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  • Twins Top Prospects Part 4: 11-20 (Preliminary)


    Seth Stohs

    Last week, we posted the first three parts of my preliminary Top 50 Twins prospects list by reviewing prospects 41-50, prospects 31-40 and prospects 21-30. Today, we’ll start to review my choices for the Top 20 Twins prospects with a look at the next ten prospects, 11-20. In many organizations, several from this group would be Top 10 guys.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (Walker, Thorpe, Kepler)

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    Reminders: This list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2015, as well as your feedback, I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list. Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2015. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings.

    Top Prospects 11-20

    #20 – Amaurys Minier – 18 – OF – GCL Twins

    Although Minier showed good power in his GCL debut as a 17-year-old in 2013 (5-2B, 6-HR), he hit just .214 and got on base just 25% of the time. He had offseason surgery on his shoulder, so he returned to the GCL Twins spending extended spring training doing more rehabbing. He improved his numbers drastically--as you would hope--, hitting .292/.405/.520 with 11 doubles and eight home runs. He is not known for his defense and never will be, but his power potential is real. He moved from third base to the outfield. He often started games in left field and finished them at first base where he also got more than a dozen starts.

    #19 – Zack Jones – 23 – RH RP – Ft. Myers Miracle/GCL Twins (rehab)

    It was a long, frustrating year for Zack Jones. He was shut down from the Arizona Fall League when he was experiencing coolness in his fingertips. After the New Year, they found that he had an aneurysm in his right shoulder. He had surgery, but soon after, a blood clot was found in his leg. When that was taken care of, he returned to Ft. Myers where he rehabbed for a couple of months before getting a half-dozen appearances with the GCL. He joined the Miracle for the final two weeks and reclaimed his closer’s role. In five appearances and five innings, he did not allow a run. In the playoffs, he was again hitting 98 mph. Despite a lost year, he ends the season on a very high note, and for me, a high ranking on this list. With Mason Melotakis out of the AFL, Jones will return to the league again.

    #18 – Travis Harrison – 21 – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Harrison was the Twins first supplemental first-round draft pick in 2011, out of high school in California. At 6-1 and 215 pounds, he is very strong and has a lot of power potential. Truth be told, he did not show that power in 2014. After hitting 15 homers in 537 plate appearances in Cedar Rapids in 2013, he had just three home runs in 537 plate appearances for the Miracle this year. His walk rate remained about the same while he greatly reduced his strikeout rate, from 23.3% to 16.0%). He also moved from third base to left field where he had just two errors in 98 games and showed improvement through the year. I personally believe that Harrison has the power to become a legit home run hitter which is why I will keep him this high in my rankings.

    #17 – Chih-Wei Hu – 20 – RHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Hu was signed by the Twins out of Taiwan where he was one of the best young players. He was a known commodity in the Asia for his international play. He debuted in the GCL in 2013. He returned to extended spring training to start 2014. He made three starts for Elizabethton and posted a 16:2 K:BB ratio in 16 innings. He advanced to Cedar Rapids where he made another nine starts (10 appearances). He went 7-2 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. In 55 innings, he walked 13 and struck out 48. Hu has a full mix of good pitches: curveball, change-up and palmball, along with a moving fastball that touches 94.

    #16 – Max Kepler – 21 – OF/1B – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Kepler signed with the Twins way back in July of 2009. It’s almost hard to believe that he has yet to turn 22 years old. He was added to the 40 man roster last offseason, and at the All-Star break, the argument could have been made to remove him. However, a strong second half gave him solid overall numbers for the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He hit .264/.333/.393 (.726) with 20 doubles, six triples and five home runs. At 6-4 and 220 pounds, he has big power potential, but he also has very good speed. Though he played primarily right field, he has the speed to play centerfield in the minors. In the big leagues, he’ll be at a corner.

    #15 – Tyler Duffey – 23 – RHP – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats/Rochester Red Wings

    Duffey was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2012 out of Rice where he pitched in the bullpen. He made 25 starts this season and completed 149.2 innings. Overall, he went 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He began with four starts in Ft. Myers and went 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He moved up to New Britain where he went 8-3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He ended his season with three starts at Rochester where he went 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA. As he moved up the system, he began striking out more batters. He also walked less than two batters per game. He was able to hit 94 and 95 at times as a starter. He also has really good curveball and a much-improved changeup.

    #14 – Stephen Gonsalves – 20 – LHP – Elizabethton Twins/Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Gonsalves was the team’s fourth-round draft pick in 2013 out of high school in California. He had a strong showing in his pro debut with the GCL and Elizabethton Twins. He began the 2014 season at extended spring training. He made six starts for Elizabethton and went 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. He moved up to Cedar Rapids where he went 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA. However, he gave up six earned runs in 3.2 innings which bumped up his ERA from 1.91. Overall, he worked 65.2 innings and struck out 70 batters while walking 21. The 6-5 left-hander has a fastball in the upper 80s and low 90s with a solid curveball and changeup.

    #13 – Adam Brett Walker – 22 – OF – Ft. Myers Miracle

    Walker was the Twins third-round pick in 2012 out of Jacksonville University. He has been one of minor league baseball’s most productive hitters, one of the biggest run producers. He hit 14 homers in 58 games with Elizabethton in 2012. He hit 31 doubles, 27 homers and drove in 109 runs in 2013 in Cedar Rapids. In 2014, he hit 19 doubles, 25 homers and drove in 94 runs. He hit .246/.307/.436 (.743). He struck out 156 times in 554 plate appearances (28%), but he walked 44 times (8.0%). So, there is still improvement to be made, but the 6-4, 225 pound outfielder has the potential to move up and hit for a lot of power.

    #12 – Eddie Rosario – 23 – OF/2B – Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rock Cats

    Rosario just turned 23 on Sunday and he is set to return to the Arizona Fall League where he played last year. It’s been an interesting twelve months for the Puerto Rican. Following his showing in the AFL, it came out that he would soon receive a 50-game suspension. When spring training came, he did not show up. He was given an excused absence from the Twins. He went through the 50 games suspension and then played in eight game for the Miracle before moving back to New Britain where he had concluded the 2013 season. He hit just .237/.277/.396 (.672) with 31 extra base hits in 336 plate appearances. Was it rust? Probably. Rosario has a quick bat, average speed and good gap-to-gap power. His best power is to the opposite field. His prospect status does drop due to the off-field issues and general concerns about his attitude, but I believe that he will hit. He spent some time at second base, where few believed he would stick, but with the emergence of Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco, he primarily played in the outfield, where he is above average in the corners and about average in centerfield.

    #11 – Lewis Thorpe – 18 – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

    The Twins signed Thorpe out of Australia in 2012. He made his debut last year in the GCL where he went 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA. In 44 innings, he gave up just 32 hits, walked six and struck out 64 before joining Team Australia in the World Cup tournament. He was clocked at 95 by a couple of radar guns and flew up prospect rankings. This spring, he began the season at extended spring training. However, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids in early June. He got off to a slow start and surprisingly struggled with his control. He quickly turned things around. He was on a pitch count, so he rarely worked as deep as the sixth inning. In 71.2 innings, he gave up 62 hits. He walked 36 and struck out 80. He has a good fastball that touched 94, though it sat 91-92 most of the time. He has a good curveball at a couple of different speeds and a solid changeup. If healthy, he will likely begin 2015 in Cedar Rapids again. He also ended the season with trips to Minneapolis where they found that he has a UCL sprain. He has been working out in Ft. Myers and hopefully will be able to avoid surgery.

    So, what do you think of Part 4, Prospects 11-20? Next up will be my choices for the Top 10 Twins Prospects.

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    I love prospects like Tyler Duffey that improve as they move up the ladder.  Usually it's the other way around; the player will start out like a house on fire early in their career and then start struggling as they face tougher competition higher in the minor league chain.  From all indications, Duffey is consistently improving all his pitches.  Especially the change-up which Seth mentioned.

     

    Duffey is part of a trio of starting pitchers (including left-hander Jason Wheeler and another lefty  in Seth's top 10)  that I think could surprise and surface with the big club in 2015.

    Edited by nater79a
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    I'm liking Walker at 13.  I also think he will have a Vargas like improvement in 2015.  Vargas improved his K rate; BB rate; BA; SLG%; & OPS; from A+ to AA.  So for those who say "it becomes more difficult at the next level" - It ain't always so. 

     

    Seth is right about Walker being one of the top run producers in baseball.  His 162 game averages over his minor league career stand at: 33 HRs; 124 RBI; 102 Runs; 27 Doubles; 6 Triples; ^ a 82% Stolen Base Rate;  He has played the equivalent of 2 MLB full seasons throughout the minor leagues career (319 games) and these are his averages per season.  His K rate is also super high but his production numbers will look good in MN some day soon.  I really like this 22 year old.

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    Since Thorpe and Gonsalves excelled against older competition, I would have them in the top ten. Also, Diaz and Silva are too low for me since I put more weight on potential.

    Vargas has a much better track record as a hitter than Walker. Even though Walker has great power, he faces long odds to become a more consistent hitter.

    Biggest point - the Twins farm system has never been better in recent years

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    Minier is actually 3 months younger than Nick Gordon.  Did Minier show enough in GCL to get a chance to (presumably) join Gordon starting out in Cedar Rapids?  Just with these 2 names plus the other possible position players and arms ranked between #20-50, plus the 2014 E-Town guys, seems to portend well for another really good Class A team with at least a half-dozen high-end/major league starter-level prospects.

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    Vargas has a much better track record as a hitter than Walker. Even though Walker has great power, he faces long odds to become a more consistent hitter.

     

     

    I agree with the thought that Vargas has a much better track record than Walker. 

     

    I am curious as to how Walker might do with the likes of a Vargas; Sano; Rosario; Buxton batting in front or behind him for a season.  When you prove to be the only true power threat on your team (based on numbers not potential),  that has an affect on how you're pitched throughout a season as well.  Harrison and Kepler and Dalton Hicks have power but don't place fear into an opposing managers gameplan.   I'm also curious as to how Walker progresses when he doesn't have to feel like he has to carry the team from a production standpoint.  If he doesn't drive in runs for the Miracle - They don't win like they did - period!!  When you have more HRs than the 2nd and 3rd ranked players behind you (combined), that affects how you're pitched.  

     

    That will be the tell all for me.  Let him play with guys better than him or equally as threatening than him in the box.  Might improve his patience and overall game.  

    1)  Can they afford to walk him with Vargas or Sano on deck or vice versa? 

    2)  Can they afford to throw him junk pitches with Buxton on base in front of him stealing bases?

    3)  Can he play without the pressure of:  If I don't drive in the runs - Who will?

     

    He did hit .400 in college with a .500 OBP - when he had 2 MLB draft choices hitting in front of him in the lineup.  That was during his All American seasons at JU.  Just saying.......  I love Kepler; Harrison, and DJ HIcks; but they ain't Sano; Vargas; Buxton; or Rosario (Yet) according to this list and other list.  However that group did get to play together at some point in their careers and flourished.  PROTECTION - PROTECTION - PROTECTION

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    Minier is actually 3 months younger than Nick Gordon.  Did Minier show enough in GCL to get a chance to (presumably) join Gordon starting out in Cedar Rapids?  Just with these 2 names plus the other possible position players and arms ranked between #20-50, plus the 2014 E-Town guys, seems to portend well for another really good Class A team with at least a half-dozen high-end/major league starter-level prospects.

     

    Assuming he is healthy there is little reason not to start Minier at Cedar Rapids. It seems the best young guys, especially hitters, can skip the Appy league.

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    I was about to label Kepler a "Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" type of guy until his 2nd half. He definitely look the part, but he finally is starting to put it together. VERY encouraged by him!

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    Definitely interesting to have some of these names outside the top ten!  That means there is a ton of talent.

     

    I also like that a certain fireballing reliever is going to appear in your top 10, just like he would in mine!  And that's pretty much unheard of for a RP.

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    I have always loved Kepler, but the results have not matched the talent yet. At some point, the production needs to be there.....

     

    Walker strikes out a lot, no idea how far he can go because of that. He's going to have to really hit the ball hard to make up for that, imo. Lots of line drives that can't be caught....

     

    I'd bump Hu in front of both of them, I think. Not sure I'd change anything else, this is a list of either high upside guys that have not produced a lot (either over time, or because they haven't been here long), or guys that have good production, but seem to have lower upside. It is a nice list though.

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    Assuming he is healthy there is little reason not to start Minier at Cedar Rapids. It seems the best young guys, especially hitters, can skip the Appy league.

     

    Yeah, but it seems the Twins often find reasons to do so.   It seems if the kid can improve on his contact issues between now and next spring he has a chance to really flourish in a full-year setting, a better facility than E-Town, and with higher level teammates and competition.

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    I gotta admit, that group doesn't look all that exciting.  (Minier and maybe Thorpe might be the exceptions).  Most of the guys are in low A or lower, are too old for the level they are at or had disappointing seasons in low levels.  Last year, I think we had guys like May, Polanco, Santana and Vargas in our 11-20 range.  Much better depth last year.  And clearly, that's part of the ebb and flow of prospect lists but outside of our top 6, I'm not really excited about anyone in the minors like I was about May or Polanco.

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    I have always loved Kepler, but the results have not matched the talent yet. At some point, the production needs to be there.....

     

     

     

    Not sure I'd change anything else, this is a list of either high upside guys that have not produced a lot (either over time, or because they haven't been here long), or guys that have good production, but seem to have lower upside. It is a nice list though.

     

    The vibe on this list largely is either "falling back"-  5 guys are ranked lower on Seth's Top 50 from a year ago- Thorpe, Rosario, Walker, Kepler and Harrison   or "staying about the same"- Gonsalves, Minier and Jones.  Only Duffey, who jumped from #45 to #15 and Hu at #17 look like "comers".  

     

    By contrast,  Seth's 11-20 last year graduated FOUR players to the Twins- Vargas, Santana, May, Pinto. This list of 11-20 has only lower-upside Duffey and more of a 2015 longshot in Rosario with any possible chance of helping the big club next year.

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    Another look-back for the fun of it. Tell me, would you trade:

     

    11. Lewis Thorpe for Tyler Robertson?

    12. Eddie Rosario for Luke Hughes?

    13. ABWIII for Joe Benson?

    14. Gonsalves for Rob Delaney

    15. Duffey for Michael McCardell

    16. Kepler for Parmelee

    17. Hu for Manship

    18. Harrison for Dustin Martin

    19. Jones for Slama

    20. Minier for Plouffe

     

    Maybe that last one, right?

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    I gotta admit, that group doesn't look all that exciting.  (Minier and maybe Thorpe might be the exceptions).  Most of the guys are in low A or lower, are too old for the level they are at or had disappointing seasons in low levels.  Last year, I think we had guys like May, Polanco, Santana and Vargas in our 11-20 range.  Much better depth last year.  And clearly, that's part of the ebb and flow of prospect lists but outside of our top 6, I'm not really excited about anyone in the minors like I was about May or Polanco.

     

    On the plus side, May and Polanco will be outside the top 6, so you can be excited about the same guys. The difference this year is that the elite guys should finally graduate with 4 of the top 5 guys possibly making mlb contributions this year (assuming health for Berrios). The 11-20 guys are primarily those that will move into the top 10 this year as jokin pointed out. They are still a year away and probably about half of these guys will be looking really good next year, we just aren't sure which ones yet.

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    that's kind of our point, birdwatcher.....those prospects look better now, but those other prospects looked good in the past. MOST prospects don't work out, so quit being afraid to trade them for actual MLB players.......

     

    So this raises the question of which mlb players do you think they could get for the guys on this list? I really think you overvalue the return prospects can bring back.

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    So this raises the question of which mlb players do you think they could get for the guys on this list? I really think you overvalue the return prospects can bring back.

     

    I'm talking prospects in general, not this list. This team has pretty much never traded a legit prospect for a proven MLB player, with the exception of Shannon Stewart, I think.

     

    It is the concept of trading prospects I'm talking about, not this part of the list.

     

    If you have the "deepest system", you have an excess to trade from. 

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    I'm talking prospects in general, not this list. This team has pretty much never traded a legit prospect for a proven MLB player, with the exception of Shannon Stewart, I think.

     

    It is the concept of trading prospects I'm talking about, not this part of the list.

     

    If you have the "deepest system", you have an excess to trade from. 

    Stewart and Castillo.  

     

    I think the Twins could/should listen on a few guys. Jose Berrios or Alex Meyer both have question marks but could bring back something in return, if the Twins were so inclined.  I'll be honest and say that there's no realistic scenario where I'd be ok with Sano or Buxton being moved.  But they do have some depth and if the return is a someone under a  few years of control - either due to age or his contract, it's a solid idea.  But it would be hard to find a solid trade that fits both teams.  For example, arguably the best 10 LFers this year are Brantley, Gordon, Yelich, Marte, Upton, Cruz, Holliday, Cespedes, Gardner and Smith.  Gordon, Brantley and Marte aren't going anywhere - they are key guys on playoff teams.  Yelich is 22 and shouldn't be movable, even for Miami.  Upton, Holliday, Smith and Gardner are all on the wrong side of 30.  Cruz is a FA. Cespedes?  Maybe Boston would listen.  

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    Ramos for Capps...

     

    I always forget that one.......how about, TR doesn't do it much? Not sure why I always forget that one.

     

    That's all off topic, though. I like the list, and it is probably better than previous lists in this range, but no one screams they are making the majors (other than Hu.....) as an everyday player or starting pitcher. There are players here, imo, that will be on rosters for multiple years though. If only we could accurately predict which of them.....

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    I'm talking prospects in general, not this list. This team has pretty much never traded a legit prospect for a proven MLB player, with the exception of Shannon Stewart, I think.

     

    It is the concept of trading prospects I'm talking about, not this part of the list.

     

    If you have the "deepest system", you have an excess to trade from. 

    The Twins traded Bobby Kielty for Stewart who was already on the big league roster, so I'm not sure it has ever happened.

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