Huskertwin

By David Weinshilboum
 
In 2013, the Golden State Warriors basketball team seemed on the verge. A franchise that had been a laughingstock for decades had been to the playoffs two years in a row. Led by coach Mark Jackson and a young injury-prone sharpshooter by the name of Stephen Curry, the steam had suddenly thrust itself into relevancy.
 
Yet, just three days after a playoff loss in 2013, the Warriors fired Jackson (who had a year left on his contract). He was a good coach who had many positive attributes. The team was headed in the right direction. Why fire him?
 
The Warriors hired Steve Kerr who implemented a new offense that maximized Curry’s long-range shooting abilities. The team went on to win Championships in three of the next four seasons. As the tired sports cliché goes, the rest is history.
The Minnesota Twins – until this train-wreck of a year—were a team and organization on the rise. Then rookie manager Rocco Baldelli led the Twins to a 100-win season in 2019 and another division championship in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
 
Today the Twins are mired in a disaster season that simply isn’t going to get better. Their best player is injured and half a dozen others are playing well below expectations (Sano, Maeda, Kepler, Polanco and, sorry to put this in print, Colome). When the Twins 2021 season comes to a close, they will be a failure: no playoffs and well below expectations of 90-plus wins.
 
In October, the Twins will have to ask themselves an important question: is Baldelli the leader who can take this team and franchise to the next level? I would argue that, for some very rational, logical reasons, the answer is no.
 
The Twins Twitterverse wants Rocco’s head now, and a few days ago, during a television broadcast, a fan wandered behind home plate and held a sign calling for a managerial change. There’s a lot of emotion going into the Fire Rocco movement. Baldelli has NEVER been a good in-game manager, oftentimes making fans scratch their heads or, at times, yank tufts of hair from scalp. His choice of defensive substitutions, pinch hitters and pinch runners feels arbitrary at best. The most obvious example was a couple weeks ago in Oakland when, in extra innings, Baldelli pinch ran Travis Blankenhorn for Josh Donaldson. The move compromised defense in a big way. And Baldelli made matters worse when he put second-baseman Luis Arraez at third and Blankenhorn at second – eroding the leather at TWO positions instead of just one. The game ended when Blankenhorn booted one grounder and Arraez air-mailed a routine throw to first.
 
Another reason fans might dislike him is his press conference demeanor: he is dullard diplomat who makes former Vikings Coach/statue Bud Grant look emotional. Worse, he never calls out terrible plays – both physical or mental – and seems to dismiss garbage baseball as “part of the game.”
 
Neither of these negative attributes are fireable offenses, though.
 
Baldelli is a good manager. Players love him. They want to play for him. He is flexible and allows them to select preparation that fits their needs. He maximized player abilities in 2019, getting the most out of Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver and Max Kepler.
 
All good things must come to an end, though. And Baldelli’s millennial approach to players might not be as conducive to good baseball as it once was. This year, many players aren’t properly prepared for games. Too often, players seem to be using their first at-bat to “learn” about a pitcher’s repertoire instead of reviewing the scouting reports. Players appear ok with early-inning strikeouts since they’ve seen the stuff. It’s not a stretch to assume many Twins are taking advantage of Rocco’s laissez faire approach to being game ready.
 
Also, Rocco’s concern for injured players seems incredibly detrimental to the team, particularly given how the roster has been assembled. The Front Office has routinely preferred more pitchers and a short bench. But Red-Cross Rocco sits players if they report a hangnail. Worse, he won’t even consider them for pinch hitting or late-inning defense. There have been over a dozen instances this season when Baldelli has chosen to pinch hit a weaker bat instead of a resting star who is at 90 percent. All for the sake of future health. In a year where rosters are 26 players deep, the Twins have been playing with 22 or 23 players.
 
Is Baldelli having a bad year? Absolutely. When the leader of the team forgets how many mound visits have been made, it’s a bad, bad look. The Twins in many ways have played the way Baldelli has managed this year: haphazardly, unevenly and obliviously. Baldelli certainly has the ability to manage better than he has. But when his contract ends, the Twins must decide whether he is the best fit for the club. Their decision will be huge because this team is on the precipice of irrelevancy.
 
David Weinshilboum lives in California and bemoans this year’s Twins ineptitude from afar. Follow @weinshie on Twitter.

Over the winter Twins fans clamored for starting pitching. After losing to the Yankees in the Postseason again, a constant bugaboo was deemed the source of weakness. Needing an ace, the Twins sought out some arms. Swinging a deal for Kenta Maeda was nice, but it may be Rich Hill that represents the haul.
 
Sure, he’s 40 years old but try telling Nelson Cruz that’s a milestone anyone should care about. The reality is that Hill has both been often hurt and often good. Good probably isn’t even a fair assessment, he’s been downright great. His 3.00 ERA dating back to 2016 is the 6th best mark in Major League Baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he posted an outstanding 2.45 ERA across 13 starts for the Dodgers, and he hasn’t had a year with less than double-digit strikeouts per nine innings since 2012.
 
In a world where velocity is king, Hill laughs at the notion. He flips his fastball up there at an average of 90.6 mph, and that’s not much of a decline considering the peak was 92.9 mph in 2012 with the Red Sox. He’s learned to live with what he has, and there’s very little surprise in how he’ll attack you.
 
Last season Hill utilized just two pitches. His four seem fastball was chosen 52% of the time while his big breaker was utilized at a 45.8% clip. The velo change on that curveball is staggering, dropping 15 mph all the way down to an average of 74.5. It’s not that those two types of pitches are anything special, but it is that when they derive from Hill’s hand, they’re nothing short of majestic.
 
Hill’s fastball spin ranks in the 91st percentile, but it’s the bender that gets the love here. The curveball has an average spin rate of 2919 RPM, or 4th best among pitchers that threw at least 300 of them a season ago. It’s in the 95th percentile across the league, and it’s why Hill’s hard-hit rate is an elite 98 percentile tally.
 
That curveball is a thing of beauty in and of itself. With a combined 12 inches of vertical and horizontal movement above league average, barreling it remains one of the league’s toughest tasks. It’s why a hitter can step in and know they have just two pitches to look for, but still be frozen on a meaty fastball right down the gut.
 
You might argue there’s nothing flashy about what Hill does on the mound, and that’s probably a fair assessment. There is a level of intrigue or a mystique feeling about how he competes, however. The stuff may lull you to sleep but being that dominant by going virtually against the grain is something we don’t see in baseball anymore.
 
Minnesota brought Hill in to bolster a rotation down the stretch. Now he’ll work right from the jump and could end up being the heart of it. When the dust settles, he’ll look to add onto his 53 Postseason innings, and those that add onto the 15 he’s pitched in the World Series could certainly culminate with a ring.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

This is a short Blog - kind of a reaction blog set off by the St Louis Cardinals (my favorite NL team). Did you see the headline - 10 runs in the first inning. The Braves were in never never land! What happened. A really good team beat another really good team and did it with fire!
 
The articles say that the pre-game talk by the Cardinal Manager (who the hell is Schildts?) was angry, it pushed the limits and for a while was available on video. ESPN had this article - "In a video that surfaced online Wednesday night, St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Shildt can be seen giving a fiery, expletive-filled speech to his team in the locker room following a win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 5 of the National League Division Series.
"The [braves] started some s---. We finished the s---," Shildt says in the video, which outfielder Randy Arozarena later acknowledged he streamed live on Instagram. "And that's how we roll. No one f---s with us ever. Now, I don't give a f--- who we play. We're gonna f--- them up. We're gonna take it right to them the whole f---ing way. We're gonna kick their f---ing ass."" https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27809815/locker-room-video-shows-cardinals-manager-expletive-filled-speech
 
In contrast our manager felt fine just like Dave Roberts after his Dodgers bombed again. The bombs are not as fun as Bombas, by the way.
 
It reminds me of the Vikings Superbowl bombs. I was so keyed up for them, but as I watched the players they were not. Just going through business as usual. There unflappable coach was stoic and the players were run over by the emotion, if not the talent, of Kansas City, Oakland, Miami, and Pittsburgh. Emotions count.
 
Next year Rocco, I hope the players love you, I hope that they enjoy playing for the Twins, but when you get to the place where the season hinges on the game - get mad, get emotional, play like it is more than a game.

Over the off-season there will be PLENTY of chatter about the Twins. They're primed to be BOLD and make a YUGE splash in free agency.
 
As a seasoned Twins fan I'm here to save you a bunch of time! The off-season is already predetermined, and your friend Vanimal found the transcript for the most DRAMATIC off-season yet...
 
10/9: Twins exercise Nelson Cruz' option
 
10/14: Jim Pohlad quoted in a Sid Hartman column "there will be no restrictions on payroll"
 
11/1: Ken Rosenthal tweets the Twins are one of several teams interested in free agent pitcher Gerrit Cole.
 
11/10: Jeff Passan tweets the Twins are attempting to schedule a meeting with Zach Wheeler's representation.
 
11/11: Zach Wheeler signs 4/$72 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
 
11/12: Lavelle E Neal writes rushed blog post saying Wheeler's representation never returned the Twins' call.
 
12/1: Twins add 5 minor Leaguers to 40 man roster. Twins Daily writes that every player added has a floor of an average major league player, and a ceiling of a perennial all star.
 
12/4: Jake Odorizzi signs a 5/$75 million contract with the Houston Astros.
 
12/6: Pat Reusse writes column that the Twins gave an honest attempt to sign Odorizzi. Didn't want to commit to 5th guaranteed year.
 
1/13: Twins sign SP Homer Bailey to minor league contract with invite to spring training.
 
1/14: Twins season ticket holders receive automated email informing them prices will increase for the 2020 season.
 
1/27: Jon Heyman tweets the Twins make Gerrit Cole their top priority.
 
2/1: Dave St. Peter announces a new bar will be constructed 30 feet above the pitcher's mound held up by suspension cables! For $15,000 you can be RIGHT ON TOP of the action drinking your favorite local craft brew!
 
2/11: Lavelle E Neal reports Jose Berrios has turned down extension offer from the Twins.
 
2/15: Twins announce NEW FOOD offerings at Target Field.
 
2/26: Gerrit Cole signs 8/$275 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
 
3/4: Twins sign free agent SP Tanner Roark to 1/$12 million contract with a team option for 2nd year.
 
3/13: Lavelle E Neal reports SP Brusdar Graterol is in team's plans to make opening day rotation.
 
3/14: Brusdal Graterol optioned to AAA spring training.
 
3/28: Twins realize they're still short 1 starting pitcher, re-sign Kyle Gibson to minor league contract with "opt-out" on May 1.
 
You're welcome!

With the band-aid now being ripped off and the offseason underway for the Minnesota Twins, no time will be wasted when considering how to reload for the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rocco Baldelli’s club isn’t going to be an underdog going into the new year, and they should have plenty of momentum built towards a second straight AL Central Division title. When considering who may be on the way out, Derek Falvey has more than a handful of decisions to make.
 
There’s a very strong group of players that lay the foundation for the Twins core, but we’ve seen where deficiencies may lie, and opportunities exist. With a handful of guys set to take their talents elsewhere, but choice or designation, it will be on the collective decisions made by Minnesota to best position the roster for success. Not every guy with the ability to return should, and it will be in those difficult discussions that the skeleton of the roster is constructed.
 
Looking at each situation individually, here is what I’d both suggest and think that the Twins will do.
 
Nelson Cruz: $12MM option in 2020
 
This picked up today (October 9) and I’d imagine the front office couldn’t have ever been more excited to spend such a sum.
 

Jake Odorizz: Free Agent
 
After coaching him to a career season and a debut in the All-Star game, it would make plenty of sense for the Twins to retain his services. A qualifying offer somewhere around $18.5MM could be doled out, but that tends to lean more on draft pick compensation should the player decide to leave. Instead I’d think that Minnesota should make him a long-term part of their rotation and offer him something like $45MM over the next three years.
 
Kyle Gibson: Free Agent
 
The former 2009 1st round draft pick will very likely be in another organization for the first time in his career. At 32-years-old it’s the end of an era and will be very different for all parties involved. Dealing with health issues all season didn’t do any favors to Gibson’s performance although he did set a new career best strikeout rate. Unfortunately, a rotation that needs to improve substantially just won’t have room.
 
Jason Castro- Free Agent
 
Wrapping up the three year deal he signed with the Twins, Castro’s free agency hits at the same time Mitch Garver has emerged. Jason Caught a career low 79 games in a split opportunity situation this year, but he posted his highest OPS since 2013. Garver should see something closer to 80% of the starts in 2020, but a veteran backup makes a ton of sense. The Twins could ask Jason what his thoughts are on a part time spot, or they could find someone or a similar ilk on the open market. My hunch is that his time here is done.
 
Jonathan Schoop- Free Agent
 
A one-year deal following a down season gave Schoop the opportunity to bounce back. He did that even while leaving some to be desired. His .777 OPS was nearly .100 points higher than 2018 but Luis Arraez emerged and took over his starting role. At 28 Schoop should still have a decent market at a down position, and even if his bat isn’t what it was in 2017, his arm keeps him significantly above average at the position. Good find for someone, but not going to be back in Minnesota.
 
C.J. Cron- Final Year Arbitration
 
After making just south of $5MM in 2019 Cron is looking at an increase near $6-8MM in 2020. He certainly didn’t finish the year the way he started, but a mangled thumb gave him issues since July. Cron will be only 30 years old and looked the part of a very strong contributor. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to move Miguel Sano to 1B and taking over as a primary DH for Nelson Cruz down the line seems a more logical step anyways. The market isn’t flush with options, and Cron can be had in his final arbitration year as he paves the way for Brent Rooker or Alex Kirilloff to take over. It’s not a guarantee, but I’d expect him back.
 
Martin Perez- $7.5MM Team Option
 
There’s no way the Twins are paying Perez nearly double what he made for them this season. Despite a strong start he was a disaster down the stretch and that led to more rotation questions than they hoped to handle. It would make some sense to bring him back at a lesser figure on a one-year pact that can be supplanted by developing arms on the farm. I don’t think the Twins will (or should) prioritize Perez, but he could be a factor depending on how the rest of the starting rotation is addressed.
 
Sam Dyson- Final Year Arbitration
 
At the deadline Minnesota added the best arm that was moved in the Giants Dyson. Unfortunately, he came with unannounced red flags and provided less than zero value in his time here. Now having undergone shoulder surgery, Minnesota will likely want no part of his 2020 situation. It’s too bad for the Twins, and at worst a bad look for Dyson. The Giants claim they didn’t know about an injury, and Sam suggests he’d been pitching through it for years. Good riddance to this one, and hopefully some compensation can be recouped through the league.
 
Sergio Romo- Free Agent
 
Entering his age 37 season Romo is no longer a spring chicken. Despite his weird knee tendencies, he’s also been a pretty strong beacon of health. Effective once again this season, the Twins should covet his presence in the clubhouse next year. Romo has a great personality and brought a level of excitement to the mound. There’s significant strikeout stuff on the back of a sweeping slider, and fortifying the relief corps a bit further this winter would be ideal.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Well, we're down to nail-biting time. This weekend's series can likely determine both Cleveland's and the Twins' fate for the season. A sweep by either team likely spells the end for the losing team. Pretty obvious for Cleveland if they're on the losing end, but almost as obvious for a reeling Twins team headed in the wrong direction. That's just reality. Even if the Twins manage to sneak in to a WC game, their chances against the A's or Rays, both of whom are headed in the right direction lately, would appear dim indeed.
 
But this article in today's NYT : https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/sports/baseball/shane-bieber-indians-pitchers.html really gets to the difference in the two organizations' prospects. Despite trading Bauer, losing Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar to injuries/illness, Cleveland has been able to maintain one of the best rotations in the league, certainly far stronger at present than the Twins. Bauer has emerged as an ace, far better than Berrios now, Clevinger is close behind, and Plesac and Civale have performed far better than any of our #3,4 or 5 starters(now that Pineda has taken himself out of the equation. Even Plutko has provided stability as a #5 starter. And now even though Hand is down, their newest arrival, James Karinchak, has been looked at as his replacement as soon as next year.
 
And what have the Twins come up with for reinforcements? One can say, a big fat zero, at least compared to the Indians' newcomers. The failed list is distressingly long: Romero, Gonzales, Stewart, et. al. - none of whom can be relied on to pitch even one inning down the stretch. As we enter today's doubleheader, perhaps the best we could hope for are Thorpe and Smeltzer, neither of whom having given much indication of success in big games like today. Part of the problem is that Rocco and company have not given them much opportunity to start, but the far bigger problem is this organizations' utter failure to draft/develop major league starters, especially when compared to Cleveland. And today we hear that Alcala may be called up. Belatedly, the org. switched him to the bullpen after failing miserably as a starter. So now with 7 relief innings under his belt at AAA, he is being brought up in the biggest series of the year. Haven't we seen what happens when someone(read Graterol) is thrust into a critical game without any prior major league experience: a crushing extra inning loss to the Indians at home to start a critical three game series.
 
I'm not going to predict the standings come Monday morning, but must confess to be a doubter as of now. The FO cannot be blamed for the long-standing weakness in Minnesota's pitching development and the loss of Pineda, but they passed on an opportunity at the trade deadline to be agressive in acquiring much needed help. Wouldn't Stroman or Minor have made all the difference? And after three drafts under Falvine, do any pitching prospects look ready to emerge next year to supplement our offensive prowess? Yes, the bullpen looks a bit stronger (no thanks to damaged goods Dyson) but that's because the re-emergence of May and Duffy has counterbalanced Rocco's shockingly poor bullpen (mis)managment.
 
We should all be distraught if this record-setting offensive team fails to make the playoffs. It would be a crushing blow to the fan base and even more so, because all the stars aligned this year for surprising success. Can we expect a repeat next year?