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brvama

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  1. Like
    brvama reacted to Andrew Luedtke for a blog entry, Foot, Meet Throat: A 2020 Offseason Blueprint   
    In January 2019, Thad Levine answered a question at Twins Fest:
     
    "The best time to acquire players of that magnitude is when your window to win is wide open, not when you got your fingers underneath the window and you're trying to jam the window open. I want to do it when we're projected to win the Central and we're ready to put our foot on someone's throat".
     
     
    After a fantastic 2019 season ending in a disappointing fashion, Derek Falvey addressed the media and is quoted as saying "We're going to target impact pitching".
     
    Well, time to put up or shut up, Falvine.
     
    I put together what I believe should be a realistic outcome for the 2020 offseason based on the above statements from the front office.
     
    1. Leave the historic 2019 offense alone
     

     
    In this plan, I didn't change anything with the offense that set a MLB record for home runs. This includes picking up CJ Cron's option.
     
    As long as the team is healthy, they should have no problem scoring runs. Maybe the biggest move was the one not made - trading Eddie Rosario.
     
    I don't think the Twins (nor the fans) are going to like what the return for Rosario would be. Keeping the unofficial captain of this team intact will keep the offense rolling. Hopefully a healthy ankle will help him move around the outfield better improving on his down defensive metrics. I am hopeful Eddie might even take a step forward in 2020.
     


     
    2. Beef up the bullpen
     
    The one silver lining in the Sam Dyson injury is that the Twins were forced to use other arms in high leverage situations down the stretch. They discovered Tyler Duffey and Zack Littell could be solid pieces in late innings. Adding to an already promising mix with Will Harris (2/$16M contract) and Drew Pomeranz (2/$7mil contract) will give Rocco plenty of options in 2020.
     
    Will Harris quitely had a 2019 season with a 1.50 ERA and 9.30 K/9 in 60 innings. Oh, and he has appeared in 23 postseason games - 12 of which came this year during the Astros World Series run. His age (35 on opening day) could be one cause for concern. A two year deal feels right, here.
     
    Drew Pomeranz is an interesting one. An absolute disaster in 2018 and most of 2019 makes this signing questionable. However, 26 innings of lights out baseball in Milwaukee make it seem like there may be more potential here. He has increased his velocity after a permanent move to the bullpen, has always been lights out vs lefties, and now will be working with Wes Johnon. Sign. Me. Up.
     
    Pair him with Taylor Rogers and we could be looking at a bullpen that is a nightmare for opposing managers playing matchups. Pomeranz would come at a discount, of course.
     


     
    3. Sign a veteran backup catcher
     
    Martin Maldonado makes some sense here as a backup. Very poor offensively but a solid backstop. I would be open to other options here, such as Jason Castro on a one year deal, but am thinking he would want a chance to start somewhere else. I know Anaheim needs a catcher
     


     
    4. Go find an "ace" starter and keep Jake Odorizzi
     

     
    OK, it's put up time, Falvine. Sign Zack Wheeler.
     
    When you said "impact pitching" - this is what it means.
     
    Not Kevin Correia or Mike Pelfrey which is some people's opinion of impact (*cough* Terry Ryan).
     
    Go get us a guy that is equal to, or, with the potential to be better than Jose Berrios.
     
    This free agent market is flush with solid top of the rotation targets that do not grow on trees, for the Minnesota farm system at least. I think Wheeler makes a lot of sense. A 5/$125M contract would be by far the biggest free agent contract in Twins history but, the time is now.
     
    There is no excuse. Get. It. Done.
     
    Zack Wheeler 2018-2019:
     
    Innings: 377
    ERA: 3.65
    K/9: 8.9
     
    Yeah, I'd take that in this rotation.
     
    Other acceptable "ace" type pitchers - Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, or Hyun-jin Ryu
     
    Also, depending on the outcome of Odorizzi and his qualifying offer, the Twins have to find a way to bring him back. If he rejects, they have the upper hand compared to other teams. A three year deal sounds about right. Plus, Jake likes it here. His kids are Vikings fans now. I pray for them.
     
    5. Bring in a vet presence to stablize rotation
     
     
    MLB.com reported that Cole Hamels is open to a one-year deal on a win now club.
     
    Hey, Cole! Over here!
     
    Come on out to Minnesota.
     
    Bringing in a veteran like Cole with playoff experience (and a connection to Thad Levine, might I add) will stabalize the rotation and give a solid 4 starters to run train on the AL Central in the regular season, plus be ready for any October opposing matchup.
     
    Hamels put up soild numbers as a Cub. He was lights out in the first half of 2019 but an injury derailed the mid point of his season, and it never really seemed like he recovered.
     
    A 2020 rotation of:
     
    1. Wheeler
    2. Berrios
    3. Odorizzi
    4. Hamels
    5. Dobnak/Graterol
     
    Sounds like a winning recipe to me. A recipe that might not add up to 101 regular season wins again, but hey, it can't do worse in the playoffs!
     
    *This was not a dare, @BaseballGods*
     


     
    Total payroll: $141.5 million
     
    A Twins franchise record but very realistic. Anything lower than this, with the free agent pitching market as stacked as it is and a desperate need to fill the rotation, is an absolute insult to the fanbase.
     
    The improbable 2019 Twins magic season captured fan interest in Minnesota again. We got a taste of playoff baseball at Target Field for the first time in 9 years and we want more. The window is wide open. It's time for the Pohlad's and the front office to honor their promises and give us a team to dream on in 2020.
     
    Foot, meet throat.
     
    Time to stomp on the competition in the AL central and get back to the playoffs.
     
     


  2. Like
    brvama reacted to Nash Walker for a blog entry, Why Jordan Balazovic has the makings of an ace   
    Rightly so, Twins fans are very excited about Brusdar Graterol, the flame-throwing 21-year-old from Venezuela. Graterol was called up to the Twins bullpen last summer and mostly impressed, even touching 102 MPH on his sinker. Graterol will be in the rotation soon enough, and his future partner in crime, the one they call "Jordy Blaze,” is on his way to stardom.
     
    Jordan Balazovic was drafted in the 5th round of the 2016 Amateur Draft out of Mississauga, Canada. Balazovic played in eight Gulf Coast League games as a 17-year-old and posted a 1.97 ERA. Balazovic was mediocre at Class A in 2018 with a 3.94 ERA and 7-3 record. While Balazovic had a pedestrian ERA, his peripherals were outstanding. He struck out 78 batters in 61 2/3 innings and allowed only 5 home runs.
     
    Balazovic massively improved in 2019 with a 2.18 ERA in four starts at Cedar Rapids with 14.4 K/9. It was quickly realized that Balazovic was ready for the next step. He was promoted to Fort Myers and continued his excellence. In 73 innings, Jordy-B struck out 96 batters and allowed just three home runs. Balazovic was an elite strike thrower, walking just 2.4 batters per nine innings.
     
    Balazovic increased his velocity and consistently lived at 95 MPH with his sinker. Balazovic has flashed a plus-slider and at times, a great changeup. With his velocity increasing, his complementary pitches are becoming devastating. Tom Froemming has great analysis here:
     
    The 6 foot 5, 215 pound up-and-comer is developing well-deserved praise and attention. Balazovic is ranked as the 76th overall prospect on MLB Pipeline. Balazovic just turned 21, and figures to start next season in Pensacola at class Double-A. With the developmental system instituted by Derek Falvey and company, Jordy Blaze carries unforeseen upside.
     
    Image Credits:
    Creator:Gordon Donovan
    Credit:Photo: Gordon Donovan
    Copyright:Photo: Gordon Donovan
  3. Like
    brvama reacted to diehardtwinsfan for a blog entry, 2020 Offseason Blueprint   
    Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
     
    There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
     
    So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
    Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
    Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
    Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
    Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
    Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
    Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
    Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
    Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

    That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
     
    I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
     
    Candidates:
    Griffin Jax (protect)
    Luke Raley (protect)
    Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
    Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

    It gets a bit more difficult from here.
    Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
    Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
    Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
    Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
    Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
    Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

    That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
     
    Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
     
    They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
     
    There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
     
    If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
     
    Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
     
    Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
     
    That brings payroll up to 143.
     
    My 26 man roster is now as follows:
    C - Garver
    1B - Cron
    2B - Arraez or Gordon
    3B - Sano
    SS - Polanco
    CF - Buxton
    RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
    DH - Cruz
     
    SP
    Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
     
    RP
    Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
     
    Bench
    Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
     
    I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
     
    So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.
  4. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, The Death of Unwritten Rules   
    As analytics have crept into the game of baseball and taken a foothold as the chief form of evaluation, players from all different eras rail against the game in its current state. The game has definitely changed to cater towards the exceptional athletes that play it today, and the sport has taken notice as well. Unwritten rules have forever (and will always) be part of baseball, but there’s a certain aspect still waiting to be phased out.
     
    The idea that baseball polices itself has long been one that has held weight. As the game has adapted to use slogans like “Let the kids play” and adopted rule changes at bases and the plate, it’s clear there’s an emphasis on keeping these elite athletes on the field of play. With that in mind, it’s beyond time to put an end to the retaliatory pitch.
     
    In last night’s Twins and Rangers game, outfielder Jake Cave swung on a 3-0 pitch and lined a single into the outfield. It was a 13-6 game and in the top of the 9th inning. Cave immediately apologized to pitcher Shawn Kelley upon reaching first base, and he appeared to have lost track of the count. Kelley overlooked the acknowledgement and after going 3-0 to the Max Kepler, plunked him on the arm.
     
    Discussion from the booth, from Roy Smalley and Dick Bremer, immediately turned to that act as retaliation for Cave’s transgression. In a game that Minnesota was blowing out Texas, he had the audacity to swing his bat. Kelley couldn’t find the zone for a second straight batter, and then quit competing to hurl a ball into the arm of the Twins centerfielder. A sport that now has rules in place to protect its players, watched as a pitcher hurled a pitch into a batter, simply because he was upset.
     
    I have no problem with avoidance of the mound, looking presentable on the field, carrying yourself with a level of self-respect, or any number of lesser unwritten rules. I do have an issue with the idea that a pitcher gets to throw a projectile at a batter any time they feel scorned or upset. While wearing a pitch isn’t the end of the world, taking a 90-mph baseball to any part of your body doesn’t feel good, and can certainly open the door to a more substantial injury.
     
    There’s a level of respect shown to an opponent taking one base at a time or giving away pitches in a blowout game. That’s not a necessity though and is something the winning team does to show mercy. Expecting that to be the practice, and then reacting negatively when it doesn’t take place is lunacy. Minnesota wouldn’t have been afforded the good graces of the Rangers simply striking out should they have mounted a 9th inning comeback. Deciding when the game no longer is worth playing in the middle of it is not for any one person to opine. On top of that, this instance stemmed from a guy who clearly stated his intentions and felt bad for what he considered a misstep.
     
    At the end of the day it isn’t that Jake Cave got his teammate Max Kepler hit. That’s what happened, but it was the idiocy of Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley that decided an attempt to injure an opponent was fair response to him failing at his job. The easiest way to avoid having your feelings hurt in defeat is to steer clear of situations where you cause self-embarrassment. Last night the Rangers were an abomination, and then they doubled down on that fact in how they carried out the 9th inning.
     
    Hopefully the Twins find no need to keep the beanball war going tonight, but I certainly hope every dinger that leaves the park ends with a bat flip landing mere feet from the mound and the pitcher that offered it up.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Like
    brvama reacted to Patrick Wozniak for a blog entry, Did the Twins Miss Out On Zac Gallen?   
    During the run-up to the MLB Trade Deadline the Minnesota Twins were linked to several big-name starting pitchers. We heard rumors about the Twins potentially landing someone like Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Madison Bumgarner, or even Trevor Bauer. When the dust settled, Minnesota was either unable or unwilling to meet the demands for those pitchers and decided to stand pat with the current rotation. The Twins were never going to give up a player like Byron Buxton and were rightfully protective of top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirililoff. With that taken into consideration, the Twins may well only have Jose Berrios returning from this year’s rotation for 2020, and they may have missed a golden opportunity to add a talented young pitcher.
     
    The Arizona Diamondbacks received rookie right-hander Zac Gallen from the Miami Marlins in return for Jazz Chisholm, a short stop prospect currently playing in AA. This was a somewhat unique deadline trade as it was a prospect-for-prospect swap (although Gallen made his MLB debut on June 20th and has been up ever since), but the Twins did something similar by swapping Lewin Diaz for Chris Vallimont in the Sergio Romo trade days prior to the Gallen trade. It’s possible that the Marlins were really after Chisholm and contacted Arizona, but the reverse seems more likely. The Twins had just had Miami on the phone and were also playing in Miami at the time of the Gallen trade, so it wouldn’t have been hard to inquire about Gallen.
     
    Gallen has certainly looked the part of a big league pitcher thus far in his MLB career. The Twins got an up-close peak at Gallen during the Marlins series on the day before he was traded, and he did not disappoint against Minnesota’s historic offense (7IP, 4H, 2ER, 8K). He was also great in his first start in Arizona, as he went five innings without allowing any runs and only one hit on 85 pitches while picking up the win.
     
    Gallen has really only recently began to sneak into the top 100 of some of the prospect lists, but his stock has risen significantly this season. He has added velocity to his fastball which now sits closer to the mid-90s with plenty of spin and he has a great change up along with a pretty good cutter. Gallen dominated the PCL with a 1.77 ERA and 33.6 K% this year and has pitched really well so far in the big leagues. The 24-year-old had a 2.72 ERA (3.58 FIP) with 10.65 K/9 in seven starts with the Marlins and is off to a good start in Arizona.
     
    The Marlins seem to be craving high-upside boom-or-bust type prospects and the Twins could have easily provided a similar or somewhat better package than Chisholm. Coming into the season, Chisholm was highly regarded as a short stop possessing both speed and power and he has hit 20 home runs so far this season. He’s a high-upside prospect with great physical tools, but his stock has dropped this year as he has only hit around .200 and is striking out in nearly 35% of his plate appearances. Most prospect rankings still consider him a top 100 prospect, but he fell out of Baseball America’s midseason list.
     
    Although Gallen’s MLB career is only beginning, he would still fit nicely in with Minnesota’s current rotation. In fact, he seemingly would have been a perfect addition to the team because he is pitching well now and would be under team control for many years to come. If the Twins decide not to pick-up Martin Perez’s team option for next season (and the proposition is looking less and less likely) they will need to fill four spots in the rotation. Gallen would have slotted in nicely somewhere behind Berrios and the Twins would have an established young starter along with a promising young arm to build around.
     
    The trade deadline has come and gone, but hopefully the front office took notice of the unique opportunity this trade provided. Arizona was able to pick up a young and promising starter while only giving up one high-risk, high-reward prospect. Of course, most teams are hesitant to give up young MLB-ready pitching, but the Twins would be wise to look into the possibility of making a similar off-season trade.
     
    One team that they may want to look at is…the Miami Marlins. Who knows how much young pitching Miami is willing to part with, but again, they seem to favor high-upside prospects and they are not going to contend in the near future. Although Gallen is out of the picture, the Marlins do have a couple more young pitchers the Twins may want to take a look at in Sandy Alcantara and Jordan Yamamoto.
     
    Of the two, Alcantara throws much harder, touching triple digits and sitting in the high-90s. Alcantara has had his issues so far, struggling with control (11.1% BB) and not getting as many strikeouts (16.8% K) as one would hope, but he would be an intriguing arm for Wes Johnson to work with. He is one of only eight MLB pitches to have a greater than 10% swinging strike rate on three non-fastball pitches (slider, curve, and changeup), so the strikeouts should come. The 23-year-old is a former top-100 prospect.
     
    Yamamoto doesn’t have the velocity or prospect status of Alcantara, but he throws six pitches and has done pretty well in his first stint with the Marlins after being called up from AA. In 54 innings he has pitched to a 4.17 ERA (4.18 FIP) with a 1.04 WHIP and has struck out 55 batters. Yamamota is also just 23 years of age and would presumably cost Minnesota less than Alcantara in terms of prospects.
     
    Even with the addition of one of these young starters, the front office will have their work cut out for them this off season. One would hope that the Twins would add at least two higher quality and more experienced starters through free agency and trade. However, a young, team controlled starter like Alcantara or Yamamota could be a nice depth piece with minor league options that could probably be had for a fairly insignificant price. The Twins have exciting pitching prospects like Brusdar Graterol, Jhoan Duran, Edwar Colina, and Jordan Balazovic all inching closer, but it would be nice to have some additional young pitching talent to help bridge the gap and fill out the rotation.
     
    The Twins made it through the trade deadline without losing any top prospects and the system is loaded with depth. Hopefully Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took heed of the Zac Gallen trade and will be able to identify some young pitching talent and make a similar deal with the Marlins or another organization. Obtaining pitching talent is never easy, but it was something Falvey was known for in Cleveland and the Twins are going to need all the pitching help they can get in 2020.
  6. Like
    brvama reacted to Heezy1323 for a blog entry, Biceps Tendinitis Q&A   
    Biceps Tendinitis in Pitchers Q&A
    Heezy1323
     
     
    A request was made by a poster for me to write a blog covering biceps tendinitis. This is actually a fairly complicated topic with quite a bit of controversy, but I’ll do my best to share some basic info that hopefully TD peeps will find interesting. There are some technical parts, so apologies for that, but I do think a basic understanding of the anatomy is helpful.
     
    Question 1: What is the biceps, exactly?
     
    The biceps is a muscle that we are likely all familiar with, lying in the front of the upper arm and used to perform curls and similar exercises. The word ‘biceps’ has a Latin origin meaning ‘two heads’. This describes the upper (or proximal) end of the biceps where there are two tendon attachments.
     
    The first is the long head of the biceps which attaches to the labrum at the top of the socket in the shoulder. It then curves over the top of the ball (humeral head) where it exits the shoulder joint and begins its course down the front of the upper arm bone (humerus). At the front of the shoulder joint, it travels through what is called the ‘bicipital groove’ which is an area of the bone of the humerus between two bumps (called tuberosities). This groove is often the site of issues in pitchers (more on this below).
     


     
    The second is the short head of the biceps, which originates from a bony projection off the shoulder blade in the front of your shoulder called the coracoid. It travels straight from here to meet up with the long head of the biceps in the upper 1/3 of the arm. There, the tendons join and form the biceps muscle.
     
     
    Below this (distally), the muscle turns back into a tendon just above the elbow and a single tendon then travels down to one of the bones of your forearm (called the radius) where it attaches at a bony prominence called the radial tuberosity.


     
    Question 2: How is this tendon involved in throwing?
     
    This is a great question, and a subject of much debate amongst experts. The short head of the biceps likely has a relatively insignificant role in throwing. The long head (which is the one that attaches inside the shoulder joint) is much more involved in the throwing motion. When throwing at MLB speeds, the shoulder rotates at 7000 degrees per second, which is the fastest known human motion. One can imagine the stress this places on the structures that surround the shoulder.
     
    Without delving into the weeds too much, it seems as though the biceps has a role in position sense of the shoulder during throwing, likely a role in stability of the shoulder joint and also helps slow down the arm after ball release.
     
    At the other end of the tendon (distal), the elbow changes rapidly from a bent position to a straight position as the ball is released during a throw. In order to keep the bones of the elbow from jamming into each other at a high speed, the biceps muscle fires to slow down this elbow straightening (what we call an eccentric contraction). This allows some of the force of throwing to be dissipated by the muscle (kind of like a shock absorber).
    If it seems like that is a lot of jobs for a small tendon/muscle- it’s because it is…
     
    Question 3: What happens when someone gets biceps tendinitis?
     
    Tendinitis is a fairly broad term and can mean a number of different things depending on the context. With respect to the biceps, a thrower can develop issues at either the upper (proximal) or lower (distal) end of the biceps. The suffix -itis means inflammation, so the general thought is that there is inflammation that develops in or around the tendon.
     
    The reasons ‘why’ are heavily debated, but generally there is probably some combination of overuse/fatigue and altered mechanics or muscle imbalances that contribute. It takes a tremendous amount of efficiency of motion and coordination of muscle movements to throw a baseball in excess of 90mph, and any small abnormality can easily be compounded by the sheer number of repetitions and intensity of a typical pitcher. Over time, this can add up to cause damage to the tendon and result in inflammation and pain.
     
    Arthroscopic image of normal biceps tendon (left) and inflamed biceps (right)


     
    Question 4: How does the player/medical staff separate this injury from other issues that can seem very similar?
     
    This can be VERY difficult. Often the player will have pain at the front of the shoulder (in cases of proximal biceps tendinitis) or just above the elbow (in distal cases). A thorough history and exam is performed in order to hone in on the likely problem area.
     
    An MRI is ordered in some cases. One of the challenges with this type of issue is that in many cases, an MRI of a pitcher already has some abnormalities on it which are likely adaptive and have been present for a long time (and are not the actual cause of pain). In addition, in many cases the inflammation around the bicep isn’t something that can be clearly seen on MRI. So interpreting imaging studies can be a significant challenge.
     
    Usually the exam is (in my experience) the most helpful thing in recognizing biceps tendinitis when it is present. The athlete is usually tender right in the area of the tendon, which is a helpful finding.
     
    Question 5: Once a pitcher is diagnosed with biceps tendinitis, how are they treated?
     
    Again, there are a lot of variables here. But presuming it is significant enough to affect the performance of the pitcher, they would typically be shut down for a period of time to prevent worsening of the condition. Anti-inflammatory medication may be used. In some cases, injections of cortisone are used to try and decrease the inflammation.
     
    With the recent increases in the use of technology, video may be consulted to see if there have been subtle mechanical changes which may have contributed to the issue. Muscle strength can also be tested in various areas around the shoulder to see if weakness is contributing.
     
    In essentially all cases, a rehab program will begin that is likely to include strength and flexibility components. When the pain has subsided, a return to throwing program is begun and once complete, the athlete can return to play.
    A group out of Mayo Clinic (led by Dr. Chris Camp) recently did a study of pro baseball players (minor and major league) and causes of injury over a several year period. Tendinitis of the proximal biceps was actually the #4 cause of injury with an average return to play time of about 22 days.
     
    Question 6: Is surgery ever needed?
     
    It is quite uncommon for surgery to be needed for this issue. In fact, in Dr. Camp’s study above surgery was only required in 3% of cases of proximal biceps tendinitis. So clearly most of these cases improve with non-surgical treatment. In addition, surgery for this particular issue has a fairly poor track record and is avoided if at all possible.
     
    Question 7: What can be done to prevent biceps tendinitis?
     
    Great question, reader. If I knew the answer, we could likely both be millionaires given how common this injury is and the dollar figures involved when a high-priced starter or reliever is on the shelf for this reason.
     
    Generally, I believe monitoring the workload of pitchers through the season, doing what you can to ensure they maintain a good off-season program and having a good line of communication with the players are all important. As video analysis and other analytic measures become more popular, my hope is that they can be incorporated into injury prevention as well.
     
    Thanks for humoring me on this complex topic. Please feel free to add a request for a future subject in the comments. GO TWINS!!
  7. Like
    brvama reacted to Brandon Warne for a blog entry, Twins Clubhouse Reacts to Escobar's Homer off Dozier on Saturday Night   
    This is an excerpt of an article originating at Zone Coverage. Click here to read it in full.
     
    On the surface, it was just a home run. In a year where 4,588 of them have been hit already, that hardly seems like
    a real headline-grabber.
     
    MLB hitters have been hitting home runs at a rate of 1.39 per game -- by far the most in a season in history. It's not even really close; the 2017 season ranks second at 1.27 long balls per nine, and no other season is over 1.20.
     
    The homer also came late in a game that ended 18-7. That type of score is more commonplace in today's game with balls flying out of the park at an unprecedented rate.
     
    Also more commonplace in today's game is position players pitching, and in this case, it was a position player serving up the hitter's second home run of the game.
     
    Alright, that's enough of that cryptic business.
     
    The home run was in Phoenix, and it came off the bat of Eduardo Escobar.
     
    That pitch was thrown by perhaps his best friend in all of baseball -- Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier. If Dozier isn't his closest friend in the game, it's possible the guy catching is -- Nationals backstop Kurt Suzuki.
     
    So when Dozier -- a right-handed thrower -- attempted to sneak a 69 mph floater past Escobar -- a switch hitter batting from the right side -- the Diamondbacks' jack-of-all-trades crushed it into oblivion, well into the left-field seats.
     
    All three guys did a fairly good job of letting the moment play itself out, until Escobar did his customary home run celebration after rounding third.
     
    That's when Suzuki had to get involved, as he playfully told Escobar to get back into the dugout while Dozier simply smiled as he watched his former teammate round the bases.
     
    The trio was like mismatched socks -- a Hawaiian, a Mississippi boy and a guy from Venezuela -- who drew glee during their Twins days from bouncing around each other like said socks in a dryer.
  8. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Twins Show Poise in Winning Deadline   
    For weeks we’ve heard talk of the big names. Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and Noah Syndergaard were all assets expected to be moved at the July 31 trade deadline. Because the Minnesota Twins are one of the best teams in baseball they were consistently linked to the best gets, and so too were every other major market. In the end, that trio went nowhere, but it’s in how Minnesota executed on their moves that makes the maneuvering something to get behind.
     
    Without hammering out more thoughts on Sergio Romo, it’s hard to see that move as anything but a come up. I already wrote about the move when it happened over the weekend, but they turned a guy who was going to be lost during the Rule 5 draft into a strong reliever and an equal or better prospect. Knowing the goal was relief help, Derek Falvey struck early on the former Marlins close.
     
    As the deadline neared on Tuesday afternoon, apprehension began to set in. Hours faded away, they turned into minutes, and the 3pm CT mark came and went. Then there was a tweet Darren Wolfson sent simply saying, “Stay tuned.” As long as deals are finalized with the league office prior to the cutoff, they go through. Having not yet been reported, Minnesota was in fact making a move.
     
    All along it was thought that Smith was the San Francisco Giants reliever on his way out of town. Stringing together some victories of late however, Bruce Bochy’s club is going to make one more run and held onto their top starter and reliever. In doing this, Falvey likely pivoted to what can be argued as a better get.
     
    Sam Dyson is a 31-year-old reliever with closing experience. Having familiarity with Thad Levine from his Texas days, Dyson closed out 38 games for the Rangers in 2016. This year he’s posted a 2.47 ERA 2.74 FIP 8.3 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. He doesn’t still throw upper 90’s like earlier in his career, but he sits in the middle and doesn’t give up free bases. Under team control through next season as well, this move plays into the future.
     

     
    Going into the deadline I opined that the Twins could do no worse than two relievers with a starter pushing someone to the bullpen as gravy. None of the big relief names moved and Dyson represents the best arm to switch teams. Outside of Chris Martin, who is an impending free agent, Romo likely comes in above the rest as well.
     
    If you find yourself disappointed that the likes of Thor, MadBum, or Greinke won’t be in the home dugout any time soon I’d like to offer some perspective. First and foremost, neither of the first two players switched teams. The Mets asked for the most important player on the Twins roster in the middle of a season, while the Giants we’re holding a big name with declining performance back for a king’s ransom.
     
    Houston did well to land Greinke, and coming in after the buzzer he certainly provided the big bang to end the day. The former Diamondbacks starter would’ve been an ideal candidate for Minnesota as adding salary is certainly an avenue they could’ve went down. He would’ve helped to solidify the rotation and also is under contract. He is 35-years-old though, and most importantly had a full no-trade clause. It was his choice where he went, and that wasn’t here.
     
    Almost as what the Twins got at the deadline is what they held onto. With the big names floated for weeks, so two were prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, and Trevor Larnach. Falvey added talent in the most necessary part of the roster without giving up a single top 20 prospect. Lewin Diaz was the highest ceiling moved, and he was unquestionably buried behind some better depth. Jaylin Davis is having an incredible 2019, but it’s come out of nowhere and again is in an area of depth.
     
    You want to see a team start to push chips in when a window opens, but you must be certain that it isn’t just cracked. The Astros have made waves the last two seasons now in the midst of a third straight 100 win campaign. The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres in a final piece World Series move after winning 97 games the year prior, and are now looking at a fifth straight 90 win campaign. Those types of moves are risky but were beyond substantiated.
     
    Minnesota should win 100 games this year but it comes on the heels of a losing season. This core looks the part of a team that should be a Postseason and World Series contender for at least the next five seasons. They have no less than 15 players that are impact talent and will be 32-years-old or under four years from now. Rocco Baldelli’s 25-man roster is good enough right now to beat anyone in the Postseason. In 2020 and beyond, some of the additional depth can be turned into more talent, as the opportunity stays present.
     
    To summarize the past few weeks that led up to a frenzied couple of hours today, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine showed poised perfection in how they handled talent acquisition. The big league club got substantially better. The farm system did not get any worse. Sustained winning is still a probable outcome and the team from Twins Territory is as dangerous as it’s ever been.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Yankees Enter and No Twins Care, Literally None   
    Every single time the New York Yankees square off against the Minnesota Twins you hear the statistics. Minnesota has been dominated by the Evil Empire. Ron Gardenhire’s division winning teams consistently found their season cut short by Yankees lineups. Whether at Target Field or the Metrodome, Twins fans have long looked at these series and circled them to highlight impending doom. Now leading the AL Central, I can all but assure you that when the Yankees filter into the opposing dugout this evening the number of Twins players caring about historical relevance will be zero.
     
    Two years ago, a Paul Molitor Twins squad popped up out of nowhere to win 85 games. Not much was expected from that group and grabbing the Wild Card spot was a surprise to plenty within the organization. Jumping out to a 3-0 lead after their first at bats the Twins quickly gave back the runs only for the dust to settle with an 8-4 defeat. That starting lineup included just four regular starters from this current squad. The leadoff batter moved to the National League while the number two batter has retired to his couch.
     
    It’s in the turnover that this discussion of history really goes to die.
     
    Rocco Baldelli currently manages a very good Minnesota Twins squad. They lead the majors in longballs, have pitched above their heads for over half the season, and even with a slight downtick in production, employ the third best offense in the sport. All those things are factually true right now, today. C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, and Marwin Gonzalez have never faced the Yankees in a Twins uniform. Each of those players are directly responsible for the great season Minnesota is having and that impact will be felt much more than the numbers Justin Morneau or Michael Cuddyer compiled against New York.
     
    If there’s a significance in this series, it’s that the two teams are good and playing against good opponents should provide somewhat of a measuring stick for a club. The Yankees have taken over the title of best record in the American League and having won five of their last six contests. Aaron Boone’s team hasn’t been on the road since the All-Star Break, but they do own a solid 26-17 record away from Yankees Stadium. Minnesota is an even 30-19 both at home and away, but having dropped the series 1-2 in the Bronx, will look to at least end the season total with a split.
     
    There’s also a get right opportunity here for the Twins in that the Yankees employ just the 13th ranked starting unit in baseball. New York has scheduled two lefties in the matchup and that plays into the hands of the righty bombers for the Twins. Producing a full run less per game over the past couple of months, favorable pitching matchups should be something this group salivates over.
     
    At the end of the day this series is a big one for both clubs. Each of these teams is looking to improve their positioning for the stretch run, and they’ll be looking to notch quality wins against quality competition. Call the Twins and underdog if you’d like, but no one on either side of this matchup is worried about what has taken place in previous years. Minnesota has tracked towards one of the best teams in organization history, and while that’s uncharted waters on its own, so is the writing of their story against the club leading the AL East.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Like
    brvama reacted to Andrew Gebo for a blog entry, First Place Underdogs   
    Across all sports the term “underdog” is typically given to teams who lack elite talent but are good enough to be relevant. It is rare when a team leads their respective sport in most major statistical categories and fighting for the number one seed in the postseason to be given the “underdog” label. The 2019 Minnesota Twins are the exception to that rule.
     
    As a fan, it is very easy and understandable to be blinded by emotion when talking about your favorite team. We all think our favorite team is the best - unless you’re a Marlins or Orioles fan but then you wouldn't be reading this anyway. Fans also tend to overreact to minor mishaps or punch a hole in the wall when their team doesn’t commit $45million over three years to a 31 year old reliever with declining peripherals.
     
    This article will not be an emotionally driven rant about media biases and the Twins not getting respect because they’re a small market team. Rather, my goal is to present an objective analysis of how absurd it is that this team is already an “underdog” to make a deep postseason run.
     
    Let’s first look at the current playoff odds of AL division leaders, provided by FanGraphs.
     
    Houston Astros: (42-21), 99.9% chance of a postseason appearance, 20.1% chance of winning the World Series.
    Minnesota Twins: (40-20), 96.5% chance of a postseason appearance, 7.7% chance of winning the World Series.
    New York Yankees: (38-22), 95% chance of a postseason appearance, 12% chance of winning the World Series.
     
    Now let’s compare how these teams have performed so far in terms of offense and pitching, beginning with offense. It’s no secret the Twins have crushed the ball this year and you may not be surprised to see them at the top of the AL, but here it is anyway.
     
    Minnesota Twins: .272/.339/.510 .850 OPS, 114 HR, 14.7 WAR
    Houston Astros: .271/.344/.478 .822 OPS, 100 HR, 14.5 WAR
    New York Yankees: .257/.334/.448 .781 OPS, 97 HR, 8.7 WAR
     
    You probably didn’t need me to tell you how good their offense has been. If you follow this team then you should (hopefully) already know that. There you have it though, of the current AL division leaders, the Minnesota Twins are the best offensive team. Now let’s look at pitching, beginning with starting pitching.
     
    Minnesota Twins: 3.56 ERA, 1.28 HR/9, 1.16 WHIP
    Houston Astros: 3.68 ERA, 1.55 HR/9, 1.06 WHIP
    New York Yankees: 3.89 ERA, 1.65 HR/9, 1.22 WHIP
     
    Let that sink in for a second - the Minnesota Twins not only have the best offense but one of the best starting rotations as well. Bullpen stats aren’t as favorable but they’re also not as bad as most people in Twins territory seem to believe.
     
    Minnesota Twins: 4.67 ERA, 1.26 HR/9, 1.41 WHIP
    Houston Astros: 3.32 ERA, 1.18 HR/9, 1.12 WHIP
    New York Yankees: 3.74 ERA, 1.04 HR/9, 1.26WHIP
     
    If you’re reading this then you likely follow baseball. If you follow baseball you likely already knew the Yankees have a great bullpen and the Astros turned Ryan Pressly into a super reliever - it’s okay to be sad about that one Twins fans, I’ll allow it. However, the Twins bullpen has been respectable and Taylor Rogers is emerging as a super reliever.
     
    Let’s recap - of the three current AL division leaders, the Twins have the lowest odds of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs. Minnesota also currently boasts the best offensive production among AL division leaders and their starting rotation has the lowest ERA and has surrendered the least amount of home runs per 9 innings. Also, if the season ended today, Jake Odorizzi is the AL Cy Young winner.
     
    Their bullpen has been good but not great and ranks last among current AL division leaders but they’ve still gotten solid production from the bullpen. 10th best bullpen ERA in the league type of production - which by the way, is pretty darn good.
     
    Here’s a quick look at how they stack up against all of MLB in pitching and hitting. Minnesota currently leads the league in the following offensive categories: AVG, SLG, OPS, and wOBA. They’re tied for first in wRC+ and HR. Minnesota has been an offensive juggernaut.
     
    FanGraphs currently has the Twins ranked as the 4th best starting rotation in the league. They don’t lead the league in any statistical categories other than Wins - which for the most part is a useless stat when evaluating a pitchers individual performance - but their overall starting pitching production has been very strong. Any time you can rank in the top 5 of the league you’re doing something right - thank you, Wes Johnson.
     
    Minnesota’s bullpen currently ranks 11th in the league, according to FanGraphs. Top 10 would sound a lot better but 11th is still pretty good. Considering the bullpen expectations were extremely low going into the season, being the 11th best bullpen in the league is a pleasant surprise.
     
    If you have read this far you’ve hopefully learned or confirmed your own beliefs that the 2019 Twins are an offensive powerhouse with a top 5 starting rotation and a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league - Go Twins!
     
    Yet for some reason, of the current AL division leaders they have the lowest odds to win the World Series (only 7.7% if you can’t remember that far back). Chris Russo of MLB Network thinks Minnesota is a “regular season team that isn’t built for the postseason”. He’s not alone in that sentiment, either.
     
    Most of the publications I have read and TV analysts I’ve listened to seem to echo the same feelings. They don’t believe the 2019 Minnesota Twins are legitimate World Series contenders and it’s shocking.
     
    Most of the time when a team is this good they are a consensus World Series favorite - except that doesn’t seem to apply to the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Maybe it’s because the roster lacks household names. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, C.J. Cron and Mitch Garver aren’t going to be on the cover of Sport Illustrated anytime soon. The Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees (when healthy) feature a lineup full of MVP winners, All Stars and future HOFers. This could be why the Twins are overlooked but that’s an idiotic reason.
     
    Perhaps it’s because Minnesota has been relatively irrelevant since 2010 - other than the brief postseason cameo in 2017. The Tigers, Royals, White Sox and Indians have all appeared in or won a World Series over the last two decades. The Twins, on the other hand, haven’t reached the ALCS since they were defeated by Anaheim in 2002. Maybe everyone forgot about Minnesota and now that they’re a juggernaut they don’t believe it, but again, that’s idiotic.
     
    Could it be because they don’t believe their current production is sustainable? This would be the least-idiotic reason to doubt this team. Jake Odorizzi has been a good but not great pitcher over his career. Now suddenly he’s a front runner for the AL Cy Young. Byron Buxton is putting together his best season as a pro, Jorge Polanco is an MVP candidate and up until his last couple starts, Martin Perez has been a completely different pitcher.
     
    As I write this on June 6th, the Minnesota Twins currently have five position players with a top 10 WAR for their respective positions. Those five are Polanco, Schoop, Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario. Top 10 doesn’t do enough justice for Jorge Polanco, he has the highest WAR of all shortstops and the 9th highest WAR in the entire league. He’s on pace to win a batting title and possibly the MVP.
     
    Minnesota is also one of only three teams in the league with two starting pitchers who rank top 20 in ERA - Jake Odorizzi (2nd) and Jose Berrios (20th).
     
    It is very possible that this level of production from relatively unproven players is not sustainable but even that is a bit of a stretch. Byron Buxton was the number one prospect in baseball, so seeing him produce like this isn’t outrageous. Jorge Polanco has always been able to hit and he’s just now entering his prime at age 25. It’s not uncommon for players to have a breakout season after having spent parts of five years in the big leagues and over 1,000 career plate appearances. Jake Odorizzi and Martin Perez, however, are performing significantly better than they have over their careers which does make it harder to believe it is sustainable.
     
    The 2019 Minnesota Twins are a legitimate championship contender. By no means am I saying they’re a lock for the World Series and will cruise through the postseason. It’s very possible they get bounced in the ALDS. It’s baseball, anything can happen but this is a very good baseball team that deserves more respect and should not be viewed a consensus underdog.
     
    Thank you for reading! If you’d like more Twins news and articles follow me on Twitter @Gebo__
  11. Like
    brvama reacted to Tom Froemming for a blog entry, Why I'm Out On Craig Kimbrel   
    Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
     
    I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
     
    My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
     
    I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
     
    But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
     
    -He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
     
    -He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
     
    -His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
     
    -It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
     
    -His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
     
    -His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
     
    -He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
     
    -He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
     
    -He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
     
    In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
     
    If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.
  12. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Twins Searching the Cupboard for Arms   
    Coming into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, relief pitching was a very serious question mark. For the most part, the guys Minnesota’s front office has told us to trust in have looked the part. Ryne Harper has been a great story, and Matt Magill has flashed solid stuff. The back end of Taylor Rogers, Blake Parker, and Trevor May work. Unfortunately, that’s where things end.
     
    There’s been a revolving door at the bottom of Minnesota’s bullpen, and the options to call upon are dwindling. Fernando Romero has been up multiple times, without seeing any significant success. He’s been knocked around at Triple-A, and despite great stuff, the transition to relief hasn’t gone smoothly. We’ve seen Tyler Duffey a few times, and despite dominating Triple-A, the beautiful bender has yet to see solid run in the big leagues.
     
    Rocco Baldelli has been given lefty Andrew Vasquez, and former starter Adalberto Mejia looks to have flamed out. Addison Reed was on a path back through a surprise rehab stint, but he’s been hit around the park for Rochester. The only other 40-man option is lefty Gabriel Moya, who has also been bad since returning to Triple-A and hasn’t ever shown a significant level of success at the big-league level.
     
    Non-40-man options are also a difficult ask at this point. Jake Reed was going well for Rochester but has hit the skids. D.J. Baxendale and Ryan Eades have gaudy ERA numbers and are allowing far too much contact. Beyond that, you’d need to dip another level down and be relatively convinced that the big jump would be warranted.
    The good news is that the Twins are 27-15 while looking in command of the AL Central. The bad news is that Trevor Hildenberger nearly surrendered a four-run lead, and Mike Morin was called upon to face both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in massive spots today. If that development alone doesn’t call for some action, I don’t know what does.
     
    Craig Kimbrel still is unsigned and can be acquired for nothing more than cash. Yes, at this point you’d need to part with a draft pick to sign him. Waiting until after the draft could be smart, but the number of teams willing to bring him in without pick compensation being thwarted likely rises in number as well. On the trade front, there’s more than a handful of bad teams that can part will relievers. Typically deals are consummated in late June at the earlier. Though the asset capital may be higher when looking to acquire talent earlier in the year, it’s worth weighing what the immediate and extra impact would be should they get into Wes Johnson’s hands sooner.
     
    At the end of the day it boils down to the simple principle that the Minnesota Twins have opportunity in front of them. Given their trajectory and roster construction, this isn’t a team that should be playing for 2020. You don’t need to mortgage the farm for a one-year run but capitalizing in years where you can make noise is a must. Right now, the greatest deficiency this group has is its bullpen. Although the collective has held strong, it’s been on the back of a small inner group that is going to be burned through come summer.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Like
    brvama reacted to Supfin99 for a blog entry, Seriously, how bad is that lineup?   
    Talking about the Indians. When I looked at the opening lineup card I actually thought it was a post from a spring training game. That lineup is putrid. The great thing is the only person they are really missing is Lindor. Lindor is fantastic but he can’t make up for the rest of the poopoo platter that the Indians are going to trot out there on a daily basis. The Indians are going to be great at 2 spots with Lindor and Ramires and average at another with Santana. There is a good chance they will be below average to bad at the rest of the spots in the order. Even with that rotation, it’s hard to win every game 2-1. I wrote about this earlier in the spring, what happens if Lindor or Ramirez miss time or just simply aren’t as great as they’ve been the last 3 years? Then this lineup becomes one of the worst in baseball which is what we saw yesterday. Seriously Tyler Naquin batting 3rd? He wouldn’t even make the Twins roster. Lindor now has to wait for his ankle to heal then basically start spring training over again. He may miss the entire month of April. This division is absolutely for the taking. This isn’t an over reaction to 1 game. And don’t tell me they were missing Jason Kipnis also. Kipnis has been below average for 2 years.
  14. Like
    brvama reacted to Steven Buhr for a blog entry, Minor League Pay - Some Progress At Last?   
    When the Cedar Rapids Kernels host the Lansing Lugnuts in a three-game series beginning July 13 of this summer, Lugnuts players will have one significant advantage over their counterparts in the home team dugout.
     
    They’ll be getting paid more than 50% more than the Kernels players.
     
    http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/baseballMoney900.jpg
    It doesn’t mean the Jays’ farm hands necessarily win every contest against the Kernels on the field, nor will they be swimming in riches on their paydays, certainly, but it’s a baby step in the right direction and players in every organization can only hope it’s a trend that spreads across affiliated minor league baseball.
     
    According to a story by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Emily Waldon, Blue Jays executives told The Athletic that they are finalizing a plan to raise their minor leaguers’ pay by more than 50 percent across all levels from the Dominican Summer League through Triple A.
     
    (The Athletic site has a paywall, but if there’s a single site that deserves your consideration for subscribing, it’s the Athletic, in my opinion.)
     
    According to that article, Class A minimum salaries are rising from $1,100 to $1,160 per month this season, so players for Lansing, the Blue Jays’ Midwest League affiliate, will be north of $1,740, about $600 a month more than the Minnesota Twins are obligated to pay players assigned to Cedar Rapids.
     
    Toronto vice president of baseball operations Ben Cherrington told The Athletic, “We hope that it allows our players to have the freedom and comfort to make some good choices, whether it’s where to live, where to eat, etc. We just feel like it’s consistent with our values of trying to be a player-centered organization and give them every resource possible to be at their best.”
     
    We could debate whether $1,740 a month is enough money to provide much “freedom and comfort” but there’s no doubt it’s provides more of those things than $1,160 does.
     
    Minor leaguers are not paid while attending spring training and extended spring training (MLB claims these are merely extended “try-outs”), receiving their meager pay only once assigned to an active minor league team’s roster.
     
    A raise similar to what Toronto is offering would certainly benefit the Twins’ players in Cedar Rapids where players already benefit from a healthy and generous host-family program, which allows players to re-allocate money that would otherwise go toward rent.
     
    Toronto’s move coincidentally (perhaps) came about roughly the same time that Waldon authored another article for which she interviewed over 30 people, many of them minor league players, concerning the plight of players trying to subsist on minor league pay.
     
    The big question, now, is whether Toronto’s unilateral first volley on minor league pay will be answered by other MLB teams.
     
    Certainly, there are 25 guys getting ready to fly to Cedar Rapids in April that hope so.
  15. Like
    brvama reacted to dave_dw for a blog entry, Who Will Be the Twins Opening Day Starter?   
    UPDATE (March 4): Jose Berrios has been named the Twins 2019 Opening Day starter
     
     
    The “Opening Day starter” distinction means more than it matters.
     
    It is an honor given to a team’s best or longest-tenured starting pitcher, and it is treated by players and managers as just that: an honor.
     
    Whether a pitcher starts on Opening Day or in the second game of the season doesn't matter much when it comes to the team's record over a 162-game season, and yet we see a barrage of press releases and quotes during spring training announcing who will take the mound first for each team.
     
    At this point, the Twins haven’t announced their Opening Day starter for 2019, but the proclamation will likely come in the next few weeks. That said, there seems to be two front-runners for the job: Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson.
     
    While Jake Odorizzi was the Opening Day starter in 2018, he only pitched 164 1/3 innings and posted a 4.49 ERA on the season. Berrios and Gibson, on the other hand (or "on same hand" since they're all righties), both threw 190+ innings and had an ERA in the 3.00s.
     
    Of the two, Gibson had the better ERA at 3.62, threw a few more innings, and is projected by Steamer to lead the team in ERA again in 2019. He is the longest-tenured player on the Twins roster as he enters his seventh season pitching for Minnesota, and was also ahead of Berrios in the rotation last year, pitching in second game of the season after Odorizzi’s opening start.
     
    Berrios had the edge in the peripheral stats with mores strikeouts and fewer walks than Gibson. His 3.84 ERA was not far behind his teammate, and he was the only Twins player selected to the All-Star game last year. He is projected by PECOTA to be the best pitcher on the Twins’ staff in 2019 and has the edge in “stuff” and future upside. If there's a true ace on this staff, it will likely be him.
     
    Michael Pineda and Martin Perez round out the rotation. They have yet to throw a pitch for the Twins and have been either hurt or bad in recent years. They don’t expect to be in the conversation for Opening Day starter.
     
    Adding a wrinkle into the discussion is Rocco Baldelli and the Twins late-season experiment using an Opener in 2018. The decision to implement this strategy last September was agreed upon by the front office and former manager Paul Molitor. However, with Molitor’s depature and the addition of Baldelli—who hails from the Tampa Bay Rays organization which introduced and heavily used the Opener last year—there are reasons to believe that the Twins will more aggressive with this strategy in 2019.
     
    That said, the Twins continued to allow Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi to start without being preceded by an Opener last fall. Likewise, the Rays allowed their better starter pitchers Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to start their games without an opening act. Beginning the season with an Opener seems unlikely unless this coaching staff really wants to make a splash right out of the gate.
     
    Time (and probably the Twins in the next weeks) will tell who will be taking the mound at Target Field on March 28 to face the Cleveland Indians, and their name will be jotted down in Twins history. Even if it doesn’t really matter who gets the start, it certainly means something.
     
     
    Here are some tidbits about Opening Day starters in Minnesota Twins’ history:
    Since officially becoming the Minnesota Twins in 1961 (after moving from the District of Columbia), there have been 58 Opening Days. A total of 31 different pitchers made Opening Day starts for the Twins.
    ---
    Brad Radke leads the pack with nine Opening Day starts followed by Bert Blyleven’s six starts and four for Frank Viola. Dave Goltz tallied three starts on Opening Day while nine other pitchers had two starts apiece.
    ---
    The best Twins Opening Day start, using Bill James’ Game Score, was Dean Chance. He threw a complete game shutout in 1968 against the Washington Senators (the team that filled in the void after the Twins moved to Minnesota). Chance struck out eight batters, walked none, and allowed four hits in the contest.
    ---
    The worst performance by the same metric came in Brad Havens’ lone Opening Day start for the Twins which took place in the Metrodome in 1983. Havens was ousted after recording just four outs. He gave up eight runs, all earned, against an impressive Detroit Tigers team that went on to win 92 games that season. His brutal outing began: single, single, home run, walk, wild pitch, walk. The Tigers went on to score six runs in the first inning.
    ---
    Kevin Tapani, however, proved to be the worst Opening Day starter in the aggregate, as he posted a 19.29 ERA over two starts in 1993 and 1994. In the two games, he totaled seven innings, recorded just three strikeouts, and gave up a massive 15 earned runs on 18 hits. Those starts were the second- and third-worst Opening Day starts in Twins history by Game Score.
    ---
    There were only five Opening Days hosted at Metropolitan Stadium. Mudcat Grant had the best start of the bunch allowing one run in a complete game against the Kansas City Athletics. The worst Opening Day performance at the Met belongs to Jim Perry in which he allowed three earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work in his 1971 start.
    ---
    Radke started five of the 15 Opening Day games played in the Metrodome and had the best start under the inflated roof by Game Score. In 1996, Radke struck out eight Detroit Tigers in six innings while allowing just one earned run as the Twins (with newly-signed Paul Molitor) beat the Tigers 8-6.
    ---
    Target Field has hosted just two Opening Days since it’s inaugural season. In 2013, Vance Worley braved the 35º weather and limited the then-very-good Tigers to three runs over six innings. He held Miguel Cabrera hitless, but took the loss as the Twins fell 4-2. In 2017, the Twins defeated the Royals behind seven strong innings of one-run ball from Ervin Santana.

    The Twins will host their third ever Opening Day at Target Field as they take on the Cleveland Indians on March 28th.
  16. Like
    brvama reacted to Matt Braun for a blog entry, The Strange Relationship Between Fans and How Much Money Is Spent On Players   
    We, as fans, have an interesting relationship between the franchises we support and ourselves. The bottom line of why we support these teams is usually because we enjoy doing so (although it seems like some Twins “fans” on Twitter don’t enjoy anything that has to do with them, but that’s another story). And this vested interest in the team leads us to want our franchise to acquire the best talent available in order to possibly win the championship at the end of the season. But, there are parameters set up by the team that we also must accept in the form of payroll. We understand the limitations which are laid out to us and then theorize events that can occur within them because our teams have shown us what the limits are. In MLB, not all franchise is created equal as there are consistent patterns of spending among the teams which split them up into either “big markets” who can land the big free agents and “small markets” who have to settle for less.
     
    Now, let me get one thing clear, I am not whining about if this system is unfair as I personally believe it really is not much of a problem. Nor am I damning the teams such as the Twins who operate under stricter rules than others because I also understand that payroll is correlated to profit and this is a business after all. Teams who spend more generally have a better chance of making the playoffs but there is little to no correlation between spending and actually winning the championship. To put it simply, it’s pretty much just dumb blind luck whether or not a team wins the World Series once they make the playoffs. No, instead I want to comment on the fascinating position fans find themselves in when it comes to theorizing roster moves and creating scenarios in their mind with a certain limit that they must consider.
     
    It’s easy for us to disconnect ourselves from the money that the players we root for are making, we don’t see the total in terms of “how much is that player making” as much as we see it in “how will how much that player is making affect the teams ability to make moves”. We squabble over how many millions can we reasonably offer to a free agent along with coming to terms with the fact that teams will keep MLB ready prospects down in the minors in order to keep them around for cheaper for longer. Hell, we just saw this happen with Byron Buxton when the Twins didn’t call him up when rosters expanded party because it would give the Twins an extra year of team control. Of course, the decision required more nuance than that, but the end result was that Buxton will now be stifled in the amount of money he will be making in the future because of the limits set up the team. In a perfect world, he would have been called up in September because it would not matter that the Twins would be forced to pay him more money sooner because it would not be an issue to do so, they could offer him whatever 6 year contract he pleased and both sides would go frolic in a garden somewhere, but that isn’t the baseball world we live in.
     
    I rationalized this decision, like most others did, with the reasoning I laid out before, but in doing so I sided with the team and owner who is worth billions of dollars instead of the player worth a fraction of a fraction of that. And now, that doesn’t sit right with me. Along with this, I think of the numerous players who were non-tendered because their arbitration totals were probably going to be higher than how much their teams thought they were worth and those players were cut to save a few bucks. This would be fine if the teams spent more on free agents in return but this hasn’t been the case for a lot of teams as it seems some franchises aren’t aware that they are allowed to sign players right now. There’s also that statement that follows every question about whether a team should sign a player: “sure, as long as he’s cheap”.
     
    The easy response is that these players, while worth way less than their owners, will still end up making far more money than any of us will and it becomes hard to feel bad for a player who ends up making only 3 million dollars instead of 4 million dollars because the difference is negligible for us. But again, we’re looking at their salary from the point of view of someone who has a vested interest in them making as little money as possible in order for our favorite team to have more flexibility for future acquisitions.
     
    At the end of the day, should teams really be this concerned with cutting miniscule costs in the name of efficiency? Should how much money C.J. Cron is making affect whether or not the Rays DFA him? And should we be infuriated when Andrew McCutchen signs for 5 million dollars more than we think he’s worth? I don’t believe so, but hey, it isn’t my money.
  17. Like
    brvama reacted to mikelink45 for a blog entry, Do we need an Ace, do we need Harper, Machado?   
    Bear with me now - I am about to go off the baseball rails here. I read all the speculation, all the projections of player salaries and all the moaning from our team and fans and the rest of the teams and their fans so I am going to say something no one wants to hear. We do not need an Ace, we do not need a superstar! There it has been said. The follow up to that is - and I want us to win the series!
     
    Okay, now for my reasons. Lets start with the easiest - the Ace. The Ace in the 1800s pitched much more than any current pitcher. Old Hoss Radbourne won more games - 59 than any pitcher starts in a season. He was the triple crown of pitching leader - 1.38 earned run average, 59 wins and 441 strikeouts. I know we are all about strikeouts now - look at that total. And he pitched 12 years! Okay that was an Ace that made a real difference.
     
    Then we got to the 30 win era where this was the standard that really set out the ACE - Denny McClain in 1968 was the last to win 30. There were 21 thirty game win seasons with most in the early 1900s. And they still had arms on their bodies the next year. These thirteen pitchers were also Aces of course Denny took to Aces in the gambling dens and ruined his career.
     
    Then came the twenty game winners - with Warren Spahn winning 20 - 13 different years during his career - despite losing years to serving in the war. His last 20 game year came in my high school graduation year - 1963. He and the other 20 game regulars were Aces. On this list of twenty game winners is Nolan Ryan - yes he also lost a lot, but he was the real leader into the strikeout era and he also was a complete game pitcher.
     
    Then we went to five man rotations and now to openers (the shame) and the argument that wins don't matter. The above pitchers also completed games - Cy Young completed 749 games - yes he won and lost games. And he earned his wins just like the other Aces above.
     
    Now, the Ace not only pitches one of five games, but only 6 - 7 innings in most outings. I see Kershaw get $35m a year and think - why? He cannot even move them forward in the off season and his speed is diminishing.
     
    Sign two number twos and three number threes and we will be better off than signing a one, running out of money and ending up with most games being toss ups or worse. Of course you can also make that a different combinations of 2s,3s,and 4s, but don't break the bank on the ACE.
     
    Then there is the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado madness. Who in the world is worth the kind of money they are talking about. Living in MN I have heard for years about how the Mauer contract impacted the team ability to sign other players (I know it was an excuse, a joke, not real), but 300 - 400m is not a joke. Look at Mike Trout - the greatest player of our current era. By himself he cannot lead them to a championship season. Nor has Machado or Harper shown that they can either.
     
    Each player is up to bat 3 - 5 times a game - that is all and if no one is on base they cannot drive them in. If they swing for the fences and have a crap average like Harper or Sano or Morrison did last year you get 30 HRs - which if they are spread out give you 30 games of production and 132 of small or no production. In the field only the catcher and first baseman are involved in the majority of fielding plays, so even in the field there is limited production most of the time.
     
    Since WAR is such a popular figure think about the numbers the best players puts up. No one is worth 80 or 90 WAR, the great ones are 10 and there are few is any each season.
    This individual game is still a team game and if the team does not pitch, field, hit, the team does not win and wins are what we want. Look at the Angels other player - HOF to be - Pujols. Tell me his worth to the team, tell me how that contract impacts the team.
     
    No - sign a lot of good players, good fielders, good on base average, good production people, steal some bases, be fast and be involved. It is the team with production 1 - 9, rotation 1 - 5, even slightly above average at all positions that wins. Not the team with the biggest star.
  18. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, A Different Advantage for the Twins   
    Last summer during a late season Minnesota Twins game Thad Levine sat on stage with Aaron Gleeman during the now annual Baseball Prospectus event at Target Field. There was a myriad of topics discussed but on point stood out to me. The general manager quipped that while Minnesota may not be able to outspend the competition in the form of player acquisition, they were committed to adding talent and spending dollars in other facets of the organization. Fast forward to today, and we’re beginning to see that all take shape.
     
    Recently announced skipper Rocco Baldelli certainly is a step outside of the typical candidate pool. He’s just 37 years-old and has no previous managerial experience. While that is something that would’ve been unheard of years ago, it’s a decision that has become more common recently. Alex Cora just won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox in his debut season, and Aaron Boone faired well with the Yankees out of the same division. It’s not just the managerial role that the Twins have committed to a different structure though, and it’s felt throughout the organization.
     
    Behind the scenes Minnesota has beefed up its analytics department, adding bodies in the front office that should be expected to push the needle. Formerly of Baseball Reference, Hans Van Slooten was brought into the fold prior to the 2018 season. A glance through his timeline will highlight the multiple intern, baseball operations, and baseball research positions the organization has committed to. It’s not just off the field talent though, and that has really played out as Baldelli’s staff has been named.
     
    After working with the Twins as an Advance Scout, Jeremy Hefner has been added to the field staff for 2019. He’s just 32 years-old and was pitching professionally as recently as 2017. Despite a lack of coaching experience, he has been named the Assistant Pitching Coach. The man he’ll be working next to is green in the big leagues as well. Wes Johnson was plucked from Arkansas after a successful stint with Mississippi State. He’s well regarded as a forward thinker using TrackMan and Rapsodo technologies, as well as being billed a velocity savant.
     
    On the diamond during play, Tony Diaz joins the Twins organization at the age of 41 after holding a base coaching position with the Colorado Rockies last season. Tommy Watkins is just 38 and joins the field staff after serving as a minor league manager and drawing rave reviews from all those he interacted with. Bringing both diversity as well as youth to the highest level of Twins baseball, there’s a very visible shift in dynamics taking place here.
     
    It was assumed that Paul Molitor would’ve been on his way out following the 2017 season had he not won Manager of the Year. Not handpicked by the front office, the collective obviously had plans of how they wanted things run and see those interacting with players as an avenue to get more production in the box score. Looking at how this new staff has been filled out, it’s plenty apparent to see that Molitor (by no fault of his own) wasn’t anywhere close to the ideal profile.
     
    From a top down view, and before the games begin to matter, it’s plenty fair to suggest that this whole blueprint has a very real chance to go up completely in flames. With so many coaches lacking experience at this level, and youth being a very common thread among them, it will be necessary to overcome hurdles in the process. However, the Twins are very clearly going out on a limb in the vein of innovation. If their competitive advantage isn’t going to come through outspending, looking to exploit market inefficiencies is a very astute way to go about gaining ground.
     
    We will still need to see if everything comes together and this formula ends up being worthwhile. That said, innovation doesn’t happen for those unwilling to take the first step, and the Twins front office has committed to a process that bucks the trend of retreads being selected as new hires first. Investing in the opportunity to pioneer a new process, and hopefully benefit both the 25-man active roster as well as the organization, the Twins could certainly be venturing down a path that helps to ever-so-slightly tip the scales in their favor.
     
    There’ll come a point in which we can look back and judge how it all worked out, but that remains at least a couple of years in the future right now. Reasoning and process alone make this plan appealing, and there’s little reason to cast aside the hope that it works.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Like
    brvama reacted to Thrylos for a blog entry, Willians Astrudillo might be the second coming of an equally unheralded catcher that won the Twins a championship   
    Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
    ---------
     
    12/13/1988: The MLB transactions for the Minnesota Twins had one line: The Twins signed free agent catcher Brian Harper to an one year contract worth $90,000. The Twins were the sixth franchise for Harper who was drafted by the California Angels in the 4th round of the 1977 MLB June Amateur Draft, traded to the Pirates and then the Cardinals who released him on April Fool's 1986, and then signed and released by the Tigers and A's in single year assignments.
     
    Harper was an intriguing guy. He hit .353/.403/.653 as a 28 year old in AAA Portland before the Twins brought him up to finish the season with the big club, hitting .295/.344/.428 with 10 walks and 12 strikeouts in 184 plate appearances. Harper became the Twins starting catcher in 1989 and held that post until 1993. His tenure with the Twins included an otherworldly .381/.435/.476 slash line in 26 World Series plate appearances in 1991, the best World Series ever.
     
    Fast forward about 30 years: November 25, 2017: The Twins sign 26 year old Willians Astrudillo as a minor league free agent. After a stint in AAA, like Harper, Astrudillo made it to the bigs, where there were a lot of accolades, regarding his low walking and strikeout percentage, and about his lack of being a "three outcome guy". Astudillo's line last season ended up being .355/.371/.516 with a 2.1 BB% and a 3.1 K%. In 1991 Brian Harper ended the season with a 3.0 BB % and a 4.7 K%. Both were about his career average for the Twins.
     
    After 1993 strike Harper moved on and ended up his career with a .295/.329/.419 major league line with a 3.9 BB% and a 5.6 K%. Both Harper and Astudillo have had questions about their defensive ability, and like Astudillo Harper had to play other positions (OF, 1B and 3B) before he was established.
     
    Harper was an integral part of the Twins 1991 team. Might be the time to let Astudillo be the "Harp" for these Twins...
  20. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Molitor Out. Falvine In.   
    Today the Minnesota Twins announced that Paul Molitor will not be brought back as Manager in 2019. With two years remaining on his freshly signed three year deal, it may come as a surprise to some, but it really shouldn't. While it hasn't been a certainty that the Twins front office would make a change, the signs have been there for some time. Now with the opportunity to hire their guy, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine prepare for a pivotal offseason.
     
    Molitor was offered a three-year extension following the 2017 season. Despite looking like he would be let go last season, Molitor's Twins got into the playoffs and he earned a Manager of the Year award because of it. With the Manager of the Year award being loosely tied to surprise performances, it's not a huge shock he was the one voters selected. Had he missed the postseason however, the award likely lands elsewhere, and the three-year deal never gets done.
     
    Being brought back this season, it appeared that Minnesota's front office thought long and hard about the decision. He was not immediately re-upped last winter, and there was never any glowing indications of support from the top during the 2018 slate. While he was offered a three-year contract, a two-year deal after such a close decision for change likely would've looked like little more than a placeholder.
     
    Certainly there will be some Twins fans that can't wrap their head around guys like Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar being gone in the same season. Adding St. Paul native Paul Molitor to that list isn't going to do management any favors with that crowd. However, give the front office credit for not concerning themselves with those opinions. Making baseball decisions based on feelings or how an individual relates to an organization is a good way to quickly venture down a wrong road. At the end of the day, fans clamor for winning more than anything else, and being solely focused on that purpose is of the utmost importance.
     
    Embarking upon one of the most important offseasons in recent memory, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will now begin with a managerial search. They are able to bring in someone of their choosing, and internal candidates such as Derek Shelton and Jeff Pickler could be waiting in the wings. The ties to Texas and Cleveland still reside in both, so Sandy Alomar or Jeff Bannister may be of some intrigue as well. I'm not sure where they turn, but I'm of the opinion that it will be a good source regardless.
     
    While there's been some in-season roster decisions I've found myself in disagreement with the front office, the vast majority of trades, acquisitions, and moves have been well executed. Although it's easy to mock a process that seems new or uncertain, it's also hard to really dig in and not see positive ripples reflecting throughout the system.
     
    Managers don't make an incredible impact during a Major League Baseball season, but Paul Molitor generally did less with more during games. He left opportunity on the table, and neither Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano truly developed under his tutelage. The organization wanting to get someone on staff that can take the big league club to new heights is a worthy ask. Now that Molitor is out, Falvine is in and it's on them to find who's next in charge.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Off The Rails: Mauer Raked by Souhan   
    I don't typically find myself sitting down to write on a Sunday evening, but with my foot in a cast, and a level of frustration in tow, here we are. The first part of that formula is thanks to my achilles deciding to part ways with my foot, the second half is the fault of none other than the Star Tribune's Jim Souhan. On Sunday night, the Tribune Twitter account sent out Souhan's latest with this attached to the piece, "Affordable contract would keep Mauer in good standing with #MNTwins."
     
    Prior to getting full blown defensive, I needed to dive in further. So, I hopped into an incognito window and got to reading.
     
    There were some quotes from Twins President Dave St. Peter defending the $184 million deal that any team would've jumped at the opportunity to ink. There was some talk with Molitor about wanting him back, and then there was what Souhan added on his own.
     
    The journalist quipped "Mauer’s desire to play probably will be based on his health. He has recovered from concussion-like symptoms to return to the everyday lineup, but is batting just .222 with a .556 OPS since his return. Before his injury, his on-base percentage was .404, ranking among the league leaders. His on-base percentage since is an uncharacteristically low .300."
     
    From Mauer, Souhan went on to talk about Dozier. A late-bloomer that has an impending pay day ahead. The Twins don't look like they'll pony up, and there's baseball reasons for that (even aside from his typical slow start). He could end the piece without returning to Mauer however, in which he offer "the best thing Mauer could do for his image is to sign an affordable contract, to give the hometown team a break, and finish his career as a bargain instead of a financial burden."
     
    Now that you've read as much as you need to, I'm sorry.
     
    Over recent seasons, Souhan has been raked himself by plenty a fan of his poorly written pieces. Whether suggesting Phil Hughes as soft for not pitching through injury requiring surgery, or calling Miguel Sano out prior to him having an All Star caliber season. In both of those occasions however, you could argue the pieces had a level of journalistic integrity. Here however, Souhan comes out looking like more of a clown than he ever has.
     
    In noting Mauer's production, Jim points to Joe's return from the disabled list. While noting his numbers, he fails to mention that's literally an eight game sample size (including Sunday). The .759 OPS and .404 OBP come in a 38 G span to open up the year. Had he been leading off during that stretch, the Twins offense may have benefitted even more (but that's another story). In a game that decides realities over the course of 162 games, cherry picking eight of them (and failing to mention it), is poor at best.
     
    Should the idea that noting statistical production in an lackluster manner not bother you, Souhan then doubled down with his final remarks. Noting that Mauer should give the Twins a break, and not be a financial burden. If the brigade wielding pitchforks at the notion of Mauer's previous contract didn't already have enough poorly derived information, they've just been handed a bit more fuel for the fire.
     
    The horse is so far dead, there's not even reason to beat it at this point. That being said, Mauer's $184 million deal was already a hometown discount. There isn't an organization in baseball that wouldn't have signed on that dotted line in a heartbeat. He was the best catcher in the game, and on pace to be among the best to ever play the position. He took less to stay home, and has been unappreciated by a fanbase that saw a living legend because a brain injury drastically altered his career.
     
    With baseball being an uncapped sport, and the Twins rarely being in a position to land big fish over the course of his deal, spending to supplement Mauer hardly seemed to be the right move. In 2018, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine executed a near flawless offseason to bring in talent while pushing the payroll to an organizational record. The reality is that even the most sensible dollars don't always come together at the right time in terms of the on field product.
     
    Given the current climate of free agents, and the new front office, I'd guess that Falvey and Levine would chuckle at the notion of giving Torii Hunter $10 million for a 2015 season at 39 years old. Veteran leadership is a great thing, but I'll be damned if suggesting it trumps performance on a good team makes any semblance of sense. Hunter was a defensive liability and on his last legs at the plate. It was a fine last hurrah, but the dollars didn't make sense. The beautiful part of it however, was that it didn't make a difference on the bottom line either.
     
    A season ago, Joe Mauer was robbed of a Gold Glove that would've made him the third player to ever win one at multiple positions (and first catcher). At the present time, he's the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and it doesn't really matter if opposing managers are blind to that because of his lack of power numbers. Should Mauer want to return next year, Minnesota should jump at the opportunity. He can help Miguel Sano make that defensive transition, and earning something like $10 million is peanuts for the benefit he'd bring on the diamond.
     
    When the dust settles on his career, Joe Mauer will go down as the best player to ever play in the Minnesota Twins organization not named Harmon Killebrew. Whether you can't come to grips with his contract, or the fact that a season of inflated home runs in the Metrodome didn't transform who he was doesn't really matter. Tonight Jim Souhan tried to summarize what Mauer has been, and can be going forward, while failing to do even a shred of journalistic justice.
     
    It's a sad look for the Star Tribune, it's an expected offering from Souhan, and it's a reminder that Mauer has deserved so much better than what Minnesota has given him for far too long.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Like
    brvama reacted to Ted Schwerzler for a blog entry, Steady Eddie is Launching and Laughing   
    The Minnesota Twins were going to be without Miguel Sano at some point during the 2018 Major League Baseball season. Whether from a possible suspension, complications due to a rod being inserted into his leg, or the normal wear and tear a body of that size can endure, the reality is he would miss time. When that point came, Eduardo Escobar was going to be the man that filled in. What wasn't expected is that the utility man would raise the bar. Then again, maybe we should have seen this coming all along.
     
    Back in 2015, I wrote a piece entitled Twins Cash Check Formerly Known as Francisco Liriano. The point of that article was that Liriano had run his course within the organization and was flipped to the Chicago White Sox in a move that was largely forgettable. Escobar was a part of the return however, and he posted a 2.6 fWAR in 2014. As a part time player, he'd carved out a nice role for himself and the 2015 spring training continued to carry that momentum forward. Since that point, he's posted yearly fWAR totals of 1.9, -0.2, and 1.7. Outside of 2016 in which Minnesota went in the can as a whole, he's been incredible valuable.
     
    Now having played in 29 of the teams first 32 games, Escobar finds himself with a 1.4 fWAR (best on the team) that projects to a 7.1 mark over the course of a full season. There's next to no chance that pace continues, but for the sake of context, Joe Mauer won the MVP in 2009 with a 7.6 fWAR season. Right now, Escobar is playing like nothing short of the Twins team MVP.
     
    The great thing about what is currently taking place for the Fogo de Chao loving infielder, is that he's not doing anything too out of the ordinary. His .341 BABIP is far from inflated, he's swinging through roughly the same amount of pitches, and neither his contact or chase rates are out of whack. His 35 home run pace is probably unsustainable, but far from crazy after launching 20 a season ago. The jump from a 12.8% HR/FB rate to a 15.9% HR/FB is noticeable but doesn't scream crazy either. If we're looking for a change, things could potentially be explained by a more gradual one.
     
    At the time of first tracking in 2015, Escobar posted a 13.4 degree average launch angle on his base hits. Year over year, he's improved that number to 14.1, 17.1, and now 18.5 this season. Getting lift is something we've seen the game embrace as it positively correlates with the quality of hits generated. Simply put, hitting the ball harder, further, and higher is only going to positively impact an individual's overall results. Eduardo's double, triple, and home run totals seem to agree with that notion as well.
     
    I'm not going to boil this outburst from the Twins utility man down solely to a launch angle adaptation. I think there's plenty of factors at play, but it seems apparent that his growth as a hitter has definitely contributed to the current surge. What's arguably more important in this whole scenario, is just how valuable Escobar is to the Twins roster makeup as a whole.
     
    The talk of the offseason was in regards to how the Twins will retain Brian Dozier going into the 2019 season. My inclination all along has been that they'd either flip him for something, or allow him to walk with a qualifying offer tied to his name. Given what the market showed this last offseason, there's a decent possibility that Brian could accept that offer and return to the Twins on a one-year deal. Regardless, the totality of his age, production, and value going forward seems somewhat replaceable for Minnesota. Trying to find another Eduardo Escobar could be a more daunting task.
     
    Over the course of a full season, fWAR totals around 1.5-2.0 are relatively easy to come by. Escobar plays many positions, but is probably below average defensively at all of them. That being said, he's a very good teammate and provides a strong clubhouse presence. He'll be just 30 years old next season, and the familiarity of backing up all over for the Twins is something he's done since he was a 23 year old. Staring at an average annual value south of $8 million or so per year, that's a commodity that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may not be so keen on losing.
     
    At the end of the day, Escobar is front and center regarding this Twins current turnaround. That's not to say someone else won't pick up the slack shortly, and it's a fool's errand to realistically expect 162 game averages off of this current level of production. Even at a mid-range value for Paul Molitor though, Eduardo Escobar is a player that winning teams need to have around and he's a great asset for Minnesota.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Like
    brvama reacted to mikelink45 for a blog entry, William Tecumseh Sherman   
    As we carefully analyze each game of the new season and try to read the tea leaves on each swing of the bat I thought I would provide just a little change of pace and look at another story from baseball history.
     
     
    While Civil War general Abner Doubleday is mythologically given the title of the founder of the game of baseball, a myth that has been refuted by nearly every scholar, we should look at baseball and an even more famous General – William Tecumseh Sherman. In his biography by James Lee McDonough we learn the following:
    “…a number of friends with whom Cump (Sherman) played a primitive form of baseball, using yarn balls. From time to time the balls were hit into a garden adjoining the playing field, whose owner became irate at his garden being trampled by young me retrieving valls. When the man began confiscating the balls and throwing them into his stove, Sherman and his buddies sought revenge. They filled a ball with gunpowder. Soon the unsuspecting garden owner seized the devilishly prepared thing and cast it into his stove; a fiery explosion rocked the house, leaving the man suffering with burns and damage o his home. The boys, naturally, had waited close by to observe the result of their scheme. Suddenly the angry man burst forth from his house, intent upon chasing down the culprits. He managed to catch the slowest of the boys as they ran.” Sherman being fleet of foot escaped unscathed!
     
    The Smithsonian takes the relationship to baseball and the Civil War another step forward with this statement, “The evolving Knickerbocker Code or rules had its origins in metropolitan New York in 1845. Union soldiers, more familiar with the game, introduced others, including Southerners and Westerners to baseball throughout the Civil War, resulting in thousands of soldiers learning the game. Upon returning home, the game spread to friends and neighbors and soon the sport was played in every region of the country, solidifying its title as “The National Pastime." http://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/2012/08/civil-war-baseball.html
  24. Like
    brvama reacted to Andrew Thares for a blog entry, Why Yu Darvish Will Be Cheaper Than Everyone Thinks   
    This offseason has been nothing short of unprecedented. It started with the 23-year-old sensation Shohei Ohtani deciding to leave Japan for the MLB, two years before he was eligible to sign without the International Free Agency restrictions. Then it was followed up with two months of absolute standstill for many of the top free agents. So, how could this season’s free agent market potentially cause Yu Darvish to sign for a lot less money than the six years and $160MM that MLB Trade Rumors had originally predicted? Let’s take a look.
     
    In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus towards lower tier free agents that they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers.
     
    Another factor that will cause Darvish’s value to drop is the luxury-tax system. While MLB does not have salary cap like many other U.S. sports leagues do, they do have a luxury-tax that disincentivizes teams from spending frivolous amounts of money on free agents. As teams go further and further above the luxury-tax threshold, and as the number of years they spend above the threshold increases, so to does the amount that the teams are taxed. This is causing many of the top spending teams, who have spent the last few years above the luxury-tax threshold, to want to cut back on spending and get below it in 2018. As a result, these teams are choosing to take a pass on players like Darvish.
     
    Major League Baseball has seen a stretch of extreme parity over the past half-decade, with 26 of the 30 teams having made a playoff appearance since 2011, along with traditional bottom dwellers, like the Royals, becoming World Series contenders. However, over the past year or two, the MLB has seen a real shift from a league filled with parity, to apparent “super teams” atop each division. The reasons for this are many, and I won’t go into details why in this post. So how does all of this impact Yu Darvish? Well, I have already touched on why many of the teams at the top aren’t looking to add Darvish, but now with this power separation, many teams are opting to go with a rebuilding strategy as opposed to signing free agents. This takes even more teams out of the running, that might have otherwise made a run at competing in 2018, and thus looking to sign Darvish.
     
    So, who does this all leave that would be interested in signing Darvish? Well, it was reported that Yu Darvish has narrowed his list of teams down to six. These teams are the Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and of course the Twins.
     
    Let’s look at the five other teams remaining that are competing with the Twins for Yu Darvish’s services. Saturday night, the Astros made a trade to acquire Pirates starter Gerrit Cole. With this move, it all but fills out the Astros’ rotation with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers Jr. as their 1-4, followed by quality starters in Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh competing for the 5th spot. This all but takes them out of the running for Yu Darvish.
     
    Additionally, the Dodgers and Yankees are teams that are looking to stay below the $197MM luxury-tax threshold in 2018. As it stands, their projected 2018 salaries are $191MM and $172MM respectively. This means that signing Darvish will put the Dodgers well beyond the luxury-tax, and limits the Yankees to less than $25MM in average annual value (AAV) on Darvish’s contract in order to stay below. Doing so would leave the Yankees with no margin to play with if they need to sign or trade for another player throughout the season, which means they are probably out unless his value drops down below $20MM in AAV. The Rangers are also a team that have said that they are looking to cut payroll in 2018. While their motives to do so might not be luxury-tax related, their desire to do so makes it hard to see Darvish making a reunion with the team that originally signed him out of Japan in 2012.
     
    This just leaves the Chicago Cubs, who are looking to replace 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. The Cubs have also expressed an interest in staying below the luxury-tax, but given their roughly $30MM in space to work with, and the fact that they were below the luxury-tax in 2017, their incentives to stay below aren’t as great as the Dodgers and Yankees are. This most likely makes the Cubs the greatest competition that the Twins have for Darvish. While the Cubs could easily get into a bidding war with the Twins, and push his salary closer to the $30MM AAV range, I don’t see them doing so for a couple of reasons. The first is this would leave them with little to no room to work with in 2018 for any other additions if they wish to stay below the luxury-tax. The second, is they have shown interest in a potential reunion with Arrieta. If the price for Darvish gets too high, they could easily put their focus on bringing back Arrieta.
     
    With all of that being said, this is great news for the Twins. Not only does it increase their chances of actually signing Yu Darvish, but they might be able to do so without having to break the bank. There is also a slight chance that they might be able to land Darvish on a five-year deal as opposed to a six or seven-year deal. This would be great for the Twins, as he would come off of the Twins books after his age 35 season. In the end, I see Darvish signing either a five or six-year deal, in the $115MM-$135MM range, a far cry from the six years and $160MM that was originally projected.
  25. Like
    brvama reacted to TwinsTakes-RD for a blog entry, TwinsTakes on Acquiring Players - Trust the Process - Part 2   
    Players are the lifeblood of your team. Acquire them well and often.


    The Minnesota Twins are finally at a point where they have built a team with a lot of talent. Most of that talent is young and still developing into what they could potentially be. They will go a long way towards making the Minnesota Twins a perennial playoff team now and in the future. All those years of losing are...uhh...finally paying off? Wait...that doesn’t sound right. They are finally seeing the fruits of having the higher draft picks as a result of all those losing seasons.
     
    This is part 2 of our “Trusting the Process” series on what it takes to build a perennial playoff and championship contending team. The first part, simply called Trusting the Process, was about how the Twins Front Office and CBO Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have helped or let the Minnesota Twins compete this season and why what they did, or didn’t do, at the trade deadline was actually showing how they are trusting the process.
     
    At the end of the series, we’ll go over how the Minnesota Twins have done in each area. Maybe we’ll find why they struggled for so many of the last 6 seasons. Today, though, we will continue the series with how a team acquires players and what tools are available to each organization to do it.
     

    4-Tool Player Acquisition


    There is a process to developing a team into a champion. The front office of any organization needs to trust that process to become a championship caliber team, not just for one season, for every season. That is every team’s goal, to contend for a championship every season. Acquiring and developing players is how teams compete, how they improve and ultimately, how they win.
     
    Every team has the same tools at their disposal to acquire players. The major tools are the Draft/Drafting, Free Agency, International Signings, and Trades. They have to use any means necessary to acquire players. If they lose focus or don’t do very well on any one of them, they’re probably not going to become that perennial championship-caliber team.
     
    If a team doesn’t draft well, they won’t have many prospects. If they don’t sign good players in Free Agency, they’ll be stuck with bad contracts which will affect payroll and not allow them the flexibility to get other free agents or acquire the players they want or need in trades. If they get nothing from International Signings, they aren’t getting anything from all the time and money they put into their baseball academies and their international scouting and if they don’t make good trades, they’ll either get rid of their best players for nothing or trade their best prospects for very little return.
     
    A team may need to make a few moves to help push an already contending team to the brink of winning a championship but, those moves could also change their team for the worse in the future and if they don’t win that season, they may set themselves back because of it. If they’ve done well in all areas of acquiring players, they should be able to recover from those trades.*
    *One name….Matt Capps! Ughh!
     

    First Draft


    The best way to get players is through the draft. It happens every year and every organization picks and signs about 30+ players and they don’t have to give anything up to acquire these players. Obviously, the biggest problem with the draft is having to wait for 3-6 years or more for most of those drafted players to reach the majors but, if you’ve consistently drafted well, there should always be players coming or close to ready to contribute to the big club.
     
    Of course, if the organization has done well in the other 4 areas of player acquisition, they won’t need to rely on rookies as much. If they do have players coming consistently every season, they have the opportunity to trade other pieces to either improve the club now by adding a good veteran or in the future by adding more prospects.
    We can’t cover acquiring players without talking about scouting. Without scouting or a team’s scouts, they would have no idea how good a player is right now or how good they might be in the future. The movie, Moneyball, taught a lot of us that scouting is now a lot more than just watching a player and seeing their skills in person.
     
    Analytics now play a big part in evaluating a player and their talent. Another area probably not talked about enough is a player’s makeup and how he’ll look on television and in a team’s promotional videos. Noooo….not that kind of makeup! Makeup as in what makes each player tick, how hard they compete, how good of a teammate they are and how they handle adversity. It’s not talked about very much because the fans rarely see that side of a player, especially when it comes in the dugout or in the clubhouse but a player can change the whole team with his makeup.
     
    The draft is the easiest way to acquire players but it might be the hardest way to produce players. You can get a lot of players at one time but, of the 30 or so a team signs, very few of them make it to the majors at all or become impact players once they get there. That being said, the years a team has control over a player and their salary is a big reason why they need to get players from the draft.
     

    Free Agency isn’t Free at All


    Free agency is the quickest way for a team to improve. Teams can simply negotiate with a player and give them a better deal or more money than any other team. It’s not that simple, of course, and it doesn’t always work the way teams would like it to. Maybe a player just doesn’t fit or wasn’t as good as advertised so there are risks involved with every signing.
     
    There is the problem of not getting the player you want and then having to go to further down your list and/or maybe overspending to get the player you want. Free agent contracts in Major League Baseball are getting crazier by the year. Because of how long teams have control of their players, the majority don’t hit actual free agency until they are in the high 20s or early 30s. Obviously part of that also has to do with teams re-signing their players and buying out some of their free agent years but it may make free agency even more of a risk.
     
    Depending on many factors, players hit their peak sometime around 30 years old, give or take a year or two. That’s also when most of them hit the free agent market. So, teams are signing players to gigantic multi-year contracts and it’s very likely they end up paying more money as they age and as their play declines. Yoenis Cespedes signed the biggest contract last offseason at 4 years/$110M and he was 31 years old when he signed that contract. Will he get better in the span of that contract or will his play decline as he gets even older? That’s up for debate and it’s different for every player but you might want to keep that receipt just in case.*
    *”Umm...this didn’t work like it was supposed to. Can I get a refund?”
     
    Free agency is a great tool to use to quickly strengthen an area of weakness or to get that player a team might need to get them over the hump but it might not work as well as they'd like it to work. I’m sure that won’t matter when the General Managers get their owner’s checkbooks out next offseason, though.
     

    Foreign Signatures


    The MLB International Signing Period is how teams sign players born outside of the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico because there isn’t an International Draft. So, it’s basically International Free Agency but it’s for prospects and players who are as young as 16 years old. That means every team has to trust their international scouts but every team also has Baseball Academies in the Dominican Republic and other countries so they can develop these players and get them into their system.
     
    Look no further than the current Twins roster as proof that International Signings work. 2009 was a good year for the Minnesota Twins on the International market as they signed current players, OF Max Kepler, SS Jorge Polanco and 3B Miguel Sano*. Those players are a part of the core of this young Twins team and it shows how big of a part international signings are for every team.
    *Pelotero: Ballplayer (2012) is a highly recommended documentary that is mainly about the signing of Miguel Sano and all of the problems that occurred through that process. A sequel, The Miguel Sano Story, is on the way. No release date is available at this time.
     

    Trading Place


    There is also the possibility for any team’s General Manager to pick up the phone and call another team’s General Manager, tell them they’re interested in a player and ask if he’s available. The answer could be no, he’s untouchable, what would you give us or this is what we’d need coming back to us if we were to trade him. It could get done right away. It could take a week, a month or even more. They could get really close to making a deal and then something makes it go wrong.
     
    Look at the Brian Dozier saga from last offseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers were looking for a 2nd baseman.
    The Minnesota Twins have Brian Dozier and the whole league knew he was on the trading block. Did the Twins want to trade him? Not necessarily but he was the player with the most value at that time. The Twins need pitching. Starting, relieving, sales, any kind of pitching. They need it. They wanted a significant return for their All-Star 2nd Baseman who had 2 years left on a contract at a good salary. The Dodgers did not want to give up more than one of their top pitching prospects, Jose De Leon.
     
    The talks seemed to go on forever. The Twins wanting another top prospect added to the deal. The Dodgers, not wanting to give up another prospect or, at least, a prospect as high as the Twins may have wanted, decided to go in another direction and trade Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for 2B Logan Forsythe. Some have said the Dodgers basically traded for Brian Dozier because of how similar they are but, as the season has gone on, you have to wonder if the Dodgers will be kicking themselves if the postseason doesn’t work out like they want it to.
    Just like in Free Agency, there’s risk involved in making trades. It’s almost the same thing except teams are giving up prospects instead of money to acquire players in a trade. They can acquire almost any level of player in a trade so if they believe there’s a diamond in the rough and they can get him on the cheap for a low prospect or two, the risk isn’t nearly as steep.

    Closing Time
    You may already be home and you can stay here!


     
    There aren’t many other ways to acquire players but they shouldn’t be considered major tools. Waiver claims are another way to acquire players but I’d consider that either under trades or free agents. Teams may have to waive one of their own players to get the player claimed on the roster or not so that’s pretty much a player for player trade if they do lose the player or signing a free agent if they don’t.
     
    There’s also the Rule 5 Draft. Yes, it’s another way to acquire players but it hasn’t really shown to be a very consistent way to find good players.
     
    In the next article, we’ll delve into Trusting the Process of Player Development. After the series, we’ll see how the Twins have done in all these areas of Acquiring Players and Trusting the Process. There has to be a reason they’ve had such a terrible run since 2010. Was it because they didn't trust the process?
     
    Thanks for reading our TwinsTakes on Trusting the Process of Acquiring Players! We’d love to hear your TwinsTakes on the subject! Please comment below or on the posts of this article on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or Google+!
     

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