DannySD

Go ahead, give me your hokey analytics about "Joey Gallo only hits .200," "There are now 5 lefty corner outfielders on this team," and "Joey Gallo has the highest K rate of all time." Well guess what nerds, I care about the stallion in the Italian, not what his "box score" may look like.
Jokes aside, although not a world-moving acquisition, I think that it makes some sense, though it broke at an unfortunate time--two days after Correa signed with San Francisco and one day after Carlos Rodón signed with New York. Certainly, if the Twins' biggest signing this offseason is Joey Gallo, fans have reason to be upset. I do follow the offseason move-to-move and react to each move, but I am not one to put the label OFFSEASON FAILED on a team until the season begins and the Opening Day roster is finalized.
First, though, let's cover the negatives. Gallo had a horrendous season last year, with a slash line of .160/.280/.357. If he performs like that again in 2023, he will likely be out of the league. He strikes out way too much and has a laughably low batting average, and that can only be expected to continue without an approach change. Players' bat-to-ball skills do not improve with age, and Gallo will enter 2023 as a 29-year-old. Furthermore, Gallo enters a crowded space of left-handed corner outfielders alongside Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Matt Wallner. Of all the player types the Twins could have pursued, they got a guy who plays at their arguably deepest position.
With those strikes against him, why don't I mind the signing? There are a few reasons:
The corner depth is hypothetical
Yes, there is a glut of corner outfield depth on this roster, and they are all lefties (with the exception of Gilberto Celestino, who is a corner guy in name only, given his poor stick). However, let's go through those options. Even before the Gallo signing, Kepler was going to be moved. Even if he didn't already have one foot out the door, it's debatable that Kepler would be better than Gallo. Both have high floors, given their defensive ability, but Kepler, outside of 2019, has not shown the chops to be anything better than a league average hitter. Gallo, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit at an all-star level as recently as 2021.
After Kepler, the top two guys are Kirilloff and Larnach, neither of which have proven much of anything between 2021 and 2022. Both have shown flashes of potential to be high-level hitters, and I still believe in them, but both have also been bogged down by significant injuries. Gordon was on the shortlist to be DFAed during the 2022 season prior to his development as a top hitter in the depleted Twins lineup in 2022, but his performance was bolstered by a high BAPIP and he is more suited as a utility player than an everyday left fielder or the strong side of a platoon. Wallner impressed last season at both AA and AAA and had a solid run after his late season callup, but that's all the major league experience that he has.
Between the four of them, they have 1,584 MLB plate appearances combined, the equivalent of about three seasons as an everyday player. If the Twins started the season without Kepler or another corner outfield acquisition, they would start with Kirilloff in left and Larnach in right, and if either of them got injured, which is likely given their history, Gordon would be pushed into an everyday role, and Wallner would probably be up as a fourth outfielder. I think that they can all ball, but that's a thin group to enter the season with.
I do believe that there is another righty bat coming the Twins way (Jurickson Profar is the guy I want to see now), and I can be convinced that it's not the end of the world for either Larnach or Kirilloff to start the season in AAA, given that neither is a sure thing.
Joey Gallo can reasonably become Joey Gallo again
In terms of buy-low hitters, Gallo probably has the highest ceiling outside of Cody Bellinger and his 17.5MM contract with a 12MM mutant option for 2024. When Gallo is playing at the form he's capable of, he can get on-base 35% of the time despite his astronomical strikeout rate and low batting average because of his astronomical walk rate (13% for his career). He can bop 30+ homers, with two 40 home run seasons to his name. He can play Gold Glove defense in right field.
Obviously, there's a lot of ifs in this conversation, but it's better to take a shot at a guy like Gallo than to fill a spot with a low-ceiling Trey Mancini, AJ Pollack, or Adam Frazier type of player for the same money. If you're going to give out a one-year contract to a veteran, give it to someone who is one year removed from an All Star season and is still under 30.
If the Twins and Gallo are fortunate and he makes good on his prove-it deal, he will likely be up for a big payday prior to the 2024 season. The Twins would love to watch him go. It would mean that he turned in a good year for the team, helping them contend for an AL Central title. However, there is an added bonus that only schmucks like me care about. Because he performed poorly in his final arbitration year (and was traded in-season), he did not receive a qualifying offer and is eligible for one in 2024. If he puts up a Gallo-esque season with a 125 OPS+, 35 homers, and great right field defense, he would likely decline the offer, giving the Twins an extra draft pick for 2024. I for one would like to see that happen.
Positional flexibility
Gallo is a great right fielder, due to his solid range and great arm. He also has experience at all three outfield positions, first base, and third base. I don't see Gallo ever returning to the hot corner.

gallo.mp4  
 
However, we all know that the Twins love themselves some position flexibility. The only alignment that would make sense to put Gallo at first base would be three of Byron Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino being in the game alongside Gallo, as they would likely prefer Kirilloff and Wallner at first over him. Still, the option is there.
More importantly is his ability to fill in in centerfield. He has not played there much since 2019, partially due to the personnel of the teams he was on. He didn't look bad in his work in center, though it has been 4 years since he had significant time out there. That being said, he would provide an extra layer of security for centerfield, which is important given Buxton's injury history.
Is he a long-term replacement candidate if Buxton misses extended time with injury? Probably not, but I would bet that he will end up playing more centerfield this year than Max Kepler, another top defensive right fielder with the ability to play center, did last year (9 innings across 3 games). I wrote about the importance of having a third centerfielder and keeping Celestino down in AAA for the sake of the team and the player a couple weeks ago. Gallo fits the bill there.
It's only 11 million for one year
The cat was out of the bag by the time Gallo signed: the Twins do not plan on devoting 25MM+ to any one player this offseason. With 50MM to spend to reach last year's payroll, it's not a terrible use of 11MM. If he hits .160 through May and Wallner is killing it at AAA, I don't think the Twins will sweat the lost pay. He can easily be cut at that level.
All of this is incumbent on him hitting at least .200, but that's a given.

Us under 30-year-olds want one thing from Minnesota sports. A championship. We want the stories handed down by our parents of how crazy the State was in 87 and 91. We want I94 closed. We want to be nationally relevant. Much has been made of the 0-18 playoff record and many hot takes and debates have raged over social media. It seems like anything the Twins do at this point will be met with unnecessary cruel criticism and unwarranted unwavering support. So here is my useless take to add to the mix, and I am afraid it is not going to be popular among the Twins Haters and Twins Supporters. But maybe a small minority will support me.
Twins need to reset and rebuild.
No more chasing the offseason whales of Donaldson and Correa, no more trading prospects for mediocre talent that is oft injured and fails to make any sort of impact. We should start trading aging players no matter how beloved and rebuild our prospect pool. We need to analyze what has gone wrong in the scouting, drafting, and developing of pitching prospects and change our approach there. If the Twins and Pohlads really want to have an impact playoff run, then they need to strip it down for the next 2-3 years and then rebuild it back up.
Many of you will argue otherwise. But I ask a simple question. Do they have a competitive roster right now? The obvious answer is no. So as an organization you have 3 choices:
Add players to it through Free Agency or Trade to make a playoff run. Maintain course and hope you have the most luck any baseball team has ever had. Tear it down and rebuild. Option 1. Adding would be a gigantic mistake. You already missed out on impact free agents. Throwing money and more importantly years at non-impact free agents is never a good idea for any market, much less a mid-market team. Trading prospects to add talent is also not wise. You already have a depleted farm system due to poor drafting and trades for non-impact players. What available trade is there to make that could lift this roster to make an impact trade? The answer of course is no. You would need 4-5 trades to do so, and you do not have the prospects to do that.
Option 2. Staying on the course seems like a non-option. I get it, the division is bad, maybe we can luck our ways into the playoffs and then who knows. But given the vitriol on Twitter and other social media sites this also seems like a non-option. This front office/coaching staff is most likely fired if they have another 70–80-win season and fail to make the playoffs. Even if they do the roster is incomparable to other playoff teams and increasing 0-18 to 0-20 is only going to enrage an already volatile fanbase.
Option 3. Tear it down. This is the only logical course of action. It will be painful. Trade Arraez, Trade Buxton, Trade Kepler, Trade Polanco, Trade Mahle, Trade Gray, even Trade Kiriloff who is oft injured. Trading any player with value but has a huge flaw that limits them from being an impact playoff performer. Get prospects in return, use good fortune in the draft to start rebuilding this thing. Start drafting and developing impact pitching.
 
It may not work in the end; it may turn out to be another period like 2011-2016. But it is the only course this organization can take if they want to win a championship. This front office/coaching staff won’t do it because they want to save their jobs. But if the ownership has a real long-term vision this would be the only clear path of action.
 
 

Who will win the AL Central in 2021? Since the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, added Adam Eaton to address a need in the OF and then spent big to add Liam Hendriks to their bullpen, the White Sox have been the favorite to win the division. ESPN recently posted their projected All-Stars for 2021. Let's just say it was much kinder to the White Sox:
 
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833382/let-predict-2021-mlb-all-star-rosters-al-nl
 
They projected 6 White Sox and didn't include Abreu. The Twins had a few mentions (Garver, Donaldson and Buxton) but mostly because of injury questions. Cruz was the only Twin on the list. While it does appear that the Sox may have more star power, let's analyze how the teams stack up.
 
Let's start with the rotations, where the top 5 for the Twins are likely Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak. The White Sox projected top 5 are Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez. The Twins had a team ERA of 3.58 and the White Sox were at 3.81. I would agree that adding Lynn (as much as it pains me) improves the Sox slightly more that Happ does the Twins. Keuchel is due for some significant regression, but Giolito should make up for some of that. Maeda isn't likely to repeat a #2 in the Cy young race season, but some continued improvement by Berrios and a full year of Pineda can make up for some of his regression. While the starters can be slotted in multiple orders, I feel confident in saying the Twins win two of the matchups and the White Sox 2 with the #5 spot being a push. Overall, I think these rotations are very comparable.
 
The Hendriks signing for the White Sox clearly helps their bullpen, but the subtraction of Colome should not be dismissed. The White Sox rely on a younger group of relievers behind Hendriks that do have promise. Whether the Twins will have an improved bullpen this year is up for debate. Adding Colome, Robles and Anderson while removing May, Romo and Clippard would suggest a downgrade. The Twins front office and coaching staff have shown the ability to build a very solid bullpen with what sometimes looks like questionable parts. I do like the upside of Jorge Alcala and hope he can fill a role similar to Trevor May from last season. I like the top three of the Twins (Colome, Rogers and Duffey) over the Sox, but I think I would give the Sox a slight edge at this point. It does still feel like the Twins might have a Clippard-like signing to finish off their offseason.
 
Thus far, I would give the White Sox an ever so slight advantage. Now let's analyze each position. At catcher, the White Sox may have the more complete player in Grandal, but if Garver can find some of his 2019 form I feel like the Twins have a slight edge due to their depth with Jeffers. At first it's Abreu vs Sano. It's hard to argue against last year's AL MVP, but the White Sox edge at 1B may not be as great as it appears. The 34 year old definitely benefited from the short season as he put up an OPS 150 pts higher than either of the previous two seasons. It was encouraging to see Sano play 53/60 games for the Twins this past year and it's not unreasonable to think Sano could match Abreu's output this season, although I still give Abreu the edge. The Simmons signing for the Twins helps them in multiple ways. Moving Jorge Polanco to 2B gives the Twins the edge at 2B over Nick Madrigal, although Arraez may have already had that edge. Polanco provides much more pop than Madrigal. Moving Arraez to Util also give the Twins an edge over fielding-first Danny Mendick. The White Sox have the edge at SS with the back-to-back .300 seasons from Tim Anderson over Andrelton Simmons. To round out the infield, we have the interesting case of Josh Donaldson versus Yoan Moncada. We have a pretty good idea of what Donaldson brings when healthy, but of course that is the kicker. Can he play 140 games? Moncada had a breakout season in 2019 with a .915 OPS, but struggled mightily last season, possibly due to the lingering effects of contracting coronavirus prior to the season. I'd give the edge to Moncada, but this could easily go either way. The scorecard in the infield goes 3-2 for the Sox if you include Util, but this is a close race.
 
The outfield has some intriguing comparisons as well. Eloy Jimenez gets the edge in LF over whoever the Twins put out there. He has an all-star level bat but by all accounts should probably be a DH. Max Kepler struggled a bit in 2020 but should be able to out-produce Adam Eaton. At CF we get to compare two former #1 overall prospects in baseball. Luis Robert was on a tear to start 2020 but struggled the second half. Byron Buxton has two years in a row with a .800+ OPS, but continues to have difficulty staying on the field. Robert probably gets the edge here until Buxton proves he can stay on the field, but Robert does need to show that he can make adjustments to what the league did to him in the second half. Jake Cave is better than anything the White Sox currently have for a fourth outfielder. Let's call the OF a push leaning the Twins' way.
 
What else is left to discuss? Don't worry, I didn't forget the Twins' biggest advantage, which is at DH. The Twins do have a significant advantage with Nelson Cruz over whoever the Sox put at DH, at least until Father Time finally catches up to Cruz. The Twins have a solid backup who will need AB, in Brent Rooker, that they can use to spell Cruz and keep him fresh. The last debate comes with team defense. This is where the Simmons signing really makes a difference. In looking at several metrics on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, the White Sox had the edge in 2019, although the Twins were closer than you think. As a composite, it appears as though both teams were in the top 10 in MLB with the Sox being a few spots ahead of the Twins. The Twins have definitely closed that gap and possible passed up the Sox.
 
The fact that 6 players given All-Star nods for the White Sox in the ESPN article (Giolito, Hendriks, Grandal, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert), tends to make one feel they are way ahead of the Twins. One could argue that the Twins have a near comparable player to each one of those and greater team depth. I completely understand where the national pundits are coming from, but I think the race will be neck and neck all season. If the Twins get 140 games out of Donaldson, Sano and Buxton I feel like they win the AL Central, possibly quite comfortably. Clearly the issue will be if that is possible. We will all find out in October.

#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss)
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Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners.
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#7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State)
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Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career.
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#6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS)
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The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed.
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#5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade)
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The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool.
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#4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS)
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Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career.
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#3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS)
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The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day.
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#2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington)
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This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher.
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#1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State)
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I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content.
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I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!

The day the Padres officially announced their status as contenders by officially landing Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, the Twins countered with their own power move for, *squints at notes*, Hansel Robles. Jokes aside, Twins fans should be encouraged that an initial move has been made to deepen a bullpen losing several key 2020 cornerstones. What should we make of Robles, his stuff, his profile, and his fit?
 
Robles had a dire 2020 that should be largely thrown out as his 317 recorded pitches amounted to less than one third of any of his other five MLB seasons besides his debut year.
 
Robles is a mostly 3 pitch righty, with a hard fastball with some decent ride that sits 95-97mph. Robles fastball was his undoing in 2020, with opposing hitters lighting it up to the tune of a .667 SLG, with a bloated BaBIP that should normalize with a 900ish pitch sample in 2021.
 
Robles' other two pitches are likely what the Twins hope to capitalize on. He throws a changeup around 35% of the time (often to lefties) and a slider around 12% of the time, mostly to righties. While the Twins are becoming known as a slider loving organization, it's Robles’ changeup which has been his most effective pitch, holding opposing hitters to a wRC+ of 11 on the pitch in 2019, by far his best year, and 86 in a very poor 2020. Expect the Twins to tinker with his pitch mix significantly, as they have with other bullpen additions in recent years.
 
While Robles isn’t someone to write to your momma about, he’s not a scrapheap guy either. He’s a solid MLB pitcher with a 5 year track record. He essentially offered a 1st percentile season in 2020 and a 99th percentile season in 2019. In 2021 he should be good for 50ish innings (season length dependent) of work in low to mid leverage spots. While perhaps underwhelming given some of the other moves made around MLB yesterday, Robles pitch mix gives him the versatility to throw to just about anyone, and he offers solid upside in a bullpen severely lacking in depth. Over to you Wes Johnson.

We’re about to close the book on one of the craziest years in my lifetime. At 30 years old, I’ve hardly seen as much as the next person, but to say this calendar was filled with unprecedented events would be putting it lightly. Through it all though, we had baseball, and that was a distraction I know that I needed.
 
I remember many months ago now, waking up from a nap and looking at my phone. There was an alert from ESPN noting that Kobe Bryant had died in a helicopter accident. As I processed that, it didn’t hit me as to what the magnitude I’d feel from that event would be. Kobe was a cultural icon, more than just a basketball player, and despite being a Jordan guy he was an athlete I respected. From there, things got worse.
 
I’ll never forget sitting in Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers, Florida on March 13. The night before Rudy Gobert had tested positive for Coronavirus and the NBA effectively closed its doors. Covering the Twins Spring Training, things seemed ominous that morning as teams had already gone to distancing fans from players with roped off areas. By noon, Major League Baseball had put a halt on all operations. I hopped a flight and headed home.
 
Since that day, I have not returned to the office for my day job. We’ve dealt with closings of restaurants, public spaces, wearing masks, and plenty of other new versions of normal. Minneapolis experienced extreme racial unrest as the city turned into a warzone. There’s been political and social unrest, and countless other prominent figures that have now left us. For a brief four-month period though, there was baseball.
 
Leading up to the regular season we watched as the commissioner and ownership groups publicly tore down their players in an effort to squeeze profits through what would be a different year. There was uncertainty as to whether a season would be played at all and writing about the sport took a different turn. There was no minor league action to cover, and in months there typically would have been action, an ability to get creative was necessary.
 
As the dust settled though, we had the resumption of a game. Teams were diligent in their efforts to avoid Covid-19 outbreaks, the play on the field checked in at a high level, and the Los Angeles Dodgers won a World Series. Back in early summer, none of that seemed remotely possible.
 
More than any other year, I needed this out. I lost my grandpa to cancer in August, and the day following his funeral my 59-year-old father died in a car accident. I’ve spent more time in a cemetery over the past three months than I have during the entire duration of my life. I know that my challenges in 2020 are not alone, and that this year has been trying on so many. Financial distress, learning to cope with new working situations, understanding how to handle a certain level of social isolation, the totality of it all is not lost on anyone.
 
At the end of the day though, it was this, a child’s game, that provided a reprieve. We’ll have baseball again, the world will heal, and we can all be better and stronger people for what we have overcome. It will forever be a passion to break down the effectiveness of Jorge Polanco at shortstop, or whether Jose Berrios will round into a bonafide ace. Even if you take away that type of consumption though, the purity of a game, the crack of the bat, and the smell of fresh cut grass will always be an inviting escape.
 
Thank you for venturing on this journey with me, and I look forward to a more consistent level of normalcy in the months ahead. Below you’ll also find some of my favorite pieces from this season.
Women in Baseball Series
Kobe Was So Much More than Basketball
Byron Buxton's Next Great Act
Art Proving Unexpected Outlet to Fill the Baseball Void
What's Happening at the Alternate Site?

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

This offseason was always going to be incredibly weird. Coming off a pandemic shortened season, with no fans, and an unprecedented amount of uncertainty still ahead, how teams would tackle preparations for 2021 is a mystery. The Twins are good though, and despite a few holes they want to get better. What if they go all in?
 
This morning at ESPN Jeff Passan penned a piece regarding some rumblings he’s heard around the league. One of them was a note on the Minnesota Twins circling like a shark in the water. Executives had apparently suggested that Minnesota is “lurking” and appears “ready to strike with a big move as they did last season.” That big move alluded to was the signing of Josh Donaldson to a $100 million deal. How could something like that be replicated?
 
On the free agent market there’s only a couple of splashes that would fall into that category in and of themselves. Signing Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto would push dollar signs into that realm. Bauer is arguably the most natural fit of the group, and his next deal could be the most interesting. He’s previously said he’d like to by an assassin for hire and string together lucrative one-year deals. Agent Rachel Luba has commented that they’re open to whatever the best fit is. Bauer makes sense in Minnesota, but I’d imagine there’s other more desirable markets.
 
Looking at the latter two options, the Twins would be in a bit of a weird spot even though both are clear upgrades. Springer plays corner outfield, and despite the departure of Eddie Rosario, the assumption is that top prospect Alex Kirilloff will take over in short order. Mitch Garver had a down and injury plagued year in 2020, but Ryan Jeffers looked the part of a starting quality option. Realmuto would push both to the bench, although he could make the DH spot less of a pressing Nelson Cruz matter.
 
I don’t think anything else on the free agency front would qualify as Donaldson-esque. Maybe signing Didi Gregorious, Marcus Semien, or Andrelton Simmons to be the starting shortstop creates ripples, but none of those guys should break the bank. If it’s not going to happen on the open market, swinging a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well with.
 
Although the system isn’t as loaded as it once was, the Twins minor league depth right now is in a great place. Royce Lewis probably remains off the table, but he’s less untouchable than I assumed even a year ago. Beyond that, everyone should be under consideration. Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran headline the pitching while Trevor Larnach, Aaron Sabato, and Keoni Cavaco are the offensive gems.
 
Without reading too much into what Passan has reported, there’s certainly a feeling of a silent killer right now. Chicago is looking to load up as the White Sox have their most competitive team in years. The Twins are the clear cream of the crop right now though and remaining there will take legitimate additions. After hearing about payroll decreases and scaled back financial efforts after decreased revenues in 2020, there should have been legitimate fear regarding Minnesota’s opportunity to capitalize.
 
If this is just the beginning of smoke, and we don’t have fire for some time, the hope should be that this is an inkling of the Twins keeping their foot on the gas. The front office and development staff have pushed a largely home-grown roster to the point of opportunity. The window is wide open and continuing to jump through it as long as they can, should be the goal. One Postseason win, or a series victory is where it starts, but this organization has all the makings of a legitimate contender.
 
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This will be my 6th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.
 
The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.
 
Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
 
Now, let’s get to it!
 
15. Akil Baddoo OF
 
Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.
 
14. Gilberto Celestino OF
 
Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.
 
13. Matt Wallner OF
 
The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.
12. Matt Canterino RHP
 
On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.
 
11. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.
 
10. Aaron Sabato 1B
 
I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.
 
9. Keoni Cavaco SS
 
Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.
 
8. Brent Rooker OF/1B
 
If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.
 
7. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.
 
6. Ryan Jeffers C
 
Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.
 
5. Jhoan Duran RHP
 
There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.
 
4. Trevor Larnach OF
 
For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.
 
3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
 
Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.
 
2. Royce Lewis SS
 
Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.
 
1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B
 
Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.
 
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MLB and the MLBPA agreed yesterday to accommodations for a shortened 2020 major league schedule. Many things are to be determined, especially since there is no firm date for the season to begin. I choose to be optimistic that there will be baseball this summer, perhaps without crowds in the stands. One thing agreed to unofficially was an expanded roster. The number that has been published is 29. I am going with that information and will now name the 29 players I expect will be on the roster for Opening Day 2020 whenever that happens.
 
Pitchers--(15) Berríos, Maeda, Odorizzi, Bailey, Chacín, Dobnak, Wisler, May, Clippard, Stashak, Duffey, Romo, Littell, Thielbar, Rogers
 
Catchers--(3) Garver,Avila, Astudillo
 
Infielders--(6) Sanó, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, Adrianza, Gonzalez
 
Outfielders--(4) Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave
 
Designated Hitter--(1) Cruz
 
This would take the current roster, subtract Rich Hill and add both Thielbar and Chacín. My reasoning for this roster includes that the schedule will probably have doubleheaders and perhaps will fill some off days with games, meaning that a larger pitching staff in today's environment would be essential. I have included both Dobnak and Chacín, who have been competing for a starting spot and assume that either the Twins will go with a six-man rotation or that one of Dobnak or Chacín will be a "long man" in the bullpen. I assumed that if the staff were expanded by three that the Twins would add a lefty, even though specialists will be minimized by the three-batter rule. Having an occasional different look could be helpful.
 
The fight for the 13th position player is over--they both win. I had thought Astudillo's ability to make contact and play many positions would win out over Cave's general competency, but with an additional position player spot available, both make the team.
 
As for the pitching staff, it is murkier. First of all, Rich Hill has stated he could be ready to pitch in June. Suddenly, he might miss only a couple weeks or perhaps no time at all. Michael Pineda has two-thirds of his sixty game suspension to serve. I would expect that his suspension is prorated, much as service time will be prorated. If the season is 100 games, his suspension would be 25 games. There is nothing official, but that is what I will go with. I am assuming that Hill won't quite be ready when the season starts and that Pineda will have at least three weeks of suspension to serve.
 
I think the Twins have seen enough of Chacín to want to see a bit more. He may not survive the return of Pineda and debut of Hill, but I don't think the Twins want to give up on him quite yet. Dobnak has pitched the best in exhibition games of those competing for a spot and he was outstanding last year in his brief time with the Twins. Wisler and Stashak both make the bullpen and there still is room for a lefty. I picked Thielbar over the others--Barnes, Clay and Coulumbe all had some moments, but I think Thielbar has pitched better. Hardy just had TJ surgery so he is out for 2020.
 
I think a 29-man roster demonstrates the depth that the Twins possess. In other years, all of the players mentioned would easily make the Opening Day roster and more would have a chance. I have not added Devin Smeltzer to the 29, but believe he could be an option to pitch several doubleheader games if that happens. I don't really see him as a reliever and he has an option to use, so if he were called on to pitch as a long man, he could be shuttled to Rochester this year.

Like many diehard fans, it is easy to get immersed in the potential of young prospects. It can be more intoxicating when those prospects are taken first overall in the draft. Royce Lewis is a fantastic prospect with the potential to be one of the best players in the game. The speed, the power, the makeup; it is easy to see why he is viewed as one of the top prospects in the game. However, I have always thought that Royce Lewis is the second-best prospect in the Twins system.
 
Recently, Keith Law had Alex Kirilloff as the Minnesota Twins top prospect and the #9 prospect in all of baseball. I have always been of this opinion as well and it is nice to have someone with as much notoriety as Law agree with me on this aspect. It means even more coming from Law, who tends to value players who play premium positions and are plus athletes over other prospects. Royce Lewis fits that mold to a tee, so the fact that Law has Kirilloff as a top ten prospect tells me how much be believes in his hit tool.
 
The hit tool is the crux of the entire argument of Kirilloff over Lewis. In 2018, Kirilloff hit .333 in in Cedar Rapids with a .391 OBP and a .601 slugging percentage. Once he was promoted to Fort Myers, his average was .362 with a .393 OBP and a .550 slugging. He was 20 years old and hit 20 homers. The fact that Kirilloff had that high of a slugging percentage in the pitcher friendly Florida State League is remarkable. Everyone was expecting Kirilloff to continue to rake in 2019.
 
However, Kirilloff dealt with a wrist injury that sidelined him for a good portion of the first half of the season and zapped his power when he could play. He hit .283 with a .343 OBP and a .413 slugging, which is still decent considering his age in Double-A. However, it is what Kirilloff did in the second half of the season, specifically the playoffs, that leads me to believe it was mostly the injury to blame for the lack of power. Kirilloff had a huge power spike in the second half and finished the year hitting 4 homers in 5 playoff games. Wrist injuries are a killer for hitters, especially for hitters who generate power via leverage and twitch rather than brute strength. Kirilloff would be described as the former, so it would make sense that his power would return as he gets further removed from the injury.
 
While Kirilloff will most likely have above average to plus power as a big leaguer, it is his overall hit tool that will be his calling card. Kirilloff has a sweet swing and has fantastic hand-eye coordination. He also does not strike out at rates that are becoming more common place for hitters selling out for power. While Kirilloff’s walk rates are not high, he does take his fair share of walks which will allow him to continue to get to his power and hit tools by not being a free swinger. It is not out of the question that Kirilloff ends up a .310/.370/.500 type of guy with a plenty of doubles and 25-30 homers. That is a player you want, regardless of the position he plays.
 
This leads us to the main argument of Lewis over Kirilloff as the top prospect, which is positional value. Kirilloff is a guy who ends up as an average right fielder under the best projections. He is an average athlete (compared to other major league baseball players, not people who sit on their couch and write Twins blogs where he would be considered an amazing athlete) with an average to slightly above average arm. He has also spent a fair amount of time at first base already, which is a possibility for Kirilloff as he gets older and fills out more. If Kirilloff ends up a first basemen, the 25-30 homerun power will be something that will deflate his value as a prospect. Lewis on the other hand will either end up a shortstop or, worst case, a premium defender in CF. As we have seen with players like Buxton, getting a premium defender at a premium position has quite a bit of value even if the hitter is average.
 
This is where you must compare the two players and decide. In my opinion, Kirilloff is a player that has a floor as a hitter that is higher than the ceiling of Lewis as a hitter. On his current trajectory, Kirilloff is a guy who will compete for some batting titles, draw some walks, and hit for plenty of extra bases, even if only 20-30 go over the fence. That is a tremendously valuable player at either first or a corner outfield spot. However, Kirilloff is still growing into his body and could grow into some more power as he gets older. Lewis has a higher overall ceiling when you include the defense, but his floor with the bat is not ideal at this point. Lewis is still young for his competition, and I still believe he will be a great player, but the fact that Lewis hit so poorly in Fort Myers and Pensacola and showed very little plate discipline does concern me.
 
Ultimately, I do not believe you can go wrong choosing one of these two guys as your Twins top prospect. The Twins are lucky to have both guys in their system and both could make some noise in the majors within the next year or so. That being said, if I had to choose one prospect to keep, Kirilloff is my guy all the way.

Over the past few seasons there have been more than a few guys signed that have drawn a groan from Twins Territory. What the initial analysis doesn’t take into account is that the Twins have generated a juggernaut in terms of infrastructure, and it's paid dividends in recent seasons. This time around, it’s Matt Wisler looking to generate a return.
 
Early on this winter the front office tabbed former Top 100 prospect Matt Wisler as being worthy of a major league deal. He combined to throw just over 50 innings in the majors last season, and the results generated a 5.61 ERA. Giving up nearly two homers per nine innings, the counting stats were hardly enticing. But then you take a look under the hood.
 
Wisler posted a 4.23 FIP and an even better 3.83 xFIP. His 14.9% whiff rate and 37% chase rate were career highs, and his 11.0 K/9 wasn’t far off from doubling his career averages. The longball has been an issue for a while, but it’s certainly plausible to see what the Twins like.
 
A season ago Wisler had his slider averaging nearly 84 mph (you guessed it, a career high) while flipping it a whopping 70% of the time. He’s abandoned the sinker, went to a four-seam, and became a two-pitch pitcher. In targeting Sergio Romo again for 2020, as well as bringing in Jhoulys Chacin, it seems pitching coach Wes Johnson is looking to tinker with slider-dominant arms.
 
Minnesota is not some sort of a magic cure for the average pitcher, but the infrastructure now in place has produced. Ryne Harper was a 30-year-old rookie when he put up a 3.81 ERA a year ago, and he may be on the outside looking in because of the overall strength shown by the current relief corps. Matt Magill turned sporadic Show time into two consistent years of big-league run. Although he fizzled down the stretch for the Twins, Magill is now in line to be the Seattle Mariners closer after a strong finish.
 
Things don’t always work out the way you plan. Anibal Sanchez was jettisoned after Lance Lynn was signed, and he went on to have a career year with the Atlanta Braves in 2018. Nick Anderson was never given a shot internally and now is one of the best relievers in baseball. The process being in place does not guarantee a no-fault result. What is true though, is that Minnesota can now be seen as a destination for arms to thrive.
 
Maybe Matt Wisler will be a slider-fastball pitcher that can’t keep the pill in the yard and the next step won’t be taken. In a bullpen that should be expected to be among the better units in baseball though, it’s worth finding out if he can’t be a dominant middle relief option and venture down that path under the tutelage of Johnson.
 
We’ve reached the point that assessment of acquisitions shouldn’t be based around what a player was before coming to the Twins organization, but instead what they will become after getting here.
 
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Not all developmental paths are the same, and not all prospects move on a linear path to the major leagues. After being signed as a teenager and briefly generating buzz throughout the system things came to a halt in 2015. Now ready to kick down the door at the major league level, he may be the biggest breakout candidate in 2020.
 
If you don’t know the story, it’s one of stunted development. Tommy John surgery followed by a crazy case of mononucleosis robbed Thorpe of two full seasons. After pitching on August 31, 2014, he was not back in a professional game until May 19, 2017. A lot of growth and maturation took place during that stretch, and since returning to the mound he’s done nothing but impress.
 
His first year back, Thorpe posted a 2.93 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 83 innings. He followed that up with a 3.54 ERA and 10.9 K/9 at Double and Triple-A during the 2018 campaign. Last year he saw the K/9 jump to a career high 11.1 at Triple-A Rochester, and with the 2.3 BB/9 representing a career low, it was time for big league exposure.
 
Although there were some tough outings in 2019, and the final ERA sat at 6.18 through 27.2 IP, it’s what the rest of the results tell us that remains enticing. Thorpe posted a strong 3.47 FIP and kept up his strikeout rate in the bigs tallying 10.1 K/9. Averaging 91.5 mph on his fastball, this isn’t just a traditional soft tossing lefty with an ability to spin it. He’s predominantly a fastball/slider guy but worked in both a changeup and curveball.
 
With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the 26-man roster as the 5th pitcher. Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, and Devin Smeltzer will all be in the mix, but I’d imagine their early Triple-A results will line up who gets what opportunity and when. For Thorpe, he has a very strong chance to separate himself from the pack.
 
A former Top-100 prospect, Thorpe’s track record is one that presents a very comforting floor. The ceiling of an ace isn’t there but a guy that can miss bats 12% of the time, expand the zone one-third of the time, and do a good job of limiting hard contact is something any rotation would plug right in the middle. If he’s able to work his way into an opportunity of extended run expecting something like the career results of Michael Pineda, and pop up stretches of Jake Odorizzi, is more than a doable ask.
 
The Twins traded away Brusdar Graterol in part because of their long-term view regarding where his innings would come from. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are the pitchers represented on the prospect lists, and both remain starting candidates. Thorpe is the forgotten man in all of this though, and if the steps forward continue with the developmental infrastructure Minnesota has set up, he is primed to make the earliest impact.
 
I won’t put a timeline on where, when, or how long the opportunity will present itself, but when the Southpaw from Down Under dazzles don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
 
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The last stab I took at this was on January 20th. There haven’t been many moves since then, but the ones that have been made are absolutely monumental. While I felt good about where that version of the Twins was, it’s undeniable they are much better off now. Putting out one final projection prior to Spring Training getting underway, here’s where I see things as of today.
 
Projection 1.0
 
Catchers (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila
 
No change here. These two are locked in and ready to go. Garver will need to stave off some expected regression, but he’ll also be dealing with an expanded workload. If Willians Astudillo pushes his was onto the roster, I don’t see the playing time coming behind the plate.
 
Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson. Ehire Adrianza
 
Another position group with no change. Donaldson punctuated the offseason when Minnesota signed him to the 4th biggest deal handed out this winter. This group will need to take a step forwards defensively, and I’m confident that they should be able to.
 
Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave
 
More status quo here. The final position spot comes down to Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for me, and I don’t see the utility of Astudillo being a net positive. He’s below average everywhere, while Cave can handle the bat and play all three outfield positions. The infield is more stable this season, and although Marwin should spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot, he’s the utility guy you feel comfortable about moving around.
 
Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz
 
Yes, still here to hit bombas.
 
Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin
 
This is the group that has seen the most change. Chacin was signed to a minor league deal, and while 2019 was awful, he was great in 2018. If the Twins see signs of that at all during the spring, they’ll have picked up a very solid 5th starter. I like the long-term ability of Lewis Thorpe, and both Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer have looked strong, but they all have options remaining. Now adding a bonafide stud in Kenta Maeda, this is a group that should be plenty capable of racing out to a second straight division title.
 
Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers. Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak
 
This group stays the same as I had it in round one, but that was prior to Minnesota designating Brusdar Graterol a reliever. He absolutely would have been on the roster, but instead was used to swing the deal for Maeda. Coming off a 2019 that saw this group finish as the third best unit in baseball, they’ve added some very quality pieces to make another run at the top.
 
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In a bizarre and frustrating twist, the Red Sox are staunchly refusing to get anything less than Graterol (and more) from the Twins. It just ain’t gonna work with Boston, Falvine.
 
Kenta Maeda, with his underrated toolbox, would look great in Minnesota. Since his rookie season in 2016, Maeda ranks second to Max Scherzer among all pitchers with at least 1,000 at-bats against right-handed hitters (.199). In a right-handed heavy league and division, his prowess is welcomed with open arms.
 
A large pull to Madison Bumgarner was his ability to pitch at an extremely high level in October. On a much lesser but comparably impressive scale, Maeda has a 3.31 ERA in 24 postseason games. Most of his appearances came out of the bullpen, but I foresee Maeda pitching the first four or five innings against the Yankees or Astros this October.
 
Brusdar Graterol is an immense talent. His ability and upside have been tarnished in recent days by both the industry and Twins fans convincing themselves that he really isn’t that great. He is special. I wasn’t against this Graterol-for-Maeda swap, but I don’t want to see Brusdar go. Keep him as an overpowering gun in the 2020 bullpen if you can. He is an asset on and off the field for Minnesota.
 
The Twins farm system is so incredibly deep with MLB-ready arms and bats. I am of the belief that they could put together a package for the Dodgers to acquire Maeda. I think he’s going to be traded regardless, so why not cut out the Red Sox, shift the focus away from Graterol, and group two or three top 20 prospects for Maeda?
 
The Dodgers can work separately for Mookie Betts and David Price, and the Twins can exit this circus with Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox. Stash Graterol in an already great bullpen, pencil in Maeda as your number three starter, and let’s go to battle starting March 26th in Oakland.
 
Would the Dodgers push to grab Graterol for their own World Series caliber roster? Probably. Say no. Flex your muscles of depth in the farm system and work a little magic to keep arguably your best pitching prospect while obtaining Maeda, who makes this Twins team that much better. This has been a wild ride, but the Twins can come out on top, and in a big way.
 
What do you think? Comment below!

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just put an absolute bow on the 2020 Minnesota Twins offseason. After acquiring Josh Donaldson in January, the refrain was whether or not he could pitch. Now nabbing Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the answer is yes he can.
 
Across Twins Territory there should be some absolute shock with this one. Not only was the impact-pitching arm acquired, but it absolutely cost an impact prospect. Brusdar Graterol showed up on the Major League scene last summer and brandished his triple-digit fastball. Showing off the bazooka arm, it was hard not to dream on him as a starting prospect.
 
It was apparent that there have been concerns about what Graterol profiles at in the bigs however. He’s never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, and he never worked exclusively as a starter in 2019. The talk going into the year was that Minnesota would unleash him in the pen, and the feeling was he had not yet developed the necessary secondary stuff to make it multiple times through the order.
 
Any time you see a big name prospect like this moved, it’s going to be hard to sift through the feelings. The message from Minnesota here is clear however. The window is open and the front office has kicked down the door. They see Graterol as a reliever long term, and conversely viewed him as the third best option in the up and coming trio including Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran.
 
In Maeda the Twins get their coveted impact arm. He’s soon-to-be 32-years-old and is not a free agent until 2024. He will be paid just $3.125 million per year the rest of his deal, and he’s a strikeout threat pumping double-digits per nine innings. I'm not sure Minnesota viewed the tradeoff like this when the offseason started, but they passed on signing a 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner (with nearly identical numbers) to a five-year deal paying $17 million per season. In comparison, their decision looks pretty good.
 

 
Although Maeda’s ERA’s haven’t always been glowing, he’s posted a FIP north of 4.00 just once in his four year MLB career. Walks have crept up in recent years, but he generally does a good job avoiding danger. Slotting in behind both Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, there’s zero reason why he can’t elevate and assume an even large role in the rotation.
 
This move pushes Minnesota’s payroll up above $140 million landing somewhere around $145 million. That’s a nice expansion on the previous record of $128.4 million in 2018, and gives them plenty of flexibility now and in the future.
Buckle up Twins fans; we’ve got a contender here.
 
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I’m going to dive into blogging here and see where it goes. Sometimes, as a writer, the hardest thing is to come up with an idea that’s worth writing about and that people will actually be interested to read. I expect that to be my struggle, but I’ve got what I think will be an interesting series to kick things off, and maybe that will be the extent of my contributions. Time will tell.
 
In any case, nobody wants to read about me. You want to see what information you can glean about our Twins. Given the rampant discussions on Twitter and on various blogs regarding the state of the Twins’ pitching staff, I thought it would be interesting to do a series on the numbers underlying the starters currently projected to be in the mix for the Twins.
 
While I’m sure others will make starts this season, here are the guys I’m hoping to work my way through for this series:
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Michael Pineda
Rich Hill
Homer Bailey
Devin Smeltzer
Lewis Thorpe
Randy Dobnak
 
By way of framing the series, I think there are pretty clearly three different groups. The known (but in some cases misunderstood) quantities, the new veterans, and the prospects.
 
When the season starts, we know Pineda and Hill will not be in the rotation, and we know Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey will be (barring injury, of course). That being the case, I decided to start off by diving into the three prospects (a term I’m using loosely, given the MLB experience they got last year), starting with Dobnak.
 
A common question we hear, read, and think to ourselves as we are trying to fall asleep: “Can Randy Dobnak be a key piece of a successful playoff run?” I can cut to the chase and just say the answer is yes, but if you want to know why, go ahead and keep reading the words.
 
Let’s start by looking at Dobnak’s surface-level stats:
28.1 IP – lots and lots of caveats about the small sample
7.31 K/9 – not inspiring, but we will need to take a look at his swinging strike rates
1.59 BB/9 – elite, but let’s see how often he’s really in the strike zone
1.59 ERA – wow, but a lot of this depends on the above
2.90 FIP – also wow
3.77 xFIP – still wow, but we will need to look into his batted ball tendencies because 0.32 HR/9 is the reason for the jump from his FIP to his xFIP.

Okay, so we have a few things to dive into:
Swinging Strike Rates, which are generally highly correlated to K/9
Zone Percentage, which is highly correlated to BB/9
Batted Ball Tendencies, which are going to be a bit more difficult to use to extrapolate, given the small sample.

Getting hitters to swing and miss, and throwing strikes are generally skills the pitcher possesses (or does not), while the results – K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc. Fluctuate due to randomness, umpire tendencies, opponents’ skill, etc. (esp in small samples).
 
Here’s what we see for Dobnak on those plate discipline skills:
43.8% of his pitches were in the strike zone
12.9% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike

Putting those numbers into context, 61 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season, so the median pitcher would be the one whose result was 31st among qualified starters. For swinging strike, it turns out that is a couple of familiar names: Jose Berrios and Homer Bailey at 10.8 percent. Looking at zone percentage, there is a three way tie among Jeff Smardzija, Mike Soroka, and Bailey again at 42.6 percent (a bit of a preview of the Bailey post. Hmm). By now you’ve surely noticed that Dobnak’s numbers were markedly above the median.
 
In fact, his zone percentage of 43.8% would have tied him with Zach Eflin for 20th among all qualified starting pitchers, just a tick below Noah Syndergaard at 43.9 percent. His swinging strike rate of 12.9% puts him in a three way tie with Charlie Morton and Clayton Kershaw, who were tied for 14th among qualified starters. Obviously good company.
 
It gets better. If you look at qualified starters who posted at least a 12.9% swinging strike rate combined with a 43.9% zone percentage – that rare combination of being in the zone and missing bats – here is the list you get for 2019:
Gerrit Cole – 16.8%/45.2%
Max Scherzer – 16.4%/45.6%
Justin Verlander – 16.1%/45.2%
Lucas Giolito – 15%/47.2%
Yu Darvish – 13.4%/44.5%
Charlie Morton – 12.9%/45.1%

Just missed:
Clayton Kershaw
German Marquez
Lance Lynn
Noah Syndergaard
Trevor Bauer
Walker Buehler

Does this mean Dobnak is in the company of these elite aces? Of course not. What it does suggest, though, is that his success was not a fluke. He displayed an elite combination of skills in missing bats (which generates strikeouts) and living in the strike zone (which prevents walks). This suggests that he has considerable upside. He also threw essentially a major league innings load last year – compiling more than 160 innings across 4 levels from High A to the majors. This suggests he’s capable of providing the Twins with volume as well as quality, something that is not always the case for prospect pitchers.
 
There are reasons to be worried, though. The difference between Dobnak’s FIP and his xFIP was driven by an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/FB rate. The lowest HR/FB rate among qualified starters was 9.3%, and given Dobnak’s 42.5% hard hit rate, it’s safe to assume more of those fly balls will reach the seats going forward. That said, if he regresses to the mean in HR/9 and posts 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, that’s obviously a serviceable starting pitcher. And, given that FIP and xFIP were driven by his 7.31 K/9, if those swinging strikes turn that into a 9.00+ K/9, he has considerable upside to deliver a lower ERA.

2020 Offseason Plan
 
My basic theories/assumptions:
A. Be realistic. If your plan assumes Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Rendon, Chapman, or Bumgarner will sign here, I think you are doing this exercise wrong.
B. Teams are likely to hang onto those solid #2/3 starters (Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, etc) in the offseason unless you overpay or they are trying to dump salary.
C. Keep our young hitting core intact.
D. Our top prospects are not quite ready.
E. Supplement existing team with the best starter, reliever, and position player we can realistically get.
F. Trade for an ace and a really good reliever at the deadline, unless 2020 is not our year or Berrios takes a big leap.
G. The FO is willing to spend up to $160 Million in salary to field a really nice team
 
NEW FACES:
1. trade for Trevor Bauer (something like Balazovic + Javier + Rijo/Vallimont)
- I see Bauer as the best gettable starter.
- his trade value is hurt by a bunch of factors but it's hard to say by how much. this could obviously backfire.
* backup plan: trade Rijo for Arrieta + salary relief
2. sign Didi Gregorius (1 year, $18 + player option)
- he'll have a strange market, and he'll want to be in the middle of a good lineup to build value so the Twins are a perfect fit for him. 2-3 years works also with Marwin gone after 2020, but I don't think he wants that.
- I'm assuming the Yankees are saving money and won't offer a QO
3. sign Dellin Betances (2 years/$22 + team option/buyout)
- I'm OK with the slight overpay, hard to say how much he'll get coming off a bunch of injuries.
 
COMING BACK:
1. pick up Nelson Cruz' option ($12)
- duh, done
2. re-sign Sergio Romo (2 years, $8)
- solid vet back there
3. re-sign Michael Pineda (2 years/$30 + team option)
- mike was our best pitcher the second half of 2019
4. re-sign Jake Odorizzi (3 years/$51)
- this will end up being a slight waste of money but needs to happen anyway
5. re-sign Kyle Gibson (1 year/$8 + team option)
- 3.62 ERA in 2018/career 4.29 FIP/nasty illness in 2019. why does everybody want to dump the Twins lifer? I think he will be a well-above-average #4/5 starter and a dominant reliever in the postseason.
6. Sign/extend Mitch Garver. (5 years/$50)
- yes I know he is about to turn 29
 
POSITION SWITCHES:
move Sano to 1B
move Polanco to 3B
 
OPENING DAY PAYROLL is around $158 million, I guessed on the arb numbers.
 
LINEUP:
1. RF Kepler ($7)
2. 3B Polanco ($4)
3. DH Cruz ($12)
4. 1B Sano ($6)
5. SS Gregorius ($18)
6. LF Rosario ($7)
7. C Garver ($2)
8. CF Buxton ($3)
9. 2B Arraez ($0.5)
Gonzalez ($9)
Astudillo ($0.5)
Wade ($0.5)
Adrianza ($3)
Lineup recap: replace Cron in the lineup with Gregorius, while improving the defense a bit and making Astudillo just a catcher.
 
STARTERS:
Bauer ($16.5)
Odorizzi ($17)
Berrios ($6)
Pineda ($15 adjusted to $12)
Gibson ($8)
 
BULLPEN:
Rogers ($5)
Betances ($11)
Romo ($4)
Duffey ($1.5)
Graterol ($0.5)
May ($3)
Littell ($0.5)
Smeltzer ($0.5)
 
POSTSEASON STAFF (projected):
1. Ace via midseason trade
2. Bauer
3. Pineda
4. Odorizzi
Berrios (until he gets past late-season faltering, he's in the pen in the postseason)
Betances
Reliever via midseason trade
Rogers
Duffey
Gibson
Romo
Graterol
 
THE DUMPED:
1. decline CJ Cron
- too much meh
4. decline Sam Dyson
- and send the Giants a nice gift basket full of sharp, dangerous objects
3. decline Martin Perez
- offer him a minor league deal
4. other FA position players (Castro, Schoop)
5. trade Jake Cave for a minor leaguer with options
 
REMOVE(D) From 40-Man:
Cave
Castro
Schoop
Cron
Torreyes
Lamarre
Miller
Dyson (possible 2 year Pineda-esque rehab deal)
Perez (offer minor-league deal)
Harper (offer minor-league deal)
Stewart (offer minor-league deal)
Hildenberger (offer minor-league deal)
Poppen (offer minor-league deal)
 
PROTECT from Rule 5:
Raley
Duran
Jax
Blankenhorn
Colina
** T. Wells
 
also still on the 40:
Thorpe, Shashak, Dobnak, Gordon, Alcala, Gonsalves, Romero
** Wells can be transferred to the 60-day DL after the season starts, which is why I protected him.
 
PITFALLS:
1. only 2 catchers to open the 40-man is not ideal, but should attract good minor league FAs.
2. not a ton of room to add payroll at the deadline unless attendance kicks ass the first half.
3. not many backup position players who are close to major league ready. Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, and a 3rd catcher (Rortvedt/Jeffers/Telis/other minor league FA) better be ready to play.

2020 Offseason Plan
 
My basic theories/assumptions:
A. Be realistic. If your plan assumes Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Rendon, Chapman, or Bumgarner will sign here, I think you are doing this exercise wrong.
B. Teams are likely to hang onto those solid #2/3 starters (Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, etc) in the offseason unless you overpay or they are trying to dump salary.
C. Keep our young hitting core intact.
D. Our top prospects are not quite ready.
E. Supplement existing team with the best starter, reliever, and position player we can realistically get.
F. Trade for an ace and a really good reliever at the deadline, unless 2020 is not our year or Berrios takes a big leap.
G. The FO is willing to spend up to $160 Million in salary to field a really nice team
 
NEW FACES:
1. trade for Trevor Bauer (something like Balazovic + Javier + Rijo/Vallimont)
- I see Bauer as the best gettable starter.
- his trade value is hurt by a bunch of factors but it's hard to say by how much. this could obviously backfire.
* backup plan: trade Rijo for Arrieta + salary relief
2. sign Didi Gregorius (1 year, $18 + player option)
- he'll have a strange market, and he'll want to be in the middle of a good lineup to build value so the Twins are a perfect fit for him. 2-3 years works also with Marwin gone after 2020, but I don't think he wants that.
- I'm assuming the Yankees are saving money and won't offer a QO
3. sign Dellin Betances (2 years/$22 + team option/buyout)
- I'm OK with the slight overpay, hard to say how much he'll get coming off a bunch of injuries.
 
COMING BACK:
1. pick up Nelson Cruz' option ($12)
- duh, done
2. re-sign Sergio Romo (2 years, $8)
- solid vet back there
3. re-sign Michael Pineda (2 years/$30 + team option)
- mike was our best pitcher the second half of 2019
4. re-sign Jake Odorizzi (3 years/$51)
- this will end up being a slight waste of money but needs to happen anyway
5. re-sign Kyle Gibson (1 year/$8 + team option)
- 3.62 ERA in 2018/career 4.29 FIP/nasty illness in 2019. why does everybody want to dump the Twins lifer? I think he will be a well-above-average #4/5 starter and a dominant reliever in the postseason.
6. Sign/extend Mitch Garver. (5 years/$50)
- yes I know he is about to turn 29
 
POSITION SWITCHES:
move Sano to 1B
move Polanco to 3B
 
OPENING DAY PAYROLL is around $158 million, I guessed on the arb numbers.
 
LINEUP:
1. RF Kepler ($7)
2. 3B Polanco ($4)
3. DH Cruz ($12)
4. 1B Sano ($6)
5. SS Gregorius ($18)
6. LF Rosario ($7)
7. C Garver ($2)
8. CF Buxton ($3)
9. 2B Arraez ($0.5)
Gonzalez ($9)
Astudillo ($0.5)
Wade ($0.5)
Adrianza ($3)
Lineup recap: replace Cron in the lineup with Gregorius, while improving the defense a bit and making Astudillo just a catcher.
 
STARTERS:
Bauer ($16.5)
Odorizzi ($17)
Berrios ($6)
Pineda ($15 adjusted to $12)
Gibson ($8)
 
BULLPEN:
Rogers ($5)
Betances ($11)
Romo ($4)
Duffey ($1.5)
Graterol ($0.5)
May ($3)
Littell ($0.5)
Smeltzer ($0.5)
 
POSTSEASON STAFF (projected):
1. Ace via midseason trade
2. Bauer
3. Pineda
4. Odorizzi
Berrios (until he gets past late-season faltering, he's in the pen in the postseason)
Betances
Reliever via midseason trade
Rogers
Duffey
Gibson
Romo
Graterol
 
THE DUMPED:
1. decline CJ Cron
- too much meh
4. decline Sam Dyson
- and send the Giants a nice gift basket full of sharp, dangerous objects
3. decline Martin Perez
- offer him a minor league deal
4. other FA position players (Castro, Schoop)
5. trade Jake Cave for a minor leaguer with options
 
REMOVE(D) From 40-Man:
Cave
Castro
Schoop
Cron
Torreyes
Lamarre
Miller
Dyson (possible 2 year Pineda-esque rehab deal)
Perez (offer minor-league deal)
Harper (offer minor-league deal)
Stewart (offer minor-league deal)
Hildenberger (offer minor-league deal)
Poppen (offer minor-league deal)
 
PROTECT from Rule 5:
Raley
Duran
Jax
Blankenhorn
Colina
** T. Wells
 
also still on the 40:
Thorpe, Shashak, Dobnak, Gordon, Alcala, Gonsalves, Romero
** Wells can be transferred to the 60-day DL after the season starts, which is why I protected him.
 
PITFALLS:
1. only 2 catchers to open the 40-man is not ideal, but should attract good minor league FAs.
2. not a ton of room to add payroll at the deadline unless attendance kicks ass the first half.
3. not many backup position players who are close to major league ready. Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, and a 3rd catcher (Rortvedt/Jeffers/Telis/other minor league FA) better be ready to play.

Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
 
There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
 
So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
 
I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
 
Candidates:
Griffin Jax (protect)
Luke Raley (protect)
Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

It gets a bit more difficult from here.
Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
 
Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
 
They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
 
There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
 
If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
 
Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
 
Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
 
That brings payroll up to 143.
 
My 26 man roster is now as follows:
C - Garver
1B - Cron
2B - Arraez or Gordon
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
CF - Buxton
RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
DH - Cruz
 
SP
Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
 
RP
Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
 
Bench
Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
 
I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
 
So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.

2019 has been an exhilarating ride. This is easily the best Twins team since 2010(and arguably, since 2006). While success is by no means assured this year, suffice it to say that 2019 has brought us to the cusp of serious playoff contention. While recent erratic play, particularly in the rotation and in the field, has tempered our chances for advancement , most of us still feel pretty comfortable about seeing playoff games in Target Field this year. We have a whole month to go, but as of today, I believe our chances of making the playoffs are better than 50%.
 
With that said, my concerns are for the future. Is this success sustainable? Right now, I have my doubts, for several reasons:
 
1. In a way 2019 is a fluke in the AL Central. The Indians have been beset by horrific injuries: Kluber, Carrasco, Lindos, now Ramirez. They traded away Bauer, easily their #1 or 2 starter this year, and yet still have enough minor league pitching depth to take 3 of 4 from the Twins in Minnesota and are hanging in there despite 7 straight games against the NY teams. They lost Brantley to FA and yet they have managed to have one of the major's top offenses post All Star. Kudos to Francona and the Indians' player development staff for surviving such hits and still be a solid contender for the playoffs. Next year, with better health, this is still a formidable team!
 
2. The remainder of the AL Central is woeful, but this is not likely next year. The Sox, with some great young hitters(Roberts could be the best of them all), some solid holdovers(Abreu, Anderson, McCann), and an emerging rotation with a bonafide ace in Giolito, a rapidly improving Lopez, a solid veteran in Nova and two potential stars in Kopech and Cease, are bound to be more competitive next year. They are no longer pushovers and will be a contender at least for a WC in 2020. You heard it here first.
 
3. The Twins historic offense year is just not sustainable. Too many players are having career years. Is it likely this will reoccur next year? Sure, the Twins have rising stars in Buxton, Sano and Kepler, but who else do we consider future stars? Is Garver really this good? Is Polanco's first half as good as it's going to get. Nelson Cruz will be 40 next year, etc., etc. Yes, we will likely have a solid lineup next year, but hardly the overpowering one that showed up in 2019. This type of home run surge is just unsustainable. I would feel much better if we had more consistent hitting rather than an all or nothing attack. Arraez has been a great new addition, but he's already sliding a bit. Has the league started figuring him out? Are there any other minor leaguers who figure to have the same impact next year as Arraez has?
 
4. As most TD readers have noted, the Twins' rotation looks very shaky for 2020. Berrios is showing his true colors as a good but inconsistent starter. He is nowhere near an ace, which is why I and others pleaded with the FO to pull out all the stops to acquire a top starter at the trade deadline. Does anyone expect the Twins rotation to hold up to the Yankees or Astros' lineups in October? Next year is far shakier without Odorizzi and Pineda, arguably our two best starters now. Heaven help us if the FO decides not to re-sign both these guys. Gibson doesn't deserve an extension and the jury is still out on Perez. Has anyone stood out in the upper minors this year? The Ryan regime was a colossal failure in developing pitching and while Falvine hasn't been around long enough, their decision to sacrifice a #1 pitcher for Lewis was a real leap of faith to an organization with a lack of big-time pitching prospects. Sure we have some promising position-player prospects in the minors now but pitching wins championships - a fact proven over and over again. This organization's lack of success in developing either rotation stalwarts or lights-out stoppers must give even the most optimistic doubt they can do it in the future. Too bad spending money on a free agent or two is just not in this franchise's DNA!
 
All this is not to say that the Twins will not be competitive next year, but do you really think their chances will be better than the present? The window was wide open this year, but Falvey decided to be cautious at the trade deadline despite having sizable payroll space and a nice surplus of prospects to trade. You don't have many chances in this game for the brass ring - a fact that Falvey and company might rue in future years.

For weeks we’ve heard talk of the big names. Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, and Noah Syndergaard were all assets expected to be moved at the July 31 trade deadline. Because the Minnesota Twins are one of the best teams in baseball they were consistently linked to the best gets, and so too were every other major market. In the end, that trio went nowhere, but it’s in how Minnesota executed on their moves that makes the maneuvering something to get behind.
 
Without hammering out more thoughts on Sergio Romo, it’s hard to see that move as anything but a come up. I already wrote about the move when it happened over the weekend, but they turned a guy who was going to be lost during the Rule 5 draft into a strong reliever and an equal or better prospect. Knowing the goal was relief help, Derek Falvey struck early on the former Marlins close.
 
As the deadline neared on Tuesday afternoon, apprehension began to set in. Hours faded away, they turned into minutes, and the 3pm CT mark came and went. Then there was a tweet Darren Wolfson sent simply saying, “Stay tuned.” As long as deals are finalized with the league office prior to the cutoff, they go through. Having not yet been reported, Minnesota was in fact making a move.
 
All along it was thought that Smith was the San Francisco Giants reliever on his way out of town. Stringing together some victories of late however, Bruce Bochy’s club is going to make one more run and held onto their top starter and reliever. In doing this, Falvey likely pivoted to what can be argued as a better get.
 
Sam Dyson is a 31-year-old reliever with closing experience. Having familiarity with Thad Levine from his Texas days, Dyson closed out 38 games for the Rangers in 2016. This year he’s posted a 2.47 ERA 2.74 FIP 8.3 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. He doesn’t still throw upper 90’s like earlier in his career, but he sits in the middle and doesn’t give up free bases. Under team control through next season as well, this move plays into the future.
 

 
Going into the deadline I opined that the Twins could do no worse than two relievers with a starter pushing someone to the bullpen as gravy. None of the big relief names moved and Dyson represents the best arm to switch teams. Outside of Chris Martin, who is an impending free agent, Romo likely comes in above the rest as well.
 
If you find yourself disappointed that the likes of Thor, MadBum, or Greinke won’t be in the home dugout any time soon I’d like to offer some perspective. First and foremost, neither of the first two players switched teams. The Mets asked for the most important player on the Twins roster in the middle of a season, while the Giants we’re holding a big name with declining performance back for a king’s ransom.
 
Houston did well to land Greinke, and coming in after the buzzer he certainly provided the big bang to end the day. The former Diamondbacks starter would’ve been an ideal candidate for Minnesota as adding salary is certainly an avenue they could’ve went down. He would’ve helped to solidify the rotation and also is under contract. He is 35-years-old though, and most importantly had a full no-trade clause. It was his choice where he went, and that wasn’t here.
 
Almost as what the Twins got at the deadline is what they held onto. With the big names floated for weeks, so two were prospects like Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, and Trevor Larnach. Falvey added talent in the most necessary part of the roster without giving up a single top 20 prospect. Lewin Diaz was the highest ceiling moved, and he was unquestionably buried behind some better depth. Jaylin Davis is having an incredible 2019, but it’s come out of nowhere and again is in an area of depth.
 
You want to see a team start to push chips in when a window opens, but you must be certain that it isn’t just cracked. The Astros have made waves the last two seasons now in the midst of a third straight 100 win campaign. The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres in a final piece World Series move after winning 97 games the year prior, and are now looking at a fifth straight 90 win campaign. Those types of moves are risky but were beyond substantiated.
 
Minnesota should win 100 games this year but it comes on the heels of a losing season. This core looks the part of a team that should be a Postseason and World Series contender for at least the next five seasons. They have no less than 15 players that are impact talent and will be 32-years-old or under four years from now. Rocco Baldelli’s 25-man roster is good enough right now to beat anyone in the Postseason. In 2020 and beyond, some of the additional depth can be turned into more talent, as the opportunity stays present.
 
To summarize the past few weeks that led up to a frenzied couple of hours today, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine showed poised perfection in how they handled talent acquisition. The big league club got substantially better. The farm system did not get any worse. Sustained winning is still a probable outcome and the team from Twins Territory is as dangerous as it’s ever been.
 
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We are within the last 24 hours before the trade deadline and the market has been quiet for basically every non-Mets team in MLB. Apparently, this has become a pattern around major league GM’s in recent memory, whether it’s the deadline or offseason free agency. The fact is, none of the contenders has done much so far. What if they don’t?
 
First of all, this is not what I assume is going to happen. I believe that, eventually, teams willing to win will make their moves. But I’m curious to see what’s going to happen if none of them actually pulls the trigger until tomorrow. Granted, 2019 has one particularity. Most teams are considerably indecisive about being sellers or buyers, as USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale tweeted on Monday:
 
https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1155904273567211521
 
Like I said, I strongly believe that contending teams will pull the trigger. But I have to say that I’m starting to be a little bit concerned if the Twins are among those teams. Don’t get me wrong, I really hope this suspicion is completely wrong. But if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine don’t bring in the stars Twins fans are hoping for, it wouldn’t be something never seen before in their regime.
 
The biggest example that comes to my mind is the last offseason. After bringing in key veterans to power the already good offense in C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins had basically one urgent matter to address: the bullpen. For us fans, it sounded crazy to think they wouldn’t sign big names in the beginning of the year, especially because they had plenty of payroll room for that.
 
We all know what happened. The Twins decided to wait and made Blake Parker their one and only big free agent signing for the bullpen. Six months later, they still have the same urgent matter to be addressed. What if they choose to approach it the same way? Chances are very little, but here are three questions I ask about this current deadline for the Twins.
 
Is this their “all in year”?
This is an important matter. Is 2019 the ultimate contending year for the Twins? Should they spend top prospects to make the team stronger for this playoff run? One can argue that it isn’t. The Twins already have one of the best young cores in baseball. And that’s talking about MLB-talent, not only about prospects. The best offense in the league has an average age of 27.7. If it wasn’t for Nelson Cruz, it would be 26.9. That’s unbelievably young.
 
Also, Fangraphs currently ranks the Twins’ farm system as the sixth best in MLB and Minnesota has five players in the Top 100 Prospects in the game. So, would it really be the worst thing in the world if they didn’t commit to winning this year’s World Series? Maybe not. Maybe trusting this young core and let them get post-season experience at this point could make a huge difference in the years to come.
 
Is this team good enough to win?
I’ll be straight here and say that I don’t think so. But some people do. In several moments, Minnesota had the best record in baseball and have solidly stayed put within the top four teams in the league. Is it crazy to assume they can pull this? Perhaps no. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski tweeted yesterday an interesting rank of how many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each team has outside their top four players. Guess who’s on top?
 
https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1155913288179441666
 
Bottom line, Minnesota has a damn good team. They have taken the season series against the Astros earlier in the year and made the Yankees sweat to defeat them. Also, they currently have a 29-24 record against teams with .500 or above. That’s an 88-win pace on a 162-game season. It’s hard to believe, but such inconsistent pitching staff as the Twins’ has been currently has the seventh best ERA and FIP in the game, as well as the fourth most WAR. Like I said, I don’t think this team has what it takes to win it all the way its roster is right now, but I don’t think those who believe that are being unreasonable.
 
Are there really good options?
Maybe the biggest concern for all teams considering buying in this deadline is the lack of clear options. One of the Twins main targets, Marcus Stroman, was traded to the Mets during the weekend for an unbelievably cheap price. The Mets also kind of ruled out trading Noah Syndergaard to Minnesota when they asked for Byron Buxton in return, as reported by Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III. In his opinion, “the Twins seem comfortable with their rotation”. And that probably adds up. I mean - and this is an honest question - who do you see in the league now that would represent a considerable leap in quality for the Twins rotation? Should they spend quality prospects to get players who would produce the same as their current starters?
 
When talking about the bullpen, things are clearly different when we talk about the club’s needs, but no so different when we talk about availability of options. In my opinion, the best option for Minnesota and for any team, for that matter, would be the Pirates’ Felipe Vásquez. But rumors have it that Pittsburgh is asking too much. Is he worth giving two or three top prospects for you? Besides, the Dodgers seem like frontrunners to acquire him. Kirby Yates also looks like a great fit, but the Padres appear to be in buyers mode, as they have inquired the Mets about bringing in “Thor”.
 
There are other names who could be pursuited. So far, Sergio Romo is the only addition and Cody Allen is doing work in the minors to try to earn a spot. Neither of them cost the Twins much. Maybe we should be expecting cheap signings like these two instead of big splashes. Maybe they will work. What would you do?
 
By this time tomorrow we will have our answers. Minnesota has to choose between shopping big and try to win it all this year or just modestly improve an already good team, patiently waiting for years to come and not compromising the long-term future.

It has been a week since the Minnesota Twins' last off day, and in that time they've played six games, all on the road and all against divisional opponents.
 
The Good:
The good news is that the Twins still don't have a losing segment on their schedule. This means that they have yet to have a losing road trip or home stand. The team ended the week with a slug fest against the Detroit Tigers, but early in the week it was Jose Berrios' start that snapped a 2-game losing "streak." Berrios looked like everything an ace should be, righting the team's ship following two poor performances, the first game being Devin Smeltzer looking good except for four mistake pitches that were belted for home runs and the second a game where the Twins pitching and defense squandered an offense that put up 7 runs. Of course Berrios wouldn't have been able to win the game if it wasn't for Max "Power" Kepler breaking his 0-21 at-bat streak with 3 home runs. The Twins bats are still another good, with the team hitting 16 more home runs to bring their season total to 125.
 
The Bad:
I'm going to have to say that the bad of this week was probably a few pitchers just losing it when they needed it. The week started with Smeltzer's mistakes leading to 5 runs, which was the first loss. Game two featured 7 Twins' runs, but also featured Blake Parker giving up 3 runs in one inning and the team losing by 2. Skipping to the Twins 9-3 loss on Saturday in Detroit, starter Kyle Gibson gave up 5 runs while reliever Matt Magill gave up 4 in one inning. So, the Twins definitely need to find some more consistency especially out of the bullpen. It is worth noting that Smeltzer has been sent back down to triple-A with the return of Michael Pineda.
 
The Ugly:
The Twins not landing Craig Kimbrel. This is less about the team and more about the fans around the team. Reports are that the Twins made a very competitive offer, but Kimbrel decided to sign with the Chicago Cubs, reportedly because he wanted at least a three year deal. The reception by fans has not been happy. Kimbrel undoubtedly has elite stuff, and could be key to a Cubs playoff run, which would only make Twins fans more angry. Of course I alluded to it before, but the casual fan saw Kimbrel as the move to solidify the bullpen and give consistency to a group that can really rely on one maybe two pitchers in high leverage situations. However, I don't know that the Kimbrel move would have done that. Kimbrel has yet to face any big league hitters this year, and likely won't see the field for another few weeks. Nobody knows where his stuff will be after not having pitched since last October, it might take a month to figure out, or he might not be very good for the whole rest of this year. The final gripe that I've seen with this deal, or lack thereof, is that this is "typical Pohlad penny-pinching." However, Kimbrel's issue wasn't with money but with years, so the Twins may have been ready to put up the money, but didn't want to lock themselves in and be prevented from making moves in the future. In any case, this was a miss on a free agent that is sure to cause a rift between a lot of fans and the team, especially if the bullpen does not perform up to snuff for what should be a good playoff team.

With recent struggles from Twins pitchers, for example, an early season discussion has been brought up this week. Did the Twins address well enough the team’s need during the offseason? Some people sure feel like they didn’t. But one offseason move (out of several others) that we can absolutely tell was right on the money was the Marwin Gonzalez signing.
 
Having played this season in six different positions throughout the field, while also batting DH and pinch hitting, “Margo” is officially one of the most useful pieces a team could have in the sport. Baseball Essential considered Gonzalez the best super-utility player in the game. He was an invaluable help overall during the first couple of months of the season, filling in for injured Miguel Sanó, starting 52 of the team’s 60 games.
 
But it took a while for most Twins fans to see Gonzalez as indispensable. He had a horrible first month offensively, batting .167, with a .501 OPS and 34 wRC+ in 23 games. Even though bad starts offensively have always been a part of his career, people started doubting him, on some level. Overall, he holds a .228 AVG, with a .675 OPS in his eight years in the league. Still, even specialists believed he was bound to lose at bats and become the third option to start at third base, once Willians Astudillo was having himself a hot start of the season. The Turtle was batting .327 with an .870 OPS by the end of April, so it was the natural choice then.
 
But then, things shifted. Since May 1st, he’s batting .304/.376/.500. In that span, only two other players drew more walks than him, who got 11. Also, Gonzalez has been left-handed pitchers’ nightmare, as he’s slashing .378/.425/.541 against them. He completely turned his season around. With 125 PA since the start of May, he’s been the fifth most used player in the offense, with more PA’s than everyday starters Jonathan Schoop and Byron Buxton, for example. He’s become a vital and dependable part of this MLB-best offense.
 
But that’s not even his biggest contribution. Not only is he doing some damage at the plate lately, but he’s also been playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. Being a bench player, he will never win such award, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an above average defender. And what’s more impressive about this? He does so in more than one position. Here are some defensive stats.
 
As a 3B (257.2 innings)
3 DRS
1.8 UZR
.989 FP
4 DPS
69 Assists
21 PO
1 Error (TE)
 
Gonzalez' three defensive runs saved would be tied for sixth best in MLB, if he qualified. He has as many as 2018 Gold Glove Award winner Nolan Arenado, who's already played over twice as many innings as him this year. He has saved more runs than players such as old friend Eduardo Escobar, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Matt Carpenter and José Ramírez, all of which have been on the field for at least 446 1/3 innings. Regarding his UZR, he would also be tied for sixth best in the game, beating names like Evan Longoria and Alex Bregman, the AL runner-up for the Gold Glove award last year.
 
When looking at his assists amount, he doesn’t rank very high in the league, but, of course, his sample time on the field is much smaller than the average everyday third baseman. If he had had the opportunity to play, say, 400 innings on the field, he would have an equivalent of 107 assists, which would rank him 5th in the league. Had he been there for 500 innings, we would be talking about a league second best 133 assists. But, of course, this is purely hypothetical mathematics.
 
As an OF (81 innings)
3 DRS
0.9 UZR
.933 FP
2 Assists
12 PO
1 error (FE)
 
In the outfield, Gonzalez also has a very small sample, which prevent him from competing with the everyday outfielder in the stats department. But, still, you can tell he’s not at all a bad defender there either. He has as many defensive runs saved as Mike Trout does and one more than NL MVP Christian Yelich. So, the Twins signed a player that, if starting regularly in his primary position, would compete for the league’s highest honours in defense. Not too shabby.
 
Far beyond the numbers, by watching Twins game on a daily basis, you can tell what a great defender he is. There hasn’t been a moment in which I’ve felt insecure about Twins defense in the hot corner or wherever “Margo” is on the field.
 
A lot of things could and should be fixed in the Twins roster. But having Gonzalez in the team guarantees that the bench isn’t one of them. It’s impossible to say for sure if Minnesota would be having the same success that they are having right now if he wasn’t a part of the team, but I imagine things would be much harder. Afterall, he might be the best and most prolific utility player in the game right now.

I recently moved to the Anaheim area and was lucky enough to be able to attend Tuesday evenings' game (5/21/19). I also was able to get to a Dodgers' game a few weeks ago against the Nationals.
 
I've been watching the Twins all season on TV (the 5pm start and 8pm finish of the weekday games is glorious), and I am always confident that we are going to end up having a shot to win any game as long as we keep it within 2 or 3 runs because our lineup is beautiful (so deep).
 
The Twins won handedly last night as you all know, but throughout the game something about the team just does not give me that championship edge feel. Especially when I was just able to see a squad like the Dodgers mash the ball around and seemingly always be in control of the game.
 
(I am 'young' and have never seen a Minnesota championship, so I may just be thinking it is never going to occur for any of the teams that I love.)
 
There are so many things to love about the team especially on the offensive side, it feels like runs can be scored at absolutely any part of the lineup with so many great on base percentages and guys mashing balls all over the gaps and out of the park.
 
Maybe this bullpen just doesn't do it for me. Maybe they will clean it up.
 
What do the Twins need to give them that edge? Do you think they already have all of the pieces for a championship run? If we are missing something, what and how do we acquire?
 
GO TWINS GO