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Everything posted by twins1095

  1. twins1095
    Larnach/Rooker/Kirilloff/Arraez and Polanco are helping me stomach the struggles of Lewis/Javier
  2. twins1095
    He's graded averagely this year. His defensive score, for whatever you take that is worth ~-0.2. Rosario's is -6ish. Other than 1 year, Sano has graded anywhere from just below average to average at 3B (above average his rookie year). I'm not sure it's fair to say that...it could mean that, but I think that discounts a lot of hard work and development done before the majors. Sano may have simply reached the top of his skillset sooner... It could be that he's more naturally talented in some ways. Regardless, it's irrelevant when looking at how productive a player is now if it took him 5 years to get there or he was there from Day 1. Either way, he is that player. The rest is an emotional reaction to a feeling that you have around a figurative word called "potential". Further, if we do want to say that Kepler/Rosario have topped out their ceiling while Sano has been at that level since Day 1 and has not topped out his...how great is it to have a Kepler/Rosario level hitter with the potential that he could be even better one day down the road if he ever puts it all together?
  3. twins1095
    I have consistently acknowledged that the analysis earlier in this post and in my other comments and posts about Sano regard his production on the field when healthy. It is 100% fair to criticize and question his ability to stay healthy. What is not fair, is the Twins fans who will make comments about Sano's production that are based in a biased reaction to a certain style of play instead of production to a team. I would also argue to some extent that his injury concerns will price down his next contract compared to his actual production which would be good value.
  4. twins1095
    Meh. None of the 3 player important defensive positions. Rosario grades as an extremely negative defender. Kepler actually does grade well especially with his ability to play CF in a pinch, so I might give you that. Not sure any of the 3 are really enough of difference makers to push the needle in any way defensively, especially since Sano has made himself into something of an average or close to average defender at 3rd. Sano and Rosario actually have the same fwar despite Sano playing about half the games largely due to Rosario's defensive ineptitude.
  5. twins1095
    I think that is a emotional bias reaction. It's penalizing Sano for developing earlier than the other two. To be fair, I know what you're trying to say is that you are criticizing him for not reaching his proverbial ceiling. However, whatever way you slice it... the 3 are similar level of players (in a good way). You can't knock Sano for being that level of player and call for his head while also praising Rosario and Kepler for being that same level of player. That does not make any sense. I don't think it's fair to say that it's an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance that he doesn't need to get better. I think that's a projection. I hope Sano can figure out how to take some steps forward and find a higher level of play. I think he will if he can stay healthy for a consistent stretch of time. However, do not let emotional biases distract you from player value--emotional biases.
  6. twins1095
    Probably Cron. If Kirillof keeps up his recent play and continues his trajectory he'll probably be knocking at the door midseason next year... Cron will be 30. Rosario 27. Honestly, he'd be a nice candidate to settle in as a DH as a replacement for Cruz. Either that, or push another player to DH if he's a better fielder...I don't think he is. Can we teach him to play 3rd?
  7. twins1095
    I think there is always going to be some level of streakiness. Both Rosario and Kepler have had and do have multiple streaks of 8-50 type runs throughout the season. It's the nature of the game. There's just more of a focus on Sano because of how bad his bad streaks are with the strikeouts that get even more pronounced.
  8. twins1095
    Definitely. This is an exercise of showing per game production when healthy. In the NBA they display points by PPG, in the MLB I think the equivalent of that is pace per 162 games. The point being that besides some general streakiness, that Rosario and to some extent Kepler also possess, the issue is not Sano's production when healthy. It is fair to question Sano's ability to stay healthy. With that being said, Sano has performed at this level (.320-.340 OBP / 40 HR / 30 2B / 100 runs / 100+ rbi) at a per 162 game pace his whole career. This is essentially Kepler's first year where he's taken that jump. There is something to that as well, although it also shows that Sano has not really improved since entering the majors. With that being said, some of that lack of improvement may be due to the constant injuries and having to rehab from injuries and never really being able to have a full stable season and a chance to really focus on some of those problem areas. Further, Sano's career average for OBP is essentially at where Kepler is at now in his career year. The overall point in terms of the exercise is a proof that Sano's issues in striking out do not KEEP him from being at the level of Rosario/Kepler and our other young stars. Sano's production this year is not new. The strikeouts KEEP him from being a level above that and entering the true superstar territory. Sano may or may not make adjustments and figure out on how to cut down the strikeouts by a standard deviation or two, but this exercise should peg the debate where it truly should be at as a reflection of Sano's actual production now versus where it could be if he could cut down the strikeouts. I think it would be unwise to give up on a player who's as productive as Sano and who still has the potential to reach another level because the strikeouts, swing and misses, and style of play looks ugly at times. It's important to start with the data and work opinions from the data and based in the data. I am hoping this exercise pegs the debate in a better place.
  9. twins1095
    Sano's numbers if evened to Rosario/Cruz PA levels: 225 times on base - Sano's numbers if evened to Kepler PA levels: 232 times on base
  10. twins1095
    Update: Player A (Rosario): .312 OBP - .841 OPS110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIsProjected to get on base 218 times during 162 games3.45 pitches per plate appearance - 700 PAs per 162 game Player B (Sano): .321 OBP - .896 OPS113 runs - 37 2B - 4 3B - 53 HRs (94 total XBH) - 97 RBIsProjected to get on base 219 times per 162 games4.40 pitchers per plate appearance - 680 PAs per 162 games Player C: (Kepler) .337 OBP - .860 OPS110 runs - 42 2B - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 110 RBIProjected to get on base 243 times per 162 games3.56 pitches per plate appearance - 721 PAs per 162 gamesPlayer D (Cruz) .367 OBP - .921 OPS97 runs - 42 2Bs - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 120 RBIsProjected to get on base 256 times per 162 games4.22 pitches per plate appearance - 698 PAs
  11. twins1095
    Again, fair take. Thanks for the response. That’s the overall sort of back and forth thought analysis and take I was hoping other posters would get out of the exercise. The overall output between the two players is essentially the same. Player A does get on base more and drive in slightly more runs. Player B has more power. The RBI difference is somewhat buoyed by the differences in spot in the order. The differences in amount of times on base between the two, especially if you even out the play appearances, is marginal (Player A gets on base on average 1 more time per ~40 games). Player A is Rosario’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games. Player B is Sano’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games. Interesting contextual thought exercise because one gets a lot more criticism than the other. Sano’s power numbers will likely come down to a Rosario like level but I think his OBP and average based on his career averages will come up slightly to .240s / .330s so he could actually get on base more than Rosario. Even if it doesn’t come up that high, it should slightly come up to Rosario’s levels. Again, little bit of opinion in this last part but output differences between the two are interesting to look at outside of the noise and bias from the eye test on styles of play.
  12. twins1095
    Fair answer. More scenario information: Player A’s most used spot in the lineup is say 4th. Player B’s is say 7th. Some of the rbi difference can be explained by better hitters on base in front of Player A and more protection behind. That being said, Player A has more pressure to produce. Does that change your answer at all?
  13. twins1095
    Let's do a little player comparison using current 2019 season averages per 162 games (to get an idea of per game production). Player A... .312 OBP - .841 OPS110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIsProjected to get on base 218 times during 162 games 4.32 PA per game / 3.45 pitches per plate appearance / 698 PAs per 162 game Player B... .306 OBP - .883 OPS111 runs - 32 2B - 60 HRs (92 total XBH) - 111 RBIs Projected to get on base 208 times during 162 games4.2 PAs per game / 4.35 pitches per AB / 680 PAs per 162 gamesProjected to get on base 214 times with 114 rbis and runs if you even out PAs Which player would you take and why? How much more valuable is that player than the other player you didn't choose to take?
  14. twins1095
    Big fan of this pick as well. Massive power, maybe as much as any prospect in this draft. He may strike out a decent amount, but that's really only a problem if the approach isn't good enough to play. He walks a TON as well. To me that shows he will work deep into counts and will find himself in more advantageous situations. Plus the power skills play even with weaker contact skills if he can walk enough to still get on base at a high clip. OBP + Power is the tool I would always approach. To me that shows approach/plate discipline + ability to drive the ball and drive in runs. That's the formula.
  15. twins1095
    Posted this in the draft thread, but thought I would also post here: Big fan of this pick. Disagree that the delivery is a negative unless there are injury concerns. I have yet to see an explanation or read about why there should be. Baseball America rated him as the best control in the country pre-draft. He repeats his mechanics and can control the ball. His delivery makes it hard to read over his hand and his over the top delivery creates a really nice downward plane and will lead to a lot of ground ball outs and the downward movement you see on his spike curve as well as some of the movement you see on his fastball. Sure, he’ll refine his delivery like any pitcher but I think the funky delivery is a plus until it’s proven not to be rather than the other way around. The only real argument I’ve seen for changing it is that it seems like something to do because it looks different than prototype, which isn’t actually a reason at all unless that difference in pitching motion is causing control issues through unrepeatablility or injury concerns. I think he’s going to be a starter of the good Odorizzi or Gibson version. Really excited. Here’s a good article I found with a nice profile: https://www.google.c...-matt-canterino A couple of quotes from that article: **Canterino also does the little things to help his cause, including having an above-average pickoff move. However, there’s still a concern that he may eventually be a reliever. Why should this be a concern, when he’s get the build, control, athleticism and repertoire to be successful as a starter? Rice does have a history of its pitchers breaking down physically at the professional level. More than that, however, it’s due to his unorthodox, high-effort delivery with a head jerk. It is that delivery, however, that just may give him the deception he needs at the professional level to help supplement good, albeit unsensational, stuff.** **One side note — in Baseball America’s preseason list of loudest tools, Canterino was listed as having the best control. Certainly after looking at his results over the past couple seasons, it’s difficult to refute that analysis.**
  16. twins1095
    Big fan of this pick. Disagree that the delivery is a negative unless there are injury concerns. I have yet to see an explanation or read about why there should be. Baseball America rated him as the best control in the country pre-draft. He repeats his mechanics and can control the ball. His delivery makes it hard to read over his hand and his over the top delivery creates a really nice downward plane and will lead to a lot of ground ball outs and the downward movement you see on his spike curve as well as some of the movement you see on his fastball. Sure, he’ll refine his delivery like any pitcher but I think the funky delivery is a plus until it’s proven not to be rather than the other way around. The only real argument I’ve seen for changing it is that it seems like something to do because it looks different than prototype, which isn’t actually a reason at all unless that difference in pitching motion is causing control issues through unrepeatablility or injury concerns. I think he’s going to be a starter of the good Odorizzi or Gibson version. Really excited. Here’s a good article I found with a nice profile: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.southsidesox.com/platform/amp/2019/5/7/18236648/matt-canterino-draft-prospects-you-should-know-matt-canterino A couple of quotes from that article: **Canterino also does the little things to help his cause, including having an above-average pickoff move. However, there’s still a concern that he may eventually be a reliever. Why should this be a concern, when he’s get the build, control, athleticism and repertoire to be successful as a starter? Rice does have a history of its pitchers breaking down physically at the professional level. More than that, however, it’s due to his unorthodox, high-effort delivery with a head jerk. It is that delivery, however, that just may give him the deception he needs at the professional level to help supplement good, albeit unsensational, stuff.** **One side note — in Baseball America’s preseason list of loudest tools, Canterino was listed as having the best control. Certainly after looking at his results over the past couple seasons, it’s difficult to refute that analysis.**
  17. twins1095
    Larnach is impressing thus far in his major league career. I hope the Twins are aggressive with him. He should be up in AA by all star break if he continues to produce.
  18. twins1095
    They are pretty much polar opposites in everything from pitching style to build. I may be missing sarcasm because there probably couldn't be two pitchers more different. The only thing they have some similarity in is maybe the pitching motion and the way that motion kind of hides the ball and slings around their body before reaching their release point causing hitters to struggle to time pitches well.
  19. twins1095
    Isn't it also a fallacy to assume that he's producing because he's in the 9th spot in the order? If so, why was he not producing in the past at that spot in order? If you agree that that argument doesn't hold water, that means it's other changes he has made that are causing the positive performance. If it's other changes that have led to more positive performance, those other changes hold true irrespective of spot in the order. His new swing is not effective or not effective because he's 9th or 8th or any spot in the order. His new swing is working because he made changes that are leading to him being able to be more successful. If you move Buxton up and all of a sudden his mechanics change and the leg kick is back and the hand placement changes revert... his lack of success won't be due to a spot in the order change... it will be due to a reversion of mechanics. Now, I'm not calling for the Twins to move Buxton up yet and do actually agree that they should keep him in the 9 spot simply from the standpoint of Buxton being on base for the top of the order and a lineup construction that puts a lot of punch into the top couple of spots.... If anything...with Sano healthy I would double down on the power at the top of the order strategy given Buxton's success. Put Polanco/Cruz/Sano/Rosario/Kepler/Cron behind Buxton and in every other situation except the first it's basically Buxton (1), Polanco (2) followed up by the big boys with protection behind Sano to prevent pitchers from throwing junk his way.
  20. twins1095
    Perks of quoting from memory. Point being the power has still played. His OBP was in the low to mid .340s before last season. Tough to say an injury plagued half season sandwiched with a lot of time playing obviously injured is truly indicative of a previous sample of 1300 plate appearances. Further, he's consistently had an OBP roughly 90 points higher than his average over his career and through those 1300 plate appearances he has a BABIP of ~.360. His BABIP last season was ~.280. Normalize the BABIP to his career norm, the average and BABIP normalizes to roughly the career norm as well and gets him into the .340-.350 OBP range. The strikeouts are noise and not liking the strikeouts are purely a style of play preference. You missed the point with the almost HR comment. The point was the exit velocity. Of course, he's a flyball hitter and he's going to hit a lot of fly ball outs when he does put it into play. The important takeaway is that when he does put the ball in play he hits it hard. Some of those will be flyouts...a lot of them will be XBH's. The 162 game pace is not a if he can do it. That is literally his 162 game pace for his career including his bad season last season, although I did touch up his OBP from .335 to .340-.350 to reflect what I consider a half season not truly reflective of what Miguel Sano normalizes at given his career numbers and the injuries he was facing. The concerns you note are what prevents Sano's per game pace from being even better than that...not what prevents Sano's per game production from being at that level. Further, even at a .335 OBP, he still has a higher career OBP than anyone on the team not named Cruz and Polanco. Polanco's career high OBP is .345. Sano has had seasons of .352 and .380 OBPs. Cron, Rosario, Kepler have never even hit .330 OBP which is Sano's career average. Schoop has done it once and had plenty of seasons below .300 OBP. So basically, Sano gets on base as much as anyone not named Cruz and hits for more power than anyone not named Cruz, drives in more runs per game than anyone not named Cruz, and as many runs per game as essentially anyone on the Twins. That is what his production is now with all of the flaws in his game. That is not the level his flaws prevent him for reaching. That is not an opinion.
  21. twins1095
    The first AB was bad...but hitters are hitting ~.100 against Pena curveballs on the year and he was not the only one to take bad swings on that pitch. In his next 2 ABs he just got under balls that otherwise would have been HRs and had exit velocity's of 94 MPH and 100 MPH. He also fouled another 100+ MPH exit velocity rope down the line that would have been a double if fair. Last AB he hit a HR. He's gonna miss some pitches and strike out a lot, but he will also get on base as much as any other Twins hitter and approach a 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100 RBI .340-.350 OBP pace per 162 games (those are his career averages per 162 games). His K rate is only an issue if it prevents him from getting 30 2B / 35-40 HR /100ish RBI and a .340ish OBP per 162g. He hasn't had a spring training and is going to have to get his timing up to speed. Sano's K issues will be even more prominent during that period of time before ticking down to ~30%. Be patient. Again, a healthy Sano will hit 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100+ RBI with a .340+ OBP. Those numbers would all rank top 2-3 on the team. Even though he strikes out, he gets on base as much or more than most other Twins hitters.
  22. twins1095
    I’m fine with him staying where he is for a few more weeks to continue to allow him to build moment in a low stress way. I do like playing around with some ideas that I think we could see as the season goes on if Buxton can continue to hit .265+ or so. - Leadoff against LHPs. Baldelli has explored moving Kepler down against LHPs. Could be a nice strategy to give Buxton a feel for the leadoff spot and see how he handles it. -#7? when the roster is healthy, against RHPs Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Cruz, Cron, Buxton, Garver, Schoop That would be interesting. Buxton, Polanco, Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Cron, Garver, Schoop looks DEEP.
  23. twins1095
    Based on what evidence, other than a "feeling", do you base this conjecture on?
  24. twins1095
    What does not sell you on Sano as a long-term everyday option in the event that he's healthy? If you're worried about his ability to stay healthy on a consistent basis, that's fair. However, that takes out the controversy. Miguel Sano's career OPS is .813. His career averages per 162 games are 35 HRs - 100 RBIs - 30 2Bs - 90 runs - .336 OBP. That includes his awful injury filled half season last year. Before that his numbers per 162 were ~ .350 obp - 40 HR - 35 2B - 110 RBIs - 100 runs. Nelson Cruz is the only active Twin who gets on base more in terms of career averages. Cruz is also the only guy who rivals Sano in terms of power production or run producing potential. Questioning Sano's ability to stay healthy is fair, suggesting that he falls short of the Miguel Cabrera type player some hoped him to be is also fair, not liking his style of play is fair too. However, questioning his overall body of work in terms of production when on the field is disingenuous. End of story. For me, it's hard to put a ton of stock into Sano slumping and playing through injuries before shutting things down as the true value of his production over the previous sample of 1200 ABs. We have seen already with Buxton how much stock should be put into injury-ridden small sample sizes. Sano is held to a different standard by Twins fans because of what he can be and what he already is, is often forgotten. Even last season, Sano at his worst is essentially a slightly better of the current version of CJ Cron. Again that is a slumping/injuried/not 100% Sano versus a 100% Cron. Use that measure to put things into perspective. The idea that adding Sano to the 4/5 spot in this lineup won't immediately and dramatically improve the teams offensive depth and ceiling is objectively absurd. __________________________________________________________________ There are very real questions about Sano's long-term future due to his injury issues likely stemming in large part from weight issues stemming from lifestyle choices that lend to the idea that he's a player that lacks maturity, focus, and work-ethic. However, despite those very real truths the production and body of work he's put up over a 1400 plate appearance sample (and especially over his first 1200 plate appearances) speaks for itself and should not be discounted or minimized.
  25. twins1095
    I like the combination of the 94-96 4 seam high, an 88-90 mph cutter with some run and downward action, and an 85-86 mph changeup with some downward and run action. 3 different pitch speeds/movements all thrown out of the same arm angle. If he can locate that and then mix in the curve as well to keep hitters honest...that's pretty dangerous and repeatable.
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