DannySD

Even though I'm not a Minnesotan, nor do I live in this beautiful state, I've been observing you guys for years. I see a lot of pessimism when it comes to sports. And who can blame you? Few fans in America love their teams as much as you do and, at the same time, have endured such traumatic playoff moments with the Vikings and Wild or such long playoff draughts with the Twins and Timberwolves. You have the right to be – in the words of our Twins Daily own Parker Hageman – dead inside when it comes to sports. Well, maybe it's time to believe again.
I don't live in the US and I haven't set foot there since May 2013. I'm from a country where most people literally have no clue of what baseball is. I met the game of baseball in 2008, at age 16. So, it's nearly impossible for me to have access to any publication (or clothing items, memorabilia, sports gear...) about the sport. But, miraculously, one of my students gave me a very special gift some weeks ago.
Having taken an exchange programme to the USA in 2015, he was hosted by a Kansas City family during his time there. He knows nothing about baseball himself, but his family did and they gave him a Sports Illustrated 2015 World Series Commemorative Issue. He kept that, only to, almost four years later, give that as a present to his all-time favorite teacher. I was thrilled. I almost didn't even care about the fact that the Royals are a Twins division rival. Afterall, it was the first baseball publication I ever laid hands on.
The magazine sat on my desk at home for some days. In the meantime, the Twins flourished as the team with the best record in baseball. I would be lying if I said I saw that coming, but I can't say I'm shocked by that either. But a lot of people are, indeed, shocked. I lost count of how many people on social media are doubting the Twins. “Enjoy 'em while you can, 'cause they won't last”. And that's not even from people outside of Minnesota only. Like I explained on the first paragraph, many Minnesotans don't believe their Twins are for real. That made me a little mad. And then, the magazine spoke to me.
In the midst of so much pessimism and disbelief coming from every which way, I started browsing through that $12.99 SI issue from November of 2015 and I thought to myself: why can't the Twins be this year's version of the 2015 Royals? And believe me or not, I found a lot of similarities between the two teams. I'm not saying here that Minnesota will win the World Series. All I'm saying is that it's OK to believe in it – like I do right now.
Even though we've had our hearts broken by the Brett Favre interception, the Gary Anderson and Blair Walsh missed field goals, the Jimmy Butler fiasco, the Joe Nathan blown save in the '09 ALDS and, well, the whole Wild playoff history, you might not be a fool to let your guard down for this Twins team. If you don't believe me, let us go through some of the things these two great ball clubs have in common.
 
A couple of underdogs
When experts started predicting what would happen that season, almost none of them believed the 2015 Royals would even make the playoffs. Which, in retrospect, is kind of odd, considering they had just been to the World Series less than six months earlier. In his opening piece, Jay Jaffe wrote about how the Royals were picked by specialists to make it to the postseason in only 13 of 149 predictions.
Maybe this year’s Twins are not as much discredited as the Royals were then. Per that year’s PECOTA, Kansas City was expected to have a 72-90 record. Instead, they had a 95-67 one. This year’s PECOTA, at first, predicted an 81-81 record for the Twins, but a number of specialists considered them when predicting which team would win the AL Central.
A month and a half into the season, with over 25% of games played, Minnesota has the second best in baseball, after holding the best one overall for over a week. The Twins are on pace to win almost 105 games. I don’t actually believe they will reach triple digits in wins, but at this point it’s plausible to believe that they will surpass the 90-win mark. Curiously enough, after 43 games, the 2015 Royals and the current Twins owned an identical record of 28-15.
Another aspect that those teams have in common is the small Opening Day payroll. On that same Jaffe opening piece, he wrote that the Royals were the first team since the 2003 Marlins to win a World Series, even though they were at the bottom half of all MLB payrolls (17th, at $112.9 million). Per Spotrac, the Twins had the 18th payroll in the league on Opening Day, at $122.1 million, almost $12 million below league average.
Even their track record leading up to their World Series success is somewhat similar to the Twins. Between 2004 and 2012, Kansas City had nine losing records, never winning more than 75 games and with an average of 66 wins per season on that span. Then, they won 86 and 89 games in the two seasons before their championship year. In the six seasons that follow their last division title, the Twins won an average of 67 games each season, including a 59-103 record in 2016, the worst one in club history. They went on to win 85 and make the playoffs for the first time in seven years in 2017 and came close to an eighty win season again last year, finishing with 78.
I don’t believe in coincidences nor am I saying that all of these will have any effect on the outcome of this season. They won’t. But it’s fun to look at those facts, especially when basically no one believes smaller market teams can actually win a title. Let’s not buy into the notion that a team can only win a ring with a $200 million payroll.
A steamroller offense
Tom Verducci wrote, on that same SI issue, a piece entitled ‘Postmodern Swing’, which broke down the main strengths of that Royal offense. According to him, one of the most important features of that offense was its aggressiveness. The Royals saw the fewest pitches per plate appearance that year, with 3.71. Their philosophy was to chase after hittable pitches early and not give up easy strikes. Still, they were the team that struck out the least in MLB that year, with a 15.9% strikeout rate. They also average an MLB 7th best 4.4 runs per game. Which team has done something similar this year?
Some weeks ago, Aaron Gleeman wrote this great piece explaining how the Twins have added power and, at the same time, have been striking out much less. They have been the team that struck out the third least in MLB, currently with a 19.5% strikeout rate. In comparison with the ‘15 Royals, Minnesota is also scoring more, with a 5.4 runs per game average, and has much more power, as they lead the MLB with .236 ISO, against .144 of those Royals. In terms of pitches per plate appearance, Minnesota also doesn’t see a lot of pitches, with an average of 3.78.
Both these Twins and those Royals have something else in common. They both swing a lot and get good contact. Here is how they rank:
2015 Royals
Contact% - 81.9% (1st in MLB)
O-Contact% - 68.8% (2nd)
Swing% - 47.6% (9th)
O-Swing% - 32.5% (5th)
 
2019 Twins
Contact% - 77.5% (6th in MLB)
O-Contact% - 63.2% (7th)
Swing% - 48.1% (4th)
O-Swing% - 32.3% (6th)
And one last nice coincidence that these two offenses have. In 2015, the Royals had Alcides Escobar as their leadoff man, even though he had a low OBP, contradicting modern tendencies. Escobar finished the season with a .293 OBP. He also saw very few pitches, with an average of 3.49 per plate appearance and swung at 51.3% of pitches and managed to make contact in 83.8% of them. Looking at Minnesota’s current leadoff man, Max Kepler, we also have an aggressive hitter (51.5 % Swing% and 82.2% Contact%), who sees fez pitches (3.56 per PA) and has a not so high base occupation (.308). According to Verducci’s piece, Escobar ‘set the tone’ for the rest of the Royal lineup, making opposing pitchers aware of the fact that they wouldn’t get any easy strikes.
Quality pitching
When we talk about the Royals pitching from that World Series campaign, the first thing that comes to our minds is their extraordinary bullpen. Then, one might think that here would lie the biggest difference between the two teams. Yes, that Wade Davis led group of relievers was no match for this current Minnesota ‘pen, but when comparing the two pitching staffs overall, we can find more identical features.
Believe it or not, but the two pitching staffs have virtually the same numbers, with an inversion. Kansas City had a lights-out bullpen and a below average rotation, resulting in the 10th best ERA in the MLB. The Twins on the other hand, don’t have a stellar rotation nor bullpen, but both those groups are among the ten best in baseball.
2015 Royals
Overall: 3.74 ERA (10th), 4.04 FIP (15th)
Starters: 4.34 ERA (22nd), 4.32 FIP (21st)
Relievers: 2.72 ERA (2nd), 3.56 FIP (10th)
 
2019 Twins
Overall: 3.88 ERA (9th), 4.13 FIP (13th)
Starters: 3.66 ERA (6th), 4.23 FIP (13th)
Relievers: 4.31 ERA (19th), 3.96 FIP (9th)
Davis was out of this world that season. If there has been a reliever more deserving than him of winning the first Cy Young award in the AL since 1992, I really believe he was the best candidate. Not only did he finish the regular season with a 0.94 ERA in 61 ⅓ innings pitched, but he also neared perfection during the postseason, posting a 0.00 ERA in eight games.
I don’t see anyone within this Twins pitching staff (so far) with the ability to be what Davis was for that Royals team - but there’s no need for it. Up until now, Minnesota’s pitchers have done a decent job. The overall bullpen numbers are a bit tainted because of bad outings from young arms tested out of Rochester and because of slumps from, mainly, Trevor Hildenberger and Adalberto Mejía. But, as of this moment, six of the eight bullpen arms in the 25-man roster have an ERA of 2.76 or lower. Newcomer Austin Adams hasn’t pitched this season yet.
Their rotations can’t be compared. At least until this moment, Twins starters have done an outstanding job. Maybe we’ve set the bar too low after years of bad rotations, but things have looked extremely nice. Which, with this whole exercise of comparing these two teams can be very exciting. The Royals were world champions even though the four starters they’ve used in the postseason combined for a 4.96 ERA in 16 starts.
Deadline additions: a blueprint for the Twins
To help end the 30-year World Series drought, the Royals traded for two key-pieces near the trade deadline. They traded Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed for Reds’ superstar starter Johnny Cueto and sent Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea to Oakland in exchange for veteran super utility player Ben Zobrist. Those proved to be vital additions to their goals.
Zobrist had a solid last portion of the regular season with the Royals, slashing .284/.364/.453 (.816). During the postseason, he performed even better, hitting .303/.365/.515 (.880) and with five multi-hit games. But he also provided a much needed boost that might have made a big difference.
Before his arrival, Royals second basemen slashed .231/.251/.319 (.570). In 35 games starting at that position in the remainder of the regular season, Zobrist hit .275/.348/.457 (.805). He also played 18 games as a LF, a position in which Kansas City had a good production, with .273/.383/.467 (.850). But Zobrist managed to top even that, hitting .299/.392/.463 (.855).
 
Cueto on the other hand wasn’t as dominant as Zobrist, but he was still essential to the Kansas City success. He had a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts for the Royals during the regular season and a 5.40 ERA in the postseason, but those numbers alone can be very misleading. In four playoff starts, he had a mediocre outing (6.0 innings, 4 ER) in game 2 of the ALDS, a terrible one (2.0 IP, 8 ER) in game 3 of the ALCS, but two amazingly good ones to compensate. He pitched a on run complete game in the World Series, helping the Royals to open a 2-0 lead in the series.
So what’s the lesson the Twins can learn out of the Royals shopping in the 2015 trade deadline? It’s hard to imagine, at least based on this first quarter of the season, that Minnesota is going after big names to help their offense. I mean, all help is welcomed, but if they had to invest top prospects in one area, I don’t believe the offense would be their priority.
But when we look at their pitching staff, you can see a lot of room for improvement. As well as the rotation has pitched so far, the Twins would benefit a lot from a better arm to fill the gap Michael Pineda has been leaving until this moment. He currently has a 5.85 ERA, the worst among starters. The bullpen also could use some help - even more than the rotation. Bottomline is, it doesn’t matter how well the arms might be doing, with their clear exceptions, of course, shopping for one or two dominant arms could make a difference between a World Series victory and a quick visit to the postseason.
And who could be the best candidates? Well, if you’re talking about bringing in a starter and a reliever, one can only consider signing the two biggest unsigned names in the last offseason: former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and superstar closer Craig Kimbrel. But this would also represent a great risk, given the fact we don’t know in what shape they would show up. Also, there’s very little, if any, indications that Minnesota would be willing to pay them. I mean, if there’s any interest, why didn’t they pull the trigger yet?
Since that’s the most unlikely option, we should look at what possible options they could go after via trade. For rotation help, I believe the best choices that they would have would be Madison Bumgarner or Stephen Strasburg, MadBum being my favorite. For the bullpen, my favorite candidate would be old friend Liam Hendriks. But there are many more options around and I’m sure the Twins front office has a keen eye for that job.
In conclusion, smaller market teams will always raise more suspiscions than inspire confidence among non-fans. They will always doubt those teams. But the 2015 Royals are the closest example we have that this dream is doable. And, as shown during this article, they have a long list of common features with this year’s Twins. So, it’s OK to believe.

Miguel Sanó is nearing his return to full time activity. After going through so much since being named an All Star, I don’t think there’s anything that would make him happier right now. But, looking back at all the events in the past eighteen months of his career, Twins fans should ask themselves a list of questions about his return to the team. Trying to anticipate every possible scenario could be a good way for Twins fans not to overreact if he doesn’t play very well at first and to have an opinion on how to assemble an even stronger lineup if he does.
 
How is Sanó going to return?
Nobody can know for sure which Sanó the Twins will get when he returns. In 2017, everybody believed he had had his breakout season and was bound to be the stud of the lineup. In early August of that year, though, shortly after an All Star Game appearance, he was hit in the shin and was sidelined for the better part of the remainder of the season. He got back in late September, but Paul Molitor chose not to put him on the Wild Card roster.
 
He had surgery in November of that year to insert a permanent titanium rod into the shinbone and was expected to be ready to play by Spring Training. Well, he barely was. Sanó could only start his spring participation in the last day of February. Plus, he reported to camp a bit out of shape, which caused some concern among some fans. In spite of all that, he was cleared to open the season with the team.
 
Then, maybe because of his conditioning or perhaps because he wasn’t confident enough to be back at that point because of his procedure, he developed a new injury during the first full month of regular season. In early May he was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a left hamstring strain. At that point, it was clear that he was not even a little bit close to the All Star he had been months earlier. Even though he posted a not terrible .739 OPS and hit five home runs, he was batting only .212 and struck out 36 times in 90 PA, which represented a 40% K%, a league worst among all major league hitters with that many PA.
 
He got back from the DL and things only got worse. His first game out of the DL was on May 25th and he went on to play another 17 games. In that span, he had 73 PA, batted .191 and struck out even more than before, with 41.1% of K%. Before the middle of June he was optioned to Single-A Fort Myers, where he spent the rest of June and almost the entire month of July. He returned to MLB in late July for a third stint, but it was basically all of the same. His K% dropped to 36% during the 34 remaining games of his season and he batted only .195, with six home runs.
 
After by far his worst season as a major leaguer, Sanó was poised to turn things around. He started his path to redemption by playing for his hometown club Estrellas Orientales to claim its first national title of the Dominican Winter League since 1968. He made some Instagram posts in which he was much thinner than he finished last season and raised a lot of questions. But when he showed up at camp this year all the suspicions were confirmed. It was reported that he had lost roughly 25 pounds, after finishing 2018 at 290 pounds, according to MLB.com.
 
 
But apparently he couldn’t just catch a break. During the celebrations of his hometown team title, Sanó suffered a cut on his foot and had a heel laceration. At first, he was expected to miss only the first week of Spring Training, but he ended up missing the whole thing. Since the healing of the wound didn’t go according to plan, he needed to undergo a procedure that would most likely have him be sidelined until May.
 
Which brings us to today and our first question: how will Sanó come back from all this? Will the Twins have the same 2018 version of him? After all, he did miss out on the entire Spring Training and hasn’t seen actual everyday activity for months. Some might be scared that he will have this year the same kind of year that Ervin Santana had last year. It would be terrible for us fans to witness that, but even worse for Sanó himself.
 
On the other hand, what if none of those setbacks were able to break his spirits? What if he was hungry enough to prove himself that he dedicated himself twice as much? What if, instead of having an Ervin Santana’s 2018-like year he will destroy all the skepticism, like his teammate Byron Buxton is doing right now? That could turn the Twins lineup into an even scarier threat.
 
 
If he struggles, what should be done?
Let us work with all the scenarios now. Say he struggles when he comes back. What then? Do you trade him? Do you give him another chance? Each fan would have their own opinion here, so it would be difficult to predict a definite outcome. A number of fans are looking at this year as Sanó’s last chance in Minnesota and if he comes back in May and doesn’t play at the same level that the Twins hitters are playing right now, I don’t see a lot of those fans wanting him around.
 
In his defence, you could say that Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins current everyday 3B, is not hitting nearly as well as most of the lineup. But he is providing stellar defense. It would be a very tough decision. So, do you try to work out a trade involving him? I guess many people would try that, but it’s hard to imagine a lot of teams interested in Sanó if he doesn’t play well enough during the two months before the trade deadline.
 
In that case, I believe that the preferred way to go for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be to keep him within the organization, especially because he has got one minor league option remaining. There’s no point in letting him go in exchange for nothing. I think it would be wise to take into consideration the fact that a lot that has happened to him earlier this year wasn’t really in his control.
 
 
If he plays well, what should be done?
Moving to a more optimistic scenario now. Let’s imagine he has a slow start, but then catches up with the slugfest Twins hitters have been having lately. Do you give him the everyday job? Do you have him share PA’s with Gonzalez and Willians Astudillo at third, or Nelson Cruz at DH?
 
All those questions are impossible to answer, but let’s imagine La Tortuga’s AVG never drops. Let’s imagine Cruz keeps up the incredible season he’s having. Who do you have? If you make him the everyday 3B, what do you do with the loss on defense, since you won’t have Gonzalez there that much? I’m sure that if Cruz doesn’t slow down, it will be a rarity to see him have more than one or two days off every week.
 
In the Astudillo end, things aren’t any easier. If Mitch Garver keeps feasting on opposing pitchers the way he is right now (even better than Astudillo, as of late), you won’t have the option to give him some PA at third, because now you have Sanó’s old self and Gonzalez’ defense. Rocco Baldelli and his staff would have to come up with a way in which they would provide all those hitters with regular PA, in order not to affect their productivity. That would be a pickle.
 
 
If he does play well, who’s the odd man out?
I believe that if the Twins had anything close to a 2017-like Sanó, no one would think twice about who would be the one to be dropped: Ehire Adrianza. Even nowadays, seeing very little playing time, it’s hard to imagine he will stick around long. But that’s not the hard question here. If you have a good, healthy Sanó and a four-man bench, who’s the odd man out if the club finds itself in need of a thirteenth arm during the season?
 
A 13-man pitching staff has already become the normality around the league. Do the Twins dare to go with twelve, if all the bats are working? That, to me, is the hardest question so far. And it becomes even harder to think of an answer, if you imagine the Martín Pérez experience not paning out the way the front office planned. If he struggles as a starter, you risk overloading the pitching staff too much if they are carrying twelve arms nowadays. Assuming all of them are performing as well as they are right now in this hypothetical future, who do you let go of among Astudillo, Garver, Gonzalez and Jake Cave, the Twins only backup outfielder?
 
Have your way on the comment section and give your opinion. What would you do?

I will be walking on eggshells here, but I think this issue is bound to be discussed each day more. It looks inevitable. I’m not campaigning for the spread of "The Opener" strategy, as if it is a groundbreaking improvement for the game. Honestly, all I can say is that I think there’s no harm in testing it. But that’s not the point of this article. For the sake of a further discussion on whether MLB teams should embrace The Opener or not, I urge you to read this Russell Carleton’s piece on Baseball Prospectus.
 
Assuming that The Opener strategy is a tendency that can’t be avoided at this moment in the MLB, the real point of this text is to discuss how it could be deployed on this Twins team. I figure not many fans would oppose to making that adjustment a couple of times a week, if that would represent… well, a couple of more wins a week. Right? In other words, if The Opener can make a team go from a 80-85-win team to a 86-90-win team, one would have to be stubborn to still want that strategy to be banished from the game.
 
With that in mind, I ask you this first question: which Twins’ starting pitchers would benefit the most from having an Opener pitching before them in some games? Well, I was looking into some numbers and I was able to come to a conclusion of my own, but I invite you all to join in the discussion and share your opinions about this. Here are my candidates.
 
Jake Odorizzi had a fantastic debut on the Opening Week, going six innings and giving up only one earned run, while also striking out eleven Cleveland batters. But then, last Friday’s outing against the Phillies couldn’t have had a worse turn out for him. He couldn’t pitch past the first inning, retiring only two batters and giving up four earned runs, three of which came from walks given up by him. I started searching a little bit in his career and I found some evidence that, in my opinion, qualify him for having an Opener pitching before him.
 
Odorizzi’s ERA per inning since 4/1/2018
1st: 4.13
2nd: 3.69
3rd: 2.61
4th: 5.90
5th: 5.26
6th: 9.49
 
As you can notice, his first inning numbers in roughly the last calendar year are considerably worse than the two following innings. In other words, it’s like he has been pitching much better to, say, opponents batting from #4 and lower. It’s acceptable to assume he would have a much better performance if he started the game pitching to the middle part of the lineup.
 
Another compelling argument that shows Odorizzi could benefit a great deal from the Opener is how much worse his numbers are when pitching for the third time through the order. Here’s how he’s pitch in the same span as above:
 
First Time Through the Order: 3.18 ERA
Second Time Through the Order: 3.53 ERA
Third Time Through the Order: 11.57 ERA
 
In the last twelve months, Odorizzi has pitched almost four times worse in the third time he faced another team’s lineup than he has in the first time. So, he’s a perfect fit for The Opener. He hasn’t pitched well in the last year and he has run out of gas by the third time he has faced lineups. If you use an Opener with him, he would probably start pitching to the fourth or fifth batter in the opponent’s lineup. Plus, this could also improve his Third Time Through the Order numbers. In my opinion, there’s no harm in testing this.
 
Another candidate that could really benefit from The Opener would be Martín Pérez. Maybe even more than Odorizzi. Throughout the offseason, we’ve tried to reason his signing and to think of many scenarios in which he could be a good fit for the Twins. But as of now, in his two relief appearances, he struggled, posting career high 24.3 P/IP and 9.25 BB/9, as well as second worst career S% (61%) and H/9 (11.37).
 
As of next Friday (April 12th), the Twins will play 13 consecutive games, which would mean Pérez would be shifted to the rotation. He is deserving of an actual shot in the rotation, but if he struggles again, what should be the club’s course of action? It’s highly unlikely that he would be bought out of his contract, once he is guaranteed to receive his $ 4.25 million of salary. So, how could the Twins avoid having such weak point in their rotation? Keep him in the bullpen and shift Adalberto Mejía instead? Maybe. But you could also try The Opener. Here’s how Pérez has performed in the last calendar year.
 
Pérez’ ERA per inning since 4/1/2018
1st: 6.60
2nd: 7.98
3rd: 4.80
4th: 5.79
5th: 7.11
6th: 9.35
 
ERA per time through the order
FTTO: 4.57
STTO: 4.99
TTTO: 12.46
 
Just like Odorizzi, his first innings performance was quite bad and his TTTO numbers are more than two times worse than the first one. Using an Opener for one or two innings and having Pérez start pitching to the middle or bottom part of the lineup, could improve his numbers.
 
Just as a comparison, here’s how José Berríos and Kyle Gibson, the two best starting pitchers of the team last year, have performed in each time through the order, in the last calendar year.
 
Berríos ERA
FTTO: 2.81
STTO: 4.15
TTTO: 4.31
 
Gibson ERA
FTTO: 2.31
STTO: 4.86
TTTO: 4.96
 
The variation is not nearly as big as Odorizzi and Pérez. So, it would be a very valid move to try and use The Opener with them and see how it works. What do you have to lose?
 
The best Opener options
 
The Opener strategy is brand new, so it’s hard to trace the profile of the pitcher that would be best qualified for the job. After analyzing Twins pitchers’ performances in the first inning, I found this:
 
Adalberto Mejía
1st inning: 2.88 ERA (25 IP)
 
Tyler Duffey
1st inning: 3.89 ERA (37 IP)
 
Mejía, in my opinion, should be a regular part of the rotation. I find him very talented. But, for some reason, the coaching staff decided to have him come out of the bullpen. So, with those first inning numbers, he could be a great fit to open games pitched by Odorizzi or Pérez. I really hope the goes back to being a fulltime starter as soon as possible. But, until then, I think using him as the Opener would be the best way to go.
 
Duffey has also posted good numbers in first innings in his career. If you combine his second inning numbers, his ERA drops to 3.63. As of the third inning, his ERA increases to 5.94, which is probably one of the reasons why he has been shifted to the bullpen last year. But if he manages to start games well enough, he could be a great Opener option.
 
Both could be used on that role or maybe just one. Bottom line is, the Twins’ rotation have that need (on Odorizzi and Pérez days) and the tools (Mejía and/or Duffey) to fix it. I say give it a shot.

The offseason has been slow thus far for the Twins. The only notable additions have been Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and Ronald Torreyes. There have been some rumblings about Nelson Cruz heading to Minnesota in 2019, but thus far, no notable additions have been made. If the season started today, Minnesota's lineup would look something like this:
 
C: Jason Castro
1B: C.J. Cron
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: Jorge Polanco
3B: Miguel Sanó
LF: Eddie Rosario
CF: Byron Buxton
RF: Max Kepler
DH: Tyler Austin
 
Looking up and down that lineup, there are reasons for optimism. There is also plenty of room for concern. There are no sure bets in that lineup. The Twins are hoping for a lot of breakthroughs, and they will need to happen in order for the Twins offense to be competitive in 2019.
 
Jason Castro is not an offensive catcher, but catcher has become a starved offensive position in Major League Baseball. He has a career wRC+ of 92, very similar to his 2017 mark of 93. Castro only played in 19 games last year, so a return to health would be huge for the Twins. That being said, it's far from a guarantee that he will be healthy and productive. Castro could be the first of many coin flips in the Twins lineup next season.
 
C.J. Cron is a solid player who jacked 30 homers for the Rays in 2018 while posting a wRC+ of 122. However, his OBP was pretty low at .323 and his career wRC+ is only 111. It's possible that playing in the AL East boosted his power numbers. Cron is a decent player, but it would be hard to count on him being more than just decent.
 
Jonathan Schoop belted 32 for Baltimore in 2017, but the total dipped to just 21 bombs in 131 games in 2018. The Twins are taking a chance on Schoop, hoping he regains his 2017 form. If this is starting to sound familiar, I promise it's not going to get any better. The Twins are flipping a coin with Schoop, hoping he bounces back and fills the void left by Brian Dozier at Second Base.
 
Jorge Polanco had an underrated half-season in 2018. He put up 1.3 WAR despite missing the first 80 games due to suspension. I believe Polanco may be destined for Second Base in the future, and I don't imagine him being a star offensive player, but for now, he will be close to average at shortstop defensively while putting up a decent OBP (such as the .345 he posted in 2018).
 
Miguel Sanó might be the most frustrating player the Twins have had in recent years. Not just because of his underperformance in 2018, but also due to the continuing questions about his character and drive. It is likely that his poor fitness affected his performance last year. It is difficult to be optimistic about his future with the information we have now.
 
Eddie Rosario was an elite player in the second half of 2017 through the first half of 2018. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff after that (wRC+ of just 64 in the second half, compared to 137 in the first half, and 127 in the second half of 2017). Hopefully, his dip was due to injuries and he will be ready to go. However, it is not out of the question that he crashed back to earth after about a year of elite production.
 
Byron Buxton is much like Miguel Sanó from the standpoint that they have been counting on him since 2012 to resurrect the franchise. I am not comparing Buxton's character and work-ethic to Sanó's, but I am comparing their importance to the franchise. Buxton has had a calamity of injuries and has struggled to gain any consistency on offense. His defense is never in question, but the career wRC+ of 76 and the piling injuries is legitimate cause for concern now that he is almost four years into his Major League career.
 
Max Kepler has the organization, and fan base, in purgatory almost as much as any other player. We keep waiting. And Waiting. And Waiting. But the breakout hasn't happened. He has a hot streak, like he did to start 2018. Then he sleepwalks. Then he has a miserable month. Then he heats up. Then he sleepwalks again. Kepler isn't going to put up a 147 wRC+ every month (April 2018), but he needs to avoid the 28 wRC+ month (June 2018). Sooner or later, some consistency is necessary.
 
Tyler Austin may be the odd man out if the Twins do land Nelson Cruz, who would be huge for this lineup. It's possible the Twins will find somebody else for 1B/DH anyhow. That being said, if the season started today, it is likely that Austin would get the bulk of the workload at DH. Austin has talent, but he is probably a platoon player at best.
 
I'm not trying to be too much of a cynic, but it is hard to look at the lineup and be too optimistic about everything going right. A lot has to go in the Twins favor for this offense, as it is today, to be competitive in 2019. Falvine has their work cut out for them, time to spend a few bucks (or maybe a few more).

Although the Postseason continues to press onwards with the League Championship Series round, the Minnesota Twins are firmly entrenched in their offseason. The front office has begun interviews of possible managerial candidates, and the free agent market looms right around the corner. Recently I looked at a handful of positions the Twins need to fulfill for the 2019 season, and now it’s time to put some names to those groups.
 
Given the free agent class, more loaded at the top than displaying real significant depth, there’s opportunity for Minnesota to get better through the trade market as well. Having financial flexibility plays on both the open market, as well as being able to absorb a contract in trade. On top of dollars, the Twins organization boasts one of the best farm systems in baseball, and while Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff are untouchable, that’s probably where the designation ends.
 
Bullpen
 
A season ago, the Twins brought Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke in on one-year deals. Addison Reed was given a two-year contract and responded with the worst year of his career. Although it’s a toss up giving lengthy deals to relievers, there’s two names that have age and ability on their side. Both Kelvin Herrera and Jeurys Familia have yet to reach 30 and are among the premiere relief options in the game. Closing experience resides in both, and Herrera obviously has divisional familiarity through his time with Kansas City.
 
Minnesota isn’t going to acquire either of those guys on the cheap, and a two-year deal around $20 million for each seems logical. That’s a pretty big chunk to spend on the pen, so a lesser option for just a year could come into play as well. Zach Britton isn’t the impact arm he used to be, and he’s never been a big-time strikeout guy. Given the expected market there, I think that’s a pretty safe pass. Joe Kelly and Adam Ottavino are both guys that would be huge boosts to the pen, and I’d think the one-year route could be doable there. As things stand now, the Twins don’t have a proven closer, so they could make a big play for Craig Kimbrel. He’s elite but will be paid as such also. Kimbrel well beyond a pace to shatter Mariano Rivera’s records, so he’ll need the 9th no matter where he ends up.
 
1st Base
 
In my initial breakdown, it was first base that I saw Minnesota looking to explore when it comes to the infield corners. Joe Mauer looks to be hanging them up, and that would leave a significant hole there. Obviously, the caveat is whether Miguel Sano slides over, but still just 25 and with more of a commitment, third base would be the ideal role from the Twins perspective.
 
From a point of talent acquisition, it’s relative negligible when it comes to what infield corner is being acquired. The market for first basemen is incredibly thin, bearing no starting caliber talents. On the hot corner side, you’ve got the injury plagued Josh Donaldson, or the utility man Eduardo Escobar. Minnesota has bridges to mend with Eduardo, and Donaldson will likely be given a deal that puts an organization in the unenviable position to be burned. If there’s an opportunity for the Twins to make a trade, this could be it.
 
There’s no doubt that the Phillies showed up in 2018, and probably outperformed a certain level of expectations. In signing Carlos Santana last winter though, they positioned youngster Rhys Hoskins well out of position and were worse off for it. They then also acquired Justin Bour, and now have a glut of options at the position. Both Bour and Santana are coming off down seasons and could be nice candidates to have bounce back performances. Santana is owed another $40 million over two years, while Bour is under team control through 2020. Either of those options would look nice in a Twins uniform, and they’d bring some significant thump to the lineup.
 
2nd Base
 
After deciding to hold off on any extension talks with Brian Dozier prior to the 2018 season, hindsight makes the decision look even better. In a contract year, Dozier put up his worst numbers as a pro, and he may need to settle for a one-year deal in hopes of recouping some future value. Minnesota could look to former utility man, and Fogo de Chao connoisseur, Eduardo Escobar here. Again, that’d have to include some mended feelings, and reunions aren’t often seen that quickly through free agency.
 
You’d have to put Logan Forsythe squarely in the running for a return to Minnesota. He played great defense and showed a capable bat down the stretch. There isn’t much youth to be had, and D.J. LeMahieu is the youngster of the class at 30. The falloff from Coors is real for LeMahieu, and he provides little else besides contact offensively. Asdrubal Cabrera could be a nice option, and there’s power in his bat that doesn’t typically show up at the position. I can’t see Minnesota being enticed by a 37-year-old Ian Kinsler, or an expensive Daniel Murphy however.
 
In an ideal world, Manny Machado makes too much sense for the Twins on paper. He’d be able to take over at short, pushing Jorge Polanco to second base. After rating horribly at the position with the Orioles, the more analytically inclined Dodgers had Machado looking like a new man. He’s elite, and at the top of this class however, so even if the Twins wanted to go all in, Manny would need to meet them there.
 
Starting Pitcher
 
Given the internal depth of Minnesota’s rotation, this is a much less pressing need than it has been in previous seasons. Fernando Romero looks ready to assume a regular big-league role, and unless the Twins want to add a top three starter, I’d rather not see him get bumped from that position. Should there be money left over however, slotting another arm in with Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson would only improve what should be a respectable group.
When it comes to hurlers Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin headline the talent. The New York Yankees have already indicated their intentions to pursue Corbin, and his figure is going to get quite high. Keuchel isn’t the Cy Young winner of a few years ago, but he won’t come cheap either. Minnesota could acquire either, but it’d likely come at the detriment of another position group.
Operating on two ends of the spectrum, both J.A. Happ and Gio Gonzalez are names that would be a fit. At 36, Happ isn’t the type you’d go more than a year or two on, but it certainly seems like there’s plenty left in the tank. Gonzalez will be 33 and has proved a timely addition for the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch. Both should be in the mid-level category when it comes to a payday, and there’s little doubt that they’d pitch as one of the Twins three best starters.
 
Looking at more of a dice roll Trevor Cahill could be an option. He was solid this season for the Athletics, and while his track record isn’t great, the cost shouldn’t be significant either. I’d have trouble trusting him among the top half of the rotation, but he’d be a worthy addition to supplement the overall depth. Following along a similar train of thought used with Michael Pineda in 2018, Garrett Richards is a very enticing arm as well. He has a horrible time staying healthy, having not pitched a full season since 2015, but he’s very good when available. He’ll be 31 next year and is still recovering from Tommy John surgery in July. The stuff is hard to shy away from however, and if you can make the dollars work, there’s certainly appeal here.
 
If we’ve learned anything thus far about this front office, it’s that they have done a very solid job when it comes to talent acquisition. Regardless of how it worked out, the names brought in last winter were all good ones. Getting a big-league starter under team control for a flier prospect was also a shrewd move. I’d expect Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to be active on both fronts, and it should only push the envelope for Minnesota’s relevance next season.
 
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There's no denying that the 2018 Minnesota Twins fell short of expectations. This club came into the year having played in the Postseason a season ago, and they were looking to target the Cleveland Indians at the top of the AL Central division. Winning just 78 games, that didn't happen, but there was plenty for this group to hang their hats on.
 
Obviously a season in which we saw Paul Molitor's squad take a step backwards, there's a few key areas needing improvement. Before getting into those narratives however, we need to take a look at which positive launching points could loom large for the offseason and year ahead.
 
Kyle Gibson
 
Mid-way through the 2017 Major League Baseball regular season, it looked as though the former 1st round draft pick would be a non-tender candidate at the end of the year. Then things clicked, and he posted a 3.76 ERA over his final 13 starts. What's only made it look better, is that Gibson has carried the strong performance into 2018.
 
He wrapped up the year trailing only Jose Berrios in terms of fWAR among Twins pitchers, and his 3.62 ERA was easily a career best. The FIP and xFIP numbers suggest there's some room for regression, but it isn't too worrisome. Another key development is that Gibson showed a heightened ability to get batters out on his own. With a career high 8.2 K/9, his strikeout numbers were notable for the first time in his career. Thanks to the emergence of Gibson, and presence of both Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, the Twins rotation is in a good place.
 
Jake Cave
 
In baseball, you are rarely afforded multiple significant opportunities to make an impact. After being pulled from the Yankees glut of outfielders, the Twins afforded Cave an opportunity and he ran with it. As a 25 year-old rookie, he's a bit past the typical prospect shine. That said, he posted a more than enticing .797 OPS and showed plenty of power potential.
 
Right now, he's locked in as nothing lower than the 4th outfielder for the Twins going into 2019. Cave took the run likely tabbed for Zack Granite coming into the season, and he could very well push Robbie Grossman out of the organization as well. If there's an area to focus on when it comes to development, it's easily plate discipline. A 102/18 K/BB ratio leaves plenty of room for a higher level of on-base prowess to rear its head.
 
Taylor Rogers
 
Losing a bullpen piece like Ryan Pressly was going to create opportunity for another arm to step up, and Rogers did in a big way. Leading the Twins in fWAR out of the pen, Taylor posted a career best 2.63 ERA. It was the third straight season in which he's lowered his ERA, and he finished with a career best 9.9 K/9. Although velocity isn't his game, he gets pitches by batters, and doesn't give up free passes.
 
On top of being dominant as a whole, Rogers wasn't simply a LOOGY either. Sure, he nuked lefties to the tune of a .428 OPS, but he only allowed righties to post a .643 OPS against him in the process. Across over 68 innings this season, he only allowed three longballs, and he pitched his way to the back of the Minnesota pen.
 
Eddie Rosario
 
Spanning the group of exciting prospects that rose the Twins ranks together, it's probably a bit surprising that Rosario has emerged the most. That said, we're absolutely at that point in their collective development. After an .836 OPS season in 2017, Rosario solidified his ability by performing at an All-Star level in 2018.
 
From where I sit, I don't think there's much more to the ceiling of the Minnesota left fielder, but the floor shouldn't be significantly lower either. A guy that has a cannon in the outfield, and can hit as a middle-of-the-order threat, he's going to be a guy that makes sense for a long term extension. Rosario can be a star for the Twins, and that came somewhat out of nowhere.
 
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The Minnesota Twins front office is sure making a habit of blundering important decisions here in September. With respect to Byron Buxton, and the late season promotions, there's plenty of head-scratching and hand-wringing to be observed. At this current juncture, it's maybe worth speculating if everyone isn't on the same page?
Over the course of the 2018 major league season, I have found myself as a supporter of the new front office. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had an exceptional offseason, and they positioned this Twins club for success in the current season. As everything has gone up in flames however, their responses have seemed less than satisfactory. Now as real adversity creeps in, we may be seeing some cracks in the armor as well.
 
Obviously the biggest misstep thus far has been the handling of Byron Buxton. This isn't the space to rehash that situation, but I believe I did a good job of explaining the situation here. Looking back at it however, something has stuck out to me, and that's the quote from Thad Levine to Mike Berardino. Minnesota's GM said, “Their recourse has not been laid out to us. They’re certainly entitled to whatever they think is in the best interest of Byron Buxton. From this day forward, I think we recognize a responsibility to make amends and that we’re going to need to invest in the relationship with Byron Buxton. We understand this is a blow to the player, a potential blow to the relationship."
 
In analyzing that quote, it's hard not to wonder why the Twins GM is being so open and candid about the situation as a whole. He talked about service time implications to the media as well, and the suggestion that this team decision could be potentially damaging to a long term relationship speaks volumes. As the only member of the front office to speak on the decision thus far, it's hard not to speculate as to whether Thad is simply acting as the orator here, and there's some dissension in the room.
 
Derek Falvey is 35 years-old and holds the title of Chief Baseball Officer for the Minnesota Twins. His top rank previously was the title of Assistant General Manager for the Cleveland Indians. While he's obviously skilled and qualified for the role in which he's been enlisted, there's also an equally capable and qualified network of support around him. When making such delicate decisions, it's more than fair to wonder whether or not his peers all jump onto the same page.
 
When it comes to head-scratching options, Minnesota embarked on another when they revealed their full list of September call-ups. On top of the egregious missing name in Buxton, neither Nick Anderson or Jake Reed saw their names included among the group either. The Twins are currently 63-74, 14.0 games out of the AL Central, and have nothing left to play for in 2018. With those parameters, September immediately becomes a breeding ground for acclimation and assimilation with talent that could prove useful on the 2019 Opening Day roster. Except the Twins chose to forego that route.
 
It's great that John Curtiss, Chase De Jong and Tyler Duffey found themselves recalled, but so too did Chris Gimenez, Gregorio Petit, and Johnny Field. The latter three players represent veteran retreads that have no real value on a big league bench. Given the current state of the team in Minnesota, Mitch Garver or Jake Cave losing at bats to that duo seems counter productive. On top of that, the Twins left a stocked cupboard and closed the door. There's two spots still open on the 40 man roster, and of the 40 spots available on the active roster in September, only used 34 of them.
 
Anderson, a Minnesota native, turned in a 3.30 ERA, 13.2 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 across 60.0 IP for Triple-A Rochester this season. Jake Reed posted a 1.89 ERA and 9.4 K/9 in 47.2 IP, and owned an even better 1.16 ERA in his last 31.0 IP. After signing multiple relief arms to short term deals this winter, squeezing out all the available talent within the organization seems like a smart blueprint. Given that neither now have an opportunity at the major league level in September, their afforded sample size will be a minimal one during big league camp (assuming they are invited, and still around).
 
Without being behind closed doors, it's impossible to know what Derek Falvey's impact on each decision is. It's also unfair to assume how he is viewed by his peers. What is absolutely certain though, is that there's a danger to always believing you're the smartest person in any given room. If the operating tactics are less collaborative than the amount the term has been used by the head honcho, it's hard to see how lackluster buy in is a positive.
 
Maybe Levine's comments surrounding Buxton are nothing more than they appear on the surface. Maybe no one in the front office saw the idea to waste the opportunity September roster expansion provides as a bad thing. Maybe everyone truly is on the same page. If that's the case though, we might be in even more trouble than it seems.
 
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Means 9 trips through the rotation for each starter, and got me to questioning what would be the best way to appropriate those starts from now - 117 games in - through the rest of the season.
The clear emphasis must be on 2019 and 2020 and what will best serve the club moving forward. That is not to say that you stop pitching Berrios, Odorizzi, or Gibson; those guys need to stay in rotation and continue to demonstrate that they can last an entire season and get their 30+ starts in. Injuries create opportunities but lack of injuries cannot serve to block those same opportunities.
I don't intend to break down every match-up and start, but more to the point, who do I want to see and how many times between now and season's end? Let's start by saying that if we maintain the existing rotation of Odorizzi, Berrios, Santana, Gibson and Stewart, that each would pitch 9 more times and the chart would look like this:
 
Odorizzi (9)
Berrios (9)
Santana (9)
Gibson (9)
Stewart (9)
 
First, I would identify those starters I want to see pitch (whose names do not appear on the above list). I have 4: Adalberto Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Michael Pineda. At this point, Pineda can continue his rehab until he is a little more stretched out, but I would like to see him for the last month, so (in an ideal world) I'll put his number at 5. Romero can continue to pitch in AAA, though I would like him to get a taste of regular rotation work for the next few weeks until he hits his innings limit (he's at 129.1 now), so I would pencil him in to start 4 more times at the mlb level, starting now, and see where that puts him. That might, honestly, dovetail into the Pineda starts as a timetable.
I am most interested in seeing Gonsalves pitch, so would put him down for 7 trips through the rotation between now and season's end.
 
The only way to get to the final numbers below is to switch to a 6-man rotation immediately, to rest the arms of the regulars and give opportunities to the newcomers, so that's what I do. It still does not create sufficient opportunities for all four so something else has to give. The victim in all this is Ervin; until and unless he can get his FB back up to 92 (which he won't), he is injured and on a rehab assignment. There is an argument that you continue to pitch him to see if someone will give you a C prospect for him or save a million dollars with a pass through waivers and a trade, but I don't see that happening either.
 
So here is what it looks like:
Odorizzi (7)
Berrios (7)
Gibson (7)
Gonsalves (7)
Romero (4)
Pineda (5)
Mejia (4)
Stewart (4)
Santana (0)
 
So I have my six-man rotation, with Odorizzi, Berrios, Gibson and Gonsalves getting regular rotation work through the end of the season. I have Romero pitch the next 4 times he is scheduled on regular (or 6-man) rest, followed by Pineda starting the remaining games through the end of the season, and Romero potentially available out of the BP for long relief and to ensure he gets to the innings limit they have set for him. I have Mejia and Stewart rotate through the final spot (Stewart for 4 more now, and then a well-rested Mejia for the last 4 while Stewart finishes out the season in the expanded BP as an additional long man).
 
Not only will this give me a look at the 2019 candidates, but it will inform me whether the above group is sufficient to attack the upcoming season (and yes, we can always use a frontline starter, but the question is whether or not we need another pitcher in the Odorizzi/Lynn/Stewart mode as a veteran who will take regular turns in the rotation but provide fairly middling results, if we're not being too optimistic about them).
 
The lost season is quickly dwindling away, and the vague notion that we'll get a chance to see all of these guys when rosters expand is not accurate. This needs to start now if we are to get any meaningful feedback - and any valuable information - from the wreckage of 2018.

The Minnesota Twins were in the 9th inning of another lackluster offensive performance today against the Detroit Tigers. Despite a wonderful outing from starter Lance Lynn, Minnesota found themselves trailing 3-1 in the final frame. With 2 outs, a runner on, and Miguel Sano on the bench...Jake Cave hit for himself. It was at that moment the Twins had solidified their decision. Miguel Sano needed to go.
 
Immediately following the game, it was announced that the slugging third basemen would be sent to High-A Fort Myers. He wasn't going to Triple-A Rochester, or Double-A Chattanooga. Instead, he was headed all the way down to Florida. Both the Red Wings and Lookouts have roster space for the Twins third basemen, so this move is no accident. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have sent the message to Sano that it's time to get right or get gone.
 
In Fort Myers, Sano will be surrounded by the Twins complex, and monitored and a pretty small microscope. He's going to need to figure out how to ditch the terrible check swinging habit, learn to pick up pitches again, and decide that this shell of a player is not who he wants to be. While the former two issues are big ones, it's the latter that remains the most frustrating for me.
 
Over the course of his career, Sano has relied on natural talent, casting aside an ability to work hard and elevate himself to heights that a player of his caliber should be reaching. As I've stated in this space before, weight has never been the issue for Sano, but instead the message in regards to what he expects from himself. At some point, and the Twins hope this is it, the Dominican native is going to have to push for more. There's a really, really good ballplayer in there, but he'll need to be the one to find it.
 
The move surrounding Sano isn't unexpected, and it's likely the correct one. My estimation would be that recently acquired Taylor Motter will come up to take over as the bench utility player. Motter has done little-to-nothing at Triple-A for the Mariners and Twins this year, but with Robbie Grossman and Bobby Wilson on the pine, Paul Molitor needs an infielder. Motter can play all over the diamond, and should be plenty capable of spelling regulars over the next couple of weeks.
 
If there's a less than ideal wrinkle to the whole situation, it's that Jake Cave was again sent back to Rochester. He's been better than Ryan LaMarre, there's reason to believe his ceiling presents a significantly more appealing skillset, and LaMarre has been relatively awful on his own accord. Minnesota has turned from a contender into a pretender. This team is scuffling at the very least, and keeping LaMarre around for the story he was during spring training is silly. There's no track record to suggest he's anything more than a quad-A type player, and Paul Molitor isn't doing this lackluster lineup any favors by running him out there.
 
When the dust settles, Minnesota will welcome Mauer back with open arms. He isn't going to cure all the warts this team currently has, but it's definitely a positive to have him back in the fold. Negative as it may be right now, Sano deciding to invest in himself long term is the best development Minnesota could get out of this season. Hopefully Cave will get another shot to prove his worth soon. It was a busy day in Twins Territory to say the least.
 
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I flash back to June 9, 2016, and the Minnesota Twins sat with a record of 18-40 and they were fighting the Atlanta Braves for the worst record in all of baseball. Not only that, but the minor league system left a lot to be desired. Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios were called up that season, and after the first few prospects, there was not much that excited Twins fans. So, in other words, their major league club was awful and there was not much help on the way.
 
Enter the 2016 draft. It turned out to be Terry Ryan’s Swan song, as he was fired the following month. With a bad major league product and a lack of good prospects in the minors, Ryan needed to hit on the draft picks in a big way. A bad draft could have set the organization back even further.
 
Minnesota had pick No. 15, and many fans wanted the team to take Boston College pitcher Justin Dunn. Instead, the Twins took high school outfielder Alex Kirilloff. Dunn has done fine, as the 22-year-old currently has a 2.79 ERA in eight starts for the St. Lucie Mets. However, it is clear Ryan made the right decision.
 
After missing the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery, Kirilloff has destroyed the Midwest League so far this year, and has recently made his debut in Baseball America’s top 100 prospect list. In 51 games, the 20-year-old has slashed .332/.385/.598. He is currently in the top three in the Midwest League in hits, average, slugging percentage, OPS, homers, RBI and doubles. Obviously, this is just the first step for him, but he is proving his old general manager right, and he will likely get a taste of the Florida State League later this summer.
 
The string of solid draft picks did not stop with Kirilloff, though, as they added catcher Ben Rortvedt, outfielder Akil Baddoo and second baseman Jose Miranda with their next three picks. They also added pitcher Tyler Wells in the 15th round. Four of the five are top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline, and I imagine Wells will enter that mix soon.
 
After a few rough years at the plate, Rortvedt has found a groove. Through 37 games, he is batting .281 with an OPS of .729. He has a ways to go yet, but he is certainly trending in the right direction, and will be promoted soon with Kirilloff.
 
Baddoo and Miranda both started off the season real slow, but are just now catching fire. After his batting average fell to .212 May 18, Baddoo has hit .333 (11-33) in the eight games since. One of the more impressive things about Baddoo is that his OBP has hovered around .400, even when his batting average has taken a hit. His OBP has not been below .370 since April 22 and has not been lower than .386 since the start of May.
 
Miranda, like Baddoo, struggled for much of the start of the season. On April 23, his batting average slumped below the Mendoza line, and it would stay that way for a month. He had a six-game hitting streak snapped on Saturday, but in those six games of the hitting streak, he had a batting average of .500 (12-24), knocking in nine runs.
 
Those four picks by Ryan especially helped get things moving in the right direction for when Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over at the start of the 2017 season. The difference between then and now, especially in the minor league system, is night and day.
 
The major league club was able to make its first playoff appearance since 2010 last October, and the minor league system has gone from one of the worst in all of baseball to one of the better ones. Falvey and Levine kept the momentum going, as they took a bit of heat for passing on pitcher Hunter Greene to go with shortstop Royce Lewis, who looks like he could be the next big thing with the Twins. The Twins also added Brent Rooker and Blayne Enlow with two of their next three picks. Lewis, Rooker and Enlow are all in Baseball America’s top 10 Twins prospects.
 
There is no doubt that Ryan had warts, and that the Twins needed to make a change. However, as we sit here on June 4, 2018, the organization is in significantly better shape than it was just two years ago. The minor league system is on the verge of becoming one of the best in baseball, the big league ball club is having an underwhelming, but still only 3.5 games in back of Cleveland for the AL Central lead. The turnaround started that summer two seasons ago when the Twins had a great draft to catapult themselves back into MLB relevancy.
 
Twins minor league acquisitions since June 2016 on MLB Pipeline’s top 30
 
1. Royce Lewis, SS
6. Alex Kirilloff, OF
8. Brent Rooker, 1B/OF
9. Blayne Enlow, RHP
11. Akil Baddoo, OF
15. Zack Littell, RHP
19. Andrew Bechtold, 3B
21. Tyler Watson, RHP
23. Ben Rortvedt, C
24. Jacob Pearson, OF
25. Jake Cave, OF
28. Jose Miranda, 2B
29. Landon Leach, RHP
30. Yunior Severino, 2B

This is an excerpt from a story that originated at Zone Coverage. Please read it in its entirety here, and consider subscribing to support the site.
 
The Miguel Sano injury situation trudged through Day 18 on Tuesday without much of an update as the Minnesota Twins prepared to open a quick two-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals.
 
“(It was) more of the same today,” manager Paul Molitor said. “(He) ran the bases. Still, from my vantage point, we’re not seeing max effort, which we’re going to need to see. He’s swinging the bat fine. It’s just going to making sure he can do everything he needs to on a baseball field and play a position defensively.”
 
That pretty much falls in line with Molitor’s comments on Monday, where he said Sano was not “very close” to returning.
 
But whether that’s 7-to-10 days — or perhaps longer — the Twins have stomached a lack of offense without Sano for too long.
 
That’s not an indictment on Eduardo Escobar, the team’s erstwhile third baseman while Sano has been down. Coming into Tuesday’s game, Escobar is hitting a very Sano-like .274/.329/.548 with seven homers in 34 games.
 
That’s a 34-homer pace for 162 games — six more than Sano’s career-high of 28, set last season.
 
The issue has come at shortstop, as Escobar has slid over and left the spot open for Ehire Adrianza. Adrianza did a fine job as a utility player in 2017, but is clearly stretched as a regular. He’s hitting just .229/.295/.286 through 78 plate appearances this season, a little less than half the number he took last year (186) when he hit .265/.324/.383 and filled in capably all over the diamond defensively.
 
That’s not to say that Adrianza doesn’t have a spot on the 25-man roster of a winning club. He provided the Twins with a win of value — per Fangraphs’ WAR metric — last season. But if the idea was that Adrianza was only going to fill in briefly while Sano recuperated, it’s quickly becoming clear that’s no longer the case.
 
Sano’s roster spot was filled by 33-year-old journeyman Gregorio Petit, who prior to 2018 had cups of espresso with the A’s (2008-09), Astros (2014), Yankees (2015) and Angels (2016), but had only once played more than 40 games in any big league season. Even by virtue of a strong six-game stretch with the Twins where he’s hitting .429, he’s still just a career .255/.297/.355 hitter.
 
As a temporary move, adding him to the 40-man roster — and putting Ervin Santana on the 60-day DL as a corresponding transaction — was defensible. But now it seems like it’s time to take a broader look at the road ahead.
 
It’s time to promote infield prospect Nick Gordon.

I was thinking about the trade deadline today. If the Twins are still in it after the All-Star Break and don't have any huge injuries (knock on wood), they're a pretty solid team. It’s hard to see where they’d need massive upgrades.
 
• The starting rotation almost has too many options so outside of an ace, it makes little sense to get a pitcher. Even then, not sure there’s going to be a starting pitcher available who moves the dial that much.
• The bullpen has struggled at times but is deep with a lot of options in the high minors. You could make a move but the market on elite bullpen arms is always high and I’m not sure the Twins will have a need that excuses the cost.
• The starting lineup looks set. Escobar papers over any infield issues and the starting outfield is strong. And with Polanco coming back in the second half (though not the playoffs), SS seems like somewhere the Twins can hold off on an upgrade.
 
The Twins biggest targets might be more cosmetic and involve the bench. Assuming Castro isn’t gone for long, catcher is set. Infield seems good too with Adrianza and Escobar (elephant in the room about who goes when Polanco comes back).
 
The big hole for the Twins is a RH 4th outfielder who can soak up some DH at-bats. Rosario and Kepler have hit lefties well but it’d be nice to not be trotting out Grossman so regularly against LH starters. Ryan Lamarre has been a nice story but there’s room for improving the outfield depth on the MLB roster – Grossman can become a 25th man as a switch-hitting bench bat rather than an often-overmatched 4th OF.
 
The Twins will have some options to upgrade this spot but I’m hoping that Andrew McCutchen will be available and willing to come play a more bit role for a contending team. That last part is no small matter but the Giants have lost Madison and Cueto and look like a team that could plummet down the standings. McCutchen might be interested in tasting the playoffs again?
 
He would be an ideal fit. He has a career .963 OPS vs. LHP (and 1.131 OPS last year so that's not weighted by early performance). That would be solid in the Twins lineup and would also give them that big bench bat they're looking for when teams bring in left-handed relievers late (McCutchen has a higher OPS vs. LH relievers than LH starters). He’s also a capable corner OF even if he’s no longer a CF.
 
The cost would likely not be prohibitive. McCutchen is in the last year of his deal and has struggled at times this year. He fetched almost nothing this offseason – middling RH reliever Kyle Crick and Bryan Reynolds, a 2016 2nd round pick OF who hasn’t look special thus far and profiles as a 4th OF or defensive centerfielder. If the Twins are willing to eat $6-8 million in salary, I think they could get McCutchen for someone like 2017 5th round pick Andrew Bechtold. And even that might be too high - I was siding on giving up too much instead of an unrealistic pipedream.
 
Thoughts on this? I’d feel a lot more comfortable if our lineup against LHP was something like:
 
1B Mauer ( L )
2B Dozier ( R )
DH Sano ( R )
RF McCutchen ( R )
LF Rosario/Kepler ( L )
CF Buxton ( R )
3B Escobar ( S )
C Garver ( R )
SS Polanco/Adrianza ( S )
 
You could even give Joe a day off and slot Grossman in as DH with Sano playing 1B. Your bench against lefties would be Morrison, Rosario/Kepler, Grossman/Mauer and Castro. That’s not too shabby.

I originally posted this in forums but realized this is more of a blog post:
 
As we have seen over the years when given opportunities to play every day Eduardo Escobar shines.Filling in for Miguel Sano so far this year he has shown he has the bat to be 3rd baseman, posting a .993 OPS while hitting 15 doubles and 7 home runs in 2018.
 
Over his career Escobar has primarily played the left side of infield playing 322 games at short and 196 at 3rd base.However, he has played a handful of games at 2nd base in his career.The opportunities have been limited in Minnesota over the last 4 or 5 years with Dozier being a fixture there.
 
However, it has been well publicized Brian Dozier would like to test free agency this winter.And if he finds a new home, there is suddenly a glaring hole on the right side of the infield.Granted, Dozier isn't doing much to increase his value as of now, but Dozier is the type of hitter who can go on absolute tears and make month long slumps disappear, which would likely increase his value again to levels the Twins may not want to pay.
 
This is where Escobar comes in.Also a free agent at the end of the season, his reputation is not that of Dozier yet.Which means he likely will cost much less on the open market, if he gets there.
 
In small sample sizes defensively at 2nd base Eduardo's defensive metrics compare relatively close to Dozier.Escobar is nearly two years younger than Dozier as well.
 
Additionally, Escobar's ability to play multiple positions gives the Twins flexibility into the future.For example if the Twins can sign him for a 3-4 year deal this off-season he can be penciled in to be the 2nd baseman in 2019 and at least the beginning of 2020.But if Royce Lewis comes knocking in 2020 and continues to be the Shortstop everyone hopes he becomes Jorge Polanco can then be slid over to 2nd base and Esco back to 3rd assuming Sano will be a 1st baseman/DH by that time.
 
I don't think this is outside the realm of possibilities and personally believe this is a great option for the Twins future infield.
 
* Disclaimer - I am a very big Eduardo Escobar fan and am long Escobar stock.

The Minnesota Twins drafted Ricardo De la Torre in the 6th round of the 2017 MLB Draft out of BB Academy in Puerto Rico. The Twins assigned De La Torre to the GCL Twins and in 153 at bats he hit .268/.341/.359. In 42 games his fielding percentage from 3 different positions were a combined .900. I got the chance to interview him via. Instagram using Google Translate.
 
Me: What was one of the things that brought you to baseball?
 
Ricardo: One of the experiences that brought me to baseball was seeing my two brothers playing ball since childhood and they inspired me to play and I really liked baseball and thanks to my parents if it were not for them I would not achieve my dream.
 
Me: At what age was that?
 
Ricardo: At 5 years old
 
Me: Okay, what are some exercises or diets you do to keep fit?
 
Ricardo: Some of my exercises that I do is always work with my legs, strengthen my legs, that's where the strength is and I always work on continuing to strengthen my arm.
In the diet and that is already spoken with the nutritionist we already have a plan created to continue like this and my diet is to eat well and nutritious.
 
Me: What is one of your favorite foods of the diet?
 
Ricardo: One of my favorite foods is salad with breast.
 
Me: That would be my favorite too... But here's a different kind of question. How many Fortnite victories do you have?
 
Ricardo: Hahaha I have 45 victories in Fortnite
 
Me: Who is your favorite teammate to play with?
 
Ricardo: I always play with my brother, Royce Lewis.
 
Me: What connection do you think brings you two so close?
 
Ricardo: The connection was from high school when we played in All Americans and in our first year as a
professional we went to roommates.
And since then he really is one of my best friends.
 
Me: That's really great that you ended up in the same organization.
 
Ricardo: That’s it
 
Me: How many baseball cards do you think you have signed for fans?
 
Ricardo: I have signed many letters but I do not know how many specifically
 
Me: That is very nice of you to do that.
So, who was one of the most influential people in your baseball career?
 
Ricardo: One of the people was my parents.
 
I would like to thank Ricardo for answering these questions and I wish him luck on his way to the majors!

After struggling his previous two seasons in the Minnesota Twins organization, Rortvedt is on fire to start 2018. He is finally coming into his own and becoming the catcher many thought he would become when drafted in the second round out of high school in 2016. After two subpar years, the great Tom Froemming and I were still high really high on Rortvedt. Still only 20, he has plenty of room for growth, and has the opportunity to be an All-Star catcher in the big leagues.
 
Rortvedt was more known for his offense coming out of Verona Area High School in Wisconsin, but his offense has struggled so far in his first two seasons, while his defense has been a real positive. As a senior in high school, he finished the season with an on-base percentage of .568 and a slugging percentage of .667. He was considered the top offensive high school catcher in the 2016 draft. So, it was just a matter of time before his offense came around. His defense, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise.
 
On defense, he threw out 36.2 percent of potential base stealers (30 of 83) last season. So far this year, he caught the only base runner trying to steal on him. His calling of the game is much-improved as well. In an article by Mike Berardino, he talked to Twins first base coach Jeff Smith.
 
“He receives the ball well; he’s got real soft hands,” said Smith, in the Berardino article. “He gives a good target and has made huge strides in his game calling and his ability to work with his pitching coach and his pitchers. Ben can really throw, too.”
http://knuckleballsblog.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Rortvedt2017c900-600x400.jpg
In his first two seasons, the best average for him was .250 in 13 games in Elizabethton in 2016. In his other two stops, he hit .203 with the GCL Twins and .224 in his first full season with Cedar Rapids in 2017. Rortvedt, hitting .471 through four games in 2018, is off to a really nice start, which is surprising considering he started out really slow in both of his previous years. I know it is really early, but I believe he has turned a corner. He has eight hits in 17 at-bats in his four games so far. In 2016, as a rookie, he started off hitting .179 (12-67) in his first 22. It was even worse in Cedar Rapids last season, hitting just .145 (16-110) in his first two months of the season.
 
But, to his credit, he was able to bounce back from both of those slow starts. In 2016, after starting out slow in both the Gulf Coast League and Elizabethton, Rortvedt hit .313 (10-32) in his final 11 games. Unfortunately, as I mentioned, he could not carry the positive momentum into 2017 from the ending to the previous season. However, he did have a decent ending. After the woeful beginning to the season, Rortvedt finished the season batting .224, but in his final three months, he hit .268. That does not seem great, but it is a definite improvement, especially in his first full season playing professional baseball. In those final three months, he hit all four of his homers on the year. He was also the second youngest player to play for the Kernels last year, only older than 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis.
 
If Rortvedt keeps it up with the Kernels, he should be in the state of Florida by the month of June, maybe even sooner. It would also clear up a spot for David Banuelos to become the every day catcher. Banuelos came over to the Twins in an offseason trade from the Seattle Mariners for International bonus pool money. Fort Myers lacks a powerful lineup, so Rortvedt would come in and make the Miracle lineup a force. Mitchell Kranson could be due for a promotion as well, which would clear up a spot for the Verona native. With his defense being a major strength already for him, when the offense comes around, which it is starting to, the sky is the limit for the youngster.

I am always interested in the back stories – some of which are not typical baseball anecdotes. Each year now we celebrate #42 – in fact most of you reading this have already identified Jackie Robinson from his number and we can look at his Hall of Fame plaque and celebrate his strength of character as well as his baseball prowess. And there is no doubt his ten-year career is Hall Worthy. He averaged 6.1 WAR with a peak of 9.7 despite the hate and abuse he endured daily. His career average was .311 and he had just under 20 stolen bases per year at a time when his baserunning forced a change in the opposing teams fielding and pitching strategies. He had a career OPS+ of 132. Late summer saw pitcher Dan Bankhead join Jackie on the team.
 
Of course, he was not the first black player in the majors – that would be Moses Fleetwood Walker of the Toledo Blue Stockings, however, because of the racism of the game’s biggest star – Cap Anson – he was forced not to play against the Chicago team and it established a racist code that would not be broken until Robinson over a half century later. Yes, I do resent Anson and I admit that he was not the only racist, but no one else had his leverage or sought to use it like he did.
 
Mid-season of 1947 the American League brought in it’s first black player – Larry Doby with the Cleveland Indians. He had played for the Newark Eagles in the Negro League and like Jackie, served in the war before breaking in to MLB. In his second season with Cleveland he was joined by the already ancient – Satchell Paige – and they won the world series. He accumulated 49.6 WAR in 12 ½ years with a 286 BA and 135 OPS+. He too is in the Hall of Fame.
 
Less recognized was Hank Thompson and Willard Brown who played for the St Louis Browns in 1947. Coming in two days apart they were the third and fourth African American players to integrate the game. Thompson was a third baseman with seven seasons in the Negro Leagues and was known for his strong arm. He played nine years of MLB before being sold to the Minneapolis Millers. He achieved 24.8 WAR in 8 ½ years batting 267 with a 116 OPS+. When Brown joined him it was the first game with two African Americans starting for one team. “Home Run” Brown had played in the Negro Leagues for 13 years before coming to MLB and he opened his career with an inside the park home run, but racism drove him from the game and back to the Negro Leagues.
 
1948 saw the Dodgers add another Hall of Famer – Roy Campanella and Cleveland add Hall of Famer Satchel Paige. Campanella suffered a terrible car accident and paralysis to end his career. The Catcher had 34.1 WAR for 10 years, batted 276, averaged 24 homeruns and had 123 OPS+. How does his stats match up with Mauer before his concussion? Roy had three MVPs.
 
Entering 1949 only three teams had added black players and only one team – The New York Giants with a very old Monte Irvin would add to the ranks. Irvin had only 7 1/2 years left on his Hall of Fame career, but he made the most of them with 21.3 WAR, 293 BA, and 125 OPS+. The other teams that had black players added to their rosters too. Minnie Minoso joined the Cleveland Indians and should be in the Hall of Fame. He had 50.3 WAR, nine times an all-star, a 298 average and OPS+ of 130. Luke Easter was 33 and played only three full seasons out of six that he appeared in with 9.3 WAR, 274BA and 125 OPS+ . The Dodgers added too – Don Newcombe. Newcombe would go 149 – 90, 3.56 ERA with 38 WAR in 10 years with a two year military service breaking up the consecutive years of playing.
 
Going in to the 1950’s the braves added Sam Jethroe in centerfield. He would achieve 8.7 WAR in three years and was 33 when he debuted. In 1951 the league had its biggest surge in black players. The Braves added Luis Marquez, the Giants Ray Noble and Artie Wilson, and a guy named Willie Mays! I do not need to give Mays stats to remind you of his status. The White Sox joined the list of teams with two signings in 1951 – Sam Hairston and Bob Boyd, while the Indians continued to add with pitcher Sam Jones (102- 101).
 
Entering the 1952 season there were 16 teams and only six had African-American players. In 1953 Philadelphia (Now Oakland) A’’s added Bob Trice and the Cubs hit the jackpot with Ernie Banks! This meant half the teams now had crossed the colored barrier.
 
1954 saw that jump to ¾ when Curt Roberts signed with the Pirates, Tom Alston with the Cardinals, Nino Escalero and Chuck Harmon joined the Reds and Carlos Paula signed with our predecessors – the Senators.
The Yankees finally moved in 1955 with Elston Howard, a terrific catcher, who might have been a HOF except for having to share a position with Yogi Berra. John Kennedy signed with the Phillies in 1957 leaving just two teams without African American representation.
 
Detroit with the largest African American population of any city in the US was next to move and signed Ozzie Virgil, Sr in 1958! It took the team 11 years to get the courage or rather to overcome their biases.
 
And this left Boston. It was 1959 when the last team broke the color barrier and signed Elijah "Pumpsie" Green. Green pinch-ran for Vic Wertz in a 2-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Later in 1959 Earl Wilson became the first black pitcher to play for the Boston Red Sox.
 
According to baseball historians the Red Sox held a try out for Jackie Robinson in 1945 but decided not to sign him. They could have been first but ended up last and certainly lost out on a lot more. Jackie led the Dodgers to six pennants and one World Series victory in his 10 seasons in Brooklyn. We know how long it took the Red Sox to get their series title.
 
As bad as that miss was, two years later, the Red Sox had a chance to sign Willie Mays, but passed again.
Pumpsie Green retired in 1963 after five seasons in the big leagues, four in Boston and one as a sub for the New York Mets. He hit .246 added 2.9 War, 721 OPS.
 
Think of what this initial class meant to baseball – Hall of Famers: Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, Satchel Paige, Roy Campanella, Ernie Banks, Monte Irvin, and Willie Mays. Add to that list Hank Aaron who also debuted in the Negro League before signing with the Braves. Plus all-stars – Elston Howard and Minnie Minoso. Considering the time from Fleetwood Walker to Jackie Robinson it is acceptable to look at the baseball records with some question marks.

Through eight games in the 2018 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins have played to a .500 record. Having had to deal with blistering cold, and even some snow, it's hardly felt like a true baseball season. If there's one thing that has felt warm and fuzzy however, it's been the look and output of first basemen Joe Mauer.
In 2017, Mauer returned to the land of .300 batting averages for the first time since 2013. He posted an .801 OPS bolstered by a .384 OBP all while looking the part of a guy that has a trio of batting titles under his belt. Having already transformed himself into a Gold Glove caliber first basemen, getting back to his old ways at the dish was a nice sigh to see. What's encouraging is that early returns in 2018 suggest that there may be more to come.
 
To understand where we are, we should probably take a look back at where we've been. The last time Mauer was considered "himself" in 2013, he was putting balls in play with a 37.4% hard hit rating. His chase rates (O-Swing %) and swinging strike percentages have really never gotten out of line, which indicates that his going well has always been a reflection of barreling the baseball. Fast forward to when things took a turn for the worst, and we find ourselves at the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Mauer's .732 and .718 OPS in those two seasons respectively are a career worst. It's no coincidence that those numbers were posted in conjunction with 28% and 29.8% hard hit rates.
 
Now let's jump back to the present. A year ago, Mauer looked like a revitalized and rejuvenated player. His 2.2 fWAR last year was a high water mark since the last time he was an All Star (2013), and it was backed by a 36.4% hard hit rate. What's great is that the early returns in 2018 don't make that look like an anomaly, and if anything, suggest that things may be trending even a bit better.
 
Sure it's early, so let's pump the breaks on another MVP type season, but Mauer's start is pretty eye-popping. Thus far the Twins first basemen has a career best 47.6% hard hit rate, and he's already put 11 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. A season ago his total was 204 and right now he's on pace to slightly eclipse that with a total of 223. Diving in even a bit further to those barreled balls, 10 of the 11 have been hit 100 mph or harder. In 2018 Mauer generated exit velocities of 100+ mph on 105 different occasions. With his current pace, he'd nearly double that in 2018 as he tracking towards 203 occurrences.
 
What we're seeing in the early going from Mauer is a batter that's not only locked in, but one that isn't being cheated either. His 13.4% chase rate is more than 3% better than at any other point in his career. Having always had a very good idea of where the strike zone is, Joe is currently dictating at bats, than walloping the baseball when it comes into his hitting zone. Last season, Mauer's 13.9 K% was 26th among qualified MLB hitters. At just 10% out of the gate in 2018, only 15 qualified hitters have posted better numbers.
 
There's no denying that there's a level of regression awaiting its turn to set in. After all, Mauer has a current seven game hitting streak and owns a .375/.500/.542 slash line out of the gate. The .429 BABIP is incredibly high, but also reflective of the quality contact he's continued to generate. Even with regression though, the process has yielded results that should display a level of sustainability with the assumption that the blueprint is stuck to over the course of the season.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota isn't going to watch Joe Mauer win another batting title by the end of his career (Jose Altuve exists in the American League). What is becoming more clear however, is that there's some serious ability left in the tank for a guy trending towards a Hall of Fame career. On the final year of his deal with the Twins, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be well served to bring this guy back for another couple of years. If Joe wants to keep trotting out to the diamond, it doesn't seem like his skills have told him that's a bad idea.
 
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We are close to the beginning of the baseball season, so it is time to release my top 10 prospects for the Minnesota Twins. There are so many prospects who could make a huge jump and knock on the door of the top 10. After losing 2016 first round pick Alex Kirilloff for the whole 2017 season, he will be back. This is a deep prospect list and many could eventually make the big leagues.
 
10) Akil Baddoo, OF (2017 teams: GCL, Elizabethton)
 
Before Terry Ryan was fired, Baddoo was in his last draft class. He is one of two on this list from this class (Kirilloff). After being ranked outside the top 20 Twins prospects, Baddoo had a huge 2017 campaign. After having a batting average of .267 with the GCL Twins, he was promoted to Elizabethton, and he took off. While in Tennessee, he hit .357 and had an OPS of an incredible 1.057. He had 45 hits with Elizabethton in 126 at-bats, and nearly half of his hits (20) were of the extra base variety. In addition to those stats, he had 27 walks and 19 strikeouts with Elizabethton. All that while being more than two years younger than his competition. If he can replicate his play from 2017, he could knock on the door of the top five. The sky is the limit for the 19-year-old.
 
9) Blayne Enlow, SP (2017 team: GCL Twins)
 
After being talked about as a possible first round pick last year, Enlow fell to the third round due to signability, where the Twins grabbed him. There was plenty of buzz surrounding him heading into his debut last summer, and he did not disappoint. In 20.1 innings, Enlow had an ERA of 1.33 and held opponents to a .141 batting average and an OPS of just .433. He also struck out 8.4 per nine, and had a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.75. Enlow gave up just 4.4 hits per nine and had a WHIP of 0.69. Enlow has a curveball that is the best in the organization and if he can add a bit of velocity, he will sky rocket up prospect lists. The 19-year-old will likely start in Elizabethton, but will be in Cedar Rapids by the end of the year.
 
8. Brusdar Graterol, SP (2017 teams: GCL, Elizabethton)
 
Graterol missed the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, but when he came back in 2017, he picked up right where he left off. In five games with the GCL Twins, he was 2-0 with an ERA of 1.40 and a WHIP of just 0.72 in 19.1 innings. When he was promoted to Elizabethton, he struggled a bit (especially compared to his showing in the GCL). In his 20.2 innings in Tennessee, he had an ERA of 3.92 and a WHIP of 1.21, but did have a strikeout ratio of 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. With the tougher competition in the Appy League, his control took a dip. After walking just four in 19.1 innings for the GCL Twins, he walked nine in 20.2 innings for Elizabethton. After throwing 85-87 when he signed out of Venezuela, he reaches triple digits now. If he can improve his off-speed pitches to complement his heater, he can be an ace with the Twins.
 
7. Alex Kirilloff (2017: missed season)
 
Kirilloff had a very solid 2016, hitting .306 with seven homers and 33 RBI in 55 games. Not bad for being thrown to Elizabethton after being drafted out of high school. He will likely be a corner outfielder with the big club, but can play center when needed. The reason he was drafted so high is his power. The 20-year-old has a chance to hit 25-30 homers when he develops and ends up in Minneapolis. After playing in Tennessee in 2016, Kirilloff will start in Cedar Rapids on what will most likely be a loaded Kernels lineup.
 
6. Brent Rooker, OF/1B (2017 teams: Elizabethton, Fort Myers)
 
Rooker was selected in the first round by the Twins, and started in Elizabethton and mashed. He started out a bit slow, but finished hitting .282 and an OPS of .952. Of his 24 hits with the E’Town Twins, Rooker crushed seven homers and exactly half of his hits were extra bases. After he was promoted to high-A Fort Myers, he kept smashing. With the Miracle, he hit .280 with 11 more bombs. He had close to the same stats in Florida as he had in Tennessee. The only major dip was in slugging, where he slugged .552 after slugging .588 in Elizabethton. But still, .552 is extremely good. He still strikes out too much, but that is fine when he hits homers at the rate he does. Rooker has the potential to hit 40 homers in the big leagues. The former Mississippi State standout will start in Chattanooga, and if dominates there, I would not be surprised if he ends up in Minneapolis by the end of the season.

With the Minnesota Twins now involved in spring training action, and exhibition games well under way, it's a good time to take a look at the 25 that will head north with the club at the end of March. Having had significant turnover and uncertainty throughout seasons in recent memory, 2018 brings a breath of fresh air. This club should be relatively simple to project, and that's the mark of a strong team.
 
Following up a Postseason berth and a strong showing over the course of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Twins had a few key areas to improve in order to take the next step. This offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have executed a near flawless blueprint, and they have the product on the field positioned to make a run for the AL Central division title.
 
Although not set in stone, there's significant clarity when it comes to deciphering the Opening Day 25 man, and here's a good bet at what it could look like:
 
Infielders (9)
Jason Castro C
Mitch Garver C
Ehire Adrianza Util
Brian Dozier 2B
Eduardo Escobar Util
Joe Mauer 1B
Jorge Polanco SS
Miguel Sano 3B
Logan Morrison 1B

Both catcher positions are all but locked in, and the starting combination up the middle should be set. Joe Mauer is inked at first, and Logan Morrison will back him up while serving as the full-time designated hitter. Although Adrianza could be pushed by Erick Aybar for a job, I think the former's best chance to get on the roster is a potential suspension to Miguel Sano. Sano is already set to play the field in spring training games, so his injury recovery should be all but over. Major League Baseball has yet to speak with Miguel in regards to allegations, and no matter what the outcome, I'd think a 30 game suspension is the max penalty. Outside of the third basemen, there really is no level of intrigue here.
 
Outfielders (4)
Byron Buxton CF
Robbie Grossman LF/RF
Max Kepler RF
Eddie Rosario LF

This group is virtually locked in as well. The trio of "Nothing falls but raindrops" is a given, and their rotational fourth should end up being Grossman. Zack Granite is a significantly better defender, and would provide a nice speed option on the bench, but he has options remaining and is available to Minnesota at any point in time. I could see Granite forcing his way onto the roster this spring, but the more likely scenario is that Grossman sticks until it no longer works. The Twins would need to DFA him, and doing that before necessary doesn't seem like a pressing matter.
 
Pitchers (12)
Jose Berrios SP
Tyler Duffey RP
Zach Duke RP
Kyle Gibson SP
Trevor Hildenberger RP
Phil Hughes SP
Adalberto Mejia SP
Jake Odorizzi SP
Ryan Pressly RP
Addison Reed RP
Fernando Rodney RP
Taylor Rogers RP

Despite not having Ervin Santana available to them out of the gate, I'd still imagine the Twins go with a full five-man starting rotation. That group would include Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia, and Hughes. The last two spots are somewhat up in the air, but Hughes' contract should afford him an opportunity, and Minnesota would need to see significant improvement from Anibal Sanchez this spring to pencil him in. The relief corps is vastly improved, and that group should be relatively set in stone. If Minnesota is serious about using Duffey as a starter, I suppose a trip to Triple-A could make some sense, in which case Alan Busenitz takes his spot in the bullpen.
 
Again, in comparison to recent years, this Minnesota Twins squad has the least amount of question marks when looking at Opening Day. Obviously that's a great thing, and a testament to the talent available to Paul Molitor. Having defined roles and positions from the get go is a good place to be, and allows the club to work from depth as situations present themselves.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Over nearly four months, the Twins have approached the 2017-18 offseason with a keen eye on the 2018 regular season, as with 29 other major league teams (well, more or less, I suppose) to hit the ground running for another playoff push and potential run at the World Series. After all, winning the last game of the season should be the target for every team, right?
 
In reality, we as informed fans know these things come in stages. The landscape of baseball, especially at the onset of the season, allows us to stand atop the ridge and survey the battlefield in front of us. The Twins have an opening window, and Twins Territory has seen the bright lights of the playoffs once again after many years of being in the cellar. Looking around the Central Division, we can see our foes and size them up.
 
The White Sox, having dealt away the majority of their established talent over the last few seasons, are in the midst of their rebuilding. The window is not yet open on the South Side, but the future sure does look bright. The Tigers, on the other hand, have had their window shut - after years of dominate teams - the aging stars of the '00's and the early teens have either seen themselves traded away (Verlander, JD Martinez) or succumbing to the effects injuries and age (Victor Martinez, Miggy Cabrera). Father time, after all, gets everyone in the end. Dayton Moore's Royals have also seen their window shutting. Attempting one more valiant push for the playoffs in 2017, only to see their core players from their 2015 World Series winning team slowly leave via free agency (Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain, Alcides Escobar).
 
The Cleveland Indians may still stand atop the Central Division, lead by outstanding starting pitchers Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, as well as phenom shortstop Francisco Lindor, All Star Jose Ramirez at 3B and a healthy Michael Brantley back in left field. An uphill climb for the Twins, to be sure, but not an impossible task. The Indians are not a perfect team, but the onus is on the Twins to usurp them as Division champions.
 
That is where our focus starts, but surely not where it ends.
 
Building a Championship Team, New and Improved
 
The Twins watched for years, or decades, as teams with giant payroll capacity steamrolled their way to championships. Sure, you had the '03 Marlins thrown in for good measure to keep things honest, but the vast majority of World Series winners over the past 20 years have shown that they could afford to sit at the high rollers table. The Cardinals won it all in 2011, but they had the greatest player on the planet, at the time, in Albert Pujols, a hall of fame manager in Tony LaRussa and a pitching staff lead by a former Cy Young winner, the revitalized Cris Carpenter. The Twins never quite had all the stars align to make a run.
 
The Twins, though having compiled many competitive seasons during the 2000's, were never the big fish. We weren't the sharks. We didn't swallow our opponents whole, we nibbled them into submission. We were the pirahna's. We had Cy Young pitchers, we had MVP players, we had great managing and a front office that kept us in the hunt for years. We just never had all of it at the same time.
 
However, the old way of building a championship team - throwing as much money as possible at a roster, accruing as much established talent and stars - is out of fashion. As much chagrin as fans have experienced over these last several months of Hot Stove (or more aptly, Cold Stove) season, we have the Collective Bargaining Agreement to thank for the Luxury Tax threshold penalties, draft penalties, repeat offender penalties, etc. Even the Evil Empire itself has shown incentive to temper their spending, opting instead to embrace the youth movement. Everyone is either in a race to get younger, faster, more talented (and cheaper), or they are tearing down - tanking - in order to start the trudging process of rebuilding.
 
Commodities like JD Martinez, Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta - who, if they had been free agents while the "old", draconian team building method - would have been all but guaranteed to be the largest salary-getters of the offseason. The pedigree and prior performance alone would have garnered bidding races to add them to existing rosters at, perhaps, hundreds of millions of dollars over extended years. The focus has shifted, teams have gotten more informed, more savvy and less willing to be penalized. Young, talented players - starting pitchers, especially - have become the new wave most prized commodity, with teams willing to sell the farm in order to milk the pre-free agency years from these budding stars.
 
Enter: 2018 Minnesota Twins
 
The Twins enter the 2018 season, watching their young core players like Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios, develop into potential stars. Buxton, fresh off his gold glove winning 2017 season in which he turned around a putrid start to the season, with a wRC+ of 59, only to torch the second half to the tune of wRC+ 130.
Berrios pitched solidly all season, despite a rough and confusing orientation into the league in 2016, with an ERA of 3.89 and FIP of 3.84 - suggesting that despite the excellent defense behind him, he wasn't solely benefiting from the fruits of their labors. His K/9 rate of 8.59 was the best on the staff, which sorely lacked strikeout pitching, and limited the damage of the long ball. He was a much better pitcher at home (as most pitchers outside of Coors Field or other bandbox parks are), but Berrios will need to keep improving in this way. His wOBA (.246H vs. .345A) is concerning, as is the fact he gave up four times as many home runs on the road as he did at Target Field (3H vs. 12A). All of which lead to his home ERA being significantly lower (2.41ERA) to his road (5.17ERA).
 
The future, though, is bright in Minnesota. Building in the vein of the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros, both of whom have experience similar rebuilding efforts in recent years, watching their former high level draft picks like Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa become cornerstones of perennial championship contending teams. The Twins have moved, almost in lock step, watching and proceeding with their rebuild. Buxton and Berrios, both 2012 draft picks, are part of that - as are other young, key contributors like (another) potential star Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario.
 
Beyond this season, and perhaps for some - later in 2018, Twins prospects are flooding the pipeline and will be pressing their major league counterparts, soon. Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, Nick Gordon, Brent Rooker and perhaps the most exciting young shortstop prospect since the aforementioned Correa and Lindor - 2017 1st overall draft pick, Royce Lewis. The Twins certainly seem to progressing according to plan.
 
Trust the method.
 
What Needs To Go Right
 
The Twins will likely never be the Chicago Cubs. Even in their worst years, they still drew droves of their rabidly passionate fans to the bleacher seats. They still spent money on free agents. They can adapt to the changing landscape, whether that's a youth movement or attempting to buy a championship. They have the resources and media market to go either way. When the Cubs brought Theo Epstein in to be their "Curse breaker", the same way he had done in Boston years before, he immediately shifted the paradigm in Chicago. No longer would they be middling, buying the Alfonso Soriano's of the world to try to win 84 games. They would tear it down, re-access and build from the inside. He made the "rebuild" cool, because it had vision. "Theoball" has been thrown around as a term for the latest, greatest way to build a team. Its hard to deny, after 3 World Championship teams under his reign - the man is a genius.
 
On the other hand, the Houston Astros are a better model for the Twins to follow - step for step, that is. When the Astros announced in 2011 that they knew they wouldn't be able to compete, in fact, they planned on not being able to compete, and were upfront and honest with their fanbase about their rebuilding approach, I won't lie to you, I thought they were out of their minds. How brazen, how ludicrous, can management be? Not only will we be fielding a 'quad-A' team this season, but for several seasons? The season ticket holders shall surely riot! After 3 straight seasons of 100 loss teams and one 90 loss team, something changed. Their recent draft picks, the ones they had stocked up on - Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., George Springer, Alex Bregman - had all reached the bigs. They were all producing. Correa was a Rookie of the Year. Keuchel won a Cy Young. In 2017, they put it all together and won it all. On the backs and talent of their young stars, AJ Hinch and a management team that had the guts to rebuild when it wasn't popular.
 
The Twins are on the verge of a similar cycle. I won't say that the Twins are guaranteed a World Series if they follow the mold, this is baseball after all, but I will say this - look at the trend. Look at the similarity.
 
In the same way that Theo Epstein and Jeff Luhnow tore it down to build it back anew, Thad Levine and Derek Falvey are massaging this team into a potential championship caliber roster. The talent is emerging, Buxton and Berrios. Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Gonsalves and others. Royce Lewis is on the way, already burning through on the "Joe Mauer track" in the minor leagues.
 
The onus is on management to make sure that this scouted and drafted talent is driven to their full potential. The noise surrounding Anibal Sanchez signing, hearkened back memories to a time when the former Terry Ryan-lead group would pander to the fanbase with mediocre (or plain bad), past-their-prime signings of Bret Boone and Sidney Ponson. But a closer look will see that its calculated. The knee jerk reaction of the fans didn't see, or know, Trevor May wasn't ready to start the year, so his 60 Day DL stint effectively opens up a spot for a flier on a guy like Sanchez. Josh Kalk, Twins pitching analyst and forefather of the pitchF/X, perhaps with others in scouting, may have seen redeeming value in not only Sanchez, but also well-knocked around former top prospect Jake Odorizzi.
 
The talent pool is deep, and the moves are less pandering and more about calculated risk/reward. The same can be said about signing Fernando Rodney, an established closer who - despite pitching in an offensive division and a bandbox park of Chase Field - held on to his closing role with a playoff team in 2017. Newly signed Logan Morrision slugged 38 home runs with the Tampa Bay Rays, opting to join the Twins as (assumably) a primary DH and to spell Joe Mauer at first base. A savvy move, and hard to argue the upgrade quality over a potential Kennys Vargas/Robbie Grossman log-jam. There is reason to be excited.
 
The Missing Piece(s)
 
The missing pieces the Twins have left to fill in this puzzle to assemble a championship team are always going to be the most difficult. As a hopeful bystander during the courting of Yu Darvish, the Twins need a true ace. A stopper every fifth day, someone to right the ship when the dog days hit or the bats disappear. A guy who can win a 1-0 game when the team is in a rut. Johan Santana was the last, true ace in Minnesota, and that was over a decade ago. The Astros had not only Keuchel, their homegrown number 1, but also brought in Justin Verlander as a 1A in 2017. The Cubs in 2016 had their three headed monster of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks - none of whom had an ERA over 3.10 in the regular season. Even the upstart Royals in 2015 brought in Johnny Cueto to flank their extremely talented and exciting young Yordano Ventura, who before his untimely death, showed promise to be a front line starter for years to come.
 
Darvish, though, signed with the North-Siders in Chicago, and with no other clear ace on the market, the Twins have a choice to either add or stand pat with the remaining starting pitchers on the free agent market. While Jake Arrieta has the name and star power, its likely with his velocity drop and entering his age 32 season, that the days of being an established ace are behind him. Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, while good pitchers in their own right, are not number 1's. They are number 3's on a good team, and while they would still make solid additions to this years Twins roster, I believe the need for a true ace still exists.
 
Perhaps The Twins could add one at the trade deadline, as the Astros and Royals did during their World Series runs? The possibility exists, and names like Chris Archer and Marcus Stroman have been floated as targets, but will this management team be willing to pay the cost to acquire? Dallas Keuchel (and Clayton Kershaw, but lets not go crazy here) is on the free agent market next season, does it make more sense to wait, let your team gel and develop another year before selling the farm for an Archer or Stroman in trade - use your monetary capital as opposed to your talent capital to get that ace? We all have our individual opinions on the direction our favorite team goes, and many of us feel like we could arm-chair quarterback our way to a World Series - but the powers that be in the General Manager's office and beyond have far more information, and the choice to follow the road they've laid out for us in Twins Territory requires patience, but its compelling.
 
Much has to go right for the Twins to be a World Series Champion in 2018. The last two champions have had Cy Young winners and MVP's leading the charge, that is a high bar for the Twins young talent to clear. The Twins do, however, have the beginnings of a World Series championship caliber team, and who's to say this isn't our year?
 
It is baseball, after all, and anything can happen.