Boswell

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mlb-rule-changes-winners-losers/ According to the author’s compilation of sources, the Guardians are ranked 8th and the Twins 13th in terms of expected wins. Seems about right. We would need some things to break our way, or they would need a few things to fall apart, in order for us to recapture the AL Central. (We were clear winners in 2019 and 2020, but disappointing failures in 2021 and 2022). At the same time, the rules changes may make the task more challenging. The Guardians ranked 1st based on 2022 statistics for MANFRED (Metric for Assessing Negative or Favorable Rule-Effect Dynamics) while the Twins clocked in at 21st. The Guardians already have a team, system and culture that works well with pitch tempo, fewer defensive shifts and team speed… and we have a more difficult path for adaptation and exploitation. So it goes. (Regrets for mixed font size…)

My response to “Correamas” continues to be: No Jucy Lucys for you! On the other hand, Twins Daily readers could reach out to Matt’s Bar and see if $1000 would cover a lifetime supply of those tasty burgers for Mr. Correa in the event of a 2023 contract. I’ll pony up $100 if anyone else would like to match me! Great cross-branding opportunity to get our guy a “Platinum Card” at a real Minnesota institution. Who needs Dior, Saks Fifth Avenue, Bloomingdales and whatnot anyway?

Dakota Jazz Club, downtown Minneapolis. Extended residency canceled after booking agent realizes Carlos has no relation to Chick Corea. Also no talent or experience.

Thanks for bringing my hopes for Maeda closer to reality. I do think he has the mentality and desire to be an every-fifth-day starter. It remains open whether he will be a “Tommy John success story” or not. I am hopeful that the extra rest in September will be promising for 2023. Maeda had 7 seasons in his home country with 26 to 31 starts, and 175 to 216 innings Then 4 seasons with the Dodgers with 20 to 32 starts We have had him for 11 starts in 2020 and 22 starts in 2021 Yes, his most recent line is 6-5, 4.66 ERA and 106.1 IP (for the 22 starts) So, a more reasonable “step up” would be 10-3, 4.00 ERA and 130 IP on 25 starts. In any case, he’s a veteran entering his 14th season as a starter. Would you prefer to look to Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle or Joe Ryan as the starter to “step up”? Or do Falvey and Levine need to trade for Pablo Lopez or another top notch pitcher?

1. Buxton needs to step up and hit 40 HR with 100 RBI plus 100 games in CF. We’ve finally cut bait with Sano, but the Buxton/Sano era is not finished. 2. Maeda needs to step up and start 25 G with 160 IP and an ERA below 3.30. The Twins gave up a sweet reliever in Graterol. Kenta had Cy Young type results in 2020, our last playoff season. 3, Polanco needs to be a leader at the top of the lineup. Keep the line moving, work the pitch counts. 4. Falvey and Levine need to step up and make two or three good trades. We need more pitching and right-handed hitting. Farmer, Vasquez and Gallo “could” be a good start, or just another group of underwhelming additions. 5. Rocco and the coaching staff need to step up or step aside. The new health and conditioning guy from Oakland had better be the real deal. Not sure about the capabilities of Pete Maki. 6. Joe Pohlad (or is it Zachary?) needs to step up and put the payroll above $100 million. Any team that pays out less than the “Cohen Luxury Tax Line” needs to ridiculed and required to sell all tickets and concessions at a steep discount. 7. Only veterans who have been with the Twins for at least three years are eligible to be called to “step up”. They are the ones who have received opportunity and investment from the club and the fanbase - let’s see some dividends!

On the fifth day of Correamas… https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/mlb-rumors-carlos-correa-not-interested-mets-contract-restructure?amp yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and C4 may come back to us on a high AAV, low year, opt out contract. Take him off the market and pray we somehow rocket to top ten in terms of health! Anyone care to calculate what percentage of Twins payroll or expected WAR was lost to injured reserve in 2022? Any sense of comparison to other teams?

I was amused by the note that he was having dinner with the Red Sox front office while he was closing on Rodon’s deal with the Yankees. “Excuse me, I have to attend to a text message…”

Huh. $11 million that could have gone to Bassitt, Walker, Syndergaard or Eovaldi? Sure, add to a position that is already jam packed, forget about the pitching.

Didn’t Trevor May think the Oakland Colosseum fans were top notch supporters for having a cow bell tradition? Not sure if it was particularly for the sake of the bullpen. I remember Trevor’s challenge to the Twins’ attendees. Odd that a 33 year old middle reliever is now the Athletics’ highest paid player!

Cory Provus gave us the quote for the season after Pagan chunked the save to close the Cleveland series in July - “I’m going to puke”. Those were the games that left us nauseous throughout the summer and now leave us with dry heaves. Wes Johnson left shortly thereafter for the green fields of LSU. Whether he knew that the end was near or whether he just didn’t give a crap about his pitching staff and team anymore, I remain suspicious about the circumstances and would like to hear “the rest of the story”. I loved it when Rocco pulled the Dapper Dan card on Karinchak, but I just can’t deal with his low-key (or batshit crazy) demeanor for another season. I do think Correa has unfinished business here and should stay to “build a championship culture” with Buxton, Arraez and Maeda next year under a new manager, group of coaches and set of trainers. Sad to say, it won’t happen. Minnesota fans are stoic, loyal and frugal, happy to show up for the Target Field Experience regardless of the mediocre product on the diamond. We will continue to foot the bill for the plaything of the Pohlads. Excuse me while I empty the contents of my stomach.

For those of us who appreciate the German language, good to have Knoblauch at the top of the batting order once again. I’ll take whatever good fortune is available 31 years later…

“The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians just wrapped up a stretch of eight games against one another with no ground being gained on either side.” Very nice overview of the division, Ted. A few notes for clarity. Due to the Red Sox 3-game sweep of the Guardians, and our 2-1 series against the Rockies, the two teams atop the AL Central stayed even for the eleven game/ten day stretch as a whole. As to the eight games themselves, the Twins slipped 2 games behind Cleveland by turning in a pathetic 3-5 record. Ordinarily, that’s fine - but good teams do not find such miserable ways to lose. Cory Provus provided a memorable call on Thursday with “I’m going to puke”!!!??? Thanks to Joe Ryan, Luis Arraez and Byron Buxton, I can now relax a bit and set aside my plans for T-shirts emblazoned as “#PukeWithProvus Summer Swoon 2022”. Nate Silver’s group has the Twins at 44% to win the downtrodden AL Central, CHW and CLE at 28% each. I’m looking forward to seeing how the White Sox will beat themselves over the seven games we will have with them by July 17. Our lineup will put the ball in play and the hijinx will follow. One of these three teams will be awarded a division trophy and a #3 seed in the AL playoffs. Might as well be us! ?

Six words are enough to write.

Steven Matz is now off the board. We better get to work with signing Pineda and trading for at least two starters. Stick with quality and not quantity, please.

“Prohibitive favorites”? Looks to me like even-odds. White Sox may have a slight edge on paper, but they need to put it together on the field to dethrone the Two Time Defending Champions. They will also have some growing pains with LaRussa’s leadership, while our players know what to expect with Rocco.