Cody Pirkl

The issue isn't a lack of planning for offensive regression. They got Donaldson, they couldn't have done a whole lot more on offensive improvements. 1. There's no way to make up for just how terrible the offensive studs from last year have been. Kepler is a below average hitter if you take out the first game of the year. Rosario has a couple games but has been well below average. Polanco might be the least impactful bat in the regular lineup and he's in the 2 spot every night. At some point you have to look at how incredibly sad it is that we have 3 players who are above average on offense and say it's nobody's fault but the players. Slumps happen but things like Kepler dropping the ball last night should make you wonder whether this is just a baseball slump or if guys are just sleepwalking to the park and taking it into the game with them. Be mad at the players for this free fall, not the front office. 2. If you really want to be mad at any organization moves, it should be that they haven't brought up any other bats. Literally the entire league is bringing up prospects looking for a jolt. If the Twins aren't going to do that now then I don't know when they will. They don't want to trade them, they don't want them in the Majors. It makes no sense.

The Twins have the makings of a competitive team on their injured list alone as they’ve been unable to field their projected team for the majority of this shortened season. While injuries ravage all of baseball, Minnesota is clearly one of the teams hit the hardest, and today I’m going to count down who the Twins are missing the most.7 - Zack Littell Littell came on strong in 2019, posting a 2.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 37 innings. Most notably, he gave up just 3 runs across the final 3 months of the season spanning 30.2 innings. 2020 has not been so kind however. Regression was expected, but nowhere near the 9.95 ERA he’s posted to begin the season. His walk and K rates are identical thus far, which never ends in success. It may just be that the elbow injury that sent him to the IL was an issue before it took him off the field. While it would be nice to have Littell back to full strength, the bullpen has been the bright spot of this team and we can afford to give him time to heal. It’s been reported that Littell has thankfully improved and while he may not miss significant time, it’s unclear if he will return when first able in the middle of next week. 6 - Cody Stashak Stashak was off to a nice start to 2020. He’s given up some homers (2.57 per 9), has a low BABIP allowed (.214), and has walked a few more hitters (7.1%) to contribute to his FIP of 4.87 going against his 3.86 ERA, but his K% has jumped to 35.7% and the walk rate is likely to decrease according to his history. Stashak is another valuable albeit luxury bullpen piece that can take his time getting right. He’s already past his 10 day timeline but it sounds like his ailing back is improving. Stashak should be back sooner rather than later. 5 - Homer Bailey Many people were underwhelmed with the Bailey signing. The fact of the matter is that after seeing TBD 2 times per week for pitching matchups all season, Twins fans should be begging for Bailey and his 4.57 ERA in 2019 to return. Any starting pitcher on the IL is greatly missed right now and even if you have reservations about Bailey’s abilities, you have to admit that his injury has negatively affected this Twins team. Biceps tendonitis currently has him placed on the 45 day IL which puts him out until mid September. One more setback likely means we signed Homer Bailey for a single appearance in a Twins uniform if we haven’t reached that point already. 4 - Mitch Garver This one may be controversial. Garver should rank higher looking at his 2019 numbers. The issue however is the beginning of his 2019. Something was clearly very wrong with Mitch Garver before his trip to the IL as displayed by his .154/.262/.212 slash line. The likely scenario is that he’s somewhere in between the historically great player we saw last season and the struggling player we’ve seen in 2020. While I’d expect Garver to rebound to some extent upon his return, his move to the IL didn’t directly hurt the team given the lack of impact he’d made to that point. Avila has been solid and Jeffers has looked just fine as a right handed bat behind the plate. We’re likely to see a lot more of the duo, as Garver’s intercostal strain will likely keep him out plenty past his 10 day designation. 3 - Jake Odorizzi Similar to Bailey, missing a starter right now hurts. It’s much worse for Odorizzi however considering his All Star campaign in 2019 and his assumed role as the #2 on this staff before opening the season on the IL. An 8.10 ERA in 10 innings so far doesn’t impress, but Odorizzi hasn’t really had a chance to ramp up this season. Odorizzi could very well be back from his abdominal contusion by the middle of next week to try to make his case to factor into some sort of playoff role. 2 - Josh Donaldson You could argue Donaldson should be #1. Donaldson himself was another slow slarter slashing .182/.296/.318., his 41.4% whiff rate on fastballs is unlike anything we’ve ever seen from the slugging third baseman in his career. Still, while he changes the lineup by coming anywhere near his 132 wRC+ in 2019, the Twins have an admirable replacement in Marwin Gonzalez on both offense and defense even if he has cooled off from a hot start. We can afford to let Donaldson heal much more than we can afford to rush him back early. That being said, it sounds like he’s hitting dingers in St. Paul which could be a good sign for his timeline. Donaldson should be nearing the end of his IL stay relatively soon. 1 - Byron Buxton Buxton at 1 has everything to do with the replacement options. An already left handed heavy outfield of Kepler and Rosario is now complemented by either Lamonte Wade or Jake Cave. This is an unfortunate reality considering the team has already struggled against left handed pitching. Wade and Cave haven’t even sniffed the offensive ability Buxton flashed at times this season, and the defense is no comparison. Buxton’s surgically repaired arm has improved and should be off the IL when first eligible next week. There’s some ability to interchange some of the players here, but as a whole this just goes to show how much production the Twins are missing out on to the injured list. Disagree with the ordering? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Is that a result of the bullpen game though? If Maeda pitches that day and goes 6 strong, the offense still failed 4 or 5 times with RISP and no outs. We should have scored 7 or 8 runs in that game but instead had to empty the bullpen because the offense once again scored a few runs early and then mailed it in. Back ends of bullpens are nasty everywhere you look this year, but the Twins are getting absolutely smothered by some of the worst relievers on some of the worst teams in baseball. The result is exactly what we've seen which is scoring a few runs early off the starter and then riding the bullpen the rest of the game to a narrow victory. It's not really an issue against good teams like Cleveland as we saw in game one but there's simply no excuse to rely on that strategy against teams like Kansas City.

I have a couple observations about this one. 1. People seem to question going right to Alcala in stead of maybe Duffey for the top of the order in the 6th. Alcala was going to throw high leverage innings in this game one way or another unless the Twins put the game out of reach. If you use Duffey in the 6th, the top probably comes up again and Alcala is still the next best available reliever behind Duffey. On top of that, Alcala has definitely earned an expanded role. This was the worst appearance of his Major League career which is bound to happen at some point. 2. People are upset about the wrong things when it comes to the bullpen games. We have plenty of arms to pull them off, especially against teams like KC. The real problem in this instance is that the offense missed every single opportunity to put the game away in Kansas City on Sunday. We had to use our best relievers to steal a win from one of the worst teams on the schedule right before heading into Cleveland. We smothered them with our horses in game one since we could use them back to back, but the difference tonight was that they could use their best arms and ours weren't available. It comes down to the offense taking care of business against the bad teams. Guys like Poppen are prime for those bullpen games but when it's a 1 run game because the offense got shut out by KC's bad middle relievers, those low leverage guys aren't going to be able to match up with the teams you want to see them against. Again, Alcala is fine for that spot, but if things went the way they should have in KC, he wouldn't have had to be the first guy out of the pen.

2015 was a long time ago in any context, but such a gap in between Major League pitching appearances is nearly unheard of. Caleb Thielbar has had a long road back to wearing a Twins uniform, but the pitcher lovingly labeled “Meat Raffle” has earned the opportunity and could be around for a little while.We all explored Thielbar’s history when he was signed on a minor league deal this winter by the Minnesota Twins. It was a fun story but one with an unsure ending. Afterall, how often do we see the Twins take a flier on a familiar name only to never hear from them again? A quick look into Thielbar’s recent history should have raised an eyebrow. In the last two years, Thielbar split time between Detroit and Atlanta and put up serviceable ratios. In 2019 particularly, he managed a K rate the likes of which hadn’t been seen from him to that point. Despite putting up a 10.85 K/9 in over 76 innings and a 3.30 ERA, Detroit somehow didn’t see Thielbar fit to crack their historically bad roster at any point during the season. They instead dealt him to Atlanta down the stretch for possible bullpen depth where he remained at AAA and continued pitching well. Thielbar was essentially ready to call it quits that winter, signing on as a coach at Augustana University before the Twins coaxed him back with a contract offer and a bullpen that lacked left handed pitching. While he didn’t make the roster out of summer camp, expanded rosters and a taxi squad suggested an opportunity was coming. So here we are. Thielbar has 6 appearances in his return to Minnesota and appears to be doing fantastic. The Twins have used him in relatively high leverage spots, including a 10th inning game with a runner on second and early in Rich Hill’s shortened start before the game got out of hand. In 6.2 innings it’s hard to take anything too seriously, even if his 2.70 ERA is backed up by a 3.01 xERA and 2.72 FIP. There’s more to it however. In Thielbar’s last season in 2015, Statcast had just debuted to afford us the ability to deep dive into a player's raw talent. While he didn’t get much opportunity in 2015, we can still see that Thielbar drastically improved his spin rate across the board since then. Throwing a fastball, slider and curveball in 2020, he’s upped the spin rate of each pitch by about 400 RPMs. While this affects movement, it’s also the likely source behind some of the swings that make Thielbar’s 90 mph fastball look 98. Speaking of the fastball, Thielbar appears to have made it his number one weapon, throwing it 56% of the time and limiting hitters to a .178 expected BA and .314 expected SLG. The 3.4 inches on average of horizontal movement he gets on the pitch is near the tops of the league. This is all the more impressive considering the pitch only averages 89.8 mph. Thielbar’s future is undecided with the Minnesota Twins. While he’s not the type of young high octane arm we so often get excited about, he appears to have a like minded view of analytics with the front office and pitching coach Wes Johnson, and has certainly benefited from it. We’ve seen the Twins start to lean more heavily on Thielbar as the bullpen workhorses have become stretched thin, and he’s only succeeded thus far. A few more strong outings likely cement his spot on the roster for the long haul. Regardless of what the future may hold, the Twins have yet another player on their hands with a tremendous story as well as success to back it up. Years ago it was unbelievable that a local legend from Randolph High School of about 150 students was making his debut for the Twins. It’s all the more unbelievable that in 2020, he’s added to the legend by earning a spot once again. Welcome back to Twins Territory, Meat Raffle. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

If the Twins wanted a righty, I think we've already seen a prime candidate in Trevor Rosenthal from the Royals assuming he continues to not blow up with walks (he nearly did the other day). I think he'd be cheaper and is a high leverage flamethrower that the Twins are missing aside from May. I think they'd be better off looking for a lefty though, and I'd love to see them inquire about Gregory Soto out of Detroit's bullpen. Absolutely awful last year which may suppress some of the value he has in the 5 years of control he has left. He's been absolutely lights out this year and is looking like a bigtime breakout so far this year.

Marwin González had a career year in 2017 which we later found out may have been aided by… other variables. He’s struggled to replicate that performance ever since, and has become known for being a slow starter. 2020 however offers some encouraging signs in the early going.Marwin suffered from a knee issue that flew under the radar in 2019. Regardless he provided passable offense and his versatility was priceless down the stretch. In the offseason he had a minor procedure done to clean up his ailing knee, and the early results have been positive. Marwin has posted a slash line of .297/.381/.459. Much more impressive than his slash line of .147/.216/.176 through 11 games in 2019. His wRC+ of 142 is his best by far (albeit in a short stretch) since his career year in 2017. He’s been one of the quiet contributors to the offense in the early stages of this season while much of the lineup has struggled. So what’s behind Marwin’s offensive resurgence? Marwin has always swung at pitches outside of the zone at a fairly decent rate. He did so over 35% of the time in 2019. Mitch Garver did so about 20% of the time for reference. So far in 2020, Marwin has reduced his chase rate to around 25%. The game plan here is obvious, Marwin is setting himself up for success by swinging at less pitches that are difficult to hit. Running parallel to this, Marwin has walked around 13% of the time to begin the season, which is a much higher rate than he’s ever managed before. “Bad ball hitting” is a skill that has proven not to stand the test of time. As Marwin enters his age 31 season, it’s very possible that he decided to make a concerted effort to be more selective at the plate. It’ll be an interesting trend to watch and see if it’s just a small sample oddity or if he continues being more selective as the season carries on. The key to selectiveness at the plate being successful however is mashing the hittable pitches you do get. We saw Mitch Garver make the most of being selective in 2019. He would take almost every pitch out of the zone and force the pitcher to come in with a cookie that he could put a good swing on. The strange thing about Marwin’s season so far is that he hasn’t punished many pitches in the zone yet. His exit velocity is almost identical to that of his 2017 season, and his launch angle is even a few degrees greater. Despite this, he has only “barreled” one ball, which explains why his slugging isn’t overly impressive yet. All of this bodes well for Marwin. His start to the season has been encouraging and a necessary cog in a lineup that hasn’t hit its stride yet. Plate discipline is often the foundation to strong offensive output. If Marwin continues to display this new found skill, it should only be a matter of time until he starts barreling more balls and putting them into the gaps and seats. This is likely Marwin’s final year in Minnesota and he’s going to play a near full time role between 3B, 1B and the outfield. You truly will not find a better “fill in” player for multitude of reasons. If you missed the proof of this in 2019, it’s at the forefront to begin 2020, as Marwin picks up the slack of not only the missing Josh Donaldson, but of the majority of the lineup that has yet to show any semblance of their 2020 selves. Appreciate Marwin everybody, he’s playing a huge role for your hometown Twins and this is likely the last year to do so. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

A solid first week of Minnesota baseball has kept the hype train rolling in Twins Territory. Naturally of course, we’ve found ourselves with several great quotes about the team that are worth examining. Let’s take a look at a few that are indicative of the first week.“I actually think they’re going to have a good team. I just think we’re a better team.” - Jake Cave on the White Sox Were you worried headed into Chicago? You shouldn’t have been. Not because the Sox are the team they’ve been for the last 7 years, but because the Twins are still better. While the Twins did let the Sox take one game, they proved that this pitching staff is on an entirely different level than the one on the South Side. In the early going, it sure appears that the critics may have been correct in pointing out the flaws in the White Sox rotation. While they’ve proven themselves a formidable lineup, the Twins 1-9 is still superior and the arms don’t even begin to compare. Despite an offseason that may have told you otherwise, continue to expect the Twins to be favored in these matchups. “We’re going to get a chance to face him again and make some adjustments.” - Josh Donaldson on Shane Bieber The Twins got utterly dominated by Shane Bieber on Thursday night and were reminded that for all of the depth and quality we have in the rotation, nothing compares to having a bona fide ace like Bieber. What’s even more difficult is that he’s backed up by Clevinger and Carrasco. The Twins lineup is by and large heavily scuffling right now and showed how one pitcher can take control of a game. The Twins will in fact get another chance against Bieber, and adjusting will be necessary. One thing was made abundantly clear in this one however: Cleveland is a formidable roadblock in the Twins path to another Central title. “The elbow feels like it’s 18 again.” - Rich Hill Rich Hill made his Twins debut on Wednesday and it was glorious. While he lacked his common swing and miss stuff (2Ks in 5 innings), he allowed very weak contact and his effectiveness was never in question. To hear him speak so highly of his surgically repaired elbow is certainly a fantastic sign for Minnesota, who signed Hill as a lottery ticket with a possible top of the rotation payout. It’s great to see optimism from Hill in regards to the biggest question mark that pops up in his lengthy injury history. Hill’s health is all the more encouraging as Jake Odorizzi remains on the IL to open the season. “You’re going to hear people chirping a little bit more now that the stands are empty. I think the best way to quell that is performance.” - Rick Renteria What a weird experience it is to watch baseball in 2020. No fans, almost dead silence. It’s likely what we can expect to see for the entire season. As a result, we’ve discovered that the Twins have some loud individuals in the dugout. It was difficult to watch Rick Renteria’s postgame interview and not come to the conclusion that the Twins chirping and jeering got under the Sox skin just a bit. It’s yet another consideration in the baseball landscape of 2020, as teams can hear each other’s reactions and smack talk likely for the first time in baseball history (except maybe at Tropicana). The Twins dugout energy and personalities could come to play a not insignificant role in momentum this season. Post game one liners often flash across your news feed and you often don’t even consider the storylines they open up. After only a week, these few quotes are just scratching the surface of some interesting interviews that you can dive into. Were there any impactful quotes that you came across over the last week? Did you find breaking these quotes down to be a useful exercise? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Not particularly. I think the kind of anticipation the layoff created is pretty specific to this situation.

I wouldn't worry a ton about the staff. Berrios was amped up and made some mistakes to some good hitters. Otherwise Littell just didn't have it and Smeltzer wasn't good. Almost everybody else has looked great. Even Dobnak was pretty damn good considering he started game 2 of the season on short notice. I think we'll be just fine!

Jake Odorizzi is slated to miss at least one turn to begin 2020. One of the Twins most effective pitchers in 2019, back troubles are not new to the righty’s career. The hope is that we’ll see Odorizzi take the mound in the second trip through the rotation. While that could be the case, it’s possible the repercussions go beyond a single missed start.Back injuries are tricky when it comes to pitchers. The motion of pitching relies so heavily on bending and twisting of the back, and any kind of pain can easily disrupt these necessary movements. Further complicating things, the physical grind required of a Major League pitcher leaves them little opportunity to rest a back injury during the season and they typically end up pitching through it for better or worse. Odorizzi’s 2017 was a perfect example. Odorizzi admitted to suffering an injury in the weight room in 2017 and struggled with back pain through most of the season. He allowed a career high 1.88 HR/9 and his career worst 5.43 FIP was suppressed by a .227 batting average on balls in play. At season’s end, he worked on stabilizing and strengthening his back and successfully staved off the pain he had suffered through. Odorizzi’s first year as a Twin in 2018 was pain free but not overly impressive while essentially filling a spot in the rotation with a 4.49 ERA. He impressed in flashes but was inconsistent. It was this offseason that he made his change. Odorizzi decided to go all in on improving his mechanics and arsenal by attending the Florida Baseball Ranch. If you’re interested in the work Odorizzi did, it’s outlined on their website. Long story short, two years after a back injury that had seemingly healed, Odorizzi’s mechanics were still disjointed as a result. He made some changes and strengthened his back to avoid relapse and the result was a career year in 2019. So now we find ourselves in 2020 where Odorizzi is again suffering from back pain to open the season. Upon his return, the Twins will certainly hope for some semblance of the Jake Odorizzi of 2019. Can we count on that though? 2020 has a sense of urgency to it with a 60 game regular season. It’ll be harder to wait until Jake’s back is completely healed to get him back on the mound and we won’t truly know until we see how effective he is. There was a strong correlation to Odorizzi’s effectiveness and his average fastball velocity increase (a career high of 93 MPH in 2019). A step back in this fastball velocity may be an indicator to look for as to what we can expect from Odorizzi moving forward when he returns. Another issue to consider is recurrence of the injury. Odorizzi has already struggled with his back multiple times in his career as we’ve seen, as back injuries commonly pop up repeatedly. He could come back feeling great only to reinjure it two weeks down the line. At 30 years old, the likelihood continues to increase. Take a look at Clayton Kershaw. Two years older than Odorizzi, Kershaw suffered a back injury in 2014 and has continued to struggle with it ever since, also missing opening day in 2020. It’s worth noting that the previous two years, Kershaw’s ages 30 and 31 seasons, his fastball velocity had dropped precipitously. Kershaw has one of the deepest arsenals in baseball to compensate. What happens if Odorizzi see’s a similar trend though? In summation, I’m pretty concerned about Odorizzi’s 2020, and you should be too. While better than an IL trip for a torn UCL or something of that nature, a back injury shouldn’t be discounted for a pitcher with a history of this injury. Odorizzi in particular makes a living with his fastball which would be the first skill to suffer if the back is compromised. So what do you think? Is this a minor issue? Are you concerned for the long(ish) haul of the season for Odorizzi? How has this affected your thoughts on an extension? Let us know below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Last week the Twins' roster plans began to reveal themselves at least a little bit. Wes Johnson pointed out he’d like to see 15-16 pitchers on the active roster as well as 2 “length options” available outside of the rotation. Today we’ll take a look at the pitchers competing for the last few spots.By all accounts, the starting rotation has impressed upon their arrival to summer camp. It appears each starter will be carrying a nearly full workload on day one because of the shape they’ve kept themselves in. Even still, two length options makes sense. Afterall, a disrupted routine this spring could make injury more of a possibility, not to mention the pandemic still relevant across the U.S. “Length option” however greatly decreases the pool to consider for candidates. There are five likely competitors to take a look at. Jhoulys Chacín - Chacín was brought in on a minor league deal as a reclamation piece to compete for the 5th rotation spot. Coming off a season with an ERA over 6, he hasn’t really dazzled for the Twins thus far either as he was likely falling behind in the running for the rotation before spring training was shut down. He still sports a solid slider that gets a decent amount of whiffs, however he hasn’t shown much else over the last year. His durability paired with being two years removed from 190+ innings of a 3.50 ERA could still be enough for the Twins to try and work out whatever went wrong. As the fantasy baseball industry loves to say: “Chacín will pitch well when Jhoulys expect it”. Randy Dobnak - We all know Dobnak who likely missed out on the 5th rotation spot with the return of Hill. Coming off a fantastic 1.59 ERA in his rookie year, he appears to be a steady and capable pitcher. He likely cracks the rotation with several MLB teams, just not the depth rich Twins in 2020. That being said, Dobnak is a Major League calibre pitcher and should be at the top of the list for one of the final spots. Devin Smeltzer - With a ceiling limited by his fastball velocity, Smeltzer’s funkiness and pitching smarts still make him a solid option. Coming off a rookie season with a 3.86 ERA, some still argue his skill set would be best utilized in the bullpen eventually, and now he’s reportedly developed an impressive slider. That paired with him being a left hander (something the Twins really do need) who can provide length may just make Smeltzer a near sure thing to make the opening day roster. Lewis Thorpe - The Twins are quite fond of Thorpe and for good reason. He led AAA in K/9 in 2019 and has a strong starter’s repertoire. While unlucky at the MLB level (6.18 ERA 3.47 FIP), he flashed his talent in 2020. He was demoted to minor league camp in early spring however after taking a personal leave. I think the Twins see Thorpe as a starting pitcher and may want to keep him stretched out to step into a rotation spot if injury hits, but things certainly could change. Sean Poppen - Poppen is likely at the bottom of the list of candidates. We only saw him in a mopup role in 2019, but he was a starter for AAA all year which makes him part of the “length” pitchers Johnson is looking for. It would take a huge performance for Poppen to snag this role, but I believe the Twins think highly of him. He struggled with a 7+ ERA in 2019 while getting a bit unlucky (4.41 FIP), but there’s definitely talent in that arm. Who takes the final few spots is likely to work out fine regardless, as the Twins can certainly identify talent and there seems to be no terrible options here. The likely choices are Dobnak and Smeltzer, after the former nearly won a rotation spot and the latter is a lefty the Twins could match up or use as length. While this is my assumption, it’s no sure bet with the options the Twins have to choose from. Who do you think fills that role as the “length options” on opening day? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

The Twins won with a roster of players ranging from solid to fantastic in 2019 and will return in 2020 with much of the same. While being a powerhouse in 2019, the Twins could ascend into full blown juggernaut status on the backs of a few players reaching their ceilings. Three such players stand out as the most obvious to take this step.Rich Hill Plenty has been discussed when it comes to Rich Hill and how good he can be when he’s on the mound. Since 2015, Hill has amassed a 2.91 ERA and an 11.2 K/9 and ranks in the top 10 in several major categories in that same span of time for all of the MLB. The obvious issue is Hill’s health, as he’s put together these numbers in a bit over 500 innings and is returning from elbow surgery. Not only is Hill’s health always in question, but his effectiveness upon his return is far from a sure thing. The fact remains however that on a pure performance basis, Hill is capable of more than anything any other Twins starter has achieved. If firing on all cylinders, he could be in the conversation for the Twins #1 starter, and we’ve currently got him pencilled in as the #5. At just a $3m base deal (with incentives), Hill is a potentially season altering ceiling play. Max Kepler Kepler has had comparisons drawn between him and Christian Yelich in the past at TwinsDaily. Both lefty corner OFs, both increased how hard they impacted the ball and had breakouts in their age 26 seasons. Yelich may be a more well rounded hitter at this time, but Kepler is a few short strides from becoming a superstar himself. Kepler can get too aggressive and swing at pitches out of the zone resulting in poor contact at times. His career batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .253 also reflects that his pull happy ways may limit his batting average. The adjustments he’s made in his career however suggest he could develop his approach and pull-happiness as he matures more which isn’t uncommon in good hitters. He’s already one of the best all around players on the Twins, at times carrying the team in 2019. Another adjustment or two could transform him into a downright elite player for a team that would become even more formidable as a result. Byron Buxton The most obvious option when you think of ceiling on the Twins, Buxton’s career has had its fair share of ups and downs. He has always been in contention for one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball, but just as his offense appeared to be on the ascent in 2019 it was cut short by labrum surgery. He was on pace for over 5 fWAR, surpassing the next most valuable Twins player with ease. We’ve seen how game changing Buxton can be when he’s on. He’s a transcendent talent with physical tools that simply dominate the opposition when challenged. Injury and mechanics stand in the way of being mentioned with Christian Yelich and Mike Trout. Make no mistake, this is no over exaggeration. On a team full of young stars with bright futures, nobody’s has the possibility to shine as bright as Buxton’s regardless of the roadblocks his career has had to this point. The scary thing about the Twins is that for all of their 2019 success and bright future, they still lack that true top of the MLB talent. In 2019, 18 players amassed 6+ fWAR which is where you find your Verlanders, Betts, Rendons etc. (Ignore Lance Lynn please). Make no mistake, players like Cruz, Donaldson, etc. are proven studs at what they do. Having a player in the true top tier of all of the MLB however would simply elevate the Minnesota Twins to heights beyond our wildest imagination, and the best part is they have several candidates to make that leap. Do you agree that the Twins already have a player that can take this next step? Is it somebody not on this list? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

I definitely understand the sentiment of being biased towards the Twins, fans of every team certainly do feel that way. I do however objectively feel like the Twins are far and away better positioned especially in the bullpen. We already had the breakouts, and in most cases like May and Duffey the metrics backed them up as studs. It could play out where one of or both teams have those breakouts and the Twins falter, but the odds aren't in their favor given the ability our relief arms have already shown.

The Twins were undoubtedly favorites for a 162 game marathon. As we’re now looking at a sprint, their odds to win the division have fallen as you’ll see across all of baseball when it comes to heavily favored teams. Make no mistake though, the Twins roster is still superior on paper in nearly every way.No case needs to be made for Minnesota’s offense, as we all know what they’re capable of. There is simply too much firepower there for anything that goes wrong this season to be a direct result of the lineup. Instead I believe there will be two “X Factors” to consider league wide. Competent Starters: In a season where each loss is close to losing an entire series, losing streaks can be devastating. Cleveland has an impressive cast of stars at the head of their rotation with Clevinger, Bieber and Carrasco. However, they’re followed by Adam Plutko and maybe Jefry Rodriguez? Being so top heavy is dangerous when considering injury or poor performance. There’s simply no obvious answer to come in and save the day in Cleveland if needed, and their back end of the rotation is questionable at best. Lucas Giolito broke out in 2019 and looks to improve for the White Sox. After him however you’ve got Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez. I would firmly put anybody on this list 2-5 in the 4-5 spot in the Twins rotation. For replacements they have Kopech and Rodon returning from injury and are far from sure things to hold up in a rotation this soon after serious surgeries. Again we see plenty of questions with no obvious answers. The Twins boast a solid 1-5 in Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Hill and Bailey. In addition, Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer are ready to roll whenever needed as well as Pineda returning mid season. It’s easy to say depth is mitigated in a 60 game season but in the case of starting pitching, an injury happening in 2020 without a viable replacement can sink the ship. In addition, the Twins glut of arms can piggyback to allow our starters to build up properly with guys like Dobnak being available to completely take over a spot if needed. The Twins should have all the tools they could ask for at their disposal to give themselves a chance to win every day on the mound. Super Relievers: 2020 will be a constant fight to not let games get away from you, and that requires a relief corp with talent and experience. Cleveland has a great closer in Brad Hand, but their second best relief arm in 2019 is currently wearing a Twins jersey. They have arms that catch my eye such as James Karinchak but they otherwise boast a bullpen of arms with a lot to prove, especially after their prize for the Kluber trade, Emmanuel Clause failed a drug test and will serve a suspension. Chicago has a decent closer in Alex Colomé and an even better setup man in Aaron Bummer. Jimmy Cordero looked great at times in 2019 as well. A signing of Steve Cishek in the offseason however does little to help the decline of Kelvin Herrera and the general shakiness of the rest of the Sox bullpen. They may look to use Kopech creatively with his high octane fastball, but this group still has a long way to go to be considered a top tier pen. I’m biased, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins bullpen shaking out any better than it did this offseason. The trio of Rogers, Duffey and May that dazzled down the stretch in 2019 returns to lead a formidable group. Re-signing Sergio Romo simply needed to be done. Him being outside of your top three relievers is a good situation, not to mention the leadership and experience he brings. In addition, after stealing the Indians Central title, they decided to steal away a core piece of their bullpen in Tyler Clippard who had an impressive 2019. Add in young budding arms such as Stashak and Littell and the Twins should have a very strong core to finish off games. My hot take is that we’ll even be surprised by how strongly newly signed Matt Wisler performs. 2020 is going to be a season where you don’t want to look back on a game and say “That one got away from us”. With enough arms to ensure we can field a competent rotation indefinitely, the Twins should have the early innings of games covered. With as strong a trio as you could ask for in the pen backed up by more proven arms, late game leads should consistently end in wins. Pair that with a clearly superior offense, and the Twins should be universally superior to their competitors. Bring on the sprint. What do you think? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

I've seen that argument as well. I don't think the prospects not playing is a factor. The second half of the season is essentially going to be a pennant race for a ton of teams normally out of it I'd guess and it may give incentive to make the move that puts them over the top.