I'd pay Berrios if that number doesn't go above the 17-18 per year range. 4 year 72, or 5-85 seems like a fair number. If he wants more, I would look at moving him. The trade market for starting pitching this year is incredibly thin, and 1.5 years of control for Berrios would bring back great value. If we could get a major league ready starter or someone close with a skillset equivalent to Manoah (Had he been in the minors still, maybe the Jays would have moved him, but now that he has had some success in the majors can't imagine they will now), and 1 or 2 other decent players that have a chance to be a starter down the road and/or a good bullpen piece, it would be hard to say no. If you trade Berrios though, you have to end up with one of the top free agent pitchers. Per spotrac, Scherzer's market value will be 1 year 29 mil. If you can entice him with more years but less AAV (Maybe 3 year 66 mil?) that would be big. I believe Scherzer will be better than Berrios over the next 3 years, and if he regresses, he may be around Berrios' career averages. A 3 year contract for Scherzer would free up more money to maybe backload a deal for Buxton. Of course, there is the possibility no big free agent starter may want to come here. If you believe that you can't lure any starter, than you probably have to overpay Berrios.