Twins Select Tyler Jay Sixth Overall

Hrbowski · June 9, 2015

I am not a fan of this pick either but all I have heard is Jay has an easy delivery.

On an unrelated note, anybody catch the name of the pitcher who relieved Jay in todays game?

I did, would be great if the Twins draft him.

drivlikejehu · June 9, 2015

Jay isn't real exciting but there weren't any great alternatives remaining. Perkins is a pretty good comp, though Jay is more athletic and has a more varied repertoire that may help him remain a starter. Jay won't throw mid-90s as a starter, but low 90s isn't bad if he can locate it.

PseudoSABR · June 9, 2015

You sure that's what they drafted?

Jay was consistently projected into the Top 10/Top 5 by nearly all publications, so the notion that most see him--or even some see him as a only reliever--is just false.

Edited June 9, 2015 by PseudoSABR

nicksaviking · June 9, 2015

Jay isn't real exciting but there weren't any great alternatives remaining. Perkins is a pretty good comp, though Jay is more athletic and has a more varied repertoire that may help him remain a starter. Jay won't throw mid-90s as a starter, but low 90s isn't bad if he can locate it.

Low 90s for the sixth overall pick and 2nd overall pitcher?

Reports of him keeping his velocity through his long relief outings better be accurate. No team should use a first round pick on a starter with low 90s velocity, let alone a top ten pick.

PseudoSABR · June 9, 2015

No team should use a first round pick on a starter with low 90s velocity, let alone a top ten pick.

Yet, every journalistic prognosticator predicated that a Top 10 team would draft him...

It's not just the Twins who disagree with your assessment, I think it's everyone in the industry.

drivlikejehu · June 9, 2015

Low 90s for the sixth overall pick and 2nd overall pitcher?

Reports of him keeping his velocity through his long relief outings better be accurate. No team should use a first round pick on a starter with low 90s velocity, let alone a top ten pick.

He just pitched today, and was low 90s. That's fine for a lefty if the rest of the skills are good enough. If he turns into a #2 starter what would be the grounds for complaint?

Of course, it's far from guaranteed that happens, but his velocity isn't really a downside.

nicksaviking · June 9, 2015

Yet, every journalistic prognosticator predicated that a Top 10 team would draft him...

It's not just the Twins who disagree with your assessment, I think it's everyone in the industry.

I'll be happy with the pick if he still has a mid 90s fastball as a starter, but there's no way everyone in the industry thinks a low 90s fastball is a good investment at number 6. Perhaps everyone in the industry thought he'd go in the top ten because the Twins pick in the top ten and historically don't give a crap about their starters velocity.

nicksaviking · June 9, 2015

He just pitched today, and was low 90s. That's fine for a lefty if the rest of the skills are good enough. If he turns into a #2 starter what would be the grounds for complaint?

Of course, it's far from guaranteed that happens, but his velocity isn't really a downside.

The downside is the Twins basically only have one avenue to find some desperately needed velocity for the rotation, and they once again may have passed. Edited June 9, 2015 by nicksaviking

Kwak · June 9, 2015

I believe they wasted this selection. Relief pitchers don't need to be drafted this early. There are glaring needs for OF who can hit, play defense, and throw. The mess of free-swinging, one-dimensional types of late suggests that both corner OF spots are available. Then there is catching. Pitching? Reach for a projectable starter, someone with the frame that says "he could be ...".

RedBull34 · June 9, 2015

Ceiling: Ace LHP

Floor: Dominant Relief Pitcher.

Plus Fastball Slider and Change.

Sounds like a fantastic pick.

ALessKosherScott · June 9, 2015

I am not a fan of this pick either but all I have heard is Jay has an easy delivery.

On an unrelated note, anybody catch the name of the pitcher who relieved Jay in todays game?

The Baseball America scouting report that Bob quoted earlier disagrees.

"He ranked second in the nation in ERA and was overpowering hitters with a 92-96 mph fastball from a quick-armed, high-energy delivery with a long stride and deception.

The video shows its more Shooter Hunt bad than Adam Johnson bad. He has an inconsistent landing point and his arm is quicker than his legs. There's also a slight recoil as he releases.

The stuff and command are their to start. But the question is will the deliver hold up to 180 innings, and what happens to his command as they tone him down.

Hrbowski · June 9, 2015

I believe they wasted this selection. Relief pitchers don't need to be drafted this early. There are glaring needs for OF who can hit, play defense, and throw. The mess of free-swinging, one-dimensional types of late suggests that both corner OF spots are available. Then there is catching. Pitching? Reach for a projectable starter, someone with the frame that says "he could be ...".

Can't draft for needs this early, it was a great pick in my opinion.

nicksaviking · June 9, 2015

In fairness, I'm probably biased against the pick mostly due to the team's track record with pitchers. I desperately want an ace but I need to see one at the MLB level before I believe they are capable of drafting one. They haven't drafted one since Viola in 1981.

I'm ready to embrace him though. Let's do this Jay. I'll be supportive and hope the team knows he's the next Chris Sale.

PseudoSABR · June 9, 2015

For clarity's sake, [redacted]. The video is evidently from May of this year; see below.

Edited June 9, 2015 by PseudoSABR

nicksaviking · June 9, 2015

For clarity's sake, that video is more than a year old.

As long as the team doesn't make him shorten his stride.

ALessKosherScott · June 9, 2015

For clarity's sake, that video is more than a year old.

Date is wrong in the video. It's from 5/2/15

PseudoSABR · June 9, 2015

Date is wrong in the video. It's from 5/2/15

Thanks, I was wondering.

DocBauer · June 9, 2015

Really happy with this pick. Three different LISP options, all three with risks, and all three with seemingly legit front of the rotation stuff.

There is also real need for a quality LHSP with some real stuff. If starting doesn't work out, we have a top port side relief prospect. You need those too. Especially in a draft that doesn't appear overwhelming, this is a great choice with a real fall back option.

DaveTMpls · June 9, 2015

While I have no real opinion on this pick, drafting for need is the biggest mistake one can make in baseball.

Based on his radio interview during Twins game tonight, Terry Ryan is in full agreement with me. After his pre-draft tour of the minors, he said Twins had a real lack of LHP in minors. No ****, Sherlock.

nicksaviking · June 9, 2015

Based on his radio interview during Twins game tonight, Terry Ryan is in full agreement with me. After his pre-draft tour of the minors, he said Twins had a real lack of LHP in minors. No ****, Sherlock.

There you have it, Brock said Ryan is a huge mistake!

h2oface · June 9, 2015

Who knows, eh? The speed he will throw as a starter is a guess no matter if you are a scout or a fan. I like that he is a college pitcher that you don't have to wait 5 to 6 years to maybe help the club. I am not a fan of selecting high school arms. I might have liked Fulmer better, but here's to hoping it works out and sometime in the future adds a fine lefty to the rotation.

DaveTMpls · June 9, 2015

It just worked out that he's a lefty but the Twins took him as they believed he was the best player available.

I don't believe that for a minute. Ryan said tonight they had Jay top-10. Ryan decided that was close enough.

Captain Hindsight · June 9, 2015

The Baseball America scouting report that Bob quoted earlier disagrees.

"He ranked second in the nation in ERA and was overpowering hitters with a 92-96 mph fastball from a quick-armed, high-energy delivery with a long stride and deception.

I do not think John Manual is implying his delivery is "high effort" but it creates high energy, which would collaborate with what others are saying.

For example, here is a quote from a scouting report on MLB.com:

"He generates that heat with athleticism and a quick arm rather than an excessive amount of effort in his delivery."

and another from D1 Baseball:

"He’s got the loose, easy delivery..."

and finally here is a bit by John Manual of Baseball America, talking about Jays delivery in relation to Fulmers:

"...Jay does it easier, does it cleaner."

Edited June 9, 2015 by Captain Hindsight

DaveTMpls · June 9, 2015

Really happy that the Twins picked need (LHSP) for once, instead of someone's kid or grand kid.

On the other hand, I don't think that Jay was the best LHP arm available.

He has started a grand total of one (1) game in College, but he has a plus to plus plus FB that sits in the mid 90s and peaks to the high 90s (as a reliever) which he commands and controls well, a plus slider, and an average plus hammer curve. Pretty sure that he will learn the change in this system now and he might have success. Endurance is the key here. Speaking of, people are going to say that he is too short to be an effective starter. He is Jimmy Key's size, but profiles more of a strikeout pitcher. I'd take Jimmy Key with 30% more strike outs any spot on a draft.

Not a bad pick, and thrilled that the Twins picked a LHP (finally.)

Remind me again which LHP you liked better? I read mixed reviews of both Aiken and Allard.

Brock Beauchamp · June 9, 2015

Based on his radio interview during Twins game tonight, Terry Ryan is in full agreement with me. After his pre-draft tour of the minors, he said Twins had a real lack of LHP in minors. No ****, Sherlock.

If they drafted for need, it's a mistake. Thankfully, it's pretty well known that the Twins take a BPA draft strategy so it's likely they went BPA and it happened to be a lefty starter.

The earliest this guy will reach Minnesota is late 2017 and even that's a reach because he needs to be stretched out as a full time starter.

Teams shouldn't draft for "need" 24+ months out. That's just stupid.

Mike Sixel · June 9, 2015

A reliever.......not sure how to feel about that. Good luck to them, they have exactly one SP in the rotation they drafted......so let's hope something has changed.

DaveTMpls · June 9, 2015

Not a fan of this pick. I like him as a reliever, but you don't take a guy this high and keep him as a reliever. We're going to ruin him trying to turn him into a starter.

Yeah, like we ruined Berrios.

notoriousgod71 · June 9, 2015

What makes people believe he will take the "Finnegan" route?

Other fast track Twins pitchers in the past have been Gutierrez, Wimmers, Burdi. None of them have made it to the big leagues and the guy they stated could be on the roster immediately is out of baseball (to my knowledge).

I do not have any faith that this organization knows how to construct or utilize a pitching staff.

Mike Sixel · June 9, 2015

What makes people believe he will take the "Finnegan" route?

Other fast track Twins pitchers in the past have been Gutierrez, Wimmers, Burdi. None of them have made it to the big leagues and the guy they stated could be on the roster immediately is out of baseball (to my knowledge).

I do not have any faith that this organization knows how to construct or utilize a pitching staff.

I share your skepticism that we see this guy any time soon.

Steven Buhr · June 9, 2015

If you wanted a pitcher, it sounds like you were choosing between starters who scouts project as possible relievers or Jay, who scouts say could start. Given those choices, I guess I don't mind the guy who hasn't had a college coach abusing the hell out of his arm.

I'm anxious to see him work in E'town or (better yet) CR!

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