Twins Fan From Afar

What a strange season. I didn't think the Twins would be playing decent baseball as the calendar switched to July. I didn't think that Byron Buxton would be up, after his essentially lost 2014 season. I didn't think Trevor May would be (as of late) the team's most dominant starting pitcher. And I sure didn't think this proverbial ragtag bunch of misfits would -- if the season ended today -- be a wild card playoff team.
 
I thought 2015 would be the season where players like Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Kennys Vargas, May, Danny Santana, and Alex Meyer would get extended opportunities to figure it out by playing games that, after May or June, really didn't matter. You know -- let them take the Rochester shuttle, figure out the league, and hopefully come back ready to contribute in 2016, when players like Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios were ready to join the team.
 
But here we are. As it turns out, games in July will matter. It will matter this season whether Trevor May can be the reliable starter we want him to be; it will matter whether Kennys Vargas can hit consistently enough to stay in the lineup and contribute to a winning team. I don't think this team can keep this pace for the rest of the season, but they don't have to, in order for things to get interesting. The trade deadline is just over 5 weeks away, and if the Twins somehow stay within a few games of that last wild card spot, I really wonder what will happen.
 
The decent play and the current standings put the front office in a potentially interesting position. After 4 awful, awful seasons, the organization can hardly sit idly by if the team has another good few weeks and stays in the hunt. There are places for improvement -- bullpen, shortstop, designated hitter. But there are also guys the Twins drafted, developed, and have shown patience with, that deserve opportunities to succeed, fail, and learn in those positions. Isn't that, after all, a major component of a rebuild?
 
Sure, the best DH on the trade market makes the Twins better for the next 3 months, but that person does not make the Twins a World Series contender, or, perhaps, even likely to win the AL Central. And while that guy gets the at-bats, Vargas, and even Miguel Sano (who should be up relatively soon) sit and gather dust -- or at the very least, don't improve.
 
Last season especially, I loved to criticize Terry Ryan. It was easy. Low-hanging fruit sometimes. And Gardy. But I'm honestly not sure what buttons Terry Ryan should press this July if the team keeps hovering near the wild card, and I'm not sure how much Paul Molitor should press Ryan. I firmly believe that the organization owes -- yes, owes -- the fans something after the last 4 miserable seasons, and after ownership admitted not pushing enough in "the good years." But this is certainly not the year to go all-in -- to trade good or great prospects for a rental player, no matter how good that player is. For better or worse, we all -- fans and organization -- are way too far into this rebuild to scrap important segments of it for an unrealistic pennant chase.
 
Perhaps the best-case scenario is that, over the next month, the Twins slowly but steadily fall out of the wild card race. 2015 will still be a vast improvement over 2011-2014, and the rookies can get valuable, (relatively) low-stress experience. But that isn't very satisfying, is it? I want this team to keep it up. For the love of God, I want Mike Pelfrey to be the best pitcher in the American League, and I want Alex Meyer to come out of nowhere and become a great set-up man. I guess I want this raw, strange team to force Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor to get creative. Find out a way (not just Alex Meyer and Miguel Sano) to improve this team without sacrificing the future. Potentially a tough task, but it would be nice to have confidence in the front office once again.

What a strange season. I didn't think the Twins would be playing decent baseball as the calendar switched to July. I didn't think that Byron Buxton would be up, after his essentially lost 2014 season. I didn't think Trevor May would be (as of late) the team's most dominant starting pitcher. And I sure didn't think this proverbial ragtag bunch of misfits would -- if the season ended today -- be a wild card playoff team.
 
I thought 2015 would be the season where players like Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Kennys Vargas, May, Danny Santana, and Alex Meyer would get extended opportunities to figure it out by playing games that, after May or June, really didn't matter. You know -- let them take the Rochester shuttle, figure out the league, and hopefully come back ready to contribute in 2016, when players like Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios were ready to join the team.
 
But here we are. As it turns out, games in July will matter. It will matter this season whether Trevor May can be the reliable starter we want him to be; it will matter whether Kennys Vargas can hit consistently enough to stay in the lineup and contribute to a winning team. I don't think this team can keep this pace for the rest of the season, but they don't have to, in order for things to get interesting. The trade deadline is just over 5 weeks away, and if the Twins somehow stay within a few games of that last wild card spot, I really wonder what will happen.
 
The decent play and the current standings put the front office in a potentially interesting position. After 4 awful, awful seasons, the organization can hardly sit idly by if the team has another good few weeks and stays in the hunt. There are places for improvement -- bullpen, shortstop, designated hitter. But there are also guys the Twins drafted, developed, and have shown patience with, that deserve opportunities to succeed, fail, and learn in those positions. Isn't that, after all, a major component of a rebuild?
 
Sure, the best DH on the trade market makes the Twins better for the next 3 months, but that person does not make the Twins a World Series contender, or, perhaps, even likely to win the AL Central. And while that guy gets the at-bats, Vargas, and even Miguel Sano (who should be up relatively soon) sit and gather dust -- or at the very least, don't improve.
 
Last season especially, I loved to criticize Terry Ryan. It was easy. Low-hanging fruit sometimes. And Gardy. But I'm honestly not sure what buttons Terry Ryan should press this July if the team keeps hovering near the wild card, and I'm not sure how much Paul Molitor should press Ryan. I firmly believe that the organization owes -- yes, owes -- the fans something after the last 4 miserable seasons, and after ownership admitted not pushing enough in "the good years." But this is certainly not the year to go all-in -- to trade good or great prospects for a rental player, no matter how good that player is. For better or worse, we all -- fans and organization -- are way too far into this rebuild to scrap important segments of it for an unrealistic pennant chase.
 
Perhaps the best-case scenario is that, over the next month, the Twins slowly but steadily fall out of the wild card race. 2015 will still be a vast improvement over 2011-2014, and the rookies can get valuable, (relatively) low-stress experience. But that isn't very satisfying, is it? I want this team to keep it up. For the love of God, I want Mike Pelfrey to be the best pitcher in the American League, and I want Alex Meyer to come out of nowhere and become a great set-up man. I guess I want this raw, strange team to force Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor to get creative. Find out a way (not just Alex Meyer and Miguel Sano) to improve this team without sacrificing the future. Potentially a tough task, but it would be nice to have confidence in the front office once again.

2014
Kevin Correia. 23 starts. 4.94 ERA.
Johan Pino. 11 starts. 5.07 ERA.
Sam Deduno. 8 starts. 4.6 ERA.
Anthony Swarzak. 4 starts. 4.6 ERA.
Logan Darnell. 4 starts. 7.13 ERA.
Mike Pelfrey. 5 starts. 7.99 ERA.
Tommy Milone. 5 starts. 7.03 ERA.
Kris Johnson. 3 starts. 4.73 ERA.
 
2013
Mike Pelfrey. 29 starts. 5.19 ERA.
Scott Diamond. 24 starts. 5.43 ERA.
Pedro Hernandez. 12 starts. 6.83 ERA.
Liam Hendriks. 8 starts. 6.85 ERA.
PJ Walters. 8 starts. 5.95 ERA.
Cole De Vries. 2 starts. 10.80 ERA.
 
2012
Nick Blackburn. 19 starts. 7.39 ERA.
Liam Hendriks. 16 starts. 5.59 ERA.
Anthony Swarzak. 5 starts. 5.03 ERA.
Carl Pavano. 11 starts. 6.00 ERA.
PJ Walters. 12 starts. 5.69 ERA.
Jason Marquis. 7 starts. 8.47 ERA.
Esmerling Vasquez. 6 starts. 5.68 ERA.
 
Ron Gardenhire took the fall yesterday for 4 seasons of disgusting baseball. That decision was correct. Baseball is a business. And lately, business hasn't been good for the Twins. After the press conference, I was left thinking, "well, that was pretty good as far as those things go. Very Minnesotan, really. But why the hell does Terry Ryan still have a job?" And it's still bothering me today.
 
As Gardy and Ryan both noted, the reason the manager got canned is because the team didn't win enough games. For sure, Gardy was a contributor to that. Guys were played out of position, he refuses to platoon players, the Twins are among the least likely teams to shift defensively, he uses his closer in a very limited, sometimes non-sensical role, and I have huge concerns about his ability to handle player injuries. Those are just a few things, though. Sure, maybe those decisions cost the Twins 3, 4, 5 games a year. Maybe more. Maybe less. Tough to tell. But the point is, a manager's role in the playing of the game itself is limited.
 
I keep going back to Terry Ryan. Gardy's job was not to set the roster; it was to play the players on the roster. A "field manager." Take a look at the motley crew of pitchers, games started, and ERAs that I listed above (note: for guys that both started and relieved, I just used their combined ERA -- but you get the picture; note also, I didn't include guys like Trevor May or Ricky Nolasco, who were bad this season but should improve -- there's a difference between a prospect like May learning the big leagues, or a veteran like Nolasco having a career-awful year, and Cole De Vries.). For 2012, that list accounts for 76/162 starts; for 2013 it was 83 starts; and for 2014 it was 63 starts. Those are huge chunks of the season where the Twins were trotting out starting pitchers (sometimes relievers masked as starters) who gave the team little chance to win. That failure is not on Ron Gardenhire. There's no way that Gardy said, after a bunch of awful starts, "Terry, I just know Jason Marquis is gonna turn the corner. Give him more time." Or, "Pedro Hernandez -- I need that guy starting right now!" Are you kidding?!?! I'm sure Gardy lost tons of sleep over his team's pathetic starting pitching, which, incidentally, continually wore down what may have been decent bullpens. Yes, Gardy defends his players publicly, but what manager wouldn't want great starting pitching? What manager wouldn't beg his general manager for help as his team gets shelled every night?
 
I know what you're thinking: I've completely forgotten the part of the narrative where Bill Smith ruined the organization and Terry Ryan is rebuilding it, and where Ryan is one of the best baseball minds out there. But if there's one thing Ryan can be faulted for, it's failing to draft/develop/acquire better-than-average starting pitching -- and this goes back quite some time, long before Bill Smith. A team can either draft, trade for (other otherwise acquire through the Rule 5 draft, for instance), or sign players as free agents. The Twins have always needed better starting pitching. For the love of God, Brian Duensing started playoff games! Ryan, by and large, has failed to get his manager good pitching. The team, understandably, is reluctant to part with prospects, the best prospects are just now beginning to get to the majors (note that the Twins did not draft May or Alex Meyer), and it wasn't until last off-season that Ryan went out on the free agent market to spend real money. Too little. Too late. For Gardy, at least.
 
Look again at that list. 76 starts. 83 starts. 63 starts. Just for fun, imagine that, in just 20 of those starts each year, the Twins had a starting pitcher who could go 6 innings and give you a 3.5 or 4.0 ERA. I'm not even talking about a superstar. Just a better-than-average pitcher. Might the Twins win half those games? Perhaps. Imagine what another 10 wins would have made you think about the Twins' 2014 season. 80 wins and 82 losses sounds a hell of a lot better than 70-92.
 
In the end, Gardy had to go. He was past his prime, the Twins have a bunch of young guys coming up, and sometimes change for the sake of change is reason enough. But I can't get over the feeling that Ryan somehow is coming off unscathed in this mess, as if he has lifetime tenure, when in reality the Twins' record is as much a reflection on him as it is on Gardy.

Last season, I'm sure you remember the Twins' ill-fated attempt to charge a select group of fans to watch the Twins take batting practice at home games. To be fair, fans currently don't get to watch the Twins take BP at Target Field, and several teams have a similar program in place, so this idea was not at all unfounded. But the reaction was crazy. People railed against the team such that, only a few hours after the team released the announcement, it was retracted. I didn't blog about this at the time, because it was covered everywhere. But to me, this was an example of really poor timing -- not a poor idea. The team was bad and fielding rather pathetic lineups. The idea that fans would pay extra to watch players like Wilkin Ramirez or Pedro Florimon take BP -- players that would be in AAA on a good team -- suggested to me that the organization was out of touch with a large portion of its fan base.
 
Yesterday, as I'm sure you've heard by now, the Twins released a "brand" survey to some fans, which included the question "[c]urrently, which one brand is the most similar to the Twins brand?" The answer choices were all automobiles: Taurus; Volvo; Mustang; Ford pick-up; Cadillac Escape; BMW; Mercedes; Mini Van; Dodge Viper; Prius Hybrid. Accompanying the car names were descriptors such as "fast and sporty," "quality and luxury," and "efficient and forward-thinking." Of course, none of these automobiles, and none of these descriptors, match the Twins. Maybe mini van comes the closest, but perhaps a more accurate descriptor for the current Twins brand -- "cruising" toward its 4th consecutive 90-loss season -- would be "my '97 Honda Civic after the CD player was stolen and there was a big hole so you could see almost into the engine."
 
Not surprisingly, this question became a laughingstock. How bad did it get? Keith Olbermann named the Twins' marketing department as his nightly "World's Worst." On national television.
 
Fast-forward nearly 24 hours later, and the Twins have yet to say anything publicly about this. Nothing on Twitter from the team, President Dave St. Peter or Mike Kennedy (Twins PR). Do they need to apologize? Of course not. It was a stupid little marketing brand question that went viral, and that seems to happen frequently these days as businesses realize the importance of social/digital marketing and venture into previously uncharted territory. But it did suggest that, perhaps, the organization hasn't learned much in the past year. If the front office really thinks that the Twins are anything like a BMW, or are "urban and street-wise" (how can that even translate into athletics???), or any of those other vehicles or descriptors, the front office is still very much out of touch with what is apparent to everyone else.
 
Social media and digital marketing failures happen all the time. And people get past them. But this is still an embarrassment for the Twins who, in my opinion, are usually pretty good with their ads and marketing stuff. To do nothing for 24 hours, especially after you've been taken down on national television, is just stupid. So what do I suggest? Think like a minor league team would. Do something outside the box. Just. Do. Something. I'm not just going to sit here and make fun of the team without suggesting alternatives. So here are 2 awful ideas.
 
1) Really own this failure and give away a mini van at the last home game of the season. Or donate one to one of the many deserving MN nonprofits. It can be from Mauer Chevrolet. 2) Have a Keith Olbermann day at the ballpark. Invite him to throw out the first pitch. Or ban him from the ballpark for life. Whatever. Free or discounted tickets to people with the legal name "Keith" or "Olbermann." If your birth name is "Keith Olbermann," you get Champions Club seats.
 
Now, I'm an attorney, and I rarely get involved on the creative side at my job. You can see why. But at least these ideas are something. It's better than silence. At the very least, Dave St. Peter should get on twitter (where he is very accessible and patient with fans), and say something funny to Olbermann. Maybe take him down a peg?? Again -- something. Like the batting practice thing, this will go away in a few days. But the team: a) demonstrated once again that it's out of touch with reality; and missed an opportunity to turn an embarrassing negative into something positive, or at least a little funny.

My article last week suggesting that the Twins trade Glen Perkins (for the right offer) is one of the most read things I've written. Although there were only a handful of comments at Twins Fan From Afar, over here at TwinsDaily there are nearly 200 comments (most of them well thought out). MLBTradeRumors also linked to the article, and it ran in the Star Tribune. In other words, more than the usual 5 found this article.
 
I don't have anything to compare with for this week, so I'm going to beat the Glen Perkins horse until it's dead. Here are 7 more working titles about Perkins, all in various stages of completion. If you feel so inclined, submit your own titles and I will also consider writing about them.
 
1) "Demote Glen Perkins."
 
2) "Deport Glen Perkins."
 
3) "How Glen Perkins is Singlehandedly Keeping Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Trevor May and Alex Meyer in the Minors."
 
4) "Where was Glen Perkins when Dennis Martinez Hit Kirby Puckett with that Fastball in 1995? Oh That's Interesting No One Can Seem to Account for His Whereabouts."
 
5) "How Glen Perkins Almost Cost the Twins the '91 World Series: Part 1 of 47."
 
6) "Hey, Glen: Where's Your Birth Certificate? Are you Really Even `One of Us?'"
 
7) "Source: `The Neckbeard is Artificial.'"