ChiefsKid

The Twins absolutely needed starting pitching. And a lot of it. Pretty simple to me, they don't view Graterol as a starter. Of the class of prospects that got their feet wet in 2019, he's got the best 'stuff'. If they thought he was ever gonna be a starter I don't see the value in trading him for Maeda. Once the Donaldson deal got done (which I absolutely love, btw), money got a little tight. Giving up Brusdar stings a little, but getting Maeda essentially paid for this year is pretty good value back for the Twins. Berrios Odorizzi Maeda Pineda Hill Bailey Chacin If only half of these guys catch fire, its gonna be a much better rotation than the last few years. Odorizzi is on one of those 'I need to earn my one big contract' years. And also, somehow the lineup is seemingly better than last year, if that's possible. And(!) Bringing in Clippard and resigning Romo deepens the bullpen. I was pretty harsh and skeptical of the FO when Ryu went elsewhere. But I'll gladly eat the crow here and give credit where credit is due. Quite a bit was done this offseason and I'm pretty impressed. This specific trade probably gets a B+, overall offseason gets a solid A from me.

Tough to give up an arm like Graterol, but Maedas floor/ceiling and price tag is a pretty solid get for a 21 year old unproven flamethrower who's already been moved to the bullpen. Tells me they had little interest in Graterol starting in 2020 and probably 2021, and also have concerns about relying 2-3 SP spots to the rookies. I would have loved to see someone with a higher upside. But it seems like they are just going to throw enough mud at the middle of the rotation hoping something sticks. I hope something sticks, too.

Yuck. But, I would imagine Walker (and honestly anybody from this list with any upside) is just gonna wait it out for a guaranteed MLB contract. No sense in signing an invite deal now, they could probably get that a week before pitchers and catchers report just about anywhere.

Great move. Makes the Twins better and signals to future FAs the Twins are legitimate. Great article as well. Now let's keep it going and go get a TOR starter and make a real run at a title.

To make an argument the Twins don't need additional starting pitching, particularly at the front of the rotation, is putting A LOT of faith in Pineda, Hill, and the crop of young guys. I don't have such faith.

Valid. You're right. I was more speaking in generalities. Any individual player can make decisions for whatever reason they want, sure. But I've seen multiples mentions of "The Twins will never sign a big name FA because it's cold." Or there isn't a high Asian population in the region. Or the taxes are high. Make a respectable offer, and they will at least consider it. This signing doesn't prove they were willing to pay Bumgarner, Wheeler, Keuchel, or Ryu the same rates they accepted. It doesn't disprove it, either. We'll never know.

Hard to find anything to dislike about this move. Donaldson is legit a frontline FA, and somehow 21M AAV seems like a discount. He just makes this team better, and significantly. Two thumbs way up. Two things moving forward though: This disproves any notion there's any reason outside of money that front end FAs won't come to Minnesota. Second, I believe this roster is now one front line SP away from being, at least on paper, a legitimate World Series contender. I'll eat the crow, and say this is a big move from the FO. I've been pretty skeptical of them up to this point, and this moves the needle quite a bit in the right direction for me. Whether it works out or not.

Now we're talkin!

*If* Pineda and Hill come back. Pineda has had 8ish good starts in the past 3 years. Absolute best case scenario is to get 80 innings out of Hill. And I'd probably take the under on that. As it has been with seemingly every single move this FO makes, I don't hate the Homer Bailey signing. Just not as the only addition to the rotation. This starting staff is one Jose Berrios elbow injury from being one of the worst in baseball.

Respectfully, I suppose I just disagree with the notion that a 4 year, 100M contract to Josh Donaldson is as big of a financial risk as you make it out to be. The Twins have about 25M committed to the 2021 payroll right now, and even less going forward. It's one thing to "run a stable business", as you put it. Its another to make claims of aggressive pursuit of top tier free agents and extensions in order to increase a potential World Series run and then scoff at every single opportunity to do so. Josh Donaldson is a hell of a baseball player. One of the better 3B in the league, both offensively and defensively. He would be out of his mind not to consider coming to the Twins, sit in the middle of this lineup and feast on the AL Central pitching staffs. The *only* reason he won't is because the Twins won't pay him his market rate.

92 is not closer to 100 than it is to 85, first of all. But that's not the point. The point is the Twins are hung up on 3M per year and unwilling to make it happen. I've been reading quite a bit, and have seen absolutely nowhere that the Twins are offering even 92. Its gonna be one final kick in the gonads when Donaldson signs with Atl for 4/95-100 and the Twins were given every opportunity to beat that.

Will he provide anything for the Twins in the playoffs? Short answer, no. Long answer, also no.

This. A million times over, this.

The idea that the Twins not making any moves now to significantly improve their chances of winning a WS in 2020 has any impact on their ability to make moves in the 2022 offseason to improve their chances at winning a WS in 2023 is the single most frustrating mindset of stomaching this giant disappointment of an offseason. In my eyes, there is absolutely no legitimate excuse for the Twins going into 2020 with a sub-par starting rotation. Also, we still don't have a first baseman, mind you. And hoping Josh Donaldson would magically take 80% of what he's going to get is not an excuse for that, either. Don't tell me they cant improve the 2020 team without sacrificing the entire future of the franchise beyond a 4 year, $85M deal for Ryu. I just don't buy it.

I care. A lot. If you're asking me, the Twins are nowhere near a better team right now than they were in October. I do not believe Rich Hill + Homer Bailey make this team any better than it was going into the Yankees playoff series. Several players are bound for a bit of regression, the 'juiced ball' debate notwithstanding. The AL Central is bound to be pretty weak, yet again. There have been several opportunities in the FA market to improve this team. Most importantly in the rotation, where right now the Twins have an absolute glaring need. Desperate, I would even say.

If the Twins only pay him the $3M, this signing will somehow be worse than it is right now. Meaning, it didn't pan out and we're left starting Randy Dobnak in a playoff series. Again.

MLBTR says the deal has 9.5M in incentives, on top of the 3M base salary.

The Twins guaranteeing Rich (*$ing) Hill $12.5M for pitching barely 1/3rd of an effective season is the definition of an "overpay", if there is such a thing. Never mind that he's 40 years old and coming off surgery on his throwing arm. Going into the season, I wouldn't count on him being available come playoff time, if our 3 man rotation for half a season can get us there. Is there any other 40 year old you would guarantee 12.5M to for throwing 75 innings? Any?? Bailey is nothing more than a replacement level guy. Wrong side of 30 and on the decline. Also, he hasn't pitched more than 150 innings but once since turning 30, and only one time in his career posted an ERA+ north of 110. I guess this is what we should expect from here out. Low Risk, Low Reward. Any talk of "I'm sure the FO will acquire *somebody* before the season starts" is starting to feel like wishful thinking. All the talk of 'aggresive' pursuit of 'impact pitching' was, to this point, a blatant lie. Theres absolutely *nothing* aggressive about ANYTHING this FO has ever done, up to this point. Maybe Bailey puts together a fine, respectable season. Maybe Hill throws 90 innings of quality pitching. Maybe one of the young bucks surprises us and magically becomes a middle of the rotation arm. For a young team with a solid core coming off of a lot of breakout performances, this offseason has been overwhelmingly disappointing.

Not making a competitive offer and Wheeler/Bumgarner "leaving money on the table" are independent situations, worthy of independent debate. The fact that the Twins didn't even make competitive offers is the underlying issue of why I'm so critical of it. What upsets me is they claimed they would be aggressive in pursuit, but so far at every opportunity, they have been everything but. I'd put long term value in Ryu because I believe he's overwhelmingly better of a pitcher than Devin Smeltzer, therefore significantly increasing the depth of the rotation and gives the Twins a much better chance at winning postseason games. 4 years was the minimum to get him. That's what his value is at. Whether you think it or not, he wasn't going to even contemplate taking a shorter offer unless it came at a massively higher AAV.

Yes. Wrong reply. Apologies.

Sometimes players might choose to go elsewhere because they legitimately wanted to go there. Some of it is uncontrollable. Once or twice, sure. I'll buy that. But when it happens at every single turn, it starts to become an issue of the common denominator. The Twins just aren't in the running for "second tier" FA pitchers. The Twins being unwilling to include a 5th year in the offer to Bumgarner is the reason I'm pretty sour about it. And if I was a betting man, I would venture to say they lowballed the Ryu offer as well. There is zero indication the Twins offered even what Arizona did (the "discount"). The fact that Wheeler passed on an offer higher than the one he took is completely irrelevant to the fact that the Twins didn't make a competitive offer.

I'm firmly of the belief that the higher end FAs aren't interested in coming to Minnesota *because* we didn't make competitive offers. Not because of some minor issue like "its cold" or "the secondary income opportunity". They wont come here because the money just isn't here. 85% of the accepted offer for Wheeler, and weren't willing to give the extra year to Bumgarner, and who knows why they weren't even in the running for Ryu. My guess is they were not willing to add the 4th year again. Just because 5/100 is the highest offer the Twins were willing to go and represents what would have been by far the highest FA contract in Twins history does not in and of itself make it a "competitive" offer.

Except you've already been through 10 rainstorms and the umbrella you've "been building" is seemingly never coming. You also just came into some extra money and now actually legitimately have $50 to spend on an umbrella. Also, during the next rainstorm that umbrella that costs $50 will cost $55. Also, every umbrella that will actually keep you dry costs at least $50. You just haven't had any additional income in a long time and haven't realized what an umbrella worth having actually costs. You keep waiting for that umbrella factory to finally produce the one you want. In the meantime we'll all be standing out in the rain, soaking wet and miserable.

Price's "potential trade value" interests me very little until he is in fact traded to the Twins. Until that point, I'm just pretty jaded, causing me to be pretty cynical. Maybe Price is getting healthy again and maybe the Twins could benefit from the Sox needing to shed payroll. Then again, i also thought maybe the Twins sign Wheeler, Ryu, Keuchel, or Bumgarner.

Price has $96M left on his contract. Would you sign David Price for 3/96 today? It's either going to cost nearly that 100M to get him, or they are going to want a decent prospect haul. One or the other. I wouldn't call that "nothing". Far from it. That's the bad part about being forced into negotiating trades because you failed to acquire what you need on the open market. Never mind that Price hasn't been effectively healthy in 3 years. If Matz is #6 in New York then why do you want him here? That's literally admitting we have a terrible rotation. Ray being "not a top tier pitcher" brings the same question again, why do we even want him here then? It's a cop out answer because it's not an "overpay" if that's what every quality starter costs. You can't watch every single FA sign elsewhere and then claim every single suitor "overpaid". Its a cop out because it's not overpaying. That's the price. Either pay it, or admit you aren't in the running. Consistently offering 85% of the accepted contract isn't a "competitive offer". If the Twins FO opened up the offseason and spoke to the fans the last few years with the realization and acceptance that they just aren't going to bring in a top tier FA pitcher, I'd respect and accept that more. What disappoints me is the idea that we were told the Twins will aggressively pursue impact pitching, and be aggressive with the payroll, when in reality it seemingly was blown smoke.