Sabir Aden

I wouldn’t count out the Indians making a last ditch effort this year. Squeeze out the last of this rotation for the present, and they could easily bandage that bullpen in a matter of moments. If the Nats or White Sox are out of it, look out for some quick aid to shore up the secondary relievers. Pure speculation (and contingent on if their in it or not, and are receptive to making deals) but I’ve always had a hunch that Alex Colome, or Kelvin Herrera would avenge their losses and come and deliver one final knockout blow to the Twins. I’m not really sure how this got here, anyways.

These number fluctuate a lot, but I would say the magic number is probably gonna be higher than 90. I think you get lower divison title clinching records with better completion. Look last year at the with the brewers or dodgers. From top to bottom that divison was competitive, and they beat up on each other. So I wouldn’t necessarily that either of these teams will run away with it, but the number maybe like 93 or 94 because it isn’t breaking news, the royals, tigers, and white sox are godawful and whoever both the Indians and the Twins will be provided a cushion so the latter will more likely get a wild card than say perhaps the Rays or Angels.

I’m not really sure on what your getting at with referencing the DH. I just meant their lineup would provide an early indicator for how well-equiped in terms of ‘stuff (or) it factor’ this roster has (more faceted towards the pitching staff then the batting lineup). The Phillies have arguably from 1-6 the most deep lineup in baseball, and from a quality of competition standpoint it would be worth-while to see how they perform against stiff opposition and in a wild and hostile environment. I would key on Taylor Rodgers against Harper and see how that offspeed arsenal will play against a stellar bat. I don’t really get what you’re saying by DH and the lineup not facing quality completion. So far, they’ve faced 3 potential aces in Kluber, Bauer and Carrasco and some more inferior pitchers in Homer Bailey and Brad Keller and haven’t performed spectacularly by any means. Nick Pivetta (starting tonight) is one of my favorite under the radar pitching prospects in the NL (iffy control though, wipeout curveball ala Nola’s curveball), so watch out for his stuff. Obviously Arrieta is in a tier of his own, and Eflin shouldn’t be taken lightly either. I would also point to that the Phillies are among the league leaders in breaking ball percentage, and the Twins typically struggle against breaking balls (curveball and slider), so I would keenly watch that. Oh and Btw, thanks for commenting. Really interesting to listen to other people’s thoughts and/or perception(s). Feel free to add your input in the future. Thanks.

The Twins have played 3% of the scripted schedule, and are on pace to eclipse 130 wins, and a meager 32 losses. Not to mention the Twins are well on their way to capture the division title, but would only be slated to the second seed in the conference seeding chart, playing the mediocre, (but good?) Seattle Mariners in the divisional round. HOLD YOUR HORSES, PEOPLE Consider this. If the entire season was tabulated in the form of a baseball game, meaning that each of the 54 outs recorded in a game would be translated to represent each of the 162 scheduled games, the Twins haven’t even recorded the second out of that very game. That’s a super complicated way of synthesizing that the season is grueling monster, and that 4 games can't really convey any semblance of what the Twins midseason form might be, much less their state come season’s end. Sample size is a word occasionally tossed around as a gauge to what’s legit or not, and no matter how much of a buzzkill word sample size is, it's a small sample size. You can’t go wrong with 4-1, but playing a awfully decimated Indians club and the tantalizingly pesky and obnoxious, but inferior Royals rosters does nothing in solidifying or cementing our far-fetched hopes to a stellar season. So people don't get all worked up or hyped that Byron Buxton’s hitting .500, or that Marwin Gonzalez cannot hold the trigger on a curveball for his life, or that Willians Astudillo is current sizing up as the best hitter in the history of baseball, because the reality of it is that these players either scorching hot or ice cold will eventually fall in line with their typical production outputs, UNLESS there's some superior extraneous force that might mitigate someone’s (wink*wink*Logan Morrison wink*wink*) career slashline. Typically in baseball you don’t see dramatic changes in someone’s batting line for example, and prospect development is a great indicator of this, unless there’s a change in scenery, or shift in a regime (managerial usually). Here is one physical scenario. I wanted to chose someone someone semi-millennial, preferably still active to debate this debate or myth of the hot-hand effect. *(Statistics calibrated in the American League) During the 2013 season, Jose Altuve didn’t have a firm-grip in the major leagues. On a rather atrocious Astros club that had stunk for a long time, spanning back to the Carlos Beltran days, they were scuffling and being spanked in the shadows of their unforsaken superstar. Under manager Bo Porter, unbeknownst to the Astros that they would have 2 MVP candidates and Hank Aaron best hitter awards, under their 2013 disposal (JD Martinez and Jose Altuve), they wound up a travesty rather than a juggernaut, drowning under 4 consecutive seasons of sub-60 win play. After Martinez was run outta town, Jose Altuve barely scraped by as a undrafted free agent and frankly played above expectation with all-star accolade to this credit. Nonetheless he hit .276 during the beginning month of April in 2014, pretty accurate representation of his career to that point. From that point on, Altuve wound up hitting a whopping .357, and vaulting his name into the MVP conversation, and having the best batting average, most hits, and 10th best OPS in the AL for what it's worth. A bargain in my boat, for a player that hadn’t exceeded an average above .290 and amassed a 6.1 WAR after a 2013 WAR of just 1.0! That’s one way you could express how little the first handful of games has on the rest of the season. The Twins postseason road down look as bleak as it did a few years back, however there’s little doubt that the behind the Yanks or Sox, their is a tier of about 3-5 clubs that could contest for the final spot and courtesy to play the latter of the loaded brethren in the AL East. The Rays and Athletics are also both, ballclubs that could collectively catch fire at any point if all things go right respectively, and the Angels aren’t a snooze themselves with perennial sluggers who could easily foil the Twins plan. The final spot should be hotly contested and the Twins need to orchestrate a bunch of runs, and configure somewhat of a capable staff, that has room for improvement. So, if your left partly conforming, or a down the middle perception on this club, that’s okay. I reckon that is the first team in years, that in every department of the roster I could point to that position group carrying the load. The offense is as dynamic and stacked in this century as it ever will be, the starting pitching staff possesses some electric and bat-missing stuff, and the bullpen has the makings of a shutdown backend if things goes according to plan. Not enough yet to be playoff or bust, but something around the ballpark would be fair. So I caution those jumping on the bandwagon and already scoreboard watching, to take the opening week of games with a grain of salt. So those needless stats of the 1 HR, and the insane 0-fer that Eddie Rosario snapped don’t really have tangible effect through the course of a season. Jose Berrios’s 10k, 7⅔ outing was impressive and all that, but really does it do a testament on Jose’s stuff or really just crucifies how mishmashy the Cleveland lineup is in its patchwork. How many times have we heard that the road to the Twins postseason runs will go as far as Buxton and Sano goes? Well the reality check is, Buxton is showing signs of improvement and candidly is playing as purposefully as I've ever seen and Sano isn’t on the roster. More or less, to the antithesis of Sano’s and Buxton’s liability to this team, is how important the newcomers need to perform to keep this team from falling off a cliff. Is it to early to say, that I sense collapse over the horizon? Regardless of how explicitly I may tread to heed caution, I can’t even refrain from excitement, myself. What’s for certain though? That this season will go haywire, for good or bad, and whatever of which will only the heighten the scope of interest on this club. So, (Don’t Jinx it, Don’t Jinx it, DON’T JINX IT) this season gonna be crazy good. The Phillies will provide a great litmus test of superior competition nearing the weeks end, and let’s just hope we give it to them good, and scurry to the Bronx with something more than a .500 record. From the Outer Galaxy of Fantasy, Sabir Aden

♪Tis the season for Spring Training♪, ♪Come Along with me to Fort Myers♪ Not as catchy as I contemplated, but the day pitchers and catchers report usually marks a new focus for the American Sports Landscape. You get predictions, it’s (newly inundated) but the clock’s ticking for free agency crunch time, rosters battles are waged as players jockey for roster positioning, and the fresh aroma of roster cuts lingers through the air. No better time of year, especially since every club is granted a new slate to which to engrave their fate. With the season rapidly approaching, spring training is the time of year which rejuvenates the baseball brethren. You get some real baseball (exhibition practice) but baseball more or less, despite the majority of us being in an absolute winter inferno. Speaking of Spring Training, it's also the time where newly added players begin sporting snazzy and brand new spanking merch and apparel. The Twins have infused their voids with many of these stop-gaps, budget friendly assets through free agency. Martin Perez, Blake Parker, Michael Pineda, Nelson Cruz, and C.J. Cron only begin the conversation of what new faces we probably might see play significant roles during the season. Among the most recently acquired faces, is Marwin Gonzalez. When reports surfaced that the Twins were interested in Gonzalez, let's say I was fairly reluctant that they would incline to pull trigger. And I assure, I wasn’t alone. But, sitting in biology class taking a genetics quiz I nearly lurched outta my seat as my phone buzzed incessentally. Let’s just presume that I wasn’t doing anything against the rules beforehand, but I literally couldn’t not stop smiling after I found out. But to my compadres, me enjoying this reprehensible quiz just added another layer of my peculiarity to my mantle. And in hindsight, I aced that quiz so who’s winning now…. But aside from this tangent, let’s analyze MarWIN, its implications on the roster picture, my horrendous takes on Sano and Buxton, and other housecleaning duties we must confer about because of my long absence (Sorry). Let’s dig’in MarWINS = More Wins? The Twins made some buzz and fairly interesting news on a Friday afternoon a few weeks ago, signing maybe* (we’ll get to that part later…) one of the under the radar gems of the free agency class—Marwin Gonzalez to a very cost-friendly 2 year, 21 million dollar deal. It’s funny how the Twins went from offseason failure to preseason sleepers in a matter of days after striking luck with the versatile man but…. You’ve probably already surfed the internet for some introductory description or sort of primer to what Gonzales provides. But for the sake of those who didn’t here’s a brief report card on the guy the Astros nicknamed Margo (appropriately named)... Dubbed the Jack of all Trades, Swiss Army Knife, Utility Man Extraordinaire and whatnot, Marwin Gonzalez was once a fabulous hitter in 2017. Prognosticators had thought he would have only bulked up the 2018 free agent crop, but a rough 2018 get-go depressed his stats and this suppressed market only further lessened his margins. We’ll get to the intriguing tidbits later, but in short and sweet delivery Marwin succumbed to depreciation-itis and proved to be less a safety valve contributor to the Astros than his 2017 numbers would suggest. Reading around 2017 articles of Marwin, some tabloids had been lobbying for Marwin to push for MVP votes, and in retrospect it’s rather hard to believe. What comes to Marwin’s calling however is his insane versatility. The AL’s closest apparent to Ben Zobrist, Marwin played the role of super-utility during his time down south, and had a breakout 2017 campaign. Gonzalez should at minimum provide exemplary depth, but its clouds my judgement that the Twins went luxury over necessity (pitching). I’m further dumbfounded that bulk inning eaters like Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel still remain waiting for some appealing offers. My dumbfoundedness is further compounded because there isn’t any shortchange of any money to invest in some semi-lucrative contracts. Getting back to Marwin, I kinda do enjoy this veil of obscurity in what your getting in Marwin. So I dived in to his stats an….. Marwin was super lucky in 2017. And he wasn’t in 2018. This explain his nondiscript aberration that soared him up into the 2017 MVP discussion. I spoke about wOBA and expected wOBA in my last article conveniently hyperlinked and located nearby here, but if you’re too lazy like me here’s a short snippet…. [wOBA is simply a synthesized linear statistic where singles/walks are considered as a the primary building block, and incrementally scales a hit as for it’s due result. Expected wOBA is as self-explanatory as it sounds, and just express the quality of contact and how it yields to on field results. Their are some flaws to this that might apply to (X PLAYER) for being left handed, but if a player scorches a frozen rope and persists to label it INTO THE SHIFT, xwOBA would flag that as an unlucky hit, even though the entire left side of the infield is just begging for a bunt down the left field line. This is what hinders the stat, and I haven’t found a way to quantify how much this action has tainted (X PLAYER’s) stat value.] When I used Baseball Savant to tailor the pool with the highest differentials of wOBA and expecting, essentially denoting the most lucky hitters, I found Gonzalez at the top of list with a shocking amount of amassed luck. Which explains why he had a high.303 batting average. I would like to get more in-depth with his OBP and wider array of his totals in 2017 outlier season, but it's clear that luck isn't a sustainable trait and if you want more just go here. This offense now appears more meticulous and premeditated than a patchwork assembly in the years past, and with Gonzalez I think this has some sudden implications. I’m currently at work with my piece for my Opening Day roster prediction, but for now I can tell this lineup is going to kindle a lot of traffic on the bases and by implementing boom in the form of Cruz, Cron and Schoop it has loads of boom or bust potential. I going to admit even I couldn’t have fathomed a offense this dynamic would actually be wearing Twins uniforms coming into the 2019 season. Yet I feel the rhetoric is still glass half empty (alluding to the pitching fronts). Yet I feel this offense can compete with the premier firepower offenses of the AL (on paper at least). Could we be entering the dawn of a monolithic juggernaut? My jaded and (not level headed) convoluted glasses lenses having me saying that. Or I’m probably just super pumped. Speaking of juggernauts, let’s forensically say the Twins offense will cook. I don’t believe that’s a question unless something catastrophic happens which has a funny way of playing out strangely enough?! But on paper I think you have an offense that might mimic the historic (raking) K.C royals in terms of from top to bottom. I could honestly go on and rattle off and outline a parade of heavily optimistic circumstances that each player in this lineup could feasibly do. What this lineup is, is healthy and fruitful and abundant in it’s upside and spunk. If they just played to their abilities we wouldn’t be staring at a constant cycle of depressing yearly season exits that make us dispel our hope. So boys just…... Buxton-hit for average Sano- be 2016 you Kepler- let development journey take in full effect Polanco- play like the 2017 you (without PEDS) Cruz-destroy baseballs Cron- hit as far as those muscles can take you Castro- don’t swing at those high fastballs Schoop- deep soul searching for some all star swagger and lose the rust Rosario- be freakin awesome and all the power to yah So far what the Twins lack in is pitching. But no so long ago, did we see a frontline staff make the postseason with BARTOLO COLON, DILLON GEE, MATT BELISLE, and HECTOR SANTIAGO’s elicit shells manning our staff. Aside from the much more stiffer completion, there resides a little recurring theme in all the Twins moves. They’re banking on the bouncebacks. Hildenberger, Reed, May, Pineda, Buxton, Sano, and many more are players that in a perfectly Twins oriented world should be able to recreate their peak performances or fulfill their prospect potential. All we can do is let it unfold before our eyes. So take a seat back and hunker down on a menacing joyride of hell that is the Twins season. The Buck and Sano Scoop; I’ve been preaching for the Twins to sign a high-caliber relievers to shore up the bullpen all offseason, at such a profound volume that I’m starting to feel like I’m sounding like a broken record. But imagining Kimbrel in our bullpen gets me hyped just even envisioning it, and any passable reliever you’d be even marginally comfortable handling the 9th inning would get my red stamp of approval. This makes me wonder why I would be resistant or even hesitant on with signing a premier commodity over some cheap flyers (no offense) in the case of Gonzo, Cruz and Schoop etc… It’s because of Sano and Buxton. Every coming season since 2014 have I found myself convinced that ‘This is the Year’ and ‘they’re going to flick the switch’ or found myself defending their culpable cases by saying ‘its bound to be time they hit their stride’. But it’s time to set a ultimatum. This year is the final audition year to sparkle just a scintilla of that superstar pulse we’ve all been fixated on eventually showing. But let's be real. I’m going to speak as candidly as I can (maybe to an excess) but this is the season they must either Put up Or shut up. No undisclosed, or half hearted excuses. This is the final tryout act. So let's speak a little speculation, shall we. Let’s say they (Sano and Buxton) spearhead a blistering first half and you hunker down on some legitimate division title hopes. You supplement and complement during the trade deadline and weigh the options of adding a short term implicating star to at least temporarily get you over the hump. We can levy and count our losses if all goes wrong later, but that’s what I would do (yet what am I to believe). But in the case of Buxton and Sano faltering and underperforming you sever your ties and reload with the next wave of incoming prospects (Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Brusdar Graterol etc.) Some rationale has to dictate hope and promise and the end of line repercussions must be enforced. As a faithful and diehard (maybe to my disadvantage) as Twins fans we must stop settling with this modest and mediocre production complex, where this second rate performance is just OK, but frankly the Buck and Sano are underachieving specimens with freak of nature tangibles that can’t muster any of the things you'd expect they could. How many hitters like Sano’s build and frame are there that just strike you as someone who literally could annihilate the baseball and maybe the bat they use to hit it. But they strike out at such an excessive rate that their warts mask their Kodak moments. In reality Sano possesses no athletic mobility, can’t play anything close to passable defense anywhere so they have to be relegated to a 1st basemen role they probably play substandardly (Heck we’ve got 2 of those guys in Tyler Austin, Lucas Duda and toss in C.J. Cron too). In Buxton’s case, I could probably spot and distinguish with identical profiles similar players on every single team. Perhaps the Billy Hamilton’s, Jarrod Dyson’s, Rajai Davis’s, Jose Iglesias’s of the world that are literal speed demons who can flat out fly on the basepaths, and play dynamite outfield/infield D, but can’t muster any kind of sufficiency in their offensive game that they end up contributing as a negative anchor in the grand scheme. Just look at Melvin Upton, who has been staked as a similar player comp. (in the early years when Buxton showed promise) that if you keep a baseline level of competency and competitiveness and you're instantly vaulted into the MVP conversation. Now changes like that are drastic, but say that Buxton hits for average and plays like the 2nd half 2017 phenom he was, and Sano plays exactly like the 1st half 2017 mauler he was. Now you have a expectation setter or baseline ceiling (weirdly redundant) for the on-field product they can yield. In the right mind it's practically inconceivable for me that Buxton and Sano live up to their respective game-wrecker, superstar labels that they were pegged, but rest assured they should be able to contribute a feasible fringe all-star 3 WAR. In that case, at least we get a disclaimer of what were are dealing with they. So….Sano and Buxton…..NO PRESSURE

My Theoretical Mindset during the week; The status quo surrounding the Twins all offseason was their stubbornness and inability to commit to any outside assets (in free agency or on the trade block), yet until recently did the Twins finally break that narrative. But… they were in-house pieces. By committing to two sprightly and talented yet unproven stars, have they overplayed their hand on their future plans? The Twins right now are waltzing into what I would define as, a free-agency sweet spot. Where every added contributor would stabilize a liability, and boost their win total, which are at such a premium. The roster right now looks to be somewhere around the ballpark (lame pun not intended), to a potential spot in the postseason. Granted if nothing goes wrong (i.e injuries, supensions, curses) we could be staring towards a roster destined to secure a playoff, and readily prepared to be supplemented during the trade deadline. The added emphasis on a win or two or in the Twins case, blown-save-catastrophes-galore might end up sinking the ship when it comes to contention. If last year's bullpen collapses weren’t enough for you, I would say by far the Twins weakest position group lies in the most erratic, fragile and frail baseball clusters in all of baseball; the relievers. I spoke about this briefly in my last article, but what Keuchel or more importantly in Kimbrel possess is a semblance of stability so unprecedented that the last guy to be a stabilizer for us, is being inducted into our hall of fame. If we focus on Kimbrel in depth, the guy is as rare of a breed your ever going to find in the relief pitching industry. I’m not going to speak about Kimbrel in depth, but what really matters is that they both (Kimbrel and Keuchel) have walked the walks, and might play that kickstarter-trailblazer kinda player to get this steam boat sailing. Somehow the Twins front office has managed to finagle towards a somewhat competitive roster, and despite not committing to any external assets, keeping the books dry of anything, and keeping the payroll at or equal to ≈ 100 million is a remarkable feat, no doubt about it. But is it time for the Twins front office to relent and issue a blockbuster contract? That’s very debatable. Into the Nitty Gritty with Kepler and Polanco Here’s a basic 101 on how rookie contracts work: This rookie contract system is a focal point of the Collective Bargaining agreement and is tweaked and polished constantly, but it goes as follows; Typically ameuteur hitters agree to a contract with major league clubs coming out of school, or out of the states globally and major league clubs are given a 5 year window on either promoting the player, or releasing him. That promotion would then start the ticking on his 6-7 year free agency departure clock, and would stay with his team through his prime and peak years on a cheap deal, until he would reach free agency (expectedly after he would be years past his best seasons*). During his 3-4 year seasons, the players earns close to nothing on a athletic player scale (I say this because 500k seems like money heaven to me). If the team elects to let the player stick around, when the player hits his 5-7 year season he can contest for a slight raise, provided if both sides agree to a compromise. Until his 7th or 8th year does the player final get his rights to a free departure, and test the market for his free agency rights. *there are exception to this (Nelson Cruz etc). We’ve seen this philosophy catch some steam in the present, with several clubs purchasing the rights of players who aren’t “seasoned or proven”, and maybe haven’t even made it to the league in some cases. What this leaves fans to savor is team friendly-contracts sculpted to buyout years of arbitration, for a couple years of free agency. Theoretically, this consumes the prime or peak years from a player, but is it really worth it. Let’s take a look. *Tabulated according to Spotrac For Kepler and Polanco, we’re seeing a hike in annual pay, over the arbitration years that somewhat amount to as what the players would earn in full amount in free agency. Both Kepler and Polanco have received somewhat mildly-risky contracts. Both have underachieved in their time on the major league spectrum, and in Polanco's case been busted for doping with PEDS. These contracts (5yr, 35 mill & 5yr, 25 mill) aren’t going to hinder or cripple the Twins in the future. What I find to be quite interesting is that the Twins have a healthy and expanding prospect pipeline coursing with talent, and yet they still inclined to purchase the underwhelming services of Kepler and Polanco. According to my fortune predictor (oh boy I’m talented fellow, yeet) these are the scenarios I see turning out. When the Twins finally open the window to a championship pursuit, either… Polanco and Kepler are shrewd bargains Or they both continue to lag Twins lineup, and logjam the outfield rotation (with prospects + Cave) I decided to input Scott Kingery, because I thought his situation with the Phillies is an excellent example of when jumping the gun isn’t as picture perfect as it might seem. His contract is nearly identical in terms with Polanco and Kepler, mainly because they have the same backfire caveats and loopholes in dispatching Kingery once he gets old. Kingery hasn’t developed as rapidly as one would expect his minor league numbers would indicate, and played to the tune of a NEGATIVE W.A.R!!! (-1.5). The Phils thought he would form a dynamite paring with Hoskins and the future skeleton of that team. Instead, Manager Gabe Kapler is juggling at-bats between Maikel Franco and Kingery, who are competing to “win or earn” third base. This just hits me clear in the head as when this doesn’t work as anticipated. Just some added insight…. Both of these scenarios have their pros and cons. You might have to shuffle playing time between the chain of prospects and the fitful likes of Kepler, and/or Polanco. In this case you unload Kepler and/or Polanco for equitable return values, and propel prospects to replace them. Or both Kepler and Polanco emerge as building blocks and thrive, and you yield for a established major league chip, and supplement for an immediate push (hopefully sooner rather than later). The time tables are rough and tweakable, but both the former and latter are good problems to have. In my mind the extinction of the concept for paying someone for what they’re worth is truly baffling me. It strikes me as that teams are playing with fire and lottery tickets, and trying to pull a quick on the player/(s). The truth to the matter is they aren’t premising the agreement toward constructive proof but rather on whim, Lady Luck, and canniness. Even with the comprehensive and elaborate analytics (which I’m all for, frankly) I don’t think it’s plausible in the right shape of mind to predict someone future who hasn’t set a baseline for what their ascension might be. For all I know, Kepler could go and revert into a complete shell of himself and morph into the eternal spirit of Nick Punto. That might be a little far-fetched, but the guy hasn’t established himself as any kind of consistent regular. He isn’t a ‘proven’ left handed vs left handed hitter (granted he improved from his abysmal marks from a year ago, but there’s a lot more left to be desired). He could turn into a complete sponge against lefty’s, and be relegated to an exclusive platoon role against righties. He’s an admirable right-fielder whose play is fairly consistent, but nothing out-worldly ala The Buck. Could he be in line for a regression? I guess that’s up to him. Typically young players similar to Kepler and Polanco both experiences growing pains, and excruciatingly painful rough patches, but what usually leaves with people is that semblance of promise and hope that a player instills into a fanbase. Kepler and Polanco are by no means generational cornerstone players, but what Kepler and Polanco possess is that consistency a team as inconsistent as the Twins desperately needs. Every position has been a constantly rotating carousel of prospects, and the Twins decided to shore this up, by agreeing to terms with Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco each on intriguing multi year contract that speak to the mindset of the Falvine Front Office. I guess I’m playing Devil’s Advocate right now, because I’m sputtering trying to unravel their rationale. There aren’t many other motives for Kepler &co and Polanco &co not to reject these deal like this. This is guaranteed money your dealing with, and the signals and indicators in this suppressed markets wouldn’t sway them that they would command much more (or any offers at all) in the open market. I wanted to take a closer examination at Kepler’s logic in this, because I find much more faith in Polanco, RF is a much more vital to Target Field, and granted he got the more lucrative contract. In Kepler’s case, in some ways your betting with yourself; do you believe that Kepler would turn into a monster player and demand a lucrative contract, or do you settle with what in turn is an appealing and secure the offered multi year deal. It’s as playing with fire in the Twins perspective, and in light of him settling you could deconstruct this in either two way: 1. I’m concerned that Kepler would settle with a buy-low contract like this and is satisfied with staying average 2. Or the Twins got an absolute steal of a player. The downsides and upsides are obviously staring us in the eyes. The guys looks he’s a got plenty of a Major League regular’s tools, but the intangibles are worrisome to me. He looks flustered, and stoic at the plate. His demeanor is “I’m under radar, so don’t notice me”. But he’s got those flashes of phenom and potential like he could rake, on an at bat to at bat basis. He got a great, pretty left handed stroke (if that’s worth anything). During 2018, we saw, provided if he hunkers down and locks in that he could hit lefties and for power. 2018 was the year he exorcised those demons and the knocks of his same handed ineptness, and not to mention he’s an above average right fielder. That’s what scares me locking into a promising yet unproven commodity. I have hunch that Kepler’s in for a breakout, quasi- bounceback campaign. I conjured up 7 imperative objectives, if Kepler wants to exponentially improve, and turns his contrast into a bargain. Don’t regress Don’t becomes injured (is that harsh?) Rake and Clobber Don’t flail to back-foot breaking ball Keep Smoking the Ball (Guy is getting better over career) Keep hitting lefties, Let development take its course (don’t rush it) - I literally had this stray though, but what if players get mad at their annual salary and if they’re not getting due compensation, play below their abilities. In this case, does Kepler play to the boundary of his abilities? Just on a side tangent, I stumbled on something interesting when looking through Kepler’s Numbers….. I recall times last year that Kepler had his extreme cold spells and fits at the plate, and I wanted to see how much of this was a byproduct of bad luck. wOBA is simply a synthesized linear statistic where singles/walks are considered as a the primary building block, and incrementally scales a hit as for it’s due result. Expected wOBA is as self-explanatory as it sounds, and just express the quality of contact and how it yields to on field results. Their are some flaws to this that might apply to Kepler (for being left handed), but if a player scorches a frozen rope and persists to label it INTO THE SHIFT, xwOBA would flag that as an unlucky hit, even though the entire left side of the infield is just begging for a bunt down the left field line. This is what hinders the stat, and I haven’t found a way to quantify how much this action has tainted Kepler’s stat value. But other than that, the stat has enlightened me with some tell-tale suspicions that Kepler slumps have accentuated because of the fact he is inducing himself into slumps. I added Trout’s statistic because quite honestly, the guy is the poster boy of hitting and is a golden standard benchmark stat. The reason why we don’t see the traditional pronounced periodical slumps in Trout, (IMO) is because Trout has found a way to amplify his stretches of success, and mask the monstrosities of his slumps and skids, which help maintain sparkling wOBA’s. (Or maybe he’s just too good to be bad????) This is an excellent inherent trait to have, because... It’s a great sign of a confidence booster It reinforces & enhances your overall stat...➡️ (Solid+Amazing=Really Good) This all might be baloney, but I find it interesting that Kepler’s more distinct patches of droughts tend to follow the Expected wOBA. The thing is, events like this are very common young hitters, (Heck, in real life too). Kepler rides the Hot-Hand like a wave, but when he hits his lows he virtually touches rock bottom. I just find it intriguing that this kinda-gives us a view to Kepler’s psyche during this plate appearances, to my understanding. Is it that Kepler’s gloom and doom approach at the plate is making that his Expected wOBA mimics and dampens his wOBA? That’s the real question…... I bet my theory will get invalidated, but I think this hints toward some better and consistent productions from Kepler in this upcoming season. Maybe just a little forward thought, the vote of confidence upstairs, in this new contract, encouragement from the staff, and some years under the belt will aid Max in carving-it-up in the Bigs. But if Kepler gets better (which I’m all inclined to believe), and if his performance does ride along an expected course, Kepler’s 8th and 7th year salaries are at complete bargain bottom prices. I also believe to some minuscule or macroscopic level (or really anything in between), that this instills some motivation into players. Disregarding why people rip players who pale in comparison near nothing to the owners, it’s a vote of confidence from the Front Office. It’s not like them handing contracts is routine kinda thing, and it issues sort of closure or something close after all summer people were calling for their collective heads. I do like these contracts, if that’s what you came to read this for, but still believe (no matter how much the PR department iterates it), where Buxton and Sano go, so do the Twins. I do hope success for all these player because they will take the fall if everything crashes and burns. Both Sano and Buxton in my mind aren’t ever going to have a year of this magnitude to prove doubters and/or the FO they were destined for stardom. To make the postseason I think the Journey runs right square through Buxton and Sano cascades, and to qualify to the playoffs I think it’s unequivocally contingent if Sano and Buxton rise to the occasion. This all surmises to probably befuddling you more prior to reading my tyrade/spiel but let’s simplify into simpler terms; if Kepler plays at or near a 4-5 WAR per year,(which is roughly fringe all-star level) this contract is a boon for the Twins. It's a bust if Kepler plays to a 1-3 WAR level (because the Twins have plenty of role players to insert). This also applies to some degree with Polanco.

Wow, you should really become a full time writer. Reading your stuff, the way you convey your message in a funny way is really hard to do, and you do it so well. Props

If you don’t already know the Minnesota twins inked the former Ranger southpaw, and well seasoned veteran Martin Perez to a short 1 year compact, to what seems to be a lackluster effort to “fortify the rotation.” Now we can interpret this transaction whatever way we deem to be fit, but the Twins projected rotation lines up as…. Middling at best.With the likes of two potentially elite pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel standing pat for a desirable bidder, this has caught the chagrin of Twins rage twitter, and you can’t blame them. Imagine inserting Kimbrel or Keuchel into the pitching staff, and the added perks would benefit all parties involved including the most important; rectifying the vast abyss of Twins rants on the interwebs. It isn’t any secret that the Twins have loads of room to supplement the roster to make a bid for the division. With the Indians unloading after 3 years of reigning as division champions, and the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox currently having no plans other the than tanking, the crease is there for the Twins to make a run for the Indian’s money and to snap a near decade for a division title deprived fanbase. Even to that tangent, what even is more baffling is that the Twins have an unprecedented allotment of salary (I felt so deeply compelled to say cap room) on the checkbook or whatever ledger the stingy twins utilize to organize their expenses. As Minnesotan Fans, we are so inherently adept to mediocrity and heartbreak, it’s as if misery is in our compatible middle name. But in this instance, there’s only room to spectate and to be optimistic, which is undoubtedly a tough pill to swallow. The Ugly on Perez The ugly is so glaringly obvious. The kid pitched to the horrendous tune of a 6.22 ERA last season and owns a below average 4.63 ERA. He’s got a poor career 4.44 FIP, and doesn’t strike people out. Watching some footage of his former* (as in last season he was converted into a reliever because he was so awful) starts, the guy doesn’t have an appealing secondary pitch, his control is rather iffy, and his changeup has fallen off a cliff since its former dominance prior to his injury. Speaking of injury, the guy spent 3 stints on the disabled in only the past year, has operated on for Tommy John, and is as far as away from durable as Minnesota is from Texas. The Bad The thing Perez isn’t terrible because he’s bad. As contradictory as it sounds, he isn’t necessarily by any means as pitiful as he appears. Looking at the tape, its as if his performance rides a rollercoaster. During the first inning, the guy is as rocky ever. He gets in many hitters count, can’t find the zone, and gets rocked once he does in 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, or 3-2 counts. But strangely he settles down and is frankly razor sharp with precision in the middle innings. That sinker-changeup combo is to die for on the edge of the plate, and reminds me a lot of….JA Happ. I think toggling with his sinker/four-seamer to changeup ratio, and maybe a change of scenery would do him wonders. Not to mention, GLP in Arlington is no easy place to pitch, because the ball CARRIES out there. The Good, and How to enhance it??? Believe or not, Perez once was pegged inside the Top 100 prospects in the Baseball America’s 2010 edition. Don’t think because of this though, that I expect him to fulfill his top billing as a prospect. The guy has upside which at this point is hard to believe. But as I watched the tape, he isn’t the doormat pitcher as his number would indicate. He’s a solid and competent enough pitcher in the middle innings and is maybe or not a little shaky-nervous at game tilt. Beyond that, he’s got excellent above-average velocity from a left-handed starter. His relative youth and exuberance leaves room for hope of improvement, and he’s 28. He also is a ground ball demon and induces a well above average GB rate, and at worst is a decent innings eater. We’ve seen this regime sign the flyer free agent, as referencing last year’s Anibal Sanchez reclamation project. After looking at Sanchez’s pitch usage, there’s nothing at first glance that collasally has changed. But taking a deeper dive, we can see that Anibal has surged up in his career ranks in Chase%, Pitches out of the Zone%, and overall Strikeouts%. But his pitch movements, usages, and varying peripherals haven’t drastically changed. What can be attributed to this surge is pitch sequencing. Sanchez better utilized his changeup in complement because he threw the pitch out of the zone. He Split-Finger had a career-high strikeout rate in volume, and had the most minuscule SLG percentage in terms of volume pitched. He cutback the vertical movement of his 12-6 curve, and upped the ante of his split-finger that fit perfectly to a series of pitches (sinker, cutter, split) that better suited his repertoire, featuring horizontal movement. Which is a primary reason why Anibal had a renaissance season. I mention this because.. Anibal was once a former project Perez bears a striking resemblance to Sanchez, in their deficiencies. All of this surmounts to absolute and utter baloney if Perez resists in reinventing himself as a pitcher. This, however, does include an unorthodox approach, and completing throwing the entire baseball manual out the window, and tinkering with breaking balls. Look at the Rich Hill’s and the Drew Pomeranz of the world, and we’ve even seen Tyler Duffey rely on an off-speed pitch more than his fastball firsthand. Albeit none of this pitchers are All-Star commodities, they all in some capacity became better to some extent by heavily depending on their secondary stuff. There’s no denying Martin Perez is a fully capable and average enough MLB arm, but the real question remains; Will Martin Perez be open to tinker his arsenal, and if not were the Twins better suited to have unleashed a prospect in his place? That remains to be seen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZOeXGX0sfY[/ My virtual fake money is betting on that Wes Johnson and company already have recognized this, and have a plan waiting to be set in motion. My suggestions are pretty rudimentary, but they follow along on a general theme. Adjust and configure Perez’s pitches to align with his strengths. Just a rogue modification of mine for the sake of hypothetical satisfaction; steer towards an arsenal of the basis of vertical movement, (by tinkering with the cutter), reduce the amount of curves, increase the ratio of sliders:curves, and intensify the changeup as a wipeout pitch (which comes in further developing the arm side run, Ala Dallas Keuchel). This isn’t a foolproof formula for immediate results, but over a long term sample size, it's more than likely that Perez’s results would be slightly better than before. There are models of success that radically changed many players careers (i.e JA Happ etc.) that follow the same general blueprint; gear towards a players strength, and wait to experience slight success (snazzy rhyming jingle huh? And if this completely backfires, convert Perez into the bullpen, transition him into a killer LOOGY (he’s seriously a death on lefty guy, look at his numbers) and deal him during the trade deadline for some fringe B- to C prospect and look to take another bite at the apple next year.