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  • Twins Top Prospects Part 4: 11-20 (Preliminary)


    Seth Stohs

    Last week, we posted the first three parts of my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list by reviewing prospects 41-50, prospects 31-40 and prospects 21-30. Today, we’ll start to review my choices for the Top 20 Twins prospects with a look at the next ten prospects, 11-20. In many organizations, several from this group would be Top 10 guys.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (Walker, Thorpe, Kepler)

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    Reminders: This list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, as well as your feedback, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings.

    Top Prospects 11-20

    #20 – Amaurys Minier – 18 – OF – GCL Twins

    Although Minier showed good power in his GCL debut as a 17-year-old in 2013 (5-2B, 6-HR), he hit just .214 and got on base just 25% of the time. He had offseason surgery on his shoulder, so he returned to the GCL Twins spending extended spring training doing more rehabbing. He improved his numbers drastically--as you would hope--, hitting .292/.405/.520 with 11 doubles and eight home runs. He is not known for his defense and never will be, but his power potential is real. He moved from third base to the outfield. He often started games in left field and finished them at first base where he also got more than a dozen starts.

    #19 – Zack Jones – 23 – RH RP – Ft. Myers Miracle/GCL Twins (rehab)

    It was a long, frustrating year for Zack Jones. He was shut down from the Arizona Fall League when he was experiencing coolness in his fingertips. After the New Year, they found that he had an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He had surgery, but soon after, a blood clot was found in his leg. When that was taken care of, he returned to Ft. Myers where he rehabbed for a couple of months before getting a half-dozen appearances with the GCL. He joined the Miracle for the final two weeks and reclaimed his closer’s role. In five appearances and five innings, he did not allow a run. In the playoffs, he was again hitting 98 mph. Despite a lost year, he ends the season on a very high note, and for me, a high ranking on this list. With Mason Melotakis out of the AFL, Jones will return to the league again.

    #18 – Travis Harrison – 21 – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Harrison was the Twins first supplemental first-round draft pick in 2011, out of high school in California. At 6-1 and 215 pounds, he is very strong and has a lot of power potential. Truth be told, he did not show that power in 2014. After hitting 15 homers in 537 plate appearances in Cedar Rapids in 2013, he had just three home runs in 537 plate appearances for the Miracle this year. His walk rate remained about the same while he greatly reduced his strikeout rate, from 23.3% to 16.0%). He also moved from third base to left field where he had just two errors in 98 games and showed improvement through the year. I personally believe that Harrison has the power to become a legit home run hitter which is why I will keep him this high in my rankings.

    #17 – Chih-Wei Hu – 20 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Hu was signed by the Twins out of Taiwan where he was one of the best young players. He was a known commodity in the Asia for his international play. He debuted in the GCL in 2013. He returned to extended spring training to start 2014. He made three starts for Elizabethton and posted a 16:2 K:BB ratio in 16 innings. He advanced to Cedar Rapids where he made another nine starts (10 appearances). He went 7-2 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. In 55 innings, he walked 13 and struck out 48. Hu has a full mix of good pitches: curveball, change-up and palmball, along with a moving fastball that touches 94.

    #16 – Max Kepler – 21 – OF/1B – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Kepler signed with the Twins way back in July of 2009. It’s almost hard to believe that he has yet to turn 22 years old. He was added to the 40 man roster last offseason, and at the All-Star break, the argument could have been made to remove him. However, a strong second half gave him solid overall numbers for the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He hit .264/.333/.393 (.726) with 20 doubles, six triples and five home runs. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, he has big power potential, but he also has very good speed. Though he played primarily right field, he has the speed to play centerfield in the minors. In the big leagues, he’ll be at a corner.

    #15 – Tyler Duffey – 23 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats/Rochester Red Wings

    Duffey was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2012 out of Rice where he pitched in the bullpen. He made 25 starts this season and completed 149.2 innings. Overall, he went 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He began with four starts in Ft. Myers and went 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He moved up to New Britain where he went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He ended his season with three starts at Rochester where he went 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA. As he moved up the system, he began striking out more batters. He also walked less than two batters per game. He was able to hit 94 and 95 at times as a starter. He also has really good curveball and a much-improved changeup.

    #14 – Stephen Gonsalves – 20 – LHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Gonsalves was the team’s fourth-round draft pick in 2013 out of high school in California. He had a strong showing in his pro debut with the GCL and Elizabethton Twins. He began the 2014 season at extended spring training. He made six starts for Elizabethton and went 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. He moved up to Cedar Rapids where he went 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA. However, he gave up six earned runs in 3.2 innings which bumped up his ERA from 1.91. Overall, he worked 65.2 innings and struck out 70 batters while walking 21. The 6-5 left-hander has a fastball in the upper 80s and low 90s with a solid curveball and changeup.

    #13 – Adam Brett Walker – 22 – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Walker was the Twins third-round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. He has been one of minor league baseball’s most productive hitters, one of the biggest run producers. He hit 14 homers in 58 games with Elizabethton in 2012. He hit 31 doubles, 27 homers and drove in 109 runs in 2013 in Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he hit 19 doubles, 25 homers and drove in 94 runs. He hit .246/.307/.436 (.743). He struck out 156 times in 554 plate appearances (28%), but he walked 44 times (8.0%). So, there is still improvement to be made, but the 6-4, 225 pound outfielder has the potential to move up and hit for a lot of power.

    #12 – Eddie Rosario – 23 – OF/2B – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats

    Rosario just turned 23 on Sunday and he is set to return to the Arizona Fall League where he played last year. It’s been an interesting twelve months for the Puerto Rican. Following his showing in the AFL, it came out that he would soon receive a 50-game suspension. When spring training came, he did not show up. He was given an excused absence from the Twins. He went through the 50 games suspension and then played in eight game for the Miracle before moving back to New Britain where he had concluded the 2013 season. He hit just .237/.277/.396 (.672) with 31 extra base hits in 336 plate appearances. Was it rust? Probably. Rosario has a quick bat, average speed and good gap-to-gap power. His best power is to the opposite field. His prospect status does drop due to the off-field issues and general concerns about his attitude, but I believe that he will hit. He spent some time at second base, where few believed he would stick, but with the emergence of Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco, he primarily played in the outfield, where he is above average in the corners and about average in centerfield.

    #11 – Lewis Thorpe – 18 – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

    The Twins signed Thorpe out of Australia in 2012. He made his debut last year in the GCL where he went 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA. In 44 innings, he gave up just 32 hits, walked six and struck out 64 before joining Team Australia in the World Cup tournament. He was clocked at 95 by a couple of radar guns and flew up prospect rankings. This spring, he began the season at extended spring training. However, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids in early June. He got off to a slow start and surprisingly struggled with his control. He quickly turned things around. He was on a pitch count, so he rarely worked as deep as the sixth inning. In 71.2 innings, he gave up 62 hits. He walked 36 and struck out 80. He has a good fastball that touched 94, though it sat 91-92 most of the time. He has a good curveball at a couple of different speeds and a solid changeup. If healthy, he will likely begin 2015 in Cedar Rapids again. He also ended the season with trips to Minneapolis where they found that he has a UCL sprain. He has been working out in Ft. Myers and hopefully will be able to avoid surgery.

    So, what do you think of Part 4, Prospects 11-20? Next up will be my choices for the Top 10 Twins Prospects.

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    Players I would trade prospects for

     

    Cole Hamels

    Mat Latos

    Johnny Cueto

    Yu Darvish

    Elvis Andrus

    Desmond Jennings

    Matt Joyce

    Carlos Gonzales

    Wade Miley

    Ervin Santana

    Mike Minor

    Hisashi Iwakuma

    David Peralta

     

    and Giancarlo Stanton...who I would part with Sano and a 2nd tier pitching prospect for.  The Marlins are quietly shopping him as they don't expect to be able to pay to keep him.  I'm not sure if I would move Buxton for him, but I might.

     

    For the rest of them...pretty much every prospect would be available.  I would probably deal highlight a deal with Meyer before Mays or Berrios.  Maybe add a hitter as well. 

     

    Essentially

     

    Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton

     

    Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison for Mat Latos

     

    Honestly, I'm not sure this would be enough to get these guys, and I might add more if that was the case.

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    Players I would trade prospects for

     

    Cole Hamels

    Mat Latos

    Johnny Cueto

    Yu Darvish

    Elvis Andrus

    Desmond Jennings

    Matt Joyce

    Carlos Gonzales

    Wade Miley

    Ervin Santana

    Mike Minor

    Hisashi Iwakuma

    David Peralta

     

    and Giancarlo Stanton...who I would part with Sano and a 2nd tier pitching prospect for.  The Marlins are quietly shopping him as they don't expect to be able to pay to keep him.  I'm not sure if I would move Buxton for him, but I might.

     

    For the rest of them...pretty much every prospect would be available.  I would probably deal highlight a deal with Meyer before Mays or Berrios.  Maybe add a hitter as well. 

     

    Essentially

     

    Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton

     

    Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison for Mat Latos

     

    Honestly, I'm not sure this would be enough to get these guys, and I might add more if that was the case.

     

    Not nearly enough for Stanton, might be close on Latos.

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    The first 9, but Vargas has more than 150 ABs and Garver was 31. I think it might be A.J. Achter.

     

    so whose left for the top 10?

    Burdi

    Polanco

    Stewart

    Berrios

    May

    Meyer

    Gordon

    Buxton

    Sano

    Vargas?

    Garver?

    I'm at loss for the last one.

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    Not nearly enough for Stanton, might be close on Latos.

     

    You think it would take Oswaldo Arcia or Jose Berrios being added?  I'm just considering, the longer they wait, the less leverage they have which is what the Twins could exploit.

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    The vibe on this list largely is either "falling back"-  5 guys are ranked lower on Seth's Top 50 from a year ago- Thorpe, Rosario, Walker, Kepler and Harrison   or "staying about the same"- Gonsalves, Minier and Jones.  Only Duffey, who jumped from #45 to #15 and Hu at #17 look like "comers".  

     

    By contrast,  Seth's 11-20 last year graduated FOUR players to the Twins- Vargas, Santana, May, Pinto. This list of 11-20 has only lower-upside Duffey and more of a 2015 longshot in Rosario with any possible chance of helping the big club next year.

     

     

    Thorpe dropped for now, but he could move up when I do a final version in the book. He could move a few spots depending upon how his elbow acts up. It was a disappointing season for Rosario, plus the suspension and the benching for team rules that cost him a handful of games later. Character counts, but he still is a very good prospect. Walker didn't really fall. Kepler fell due to his first half, but came up a bit again and is encouraging with his second half. Harrison was actually solid, but it would be nice to see the HR show up, and I think they will. Also, OF vs 3B matters a little bit.

     

    I'd also remind people that there has been some graduation but there has also been another draft with a couple of high picks... So, I woudln't worry so much where they are year-to-year because other variables come up. And, frankly, the more a player moves up, the more the bandaid is peeled back, the tougher the competition. If you can maintain your play as you move up, that's pretty impressive!

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    that's kind of our point, birdwatcher.....those prospects look better now, but those other prospects looked good in the past. MOST prospects don't work out, so quit being afraid to trade them for actual MLB players.......

    I agree that it makes sense to consider pretty much any offer of valuable MLB player for prospects at the level of guys below your top 10 (and maybe higher). After all, the downside of having such a deep farm is that it will be virtually impossible to keep all these guys through to the point where they are legit big leaguers. There simply won't be room for all of them with the Twins.

     

    However, I'll also say that going back to the era from which the comparison was made by birdwatcher, I don't recall ever being terribly enthused by even the top 10 prospects on those lists, much less the 11-20 list.

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    Hu and Thorpe are the ones that intrigue me the most. Young guys with apparently great stuff and good control. Since the Twins offense is looking decent and should only get better with Sano and Buxton and if we keep Santana the quality of defensive outfield with Buxton will increase exponentially. Any position player besides Buxton should be available for trade. I do not care to part with any of Berrios, Meyer, May, Stewart, Thorpe or Hu. I liked that we got these kind of guys for Span and Revere. I wouldn't care to backtrack.

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    Players I would trade prospects for

     

    Cole Hamels

    Mat Latos

    Johnny Cueto

    Yu Darvish

    Elvis Andrus

    Desmond Jennings

    Matt Joyce

    Carlos Gonzales

    Wade Miley

    Ervin Santana

    Mike Minor

    Hisashi Iwakuma

    David Peralta

     

    and Giancarlo Stanton...who I would part with Sano and a 2nd tier pitching prospect for.  The Marlins are quietly shopping him as they don't expect to be able to pay to keep him.  I'm not sure if I would move Buxton for him, but I might.

     

    For the rest of them...pretty much every prospect would be available.  I would probably deal highlight a deal with Meyer before Mays or Berrios.  Maybe add a hitter as well. 

     

    Essentially

     

    Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Adam Walker and Jason Wheeler for Giancarlo Stanton

     

    Alex Meyer, Max Kepler, and Travis Harrison for Mat Latos

     

    Honestly, I'm not sure this would be enough to get these guys, and I might add more if that was the case.

    No need to trade prospects for Hisashi Iwakuma. He is a FA. They better pursue him hard. His last couple of outings weren't good but he had a solid year.

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    Another look-back for the fun of it. Tell me, would you trade:

     

    11. Lewis Thorpe for Tyler Robertson?

    12. Eddie Rosario for Luke Hughes?

    13. ABWIII for Joe Benson?

    14. Gonsalves for Rob Delaney

    15. Duffey for Michael McCardell

    16. Kepler for Parmelee

    17. Hu for Manship

    18. Harrison for Dustin Martin

    19. Jones for Slama

    20. Minier for Plouffe

     

    Maybe that last one, right?

    I'm afraid that Kepler will be EXACTLY like Parmelee!

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    You think it would take Oswaldo Arcia or Jose Berrios being added?  I'm just considering, the longer they wait, the less leverage they have which is what the Twins could exploit.

     

    They will have to outbid the Red Sox too. Marlins are probably in no hurry to move him so they can be patient.

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    so whose left for the top 10?

    Burdi

    Polanco

    Stewart

    Berrios

    May

    Meyer

    Gordon

    Buxton

    Sano

    Vargas?

    Garver?

    I'm at loss for the last one.

     

    Hint: Lefty starter.  (Don't want to give it away and ruin the suspense!)

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    Great job Seth. Lots of talent. Glad to see Duffey get his dues. Not sure if Rosario deserves that high of ranking. I can easily see Thorpe in top 10, 18 years old in LowA, doing well, bad arm or not, he's got a bright future.

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    I am a bit higher on Minier.  I think that he is a top 10 if not a top 5 guy in this team (with May, Vargas, Santana, & Co all graduating from these lists...)  

     

    I would buy as high as #8, but probably a year early on the top 5. I want to see something in full season ball before I jump completely on the bandwagon.

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    Thorpe dropped for now, but he could move up when I do a final version in the book. He could move a few spots depending upon how his elbow acts up. It was a disappointing season for Rosario, plus the suspension and the benching for team rules that cost him a handful of games later. Character counts, but he still is a very good prospect. Walker didn't really fall. Kepler fell due to his first half, but came up a bit again and is encouraging with his second half. Harrison was actually solid, but it would be nice to see the HR show up, and I think they will. Also, OF vs 3B matters a little bit.

     

    I'd also remind people that there has been some graduation but there has also been another draft with a couple of high picks... So, I woudln't worry so much where they are year-to-year because other variables come up. And, frankly, the more a player moves up, the more the bandaid is peeled back, the tougher the competition. If you can maintain your play as you move up, that's pretty impressive!

     

    Walker dropped from 10 to 13, and his numbers in A+ still raise red flag doubts on whether he'll ever be a productive major leaguer, Harrison dropped from 12 to 18 and had similar struggles in Ft Myers to Walker leading to the same doubts long-term.  Kepler fell from 8 to 16 and it becomes ever more doubtful if there will ever be a spot available for him on the Twins before they have to make a decision on cutting ties.  Rosario was a well-documented mess in 2014, falling from 5 to 12.   Bottom line, all four need to have big years at Chattanooga in 2015 to stay in the mix as future elite Twins prospects.

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    Walker dropped from 10 to 13, and his numbers in A+ still raise red flag doubts on whether he'll ever be a productive major leaguer.  Bottom line, all four need to have big years at Chattanooga in 2015 to stay in the mix as future elite Twins prospects.

     

    Are the Red Flags the League leading 25 HRs or the 95 RBI.  Would you care about his red flags if he had the same production in the MLB and same K Rate and low OBP?  The crazy part is he has never Not been productive at any level.  Even in his poorsest season in the  Cape Cod  - He led his Hyannis Team in HRs and RBI while helping them to their first championship in 23 years. Yes I said 23 years.  Did he have K's - Yes.  But 23 years and you're the top run producer on that team.   Why do we continue to wait for his failures when all he has done is Win and Succeed at every level?  Trust me, after a similar season in AA - everyone will say - "I'll wait to see if he can do this at the AAA level where the pitchers are better".   Your Red Flags  haven't stopped him from being a productive professional hitter.

     

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    Out of curiosity - Who are we basing this red flag test on?  Who on the Twins that has past this red flag test and why aren't we winning with them over the last 4 years?  Why is this red flag criteria so important to the fan base - more so than league leading production numbers? 

     

    I can count so many players in the farm system who have had an outstanding OBP yet can't score runs by themselves because that is their only true tool.   Dalton Hicks is another overlooked prospect that only produces year in and year out and receives very little love.  He saves so many errors with his glove around the bag on throws.

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    Poor Matt Tomshaw - Another flawed, non sexy, no love, player who all he does is produce?  Age my...............................

     

    Flawed ranking system with regards to him.  Dickey was old as hell when he made his Knuckler work.  I hope he goes elsewhere and gets the chance to at least fail.

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    I guess I don't understand the no love for Duffy. At 23 his control and ERA are better than Trevor Mays were at that age and league. He throws nearly as hard as May and his control is better at 23 than May as well. He strikes out a lot of batters and doesn't walk many guys either. Seems just as exciting if not more than May to me.

     

    Minier is younger than Polanco last year but his potential is pretty exciting as well. Hu, Gonsalves and Thorpe are very exciting prospects. Maybe I am drinking too much Twins prospects kool aid but I am excited about that 11-20.

    Edited by Dman
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    Out of curiosity - Who are we basing this red flag test on?  Who on the Twins that has past this red flag test and why aren't we winning with them over the last 4 years?  Why is this red flag criteria so important to the fan base - more so than league leading production numbers? 

     

    I can count so many players in the farm system who have had an outstanding OBP yet can't score runs by themselves because that is their only true tool.   Dalton Hicks is another overlooked prospect that only produces year in and year out and receives very little love.  He saves so many errors with his glove around the bag on throws.

    Why do you refuse to let other people express their opinions? They are not out of line, as several national writers point out the exact same thing. I get that you are in Walker's corner, and I am as well. Some prospects are just going to have to prove the 'experts' wrong at every level. You do not have to like it, but trying to over-shout your friends at TD is not going to change anyone's opinion... I think you have proved that beyond a doubt.

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    Out of curiosity - Who are we basing this red flag test on?  Who on the Twins that has past this red flag test and why aren't we winning with them over the last 4 years?  Why is this red flag criteria so important to the fan base - more so than league leading production numbers? 

     

    I can count so many players in the farm system who have had an outstanding OBP yet can't score runs by themselves because that is their only true tool.   Dalton Hicks is another overlooked prospect that only produces year in and year out and receives very little love.  He saves so many errors with his glove around the bag on throws.

     

    We aren't trying to produce the best AA players.  You might be willing to ignore red flags because someone can hit HR's but that doesn't mean that those red flags aren't still there.  He has a 3.5K to 1BB ratio. 

     

    Somebody mentioned Vargas improving his plate discipline this year in Walker's favor.  Vargas went from 2:1 to 1.6:1 this year (with poor rookie ball ratios).  Not surprisingly his plate discipline got worse in the majors (5:1) and is a concern for next season.  Arcia's best plate discipline in the minors was 2:1 with some worse struggles in short stints.  His plate discipline has not been good at all in the majors at 4:1 and 5:1 and it is the one MAJOR thing that is holding him back from being a good MLB'er.  Walker's plate discipline has been much worse than either of these and it's a MAJOR RED FLAG if he ever wants to be a good MLB'er instead of a great MiLB run producer.

     

    MiLB K:BB ratios of the 3 players

    Vargas 2:1

    Arcia 2.5:1

    Walker 3.5:1

     

    some others that had solid power and some MLB K problems (numbers are just ballpark head calculations)

    Kubel 1.1:1

    Cuddyer 1.6:1

    Hunter 2.5:1

    Koskie 1.7:1

    Young 3:1

    Gomez 3:1

    Willy 1.3:1

     

    There are examples of good players with 3:1 except that each of these were much younger at similar levels.  Walker is still an interesting prospect but let's not act like red flags don't exist.

    Edited by kab21
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    Walker is a very polarizing prospect.

     

    His production has been outstanding.  But as all have mentioned, it has not been without their warts.

     

    My main issue with him, is despite his "young" age, he played 3 full seasons of college ball, and never should have been in the Midwest League his first year.  He was and is more experienced than everyone else his same age.  I expected him to dominate the MWL from a run producing standpoint, in the same way I expected him to do so in the FSL this year.  Thus, I'm not overly impressed to the point where I ignore those red flags that come along with him.  It magnifies them for me.

     

    With that said, I like him a lot, and next year will tell us a lot more about him than either of the last two have.

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    Walker is a very polarizing prospect.

     

    His production has been outstanding.  But as all have mentioned, it has not been without their warts.

     

    My main issue with him, is despite his "young" age, he played 3 full seasons of college ball, and never should have been in the Midwest League his first year.  He was and is more experienced than everyone else his same age.  I expected him to dominate the MWL from a run producing standpoint, in the same way I expected him to do so in the FSL this year.  Thus, I'm not overly impressed to the point where I ignore those red flags that come along with him.  It magnifies them for me.

     

    With that said, I like him a lot, and next year will tell us a lot more about him than either of the last two have.

    Based on your opinion, shouldn't Walker also "dominate" AA in 2015? If he hasn't impressed you the last 2 years, why would he impress you by producing in the next level?

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