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Hey guys. I’m writing you all from vacation in beautiful Rapid City, S.D. We’re on our way to see Mount Rushmore in the morning, but before that, here’s the mailbag column I promised you all almost a week ago. The homestand got kind of busy, and I ended up writing a James Rowson/Byron Buxton column I wasn’t previously planning on.
 
Also, my baby turns eight weeks old this Tuesday, and so we’re spending my paternity leave and some of my wife’s maternity leave on the road because we never take vacations. I mean seriously, look at this face:
 

 
So anyway, here goes nothing:

 
I think it’s too soon to say. I think it’ll probably take 2-to-3 season to know for sure, but I do know based on my conversations with guys on the big club that they’re not throwing away old ways of doing things, but are also emphasizing analytics quite a bit — and Jeff Pickler is at the forefront of those operations.
 
I do think though that they’re taking the slow and steady approach to this thing. They haven’t really turned over the 40-man roster that much — outside of mostly a bunch of inherited relievers — and didn’t do a ton in the offseason, either. I think bringing on two new catchers with good defensive skills was a way to evaluate existing players this season with their own eyes. That is to say, not holding what guys like Kyle Gibson did with different guys behind the plate and with whatever changes this new staff has implemented not yet taking shape yet.
 
In other words, it’s an evaluation year for basically everyone in the organization, and they’ll begin parting it out more in the offseason. I think it’s a smart way to do business.
 
https://twitter.com/MrKurimski/status/881948553517690880
 
You can target some cheaper rental relievers, but otherwise there isn’t much that can be done unless it’s taking on a lot of money or years in a contract that a team doesn’t want. That doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Twins right now. I think Pat Neshek makes a lot of sense if the Phillies aren’t asking for too much, but otherwise, I just stay the course. I’ve seen people clamoring for Brad Hand on the message boards and that makes no sense at all to me. A.J. Preller is going to straight up fleece someone in that deal, and it’s one reliever. Billy Wagner in his prime isn’t going to alter the course of what the Twins are going to do the rest of the year enough to merit this kind of trade, let alone Hand, who was not on the radar at all a year ago.
 
The smartest bullpens in today’s game are the ones who find Brad Hands, not trades for them. Look at the Red Sox with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. They paid quite a bit in trade equity for those two guys, and have gotten a combined 2.2 innings from the duo. I’ve seen people on the boards and on Twitter who would be OK with moving names like Stephen Gonsalves plus more for Hand. That’s absolutely preposterous.
 
Please click through to read the rest of this story on ZoneCoverage.com here.

Today, the New York Mets became the team to sign former Florida Gators and NFL quarterback Tim Tebow to a minor league contract. The assumption is that he'll head to either the instructional league or the Arizona Fall League. From essentially the news of a Tebow tryout broke, there have been feelings on both sides of the fence. When considering my stance, I simply can't get over the ridiculousness of the message both the Mets and professional baseball is sending.
 
As of today, Tim Tebow is a 29 year old that has not played organized baseball since he was a well rounded athlete at Neese High School. He's played since at The Swamp, and in big time NFL stadiums. He's been a quarterback, and now a TV Analyst. At no point in over ten years has he ever been a baseball player, until now.
 
Let's address a couple of the rebuttals I've seen on the interwebs this far. No, I don't dislike Tim Tebow. In fact, I believe he's a better NFL quarterback than at least a handful of current backups, and I'd personally rather see him start than one NFL quarterback. Whether you agree or not is irrelevant, the point is that I don't have a vengeance against the man at all. In fact, I think he's been blackballed from the sport he fits in simply because of the media frenzy that baseball is welcoming.
 
Secondly, there's this notion that it's just a minor league signing and that excuses any ill-advised decisions because they are (for the majority) all low risk crapshoots. Sure, there's a ton of players in minor league baseball, and a very minute amount that will ever reach the big leagues. Tebow though, was graded above average only in speed and raw power. When considering how fast you can run, or how far you can hit a meatball, teams don't typically line up to offer contracts to those that are received warmly.
 
I'd make the argument that hitting a baseball is quite possibly the most difficult athletic feat there is. A small round object is being thrown towards you at speeds of nearly 100 mph and you are tasked to make a split second decision to swing, and make contact, with a small round bat. It's not for the faint of heart, and those that are projected to develop into being capable of competing at the highest level have significant signs in their corner.
 
Understanding where Tebow is on his developmental curve, and the fact that he's at essentially the age a player typically reaches their prime, expecting him to progress substantially is a fool's errand. A below average thrower, hitter, and fielder, investing into him as a project could be better served with a player that may actually allow you to reap dividends.
 
It's not at all fair for me to suggest that the New York Mets are signing Tim Tebow simply as a publicity stunt. Obviously Tebow doesn't need the media attention, but it'd be silly not to assume that jersey sales and affiliate ticket sales wouldn't rise because of his presence. That all being said, GM Sandy Alderson isn't doing himself any favors to dispel the notion that's all this is either. Today he even went as far as wondering whether the Mets may have the former quarterback invited to big league spring training.
 
At the end of the day, the grind through minor league baseball is far from an easy one. It takes countless hours devoted to a craft you already possess better than average skills for. It's not for the faint of heart, and more often than not, it ends in heartbreak. Tebow is attacking that reality by working out with the Mets that he will continue to serve ESPN as an SEC analyst on the weekends, and he may even be on an Arizona Fall League (usually reserved for an organization's top talents) roster.
 
The showcase treatment for Tim Tebow as if he were some Cuban superstar was amazing in and of itself. The way the Mets have allowed it to progress from there has taken an even more interesting turn. Minor League baseball is professional baseball after all, and it shouldn't be used as a proving ground to try and expand decade old skills. Absolutely baseball has been looking for ways to drive new viewers to the sport, but making a mockery of itself in the form of some participation-trophy-esque fashion is a sad development.
 
There will be minor leagues that likely welcome the opportunity to be starstruck by the former NFL player, but if really considering it at its core, I'd assume the idea of Tebow being given a free pass isn't thrilling. There's a place for this kind of thing in non-affiliated Indy Leagues, but let's stop pretending this is any more legitimate than the farce it should be seen as.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In light of some posting styles we have been seeing lately on TD, I thought I'd do some venting of my own ... in a blog. The thread that broke this camel's back was this thread, 'It is time to end the insanity.' I've been meaning to address this for a while now, and have here and there in threads when posts become nothing more than venting general frustrations rather than addressing the topic at hand; and redundant threads get started on this same topic of frustration that seem more like rants than opening a new thread to discuss the latest news. Okay, okay ... the general topic of 'This is what's wrong with the Twins' is a topic of discussion ... but we've seen this in several threads already. Obviously there are new salient points that must be addressed, but it is this 'venting' and 'ranting' that becomes a detriment to my and others' enjoyment and participation in the forums.
 
I've always thought the purpose of the forums on TD is for discussion, critical discussion. Yes, with disagreements and passion, but, nonetheless, critical discussion, with maybe a little humor and/or snark mixed in from time to time, no matter what side you fall on with any given issue. Posters have always been encouraged to start threads to discuss a particular topic, or general topic, or a news item you saw, or a blog you read, or a question you have, or a move that was made/not made, management issues, player issues etc. And yes, those discussions will get emotional and passionate as we all have a vested interest in the outcome of the Twins, and have our own opinions on what should/should not be, and often disagree on the best way forward. And sometimes threads do get a bit meandering and off topic despite our best efforts to try and keep them within loose boundaries. But this recent posting style, such as the OP, in my opinion, really needs to be directed towards the Blogs area on this site. These threads, such as the one I made example of, serve no purpose other than to regurgitate a list of generalized complaints and are not focussed points of discussion and only invite generalized regurgitating of someone else's complaints. The title of this thread 'End the insanity' in and of itself just opens the floor to everyone's complaints and soon we have a morass of unpleasant vomiting to wade through. Yes, we're frustrated and I'm not trying to take that away from anyone, not in the least, because well, it IS frustrating, to no end, at least for me. And I guess we each have our own way of dealing, but the Blogs are there for you to let it all out. You want to vent? Start a blog and vent away. You want to have a legitimate, critical discussion, stick to the forums and structure a thread that leads to that; a post or a thread that has been thought out and isn't some generalized rant that has no real basis in reality other than it's some emotional response, not a genuine reading of facts, to what you think should have happened. Don't just vomit up all your frustration for the rest of us to wade through; that's just lazy. Those are the types of threads and posts that keep me from the forums, not the stances people may take on the Twins in general or specifically. If you don't like a topic, you are free to not read it. If you don't like a particular poster, put them on ignore or skip over their posts. So I find myself more and more throwing my hands up and 'walking away' because threads just become unreadable the more this style continues.
 
(Edit: I want to add that the thread I used as an example has generated a pretty fair and decent discussion. Many threads and posts of this 'listing of wrongs venting' have not. I'm in no way suggesting we can't be critical of the team and its management ... I mean, come on, look at the team ... I'm suggesting that don't just start a thread or make a post listing all that bothers you. Try to frame things so we can have legitimate discussions without being critical of fellow posters who might have a differing point of view, otherwise, try starting a blog. If you have to end a post or a thread start with '/end rant,' which this one did not, it probably would be better suited for a blog. They are very useful for 'getting it out' of your system. But given the OP of that thread, it was very easy for all of us to think to ourselves, 'Oy, this again?' and either walk away or get defensive or pile on. The following paragraph stands ... for all and everything. Stop the divisive language!)
 
Another issue I want to address: this generalized characterization of posters some of you think necessary to throw into their posts. This 'The Twins can do no wrong crowd' or the 'Twins can do no right crowd' is hugely disrespectful and dismissive, and from this moderator, will not be tolerated. If you want to divide and pick sides, fine, go play a game of dodge ball, your posts will be removed. Lumping posters into such 'all or nothing' categories because they choose to disagree with a point here and there needs to stop. I try to stay fairly objective, as objective as I can in my own like/dislike of certain topics, in my reading here, despite my own frustrations with the team, but there really are only two or three posters that fall into those mentioned categories on each end of this spectrum. The large majority of posters fall everywhere in between. Yes, some have definite leanings, but I have seen very, very few posters who have blindly taken these all or nothing stances on everything Twins. If all you want to do is read posts only in agreement with you, then you are in the wrong place. It is nothing but smug self-righteousness to declare yourself so right and others wrong and then to label others in such a dismissive way. It's the same with the negative/positive crowd. This is nothing but from your perspective, and your perspective is NOT the end all to defining anyone else. Say your piece. Have at it. And if others disagree, so be it. Have a debate, be open-minded to another's views and why they take them, give them the benefit of the doubt, ask for explanations, and disagree if you just disagree, but don't be dismissive about it by saying 'You're just part of that crowd.' If one poster likes a move and another doesn't, they are not in any of the above-mentioned crowds, they just differ in opinions. And if a poster wants to point out a silver lining or a black cloud, so what? It's their opinion and no one is right or wrong here. I'm not sure why that is so difficult to understand. Does it bruise egos when someone doesn't like your point, or picks it apart with their own interpretation of the facts, or their own use (right or wrong) of various metrics, stats, other numbers? Get over it. Don't double down and hunker down so hard you develop tunnel vision, and resort to the "Oh, you just hate so and so" or "Oh, you just love so and so" as an argument. It's unproductive, lazy and weak. And it gets old, and frankly, loses credibility for the poster who uses that as an argument. And maybe, just maybe, we don't need to fight to the end. When it gets to the point of labeling posters, I think it's time to agree to disagree and just let it go.
 
Okay ... I've run out of steam. Whew! That was so cathartic!!! You should give it a try.
 
See what I did there? Here's how I got started and so can you. There are all sorts of things to click on to help you find your way through the blogs. There's even a tutorial ... which I didn't click, because I didn't need to. So ... have at it.
 
1. On the red menu strip across the top, click on the word “Blogs”
2. Click on the black rectangle that says ‘Create a Blog’
3. Read the terms and rules, then check the box that says you have read and understood the terms, then click ‘Continue—>’
4. Fill in the blanks with the Blog name, Blog description, choose blog type, then click continue.
Example: Blog Name: ChiTown’s Fun Takes
Blog Description: All that frustrates me about the Twins
Blog Type: Local Blog
5. Choose your settings
6. Save
 
At that point you can choose ‘Options’ and then ‘Add new entry’ and go to town. Or leave, collect your thoughts, come back and choose ‘Blogs’ from the red menu strip across the top, click ‘Add Entry’ and go to town.

This offseason, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan announced that they'd be moving their hulking slugger to right field. Despite having DH'd for the majority of 2015 and having played in the infield thus far, Miguel Sano was moving on to greener pastures. The changes has been met with skepticism, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
 
Let's start off internally. Minnesota employed Torii Hunter in right last year. He gave Paul Molitor a .240/.293/.409 slash line on offense, while making six errors in the field en route to a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) total, and a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). In total, he was worth just 0.5 fWAR and was almost solely valuable for the locker room presence he was toted to bring with him.
 
Considering that narrative, it's pretty plausible to suggest that Sano is immediately going to be better for Minnesota than hunter was. Offensively, in just 80 games, the Dominican slugger posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line along with 18 homers and 52 runs batted in. By all indications, Sano is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come. Considering that offensive prowess, and the low bar Hunter left in right, Sano should have no problem settling in.
 
From there though, it's also a legitimate argument to look at Sano among baseball's best in right field.
 
Purely from an offensive standpoint, Sano takes a back seat to no one. After posting a 2.0 fWAR across just half a season, Steamer projects Sano to improve that mark to a 3.4 fWAR in 2016, and that may be conservative. Defensively, Sano shouldn't hurt his value too significantly (if at all), and a full season of offense could definitely vault him into the realm of a 4.0 fWAR player.
 
Looking at what right field offers across the landscape of big leaguers, Sano would come in 7th (just behind Jose Bautista) should he reach that 4.0 fWAR mark. The players ahead of him would be few, and include just Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, and the aforementioned Bautista. Looking at that group, it's also fair to suggest that with any bit of acclimation to his new role, Sano could overtake everyone from Granderson on down.
 
Pushing Sano to right field, while maybe not the most well received, seems to be shaping up like the correct move. A gifted athlete, Sano should have very little trouble once he settles in. Being a third basemen, it's more than fair to suggest that standing in right field would be a much less taxing defensive role. Utilizing his quickness from the hot corner, and his arm strength, Sano possesses some unteachable abilities. Surprisingly fleet of foot for his size, Sano can also be taught many of the nuances the position will demand should he commit to putting in the time.
 
On the surface, it's totally understandable to be somewhat taken aback or skeptical of the Twins decision to follow through with the Sano to the outfield campaign. When taking a deeper look at how it may play out though, there's little reason to suggest it doesn't put Molitor's best lineup on the field. Even if things work out moderately well, Minnesota will have to be pleased.
 
At the end of the day, if Miguel Sano can't play right field, he's not going to be able to play third base. The assumption though should be that he can, and will play right field. With a little bit of work and some luck, he could vault himself into the best at the position in The Show, and that's no small feat.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

In an article posted early Friday afternoon, Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported that Minnesota Twins catcher-turned-first baseman Joe Mauer has continued to suffer from concussion symptoms, including blurred vision, over the past two seasons. (Click here to read the article)
 
This is some scary stuff.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/MauerST11j-1024x767.jpg
Joe Mauer (Photo: SD Buhr)

The Mauer story has been beaten to death, so I won’t rehash everything here. Suffice to say, Mauer was on a near-certain Hall of Fame catching career arc before the beatings he took behind the plate led to multiple concussions and, ultimately, a move to first base.
 
(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
The hope was that the position move would allow him to play more games and, not inconsequentially, give him a much better chance of living out the rest of his life without dealing with Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE).
 
While Mauer has never played more games or made more plate appearances in a season than he did in 2015, he has not hit baseballs in the manner that made him a three-time American League batting champion and 2009 AL MVP. Now, perhaps, we know why.
 
Murphy included a number of interesting (some would say troubling) quotes from Mauer, including the following two statements concerning the vision problems he would occasionally deal with.
 
“It could be a lot of things,” Mauer continued. “There are so many different symptoms. For me it was lighting, I couldn’t really pick up the ball. It was blurry at times."
 
And:
 
“If you’re just a little off, you’re fouling off pitches you should be driving into the gap,” he said. “In the big leagues, you don’t get too many more opportunities to see good ones to hit.”
 
This is certainly a true statement. Major League pitchers throw fastballs that run between 90 and 100 miles per hour and mix them with offspeed pitches that prevent even the best hitters (those with perfect vision) from being able to react with perfect timing. Given that Mauer has apparently not benefited from perfect vision, it’s not surprising that he has fallen from the ranks of the game’s best hitters.
 
But that was not my first reaction to reading the Mauer quote.
 
I can’t be the only person whose first thought was that, if blurred vision causes Mauer to be, “just a little off,” the last situation into which he should place himself is standing 60 feet away from a man throwing a baseball 95 miles per hour.
 
Joe Mauer is a professional athlete who has competed at the highest level of his profession and, while he famously may not have a reputation for demonstrating it outwardly in a manner recognizable to fans, he has a competitive nature that no doubt causes him to think first and foremost about how factors influence his ability to perform at levels he has become accustomed to.
 
It’s easy to see, from the other statements he made to Murphy, that the desire to regain his game and help his team to succeed has resulted in him not only continuing to take the field in spite of continued concussion symptoms, but also be less than 100% forthcoming with his manager and others in the organization about those ongoing symptoms.
 
I haven’t read much of the social media reaction to this article yet, but I’m sure there will be a lot of criticism of Mauer. After all, criticism of Mauer has almost surpassed drilling holes in the ice and pretending to fish while you drink excessive volumes of bad beer as the favorite pastime of a certain segment of the Minnesota population.
 
Personally, I’ve made enough poor life decisions in my nearly six decades of time on this planet that I try to refrain from criticizing the decisions others make concerning how they lead their lives.
 
I’m not concerned right now about whether Mauer’s continued presence in the Twins lineup is a positive or negative for the short, middle or long term success of my favorite MLB team.
 
I simply do not want to see Mauer’s career end in a frightful manner.
 
According to the article, Mauer says he has been more asymptomatic during his offseason workouts this year and that he’ll be trying new exercises and even wearing sunglasses this spring to try to keep the vision issues at bay and regain his productivity at the plate.
 
I hope he’s successful. I hope that this summer, finally, he will be symptom-free and will hit baseballs in a manner that will remind all of us, himself included, of the Joe Mauer we watched before the concussion problems surfaced.
 
However, if he finds himself unable to see clearly every pitch thrown in his direction at a dangerously high rate of speed, I hope he’ll realize that continuing to expose himself to that kind of risk is not in his best future interests - nor that of his family.

Going into the offseason, Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor made quick work of releasing the information that Miguel Sano was going to try and make a transition to the outfield. The exciting slugger needed to make room for Byung Ho Park, and playing right field was how the Twins were going to handle that. The notion was met with skepticism and an almost guaranteed thought that in the end, Trevor Plouffe would be dealt from the Twins.
 
In the end though, Plouffe has stayed put, and it creates a best possible scenario for the Twins.
 
Although Sano is entering uncharted territory in the outfield, there's reason to believe that it could work. What's more important though, is exactly how much Plouffe means to Minnesota. For Molitor's squad, there was no logical return that was going to bring back what Plouffe meant to the lineup. Most importantly is that the production Plouffe brings may be under appreciated.
 
A season ago, Trevor Plouffe was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Twins, down from a 3.6 fWAR in 2014. Unfortunately for those stuck on projections, Steamer sees just a 1.6 fWAR for the Twins third basemen in 2016. It really depends on what Plouffe is able to play throughout the entirety of the season however.
 
In a handful of categories, Plouffe set new records for himself a year ago. He played in a career high 152 games, scored 74 runs, picked up 140 hits, tripled four times, homered 22 times, drove in 86 runs, and looked every bit the part of one of the best third basemen in baseball. The problem is that Plouffe's season was a tale of two parts.
 
From Opening Day until the end of July, Plouffe slashed a respectable .257/.316/.456 as well as clubbing 14 of his homers and driving in 55 of his runs. Of his 35 doubles on the season, 24 of them came before August, then things changed. From August 1st through the end of the season, Plouffe slashed an ugly .223/.294/.398. He homered just eight more times, and he struck out 53 times in 56 starts. The momentum from the better part of the season had fallen off of a cliff.
 
So why does it matter that Plouffe is still in the middle of the Twins lineup? Because for a team that will rely on offense, the California product has shown he can be a catalyst for it. When called upon to handle the load as the cleanup hitter, Plouffe went through issue. In 68 starts from the four-hole, he slashed just .223/.284/.400, launching eight of his homers. At his best, hitting from the five-spot in the lineup, Plouffe slashed .274/.332/.489 with 11 of his homers.
 
Dropping in the lineup behind the likes of 2016 power hitters, Sano and Park, Plouffe is given an opportunity to see pitches in a more ideal situation. Allowing Plouffe to hit in a lesser lineup role in the year ahead could foster the same type of early season production the Twins saw from their third basemen, but allow them to benefit for an entire 162.
 
At the end of the day, Plouffe wasn't going to net the Twins much more than a relief arm. Considering the benefit to the lineup as one of their best hitters, keeping him and pairing his bat with the likes of Sano, Park, and Brian Dozier should help the Twins to create offensive opportunities in an abundant fashion.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Today, I want to revisit something I wrote in a prior post. The subject (as so many things written by so many people has been) was centered around what the Twins should do with regard to Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton.
 

Maybe you take them aside and say, “Guys, if you’re healthy in April, you’re going to be Minnesota Twins. You may perform like Kennys Vargas or you may look more like Aaron Hicks, but you’re going to stay in Minnesota. You will not be sent back to the minors. From this point forward, you are Major League baseball players. Now get to work and act like it.” 

The thing is, you can’t wait until spring training to make this decision. It wouldn’t be fair to Trevor Plouffe. 

If Sano is going to step in as your primary third baseman, Plouffe needs to spend some time this winter learning to play left field. Maybe he and Joe Mauer could learn together. 

For that matter, I’d tell Sano to go out there and shag some fly balls, too, because I’m not convinced the Twins won’t discover they’re better off defensively with Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at the hot corner. 
What's that? You say you're one of the five or so people who have read everything I've posted this offseason and you don't recall reading any of that? Well, you're absolutely correct.
 
I offered those recommendations in October - of 2014.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Buxton2015-600x400.jpg
Byron Buxton (Photo: SD Buhr)

That just demonstrates that I'm never wrong with my ideas, just occasionally ahead of the curve! Eventually, conventional wisdom (and that of the Twins' front office) comes around to my way of thinking. They really should just listen to me in the first place, right?
 
(This article originally appeared at Knuckleballsblog.com)
 
So was I prescient or premature? Based on the reactions I received to these suggestions 14 months ago, most would say I was premature - that it was simply too soon for Sano and Buxton to be plugged into the Twins starting lineup right out of the gate in 2015.
 
Maybe. But, with the benefit of hindsight, I'd say I'd still like to have seen what kind of results the Twins would have had if they had benefited from a full season of Sano-Buxton, rather than half a season of Sano and only enough Buxton to show eventual flashes of his potential at the end of the season.
 
Of course, based on the reactions we see to the Twins trading Aaron Hicks and their statements concerning plans to use Sano in the outfield in 2016, a lot of fans would say I was neither prescient nor premature, but I was simply wrong then and wrong now.
 
I've been critical of front office decisions with some regularity over the past few years (but then, who hasn't?), but I'm on board with both the trade of Hicks to fill a definite need at catcher and the plan to give Sano a look in the outfield.
 
Maybe Hicks will become another Carlos Gomez, emerging as an All-Star performer in another organization's outfield after escaping Minnesota. But, for me, Buxton remains far more likely to become that All-Star outfielder and he's not going to reach that level by spending more time in Rochester. He needs to be told he's the Opening Day centerfielder and neither he nor the Twins should waffle from that decision, even if he opens the year a little slow. He won't disappoint.
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/SanoST15-600x400.jpg
As a minor leaguer in spring training, Miguel Sano wore no. 24. Will he replace the player currently wearing that jersey with the Twins? (photo: SD Buhr)

A lot of people make a big deal of Sano's size, doubting that a guy weighing in at nearly 270 pounds has any business playing the outfield. Ordinarily, I might agree. But Miguel Sano is not your ordinary 270-pound athlete. If he can learn to take at least decent routes to fly balls and, obviously, catch the balls he gets to, I think he'll impress us. Of course, it's not a given that he'll be able to do those things. We have nothing to go on, positive or negative, to judge at this point whether he can do those things. But anyone thinking he'll be another plodding outfielder in the mold of Young, Willingham or Arcia are, I believe, going to be proven wrong.
 
As I wrote a year ago, it wouldn't hurt for Plouffe (and perhaps even Mauer) to shag some fly balls, as well. If it does turn out that Sano simply can't field the position, there will be a need for Plan B. If Byung Ho Park transitions well from Korea to the American League, the Twins are going to need to find another way to keep the bats of both Park and Sano in the lineup every day. It seems unlikely that MLB will grant manager Paul Molitor special dispensation to use two designated hitters.
 
There's a lot of uncertainty in all of this, but there are two things we and the Twins do know - Trevor Plouffe can play a solid third base and Joe Mauer can do the same at first base. We don't know if Sano and Park can do the same. I suspect we'll all know a lot more about who is capable of doing what by June, but for now, I'm okay with what the Twins appear to be planning to do - let the guys who have demonstrated an ability to play infield defense do so and bet on Sano's athleticism being good enough to fill the third outfield spot along with Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton.
 
General Manager Terry Ryan has a few things left to do this offseason to finalize his roster and if he gets overwhelmed with an offer for Plouffe, he can accept it. However, based on what we're seeing of the third base market, that seems unlikely to happen and he shouldn't give Plouffe away for a handful of magic beans.
 
But I have no problem with him betting on Buxton and Sano making him look smart a year from now. After all, not many people have gone wrong betting on the ability of those two men to do just about anything on a baseball field.

Three years ago, we Peanuts adopted a prospect. A delightful prospect we thought could grow into an intimidating reliever...or at least his beard could. A guy we cared for, and supported through thick and (more frequently) thin, until finally, we waved good bye as he ran joyfully through a field upstate, where all the released prospects go when they're released.
 
We spent a year in mourning, but we're ready to re-open our hearts, to another prospect. And to that end, we've adopted another in the long line of promising potential relievers. Who may make it themselves, or may be cobbled together by Terry Ryan in some sort of Genetically Modified "SUPER RELIEVER". But enough context, let's meet our guy!
http://m.twins.mlb.com/assets/images/1/0/6/97201106/cuts/twins_mbbal9a2_yyci6gxa.jpg
 
This is JT Chargois
 
JT Chargois (pronounced SHA-gwa) was born in Sulphur, Louisiana, where he was a Golden Tornado just like former major leaguers "Jocko" Thomas, Pat Rapp and former Twin Casey Daigle.
 
JT was recruited by and joined the Rice Owls when he left High School in 2009, though apparently he didn't need much convincing to join Rice since his dad praised both their athletics and their academics. Still, he left the Owls after his impressive Junior year when the Twins drafted him (as well as fellow Owl Tyler Duffey) in the second round of the 2015 draft. Many were excited about him as a nearly developed prospect, while my traditional 5 word analysis was: "Spikey" Curveball helps: in ROLLERBALL!!
 
(An explanatory note: Major League Baseball's capsule on Chargois during the 2012 Draft described his curveball as "Spikey". Not knowing exactly what that meant or looked like, I did what any responsible blogger would do and ignored the opportunity for research in order to make a lame joke about a 1970s James Caan Sci-Fi Sports Flick.)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_7WL8YT7JOT0/S48syMkUc8I/AAAAAAAAFv4/7cwWYlU_cUQ/s200/Rollerball%2B-%2BOutlast%2BThe%2BGame%2BFront.gif
DEEP CUT!
 
After a strong debut at Elizabethton (where he finished 8 games, had a 4.4 K/BB ratio and a sub 1 WHIP), Chargois came to spring training 2013 ready to rise quickly. But elbow soreness sent him to extended spring training, then rehab, and finally in the fall of 2013 Tommy John surgery. Having missed the entire 2014 season, Chargois has done well in instructional league and this year's spring training and has started the year with the Ft. Myers Miracle (where he already has one save to his credit). While he's a year older than most High A players, he's also in a good position to rise quickly.
 
That all makes this a critical year for JT. If everything goes great, he'll move fast and may even be a potential September call-up (assuming Twins relievers implode...a crazy notion I know). If it goes well, it would be reasonable to see him hit AAA and force the Twins into a tricky decision (as Seth already outlined), either putting him on the 40 man roster or risk losing him through the Rule 5 draft. If it goes poorly, the risk of not putting him on the 40-man Roster will plummet, and JT will be facing an even more pressing season coming up. At least so far it looks very good (as this video with the mix of his fastball and curve shows).
 
 
So why should you care about JT Chargois? Besides his tremendous upside, he seems like another excellent candidate for our "SUPER RELIEVER" project. His Curveball may be the kind of devastating secondary pitch a reliever needs. And also, if I can make it happen, he has excellent nickname potential. "SPIKE" Chargois anyone?
 
We'll keep up the bi-monthly updates in the forum, and will continue to work out a monthly major update

Today the posts have mostly been negative with three young players optioned to AAA. Many have pointed out that the rebuilding Twins won't have a single rookie from their system on the 25-man roster going north. The average age of the team won't be considerably different.
 
Despite all of this, I'm optimistic that the Twins will improve. The next wave is very close and they could provide a real boost. I have predicted/advocated for Hicks to be demoted since the end of the regular season and while Schafer/Robinson isn't optimum, the better of Hicks or Rosario should be ready before mid-season.
 
The pitching rotation will be better. Any regression from Hughes should be matched by regression for Nolasco. I think Gibson will be really good and Santana will be the best #4 starter the Twins have had since the 90s. I hope the leash isn't long for the bullpen.
 
I have predicted 85 wins, really against all odds. I think there is enough talent there to improve even though the division will be tough. It will take filling of inside straights and rolling sevens, but I'm sticking with 85 wins, with or without Meyer, May, Rosario or Hicks and a bunch of relievers.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
This is the third and last, but not least, segment in this series. You can find the first segment (fixing the bullpen) and the rationale for the series here, and the second segment (fixing the outfield) here. I think that the most important (and some times the hardest or the easiest) thing to fix for the Twins to win, is the team attitude.
 
How do you measure attitude and how does attitude prevent some one to win, and what is that "attitude" thing anyway. Isn't that thing that your parents and teachers talked about when you were growing up, or something else. Well, as far as baseball goes, I will let former Twins' player and Texas Rangers' manager Ron Washington describe it in this 30 second video. To borrow Washington's words from there, a winning attitude is when you "expect to win" and "do everything you need to do to win". Arguably, the Minnesota Twins the last couple of decades has as motto (at their best,) do all you can do (aka bust your tail) and you win some, you lose some. Those were exactly the words of a smiling Michael Cudduyer at the Twins' dugout, on September 30, 2008, after the Twins lost game 163 at the White Sox (and part of the reason was that Cuddyer did not do what he needed to do to win, colliding with and forcing the ball out of AJ Pierzynski's glove to score.)
 
And giving it all and being "good enough" has been the Twins' motto. And the majority of the fans were ok with "good enough", winning the title of the weakest division in baseball about half of the time, going belly up during the post-season and when they played the AL East, in the 00s. And if the fans are happy with "good enough", you get a brand new ballpark and brand new season ticket sales and that is more that "good enough" as far as revenue goes, when it is not broken, why even bother to think about fixing it? That was the Twins' past decade of "Glory", in half a paragraph. And then it went South.
 
What happened? Well, the Twins did not even do all they could do in the ballpark; add that to a culture of favoritism in the clubhouse, where it did not matter to whether the veterans did all they could do, but when people outside the inner circle opened their mouths were thought under the proverbial bus; add that to not expecting to win, to start with, and you got 99 + 96 + 96 + 92. And most importantly, no excuses for even the most single-sighted fans to believe that this team can win, thus a drop in tickets, thus a drop in revenue, thus...
 
To win, a team needs a leader who expects to win and make sure that his players and coaches do everything they need to do to win. Here was the most common expression of the previous Twins' leader during games the last several seasons (hanging on to the dugout railing optional) :
 

 
Is this the expression someone who is doing all he needed to do to win and lead by example. Is this the expression of someone who expects his team to win? Or is this the expression of someone who looks defeated and solemn? Rhetorical question.
 
There was not a more obvious time for me to see that the Twins players not only doing what they needed to do, but not even all they could do, and was fine with the manager and the coaches, than this particular game last spring training. Before I went down there last season, I did have hopes that with the changes they made in the rotation, plus some players improving, had a chance to break even and have an 81-81 record. But after what I saw, I predicted that the Twins will end up the 2014 season with a 70-92 record.
 
That is the past, and tomorrow I am landing at Fort Myers where I will be for more than a week and be able to see how thing are, but I have a good feeling that they are heading the right way. Other than getting rid of their manager and pitching coach, which by itself is adding 10 wins pretty much, and replacing them with good baseball people and a Hall of Famer as manager, they brought back Torii Hunter. It did not make much sense at the beginning, and I think that they guy is a prick, plus he left the Twins' in free agency just for money and he added insult to the injury, by singing with the biggest division rival in his second free agency, but there might be something positive: As I indicated here, Hunter can help the young players (who were tainted by the Twins' clubhouse attitude, it is no secret) realize that they have to at least give it all and lead by example.
 
I have seen signs from Molitor that he is leading his players towards doing what they need to do. First example, was the no-cell phone policy during game days, which was awful last season. Players need to focus in the game and not in their social media during game day. Second, he benched Aaron Hicks during a game for losing track of outs; a gesture that has not happened during a Twins' Spring Training since 1965, when Sam Mele, the Twins' manager, took Zoilo Versalles (the eventual 1965 MVP) out of the lineup because of lack of effort. And you know what the Twins did in 1965. Also, after a couple of mishaps in short fly balls and lack of communication between infielders and outfielder, Molitor had extra drills of those circumstances with the whole team. The whole team. In previous years, veterans and the inner circle would be excluded and only few would participate in similar drills.
 
There are a lot of positive signs about (at least) a realization that the teams attitude needed to change to win, and actual steps taken this direction. I will be able to know more about how things will play out in this department, in 10 days or so, after I return from Fort Myers and see the team play this Spring. Last year I predicted that 70-92, based on what I saw, I hope that this year, it is the reverse...

I originally wrote the following analysis of Terry Ryan as GM of the Minnesota Twins for The National Pastime, 2012: Short but Wondrous Summers: Baseball in the North Star State. I was the editor of the publication—one I heartily recommend by the way for those interested in the history of baseball in Minnesota--and pulled the essay just prior to publication when the publisher informed me that we had gone over our allotted page count. It is great to have this outlet to finally run the article. Due to its length and a natural break point about half way through, I am breaking it into two halves.
 
 
Given this disparity among the resources and opportunities available to the various front offices, is there a way to objectively evaluate some of the more important facets of their performance beyond wins and losses? In fact, there are some aspects of the general manager’s role that can be quantified. Using the Retrosheet transactions database I evaluated all the moves made by the Twins after Ryan's hiring in September 1994 through the end of the 2007 season. Obviously, using this type of analysis to assess Ryan assigns the ultimate responsibility for all transactions--rightly or wrongly--to the general manager.
 
In this short investigation I examine the value of players lost via free agency, outright release, the expansion draft, waivers and trades, and players acquired via amateur free agency (i.e. players not eligible for the draft), free agency, waivers and trades. Unfortunately this is not quite as straightforward as it might seem: for example, players who become free agents and are subsequently re-signed; in the database these players are shown as both lost via free agency and gained through free agency. The net effect is zero, but it increases the total volume of talent coming and going. Another example is players who come and go before they become established major leaguers. As an illustration of this issue, Casey Blake was claimed on waivers, lost on waivers, reclaimed on waivers, and subsequently released before he achieved any significant major league playing time. While it makes sense to account for them this way--each transaction needs to be evaluated on its own merits and the Twins free agents were certainly available to any team--these multiple moves can make the talent velocity appear greater than it might otherwise be.
 
For each player involved in a transaction, I calculated the WAR he would earn over the balance of his career. For players still active, WAR is calculated through the 2008 season, the last season for which I have been able to generate the data set (obviously many of these players will significantly increase their career totals). [i would like to update this in the future]
 
So, what does Ryan's scorecard look like? The table below summarizes the cumulative WAR surrendered and gained in all the Twins transactions from the fall of 1994 through his retirement in 2007.
 
WAR From Twins Transactions Under Ryan’s Tenure
[table]


Transaction Type


From Min


To Min




Players Becoming Free Agents


42






Players Released


54






Players Lost in Expansion Draft


9






Amateur Free Agent Signing




10




Free Agent Signing




80




Waivers




36




Trades


102


164




Total


218


290


[/table]
 
Despite working under relatively tight financial constraints for most of his tenure, Ryan lost surprisingly little talent to free agency. Only Kenny Rogers, already 38 years old when he left after one season with the Twins, produced more than five wins above replacement after leaving the Twins as a free agent.
 
Surprisingly, Ryan's two most significant personnel blunders came from releasing two players with significant major league ability, and both came after the 2002 season. In October he released Casey Blake, who would go on to become a valuable contributor with the Indians. More significantly, in December Ryan compounded his error by releasing David Ortiz, who became a perennial MVP contender. Both could have played important roles on the competitive Twins teams from 2003 through 2006. In addition, the loss of Damian Miller to the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft proved surprisingly costly. Miller went on to several seasons as a quality major league catcher.
 
Given his financial constraints, it is not surprising that Ryan never signed any high-priced free agents. But he often tried to augment his team with bargain priced players with some upside. As mentioned above, Ryan had some success in the mid-1990s. Later he received a quality season from Kenny Rogers before losing him. Ryan also landed several useful role players, such as Mike Redmond, at a reasonable price. Some of his most notable free agent moves involved re-signing his own veterans, such as Radke and Shannon Stewart, on a short-term basis.
 
For most of Ryan’s tenure, the Twins did not develop many players from Latin America. In the mid-1990s the Twins landed two players who would become useful major leaguers--Luis Rivas and Juan Rincon--but added none of consequence over the next decade. Ryan's staff did smartly pluck Bobby Kielty from the U.S. amateur ranks when he was available outside of the draft.
 
Ryan may have distinguished himself most clearly in his ability to make quality trades. His worst trade, in terms of value differential, was the swap of Todd Walker to Colorado for little in return. As an extenuating circumstance with this trade, however, the Twins also received cash. Ryan’s regime can be credited with several outstanding deals. Most have been mentioned above: the trades of A.J. Pierzynski and Chuck Knoblauch each added two valuable players. Trading Dave Hollins for David Ortiz was also a great move, unfortunately later vitiated by the latter's release.
 
To get a better sense of the Twins drafting success under Ryan, I calculated the total career WAR from all players picked in each year’s draft from 1987, when Ryan first joined the Twins as scouting director, through 2001, when the Twins selected Joe Mauer with the first overall pick. Draft classes more recent than 2001 have not had a chance to mature sufficiently through 2008 for a valid evaluation. One needs to be cautious, however, when evaluating drafts. How many early picks a team has, how high in the first round they pick and how much money the team is willing to spend on signing bonuses all affect a team’s draft success without reflecting on the acumen of the team’s front office.
 
Twins WAR from the Draft (1987 - 1994)
[table]



1987


1988


1989


1990


1991


1992


1993


1994




Twins


8.1


-2.3


94.6


37.5


62.9


-0.1


18.4


45.0




Lg Avg


29.5


27.0


30.8


22.8


23.8


16.5


17.7


12.5




Diff


-21.4


-29.3


63.8


14.7


39.1


-16.6


0.7


32.5


[/table]
 
Twins WAR from the Draft (1995-2001)
[table]



1995


1996


1997


1998


1999


2000


2001




Twins


15.3


8.2


12.7


2.5


12.2


-1.3


26.8




Lg Avg


17.7


14.9


11.8


15.0


14.5


9.6


8.2




Diff


-2.4


-6.7


0.9


-12.5


-2.3


-10.9


18.6


[/table]
 
Caveats aside, Ryan’s record with the draft was mixed. On the positive side, while scouting director Ryan oversaw two stellar draft classes: in 1989 he landed Chuck Knoblauch, Scott Erickson, and Denny Neagle; two years later Ryan brought in Brad Radke and Matt Lawton. During his time as general manager the Twins selected several players that went on to become stars. Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer, all drafted in the first three rounds between 1997 and 2001, anchored the Twin’s teams of the mid-2000s. Ryan and his staff also generally recognized their better players and studiously avoided including those who would have a solid major league future in trades. On the other hand, the Twins had a top-6 or higher overall pick in 1998, 1999 and 2000 and came away with little to show for it.
 
But if Terry Ryan and his staff had at least a couple of years of professional baseball with which to evaluate a player, they were formidable. In trades, particularly after his first year on the job, the prospects Ryan acquired developed into capable major leaguers more often than could be reasonably expected. His veteran free agent signings also generally turned out well, and he rarely lost key players to free agency. Two of his more significant misses had extenuating circumstances: the trade of Todd Walker netted the team cash, and David Ortiz was arbitration eligible, 27 years old and had yet to play a full major league season, mainly due to injuries.
 
A general manager's job, of course, entails more than talent acquisition, and sometimes a team is in a position where the key decisions involve sorting out the talent (including possibly surrendering more talent than one receives) to alleviate an abundance at one position and solve a dearth at another. But the luxury of rearranging one's talent first requires building a solid talent base. Ryan consistently surrendered less talent than he received as he built a well-balanced team that captured four division championships between 2002 and 2006.
 
After four seasons of retirement, Ryan returned as general manager, hired to once again retool the Twins after a 99-loss season in 2011. “I don’t know if it will be for one year or 10 years,” Ryan said. “I’m going to see how it goes and see exactly the direction of success and workload and all the things that about 4 1/2 years ago we talked about over at the Dome.” Ryan also identified some of the issues the organization needed to address, including a large number of missed games due to injuries, placing the onus to fix the problems squarely on his shoulders. “Players can only take advice. Players take the advice you give them,” Ryan said. “I would never put it on the players. It’s our responsibility to take control of that and we will.”
 
To read more about the history of baseball operations and the GM, please buy our new book In Pursuit of Pennants–Baseball Operations from Deadball to Moneyball via the publisher or at your favorite on-line store.