every home game this year, and I was so baseball-starved that I decided to go to all 4 of the Twins vs. Mariners games and then game 1 vs the Dodgers (I stayed from 6:40-8 p.m., at which point I went to the Timberwolves game. Luckily too- it started raining right after we left + that's when the game fell apart). I did not go to the Wednesday day game vs the Dodgers because of work, and thankfully so- we all know how that one turned out. Here are my observations from going to this bunch of games:
Opening Day was a joy to get to. I was just so happy to be back regardless of the game result. Thank goodness the Twins pushed the game back a day, so while it was still chilly out, there was at least a lovely warm sun for a bit. I did stay warm- I wore several pairs of pants, brought hand and toe warmers and thick mittens- the whole works. My brother and I's tradition of attending every Home Opener lives on! We were literally 3 feet away from a Gary Sanchez walk-off win- that would have been an unbelievable cap on the day. It was still somewhat surreal to see Carlos Correa in a Twins uniform! The Opening Day jackets were cool. They are very thin, but they look nice and it's a great windbreaker layer to wear over a sweatshirt or something. I thought the Twins' decision to give out 10,000 of them at each of the first 3 games vs just 30,000 at the first game was kind of a cool idea. Of the 3 jacket days I went to, I got 2 jackets!  Duran is the real deal. On Monday, one of the foul balls he through hit the 3rd baseline scoreboard by me with such force that it broke a piece of the scoreboard off. I've never seen anyone throw like he does. I cannot wait to see him pitch again, especially in person with that "101 mph" constantly flashing.  I'm a huge fan of our new Yankees additions in Sanchez and Urshela. They appear to have settled in on the team very well and they seem like great locker room guys. I saw Sanchez's Grand Slam on Sunday and it was unbelievable. I'm not sure I've seen a Twins grand slam in person before despite all the games I've attended. What was cool was that his grand slam was part of a bit of a home run outbreak in the MLB- there were 3 in about 20 minutes across the MLB. One of my favorite accounts on twitter is MLB Home Run, which tweets in real time every home run that happens across the MLB. It was really fun seeing our copious amounts of home runs come through on this account.  Speaking of, my favorite game I've attended so far was Sunday's day game which had Twins 6 home runs! It was a blast to see Correa's first home run as a Twin- a triple deck launch into outer space.  The 7th Inning Stretch is sponsored by Kris Lindahl this season and BOY did people have some thoughts on that. When I tweeted that picture out, I was not expecting the absolute barrage of strong reactions. Check out the replies and quote tweets on my tweet and you'll see what I mean. Kris Lindahl, or someone running his account, liked nearly every one of those replies, I must add. He's always watching.  It's definitely spring training for the scoreboard operators. No hate intended towards them, just lots and lots of errors in terms of the wrong player at bat being shown on the jumbotron, the wrong amount of outs being shown on the board, inconsistent displaying of the stats about each player (as in, one player it will show their height, DOB, debut date etc, and the next player it doesn't) the entire jumbo showing a blue screen of death for a bit, etc. 
The jury is still out in my head on the scoreboard re-design for this season. I do like how with the new design makes the balls, strikes, and outs really huge. The player's batting stats now display in the lineup column on the right side of the jumbotron. They didn't have any facts about the players (ie DOB, height, debut date) for the first couple games, and I was wondering if they just weren't going to do those this year. The fun facts returned for the last 3 games I went to, so it appears it might have been a kink the operators were working out.  New this year is the "pitch sequence" displayed on the right field board. I thought it was really interesting to see what pitches guys were going to, but I was surprised it was showing the type and order of pitches for both Mariners AND Twins pitchers. I noticed they stopped showing the pitch sequence for the Twins pitchers after the first couple games- though I'm sure the opposing teams have ways of seeing what pitches are being thrown, putting it up for display and analysis in real time is totally different. I'm wondering if someone complained. Let's keep it to opposing pitchers. 
The Hammermade sponsorships in the jumbotron pictures are back! Didn't notice our new guys sporting it yet  It appeared to be mostly Dodgers fans at the game I attended on Tuesday and boy, do they still have a lot of vitriol for Correa. The "cheater" chants reverberated through the stadium at each of his at-bats. The taunting seemed to work, as Correa smacked two doubles in a row in his first two at bats. I was wondering if these Dodgers fans came into town for the game or where they came from. I should've asked one of them. Dollar Dog night was back on Tuesday! A damp night at the ballpark did not stop us from getting what my brother deemed "Soggy Dogs." They were actually quite good, and they did not have a limit on the number you could buy (their website says two).  Attendance at these five games was pretty awful- I wrote a front page article about the Twins' efforts to fill these empty seats. The weather was not ideal though, so better weather and good play should help numbers.  There are some really cool walkout songs this season. A few favorites of mine: Sanós new walkup song, "Goat" by G Cinco aka our very own Nick Gordon (who is extremely talented at music in addition to baseball, by the way), Chris Archer's "Voodoo Child", and Tyler Duffey's "Electric Feel." Joe Ryan's Grateful Dead "Fire on the Mountain" quickly grew on me too.  I'm really pulling for Sanó. I will always have a soft spot for the players who grew up in our organization, though I fully acknowledge that 6 hit-less games in a row is approaching egregious level. I'm hoping he figures it out soon. That decision to send Sanó around to home on Monday's game was.. a choice. That was obviously not his fault. That game had some pretty rough baserunning. We will need to get that ironed out- and quickly.  A reminder that if you buy tickets in person at the box office, you can avoid the heaps of ticket fees. My buddies bought a heap of $4 tickets on Tuesday to avoid ticket fees.  I got to the game very early on Sunday because I wanted to make sure I got a jacket in my size, so I had some extra time on my hands. I went into the team stores and they're still selling "October Reign" 2019 Yankees playoffs sweep apparel for semi exorbitant prices. I mean who is going to buy one of these sweatshirts for $40? Come on now, let's slash those prices and clear up some floor space.  That's all for now! I'm looking forward to getting to lots more games this season, but I'm hoping the Twins can go on a tear here so we don't get buried before we even get started. Though Twins games are always fun to get to, they're extra enjoyable when the Twins are competitive. Bummer we have to start off the season playing the likes of the Dodgers and Red Sox. See ya out at the ballpark and Go Twins! One photo from each game recap:

Friday- Opening Day! (above)

Saturday- A beautiful, sunny day for ball!

Sunday- Home runs galore!

Monday- Second win of the season!

Tuesday- Dollar Dog Night!

Think back to October 2019 – the Twins had just gotten pantsed in the playoffs. Again. A really fun season had ended in disappointment. Again. But there was still ample reason for hope. One such reason for optimism was the emergence of Luis Arraez, a rookie contact-hitting savant. Now, one (odd) season later, and we’re in about the same place. The Twins are fresh off another fun season that ended in postseason embarrassment, but this year, we’re much less excited about the 23-year-old second baseman. And for what? All Arraez did in 2020 was fight through injury to hit for a .321 batting average (best on the team) and a .364 on-base percentage (second best) while playing a decent second base. So why are some Twins fans throwing his name into every possible trade deal or into a platoon with whoever ends up as Minnesota’s utility man? Hasn’t Arraez earned himself a spot in the Twins future?
 
2020 Season
Okay, obviously saying that Arraez “fought through injury” to bat .321 is a fairly rose-tinted way of looking at what Luis brought to the Twins last year. To put it a different way, “Arraez was an injury liability and, when he was in the lineup, he regressed in all major stat categories and offered very little in the way of power.” The truth about Arraez is somewhere in between these two takes, but I’ve heard a lot more extreme pessimism than optimism. Yes, he regressed last year and no, he doesn’t help the team when he’s injured, but we’ve found ways to excuse nearly every other Twin for those same exact problems without casting them off as trade bait (I’m looking at you, Garver and Buxton). Also, Arraez’s “regression” brought him down to a .321 average that would’ve been good for third-best in the American League if he had enough at-bats to qualify. As far as I’m concerned, that’s still a pretty good season.
 


Arraez's 2020 campaign was disappointing, but there's reason for hope going forward 
Advanced Stats
I understand that, nowadays, you often have to do more than just hit at a high average to be a solid MLB player, but worry not, because Arraez actually improved slightly in a number of more telling advanced statistics last season. His 2020 campaign saw him improve in average exit velocity, sweet spot percentage and hard hit percentage, per Baseball Savant. None of these improvements was particularly significant and he’s by no means excelling in any of these categories, but it’s clear by looking at the advanced metrics that Arraez is not getting worse at the plate. In fact, it seems that his 2020 season should have been even better than his breakout rookie year.
 
So why did it feel disappointing? Because we were hoping for that second-year leap and we got a regression to the mean instead. Arraez’s improvement in advanced hitting metrics and regression in average and OBP show us that his rookie year was a statistical outlier more than it was a stepping stone to even greater success in the future. Still, if .321 is the mean he regressed towards, Twins fans ought to be excited, especially considering that he was injured and is still only 23. We’ve written off much worse pandemic performances from healthier and more experienced guys, so let’s afford Arraez some of that forgiveness.
 
2021 Projections
Unfortunately, ZiPS (and every other projection service) doesn’t seem to be helping me make my case. They predict a slash line of .313/.371/.406 for his third year in the bigs. On the surface, this looks worse than it is because Arraez’s average is projected to take another hit, but ZiPS actually projects that .313 mark to lead the majors. They have his on-base and slugging numbers improving, too, so, really, they’re not down on Arraez at all. Even if Arraez does level out as a .313 hitter – and I think he’ll be better than that long-term – adding some power and taking more walks would be a massive improvement for his career and for the Twins lineup. And I believe he can make those improvements because, again, he’s only 23.
 


ZiPS projects a .313/.371/.406 slash line for Arraez in 2021 
So, where does that leave us? I saw the regression from his rookie year (we all did) and no, his 2020 year wasn’t what we hoped for, but Arraez is still a great asset for the Twins moving forward. I believe in his contact hitting that has been the best on the team and I believe in the advanced metrics that show his improvements in other areas. Most of all, though, I believe in the player. Arraez has hit .300 at every level of professional baseball, and is the same age or younger than some of the Twins’ top minor-league prospects. He’s already a great hitter and he has a lot of opportunity for growth ahead of him. Luis Arraez may very well win a batting title soon, and the Twins better make sure he does it in a Minnesota jersey.

Late last night we heard rumblings of a deal held up due to a questionable physical between the players exchanged with the Dodgers, Red Sox and Twins. This morning we found this to be true, as Ken Rosenthal confirmed. The deal is currently in limbo, as we wait to find out the next step between the teams exchanging Mookie Betts, David Price, Kenta Maeda and Brusdar Graterol.
 
Rosenthal reports today that the physical in question is that of Brusdar Graterol's. What is truly ridiculous is the wording given behind the hold up. Essentially Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have decided that they see Graterol as a reliever long term. Totally fine. What's the next step the Red Sox take however? Of course, they're asking for more.
 
Graterol was already reported to be Boston's number one prospect if the deal went through. The 21 year old flamethrower hovered around the 3-5 mark in the Twins system. They also received Alex Verdugo, a 23 year old who put up 2.2 wins in only 106 games last season. It may not seem like a lot for Mookie Betts and David Price, but Boston stands to lose Bett's for nothing but a draft pick. As for Price, his injury history is arguably worse than Graterol's, with the difference being that he's 34 and owed almost $100m over the next 3 years, all to be paid by the Dodgers if the deal goes through.
 
The Red Sox have watched teams around them improve all offseason. Meanwhile, it seems that their goal has been to offload Betts. They even brought the Twins in on it to be a third team to make things work. They likely identified a piece they wanted in return, ultimately being Graterol. His injury history was public knowledge up to this point. The Twins even announced that they were using him in the bullpen going forward. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that they get down to dotting the i's and crossing the t's and all of a sudden have an issue with all of this.
 
This leads me to my point for writing this other than to rant about the Sox trying to gouge our Twins farm system. I love Kenta Maeda and was very excited to have him pitching in a Twins jersey. That being said, he's projected to slot in as our number 3. Very valuable, but there's a cap on that value. I also love Graterol and was sad to see him go. I believed it was a fair trade, though I recognized that there was a chance the Twins already regret the trade down the line.
 
The Twins were already projected to win the Central fairly handily before acquiring Maeda. Maeda however, didn't even move the needle that much.
 

 
The Twins were trying to be active in the trade market, but this isn't a bona fide ace that's fallen into their lap. The front office shouldn't be pressured to feel like this is a deal that needs to be done at all costs. Worst case scenario, Graterol is throwing 100 mph gas out of the bullpen to open the season and we continue to pursue trades elsewhere.
 
For the Red Sox to ask for more than Verdugo and what would be their number 1 pitching prospect, a 21 year old flamethrower who's already showcased his ability to get outs at the Major League level, is ridiculous. They're likely sitting in 3rd place in the east in 2020 with little salary space to work with (which they suddenly care about). They're in no position to decide a top prospect's future mid trade and demand more.
 
If the Red Sox want to play hard ball and pretend they hold all the cards, I say let them. Let them try to compete with the Yankees and Rays who make active attempts to get better while the Sox sit dormant for the next 3 offseasons while being weighed down by the remaining $96m owed to the 34 year old David Price. Let them enjoy one last season of Mookie Betts before cashing him in for a draft pick. Don't offer another piece, whether it's cash or a prospect. If Graterol is wearing a Twins jersey to start 2020, that's far from a failure.

It’s Christmas. Santa has already come down the chimney and dropped off presents. Wrapping paper that was once wrapped around a gift with precision lives either in the recycling bin or in shards on the floor. Tears, both of joy and of disappointment, have been shed. Meanwhile, the Twins fan waits patiently, periodically looking up the chimney to see if a gift is just stuck along the walls.
 
It’s something you get used to as a fan of a lower-to-mid-market team. You’re not the rich kid that gets a new car every other holiday season, but you’re also not the family that shops at the food shelf for Christmas Dinner. You’re in the middle, which can be the worst place of all.
 
Part of being a fan in the middle is talking about payroll, about business, about dollars. This has been a reality for me since LaVelle was writing his annual stories in the early 2000s about not being able to keep the resurgent Twins teams together. Instead of just being excited that a possible Josh Donaldson signing would improve our offense for the next four years, we have to consider how much of his potential $20MM+ salary in 2022 may hold us back from resigning some of our homegrown players.
 
A couple of years ago this attitude made me start counting down the days until Joe Mauer’s contract was going to be off the books. Would shedding $23MM from the expenses materially change anything in terms of wins and losses? Probably not, but that $23MM could have been better spent in 2018. I dislike having to think that way but it’s a necessity. Right now, the Minnesota Twins have at least $23MM to spend, and probably closer to $30-35MM. Essentially, they could add a Lexus to their fleet and not miss the money
 
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However, the further away I get from midnight, the less sure I am that Santa Claus is going to come through. I tried to be good all year. I went to the Twins Winter Caravan, I wanted to go to Twinsfest (work duties got in the way), I bought my flex pack and renewed for 2020 even though the prices went up. I did everything a fan is supposed to do. And right now it feels like my financial dedication is being answered with silence. I feel like I’m closer to shopping for an off-brand Martin Perez at the food shelf than walking out my front door to a luxury automobile topped with an oversized red bow.
 
But I’m in the middle class. I’m resourceful enough to know I don’t need to live off handouts. I’m naïve enough to think I can reach the top of the mountain, if even for just one year. And I’m smart enough to know the intelligent allocation of dollars are the best path to get to the peak.
 
So that’s what I aim to do here on my blog. I want to explore the money game, the dollars behind the diamond. I want to figure out the best use of $100K, of $10MM. I plan to do some research, a lot of speculation and hopefully some education.
 
So sit back, enjoy the unseasonable warmth and gather around the fire. Because if the stove’s not hot, at least the fireplace is.

Last night the baseball world watched in awe of the contract that Gerrit Cole was handed by the New York Yankees. He signed the for the largest AAV and total contract value ever given to a pitcher. New York spending money isn’t surprising at all, but there’s a tickle down effect and how it impacts a team like the Twins remains to be seen.
 
It’s a great thing that the Minnesota Twins have significant funds and a real opportunity ahead of them. What is less than great is there’s only so many desirable commodities. When Cole came off the board, teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels immediately pivoted to the likes of Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Just hours before, those arms looked like targets Minnesota may be able to wrangle in. Now, the competition just became more fierce.
 
This exact scenario is one that we can consider during the regular season as well. Although many teams like to wait until closer to the deadline providing an ability to determine their fate, acquiring organizations obviously benefit by earlier action. We can assume somewhat of a premium is paid for early swaps, but the desired result could outweigh that cost when it results in additional wins.
 
During the offseason games aren’t being immediately impacted, but the game of musical chairs gets more intense with each spot pulled from the circle. Zack Wheeler went from reports suggesting he’d accept something south of $100 million to signing for $18 million north of it. That contract upped Madison Bumgarner’s ask, and both Stephen Strasburg and Cole being gone dwindled the list of worthy assets. Does all of that equate to an opportunity being missed?
 
We’ll never directly know what contract negotiations sound like on an individual basis, but early action could seem to hold some weight. Rather than being worried about setting the market to high, a team could be sitting pretty having nabbed their desired talent prior to feeling pressure of commodities being unavailable. A team like the Twins is now faced with the proposition of outbidding either Los Angeles franchise if Ryu or Bumgarner was their man, and that creates a higher level of stress than was initially desired.
 
Although we’re discussing these principles within the realm of baseball, it’s applicable across so many facets of life. As human beings we’re all out for our best interests and looking to snipe a deal. Is the coupon at Target going to save us the most money, or should we save the additional five miles by going to Walmart and buying it first? The fear of missing out can cause us to make rash decisions but being comfortable in our evaluations may afford the opportunity to overlook the result.
 
I’d imagine Derek Falvey and Thad Levine aren’t going to tip their hand as to which pitching assets they had ranked highest. Maybe everyone was lumped together and they truly do not care who winds up in Twins Territory, a true test of their internal development staff. We can draw some conclusions or generate educated guesses once all the chips are on the table, but the waiting and guessing game is all we have for now.
 
In a vacuum it seems the Twins may be best suited to approach a high value target with a strong offer and a deadline. Maybe it doesn’t work that way and maybe they tried, but maybe being the one without a dance partner at the end of the song isn’t so great either.
 
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