Channing1964

The Minnesota Twins decided that Alex Kirilloff was the best option for their Postseason elimination game, but following a lackluster spring, he wasn’t a fit for the Opening Day roster. Let the second guessing commence.
As Rocco Baldelli breaks camp with a 26-man roster top prospect Alex Kirilloff will not be on it. He won’t travel with the big-league club to Milwaukee, and the assumption would be that he’ll remain in St. Paul across town until sometime near May 1. This affords the Twins a business-first opportunity, but also gives them some different options in terms of roster flexibility.
 
It should’ve been assumed that Brent Rooker would crack the Opening Day club. He had a solid showing with Minnesota in 2020 and has more than held his own this spring. Kyle Garlick could force his way into the picture with a strong Spring Training and 40-man roster spot, as could non-roster invitee Keon Broxton. The decision also leaves the door open for another utility type, namely Willians Astudillo should Rocco want the three-catcher flexibility.
 
There’s really no problem with the Twins deciding to keep Kirilloff in the minors, but it’s certainly little more than a business first decision. Sure, he’s been beyond mediocre this spring. A .440 OPS through 31 at bats is nothing pretty, but the flip side is the reality of that sample size. He’s played in 12 games, generating a total of 33 plate appearances. Less then seven months ago he was the answer for Minnesota despite a grand total of zero plate appearances in games that tracked statistics.
 

 
From a service time standpoint in the current CBA landscape, Kirilloff would afford the Twins an extra year of control if they keep him in the minors for a matter of weeks. The problem is that the CBA is set to expire following the 2020 season, and much has been made about the implications of service time and team control as a whole. In short, the entirety of the business-first side of this coin could become moot in less than 12 months.
 
There’s no guarantee that Minnesota is worse off without Kirilloff out of the gate that they are some platoon featuring Rooker, Garlick, or Luis Arraez. However, what happens in April still counts and the division is expected to be hotly contested by the Chicago White Sox. Dream on a scenario in which Minnesota finishes second by just a couple of games, or their Postseason seeding is impacted, and it’s worth wondering if they’d have decided to start on a different foot from the get-go.
 
Alex Kirilloff beginning the 2021 season in the minor leagues during a season in which he’d get actual at bats makes some sense. It makes much less in a year where he’ll see no game action until May, and then seemingly be determined ready by the big-league club. Here’s to hoping that whenever he debuts the mashing will commence, but the timing of questionable decision making here will be worth scrutinizing as the calendar flips forward.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I've thought about writing this blog for some time now. I trust that Donaldson is surrounded by professionals so I've restrained myself from writing on this subject.
I'd like to start with personal testimony. A short time ago, I had a surgery and was bed ridden for some time. As soon as I went back to my walking. As usual I stretched out and started my walk. I started out with just a short walk but my calves and hamstrings cramped up like everything. I knew muscle cramps is a deficiency of magnesium. So I started to take magnesium supplements and the cramps went away immediately. Recently I reduced and eliminated taking supplements and my legs started to tighten up when I stretched out.
I'm sure Donaldson goes through a regiment of stretching, massages, soaking, use heavy duty calf supports and even most likely was tested for magnesium deficiency. But magnesium blood tests can be deceiving. Magnesium is necessary for proper cell development like muscle, nerve, bone etc. most Americans are deficient of it.
I don't recommend Donaldson to nurse his big calves with "milk of magnesium" (sorry I couldn't resist). But I do suggest maybe a magnesium cream, a magnesium sulfate (Epsom salt) soak. Donaldson really works those calves so he might need to take magnesium supplements. Magnesium is normally safe but you can over do it so I recommend to consult his health care giver.
I'd really like to see him overcome this problem and be a super star with the Twins.

You’ve heard of the Devil being in the details, well finding what advantage the Twins have crafted in 2020 may come from a surprising place, their defense. After finishing 23rd overall in team defense last season, Minnesota currently finds themselves 2nd in 2020.
 
We knew many of the problems from a year ago. Jorge Polanco was not a good defensive shortstop, particularly coming in on the ball. Luis Arraez was stretched going to his right, and the outfield suffered every game Byron Buxton had to miss. Bringing in Josh Donaldson was expected to be a boost for the infield, and a healthy Buck would be a great remedy on the grass. Not all of that has played out though, and yet, here we are.
 
Minnesota has gotten just 7 games from Donaldson in his first year with the club. Despite that, their 14 DRS is 3rd in the big leagues and leads the American League. Byron Buxton has already been worth 6 DRS on his own, and while Polanco has been worth -3 DRS, his 0.7 UZR represents the only positive mark of his entire career. Luis Arraez was worth -8 DRS in just shy of 400 innings during 2019. This year, he’s been worth 2 DRS in 157 frames.
 
This isn’t just an individual player thing though, and it’s clear Minnesota is taking an analytical approach to cutting down base hits. With 322 shifts, or 42.4% this year, Rocco Baldelli’s club ranks 10th in the majors. Last season they shifted just 35.5% of the time. Against righties the Twins are shifting 33% of the time, or virtually the same frequency they did a year ago. Against lefties though, they’ve gone from 36.4% in 2019 to 53.2% in 2020.
 

 
Thinking about configuration, left-handed shifts also bring some interesting possibilities to consider. Miguel Sano is holding down first base for the first time in his career. He’s been caught a couple of time straying to far from the bag. In a shift however, he’s solely responsible for the line. Luis Arraez, who was challenged going up the middle last season, plays a roving right field with Polanco up the middle to his right. Whether it’s Donaldson or Ehire Adrianza at the hot corner, there’s a plus defender standing near the shortstop hole against a lefty.
 
In the outfield, Minnesota again has made tweaks with Byron Buxton. In a recent article for The Athletic Aaron Gleeman talked about how the centerfielder is starting deeper than he ever has. With the ability to come in on virtually anything, this gives him the opportunity to find the wall and remain more in control when playing balls near it. Eddie Rosario looks the part of a healthier left-fielder, and Max Kepler asserted himself as a stalwart while pulling double time last year.
 
Thus far we haven’t seen the Twins offense click on all cylinders, and there hasn’t been a certainty to the entirety of the rotation either. While the bullpen has flashed very well at points, there have been cracks on that front also. If there’s a tried and true narrative for 2020 it’s that this team shows up with the glove. Errors are a dated way to measure success, but from the most basic number the club has committed just two through their first 22 games.
 
Pitching and hitting can go in slumps, but defense is completely mental beyond the overall athleticism needed to compete. Give it to the Twins for being completely locked in there on a nightly basis.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over the winter Twins fans clamored for starting pitching. After losing to the Yankees in the Postseason again, a constant bugaboo was deemed the source of weakness. Needing an ace, the Twins sought out some arms. Swinging a deal for Kenta Maeda was nice, but it may be Rich Hill that represents the haul.
 
Sure, he’s 40 years old but try telling Nelson Cruz that’s a milestone anyone should care about. The reality is that Hill has both been often hurt and often good. Good probably isn’t even a fair assessment, he’s been downright great. His 3.00 ERA dating back to 2016 is the 6th best mark in Major League Baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he posted an outstanding 2.45 ERA across 13 starts for the Dodgers, and he hasn’t had a year with less than double-digit strikeouts per nine innings since 2012.
 
In a world where velocity is king, Hill laughs at the notion. He flips his fastball up there at an average of 90.6 mph, and that’s not much of a decline considering the peak was 92.9 mph in 2012 with the Red Sox. He’s learned to live with what he has, and there’s very little surprise in how he’ll attack you.
 
Last season Hill utilized just two pitches. His four seem fastball was chosen 52% of the time while his big breaker was utilized at a 45.8% clip. The velo change on that curveball is staggering, dropping 15 mph all the way down to an average of 74.5. It’s not that those two types of pitches are anything special, but it is that when they derive from Hill’s hand, they’re nothing short of majestic.
 
Hill’s fastball spin ranks in the 91st percentile, but it’s the bender that gets the love here. The curveball has an average spin rate of 2919 RPM, or 4th best among pitchers that threw at least 300 of them a season ago. It’s in the 95th percentile across the league, and it’s why Hill’s hard-hit rate is an elite 98 percentile tally.
 
That curveball is a thing of beauty in and of itself. With a combined 12 inches of vertical and horizontal movement above league average, barreling it remains one of the league’s toughest tasks. It’s why a hitter can step in and know they have just two pitches to look for, but still be frozen on a meaty fastball right down the gut.
 
You might argue there’s nothing flashy about what Hill does on the mound, and that’s probably a fair assessment. There is a level of intrigue or a mystique feeling about how he competes, however. The stuff may lull you to sleep but being that dominant by going virtually against the grain is something we don’t see in baseball anymore.
 
Minnesota brought Hill in to bolster a rotation down the stretch. Now he’ll work right from the jump and could end up being the heart of it. When the dust settles, he’ll look to add onto his 53 Postseason innings, and those that add onto the 15 he’s pitched in the World Series could certainly culminate with a ring.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I am always curious about trades – do they work in the short run, long run or not at all? How do we judge the Twins trades? I am not interested in the end of the career moves of Killebrew and Thome, but rather the movement of players who will have a career that goes on for a few years after the trade. Most likely the balance between good and bad will even out after a number of years, although David Ortiz will always be a thorn in the Minnesota Twins field. But then Ortiz was not traded - we cut him (and you still think Kelly was a good manager?) and so we got nothing for him. Lucky Boston. So I will ignore that stupid move and look at real trades.
 
And the Twins can always counter with - Liriano, Nathan and Bonser for Pierzynski. Joe Nathan is our greatest closer and he was with us for seven years accumulating 260 saves and 18.4 WAR. Liriano was also with us for seven years and was 50 – 52 with 4.33 ERA. For one year he was the best, but then injuries took him from HOF to great potential. He had 9 War for the seven years. Boof gave us our best name and played for us for three years. 18 – 25 with 5.12 era and -0.1 WAR. The three of them gave us 27.3 WAR. Pierzynski was with us 6 years and played 13 more after leaving us. He had 9.5 WAR with us and 14.3 after he left. I know we consider this a big Twins victory and it is, but maybe not as large as we like to claim.
 
In 1989 we acquired Tapani and Aguilera for Viola. Tapani played seven terrific years for the Twins and was terrific. 75 – 63 with 4.06 ERA and 19.1 WAR. Aguilera was with us 11 years 40 – 47 and 254 saves with 3.50 ERA and 15.5 WAR – that is 34.6 total WAR. Frank Viola was a stud for us for 8 years, but his career was not long after leaving. A total of 15 years with 64 – 57 record in his years with the Mets, Red Sox, Reds, and Blue Jays. His WAR was 11.4 with us, 11.8 with the Red Sox and Mets and -1.1 his last two years. We won that trade for sure.
 
Milton and Guzman and Buchanan for Knoblauch in 1998. Knoblauch was with us seven great years and is second to Carew in our 2B rankings. He accumulated 38 WAR in those year and then in 4 years with the Yankees he had 7.5 WAR until the yips ended his career. With the Yankees he also posted great post season numbers. Brian Buchanan was with us three years and had 0.3 WAR. Christian Guzman was with us 6 years and was one of the fastest and most exciting players we have had. He had 7.6 WAR before being traded. Eric Milton was with us six years and posted a record of 57 – 51 with 4.76 ERA. His WAR for us was -0.6. Put it all together and it is a wash, but NY was happy to have Knoblauch on their championship teams.
 
1976 Smalley, Singer, Gideon, and Cubbage for Blyleven Of course Bert would come back to the Twins and Smalley would go away and come back too. In all Smalley would play 10 years for us – seven after this trade and three more to end his career. He had 18.7 WAR in his seven years after this trade and 2.1 for his last stint with the team. Bill Singer was 9 – 9 in his one year with the team and had 0.4 WAR. Gideon did nothing for us or anyone else – he had one year in Texas. Mike Cubbage had five years with the Twins and 6.6 WAR. Blyleven had 11 years with the Twins out of 22 and seven came before the trade and 4 more in his last stint with us. He had 49.1 WAR with the Twins – 10.5 in his return so 38.6 before the trade. He had 47.1 WAR with other teams which would mean that we lost that trade!
 
In 1979 thanks to Calvin Griffiths big mouth we had to trade Rod Carew for OF Ken Landreaux, C/OF Dave Engle, RHP Paul Hartzell, LHP Brad Havens. Rod had 63.8 WAR with the Twins when we traded him and 17.4 with the Angels afterward. Ken Landreaux was with the Twins for two years and had 1.8 WAR. Dave Engle played five years for us and had 3.9 WAR. Paul Hartzell was with us one year for 0.4 WAR. Brad Havens was with us three years for 0.3 WAR. We lost that one.
 
In 1963 we pulled off one of our best trades – Jack Kralick for Jim Perry. Kralick pitched five years for Cleveland and had a 6.6. WAR. Jim Perry pitched for us for 10 years and won 128 games. He had a 26.3 WAR. That was a steal!
 
In 2008 we got OF Carlos Gómez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber, RHP Kevin Mulvey for Johann Santana. Yes we lost this one. In the four years before his injuries ended a HOF career he had 15.3 WAR with the Mets. Gomez in his two years was exciting and posted 2.6 WAR. Guerra did not pitch for us. Philip Humber had no wins or losses in two years and a WAR of -0.1. Kevin Mulvey had -0.2 in his one year. Yes we lost that one. And if you are thinking – we traded Gomez for J J Hardy so we won, think again, we kept him one year and traded for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
 
If you are keeping track, we are 3 – 3 – 1 in the trades so far.
 
1969 we got RHP Luis Tiant, RHP Stan Williams for 3B Graig Nettles, RHP Dean Chance, RHP Bob Miller, CF Ted Uhlaender! Tiant had a 2.84 ERA in six seasons with Cleveland before the trade, and Williams was thought of as an ace reliever. Tiant, only threw 92 2/3 innings with the Twins because of a shoulder issue and was released after the season. Williams had a 1.99 ERA in 68 relief appearances in 1970 but was traded to the Cardinals the next year. Tiant then caught on with the Red Sox as one of their star starters and Nettles went on to play 19 years. Tiant had 1.2 WAR with the Twins out of 66.1 for his career and was 7 -3 before his injury and went on to win 229 games. We lost because we could not wait for his injury to heal. Stan Williams was 14 – 6 with 19 saves. He was a terrific relief pitcher but we only kept him 2 years and he had 2.3 WAR for us.Craig Nettles would play 22 years. He had 1.1 WAR in three years with the Twins, but as an excellent glove man and power hitter he would amass 68 WAR in his career. Chance was terrific for us with 13 WAR in three years but had a total of zero war his last three years. Ted Uhlander played only three more years for 1.1 WAR. Bob Miller pitched 17 years – nine after we traded him. He gained 5.7 WAR in that time, but served as a valuable relief pitcher. With Nettles alone we lost this one. And with our impatience for Tiant we doubly lost.
 
2007 OF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris, OF Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Barlett, and Eddie Morlan. Young was such a disappointment it would have been a good trade if we had given up only Eddie Morlan (who?). Delmon was here 4 years and teased us with his potential each year. His WAR for those years totaled – 1. He played 10 years total. Jason Barlett totaled 10.4 WAR for Tampa. Do I need to go on? Well we did get Brendan Harris and for three years he played for us and accumulated -0.6 WAR. For his career he ended with -0.3. Jason Pridie was with us 2 years and had -0.2 WAR. And then there was Matt Garza who won 93 games in 12 years and had 13.5 WAR after leaving us. WE DEFINITLY LOST THIS ONE.
 
In 2010 there was the trade of Wilson Ramos to the Washington Nationals for Matt Capps and we also through in Joe Testa. I believe this was an unpopular trade! So far Ramos has 15.4 WAR. Matt was with us three years – I forgot that – and somehow got 1.9 WAR. So we lost that one too.
 
THAT BRINGS THE RECORD TO 3 – 6 – 1
 
Now we come to the Centerfielder trades.
Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy – do I have to go into the details? We lost.
Denard Span for Alex Meyer – okay, let’s move on – we lost that one too.
Ben Revere for Vance Worley (not good) and Trevor May – great! We won. It just took a while.
 
Recently Eduardo Escobar was traded for Jhoan Duran and outfielders Gabriel Maciel and Ernie De La Trinidad. Escobar has been a stud for AZ and the minor leaguers are not here yet. Duran looks like he could be special and is listed as our number 5 prospect by MLB.com. Maciel is listed at number 27 and Tinidad is not on the list. Too early to judge, but AZ is happy!
 
What about relief pitchers.
Ryan Pressly traded for Acala (25) and Celestino (15). Both great prospects, but I think we would have liked to have Pressly in the pen. He was a star for Houston. Still too early for a final judgment.
Nick Anderson for Brian Schales – Tampa Bay would do this trade any day. Anderson had 1.4 WAR last year and 3.32 era for Tampa as a rookie.
Liam Hendriks was not really a trade but we DFA’d him so we could sign Phil Hughes. I suspect we would like him back too since he is now one of the best of all RPs. So I treat that as a default loss.
 
 
The tally as I have it is 4 – 10 – 3. Maybe the desire to make trades is something we might want to think about.

The Twins went into this offseason looking for impact pitching. They'd had a phenomenal offensive season, hitting 307 home runs, but their pitching wasn't so awesome. They were also entering the offseason with a rotation that consisted of Jose Berrios. They quickly extended a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi, and he accepted. Then, they resigned Michael Pineda to a 2 year contract. Fans said that the rotation looked "too much like last year" but I didn't think about that. I would think about how they really needed two more pitchers. You can't have a rotation that consists of three people, and especially not 2 people for the first 39 games of the season. (Of course, we did know that they would use Randy Dobnak, or Devin Smeltzer, or Lewis Thorpe in this spot.) So finally, on Tuesday, they signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. (ha ha, a pitcher named Homer?) When I was reading Twitter comments on their posts about signing them, a lot of them said things like this is a great signing-from Indians fans and I thought you wanted to keep up with the White Sox. One of the worst things about this signing is that Hill is injured until JUNE! So, in addition to Dobnak, Smeltzer, or Thorpe being used in Pineda's spot, they're going to need one of them to fill Hill's spot. (Now is the part where you should be saying "Oh, God, this was a really bad signing") I will give you the even worse part of it: Hill will be 40 the next time he comes to pitch. Nelson Cruz will also be 40 next season, but he's a designated hitter, not a pitcher! (Now you say "Why the heck did they do this?") And, both their contracts are for only 1 year, so when the Twins enter next offseason, they'll practically be back at square one with Odorizzi also set to enter free agency. Could they have made a worse signing?
 
Also here's a secret: Homer Bailey looks terrifying and old and like he needs to smile more.

Just throwing this out there: Is the Twins' front office actually maybe kinda sorta mad that the team is playing so well?
 
Obviously, this seems preposterous on its surface, but bear with me for a moment.
 
Falvine nailed it with almost every FA acquisition made this offseason, with most of the signings being short-term guys at spots the Twins have heralded prospects coming up behind them. Schoop= Lewis/Arraez/Gordon etc, Cron/Cruz=Rooker/Kirilloff, Perez=Graterol/Gonsalves, and so on.
 
If these guys were performing as well as they have been this season, they would all be valuable trade chips at the deadline to help strengthen an already-strong minor league system. However, their play has contributed to 50 wins well before the All Star break, putting the Twins in an interesting position.
 
Should the team continue racking up wins, there is a good chance most of these guys will be allowed to walk after the season is up, and the Twins will get nothing in return. Can you really see them giving Schoop or Cron a long-term contract when they could call someone up from the minors at a much cheaper price?
 
I wonder if the front office isn't actually a little unnerved that the team is playing so well, much like 2017 when they probably wanted to get rid of Molitor but they improbably earned a Wild Card spot.

The Twins could make a move like this happen and I believe they should. How could this work and what are the chances they could get a guy like Will Smith in the deal as well?

Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
 
I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
 
My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
 
I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
 
But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
 
-He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
 
-He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
 
-His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
 
-It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
 
-His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
 
-His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
 
-He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
 
-He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
 
-He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
 
In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
 
If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.

With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program.
 
Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster?
 
Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year.
 
2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319.
 
Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break.
 
Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm.
 
To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside.
 
Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.

I will be the first to admit, I was absolutely stunned by the Twins poor start in 2018 and am equally as stunned by their dynamite start to 2019. All of you on Twins Daily are aware of this, but just to reiterate for the sake of context:
-The Twins came off of a 103-loss 2016 season to nab the second Wild-Card spot in 2017 with a record of 85-77.
-The Twins had an emerging group of youngsters such as Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, José Berríos, and Eddie Rosario that seemed poised to improve after strong finishes to 2017 (with the exception of Sanó, who as an All-Star but missed the last two months due to injury)
-The Twins also were anchored by veterans such as Brian Dozier, Kyle Gibson, Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, and Jason Castro, who were all instrumental to the Twins' run at the end of 2017.
-The Twins then added veterans Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, and Zach Duke to shore up a weak bullpen that waved goodbye to Brandon Kintzler at the 2017 Trade Deadline, when the Twins were below .500 and looked to be out of the race. They also traded for Jake Odorizzi, who the brass liked and believed had untapped potential (he was a former top prospect, after all) and signed starter Lance Lynn, who had a very good track record in St. Louis.
The result? A 7-4 start, followed by a 3-13 stretch that included an 8-game losing streak, en route to a disappointing 78-84 finish to the season. It also was the gut-wrenching goodbye to fan-favorites Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, in addition to Duke, Rodney, Lynn, and, to my surprise, Ryan Pressly.
I, along with many other Twins fans, held on to hope for dear life until the Twins were swept in a three-game series in Kansas City after the All-Star Break. At that point, I knew and finally, reluctantly, accepted that it was over. A once-promising season thrown down the drain. However, looking back, is that final 78-84 mark actually surprising? And is it actually bad? Let's stop and consider.
It all started before the season started, when Ervin Santana, the ace of the Twins in 2017, delayed his surgery until February and would not be able to start the season on-time. As it turned out, he didn't throw a pitch until August. Then, the news broke that Jorge Polanco would miss 80 games with a suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol, a banned substance. The Twins were surely upset, but not panicked, as Lynn was signed and Escobar became the regular shortstop and hit very well.
In April, the Twins had three consecutive games postponed due to weather, which ended up giving the Twins 4 days off before going to Puerto Rico, where they played in a 16-inning game that resulted in a win vs the Indians. Then the 8-game losing streak began.
The barrage of setbacks then continued when it was announced that Jason Castro was going to miss the rest of the season. Jason Castro was not a huge weapon offensively at this point, but his value defensively was immense. The Twins turned to veteran Bobby Wilson, who almost gave up baseball before the season, to receive a bulk of the playing time alongside Mitch Garver, who was still very unpolished.
Byron Buxton then proceeded to make 2 trips to the Disabled List and ended up only playing in 28 games all season. That opened the door for Ryan LaMarre and, eventually, Jake Cave. Cave showed an ability to hit the ball, but he and Robbie Grossman in the outfield on a regular basis is clearly not ideal and a substantial downgrade from having Buxton in center, even if he put up mediocre numbers at the plate.
Then June rolled around and the Twins were treading water, fighting for their lives to stay alive. The Twins were forced into making the nuclear decision to send a struggling, and by some reports disinterested Miguel Sanó not to Triple-A, but to Single-A for a complete reboot. His struggles opened the door for Ehire Adrianza to play shortstop every day until Polanco returned. Similar to Cave, Adrianza is a decent player, but he is not a healthy, productive Sanó. The more bench players that have to play regularly, the harder it is to win games.
To compound that, Addison Reed, who was solid for the Twins early, started to break down from overuse and spent a lot of time on the Disabled List. To this day, he has not regained his already-declining velocity and was just recently Designated for Assignment.
The Twins embarked on a late-June, early-July, 9-game road trip to Chicago (3 with each team) and Milwaukee. The Twins went 1-8 on that trip and were, in my mind and the mind of most, dead in the water. Then they went 9-2 on a homestead against the Orioles, Royals, and Rays right before the All-Star Break and were hanging on by just enough of a thread to keep me optimistic. Then the aforementioned Royals series happened and I knew what little hope was left was gone.
The last week of July saw the departure of Brian Dozier, most notably. Another reason for the Twins struggles was that Dozier was never able to get it going after having a hot first week in Baltimore and Pittsburgh with 4 home runs. It was all downhill from there, though a dramatic walk-off grand slam in the last game before the break provided one last thing to cheer about before his send-off to LA.
To summarize, here is what happened to the Twins in 2018:
-Injured starting catcher, who was replaced by a veteran backup.
-Injured starting center fielder
-Suspended starting shortstop
-Injured ace
-Injured relief-ace
-Declining starting second baseman
-Disinterested former-All-Star third baseman who had to be demoted and rebooted
All things considered, it is no surprise that the Twins underperformed in 2018. All told, perhaps 78 wins is not so bad after all. 2019 is off to a great start; this was the expectation last year, but we're getting it a year late! In my opinion, this team is better than the Opening Day 2018 team.

The Minnesota Twins were able to respond well after a series loss to the Blue Jays with a 3-game sweep against the Orioles, but were only able to grab one game against one of the league's top teams, the Houston Astros.
 
Going into this series, all I wanted from the Twins was to win one out of the three games this series, and I knew it wasn't going to be the third game when I saw the pitching matchups: TBD vs Justin Verlander. That meant they needed to take one of the first two, and they did exactly that.
 
Jake Odorizzi was able to pick up his second win of the season, and second straight, in a 9-5 win on Monday. Odorizzi dealt 5.2 innings, giving up only two runs on eight hits and no walks. He moved to 2-2 with a 4.37 ERA in five appearances on the season.
 
Unfortunately, the bullpen wasn't too clean in their relief. Ryne Harper came in for the seventh inning, but gave up a 3-run bomb to Carlos Correa. Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker were both able to come in and throw shutout innings to close the game off.
 
Polanco was able to have himself a night going 4-5 with four RBIs, including one home run. The Twins racked up 12 hits plus two runs late to help seal the win and take the first game of the series, which was also the first game the Astros have lost at home this year.
 
The next two games of the series got out of hand, lacked offensive, and included struggles from both the starting pitchers and the bullpen. They allowed 17 runs total while only scoring five.
 
The Twins got up 3-0 early in the first game thanks to another Eddie Rosario 3-run home run in the top of the first, but could only manage to score one more run the entire game. Michael Pineda was the starter for this game and went 5.1 innings but gave up four runs on eight hits and two walks. He, luckily, didn't pick up a loss because the Twins were able to tie the game seventh.
 
The tie didn't last long as the bullpen wasn't able to keep the game close. Again in the seventh, the Twins bullpen gave up runs, this time only being two but coming from Trevor Hildenberger and thanks to a couple errors, four runs were scored in the eighth against Tyler Duffey. The twins ultimately lost game two 10-4.
 
We saw two of our relievers surrender their first runs of the year. Harper gave up three runs in game one and Hildenberger give up two runs in game two. The bullpen was again pretty unreliable in these first two games, but probably wasn't the only reason for the loss in game two.
 
The series finale was tonight and Verlander continued to hurt the Twins, pitching eight innings, striking out eight and only giving up four hits and one run. The one run was a home run off the hot hand of Polanco, but was the sole run for the Twins tonight.
 
Before the game, the Twins made some roster moves to get a starter for tonight and another reliever. The two guys brought up, Kohl Stewart and Fernando Romero were the only two pitchers the Twins had to send out tonight. Stewart dealt six innings, but gave up five runs on eight hits and three walks, and Romero finished the game with two innings and two runs. With this transaction, they sent down Tyler Duffey and Jake Cave.
 
I am actually content with how the Twins played this series finale. They've had to play 12 games in just as many days and were playing against the Astros ace. The Twins were able to give some guys the night off in the field and in the bullpen. Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, and Jonathan Schoop were all given the night off as well as the whole bullpen, besides Romero who we just called up.
 
Like I said at the beginning, going into the series, I wanted one win out of this series and I got that. However, I would've liked to see a better performance from the pitchers. The Twins face the Orioles again, but this time at home in what hopefully is another bounce back series both for the offense and pitchers.
 
After this series the Twins moved to 13-9 but still have a half game lead on the Cleveland Indians for the lead in the A.L. Central.
 
The Twins busy schedule isn't even close to over after they get one off day tomorrow, they play 13 straight days with seven being home and six being on the road.

I have always been upset that even when we have a good team nobody else in the country ever gives us props...maybe that's changing.... from mlb.com..3. Twins (8-6)
 
You can look at the Twins a certain way and make an easy case that they’re now the AL Central favorite. And it’s not just because the Indians appear to be more vulnerable than they’ve been at any time in this string of three straight division titles.
 
The Twins are off to a good start despite an offense that is in the bottom half in almost every category except one: OPS. Minnesota is ninth with an .814 OPS, which could be an indication that there’s more there after adding Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop and Willians Astudillo to an everyday lineup that already had Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler.
 
Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda have been excellent at the front of the rotation, and once Jake Odorizzi gets on track, he will add quality depth. Addison Reed ’s return from the injured list should make the bullpen as good as any in the division.
 
Also interesting is how the AL Central will play out. The Tigers and White Sox could both get better as their youngsters settle in, and the Tribe will start to get its core guys back at some point.
 
But if Twins center fielder Byron Buxton -- who has an .868 OPS with three steals and seven doubles -- finally is the player he has been long projected to be, Minnesota will be in excellent shape.
I have been saying we SHOULD be taken seriously for awhile now. What do You think?

I have always been upset that even when we have a good team nobody else in the country ever gives us props...maybe that's changing.... from mlb.com..3. Twins (8-6)
 
You can look at the Twins a certain way and make an easy case that they’re now the AL Central favorite. And it’s not just because the Indians appear to be more vulnerable than they’ve been at any time in this string of three straight division titles.
 
The Twins are off to a good start despite an offense that is in the bottom half in almost every category except one: OPS. Minnesota is ninth with an .814 OPS, which could be an indication that there’s more there after adding Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop and Willians Astudillo to an everyday lineup that already had Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler.
 
Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda have been excellent at the front of the rotation, and once Jake Odorizzi gets on track, he will add quality depth. Addison Reed ’s return from the injured list should make the bullpen as good as any in the division.
 
Also interesting is how the AL Central will play out. The Tigers and White Sox could both get better as their youngsters settle in, and the Tribe will start to get its core guys back at some point.
 
But if Twins center fielder Byron Buxton -- who has an .868 OPS with three steals and seven doubles -- finally is the player he has been long projected to be, Minnesota will be in excellent shape.
I have been saying we SHOULD be taken seriously for awhile now. What do You think?

I have always been upset that even when we have a good team nobody else in the country ever gives us props...maybe that's changing.... from mlb.com..3. Twins (8-6)
 
You can look at the Twins a certain way and make an easy case that they’re now the AL Central favorite. And it’s not just because the Indians appear to be more vulnerable than they’ve been at any time in this string of three straight division titles.
 
The Twins are off to a good start despite an offense that is in the bottom half in almost every category except one: OPS. Minnesota is ninth with an .814 OPS, which could be an indication that there’s more there after adding Nelson Cruz, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Schoop and Willians Astudillo to an everyday lineup that already had Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler.
 
Jose Berrios and Michael Pineda have been excellent at the front of the rotation, and once Jake Odorizzi gets on track, he will add quality depth. Addison Reed ’s return from the injured list should make the bullpen as good as any in the division.
 
Also interesting is how the AL Central will play out. The Tigers and White Sox could both get better as their youngsters settle in, and the Tribe will start to get its core guys back at some point.
 
But if Twins center fielder Byron Buxton -- who has an .868 OPS with three steals and seven doubles -- finally is the player he has been long projected to be, Minnesota will be in excellent shape.
I have been saying we SHOULD be taken seriously for awhile now. What do You think?

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Sound the alarm! The Twins pitchers currently lead the league in team strikeout percentage! I know, I know, we’re talking about three games in March. This sample size hopes one day it will grow up to become a “small sample size.”
 
That said, Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi each struck out 10+ batters in the Twins first two games, something that only Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling have ever done before. As an encore, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez teamed up for 11 strikeouts in 7.2 IP in game three. There’s a legitimate chance that this is the best starting rotation to ever reside on Target Field’s mound.
 
It would not surprise the reader to know that the Twins have been really bad at getting strikeouts. For five straight seasons, from 2011 through 2015, they finished dead last in team K% in all of baseball. In the 35 years since the Pohlad family took over as the Twins’ owners, their 15.9 K% is the second to worst in the MLB, just 0.1% better than the last-place Tigers. So ya, leading the league in strikeout percentage is very unusual, even if it is only three games into the year.
 
But the question is: are the Twins pitchers really this good or are the Indians hitters really bad?
 
Should we commence construction of Wes Johnson's statue? Or should we point and laugh
at the Cleveland’s crappy lineup? 
A point in the favor of Twins pitchers is that their stuff has been better.
 
Odorizzi’s velocity is up nearly a mile per hour over where it was a year ago, and his swinging strike rate was up 140% over his career mark. Berrios had a similar increase in his swinging strike rate (156% increase over his career mark). Pineda also got more whiffs and was insanely efficient in blanking Cleveland through his four innings. Perez maintained his spring velocity bump with a fastball that maxed out at 97 mph while producing a swinging strike rate at nearly double his career mark.
 
Here’s the problem though: if the Indians hitters really do suck, then these improvements in swinging strike rates are exactly what we’d expect to see. Bad hitting teams make opposing pitchers look good. It’s the pitching equivalent of a Snapchat filter that removes your blemishes and makes your eyes look like Alita (you know, the freaking Battle Angel).
 
With proven major-league hitters Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis on the injured list, the Indians gave 18% of their team’s plate appearances to a putrid combination of Eric Stamets, Max Moroff, and Brad Miller. Hanley Ramirez was batting fifth despite not having played a major-league game since last May. Their leadoff hitter Leonys Martin has never produced an above-average DRC+ in his career. These guys are … not great. It’s Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, and the cast of The Expendables up there hacking.
 
To see if having a bad lineup explains the Twins’ pitching dominance, I looked at the PECOTA projections for each Cleveland hitter and weighted them based on the number of plate appearances they actually had in this series. This gave me with a PECOTA-projected K% for the Indians when Jose Ramirez gets 12 plate appearances and Jake Bauers gets 9 and Jordan Luplow gets 4 … you get the picture. I did the same with Twins pitchers, weighting them by batters face for each pitcher and adding them all together.
 
INDIANS HITTERS PROJECTED K%
21.7%
 
TWINS PITCHERS PROJECTED K%
21.2%
 
ACTUAL K% FOR BOTH
38.6%
 
Had the Indian’s projected strikeout percentage been worse, I would’ve been tempted to chalk this up to terrible Indians hitting. Similarly, had the Twins projected strikeout percentage been higher, I'd talk myself into thinking the Twins pitchers are great. As it is, we’ve probably got a little from Column A and a little from Column B, but even that is uncertain in our tiny sample.
 
We can’t glean anything conclusive from three games, we knew that coming in, but these are interesting data points that trend in an exciting direction. As we collect more and more data points over the coming weeks and months, the picture will continue loading until it eventually becomes clear. In the meantime, we can stare these particular data points and admire their beauty. Twins pitchers are striking people out and it’s amazing.

Wow - no Abbott and Costello needed for this joke - just Falvey and Levine. The Twins are playing right now against the Rangers - okay, just 60 games left, open roster, we could bring up Vargas, Wade, Petit, Wiel and have a nice surprise players at first base. Or we could stay with Mauer or Austin, or give Sano or Grossman the 1B glove for a day.
 
But not this advanced metrics group of geniuses - nope we outsmarted everyone. We swung a secret trade of Wilson for Gimenez to boost our future and not behind the plate - nope, we needed to get Gimenez bat in the line up and Astudillo was set for catcher, so Gimenez at 1B.
 
Wow, I wonder how Chris stacks up among all 1B in the majors this year? How about last? Only the Twins were smart enough to redefine what a 1B player should look like and ignore the eight who might be considered for the position to come up with New Baseball. Forget Moneyball; we are into Washed Up Ball. Of course he is in position to take the mound after Belisle does his mound magic.
 
Update - I was so upset I could not wait for Texas to score 18 runs, but now it is over and Belisle gave up a run without a hit, out, error, but one big HBP and then thrown out. This allowed him to secure his 8.01 ERA and then as I had anticipated our pitcher in waiting Gimenez came it - let's hear the collective Hooray! And one inning, six hits, and five runs later the game was over.
Falvey, Levine - congratulations on maneuvering our roster so we could accomplish this great feat!