Seansy

Great story you found! Well done!

Great idea Seth! Love it! Hopefully someone from the FO is regularly reading Twins Daily so they inquire on his availability.

Rodón and Correa are the two big FA targets I wanted the Twins to target this year. Gausman last year. Missed opportunities.

When older players are on the last year of their deal it is prudent to either trade them or extend them depending on how the team thinks the players are valued and how the team will perform in the coming year. Given that the team thinks they can compete in a weak AL Central I don't think they trade anyone during the offseason besides Max. I think extending Mahle makes sense given his youth but Gray might also be amendable to adding on 2 years to his deal. It's hard to say though given the crazy amount of spending this offseason if players will want to forgo FA next year but he seems like the type of person to favor stability over uncertainty. Beyond those 2 I think Pagan is addition by subtraction and gives other players in the system a chance to contribute and get experience with the big league club. Kenta is a possible trade candidate but only midseason imo, coming off a major injury he won't have much value. If the team sucks they can deal him to a contender if the team is competitive they can hold on to him and see about resigning him. Polanco is probably also a midseason trade candidate to give other guys like Austin Martin and Julien a chance to succeed in AAA before being promoted. Just like Kenta he can be dealt or held onto based on the team's performance. I think the Twins should also add a reliever or 2 in FA on a 1 year or 1 year + option deal to help shore up the BP after dumping Pagan to have available at the trade deadline like Fulmer and Phelps.

Defensive metrics have improved over time but they are definitely less reliable than offense ones. Rosie definitely fell off defensively in 2019 but bounced back after that so I think it really was the injury that hurt him most.

I was going off fWAR which shows a drop from 4.0 (a career high) to 0.9. Eddie had giant drops in both offensive and defensive production that year. You may recall he was playing with a hurt ankle (or some other injury in that area). Teams mostly didn't run on him due to his strong arm but his range was awful (likely due to the injury). His OPS was ~ the same from 2018-2019 but you have to remember that was the juiced ball year where offense was up across baseball. Having the same OPS actually dings him for not improving his numbers like the rest of the league. This explains his wRC+ dropping from 114 to 104. He went from good offense/mediocre defense to average offense (for a corner OF)/abysmal defender. He had a magical postseason and a great end of the season with the Braves but he had a .397 OPS in the first half of the year after they cut him! Nobody claimed him off waivers! He was awful last year too! Their career OPS comparison is .767 for Rosario and .744 for Kepler. The difference in value is in their defense.

Max has always provided at least 2 WAR every year since he became a regular in 2016. Outside of 2019 (3.8) he has never eclipsed 2.5 WAR (2020 could of extrapolated to over 3 WAR but with health who knows how many games he plays *shrug*). 1 WAR = ~8M dollar. His salary is 8.5M this year and 10M next year. The option will get picked up. Max has surplus value relative to his contract. If he is part of a deal for some kind of impact pitcher I am fine trading him but the number of people acting like he's just a salary dump at this point is absurd. I think Larnach should be penciled into 1 corner OF spot but with Wallner's poor defense and very high K% I am concerned about his adjustment to MLB pitching. I think he could use some more time in AAA to work on his defense and his swing. He should be depth at AAA in case of an injury to Max or Larnach rather than starting the year with the team. As Matt correctly notes, Larnach has struggled to stay healthy lately so having a good depth option at AAA makes more sense than plugging in Gordon to start if an injury happens. I would hold onto Max barring some trade proposal.

I think Nick has the right structure in place for what the contract looks like but it is missing 1 key piece to ensure it is enough to win the bidding. Deferrals. If Correa is dead set on beating Lindor's deal you might need to kick in an extra 2M a year in deferred money for X number of years to exceed Lindor's guarantee. Personally, my preference for big contracts would lean towards position players just because of the reduced chance of career altering injuries compared to pitchers. Nothing is guaranteed but as long as we are doing a crazy big deal investing in a great player it might as well be a great up the middle player.

Yes! Please do! ?

Ugh, this accidentally posted before I finished. How do I delete this?

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Carlos Correa ($35.1M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.0M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 9.57% under budget

Agree 100% her with you Ted. With Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, and Ober, plus the depth behind them with Winder, SWR, and Varland, the Twins absolutely should not sign another back-end starter. Front end starter or bust for me right now.

I like Festa as a sleeper pick. It is rare for prospects outside of the first few rounds to succeed at the MLB level (except for overslot prospects that fall due to signability concerns e.g. Julien) but he certainly put himself on the radar this year with his performance. It is worth noting that his BAA and WHIP both went up quite a bit in High A versus Low A and Low A is a pitcher friendly league so I would only list him as an honorable mention but given his stuff he has a non-zero chance at breaking out further. If you could guarantee me that Canterino is healthy for his career I would say he has the best chance of being an ace but sadly the odds are stacked against him for that right now. Prielipp is currently their most likely ace prospect right now and I wouldn't underrate his chances of hitting that ceiling given he showed his stuff recovered pretty well in his predraft workouts. I have said it before and I will repeat it that snagging both Lee and Prielipp in the same draft this year is an absolute coup for the FO and they should be commended for taking advantage of those players being available to them. Even if Prielipp never amounts to anything due to injuries it should remain undisputed that the pick was a good one given his upside at that pick.

It is Rodon or bust for me to acquire that #1 starter for next year. I wouldn't shortchange how good of a year Gray had for the Twins this year either though. Mahle could also be good if healthy too. Ideally, the sign Rodon and can still extend Gray and Mahle to decent contracts for the following years.

Joe Ryan has already made the Cruz deal look amazing but I agree he can unlock another level with some further development of his offspeed pitches. Given how good his FB is with the deception it has I think his floor is probably a low # 3 starter but if he unlocks more he could easily be a very good #2 pitcher.