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  • Twins Top Prospects Part 4: 11-20 (Preliminary)


    Seth Stohs

    Last week, we posted the first three parts of my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list by reviewing prospects 41-50, prospects 31-40 and prospects 21-30. Today, we’ll start to review my choices for the Top 20 Twins prospects with a look at the next ten prospects, 11-20. In many organizations, several from this group would be Top 10 guys.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (Walker, Thorpe, Kepler)

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    Reminders: This list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, as well as your feedback, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings.

    Top Prospects 11-20

    #20 – Amaurys Minier – 18 – OF – GCL Twins

    Although Minier showed good power in his GCL debut as a 17-year-old in 2013 (5-2B, 6-HR), he hit just .214 and got on base just 25% of the time. He had offseason surgery on his shoulder, so he returned to the GCL Twins spending extended spring training doing more rehabbing. He improved his numbers drastically--as you would hope--, hitting .292/.405/.520 with 11 doubles and eight home runs. He is not known for his defense and never will be, but his power potential is real. He moved from third base to the outfield. He often started games in left field and finished them at first base where he also got more than a dozen starts.

    #19 – Zack Jones – 23 – RH RP – Ft. Myers Miracle/GCL Twins (rehab)

    It was a long, frustrating year for Zack Jones. He was shut down from the Arizona Fall League when he was experiencing coolness in his fingertips. After the New Year, they found that he had an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He had surgery, but soon after, a blood clot was found in his leg. When that was taken care of, he returned to Ft. Myers where he rehabbed for a couple of months before getting a half-dozen appearances with the GCL. He joined the Miracle for the final two weeks and reclaimed his closer’s role. In five appearances and five innings, he did not allow a run. In the playoffs, he was again hitting 98 mph. Despite a lost year, he ends the season on a very high note, and for me, a high ranking on this list. With Mason Melotakis out of the AFL, Jones will return to the league again.

    #18 – Travis Harrison – 21 – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Harrison was the Twins first supplemental first-round draft pick in 2011, out of high school in California. At 6-1 and 215 pounds, he is very strong and has a lot of power potential. Truth be told, he did not show that power in 2014. After hitting 15 homers in 537 plate appearances in Cedar Rapids in 2013, he had just three home runs in 537 plate appearances for the Miracle this year. His walk rate remained about the same while he greatly reduced his strikeout rate, from 23.3% to 16.0%). He also moved from third base to left field where he had just two errors in 98 games and showed improvement through the year. I personally believe that Harrison has the power to become a legit home run hitter which is why I will keep him this high in my rankings.

    #17 – Chih-Wei Hu – 20 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Hu was signed by the Twins out of Taiwan where he was one of the best young players. He was a known commodity in the Asia for his international play. He debuted in the GCL in 2013. He returned to extended spring training to start 2014. He made three starts for Elizabethton and posted a 16:2 K:BB ratio in 16 innings. He advanced to Cedar Rapids where he made another nine starts (10 appearances). He went 7-2 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. In 55 innings, he walked 13 and struck out 48. Hu has a full mix of good pitches: curveball, change-up and palmball, along with a moving fastball that touches 94.

    #16 – Max Kepler – 21 – OF/1B – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Kepler signed with the Twins way back in July of 2009. It’s almost hard to believe that he has yet to turn 22 years old. He was added to the 40 man roster last offseason, and at the All-Star break, the argument could have been made to remove him. However, a strong second half gave him solid overall numbers for the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He hit .264/.333/.393 (.726) with 20 doubles, six triples and five home runs. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, he has big power potential, but he also has very good speed. Though he played primarily right field, he has the speed to play centerfield in the minors. In the big leagues, he’ll be at a corner.

    #15 – Tyler Duffey – 23 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats/Rochester Red Wings

    Duffey was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2012 out of Rice where he pitched in the bullpen. He made 25 starts this season and completed 149.2 innings. Overall, he went 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He began with four starts in Ft. Myers and went 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He moved up to New Britain where he went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He ended his season with three starts at Rochester where he went 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA. As he moved up the system, he began striking out more batters. He also walked less than two batters per game. He was able to hit 94 and 95 at times as a starter. He also has really good curveball and a much-improved changeup.

    #14 – Stephen Gonsalves – 20 – LHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Gonsalves was the team’s fourth-round draft pick in 2013 out of high school in California. He had a strong showing in his pro debut with the GCL and Elizabethton Twins. He began the 2014 season at extended spring training. He made six starts for Elizabethton and went 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. He moved up to Cedar Rapids where he went 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA. However, he gave up six earned runs in 3.2 innings which bumped up his ERA from 1.91. Overall, he worked 65.2 innings and struck out 70 batters while walking 21. The 6-5 left-hander has a fastball in the upper 80s and low 90s with a solid curveball and changeup.

    #13 – Adam Brett Walker – 22 – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Walker was the Twins third-round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. He has been one of minor league baseball’s most productive hitters, one of the biggest run producers. He hit 14 homers in 58 games with Elizabethton in 2012. He hit 31 doubles, 27 homers and drove in 109 runs in 2013 in Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he hit 19 doubles, 25 homers and drove in 94 runs. He hit .246/.307/.436 (.743). He struck out 156 times in 554 plate appearances (28%), but he walked 44 times (8.0%). So, there is still improvement to be made, but the 6-4, 225 pound outfielder has the potential to move up and hit for a lot of power.

    #12 – Eddie Rosario – 23 – OF/2B – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats

    Rosario just turned 23 on Sunday and he is set to return to the Arizona Fall League where he played last year. It’s been an interesting twelve months for the Puerto Rican. Following his showing in the AFL, it came out that he would soon receive a 50-game suspension. When spring training came, he did not show up. He was given an excused absence from the Twins. He went through the 50 games suspension and then played in eight game for the Miracle before moving back to New Britain where he had concluded the 2013 season. He hit just .237/.277/.396 (.672) with 31 extra base hits in 336 plate appearances. Was it rust? Probably. Rosario has a quick bat, average speed and good gap-to-gap power. His best power is to the opposite field. His prospect status does drop due to the off-field issues and general concerns about his attitude, but I believe that he will hit. He spent some time at second base, where few believed he would stick, but with the emergence of Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco, he primarily played in the outfield, where he is above average in the corners and about average in centerfield.

    #11 – Lewis Thorpe – 18 – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

    The Twins signed Thorpe out of Australia in 2012. He made his debut last year in the GCL where he went 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA. In 44 innings, he gave up just 32 hits, walked six and struck out 64 before joining Team Australia in the World Cup tournament. He was clocked at 95 by a couple of radar guns and flew up prospect rankings. This spring, he began the season at extended spring training. However, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids in early June. He got off to a slow start and surprisingly struggled with his control. He quickly turned things around. He was on a pitch count, so he rarely worked as deep as the sixth inning. In 71.2 innings, he gave up 62 hits. He walked 36 and struck out 80. He has a good fastball that touched 94, though it sat 91-92 most of the time. He has a good curveball at a couple of different speeds and a solid changeup. If healthy, he will likely begin 2015 in Cedar Rapids again. He also ended the season with trips to Minneapolis where they found that he has a UCL sprain. He has been working out in Ft. Myers and hopefully will be able to avoid surgery.

    So, what do you think of Part 4, Prospects 11-20? Next up will be my choices for the Top 10 Twins Prospects.

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    Of the 3 Cedar Rapids pitchers on the list. I would rank Chih-Wei-Hu ahead of both Gonsalves and Thorpe. When I saw him pitch he was really polished. But what a great situation to be in to have 3 very high ceiling young starters.  Keep an eye on this young man Twins fans. Hu is really good.

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    Based on your opinion, shouldn't Walker also "dominate" AA in 2015? If he hasn't impressed you the last 2 years, why would he impress you by producing in the next level?

     

    He hasn't "(overly) impressed" me because he did what I "expected" at the low-levels of the minors based on his experience. 

     

    He's "dominated" 2 categories of stats.  In that way, I wouldn't even call what he did in the FSL a "dominant" performance in an overall sense.  He hit HR's, which as a byproduct, also produces nice RBI totals.

     

    Those are certainly nice, but I don't know how anyone can be impressed by a .246 average or a K in nearly 1 of every 3 at-bats in A-ball. 

     

    He'll impress me when he improves those numbers. 

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    He hasn't "(overly) impressed" me because he did what I "expected" at the low-levels of the minors based on his experience. 

     

    He's "dominated" 2 categories of stats.  In that way, I wouldn't even call what he did in the FSL a "dominant" performance in an overall sense.  He hit HR's, which as a byproduct, also produces nice RBI totals.

     

    Those are certainly nice, but I don't know how anyone can be impressed by a .246 average or a K in nearly 1 of every 3 at-bats in A-ball. 

     

    He'll impress me when he improves those numbers. 

    OK I don't think I'd disagree with that.

     

    What if he puts up similar numbers in AA (and higher), though?

     

    If he turns out to be one of those guys who will simply always strike out at a high rate and hit .250... but produce 30+ HR per season (which his MiLB HR numbers would roughly equate to over a full MLB season)... I think I'd find a place for him.

     

    I'm not counting on Walker doing that. But I've probably been more impressed with what he has accomplished than others have.

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    I'm definitely an Adam Brett Walker guy, as everyone knows. My assumption is that a player who will make it will make some adjustments. If Walker can continue to make adjustments each year, enough to put up similar numbers, then that would be great.

     

    It'll take work, but we shall see.

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    Hearing that Gonsalves sits in the high 80's bums me out a bit. Thought he threw harder. Hu is just sounding better and better to me. His mix sounds delicious, and the velo is right. Could be a shooting star next year.

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    Adam Brett Walker has major contact issues.  Can't argue that.  My only argument is that I find it hard to look at the downside of someone who has Never  - NOT been successful / productive at any level (H.S.; College; Collegiate Summer Leagues; Professional).  I'm talking about a guy who regardless to level, seems to still serve as the most productive person on his random teams. My definition of successful is not how an individual can become better, but rather what have you done to make your team successful that season (that day). Helping your team to championships (several) by leading them (all) in HRs and RBIs means something to me. Teams don't win without pitching and run producers.  It can't and shouldn't be overlooked. "We Play to Win the Game" - The thought of expecting failure when it hasn't come yet is not me. I say that to say - If he continues to produce at his current pace when he arrives at the MLB - people will love him.  The overall history of "prospects" proves his potential for failure (agreed).   The history of  Adam Brett Walker II proves otherwise (just saying).
    • High School - Top run producer in his conference and most of state of Wisconsin
    • College - One of the Top run producers in the country (All American - 2 of 3 years)
    • Collegiate Summer League - 2 years and 2 championship teams (Top HR Hitter and RBI guy)
    • Professional  (MiLB) - 3 years and 2 championships (Tops in HRs and RBI in every league)       
     

    I've  never heard anyone on the Twins say "we are concerned"?   We talk about what scouts / experts say every day.  What do the Twins sayDo they see him as a long shot like most do here?  I need to hear from his bosses to end my fixation.  I take the "No News is Good News" philosophy.
    When he stops winning and his numbers hurt his team from doing just that (just once in his lifetime) - I will join the bandwagon for "recipe for MLB failure". Other than that - I need to see failure first (Losing). Some guys are just: Built for Success - Have the Luck of the Irish - Have that Austin Power Mojo - Are Just Blessed - You name it. They have it.   I feel the Twins would be crazy to get rid of this kid.  Especially since winning has been our biggest problem.  WINNERS are hard to come by. Ask Jack Morris!

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    I think one important thing to understand is that most like him a lot as a prospect.  He ranks in the 10-15 range on everyone's list and in another system (or the Twins system 5+ years ago) he would be a top 5ish prospect. 

     

    His biggest problem is that .290 MiLB hitters usually become .260-.270 hitters in the majors.  A .250-.260 hitter (like Walker) becomes a .220-.230 hitter.  Considering that he doesn't like to walk then his OBP is in the .270's.  He has excellent tools and has produced (reasons why he is ranked) but he needs to significantly improve his plate discipline as he moves towards the majors.

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    I'm not hating on other posters views - I'm just more of a believer based on what I see and not what might be.  I see winning and run production to gather those wins, as the end all. 

     

    Tweek the engine, but don't change it.  Especially,  if that engine has gotten you to work without failure (all of your life).  And got you there on time (22 years old)  with no breakdowns (injuries).  Sounds like a strong body / frame and engine with a little rust on it.  A good Midwestern car that gets the job done!  I can see buffing out the dents, but I'm not paying for a new car (free agents) when I have old reliable right here.  I would imagine Walker wants to get better as well.  He has handled each of his new challenges / levels in stride. 

     

    Think of it this way.  The only places where he repeated a level was high school and college.  When given the chance in those environments - the results were .500 BA in H.S. and .400 BA his second year of college (with a .500 OBP).  Still struck out, but major improvements in contact issues.  Get him to his final destination and let him the opportunity to adjust to that level.  Repeating in the minor leagues just means new faces and new pitchers during each half of a season.  Let's think proactive when it comes to his development and move this kid along so he can adjust accordingly.  Like he always has..........................

    Edited by lightfoot789
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    His biggest problem is that .290 MiLB hitters usually become .260-.270 hitters in the majors.  A .250-.260 hitter (like Walker) becomes a .220-.230 hitter. 

    It's certainly true that higher leagues are harder than lower leagues and a batter who moves up tends to see an immediate drop in his stats.  For an older player that might be the end of the story, but someone young can compensate by learning more each year.  I think Walker stands a good chance of avoiding that .220-.230 rut if he reaches the majors.

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    There isn't a person in any minor league system that didn't dominate in High School. Just to get you an idea, the best ball player in my high school who was one of the best in our conference never made it out of A after spending a few years in college absolutely dominating that competition as well. The same can be said for college. Even Drew Butera posted a .915 OPS his junior year of college. This is pretty normal for all prospects to do well in HS/College.

     

    There's a reason Walker was drafted in the 3rd round. To be clear, I like the guy as a prospect, and if he can get beyond those contact issues, I think he will be a star in MLB. I think he can (at his ceiling) be a Vlad Gurerro type guy, who Ks a lot, but still posts overall good numbers... that assumes he can develop a bit more patience and start laying off pitches that he cannot hit. As a prospect, that makes him a pretty good one, and like someone else said, a few years back, he'd be a top 5 prospect in the system. I'd also note that he'd be in the top 10 for most baseball teams if he were in their systems. He's not at the moment in large part b/c of the depth that exists in the Twins' system. There's nothing wrong with that.

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    What if he puts up similar numbers in AA (and higher), though?

     

    If he turns out to be one of those guys who will simply always strike out at a high rate and hit .250... but produce 30+ HR per season (which his MiLB HR numbers would roughly equate to over a full MLB season)... I think I'd find a place for him.

     

    If that happens, there will definitely be a place for him on the Twins!

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