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  • What Experts Are Saying About Potential Top Pick Hunter Greene


    Tom Froemming

    The 2016 season mercifully came to an end, and Twins fans hope to someday be rewarded for suffering through the worst season in team history. Because in baseball, sometimes in the long run it pays to lose.

    Thanks to their impressive ability to rack up losses, the Twins "won" the first overall pick in the 2017 Draft. Yes, it will be several years before we'll see the team's top pick play at Target Field, but that doesn't change how exciting it is that the team will have the opportunity to add a franchise-changing talent to the organization.

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    Who the Twins may take with the first selection will probably be speculated about right down to draft day. Last week, Jeremy Nygaard did a great job of outlining a handful of players the Twins are likely looking into as potential No. 1 picks.

    Draft day (June 12, 2017) is still a long way away, but it appears at the moment that Hunter Greene has broken out as the guy with the highest ceiling in the class. The question is should that be what the Twins target, or should they look for more certainty and lower risk? If the Twins are searching for a player to make a more immediate impact, they'll likely pass on Greene, who will be just 17-years-old on draft day.

    A standout pitcher and shortstop for Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Calif, Greene can flirt with 100 mph on the mound and has a home run derby crown to his credit, hitting moonshots out of Wrigley Field at the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

    And he appears to be a bright kid, as he was recently boasting about getting a 31 (out of a possible 36) on the ACT. For more on Greene's backstory, look no further than Hudson Belisky of Baseball America's excellent and thorough profile.

    Time will tell if he can maintain the 1-1 buzz, but below are quotes from some credible sources with first-hand knowledge of Greene. Each of these was pulled from articles with more information on Greene and some have reports on other players in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick, so I would encourage you to check them out. Also, with Greene being such a high-profile player already, there's tons of video of him on YouTube to drool over.

    "Greene was 96-98 mph in his inning of work with a super loose arm and little effort. His delivery is too quick, so while he stays online, and threw strikes on Saturday, to remain a starter he's probably going to have to slow it down and get a consistent rhythm. But this kind of arm -- present plus velocity without substantial effort -- is rare."

    -Keith Law, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Under Armor All-American Game [link]

    "Likely at the top of most boards right now. A shortstop and a pitcher, there is some debate over where he has more potential. Keep in mind a high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall."

    -Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com [link]

    "His fastball is absolutely electric, sitting in the mid-90s and touching as high as 98 with good extension and movement that plays in the zone. I think Greene’s heater would be effective in the big leagues right now and, though the rest of his repertoire is middling, his body and athleticism make the entire package worthy of top-of-the-draft consideration."

    -Eric Longenhagen, Fangraphs [link]

    "Greene’s delivery starts with an athletic, well-coordinated leg lift. He folds his front leg and brings his knee to the height of his sternum, and then his hands break just as his leg comes down and his lower half begins to generate torque. He has an easy arm action, with a slight wrap in the back and explosive arm speed as he fires through his three-quarters slot. Greene lands online and spins off his front toes as his back side comes through. He gets his torso extended over his front side, giving him additional extension towards home plate. His arm decelerates well, finishing across his body without recoil or violence, and his head stays still throughout the process."

    -Hudson Belinksy, Baseball America [link]

    "Greene has an athletic-yet-sturdy build at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds to go along with his emerging three-pitch repertoire and clean delivery. He ran his fastball up to 98 mph more than once this summer, settling into the mid-90s in short stints. His low-80s slider isn’t consistent yet but flashes plus potential, and he’s also shown an advanced change-up."

    -Jesse Burkhart, Today's Knuckleball [link]

    "He has shown two potential plus pitches and another bonus is that he will still be 17 on draft day. On upside alone, there is not a better player in this class."

    -Jeff Ellis, Scout.com [link]

    "He sat at 94-96 mph with his fastball with considerable movement and touched 98. His slider was inconsistent at best during the Under Armour All-American Game the previous month, but it flashed plus here, and he was able to locate the pitch for strikes for the most part. He also showed a change in the mid-80s that he buried down with good arm speed, and although he didn't have great feel for it, you can see the makings of a quality third offering."

    -Christopher Crawford, ESPN.com, on Greene's performance at the Area Code Games [link]

    Of course, Greene's status as a potential top pick isn't written in stone. It's more like written in sand at high tide. There's another dozen or so players who have the opportunity between now and the draft to establish themselves as the top pick between now and June.

    Whoever ends up with that honor will hopefully one day help Twins fans make this 103-loss season worth all the suffering.

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    Found article quoted from the Pioneer Press about Neil Allen's take. I found it to be interesting. Think it is time to look not only at stuff, but command of that stuff, which the Twins do not seem to be following.

    Maybe we find a pitcher that not only has stuff, but some idea how to use it. They will be closer to the major leagues, but not a pitch to contact type.

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    No to another high school prospect. No no no. Coupled with having to decide if he is a position player or pitcher, this would spell trouble. 

     

    There's not deciding....he's a SP. He could play SS, but that's not his path to stardom.

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    Something to think about with regard to high school pitchers: How often does the consensus best high school arm going into the draft actually turn into the best pitcher? For some examples:

     

    2007: Best HS arm (according to BA) was Rick Porcello, who was #2 pitcher overall after David Price. 4th best HS pitcher (9th best pitcher overall, and 6th pitcher taken) was Madison Bumgarner.

     

    2010: Best HS arm was Jameson Taillon, who was considered neck-and-neck with Manny Machado for #2 prospect behind Bryce Harper. At pick #34 and #38 the Blue Jays draft Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.

     

    2011: Best HS arm was Dylan Bundy (and best overall pitcher according to BA) in loaded 2011 class. 5th best HS pitcher (12th best pitcher, 20th best overall, 7th pitcher taken overall) was Jose Fernandez.

     

    I'm not say that the Twins should avoid Greene at all costs. If it turns out that he is clearly the best player in a lackluster class, then by all means pick him. But if there is serious doubt about the best player, I think the better strategy is to take the position player 1-1 and load up on high-upside arms in the later picks.

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    Something to think about with regard to high school pitchers: How often does the consensus best high school arm going into the draft actually turn into the best pitcher? For some examples:

     

    2007: Best HS arm (according to BA) was Rick Porcello, who was #2 pitcher overall after David Price. 4th best HS pitcher (9th best pitcher overall, and 6th pitcher taken) was Madison Bumgarner.

     

    2010: Best HS arm was Jameson Taillon, who was considered neck-and-neck with Manny Machado for #2 prospect behind Bryce Harper. At pick #34 and #38 the Blue Jays draft Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.

     

    2011: Best HS arm was Dylan Bundy (and best overall pitcher according to BA) in loaded 2011 class. 5th best HS pitcher (12th best pitcher, 20th best overall, 7th pitcher taken overall) was Jose Fernandez.

     

    I'm not say that the Twins should avoid Greene at all costs. If it turns out that he is clearly the best player in a lackluster class, then by all means pick him. But if there is serious doubt about the best player, I think the better strategy is to take the position player 1-1 and load up on high-upside arms in the later picks.

     

    How do you ever develop pitching, if you pass on it out of fear?

     

    Have you looked at success rates of SPs and position players, both? 

     

     

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    How do you ever develop pitching, if you pass on it out of fear?

     

    Have you looked at success rates of SPs and position players, both? 

    As a rebuttal, I might ask you how do you ever create a winning team by trading 3-WAR position players for 2-WAR pitchers. :)

     

    It's not passing out of fear - it's trying to make an informed decision based on the risk/reward of different player profiles. Personally, I think developing pitching is all about casting a broad as net as possible rather than focusing on one or two singular talents. In the case of the top of the draft, I think the evidence shows that there is traditionally much better luck with hitters than pitchers. And selecting a really good position player with the top pick is a great way to free up a lot of resources to focus on pitching via other avenues (other draft picks, trades acquisitions, free agency, international markets). Lots of teams (ex. Cleveland) have put together excellent pitching staffs without using top picks.

     

    While there isn't a definitive study that I'm aware of, the general consensus from a wide range of research is that pitchers are riskier and have lower expected value at an equivalent pick/ranking. For example, see 

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/

    http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

     

    The first article, looking at first round picks, showed that pitchers (college and high school) end up producing roughly 50% less value than position players:

    College hitters– 1.336 WAR/year
    High School hitters– 1.204 WAR/year
    College pitchers– .649 WAR/year
    High School pitchers– .878 WAR/year

     

    The second article focuses on prospect lists rather than draft picks, but even with the additional year(s) of knowledge of the players' performance in pro-ball, the results show that equivalently ranked pitchers produce less WAR in total and are busts more often.

     

    I think there are a lot of limitations with all of the draft analysis over the past few years for a number of reasons, so please don't assume that I'm taking these numbers as gospel truth. But I do think there is enough evidence that SOME discount needs to be applied when trying to calculate the future value of pitchers. The 1-1 pick is super valuable - expected value of 15-20 WAR during pre-free agency seasons - so applying even a small discount (say 20%) to that, and you end up losing 5 WAR by picking a pitcher over an equivalently talented hitter. That's a lot of value - by some measures that's equivalent to a pick in the 10-15 range, or trading a 3-WAR player for a 2-WAR player. But if one thinks that Greene (or any other pitcher) is significantly better than any other position player, then by all means take him.

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    No to another high school prospect. No no no. Coupled with having to decide if he is a position player or pitcher, this would spell trouble. 

     

    I'm weary of another high school pitcher.  Unless he absolutely knocks your socks off and you REALLY think he's the one, I would shy away from using the #1 pick on him.

     

    I'd be looking at the best college pitcher available .  If the idea is to try and get better pitchers up here soon and complement the young core before they get to far along (Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, etc.) we need to draft college level starters that are more refined and could make it in the next two seasons.  

     

    A high school pitcher (unless he's an enigma) is going to toil away in the minors for 4 or 5 years at least (realistically) due to age and maturity differences.  

     

    That means your #1 draft pick high school starter will like not reach the bigs until 2020 at the earliest.  Too long IMO.  Go with either the best position player available or best college starter available.

    Edited by laloesch
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    I'm weary of another high school pitcher.  Unless he absolutely knocks your socks off and you REALLY think he's the one, I would shy away from using the #1 pick on him.

     

    I'd be looking at the best college pitcher available .  If the idea is to try and get better pitchers up here soon and complement the young core before they get to far along (Sano, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, etc.) we need to draft college level starters that are more refined and could make it in the next two seasons.  

     

    A high school pitcher (unless he's an enigma) is going to toil away in the minors for 4 or 5 years at least (realistically) due to age and maturity differences.  

     

    That means your #1 draft pick high school starter will like not reach the bigs until 2020 at the earliest.  Too long IMO.  Go with either the best position player available or best college starter available.

     

     

    The other thing too is the lack of specialization here.  He's a pitcher but also a potential shortstop or vice versa?  This to me is red warning flags.  I mean what is he?  A pitcher or an infielder and why the dual tract?  Has he not decided which direction he wishes to go? Just smells fishy to me.

     

    People are always wooooed and wowweeed by the the headline "elite prospect throws upper 90's!!! Potential 95-120 mph fastball", in flashing neon lights.  To me this is hook line and sinker and really a sign that the prospect is a make work project that needs tons of time in the minors developing due to lack of control.  The Twins have a very poor record of developing guys like this (Alex Meyer comes to mind).    

    Edited by laloesch
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    The other thing too is the lack of specialization here.  He's a pitcher but also a potential shortstop or vice versa?  This to me is red warning flags.  I mean what is he?  A pitcher or an infielder and why the dual tract?  Has he not decided which direction he wishes to go? Just smells fishy to me.

     

    People are always wooooed and wowweeed by the the headline "elite prospect throws 98-100 mph fastball", but to me this is hook line and sinker and really a sign that the prospect is a make work project that needs ton of time in the minors developing due to lack of control.  The Twins have a very poor record of developing guys like this (Alex Meyer comes to mind).    

     

    Lots of HS kids pitch and play other positions. He just happens to be great at both.

     

    He's being considered for 1:1.....this isn't some random guy....

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    Lots of HS kids pitch and play other positions. He just happens to be great at both.

     

    He's being considered for 1:1.....this isn't some random guy....

     

    Yeah..... but usually if your that good at one position you pick one or the other not both.  I played sports in high school and college and that was very rare, at least the schools i went too.  I mean if the team was a stinker it was much more common and it also depended on the sport too.

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    FYI, Florida is playing at Vanderbilt April 13, 14 and 15. I don't know if I could make that trip with two young kids at home, but that would certainly be a fun road trip with the possibility of seeing 4 of the top potential picks in the draft (Faedo, Schwarz on Florida and Wright and Kendall on Vanderbilt. Plus Nashville is a pretty fun town, or so I have heard.

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    I'm with Thrylos. I like guys that show command of good secondary stuff. The "aces" in MLB are more than just guys with velocity, but have great secondary pitches.

     

    Agreed.  Control is everything and multiple offerings is the difference between a flame throwing relief pitcher and an ace starter.  If he was a bit further along with the secondary offerings it would be a no brainier pick, but at this point it's iffy.

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    Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks is minutes away from where I live! Their season starts soon. Hey glunn, do you want to join me and catch Hunter Greene before he has Tommy John surgery? I think I will catch a couple high school games.

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