Twins Select RHP Tyler Kinley In Rule 5 Draft (Lose Burdi to Phillies, Bard to Angels)

I don't know what to think of this year's Rule 5 moves.  If I were pretty sure Burdi would be gone and was looking at the player they selected, I would have added Burdi to the 40-man and not taken anyone in the draft.  But I don't know what the Twins know, about both Burdi and Kinley.  

What puzzles me more was their moves from a year ago.  If they were so high on Haley, why didn't they take him with the #1 pick.  Never did understand the logic to take the guy they did, then do the trade with the Angels to get Haley.  Would have made sense if the Angels really wanted the #1 pick and sweetened the pot with another prospect.  Still can't figure out the logic for that one.

Burdi was selected #3. Kinley was, I think, the 13th of 15 prospects selected (many teams passed, some on more than half the selected prospects). While it's not unreasonable to think the Twins should have protected Burdi (I think they should have), it's also not unreasonable to think their selection of Kinley is a worthwhile experiment. First of all, nothing says Molitor and Falvey have to make to same mistake with Kinley that many of us think they made with Haley. Maybe they learned from that experience. They'll probably have a shorter leash with Kinley anyway, for the simple reason that they have more and better candidates in 2018 than they did going into spring training in 2017. Secondly, we don't know what we're talking about when we draw conclusions about a guy like Kinley based on a few minor league stats. It may end up meaning nothing, but Fred Guerrero's reports from the Dominican Winter League might also hint at some positive development that give the organization reason to think Kinley is capable of more.

They're both flawed players. IMO if they're taking a chance on either I would much rather have Burdi and his injury history vs. a guy who has very little if any success above A+  in 5 minor league seasons. I hope they do have a much shorter leash with Kinley than they did with Haley but that also makes the decision more confusing. If the experiment lasts no longer than March then they almost certainly would've been better off using that roster spot on Burdi, and if they were still as down on him as they are now they easily could've tried to sneak him through waivers and no matter the outcome they would've been no worse off than they are at this moment. 

I don't understand how 5 years of minor league stats isn't enough to formulate an opinion on Kinley but 2 months in the Dominican Winter League might be. 

 I'd also guess that there would be a better chance of exposing players to the Rule V and keeping them than adding them to the 40-man and being forced to remove them later exposing them to waivers.

I was fine with them leaving Burdi and Bard off if they were going to sign free agents that were going to help the team get to the next level but Signing a pitcher that can't help this year and then grabbing a guy in the rule V that might not even make the team leaves a bad taste in my mouth.  They had to think Bard would slip through or that they just had too much redundancy in relief options to care because I just can't wrap my brain around the decision.

I realize I don't know a tenth of what they know about various players but clogging two of the four spots disappoints me.   It makes me think they are going in to this season trusting the young guys in the system and quite frankly that scares me a little bit.  I thought the plan was 4 strong veteran adds so what ultimately happened threw me for a loop.

 

 

I don't understand how 5 years of minor league stats isn't enough to formulate an opinion on Kinley but 2 months in the Dominican Winter League might be. 

Because the one looking just at a few stats is you, and the people looking at the player are long-standing, proven professional scouts who are also armed with a lot more data points than you?

Brad Steil was interviewed and mentioned that they have "depth" on Kinley, having seen him often over the course of those five years. He acknowledged Fred Guerrero's observations, but kind of downplayed that in favor of just generally saying their people see some good things.

I'd agree with you on the surface though, that Burdi looks to have the better chance, but let's not pretend that the decision involved a straight swap of the two.

Because the one looking just at a few stats is you, and the people looking at the player are long-standing, proven professional scouts who are also armed with a lot more data points than you?

 

Brad Steil was interviewed and mentioned that they have "depth" on Kinley, having seen him often over the course of those five years. He acknowledged Fred Guerrero's observations, but kind of downplayed that in favor of just generally saying their people see some good things.

 

I'd agree with you on the surface though, that Burdi looks to have the better chance, but let's not pretend that the decision involved a straight swap of the two.

If we're defaulting to authority then we can never question any decision this team makes...

You're right, it also involved Bard, another pitcher with a more successful track record than Kinley. 

I don't understand the logic here. We go from losing two promising relievers that we could have put on the 40 man roster, to picking up a guy that we HAVE to put on the 25 man roster. Where is the logic in that?

If we're defaulting to authority then we can never question any decision this team makes...

 

You're right, it also involved Bard, another pitcher with a more successful track record than Kinley. 

Questioning is one thing. Like you, I hate losing both those guys and question the decision.

Concluding that it's a bad decision, like you have? Are you not "defaulting" to your own authority?

Let's let it play out. It'll be interesting.

Burdi did not figure into the Twins plans for next year and the first year back from TJ surgery can be dicey.  May get him back, though am much more worried now that he is with the Pirates.

Bard I was not happy with as I thought he might have a chance to help this year.  

We will see.

Questioning is one thing. Like you, I hate losing both those guys and question the decision.

 

Concluding that it's a bad decision, like you have? Are you not "defaulting" to your own authority?

 

Let's let it play out. It'll be interesting.

There's a difference between holding an opinion based on available data, and trying to invalidate an opinion because the person holding it doesn't belong to a particular group. 

Hopefully it plays out in a way that doesn't hurt the Twins. 

It has everything to do with the Rule V draft. Those players selected have to stay on the 25 man roster. The draft IS roster management. 

 

You read my post that said the Rule V draft could be used effectively right? Clogging the 25th spot with a pitcher who has limited minor league success and no options is hardly practical. 

Everything you said here has to do with roster management. Keeping him on the 25 man roster and not returning him because he isn't what they thought he might be is exactly what I am talking about as a roster management problem.

Everything you said here has to do with roster management. Keeping him on the 25 man roster and not returning him because he isn't what they thought he might be is exactly what I am talking about as a roster management problem.

Roster management that is necessitated by participation in the Rule 5. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

1.  I think they should have given Luke Bard innings last year at the big league level.    The guy just turned 27 so they should have pushed him up with at least a September callup to evaluate him at that level.  Arm injuries have killed his career.  

2.  Swapping Kinley for Bard is probably even.  Two 27 year old guys getting a chance to get out of their current situations.  If you were to play the odds, it is unlikely that either guy makes the big league organizations of their Rule V drafting team.  I do think Bard is the better prospect but because of his injuries it is limited.  

3.  I think the same is true with Nick Burdi and most likely he will be back in Minnesota.  

But here is the truth.  I wish Burdi and Bard well.  I hope they both become great MLB pitchers.  I doubt they get the chance with the Twins organization so if I am glad other organizations will give them a chance.

Roster management that is necessitated by participation in the Rule 5. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

That is a pretty weak link. Every player on the 25 man is part of roster management. If the FO isn't willing to move on from players for a variety of reasons then they have a roster management problem.

That is a pretty weak link. Every player on the 25 man is part of roster management. If the FO isn't willing to move on from players for a variety of reasons then they have a roster management problem.

Those decisions have to be made because of the Rule V pick(s). That isn't a "weak link." You can agree or disagree with selections but pretending that managing a roster, 40 or 25 man, isn't part of participating in the draft is at best illogical.

Looks like Bard has a decent chance of making the Angels bullpen based on an article posted in mlbtraderumors this morning.  Could be a fail (1 item) for this front office.  Never liked losing Bard, but he was never healthily and now seems to be coming into his potential. 

Hey.... Kohl Stewart is safe and still in the org!

 

Still Crushing!

Not excited about that.  Kohl is nothing more than a warm body that can throw at this point.  BUST.