twinsarmchairgm

I believe their plan is this based on what I have read, heard, etc.: 1. Rid the books of any dead salary for the 2015 season outside of Mauer 2. Rebuild the farm system through the draft & international signings. a. They are off to a good start in this regards but would benefit from more frontline SP depth and up the middle talent 3. Spend sparingly in Free Agency for 2013,’14, ’15 &’16 4. Over the next 3 seasons get our new core into the majors featuring if most go as planned Hicks, Arica, Gibson, Meyer, May, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, & Berrios (in order of debut) 5. After the ’16 season assess where we are at in a competitive sense a. If that core develops to 80% of expectations it is most likely a say an 80-85 win team by end of 2016? 6. See what pieces are missing based on how that core develops a. I think your OF is set at this point with hope Arcia in LF, Buxton in CF, Hicks in RF b. Sano proves he can give average to slightly below average D at 3rd and turns into the monster bat he certainly looks like. c. Rosario is the wild card, if he can stay at 2B that is a major win giving you a potential 3-4 win 2B with high avg. and decent pop who is average at the keystone. If not I think you can shift him to LF where his range will be plus and his weaker arm will be hidden better. Then Arcia is your primary DH. d. I think Mauer is probably hardly catching by this point either so he is either your main DH or 1B e. Say Rosario is the 2B I hope he is then on the offensive side SS,3B, C are question marks as I don’t think Plouffe or Escobar/Florimon are long term answers. f. Gibson, Meyer, & May/Berrios/#4 pick this year which is most likely a college SP (most likely Sean Mannea, Ryne Stenek, or Brandon Shipley (not all) turn into a solid 1-2-3 in the rotation and while they may not be elite they combine for 10-12 War a season. g. The Twins enter the ’17 off season as an 85 win team with 3 holes on the O side and 2 in the rotation but only have a payroll in the 75m -85m range. h. This is where the Twins are at the crossroads i. Option A: with attendance surging back in ’16 after an exciting season ala the ’01 season the Twins finally foray in FA and grab two solid mid rotation SP’s who are 3 WAR types (Edwin Jackson type of contracts from this offseason) they also spend 10 million on solid role players to fill 3B, SS, & C solidifying themselves for a 3-5 year window of a WS run and finally make everyone forget about the cheap dome days. ii. Option B: Same scenario as above but once again the Twins front office does nothing in free agency instead filling the remaining holes with farm system who are serviceable but do not push them over the into th3 95 win type of team they are capable of being with this core. They miss the world series window and basically we have a repeat of the last 10 years. Which option is more likely today? Probably option B but excuse me for hoping….

I believe their plan is this based on what I have read, heard, etc.: 1. Rid the books of any dead salary for the 2015 season outside of Mauer 2. Rebuild the farm system through the draft & international signings. a. They are off to a good start in this regards but would benefit from more frontline SP depth and up the middle talent 3. Spend sparingly in Free Agency for 2013,’14, ’15 &’16 4. Over the next 3 seasons get our new core into the majors featuring if most go as planned Hicks, Arica, Gibson, Meyer, May, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, & Berrios (in order of debut) 5. After the ’16 season assess where we are at in a competitive sense a. If that core develops to 80% of expectations it is most likely a say an 80-85 win team by end of 2016? 6. See what pieces are missing based on how that core develops a. I think your OF is set at this point with hope Arcia in LF, Buxton in CF, Hicks in RF b. Sano proves he can give average to slightly below average D at 3rd and turns into the monster bat he certainly looks like. c. Rosario is the wild card, if he can stay at 2B that is a major win giving you a potential 3-4 win 2B with high avg. and decent pop who is average at the keystone. If not I think you can shift him to LF where his range will be plus and his weaker arm will be hidden better. Then Arcia is your primary DH. d. I think Mauer is probably hardly catching by this point either so he is either your main DH or 1B e. Say Rosario is the 2B I hope he is then on the offensive side SS,3B, C are question marks as I don’t think Plouffe or Escobar/Florimon are long term answers. f. Gibson, Meyer, & May/Berrios/#4 pick this year which is most likely a college SP (most likely Sean Mannea, Ryne Stenek, or Brandon Shipley (not all) turn into a solid 1-2-3 in the rotation and while they may not be elite they combine for 10-12 War a season. g. The Twins enter the ’17 off season as an 85 win team with 3 holes on the O side and 2 in the rotation but only have a payroll in the 75m -85m range. h. This is where the Twins are at the crossroads i. Option A: with attendance surging back in ’16 after an exciting season ala the ’01 season the Twins finally foray in FA and grab two solid mid rotation SP’s who are 3 WAR types (Edwin Jackson type of contracts from this offseason) they also spend 10 million on solid role players to fill 3B, SS, & C solidifying themselves for a 3-5 year window of a WS run and finally make everyone forget about the cheap dome days. ii. Option B: Same scenario as above but once again the Twins front office does nothing in free agency instead filling the remaining holes with farm system who are serviceable but do not push them over the into th3 95 win type of team they are capable of being with this core. They miss the world series window and basically we have a repeat of the last 10 years. Which option is more likely today? Probably option B but excuse me for hoping….

The Denard to the Nationals rumors refuse to die, and with the Twins looking like they will not be competing in the next 2-3 years. I think maximizing Spans trade value and dealing him in the next month might be the right thing to do. Now what type of package could we expect to get from Washington has been of of much debate among fans. I have seen some suggest that anything less the Jordan Zimmerman is a deal breaker and others who have clamored we still look for a package revolving around a closer. I thought a good starting place would be to see what other players of Span's caliber have been moved for in recent years and then try to find the best package based on that estimate. The most logical starting place to me was the Michael Bourn trade last year between the Astros and Braves. Atlanta sent a young, low ceiling major league player and 3 minor leaguers none of whom where top prospects to acquire the leadoff hitter they needed. Bourn was worth 14.0 WAR from 2008 through 2011 while Span was worth 12.2 but missed half of 2011 with his concussion. They are similar players and feel Span should be able to return similer value. In terms of a low upside major league ready player, I would ask for Steve Lombardozzi who is basically a younger version of Jamey Carrol and could be a useful 2B for the near future not to mention his ties to Twins history. In terms of prospects coming back in the deal I think it is unreasonable to expect the Nationals top prospects as much as I would love to see Anthony Rendon despite his health risk. When looking through the rest of the Nats top 20 prospect lists they have some pitchers who intrigue me but unfortunately they are hurt or have major question marks about them. Sammy Solis is a 22 year lefthander who sits 90-94 with a plus curveball and solid change, but he is out with Tommy John for the year. Robbie Ray is another young lefthander with three solid pitches, but lacks the upside of some of the other arms in the system. A wildcard Lefty is Kylin Turnbull who has the size and fastball to be an ace but has yet to develop the secondary pitches or consistency. Matt Purke has shoulder issues, Alex Meyer may never be consistent enough with his mechanics to start and so on... With that in mind I would start the negotiations with Span for Rendon straight up. Twins get their 3B of the future and the Nats fill a big need with a solid CF and very good leadoff hitter as they make a run this year. Assuming the Nats would balk at giving up Rendon, I would counter with an offer of Span for Lombordozzi, Ray, Turnbull, and PTBNL with the expectation that the player would be Solis assuming he medicals come back positive at the end of the year. The Twins get a young, high OBP, solid defender at 2B to pair with Dozier until Michael is ready. They also get Ray and Turnbull as minor league pitching depth while still being a couple of years away. Getting Solis as the PTBNL is the key to the deal in my opinion. Assuming he does not have any setbacks during rehab, he should be ready to pitch by next spring since he had surgery in Feb. He was set to be at AA so he could conceivably be major league ready by 2014 and profiles as a #3 starter who can miss bats. Something the Twins sorely need. I think this is a realistic idea of what a return on a Span trade could look like and you could see by 2015 a starting 2B a #3 starter, a #4 starter, and a solid bullpen arm (if Turnbull cant develop secondary pitches) for a year and a half of Span. That's a good value in return.

The Denard to the Nationals rumors refuse to die, and with the Twins looking like they will not be competing in the next 2-3 years. I think maximizing Spans trade value and dealing him in the next month might be the right thing to do. Now what type of package could we expect to get from Washington has been of of much debate among fans. I have seen some suggest that anything less the Jordan Zimmerman is a deal breaker and others who have clamored we still look for a package revolving around a closer. I thought a good starting place would be to see what other players of Span's caliber have been moved for in recent years and then try to find the best package based on that estimate. The most logical starting place to me was the Michael Bourn trade last year between the Astros and Braves. Atlanta sent a young, low ceiling major league player and 3 minor leaguers none of whom where top prospects to acquire the leadoff hitter they needed. Bourn was worth 14.0 WAR from 2008 through 2011 while Span was worth 12.2 but missed half of 2011 with his concussion. They are similar players and feel Span should be able to return similer value. In terms of a low upside major league ready player, I would ask for Steve Lombardozzi who is basically a younger version of Jamey Carrol and could be a useful 2B for the near future not to mention his ties to Twins history. In terms of prospects coming back in the deal I think it is unreasonable to expect the Nationals top prospects as much as I would love to see Anthony Rendon despite his health risk. When looking through the rest of the Nats top 20 prospect lists they have some pitchers who intrigue me but unfortunately they are hurt or have major question marks about them. Sammy Solis is a 22 year lefthander who sits 90-94 with a plus curveball and solid change, but he is out with Tommy John for the year. Robbie Ray is another young lefthander with three solid pitches, but lacks the upside of some of the other arms in the system. A wildcard Lefty is Kylin Turnbull who has the size and fastball to be an ace but has yet to develop the secondary pitches or consistency. Matt Purke has shoulder issues, Alex Meyer may never be consistent enough with his mechanics to start and so on... With that in mind I would start the negotiations with Span for Rendon straight up. Twins get their 3B of the future and the Nats fill a big need with a solid CF and very good leadoff hitter as they make a run this year. Assuming the Nats would balk at giving up Rendon, I would counter with an offer of Span for Lombordozzi, Ray, Turnbull, and PTBNL with the expectation that the player would be Solis assuming he medicals come back positive at the end of the year. The Twins get a young, high OBP, solid defender at 2B to pair with Dozier until Michael is ready. They also get Ray and Turnbull as minor league pitching depth while still being a couple of years away. Getting Solis as the PTBNL is the key to the deal in my opinion. Assuming he does not have any setbacks during rehab, he should be ready to pitch by next spring since he had surgery in Feb. He was set to be at AA so he could conceivably be major league ready by 2014 and profiles as a #3 starter who can miss bats. Something the Twins sorely need. I think this is a realistic idea of what a return on a Span trade could look like and you could see by 2015 a starting 2B a #3 starter, a #4 starter, and a solid bullpen arm (if Turnbull cant develop secondary pitches) for a year and a half of Span. That's a good value in return.

In really studying the Twins major leage and minor league rosters this off season, and looking back at the past 4 years I came to the painful conclusion that the Twins missed their window to win a World Series. I think 2009-2012 was that window, and they missed that window due to career altering injuries, poor front office management, and the damn Yankees. Justin Morneau suffering a concussion when he had just reached his absolute peak, was a more crippling blow then most realized. At the time of the injury he was hitting .345/.437/.618, and was looking like a sure fire MVP. Whose to say that Morneau is what would have pushed the Twins past the said Yankee's, but he didnt play against them in '09 or '10. Mauer batteled the knee injury in '10 effecting his performance in the playoffs, and all but wiping out his '11 season as well. His future behind the plate is unclear at best at this point. Injuries to top pitching prospects Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers (I am calling Wimmers Rick Ankeil impression an injury) also has our pitching depth depleted. When Terry Ryan stepped down in'07 he handed over the reigns to longtime assistant Bill Smith, and I felt the Twins would continue to chug along as usual. No one knew how in over his head Smith was, and how big the talent gap he inherited was. Smith didnt help himself by trading our only impact prospect for an alright reliever, getting burned in the Delmon trade, not getting maximum return on the Santana trade, botching the Hardy-Nishioka decision, and being dealt some bad luck in his drafts. What Ryan inherited in his 2nd go round is a farm system with almost no major league ready talent, and its best prospects at least 3-4 years away. So where does that put the Twins next window? I was searching for that answer when I opened Baseball America's Prospect Pulse column. While the Twins where hardly represented in the pitchers column they had more then their fair share of prospects in the position players portion. After reading it, a small shoot of hope started to sprout and I came to the conclusion that, providing a lot of luck, the Twins could have a great young nucleolus all reaching the majors around 2015 and all hitting their peaks about 2017-20. Lets take a look at three years out and see what the team might be look like then. C Mauer age 32 / Hermann age 27 (spilting catching duties assuming Hermann continues to develop as a catcher and Mauer is still able to catch 60-80 games a year) 1B Parmelee age 27 / Mauer 2B Rosario age 24 SS Michael age 24 3B Sano age 23/Valencia age 31 (if Sano stops growing otherwise he could be at 1B instead) LF Arcia age 25 CF Hicks age 26 RF Benson age 28 DH Parmelee/Sano/Mauer/Hermann UTIL Dozier age 28 4th OF Revere age 26 Rotation: SP Appel age 26 (hoping he slides to #2 in this years draft) SP Gibson age 29 SP Baker age 33 or Other vetern free agent pitcher. SP Wimmers age 28 (assuming he recovers his form) SP Hendriks age 27 While the chances of all of these guys developing to even 80% of their ceilings is almost nil, and its likely a couple will wash out completely, it doesn't stop me from seeing the Twins next World Series window as being 2017-2020 when all of these guys will be within the peak ages of 27-31 with the exception of Mauer. So if your are upset and bitter about the Twins not looking like contenders this year or the next hopefully this gives a ray of hope, and something else to follow.

In really studying the Twins major leage and minor league rosters this off season, and looking back at the past 4 years I came to the painful conclusion that the Twins missed their window to win a World Series. I think 2009-2012 was that window, and they missed that window due to career altering injuries, poor front office management, and the damn Yankees. Justin Morneau suffering a concussion when he had just reached his absolute peak, was a more crippling blow then most realized. At the time of the injury he was hitting .345/.437/.618, and was looking like a sure fire MVP. Whose to say that Morneau is what would have pushed the Twins past the said Yankee's, but he didnt play against them in '09 or '10. Mauer batteled the knee injury in '10 effecting his performance in the playoffs, and all but wiping out his '11 season as well. His future behind the plate is unclear at best at this point. Injuries to top pitching prospects Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers (I am calling Wimmers Rick Ankeil impression an injury) also has our pitching depth depleted. When Terry Ryan stepped down in'07 he handed over the reigns to longtime assistant Bill Smith, and I felt the Twins would continue to chug along as usual. No one knew how in over his head Smith was, and how big the talent gap he inherited was. Smith didnt help himself by trading our only impact prospect for an alright reliever, getting burned in the Delmon trade, not getting maximum return on the Santana trade, botching the Hardy-Nishioka decision, and being dealt some bad luck in his drafts. What Ryan inherited in his 2nd go round is a farm system with almost no major league ready talent, and its best prospects at least 3-4 years away. So where does that put the Twins next window? I was searching for that answer when I opened Baseball America's Prospect Pulse column. While the Twins where hardly represented in the pitchers column they had more then their fair share of prospects in the position players portion. After reading it, a small shoot of hope started to sprout and I came to the conclusion that, providing a lot of luck, the Twins could have a great young nucleolus all reaching the majors around 2015 and all hitting their peaks about 2017-20. Lets take a look at three years out and see what the team might be look like then. C Mauer age 32 / Hermann age 27 (spilting catching duties assuming Hermann continues to develop as a catcher and Mauer is still able to catch 60-80 games a year) 1B Parmelee age 27 / Mauer 2B Rosario age 24 SS Michael age 24 3B Sano age 23/Valencia age 31 (if Sano stops growing otherwise he could be at 1B instead) LF Arcia age 25 CF Hicks age 26 RF Benson age 28 DH Parmelee/Sano/Mauer/Hermann UTIL Dozier age 28 4th OF Revere age 26 Rotation: SP Appel age 26 (hoping he slides to #2 in this years draft) SP Gibson age 29 SP Baker age 33 or Other vetern free agent pitcher. SP Wimmers age 28 (assuming he recovers his form) SP Hendriks age 27 While the chances of all of these guys developing to even 80% of their ceilings is almost nil, and its likely a couple will wash out completely, it doesn't stop me from seeing the Twins next World Series window as being 2017-2020 when all of these guys will be within the peak ages of 27-31 with the exception of Mauer. So if your are upset and bitter about the Twins not looking like contenders this year or the next hopefully this gives a ray of hope, and something else to follow.

This was originally posted at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/ Stanford ace Mark Appel followed up his great start last week with a not so great one this week. While he went 8 innings and struck out 11, he gave 8 hits, two HR's and 7 runs in a 7-4 loss to Fresno State. Conor Glassery at Baseball America had a nice write up on him after the start that can be found here. While the amount of hard contact he gives up now is concerning, Appel can grow into a dominant starter if his command within the strike zone can improve. Florida State OF James Ramsey was 5-10 with a 2B, a 3B and his 4th homer of the season in a weekend sweep of Maine. Ramsey has gotten off to a solid start this year, but with teams most likely viewing him as a 4th outfielder I wonder if someone might try to move him to 2B his high school position. Brandon Kline of Virginia continues his transition to starter with an alright start this weekend against Seton Hall. He went 6 innings again with 6 k's and 3 bb's, he gave up 4 runs, but only 1 was earned, on 5 hits. Kline continues to intrigue me due to his fastball/slider combo and his ability to generate ground balls. He could end up in the bullpen in the majors, but has the stuff to be a legitimate weapon in the late innings. Oklahoma State's Andrew Heaney continued his good start with another very good outing against TCU on Friday night. He gave up only 2 runs on 6 hits over 6.2 innings with 9 k's and 3 bb's in a 4-2 win. Heaney, who was demoted to the bullpen in the middle of last year, has really built upon his success he had on the Cape, and is looking like a sure bet to be taken in the supplemental round at this point. Arkansas closer Nolan Sanburn threw 6 innings with 11 k's this week, but gave up 7 hits and 2 runs in his three appearances. Razorback starter D.J. Baxendale went just 5 innings in his start against Texas, but he gave up only 2 runs on 3 hits. On the year, he has given up only 4 earned runs in 17 innings with a 3:1 K:B ratio. Arizona State's Brady Rogers continued his sterling start to the season with a complete game against University of Saint Louis. He gave up just 4 hits and 1 unearned run while striking out 7 and walking just 2. He has yet to give up an earned run on the year and has a 12:1 K:BB ratio while giving up only 13 hits in 22 innings. Alex Wood of Georgia dominated Western Illinois on Friday night as he continues to prove he has recovered from Tommy John surgery. He went 8 innings giving up no runs and only 2 hits, he walked no one and struck out 14. If he continues to pitch well he could move into the top 50 picks in the draft. Another name to watch: Former Twins draftee Pat Light of Monmouth features a 90-94 fastball and heavy two seamer around 90, but struggles with both of his off speed pitches. The Twins tend to love guys like this and there is a chance they could take him if he falls to them in the beginning of the 2nd round. So far this year he has given up 11 runs in 20 innings with just 11 k’s and 5 BB’s.

This was originally posted at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/ Stanford ace Mark Appel followed up his great start last week with a not so great one this week. While he went 8 innings and struck out 11, he gave 8 hits, two HR's and 7 runs in a 7-4 loss to Fresno State. Conor Glassery at Baseball America had a nice write up on him after the start that can be found here. While the amount of hard contact he gives up now is concerning, Appel can grow into a dominant starter if his command within the strike zone can improve. Florida State OF James Ramsey was 5-10 with a 2B, a 3B and his 4th homer of the season in a weekend sweep of Maine. Ramsey has gotten off to a solid start this year, but with teams most likely viewing him as a 4th outfielder I wonder if someone might try to move him to 2B his high school position. Brandon Kline of Virginia continues his transition to starter with an alright start this weekend against Seton Hall. He went 6 innings again with 6 k's and 3 bb's, he gave up 4 runs, but only 1 was earned, on 5 hits. Kline continues to intrigue me due to his fastball/slider combo and his ability to generate ground balls. He could end up in the bullpen in the majors, but has the stuff to be a legitimate weapon in the late innings. Oklahoma State's Andrew Heaney continued his good start with another very good outing against TCU on Friday night. He gave up only 2 runs on 6 hits over 6.2 innings with 9 k's and 3 bb's in a 4-2 win. Heaney, who was demoted to the bullpen in the middle of last year, has really built upon his success he had on the Cape, and is looking like a sure bet to be taken in the supplemental round at this point. Arkansas closer Nolan Sanburn threw 6 innings with 11 k's this week, but gave up 7 hits and 2 runs in his three appearances. Razorback starter D.J. Baxendale went just 5 innings in his start against Texas, but he gave up only 2 runs on 3 hits. On the year, he has given up only 4 earned runs in 17 innings with a 3:1 K:B ratio. Arizona State's Brady Rogers continued his sterling start to the season with a complete game against University of Saint Louis. He gave up just 4 hits and 1 unearned run while striking out 7 and walking just 2. He has yet to give up an earned run on the year and has a 12:1 K:BB ratio while giving up only 13 hits in 22 innings. Alex Wood of Georgia dominated Western Illinois on Friday night as he continues to prove he has recovered from Tommy John surgery. He went 8 innings giving up no runs and only 2 hits, he walked no one and struck out 14. If he continues to pitch well he could move into the top 50 picks in the draft. Another name to watch: Former Twins draftee Pat Light of Monmouth features a 90-94 fastball and heavy two seamer around 90, but struggles with both of his off speed pitches. The Twins tend to love guys like this and there is a chance they could take him if he falls to them in the beginning of the 2nd round. So far this year he has given up 11 runs in 20 innings with just 11 k’s and 5 BB’s.

How is Ryan acquiring Castillo not an example of him improving the team? I'll concede that Ryan was bs-ing when he said Casilla was ready, but what was he going to come out and say, that Luis Castillo's career was over? If you looked up the stats you would see that Casilla & Castillo have been pretty much the same player since the trade. Dont believe me look at the numbers? If you like paying 10x for similar production that’s your right, but I respect smart, savvy baseball moves. 08-11 G Triple Slash wOBA wRC+ UZR WAR $ Luis Castillo 315 .270/.366/.315 .318 94 -13.0 3.2 $24,750,000 Alexi Casilla 344 .257/.318/.351 .304 85 -4.2 2.7 $2,157,500 I wouldn’t call the Willingham signing low budget. He was appropriate market value for a guy who out-hit both Kubel and Cuddyer last year. Carrol’s signing was an overpay, if anything, and what other MI would you have preferred they sign? Do you think they should have paid $106M for Reyes? Ryan Doumit’s signing has been widely praised as one of the best signings of the off season. I am going to give Ryan credit for his free agency signings this year as this is the only year he has had 100m payroll to sign players with. If you think I am drinking koolaid that’s fine, but these are my conclusions that I came to after reading, researching, and calculating everything I could get my hands on. As a season ticket holder myself, I understand your frustration. I just think there a more positives to be excited about then to keep harping on negatives everyone has already heard and are tired of hearing about.

I am pleasantly surprised there haven’t been 10 comments about how Punto would have played through the concussion and that Morneau is a pansy. Maybe Souhan disciples haven’t infiltrated this site yet?

Example #23,322 of my point is stated above. In Minnesota, how can a player be arguably the best at his position for 5 straight years, lose one season rushing back from knee surgery, and still need to be defended. Mauer is a player of historic proportions at a position that is very tough on the body. Those are the facts. This level of delusion is scary. As for your Ryan accusation, in '01 he traded for Todd Jones when the team needed a later inning reliever, in 03' he traded for Shannon Stewart when the team was desperate for a leadoff hitter, and before '05 he traded for Luis Castillo when they really needed to solidify the MI. I understand if you want to argue he's never traded for a superstar, but Ryan has never operated a team with a budget over – maybe – 75 million. This year is his first offseason where he has had a decent budget. He aggressively addressed some large needs by spending money to get Carrol, Willingham, and Doumit. Again, read Seth's post here, and try to overcome your "coddle no more" rhetoric you probably picked up by reading too many Souhan columns.

High school game recaps are proving more difficult to come by, but I was able to find some information on each of the guys I have been intrigued by. Harvard-Westlake's Lucas Giolito has shown why he may be the first high school RHP ever taken first in the draft hitting 100 mph and striking out 8 in 6.1 in his last start. He only gave up one hit and walked no one, the Twins could be in a good position in that they can just take whichever pitcher Houston doesn't take at 1-1. Byron Buxton of Appling County HS in GA. starts his season tomorrow 3/1 and will begin to make his case to be the first prep position player to be taken in this years draft. Carroll HS, TX OF Courtney Hawkins and his team started out 1-0 this week and Hawkins even pitched an inning in the opening win. RHP Luke Sims of Brookwood HS, GA gets started later today and we'll hopefully have his results next week. Olympia HS, FL 1B/OF Jesse Winker led his team to a walk off win over Lake Howell to improve to 7-0. He followed that game up with a couple of hits against Edgewater. Staying in the same region, Hagerty HS, FL RHP Zach Eflin started his season off with a short start, but had 6 k's in 3 innings. I think Eflin is a pitcher to keep an eye on as we head up to the draft. He could be a nice high reward pick in 2nd round if he doesn't improve his stock over the course of the spring. Massive RHP Taylore Cherry of Butler HS, OH doesnt start his season until march 24th. D.J. Davis of Stone HS, MS has shown his trademark plate discipline with a 3/1 BB/K ratio despite only going 2-7 in his first week. His full stats can be found here.

High school game recaps are proving more difficult to come by, but I was able to find some information on each of the guys I have been intrigued by. Harvard-Westlake's Lucas Giolito has shown why he may be the first high school RHP ever taken first in the draft hitting 100 mph and striking out 8 in 6.1 in his last start. He only gave up one hit and walked no one, the Twins could be in a good position in that they can just take whichever pitcher Houston doesn't take at 1-1. Byron Buxton of Appling County HS in GA. starts his season tomorrow 3/1 and will begin to make his case to be the first prep position player to be taken in this years draft. Carroll HS, TX OF Courtney Hawkins and his team started out 1-0 this week and Hawkins even pitched an inning in the opening win. RHP Luke Sims of Brookwood HS, GA gets started later today and we'll hopefully have his results next week. Olympia HS, FL 1B/OF Jesse Winker led his team to a walk off win over Lake Howell to improve to 7-0. He followed that game up with a couple of hits against Edgewater. Staying in the same region, Hagerty HS, FL RHP Zach Eflin started his season off with a short start, but had 6 k's in 3 innings. I think Eflin is a pitcher to keep an eye on as we head up to the draft. He could be a nice high reward pick in 2nd round if he doesn't improve his stock over the course of the spring. Massive RHP Taylore Cherry of Butler HS, OH doesnt start his season until march 24th. D.J. Davis of Stone HS, MS has shown his trademark plate discipline with a 3/1 BB/K ratio despite only going 2-7 in his first week. His full stats can be found here.

This will be the debut post in what I hope to be a weekly column updating the performances and scouting reports on prospects I believe are/should be on the Twins radar. I hope to have a high school round up posted later this week, but for now let’s start with the college prospects. Stats from Feb. 17th-26th Mark Appel has dominated much of the Twins draft coverage so far this winter and rightfully so. In his most recent start, he turned in possibly his best career performance going 7+ innings while allowing only 1 run on 3 hits. He struck out a career high 10 and walked only 3 in a 7-2 win against #7 Texas. If he consistently has starts like this the rest of the spring, he will be all but a guarantee to go 1-1 in the draft. Florida State outfielder James Ramsey had a fantastic first week hitting .563/.763/1.000 in 6 games against Hofstra, Jacksonville, and Florida International. The Twins took Ramsey in the 22nd round last year, and he turned down a 6 figure bonus offer from them to go back for his Sr. season. So far, he is carrying over his strong showing from the Cape this summer and looks poised to be taken at the latest in the early 2nd round. I had him as a good option for the Twins at #63, but if he continues to hit he may sneak into the supplemental round. Brandon Kline of Virginia had a rough start to his transition from closer to starter lasting only 4+ innings and giving up 5 runs, though only 1 was earned, against Boston College. He rebounded with a better start this past week against Monmouth going 6.1 innings giving up 3 runs on 6 hits. He struck out 5 and walked 3. Kline given his size and stuff is an intriguing prospect who could go high in the supplemental round, and could be an option for the Twins at #32 if he looks like he can stick as a starter. Oklahoma State Lefty Andrew Heaney was very good in his first start against Cal Poly, which I cover here. He was just as good, if not better, in his second start against Bowling Green. He went 7.1 giving up only 1 run while punching out 12. He did surrender 7 hits and 2 walks, but against the weaker competition was able to pitch around it. He has now struck out 22 in 14 innings, and is finally living up to some of his potential he showed coming out of high school. If he can keep it going into conference play, he may solidify his position as a supplemental round pick. Arkansas closer Nolan Sanburn has only thrown 3 innings so far this year with a couple of k's, but mid-90's fastball and power breaking ball would be a welcome addition to a farm system lacking power arms. He would most likely be available when the Twins pick at #42. Sanburn's teammate D.J. Baxendale, has started out well throwing 5 shutout innings against Villanova and 6.1 of three run ball against Valparaiso. He has 9 k's, 3 bb's, and has given up 9 hits in those 11 innings. As a command and control righty, he is the typical low ceiling, high floor pitcher the Twins love and he should be available when they pick at #72. Brady Rogers of Arizona State opened his season with a good outing against Western Michigan striking out 7 over 6 shutout innings. He followed that up with 7 more shutout innings and 9 k's against Cal-Riverside. Despite averaging more than a K per inning so far Rodgers is not known as a strikeout pitcher, but more of a control artist with mediocre stuff. He should be available when the Twins pick at #63 or if he slides to #72. Other names to watch: University of Georgia lefty Alex Wood could move up draft boards this spring if he can show he has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. Through 2 starts this season he has 12 k’s and only 1 bb in 12 innings. Cal Bear’s 2B Tony Renda could fill the Twins quota this year for drafting a short, “gritty” middle infielder in every single draft. He has started the year hitting .435/.552/.478 and currently profiles as a mid-2nd round pick. Kyle Hansen of St. John’s offers a ton of projection with his 6’8” frame and mid-90’s fastball, but has yet to show strong secondary stuff or consistency. He has started the year with 16 k’s and 4 bb's in 10 innings, and also currently profiles as a mid to late 2nd round pick.

This will be the debut post in what I hope to be a weekly column updating the performances and scouting reports on prospects I believe are/should be on the Twins radar. I hope to have a high school round up posted later this week, but for now let’s start with the college prospects. Stats from Feb. 17th-26th Mark Appel has dominated much of the Twins draft coverage so far this winter and rightfully so. In his most recent start, he turned in possibly his best career performance going 7+ innings while allowing only 1 run on 3 hits. He struck out a career high 10 and walked only 3 in a 7-2 win against #7 Texas. If he consistently has starts like this the rest of the spring, he will be all but a guarantee to go 1-1 in the draft. Florida State outfielder James Ramsey had a fantastic first week hitting .563/.763/1.000 in 6 games against Hofstra, Jacksonville, and Florida International. The Twins took Ramsey in the 22nd round last year, and he turned down a 6 figure bonus offer from them to go back for his Sr. season. So far, he is carrying over his strong showing from the Cape this summer and looks poised to be taken at the latest in the early 2nd round. I had him as a good option for the Twins at #63, but if he continues to hit he may sneak into the supplemental round. Brandon Kline of Virginia had a rough start to his transition from closer to starter lasting only 4+ innings and giving up 5 runs, though only 1 was earned, against Boston College. He rebounded with a better start this past week against Monmouth going 6.1 innings giving up 3 runs on 6 hits. He struck out 5 and walked 3. Kline given his size and stuff is an intriguing prospect who could go high in the supplemental round, and could be an option for the Twins at #32 if he looks like he can stick as a starter. Oklahoma State Lefty Andrew Heaney was very good in his first start against Cal Poly, which I cover here. He was just as good, if not better, in his second start against Bowling Green. He went 7.1 giving up only 1 run while punching out 12. He did surrender 7 hits and 2 walks, but against the weaker competition was able to pitch around it. He has now struck out 22 in 14 innings, and is finally living up to some of his potential he showed coming out of high school. If he can keep it going into conference play, he may solidify his position as a supplemental round pick. Arkansas closer Nolan Sanburn has only thrown 3 innings so far this year with a couple of k's, but mid-90's fastball and power breaking ball would be a welcome addition to a farm system lacking power arms. He would most likely be available when the Twins pick at #42. Sanburn's teammate D.J. Baxendale, has started out well throwing 5 shutout innings against Villanova and 6.1 of three run ball against Valparaiso. He has 9 k's, 3 bb's, and has given up 9 hits in those 11 innings. As a command and control righty, he is the typical low ceiling, high floor pitcher the Twins love and he should be available when they pick at #72. Brady Rogers of Arizona State opened his season with a good outing against Western Michigan striking out 7 over 6 shutout innings. He followed that up with 7 more shutout innings and 9 k's against Cal-Riverside. Despite averaging more than a K per inning so far Rodgers is not known as a strikeout pitcher, but more of a control artist with mediocre stuff. He should be available when the Twins pick at #63 or if he slides to #72. Other names to watch: University of Georgia lefty Alex Wood could move up draft boards this spring if he can show he has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. Through 2 starts this season he has 12 k’s and only 1 bb in 12 innings. Cal Bear’s 2B Tony Renda could fill the Twins quota this year for drafting a short, “gritty” middle infielder in every single draft. He has started the year hitting .435/.552/.478 and currently profiles as a mid-2nd round pick. Kyle Hansen of St. John’s offers a ton of projection with his 6’8” frame and mid-90’s fastball, but has yet to show strong secondary stuff or consistency. He has started the year with 16 k’s and 4 bb's in 10 innings, and also currently profiles as a mid to late 2nd round pick.

I agree if Appel continues this for the spring he is 1-1, at that point the Twins have to choose who ever they believe the best talent is. Whether that is Giolito, Buxton, Marrero, or someone else, they just have to take whoever they believe has the highest ceiling.

Well, it took all of two days for the first major injury of Twins’ spring training to impact the 2012 season. That’s even fast by the Twins’ 2011 standards. As most are now aware, Joel Zumaya’s MRI showed a torn ulnar collateral ligament and will be out for this season. I suppose it’s possible, maybe even likely, that he never throws an MLB pitch again. For those of you playing Zumaya Injury Bingo, does UCL surgery give you the win? The bigger question for me: Is it too early to worry about the depth of this team? Words by the metric ton have been spent in the blogosphere, newspapers, and other media on the significant injuries that took a toll on the team last season. I won’t belabor the specifics. I’m sick of thinking about the huge number of games missed that – in part – led to the most disappointing Twins season in recent memory, maybe ever. For me, however, it’s not hard to think about this season as one whose outcome sits on a narrow precipice. I can’t help but wonder if we haven’t been set up by the past offseason and a long-term rebuilding plan to have another season of games that are hard to watch. John Bonnes writes here about the gamble that Terry Ryan took in leaning on Zumaya alone to improve the bullpen. I think the Twins' took a similar stance by relying on less-than-solid players at most other positions. First Base: Morneau’s recent history, and his Friday comments, throw a concussion-like fog of suspicion over his future. What is our backup plan at first? Admittedly, we have other players that can play first – Mauer among them. But if Morneau is not ready this season, our depth quickly becomes an issue when moving Mauer out from behind the plate or Doumit from DH. Catcher: Even if Mauer isn’t out of the lineup, just moving him to another position means a large dropoff in production overall. Doumit was a good signing for the price, and I supported the move wholeheartedly, but I can not see Gardy using him as at catcher for large stretches of games. Know what that means? The Butt-era of so many hitting jokes would again be taking consistent cuts that make grandpa Jake Mauer cry in his Old Style. Short Stop: Jamie Carrol is – like – way old, man. How’s Levi Michael looking? I'm really not bashing the signing of Carrol. I like the way a healthy Carrol fits into this lineup, but beyond him there is not much help for the middle infield. Center Field: Denard Span (AKA “the Spaniard”) is saying all the right things in coming back from bouts of concussion symptoms and vertigo. However, Twins fans have become all too familiar with the lingering nature of head injuries. If Span misses time, who moves to the leadoff spot? The most likely candidate is Ben Revere – if last year is any indication *– but his .305 OBP in 478 plate appearances is slightly higher than Matt Tolbert’s career mark. This team isn’t designed to weather the loss of significant table setters, and Parker Haggeman wrote a nice piece on the 2011 Twins’ woes in getting on-base early in the order. I hate to be pessimistic this early in the season. Especially when my blog-mate just sold some hope so recently. I do, however, think that the top-end of the Twins’ potential success hinges on a lot of healthy players who may or may not be so. One of them threw his last 2012 pitch on Friday. Also, I’d like to apologize for the Matt Tolbert reference. That was just unnecessary today. This was originally posted by Jon at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/

Well, it took all of two days for the first major injury of Twins’ spring training to impact the 2012 season. That’s even fast by the Twins’ 2011 standards. As most are now aware, Joel Zumaya’s MRI showed a torn ulnar collateral ligament and will be out for this season. I suppose it’s possible, maybe even likely, that he never throws an MLB pitch again. For those of you playing Zumaya Injury Bingo, does UCL surgery give you the win? The bigger question for me: Is it too early to worry about the depth of this team? Words by the metric ton have been spent in the blogosphere, newspapers, and other media on the significant injuries that took a toll on the team last season. I won’t belabor the specifics. I’m sick of thinking about the huge number of games missed that – in part – led to the most disappointing Twins season in recent memory, maybe ever. For me, however, it’s not hard to think about this season as one whose outcome sits on a narrow precipice. I can’t help but wonder if we haven’t been set up by the past offseason and a long-term rebuilding plan to have another season of games that are hard to watch. John Bonnes writes here about the gamble that Terry Ryan took in leaning on Zumaya alone to improve the bullpen. I think the Twins' took a similar stance by relying on less-than-solid players at most other positions. First Base: Morneau’s recent history, and his Friday comments, throw a concussion-like fog of suspicion over his future. What is our backup plan at first? Admittedly, we have other players that can play first – Mauer among them. But if Morneau is not ready this season, our depth quickly becomes an issue when moving Mauer out from behind the plate or Doumit from DH. Catcher: Even if Mauer isn’t out of the lineup, just moving him to another position means a large dropoff in production overall. Doumit was a good signing for the price, and I supported the move wholeheartedly, but I can not see Gardy using him as at catcher for large stretches of games. Know what that means? The Butt-era of so many hitting jokes would again be taking consistent cuts that make grandpa Jake Mauer cry in his Old Style. Short Stop: Jamie Carrol is – like – way old, man. How’s Levi Michael looking? I'm really not bashing the signing of Carrol. I like the way a healthy Carrol fits into this lineup, but beyond him there is not much help for the middle infield. Center Field: Denard Span (AKA “the Spaniard”) is saying all the right things in coming back from bouts of concussion symptoms and vertigo. However, Twins fans have become all too familiar with the lingering nature of head injuries. If Span misses time, who moves to the leadoff spot? The most likely candidate is Ben Revere – if last year is any indication *– but his .305 OBP in 478 plate appearances is slightly higher than Matt Tolbert’s career mark. This team isn’t designed to weather the loss of significant table setters, and Parker Haggeman wrote a nice piece on the 2011 Twins’ woes in getting on-base early in the order. I hate to be pessimistic this early in the season. Especially when my blog-mate just sold some hope so recently. I do, however, think that the top-end of the Twins’ potential success hinges on a lot of healthy players who may or may not be so. One of them threw his last 2012 pitch on Friday. Also, I’d like to apologize for the Matt Tolbert reference. That was just unnecessary today. This was originally posted by Jon at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/

A-Rod was drafted in 93' and made his debut in'94

I dont know if we have to take an arm, I agree we have a desperate need for high end pitching prospects, but I think we have to take the best player available at #2 and whether that is is Giolito, Buxton, or Appel will be determined this spring. In my opinion, I would rank those three Giolito, Buxton, Appel and would be thrilled if the Twins land any of them.

The more I read on Giolito and Appel the more I lean towards Giolito, even if takes longer to be ready. I think 1 to 2 years would be extremely quick even for a guy like Giolito. I think realistically if he is up in 3-4 and that would be tremendous and a testament to what type of player he is

Keith Law of ESPN Scouts Inc. came out with the first edition of his Top 50 (Insider required) draft prospects, and had an interesting take that differed from just about every other site I have seen. The top player on his board was Georgia High School OF Byron Buxton, who I reviewed here, saying he has the “potential for five above-average or plus tools” and also echoing the comparisons to the Upton brothers I have heard elsewhere. Buxton does defiantly fit the Twins preferred draft mold as an athletic, toolsy high school OF and I think he is very in the mix for them when they draft #2 if he were available. More after the jump Another surprise was Law ranking High School RHP Lucas Giolito at #2 above Stanford righty Mark Appel saying Giolito has, “size, velocity, an out-pitch breaking ball, and a repeatable delivery”. Earlier this week, Law posted he thought Giolito could potentially be the first high school RHP ever taken 1st in the MLB draft, and was obviously impressed with him after watching him make his first start of 2012. He noted that, in that start, Giolito showed better fastball control and more aggressiveness attacking hitters than Law had seen from him previously. He also praised Giolito’s mechanics and compared him to Jameson Taillon, another big high school RHP who was drafted by the Pirates in 2010. He thinks Taillon has the edge on pure stuff with Giolito showing more polish with better mechanics, and think they would be a “toss-up” as to who the better prospect is (Taillon was #16 on Law’s Top 100 prospects). Appel, who made his first start last weekend as well, showed big velocity early on (up to 97) but tired in the later innings. He thought Appel’s slider was “inconsistent, but when he threw it in the 82-84 range it had some tilt and could project as an above-average pitch”. Appel also showed a solid change up, but Law thought he fell in love with it for a part of the game writing Appel was to the point where he was pitching backwards (throwing off-speed stuff first to set up the fastball) something strange for a power pitcher to do. Law’s biggest concerns with Appel are the continuing lack of K’s his major stuff produces (only 5 in 7 inn. against a young Vanderbilt lineup) and the ability of college hitters to consistently square up his fastball. If the slider doesn’t become more consistent and really turn into a plus bat missing pitch, Appel could struggle in the pros despite his big fastball. This was the first week for all these guys so there is a lot of time for players to raise or lower their stock in the coming months and I look forward to tracking each. A couple of other interesting notes from Law: *Missing from his top 50, and who was rated fairly highly everywhere else, is lefty Andrew Heaney from Oklahoma State and who I wrote about here. *Law was also a lot higher on Zach Eflin, who I pegged as a solid option for the Twins at #63, ranking him #23 overall so it will be interesting to follow his progress this spring as well. I plan to try to have regular updates of the prospective draft pick’s I’ve covered on this blog, and others that appear to be on the Twins radar, as we go through the spring and up to draft day. This was orginally posted at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/

Keith Law of ESPN Scouts Inc. came out with the first edition of his Top 50 (Insider required) draft prospects, and had an interesting take that differed from just about every other site I have seen. The top player on his board was Georgia High School OF Byron Buxton, who I reviewed here, saying he has the “potential for five above-average or plus tools” and also echoing the comparisons to the Upton brothers I have heard elsewhere. Buxton does defiantly fit the Twins preferred draft mold as an athletic, toolsy high school OF and I think he is very in the mix for them when they draft #2 if he were available. More after the jump Another surprise was Law ranking High School RHP Lucas Giolito at #2 above Stanford righty Mark Appel saying Giolito has, “size, velocity, an out-pitch breaking ball, and a repeatable delivery”. Earlier this week, Law posted he thought Giolito could potentially be the first high school RHP ever taken 1st in the MLB draft, and was obviously impressed with him after watching him make his first start of 2012. He noted that, in that start, Giolito showed better fastball control and more aggressiveness attacking hitters than Law had seen from him previously. He also praised Giolito’s mechanics and compared him to Jameson Taillon, another big high school RHP who was drafted by the Pirates in 2010. He thinks Taillon has the edge on pure stuff with Giolito showing more polish with better mechanics, and think they would be a “toss-up” as to who the better prospect is (Taillon was #16 on Law’s Top 100 prospects). Appel, who made his first start last weekend as well, showed big velocity early on (up to 97) but tired in the later innings. He thought Appel’s slider was “inconsistent, but when he threw it in the 82-84 range it had some tilt and could project as an above-average pitch”. Appel also showed a solid change up, but Law thought he fell in love with it for a part of the game writing Appel was to the point where he was pitching backwards (throwing off-speed stuff first to set up the fastball) something strange for a power pitcher to do. Law’s biggest concerns with Appel are the continuing lack of K’s his major stuff produces (only 5 in 7 inn. against a young Vanderbilt lineup) and the ability of college hitters to consistently square up his fastball. If the slider doesn’t become more consistent and really turn into a plus bat missing pitch, Appel could struggle in the pros despite his big fastball. This was the first week for all these guys so there is a lot of time for players to raise or lower their stock in the coming months and I look forward to tracking each. A couple of other interesting notes from Law: *Missing from his top 50, and who was rated fairly highly everywhere else, is lefty Andrew Heaney from Oklahoma State and who I wrote about here. *Law was also a lot higher on Zach Eflin, who I pegged as a solid option for the Twins at #63, ranking him #23 overall so it will be interesting to follow his progress this spring as well. I plan to try to have regular updates of the prospective draft pick’s I’ve covered on this blog, and others that appear to be on the Twins radar, as we go through the spring and up to draft day. This was orginally posted at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/

So what’s a surefire way to make sure no one ever reads your new blog again? Well, why not call out some of the fan base for what I feel has been questionable, if not irrational behavior. I was just as frustrated as every other fan with this past Twins season, but I still do not think it justifies the amount of vitriol I have read in various comment sections, newspapers, discussed with friends, and listened to on the radio. The two biggest issues everyone seems to have are the misconceptions that the Twins are cheap and that Joe Mauer is nothing more than a bad contract and a lazy, characterless disappointment. First, I'll tackle the claim that the Twins are cheap. It is a fact the Twins have "slashed" payroll all the way down to a mere pedestrian 100 million dollars. It seems like just a few years ago everyone was begging for the Twins to stretch the payroll too the 100 million plateau and now that they are doing that it’s not good enough. How much would they have to spend for the Twins to no longer be considered cheap? 115m? 130m? Do they have to outspend the Yankees? or the Red Sox? I'll admit when I first heard they may be cutting back payroll, I didn’t agree with it. Then I started doing my research, trying to look at the big picture for the upcoming season, and the next season or two down the road. After that, I came to the conclusion that it did not make any sense for the Twins to spend another 15m right now for a few reasons. First off, as Seth Stohs pointed out here, the Twins just have way too many "if's" to justify extending themselves further at this time. If Mauer, Morneau, Span, Valencia, Revere, Casilla, Baker, Liriano, Capps and the rest of the Bullpen, and Blackburn (who No Dak Twins Fan covered here) don't all rebound, improve, and/or stay healthy the Twins have zero chance of competing no matter how much more payroll the team adds. I think Seth nailed it, if the Twins have a first solid couple of months and some of those "ifs" fall the right way the Twins have the payroll flexibility to make a move or two at the deadline. If those "ifs" don’t fall their way then they have not compromised their flexibility for next year when they are possibly replacing 4/5th of their starting rotation. Secondly, in the first two + seasons at Target Field the Twins have given out a $184 million dollar contract which at the time was the 4th largest in MLB history. They gave out the largest free agent contract in team history to Josh Willingham this offseason, which I think has been under praised as they got the best hitter between Kubel, Cuddyer, and Willingham for the lowest average annual salary. That's not cheap, that's a savvy baseball move and a move they should be praised for. They addressed the SS position in a bad market for the position with a solid, unspectacular move, but also didn’t turn it over to an unproven AAA player. These are the type of moves the team never would have made in the Metrodome and a sign they are becoming more of a player in free agency. Finally, I think the Twins realized that the free agent market this offseason and their needs did not match up all that strongly. Only one impact middle infielder was on the market and I am glad the Twins stayed away from Jose Reyes. I didn’t consider any of the SP's available this year to be tremendous upgrades, and with money already committed to 4 starters this year it didn't make sense in the long run to overpay number #3 types to be our ace. I do believe the Twins should have added another right handed reliever and in that regards, maybe they were being cheap. Though it’s not like any of those cheap veteran relievers available for 1 million or so are lock down set up men, and are guaranteed to be better than what is already in camp. It’s because of these reasons that I think calling the Twins cheap just sounds like a lazy excuse to be bitter about the disaster of a year the team had 2011. As far as the Joe Mauer bashing, I am starting to be embarrassed to associate my fandom with some fans and "experts" with the amount of bizarre hatred Mauer has received. Mauer has had his injury problems, but since his first full season in the league Mauer has caught the 6th most innings of any catcher in the majors. He has been arguable the best offensive catcher over that time period and has won 3 batting titles, 2 Silver Sluggers, and a MVP award. Last year, he had an off season surgery, rushed himself to be ready for opening day, obviously wasn't ready, made it worse, and the injury communication was poorly handled by the team and Mauer. He is not without blame and has made strides to be accountable this offseason, but does any of that really deserve him the treatment he has been receiving? I hardly think so and have yet to receive a solid explanation from anyone other than general hearsay and gossip which apparently is reliable enough material to publish these days. (I'm looking at you Souhan.) So I am calling out Twins fans to forget 2011, it happened there is nothing we can do about it now. Let's move on to 2012, where hopefully the Twins make a return to respectability and Mauer shuts up all of his critics with his sweet left handed swing. I'm selling hope, now whose buying? The Twins Armchair GM This was origanally posted at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/

So what’s a surefire way to make sure no one ever reads your new blog again? Well, why not call out some of the fan base for what I feel has been questionable, if not irrational behavior. I was just as frustrated as every other fan with this past Twins season, but I still do not think it justifies the amount of vitriol I have read in various comment sections, newspapers, discussed with friends, and listened to on the radio. The two biggest issues everyone seems to have are the misconceptions that the Twins are cheap and that Joe Mauer is nothing more than a bad contract and a lazy, characterless disappointment. First, I'll tackle the claim that the Twins are cheap. It is a fact the Twins have "slashed" payroll all the way down to a mere pedestrian 100 million dollars. It seems like just a few years ago everyone was begging for the Twins to stretch the payroll too the 100 million plateau and now that they are doing that it’s not good enough. How much would they have to spend for the Twins to no longer be considered cheap? 115m? 130m? Do they have to outspend the Yankees? or the Red Sox? I'll admit when I first heard they may be cutting back payroll, I didn’t agree with it. Then I started doing my research, trying to look at the big picture for the upcoming season, and the next season or two down the road. After that, I came to the conclusion that it did not make any sense for the Twins to spend another 15m right now for a few reasons. First off, as Seth Stohs pointed out here, the Twins just have way too many "if's" to justify extending themselves further at this time. If Mauer, Morneau, Span, Valencia, Revere, Casilla, Baker, Liriano, Capps and the rest of the Bullpen, and Blackburn (who No Dak Twins Fan covered here) don't all rebound, improve, and/or stay healthy the Twins have zero chance of competing no matter how much more payroll the team adds. I think Seth nailed it, if the Twins have a first solid couple of months and some of those "ifs" fall the right way the Twins have the payroll flexibility to make a move or two at the deadline. If those "ifs" don’t fall their way then they have not compromised their flexibility for next year when they are possibly replacing 4/5th of their starting rotation. Secondly, in the first two + seasons at Target Field the Twins have given out a $184 million dollar contract which at the time was the 4th largest in MLB history. They gave out the largest free agent contract in team history to Josh Willingham this offseason, which I think has been under praised as they got the best hitter between Kubel, Cuddyer, and Willingham for the lowest average annual salary. That's not cheap, that's a savvy baseball move and a move they should be praised for. They addressed the SS position in a bad market for the position with a solid, unspectacular move, but also didn’t turn it over to an unproven AAA player. These are the type of moves the team never would have made in the Metrodome and a sign they are becoming more of a player in free agency. Finally, I think the Twins realized that the free agent market this offseason and their needs did not match up all that strongly. Only one impact middle infielder was on the market and I am glad the Twins stayed away from Jose Reyes. I didn’t consider any of the SP's available this year to be tremendous upgrades, and with money already committed to 4 starters this year it didn't make sense in the long run to overpay number #3 types to be our ace. I do believe the Twins should have added another right handed reliever and in that regards, maybe they were being cheap. Though it’s not like any of those cheap veteran relievers available for 1 million or so are lock down set up men, and are guaranteed to be better than what is already in camp. It’s because of these reasons that I think calling the Twins cheap just sounds like a lazy excuse to be bitter about the disaster of a year the team had 2011. As far as the Joe Mauer bashing, I am starting to be embarrassed to associate my fandom with some fans and "experts" with the amount of bizarre hatred Mauer has received. Mauer has had his injury problems, but since his first full season in the league Mauer has caught the 6th most innings of any catcher in the majors. He has been arguable the best offensive catcher over that time period and has won 3 batting titles, 2 Silver Sluggers, and a MVP award. Last year, he had an off season surgery, rushed himself to be ready for opening day, obviously wasn't ready, made it worse, and the injury communication was poorly handled by the team and Mauer. He is not without blame and has made strides to be accountable this offseason, but does any of that really deserve him the treatment he has been receiving? I hardly think so and have yet to receive a solid explanation from anyone other than general hearsay and gossip which apparently is reliable enough material to publish these days. (I'm looking at you Souhan.) So I am calling out Twins fans to forget 2011, it happened there is nothing we can do about it now. Let's move on to 2012, where hopefully the Twins make a return to respectability and Mauer shuts up all of his critics with his sweet left handed swing. I'm selling hope, now whose buying? The Twins Armchair GM This was origanally posted at http://thetwinsarmchairgm.blogspot.com/