3balls2strikes

Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
  AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
  Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
 
 

A couple of weeks ago, in the aftermath of the Minnesota Twins signing free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, I checked in with sportsbooks at William Hill and Elite to see what effect the addition of the Bringer of Rain was having on the oddsmakers' views of the Twins' chances of winning their Division, the American League Pennant and the World Series in 2020.
 
As it turned out, the bookies weren't exactly joining in Twins' fans euphoria. The odds had shifted very little or not at all.
 
As I wrote then, however, I decided to follow this throughout the rest of the offseason (maybe even into the season) and see whether things change. In addition, I also noticed a few other interesting lines as I perused the William Hill and Elite Sportsbook sites this morning.
 
First, let's take a look at what's happening with the Twins' odds for the 2020 season.
 
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Jan-30-2-scaled.jpg
 
The long and short of it is that there isn't a lot of movement and the differences between the two sportsbooks are shrinking or even disappearing, in some cases.
 
The one bet where it still pays to shop around is with regard to Minnesota's odds to repeat as the American League Central Champions. At William Hill, the Twins' odds have moved from -175 to -160, so they're becoming bigger believers as time moves on. But if you want to put money on the Twins to win their Division, you still want to go to Elite to do it. They continue to list the Twins as an even-odds favorite to repeat. (A $100 bet on the Twins at William Hill will win you just $62.50 if they win the Central, where the same bet gets you $100 at Elite's 1-1 odds.)
 
William Hill has brought their odds on the Twins winning the AL Pennant and the World Series directly in line with Elite's line, which hasn't changed since we checked in a couple of weeks ago. William Hill has brought their projected regular season wins total back a half-win, to 91 1/2 wins, however. Elite is where you want to go if you want to bet the over on Twins wins, however. They're at 90 1/2 wins. I couldn't find where I checked what Elite had for Twins Total Wins a couple of weeks ago.
 
So, that's the story on the Twins. But let's move on and look at where else you might want to have some fun.
 
In the last article, I pointed out that, if you're inclined to throw you're money away, you could get much healthier odds on the Tigers and Royals to win the World Series at William Hill than at Elite. That's still the case. In fact, the odds against the projected AL Central doormats are getting even longer. At William Hill, the Royals have moved from 200-1 to 250-1, currently. Previously at 500-1, the Tigers (along with the Orioles) are now at 750-1. At Elite, the Royals and Tigers sit at 125-1.
 
But if you're really looking to flush your money down the toilet... I mean... if you're looking for a value-buy, check out the Orioles. At Elite, the Orioles get you a measly 100-1 odds. But at William Hill, they sit right there with the Tigers at 750-1! I mean, if you're going to throw $100 on a long shot, do you want to get ten grand when it pays off or would you prefer $75,000?
 
Silly talk right? Yeah, but I bet there's one member of my immediate family who, assuming he reads this, is sitting there right now thinking hard about that Orioles bet.
 
There are a couple of more realistic (relatively speaking, anyway) options to give some thought to, though, when you compare odds being offered at these two books.
 
The Red Sox are still sitting at 5-1 odds to win the American League on Elite, but you can get 12-1 on the same bet at William Hill. Have to say, 12-1 on a Boston AL Pennant is pretty tempting.
 
If you think the AL East is just too tough for the Red Sox to fight through, how about a team that's in a Division most people see as much easier to win? How are you feeling about Cleveland, for example? Yeah the Twins are loaded on offense, but Cleveland still has pitching and defense and that's what wins championships, right?
 
Again, stay away from Elite, where they offer just 7-1 odds. You can get twice that (14-1) on Cleveland to win the American League at William Hill.
 
You might start to think that William Hill is simply the place to go for better odds, right? Not always, no. You know the Angels have been making some pretty strong moves. Maybe you think the Astros will falter when they're forced to use trash cans just to collect trash. The Angels front office seems to think this is the year to go for it. What if they're right?
 
If you want to get on the Halos' bandwagon, you turn your attention away from William Hill (where they offer just 10-1 odds to win the AL Pennant) and give Elite your business, taking them up on their 17-1 offering for the same bet.
 
Believe it or not, though, they also play baseball in the National League! Let's take a peek over there.
People in Minnesota may not be aware of this, but the Chicago Cubs have a pretty big following (especially down here in Eastern Iowa). I know, there's no accounting for taste, but some people were just raised poorly and we shouldn't hold it against them.
 
Most of these people, you would think, learned a long, long time ago never to bet on the Cubs. But some of them, still drunk on finally winning it all a few years ago, might be optimistic enough to consider putting some money on the Cubbies in 2020. If that describes anyone you know, the place to go is William Hill, where you can get 12-1 odds on the Cubs winning the National League (vs. just 6-1 at Elite) and an even healthier 25-1 on a Cubs World Series Championship (compared to 12-1 at Elite).
 
Yes, that means you get the same return at William Hill for the Cubs "merely" winning the NL Pennant that Elite is requiring a Cubs World Series trophy to get.
 
Of course, if you want the longest odds on Cubs bets, you might want to wait a few days. Now that Kris Bryant lost his case and is under club control for the extra year, it's only a matter of time before he's traded, right? That should bump the odds up a bit.
 
I guess that's enough to ponder for today. Maybe we'll check back in about the time Spring Training is getting underway.

For the first time in a long time the Minnesota Twins are entering the offseason in a prime position to sign top of the market starting pitchers. While Twins fans are (understandably) fantasizing about the prospect of signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, I’m here to discuss another free agent starting pitcher who I believe would be more likely to come to Minnesota, would cost significantly less, and could be the next Justin Verlander...Madison Bumgarner.
 
When looking at the peripheral career trajectories of Bumgarner and Verlander, the similarities between the two are undeniable - starting pitchers in their 30s who debuted at a young age and are both multi-year all stars with playoff experience. Verlander was 34 years old with 12 years of big league experience when he was traded to the Astros while MadBum is 30 years old with 10 years of big league experience as he enters free agency. The Verlander acquisition obviously worked out wondrously for the Astros, so in this article I’ll be digging deeper into the careers of these two pitchers to find out if there could be some Verlander-type upside with the Twins signing Madison Bumgarner this offseason.
 


 
Years 1-10
 
The first thing I wanted to look at when comparing these two star pitchers was where Verlander was at in his career through his first ten full seasons in the MLB, as Bumgarner just finished his tenth full season. If these numbers showed that Verlander was a drastically better pitcher than Bumgarner, then this whole exercise would be moot, but as you can see in the chart above, this is not the case. The numbers actually show that through their first 10 full seasons, Bumgarner has been the better pitcher, according to ERA, FIP and K/9. That this is the case allows us to further dig into this comparison and see if we can continue to project Verlander’s career arc onto Bumgarner.
 


 
Years 8-10
 
The next thing that we should look at when comparing Verlander and Bumgarner was their performance in years 8-10 of their careers. At the time of the trade deadline when Twins fans were discussing the prospect of trading for MadBum, the criticism that I heard from many was that Bumgarner is no longer the pitcher that he used to be and that he has now settled into a new phase of his career. While Bumgarner has experienced a dip in his numbers the past three years, the drop is smaller than what most folks made it out to be, and is a very similar drop to Verlander’s in his years 8-10.
 


 
Years 11-14
 
Since the past stats for Verlander and Bumgarner that we analyzed seem to follow a similar trajectory, it’s worth giving a look at how Verlander performed in his years 11-14 to get an idea of what the next three years of Bumgarner could look like if everything breaks right, like they did with Justin. As you can see above, Verlander improved in every way in years 11-14 of his career, dropping his ERA a full run and raising his K/9 a full three strikeouts from the previous three seasons.
 
What changed for Verlander to cause his numbers to improve so much, so late in his career? Changing teams.
 
Half way through 2017, Verlander was traded to the Houston Astros, an organization that values numbers and analytics and has shown time and time again it’s ability to work with pitchers and get the very most out of their talent. The new regime of the Twins front office has acted in a very similar way, putting a huge priority into analytics and talent development. While the sample size with Wes Johnson as pitching coach has only been one season, I definitely think it’s reasonable to assume that Johnson could have an impact on Bumgarner similar to the impact that Houston’s organization and pitching coach, Brent Strom, had on Verlander.
 
Justin Verlander is a future hall-of-fame pitcher that the Astros acquired in spite of him having some down years through the middle of his career. They saw his track record and believed that they could get him back to the Cy Young pitcher that he once was. I truly believe that the Minnesota Twins could do a similar job in using their player development and infrastructure to turn Madison Bumgarner back into a star and earn him another World Series MVP honor. This time in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Wondering what fans at Game Three thought of the nightclub atmosphere at the game last night. I thought having a DJ playing "sick beats" and loud, thumping bass for four hours was really grating... but I am an old soul.
 
Last season I really enjoyed my trip to Wrigley to see the Twins play. The PA guy wasn't shouting, the music wasn't blaring and the fans didn't need their hands held the entire game to know if/when to MAKE NOISE.
 
Personally, I think a DJ/pump-up music guy is cool for the pregame but holy cow did that get old after a while last night.
 
Again, maybe I'm just old so I am wondering what others thought.

Picture this, I’m sitting in my 1:00 Anthropology class again absolutely bored out of my mind as my professor drones on about, well actually I don’t remember, but I hope it wasn’t important. Anyways, an interesting thought came to me; how did Derek Falvey build the Indians starting pitching staff? This thought came the day after looking at the Fangraphs projections for both Minnesota and Cleveland and realizing that dear God, Cleveland’s starting staff projections are hilariously better than Minnesota’s, even David doesn’t want to take on that Goliath. We can finagle about how much attention the Twins should have given the starting rotation this offseason, but short of signing Dallas Keuchel, trading for Zack Greinke, and then telling Jake Odorizzi to take a hike, the Twins starting staff was always going to be vastly inferior to the Indians. So how did Falvey do it? The man was boasted as the brains behind arguably the strongest rotation in baseball, so let’s dig into how he built it.
 
 
Falvey first joined the Indians as an intern in 2007 and then transitioned to Assistant Director of Baseball Operations in 2009. Falvey was then promoted to co-director of Baseball Operations in 2011 where he stayed until becoming the assistant GM in 2016, the same year he joined the Twins as executive vice president and chief baseball officer. Admittedly, Falvey’s role in the Indians front office early on was a bit less important than the one he has now with the Twins, so assigning the reason for these moves directly on him is a bit of a stretch. But at the same time, I think it’s fair to assume that Falvey played a decent role in all of these moves. I also have to appreciate the absurdness of some of the job titles they hand out in teams front offices, I could have made up those positions and you would not have been any wiser.
 
 

Corey Kluber


 
 
Corey Kluber, Cy Young winner, perfect robot, and the destroyer of Twins hitters hopes and dreams himself. This inhuman wrecking machine was obtained in a 3 team trade in 2010 between the Padres, Indians, and Cardinals. The Indians received Kluber, the Cardinals received Nick Greenwood, and the Padres obtained Ryan Ludwick. Nick Greenwood was worth -0.2 rWAR in the 36 innings he threw for the Cardinals while Ryan Ludwick put up a .659 OPS over 2 years with the Padres before being dropped on the Pirates. Oh yeah, and that Corey Kluber guy has done OK for the Indians so far.
 
For the life of me, I cannot figure out how Kluber became what he is now. At the time of the trade, he was just a body in the Padres system and wasn’t even ranked in their top 30 prospect list. He had a career minor league record of 18-24 when traded and was somehow even worse in his first stint with Cleveland’s AAA team. Apparently, he learned how to throw a sinker in 2011 and then won a Cy Young just 3 years later. So take that as a lesson, kids at home, just add one of the best sinkers in MLB and you too can win a Cy Young.
 
It’s a bit of a disappointing conclusion to draw from Kluber, but basically, we can just say that sometimes it’s the guys who aren’t major prospects who can turn into stars. If I had to assign a player for the Twins that would be their “Kluber”, it would Kohl Stewart. Stewart was initially a better prospect than Kluber but fell so far recently that the Twins were perfectly OK with any team taking him for their own during the rule 5 draft. Since then, he worked his way up through the system until he made his MLB debut in 2018 and became a personal favorite Twin of mine. He even features a similar sinker/cutter combo that has made Kluber an unstoppable pitching machine but lacks the true dominating breaking ball that makes Kluber so ridiculous.
 
 

Trevor Bauer


 
 
The most scientific man in baseball was a solid innings eater early in his career until he broke out in 2018 and changed to really, we have to worry about another one of these bastards now? And now we don’t even have Oswaldo Arcia to stop him, such a shame. Bauer was originally the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 draft out of UCLA. But he was actually taken by the D-Backs, in case you forgot. He was acquired by the Indians in yet another 3 team trade, this time in 2012. Bauer went to the Indians along with Matt Albers, Bryan Shaw, and Drew Stubbs, while Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp, and Lars Anderson went to the D-Backs, and the Reds received Shin Soo-Choo and Jason Donald. Now, that is way more players than I feel like analyzing, but Cleveland made out pretty well here if I do say so myself.
 
Bauer’s path to the majors is a bit more straightforward, he was a top pick from college and moved as quickly as you would expect a top college arm could move. His status as a prospect was always top and while he was just a good pitcher for a while instead of a great one, he became the true thinking man’s pitcher in 2018 thanks in part to a new slider he developed himself.
 
 
Seems simple enough for the Twins to follow here right? Just use an incredibly high pick on an elite starter that sees the game like few pitchers do and is as dedicated to his craft like I am dedicated to the bagel shop on my campus. The closest comparison I can think of is Jose Berrios, Berrios was also a first round pick who is ridiculously dedicated to improving and has more work ethic in his left pinky than I have in my entire body. While Bauer is the better hurler of a round object at high speeds, Berrios has the kind of talent that even Phil Cuzzi could see and could become even better if Wes Johnson and the boys crack his secret code.
 
 

Mike Clevinger


 
 
The man from Florida who looks like a man from California, Mike was originally taken by the Angels in 2011 before they traded him to Cleveland in 2014 for the guy who sounds more like an extra in “Goodfellas” than a baseball pitcher, Vinnie Pestano. Clevinger actually pitched for the Cedar Rapids Kernels who are now the affiliate for the Twins. I have nothing else to add to that, I just thought it was neat. This was just about the definition of a throwaway trade at the time it occurred, but oh man should we really hate the Angels for this one. Clevinger went from an ERA over 5 in class A to you have got to be joking me, they have another really good starter now?
 
Clevinger was kind of on people’s radars as he was ranked the 17th best prospect in the Angels organization at the start of 2014, but his numbers up to that point were incredibly whelming. Much like Kluber, he was a guy that the Indians saw and thought that maybe with a tweak here and there, he could become something in the future. And credit to Clevinger, he was apparently all ears about doing whatever he had to do to succeed.
 
This is another kind of tough one to draw a conclusion from because “just find a guy who is a few changes that no one else can see away from being elite” isn’t really a good blueprint for success or at least not a consistent one. Considering that I have already forced myself to find comparisons for each guy, I will go with Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ “Clevinger”. Duran is a much better prospect than what Clevinger was but also switched teams in a trade during the season. So far in his short time in Cedar Rapids (hint hint), Duran has dominated hitters and looks to move up to high A Fort Myers soon. I hope he doesn't mind that I now have him pegged as the next Clevinger, no pressure there kid.
 
 

Carlos Carrasco


 
 
The cookie monster was originally taken by the Phillies in 2003 out of Venezuela. In his first spring training, he ate Domino’s pizza every day for 90 straight days because he didn’t know what else to order in English. I don’t know how he did that considering that Domino’s pizza tastes like the cardboard box it comes in, but to each his own I guess. Carrasco was also acquired in 2009 in a trade (I’m noticing a pattern) along with some other forgettable dudes for Ben Francisco and Cliff Lee. Carrasco was the top prospect for the Phillies and was ranked as the 41st best prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America that year.
 
Carrasco’s journey to be who he is now took a while as he struggled with injuries and not being effective early on in his MLB career. Despite starting his MLB career in 2009, it took Carrasco until 2015 to pitch more than 150 innings in a season. The Indians took a very conservative approach by using him out of the bullpen often in 2013 and 2014 after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2012. After working his arm back up, they unleashed him as a starter and he’s been a pain in the Twins’ ass ever since.
 
Let’s see here, a top prospect, underwent Tommy John surgery, used out of the bullpen at first… Folks, we already have the next Carrasco here in Fernando Romero. Romero arguably has the nastiest stuff in the Twins system but still needs to learn how to refine his game and be the nightmare pitcher we all know he can be. While it seems that Romero is all but destined for the bullpen in 2019, it could be that the Twins still plan on using him as a starter long term and will be in the rotation in 2020 when more spots become available.
 
 

Shane Bieber


 
 
The Biebs was taken in the 2016 draft which was the very last one Derek Falvey participated in for Cleveland before leaving for the Twin Cities. He was taken in the 4th round out of college and moved pretty quickly due to being a college starter and having some ridiculous minor league numbers (.6 BB/9, 2.24 ERA).
 
The Biebs is a much more simple guy to track here, he was taken by Cleveland and moved up their ranks quickly as he continued to perform well at every level. He rose up prospect lists last year thanks to his incredible command and was a top 100 prospect by most publications by the time he made his debut for the Indians.
 
Who’s the Shane Bieber for the Twins? That’s an interesting one to think of because the front office under Falvey and Levine really haven’t taken many college arms with top picks. This is a bit of a reach, but I’ll pick Blayne Enlow as the Twins’ “Shane Bieber”. Enlow was taken out of high school but was a 3rd round pick partly because the Twins saved enough signing bonus money in the Royce Lewis pick to pay over the slot for Enlow and coax him out of going to the collegiate ranks. While Enlow is still just 19, his projections have received much praise from scouts and being able to handle low A ball as a 19-year-old is pretty impressive. While it will still be a few more years before Enlow probably makes the majors, he could be an important piece in a future Twins rotation.
 
There it is, the 5 pitchers that make up the current Indians’ starting staff and how they got there along with their Twins counterparts. 4 out of the 5 guys were not originally taken by the Indians and 2 out of the 5 guys were never really big prospects at all while the other 3 were. Probably the most interesting thing to note is that none of these guys were big free agent signings or acquired via trade as veterans and only Bauer had any experience pitching at the MLB level for another team. Is it any coincidence that Falvey has been a stickler for adding long term solutions to the starting rotation so far in his tenure? Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez were all obtained with 2 years of team control, but the plan so far has been to shy away from major rotation upgrades in the long term.
 
Looking into 2020, the current rotation is Jose Berrios and possibly Martin Perez if they pick up his option. Odorizzi, Gibson, and Pineda are all set to be gone, leaving up to 4 holes to be filled. Looking ahead also, the starting pitchers available in free agency after the 2019 season are very tasty, to say the least. Go take a quick look, you won’t be disappointed. But now that we know what Falvey did to build his most impressive rotation, will the Twins even bother with free agency then? The Cubs built a successful rotation through free agency in their World Series winning team, but I don’t believe the Twins will follow that same route. Instead, they will run with Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Jhoan Duran, and Blayne Enlow, to take them to the World Series and you can bet on that.

“Every artist gets asked the question ‘Where do you get your ideas?’ The honest artist answers ‘I steal them.’” - Austin Kleon
 
As Twins fans, we tend to look at roster moves through Twins-colored glasses. We know there are approaches to roster construction and talent acquisition outside of the Falvey/Levine mold and we try our best to keep track of them, but it’s difficult and time-consuming to monitor 29 other rosters for ideas the Twins could adopt. Unfortunately opposing players don’t have “amateur free agent” or “trade acquisition” on their jerseys along with their name and number.
 
The good news, friends, is that your humble author has done the hard work for you. Over the past few weeks I’ve studied the teams that made the 2018 postseason in an effort to better understand to what degree they relied on homegrown talent (i.e. drafted and signed internationally) and external talent (i.e. free agents and trade acquisitions) to reach the postseason. I looked at every player that suited up for these clubs and tracked how they were acquired and how they performed. The results were surprising and fascinating, showing one key area where the Twins have fallen behind - an opportunity they can’t afford to continue to miss if they want to return to the postseason.
 
Before we dive in, a few notes on methodology:

All WAR figures are based on FanGraphs’ WAR formula. If you aren’t a fan of WAR, you may want to turn back now, but you’re reading a baseball site on Super Bowl Sunday so my guess is we’re safe.
The 2019 Twins projections below are FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections, which are a blend of Steamer’s projection system and playing time estimates by FanGraphs’ staff.
Several types of averages below help summarize the postseason field as a whole, including median, unweighted average (mean) and weighted average. The weighted average favor the clubs that advanced further into the postseason (crediting 19 games for advancing to the World Series, 12 games for advancing to the league championship series, and so forth). So the Red Sox are weighted more heavily in that average than the A’s, for example.
The “Small Market Average” is an average of Cleveland, Oakland, Milwaukee and Colorado, meant to represent the postseason clubs more closely aligned with the Twins’ revenues and spending capabilities.

Okay, let’s get started.
 
Homegrown Talent
 
Any conversation around Minnesota’s underwhelming 2018 starts with the struggles of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, but readers may be surprised by how competitive the Twins’ homegrown core was relative to those of the postseason clubs, even factoring in Buxton and Sano’s struggles. Let’s take a closer look at the numbers:
 


 
In fact, players the Twins drafted or signed as amateur international free agents contributed 19.6 wins to the 2018 club, roughly even with the average playoff team. Among the contending clubs, the Red Sox and Rockies led the way with 23.7 and 23.5 wins respectively from their homegrown talent, while the Brewers managed to lead the National League in wins despite only 3.6 wins’ worth of production from players they’d drafted or signed internationally.
 
Fangraphs projects the Twins’ drafted and international signings to continue to produce at or above the level of a postseason team in 2019, but 2018 showed us that this won’t be enough to take the club to October. So if the Twins maintained pace with baseball’s best in homegrown production and still fell short, where did the eventual postseason clubs pull away?
 
Free Agency
 
The state of free agency has been a hot topic this offseason, and it’s no secret to Twins fans that the free agent market wasn’t kind to their club in 2018. Logan Morrison, Lance Lynn and Addison Reed fall flat, and key free agent investments from previous offseasons Ervin Santana and Jason Castro were non-factors. Let’s take a look at free agent production as compared to the 2018 playoff teams:
 




 
While the Twins got a mere 1.3 wins from players acquired via free agency, playoff teams enjoyed an average of nearly 8 wins apiece. There were outliers even within one division, with the Dodgers needing nearly 14 wins from former free agents to squeak into the postseason while the Rockies needed less than 2 free agent wins to do the same. The NL West race also demonstrates a split in strategy between larger- and smaller-market teams, with the smaller predictably relying less on free agents than their larger-market counterparts.
 
If Twins fans are looking for some good news, it’s unlikely their luck will be nearly as poor in 2019. FanGraphs has rosy projections for former free agents Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Jonathan Schoop, but a return to the postseason will likely hinge on every ounce of the 13.5 wins FanGraphs projects the Twins getting from players acquired in free agency.
 
But here’s where things get interesting, because if the homegrown core still looks promising and the free agent acquisitions appear poised for fairly strong production, there’s only one player acquisition strategy left that jumps off the page as a missed opportunity for the Twins, and if you took a close look at the charts above you may be way ahead of me.
 
The Trade Market
 
While last year’s playoff teams may have had a step up on the Twins in free agency, they absolutely torched the Twins when it came to finding surplus value in the trade market. Let’s take another look at the breakdown of external production:
 




Outside of the trade for Jake Odorizzi, the Twins have been largely absent from the trade market, and it shows when you compare them to the best teams in baseball. Excluding midseason trades, which we’ll omit due to the Twins having very different goals in those trades than the other teams on this list, trade acquisitions contributed only 6.1 wins to the Twins in 2018, and those were largely concentrated between Odorizzi and erstwhile fan favorite Eduardo Escobar.
 
By comparison, 2018’s postseason teams averaged a whopping 17.9 wins from players acquired via trade, again excluding midseason trades. That’s nearly 40% of their production coming from such trades, and the number balloons to nearly 50% when you look at just the smaller market clubs. The A’s and the Indians have written the book on building a small market contender by acing the trade market, with the A’s acquiring over half their 2018 production and the Indians acquiring four of five pieces of a dynamic rotation (all of whom were worth 4 or more WAR) via trade.
 
If there’s one lesson to take from this review of the 2018 postseason field, it’s that effectively leveraging the trade market is critical to building a postseason contender, and the Twins have not kept pace with their competition. Twins fans have seen what can happen when trades go wrong, but we also saw in 2018 the effect that conservative trade activity can have on a club that has eyes on the postseason. Is it time to get out there and make some aggressive moves?

Wow - no Abbott and Costello needed for this joke - just Falvey and Levine. The Twins are playing right now against the Rangers - okay, just 60 games left, open roster, we could bring up Vargas, Wade, Petit, Wiel and have a nice surprise players at first base. Or we could stay with Mauer or Austin, or give Sano or Grossman the 1B glove for a day.
 
But not this advanced metrics group of geniuses - nope we outsmarted everyone. We swung a secret trade of Wilson for Gimenez to boost our future and not behind the plate - nope, we needed to get Gimenez bat in the line up and Astudillo was set for catcher, so Gimenez at 1B.
 
Wow, I wonder how Chris stacks up among all 1B in the majors this year? How about last? Only the Twins were smart enough to redefine what a 1B player should look like and ignore the eight who might be considered for the position to come up with New Baseball. Forget Moneyball; we are into Washed Up Ball. Of course he is in position to take the mound after Belisle does his mound magic.
 
Update - I was so upset I could not wait for Texas to score 18 runs, but now it is over and Belisle gave up a run without a hit, out, error, but one big HBP and then thrown out. This allowed him to secure his 8.01 ERA and then as I had anticipated our pitcher in waiting Gimenez came it - let's hear the collective Hooray! And one inning, six hits, and five runs later the game was over.
Falvey, Levine - congratulations on maneuvering our roster so we could accomplish this great feat!

Thought I might add my two cents as to what is needed in the offseason to vault the Twins into playoff contention. It should be clear by now that there are simply too many holes on this current group to seriously believe they would be strong contenders next year without significant additions(we'll leave the Manager position to others for now).
 
Here are my top three priorities for the FO to consider in the off season:
 
1. A #1 Starter
 
-Yes, I know the starting rotation has been one of the stronger points of the team this year, which tells you all you need to know about the quality of the roster. While Berrios has taken a step forward, he simply is not the stopper you're looking for. Perhaps he'll develop into one but for now he is far too erratic to be counted on in big game situations,e.g., starting a playoff series. I've seen him against a full house here in Wrigley Field - he was awful! He has also been spotty against other top teams especially in the second half of the season. Gibson/Odorizzi are possibly adequate #3/#4 starters but again, on a playoff team, they have to rev it up a notch to give this team a more competitive rotation. While Romero gave us cause for optimism early, he simply was unable to sustain his run for long periods, either in the AL or AAA, and thus, while a favorite for next year's staff, is hardly a sure thing.
 
-So easy to say we need a #1 starter but how to add one is a much more difficult proposition. First, Free Agency has to be viewed as far-fetched. Maybe a couple of big names available but what are the chances the Twins would land one of the few? Much better chance of trading for one, say Baumgartner, de Grom, Snydergaard, or Snell. It will be difficult, no doubt, but if the FO feels this team should be ready to compete in 2019, they must use their newly found minor league depth to trade for one. No, Gordon or Gonzales is not going to do it, but Rooker, Romero and one or two of our better single A players might get it done. The point is: the FO must be bold and sacrifice some of this accumulated minor league depth to roll the dice to get a #1 starter. Unlike Ryan, who could never bring himself to give up his prized prospects, I think Falvey is made of sterner stuff and will seize the opportunity(at least he should!).
 
2. A cleanup hitter - one good for 30-40HRs/100+ rbis. Counting on Sano to fill this position is a fool's errand at this point. If he regains his batting touch, great, but to count on such a recovery would doom us to a repeat of 2018. Just as hoping one of Rosario, Kepler, Austin, Cave will step up and fill the big bopper role is a sure bet to wreck contending chances for next year. Finding a free agent cleanup hitter in the AL is made easier with the DH and the cost would not be nearly as prohibitive as finding a #1 starter. There must be some veterans who will be available at a reasonable cost who can fill the DH/1B position and provide far more punch than our 2018 "cleanup" hitters have done.
 
3. A true Closer. Our bullpen is a mess right now and to count on any reliever on the current roster to fill the closer role, not to mention the 7th or 8th inning roles, would represent a clear dereliction of duties. But a true closer, not 41 year old, must be added. The Twins will have plenty of money to go out and buy a legitimate closer without another dumpster dive. A second top reliever should also be signed, thereby relieving the pressure on those lower down on the totem pole, e.g., Rodgers, Hildenberg and May - who all belong on a major league roster so long as they are not relied upon for late inning work. The rest of the current bullpen is highly suspect, as are the farm's AAAA relievers. Let's just chalk up the previous FO's attempts to expend high draft choices on relievers as an abject failure and move on under the new regime.
 
All of these moves can and should be done. All it takes is money, courage and persistence. This offseason is the ultimate test for Falvey and Company. Their end of July dump was a very good start but it must be continued in the offseason, starting with Mauer, Santana, Morrison, Belisle, Grossman, and even next spring, Buxton and Sano if they haven't turned things around yet. Canning Molitor would be icing on the cake, but that can await next year's early season performance, assuming the FO has made the recommended moves.
 
If the new FO is capable of building a championship, this offseason will be critical. The old regime's mistakes must now be recognized and moved away from. No more free rides!!

https://www.apnews.com/084ccc602de94182817778ef905228dc/MLB-strikeouts-top-hits-for-2nd-time-in-3-months
 
 
"Strikeouts exceeded hits in the major leagues for the second time in three months, a deviation that had never occurred before this year.
 
There were 6,776 strikeouts and 6,640 hits in June, the Elias Sports Bureau said Sunday. That leaves the season totals at 21,090 strikeouts and 20,671 hits about halfway through the season."
 
What ails MLB? Here is a pretty good symptom. Major league teams are averaging 711 K to 273 BB at this point in the season. That is a team average not a league average. Our Minnesota Twins are 668 - 279. We are a little better than average (of course we have been without Buxton and Sano!
The MLB average batting pct is 246 - which includes pitchers in the NL, and the Twins are 238.
 
In 1927, a season known for a guy named Ruth and his 60 home runs, there was another forgotten record. The Philadelphia Athletics struck out only 327 times - that is the entire team - for the season! The Cincinnati Reds set the record for the fewest team strikeouts - 308 - in 1921. The Astros in 2013 struck out 1535 times. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/recbooks/rb_strike2.shtml Milwaukee Brewers batters struck out 1,571 times during the 2017 season, surpassing the previous mark of 1,543 by the Brewers in 2016. http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-strikeouts-in-a-season-team
 
The Minnesota Twins record for fewest strikeouts in a season is 684 in 1978! We are within 16 of surpassing that record. Our most is 1121 in 1997. We are way more than half way to that record.
 
When Nolan Ryan struck out 383 batters in 1973 the American League there 3.37 Ks per game, and in 2018 it is 8.53. "In 1973, when Ryan struck out 383 batters, only 10 American Leaguers struck out 100 times that season, none of them more than Bobby Darwin's 137. Last year in the AL, 73 hitters struck out 100 times, 24 of them more than Darwin's total." https://www.mlb.com/news/two-unbreakable-records-of-nolan-ryan/c-265897848
 
The rise of 5 strikeouts per game average is not because the pitchers are better, it is the new game, and it makes Ks meaningless and boring.
 
Thanks to a question by Sconnie I am adding this additional information. I think it is enlightening and important:
 
Happily.The stat heads - call it money ball if you want - came in and said that a K is ok.They said it was just another out and did not cause a DP, but they did not say it would not move a runner or cause an error or get a base hit..They discounted the K as a negative and the K rate has soared.Thus a pitcher is more likely to get a K than at any time in the past when batters protected the zone or choked up on their bat.
 
The old time slugger was embarrassed to strike out 100 times a season. Sano has 536 strike outs in 1288 at bats.Certainly a pitcher can be embarrassed when Sano connects, but if I think about 40 HRs, 40 solo HRs I have to ask if that really offsets all those strikeouts.We have 162 games, that means a HR every 4 games if he hits 40.What else happens?
 
This led to more high strikeout pitching rates, butnothing to compare with Ryan, Koufax, Johnson, Feller, etc who had high rates of strikeouts when batters really worked to make contact.So I do not know how to rank Kershaw, Sale, etc.I can say they are better than their contemporaries, but not better than the historical pitchers.
 
Where is the shame in striking out?Babe Ruth once said, "“Never let the fear of striking out get in your way.” Check out this article - Babe Ruth would be considered a contact hitter now -https://howtheyplay.com/team-sports/strikeouts-have-skyrocketed-since-Babe-Ruth "In 2012, Adam Dunn struck out 222 times. Babe Ruth struck out 234 times in a four-year period. Some have justified Dunn’s total with the fact that he hit 41 homers and walked 105 times. In Ruth’s four years when he had a combined total of just 12 more than Dunn had, he hit 182 home runs and walked 466 times (he also had 713 hits for a .355 batting average, compared to Dunn’s .204.)
 
Five players this year had more than 176 strikeouts, which was Ruth’s worst two-year total (1927-28 when he hit 114 home runs.) Several weeks ago, Sports Illustrated raved that Buster Posey is a player who rarely strikes out. Don Mattingly praised Posey as someone who doesn’t have a high strike out rate. So how many times did Posey fan in 2012? 96 times, three more than the highest total of Ruth, the strikeout king."
 
Look at this list of more home runs that strikeouts - https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10091.html.
I will give you one more reference - from the Denver Post - https://www.denverpost.com/2018/04/29/mlb-strikeout-era/
 
And finally, here is an article that normalizes strikeout rates for the top 200 pitchers. htp://twww.highheats...rs-of-all-time/
 
I hope this gives you a lot to think about as we recognize that high heat meeting wild swings guarantees lots of Ks, but not good baseball.

During the final game of the last homestand against the Rangers, after the Twins dropped the first three games of the series to the Rangers, many fans noticed a change to the familiar Minnie and Paul celebration sign in center field.
 
As an apparent gesture of the Twins performance this year, likely in particular that of the offense lately, Minnie and Paul had paper bags placed over their heads. Minnie and Paul are well-known for their friendly handshake over the Mississippi River.
 
Minnesota Twins Senior Director of Ballpark Development and Planning Dan Starkey said, “We felt this was the correct gesture to ensure that Twins fans have the right mentality when coming to Target Field to cheer on the Twins this year.” He added, “We are considering making additional changes to the famous Minnie and Paul sign. For example, after Joe Mauer leaves the Twins or retires, we’re considering changing the handshake to some kind of fist bump to appeal to current players and millennial fans.”
 
We asked Starkey if they had any additional plans around Target Field, other than with Minnie and Paul, to commemorate the failing Twins season. “Well if the Twins are truly going to continue being a bad team this year, why not embrace that and find ways to enjoy it? When the Twins are officially eliminated from playoff contention, we are planning on hosting a paper bag giveaway sponsored by Cub Foods so every fan can watch the game from the comfort and security of a paper bag over their head with some eye holes poked into it. We’ll even have mini paper bags for the kids,” Starkey said.

The Minnesota Twins find themselves scratching and clawing through games in order to get back to the .500 mark. This season opened with so much promise, and has taken turns that virtually no one expected. While Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar pace the offense, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have been non existent commodities. Somewhat of an afterthought at this point, Brian Dozier has given Paul Molitor nothing of substance in 2018.
 
After garnering MVP votes for the third straight season last year, and winning a Gold Glove on the basis of his offensive performance, Dozier has been a black hole in the Twins lineup. In 2016 and 2017, the Minnesota second basemen posted .886 and .856 OPS totals respectively. As of June 20 this season, he's got a .682 mark. Slow starts aren't uncommon for the Mississippi native, but this level seems a bit unprecedented.
 
On June 7, 2017 Dozier owned a .748 OPS along with 19 extra base hits (9 longballs). Going back to 2016, he posted just a .694 OPS across 62 games up until June 17. That year he once again had 19 extra base hits, but only seven were homers. Through 68 games in 2018, Dozier has tallied 24 extra base hits and 10 homers. Putting it into that sort of perspective, things feel a bit less bleak.
 
If there's reason to be optimistic, it's that we've seen Brian make a habit of this. He's traditionally been a slow starter that goes on a tear at some point in the early summer. Right now, he owns a career best hard hit rate, and is spraying the ball consistent with career norms. His fly ball rate is where it has been and he's actually both chasing and whiffing less. If there's an area to point towards in relation to the slide, it's hit 6% dip in line drives, as well as the 6% falloff in HR/FB ratio.
 
For the Twins, Dozier has been the same player for each of the past handful of seasons. He uses a dead pull approach that allows him to yank homers over the left field fence. There's solid bat speed and whip through the zone, but he's not the hulking power hitter one would stereotype. Despite seasons of 42 and 34 longballs the past two seasons, a projection in the upper 20's seems like a safe bet on an annual basis. You're also going to get that production in lopsided amounts over the course of the season.
 
In short, I'm not certain Brian Dozier has gone anywhere. In fact, he probably is who he's always been.
To generate a higher level of production, Dozier will absolutely need to get the ball off the ground a bit more. The drop in line drive rate is significant, and putting the baseball on the ground is never going to be his game. As the line drives increase, so too should the HR/FB ratio.
 
The problem with streaky hitters is that you have to take your lumps through the down times, and unfortunately Dozier's is an annual occurrence. Despite the average being abnormally low, we aren't far off from what would be considered on par with previous outputs. If the Twins offense as a whole hadn't been such an abomination to this point, the second basemen would also have an easier time blending in.
 
At some point, guys like Dozier fizzle out in extreme fashion. The dead pull power approach decreases in effectiveness as careers get long. I don't think we're there yet (although it's part of the reason I believe Minnesota is right to let him walk this winter), and that's a good thing for the outlook of this lineup going forward. I'd be relatively shocked to see Brian put up 30 homers the rest of the way, but a turnaround shouldn't be anything but expected at this point.
 
Right now, the Twins need Dozier to start his surge. For the sake of his payday following the conclusion of the season, Brian could use that as well.
 
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After two weeks of guiding hiking and birding trips my mind automatically finds feathered beauty and details so, of course, as I move back to the details of baseball my bird attention shifts with it. I see Blue Jays, Orioles, and Cardinals so the transition is easy.
 
Baseball is filled with bird incidents like the pigeon that landed on the field and then wandered over to Greg Bird on first base. There was the Kestrel that entertained Twins fans during a cold and rainy night when it was on the jumbotron catching insects (2010). The Toronto Star reported on an incident with former Twin and Twin City hero – Dave Winfield, “On August 4, 1983, more than 36,000 watched the Toronto Blue Jays play the New York Yankees at Exhibition Stadium. When Yankee star Dave Winfield threw a baseball at the end of the fifth inning warm-up, it came into disastrous convergence with a bird that had been watching in right-centrefield. The bird slumped lifelessly on the Astroturf.
 
“A police officer sitting on the edge of right field thought it was an intentional hit. Winfield said it was an accident. He was taken to 14 Division and charged with causing “unnecessary suffering to an animal.” The charge was later dropped, but the moment never really went away.”
 
The Minneapolis Tribune wrote an article about Gene Glynn, our Minnesota Coach, who watches birds at his home in Waseca. “I find birds in every city in every park near the baseball stadium,” Glynn says. “In Florida the shorebirds are all over the place, on the West Coast it’s all about gulls, terns and herons and in Central Park in New York you can see just about anything. Birds get me outdoors and keep me occupied.”
 
Besides the team baseball has Robins. Like Robin Ventura from the White Sox and Robin Yount from the Brewers and Robin Roberts from the Phillies – a pretty good threesome! Aaron Crow brings another of our common birds to the diamond and Dean and Don Crow had the proverbial cup of coffee. Mike Parrott played from 1977 – 1981.
Hawk Harrelson represents our raptors. Andre Dawson was known as the Hawk too. Turkey Gross in 1925 and Turkey Tyson in 1944 represent the bird that Ben Franklin wanted to replace the eagle as our national symbol. The Eagle was represented by Bill Eagle in 1898 and the Grey Eagle – Tris Speaker, hall of famer.
 
The German word for birds – Vogel – can be found in Otto Vogel from the early 1920’s and Ryan Vogelsong added the lyrics of our avian world too.
 
The Bird is well represented from the diminutive Birdie (actually he was not) Tebbetts, catcher, to Doug Bird, the pitcher who lasted 11 years in the majors. There was also George Bird in 1871, Frank Bird in 1872, and Greg Bird – current. But of course THE BIRD was Mark Fidrych who took the baseball world over during his too brief career.
THE BIRD would go 19 – 9 in his rookie yearwith a 2.34 era in 250 innings and the Tigers were 74 – 88 even with him. His 9.6 WAR and his 1.079 WHIP would satisfy any stathead, but his story goes downhill fast. He lasted five innings and won only 10 more games total and he would only live to be 54. There are numerous bios on Youtube but this one really captures the excitement of his year:
and in books The Bird, by Doug Wilson, but seeing him in a Tigers Uniform that magic summer of his rookie year is something no one could forget. On the ground shaping the mound with his hands, and with his general demeanor Mark connected with the fans. 
Willie Horton, his teammate said at his funeral, “Everyone playing in the major leagues today owes a debt of gratitude to Mark Fidrych. He brought baseball back to the people. He made it popular again. He helped save the game.”
 
Bird came in as the game was at a 1976 low point – owners had a lock out, free agency was just beginning and fans were disgusted. But Bird had such enthusiasm and charisma. People loved it when he talked to the ball, when he ran off the mound to congratulate teammates or when he shook hands with the umpire after the game.
He played for the $16,000 minimum wage and still loved everything about the experience. The unwritten rule (yup, one of those) in those days was not to take curtain calls. The Bird changed that. Described as “gawky, noisy and energetic with a huge mop of curly yellow hair…” he did not look like a typical ball player. In fact, he looked like Big Bird from Sesame Street and that gave him his nickname – a perfect fit.
 
His career ended because of a severely torn rotator cuff, maybe from his 24 complete games, but that was before the TJ surgery and the advances that now save pitchers careers. He was what baseball needs right now, a personality. Burn all the unwritten rules, we need authentic heroes on the diamond, we need real people we can relate to. THE BIRD was a savior and we need more of them. We may have a big fish – Mike Trout – right now, but it is the Bird, Reggie Jackson and others who jump out of the game and into the hearts of the fans that really make baseball.

Why would I diss Dozier? Have you seen what happened to Grossman and Rodney after I dissed them?
 
Rodney has been phenomenal, Robbie much improved so here goes Dozier.
 
Dozier looks sooooo old...I think he's still upset about the Twins refusal to extend him...um Brian you are old and Gordon is coming get it?
 
So old man, start carrying your weight or at least hit it!
 
(might take a few games but his improvement is virtually assured)

#1 DFA the Putrid Bat of Robbie Grossman, while his former ability to get on base was a powerful aphrodisiac, his now lack of ability to hit or walk, has made him an unbearable burden...goodbye and good riddance Robbie
 
#2 -Opportunity lost, the player I have been the most interested in is Mitch Garver, cmon Mitch, hit a little and become the full time catcher, so what does he do? stink it up! Castro couldnt hit a barn and one game after watching the two hitters before him walk on pitches that werent close, what does Castro do? Come up and swing at the first pitch in the dirt..UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Garver you are blowing it big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Garver made it worse on himself by allowing a pitch to glance off his mitt in a key situation, as if if that wasnt bad enough...the then plays a ball in front of the plate worse than a little league catcher...what do we do? wait for Rorveldt i guess...sigh
 
#3 -Close on Rodney......As long as he is our closer we will continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory..Make Reed the Closer...nuff said,