Sabir Aden

Omg, I wish I could join!

Since June 1, no team’s top three relievers have a lower wOBA than the group of Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May. Approaching their first postseason foray since 2010, no bullpen group, save perhaps the Rays, will face more heavy lifting than this trio. The Twins starting pitching has taken significant blows since June 1.In 2015, the Royals pioneered the strategy of five-and-dive starters, and allowed the pen to handle the rest. The merits of relievers now rests in the seventh through ninth innings, and given the Twins recent playoff demons that should bring nightmarish flashbacks. Bullpens are a focal point of postseason success. In the 2017 wildcard game, Ervin Santana was yanked three innings into his start. Luis Severino, the Yankees starter was also removed on a much shorter hook after just 1/3 of an inning with three runs already allowed. It's no safe assumption a starter will go five innings or 100 pitches. Shutdown starters and unhittable closers get all the glory, but the unsung heroes of the past season, such as Josh Hader, are much more valuable than they get credit for. Trevor May has received his fair share of criticism. Saturday night’s display of pure dominance predicated on fastball command would be a welcomed sight in the postseason. More breaking ball usage and less dependence on a flat changeup could perhaps be enough for May. A much smoother finish with his mechanics, and not leaving as many pitches in the whomping zone of hitters have been helpful for Trevor. Since his bad stretch of home runs he has lost all trust in his curve, which could fuel more good fortune. Download attachment: HardHitHeat.png May has had the year of his life in 2019. He had a promising end to his 2018 campaign that saw him flash the truly elite stuff that he flashed as a middling fourth/fifth starter in the dawn of his career. He’s bumped his velocity up considerably, and lately has sliced his pitch assortment, providing a better directive to his mound mindset. Taylor Rogers might be the most underrated pitcher, perhaps even player, in baseball thanks to his above average fastball and frisbee slider. A bullpen absent the invincible Aroldis Chapman fireball, or the radioactive cutter of Kenley Jansen, or the capital C-declared closer, might be an assembly of relief pitchers as effective, or more so, than any other in baseball. If there was one point of criticism for Rogers, I would point to the curveball and slider blending together. But that in no way detracts from the set of weapons that he has, and that the Twins have, that their playoff success could hinge on. Tyler Duffey might be the most remarkable story of the entire season for the Twins. He flamed-out as a starter in 2016 and followed with a pair of enigmatic seasons. At the tipping point of his career, he took on a complete overhaul, reinvention and refinement of his mechanics and approach under the tutelage of Wes Johnson. Duffey was taught sinkers inside and low, during the Rick Anderson, Neil Allen and Garvin Alston regimes. Jace Frederick of the Pioneer Press recently wrote an article that delved into Duffey's progress that included some illuminating quotes. Duffey spoke to how different Wes Johnson's mentality is. “Obviously I had the potential to be good, but it was seeing why I could be, understanding why I could be, and then doing it and repeating was the last piece of that. I think for me, personally, it’s just been trusting the whole plan that’s been set and going with it. “Pitching with conviction is the name of the game. Hitters can tell when you’re not convicted in what you’re doing. I think I’m trusting it, I feel good doing it and the results are speaking for themselves.” “He can be a strikeout guy, and he’s learned that,” Johnson said. “When we started back in spring training, our goal was to strike out more hitters than we ever have. We’re getting there, incrementally. And Tyler is someone you’re seeing make progress really fast.” The intuitive and tailored recipe for success spearheaded with the ongoing trend of elevating, decelerating and spiking. Fastballs up, sliders and curves down and away, and toggling with the velocity of those breakers has paved the way to a 2.35 ERA and a 1.0 WAR during this 2019 run to the postseason. A truly remarkable achievement for a pitcher once on the bubble. For the Twins to succeed in the postseason, a strong back-end of the bullpen must complement a competent starting staff. It could be a feasible plan, given that the trio of Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers has arrived and they are here to stay. Click here to view the article

Tough Criticism. I never in the article said that Pineda’s injury history or PEDs should be specifically ignored in the aggregate, but expecting him to trend upwards and not downwards would and should be a realistic possibility coupled with a low price tag, making him a very realistic option for resigning. There has never been a baseball team to enter the season with 5, and come out with 5 starters with 30+ starts in who knows how long. That’s just reality now. And given three roster spots have come open, the fruits for possibility are endless. I thought exploring this possibility was intriguing and that I’d get mixed bag reactions. I assumed that readers would enter this with open, impartial view and not be vindictive and resentful. Obviously I was wrong. I apologize if my content wasn’t up to your standards. I’ll try harder next time.

I should premise before you guys blast me, I was trying to lobby for why Pineda should be considered as much a candidate as any other free agent pitcher. That was the purpose Not to rail against the ramifications of PEDs to be accepted as another offset of the game.

Michael Pineda's current contract with the Twins will end with him under suspension. So his comeback season was tainted and this is the end of the story for him in Minnesota, right? Wrong. He's among the best free agent starting pitchers and this will be a Twins team thirsty for rotation help.We all have that perception of what PEDs looks like. Artificial, manufactured bulk. Insatiable supplement drive. Drug-hungry monsters covered with knots and curls of the synthetic side-effects of the phony, lifestyle they can only bootleg themselves into believing. Above all, they’re cheaters. We all have dismay and disdain for cheaters, and its palpable. The inequity of those that load themselves with anabolics over those that play natural is stigmatic enough, but the impression that those cheaters are head and shoulders above competitors while playing with an abnormal, unfair and skewed advantage, especially when the PEDS are wildly condemned, is truly preposterous. Was Michael Pineda even using PEDs? All we know he has been suspended for testing positive for a drug identified as a masking agent, but that fact teams feel it's necessary to censor and exempt those who "juiced" before entering the free agent market doesn’t make sense. Since 2010 there have been 26 players of notable significance to be suspended by the MLB for PEDs juicing. Download attachment: WARimage.png And as you can, this graph pretty much debunk the myth that players with juicing ‘enhanced’ their performance by yielded results by aggregate. The Twins face crucial decisions in regard to all three of their pending free agent starting pitchers. As the gap between legitimate starters becomes wider, it’s especially crucial for teams to equip themselves with effective starters. With his climbing velocity and swinging strike percentages, I would especially encourage the Twins to approach Pineda with an extension. This may be more of the fact that Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson pose more concerns. History has shown that after Tommy John surgery, velocity actually increases. Pineda was also showing impressive command. Of any free agent pitcher to have thrown 1,000 pitches this season, Michael Pineda leads every single one of them (including Gerritt Cole) in Quality Of Pitch Average. QOP is a patent-pending proprietary regression model that factors in mph, location, and movement (vertical break, horizontal break, breaking distance and rise). Not that Gerritt Cole wouldn’t be my dream acquisition, but location and movement gives a better testament to the longevity and success of a pitcher. This coupled with rising velocity, an insanely good knack for hitting the strike zone (third of any free agent pitcher) and three pitches trending above average (changeup, fastball and slider) make Pineda an even more appealing candidate. Reasons why the Twins shouldn't consider a reunion with Pineda are few and far between. They more than likely lie in the composition of your own values, ethics and morals than the actual product. Nelson Cruz is a prime example of why you shouldn’t allow a failed PED test to influence your psyche, because Cruz ended up posting a 3.6 WAR season after his suspension. The even more important thing I want to bring to light is the reasoning behind the PEDs usage. Below is Pineda's statement after the suspension was announced. “I mistakenly took a medication that was given to me by a close acquaintance, who obtained it over-the-counter and assured me it would safely help me manage my weight. I ingested a a few of these pills without the consent of the Twins’ training staff. Testing revealed trace elements of a substance called Hydrochloride, which is a banned diuretic under baseball’s testing program.” Take it for what it’s worth, but the fact that he felt it was necessary for him to regulate his weight is a deeply ingrained perspective, grounded in and molded by the stereotypes we insist players must adhere to. How often do we as fans judge players with striking weight or size problems and reduce them with slander saying they can't perform? I consider it bigotry that someone with weight issues should be slandered because of his weight, and anything below excellent performance be pointed to as a corollary aftereffect of that dysfunction. So would it be fair to say that the suspension may have been the net result of our preconceived notions that drove him to search for weight recovery? Let me know what you think in the comments. Please follow me for more discussion @Sabir_Aden. Click here to view the article

Usually I don’t like Dick Bremer calling twins games, but that was my favorite call of his.

Really good summation!

The Twins bullpen has been among the best in the entire league. Still, many Twins fans don’t seem to like the team’s chances against the American League’s powerhouses in the postseason. With the inevitable arrival of the most-hyped Twins pitching prospect in the last decade, however, there’s an argument to be made that the depth of the Twins bullpen matches up with anybody.Since the All-Star break, the Twins have baseball’s best SIERRA (a better or more comprehensive branch of FIP), and K-BB% a very good indicator of sustainably- sterling pitching, even while posting baseball’s highest zone per pitch%. We expected Wes Johnson to initiate some velocity increases, but he’s also helped a few relievers unleash some more bite on their breaking pitches. Download attachment: RogersDuffeyMay.png Velocity has risen, the sharpness of break along with the tunneling of those pitches in relation to fastball location has improved, and in turn that’s led to more strikeouts and weaker contact. Tyler Duffey is an interesting experiment, and they’ve built a rapport with using the fastball as a catalyst to set up the wipeout slider, a new pitch he believes is just a harder thrown version of his former knucklecurve. With improved control, Trevor May has been an appealing seventh-inning guy to watch. Taylor Rogers, once was a generic LOOGY, is now perhaps the most impactful left-handed reliever in baseball excluding Felipe Vazquez. A 1.9 WAR is absolutely insane! Do you remember the old Rogers, Duffey, and May? They all relied on softer secondary stuff to get away with the weaker fastballs they had previously. Now armed and loaded with fastball velocity, they still haven’t ventured too far (apart from May) from their old plan of attack. What’s important to note is the current assembly of Twins pitchers is perfectly able at proving capable in the postseason. In Extra Innings, a book by Baseball Prospectus, Ben Lindbergh advocated for relievers to be picked at the margins or be groomed through the system once failing as starting pitchers. It’s an interesting proposal. Don’t ever buy a reliever because he'll often turn out to be a poor investment. Instead, build your bullpen with roster casualties and scuffling relievers that good teams feel they can’t wait to get better. Download attachment: FA contract WAR.png The Twins haven’t been the most hardcore adherents to this system of thinking. They jettisoned Nick Anderson, Nick Burdi, JT Chargois and others for guys that may or may not have been past their primes on the free-agent market. That Addison Reed, Matt Belisle, Dillon Gee and Craig Breslow were all acquired under the Falvine regime, might be the result of fan pressure than actual thorough analysis on the makings of on-the-margin acquisitions. Guys like Tanner Rainey, Nick Anderson, Brendan Brennan, Austin Adams and Ty Buttrey were all traded in low-profile deals and turned out to be dynamic relievers. The Twins found innovative ways to hire intuitive and introspective thinkers to take on these projects in Duffey, May, Rogers and others. This bullpen is stacked with assorted gadgets and analytical fireman. So here’s my postseason bullpen predictions…. Multi Inning Firemen; Brusdar Graterol (RHP) / Taylor Rogers (LHP) Set Up; Sam Dyson (RHP) / Trevor May (RHP) Situational; Tyler Duffey (RHP) / Trevor Hildenberger (RHP) / Sergio Romo (RHP) Swiss Army Knife; 1 OF EITHER Martin Perez (LHP) / Zack Littell (RHP) Not included on the postseason roster: Randy Dobnak (RHP), Sean Poppen (RHP), Cody Stashak (RHP), Lewis Thorpe (LHP), Ryan Harper (RHP), Devin Smetlzer (LHP). Click here to view the article

I looked into the numbers, and his 4 seam between his stretch and windup is 0.1 mph off, and two seam is 0.4 mph off, so I think we could definitively strike that as inconclusive, or at least inconsequential for the time being given that the numbers correlate to his career marks. It’s certainly a intriguing observation, and in theory you’d believe that it did (stretch would zap velo). But it’s actaully the converse of that, where pitcher velocities sometimes go up, or stay saddled. I guess Parker would have a good rebuttal, but you’d have to ask him.

NO thank you for reading.

Yeah, Jose had some abnormally weird release points pockets in his chart, which may signal there is a change in something like maybe grip, or overworking the pronation of his pitches. https://twitter.com/Sabir_Aden/status/1166213643496841216 You can see how sporadic they are from start to start, and you have to imagine not throwing from the same window can’t really be a positive factor, for a guy whose had trouble replicating his delivery in his career. I looked into the release point pockets when I was writing this, I think I asked one of the driveline guys in the article about overpronating that changeup and I assumed that overpronation would lead to more spin which would validate my hypothesis that he’s overpronating and lowering his arm slot, and they said you can’t really “add” spin to your pitches. It’s more of an innate talent you get. I recently followed up with one of them, and they said…. “Not sure if this is the case with Berrios but we do see a lot when an athlete is trying to add or improve a pitch that requires the spin axis to shift they may alter mechanics slightly or more so arm slot slightly to get the desired axis shift as opposed to adjusting how the ball comes out of the hand or wrist orientation into and at release.” When we talk about extension, so his landing spot on the rubber I think that’s even more noticeable. We talk about this extension then leading to perceived velocity, and lately his extension has been down, this is just another inducing instrument to lowering his velocity (like you said, which is very essential to him). You’d think it’s very weird. He’s been pitching from a 5.5ft to 7.3ft extension domain span all season long. But guys like Verlander and Cole who’ve had their fair share of success use the same 2ft to 3ft window when they pitch, so I’d probably cross that off. Here below is Jose’s changeup from 1st half to 2nd Half (white is 2nd, blue and red is 1st) and you can see the noticeable differences you alluded to. P.S Thanks for the nice complement. You’ve been the only twins writer that I’ve known that constantly pursues what the twins are trying to teach, and not the on-field product over the years. I really tried to replicate my work to be as clean and airtight as yours so thanks. Means a lot Oh yeah and btw you should follow me