Twins Minor League Report (6/15): Sano Wants to Join Buxton

Over his last 37 games, Sano is hitting .309/.388/.574 with 21 walks against 36k.  Those numbers are pretty close to what Buxton had hit over his last 42 minor league games.

I'd certainly be willing to let him DH over Vargas at this point.

A month sounds about right.  There's a penchant here in TD-land to slice and dice statistics.  Sano's last 10 games were really good!  Are they sustainable over the course of a month?  I'd like to see if Sano has really knocked off all the rust from the TJ surgery.

Over his last 37 games, Sano is hitting .309/.388/.574 with 21 walks against 36k.  Those numbers are pretty close to what Buxton had hit over his last 42 minor league games.

 

I'd certainly be willing to let him DH over Vargas at this point.

It's more than just the last 10 games, though... or even the last 37 games.

I've documented, and just updated, in the Sano How Soon is Now? thread that he's been performing as the best in the Southern League since April 30, as well as vs. the best performer over the whole season. And the power output is surging.

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18548-miguel-sano-how-soon-is-now/page-11?do=findComment&comment=354749

Sano's numbers since April 30:

PA 168 Slash: .303/.396/.577/(.973) ISO .274 XBH 20 HR 9

Schwarber's numbers, 4/30-6/14:

PA 172 Slash: 295/.427/.525/(.952) ISO .230 XBH 14 HR 9

Schwarber is going to be DHing vs. the Twins this weekend. Why not make it Sano vs. Schwarber?

I'm not questioning the fact that Sano is on a roll.  However, you can't overlook the seasonal comparison between the 2.

 

Sano's numbers for the season:         .257  .358  .505  .863

Schwaber's numbers for the season:  .320  .438  .579  1.017  [holy crap, he's a catcher, too!]

 

No knock on Sano, but based on the totality of his stats, Schwaber forced the Cubs to promote him, if only for 6 days.

You really have to throw out everything before April 30. The guy was coming off of an 18 month layoff from live pitching. Despite the lost season he's currently eclipsing Schwarber over 40-some games, with increasingly stronger power output.

Sano, like Schwarber doesn't have a position yet at the major league level. But also like Schwarber, he, and circumstances, have forced the Twins to take a look at his hitting tool in the lower-stress DH role, plus giving him a chance to see what he needs to work on, both at the plate, and in the field.

I don't think this is a time to compare season stats in different minor leagues when Sano literally missed a full year.  That he is hitting this well, after shaking off the rust, is amazing and really bodes well for his future at the ML level.  He's an elite hitter.

I don't think this is a time to compare season stats in different minor leagues when Sano literally missed a full year.  That he is hitting this well, after shaking off the rust, is amazing and really bodes well for his future at the ML level.  He's an elite hitter.

Huh??? What comp???? Sano and Schwarber both play in the Southern League.

Huh??? What comp???? Sano and Schwarber both play in the Southern League.

My bad, I thought the other guy was in the PCL for some reason.

Very good point, I hadn't thought of that. Vargas may be a switch hitter with a bit higher average, but his power numbers are nothing compared to Sano's. As a DH, you could have Sano hit forth right away, and work in his off time with Gene Glynn on fielding. Then gradually get him some time at 3rd or 1st base.

+1 That's The Ticket!

So, you're going to compare Sano's partial to Schwarber's, what exactly?

 

Timeline:

Surgery 3/12/2014

throwing program by 6/20,

7/7 light throwing

8/18 swinging bat

8/26 full BP

2/19/2015 reported to be fully recovered.  

5/1/2015  Lookouts hitting coach Chad Allen ""Early in the year, he's really tried to do too much," Allen said, per MLB.com. "He's got a lot of strength and everybody that faces him knows he's a strong man and can hit the ball a long way. At the same time, he himself is trying to do too much.

"We hit early today and just really tried to slow him down and let the ball come to him. Let him understand he doesn't have to exert himself just to hit the ball hard."

 

Allen was encouraged with Sano's approach Thursday, especially when he hit his home run.

"Tonight was a great judgment on what he was thinking, that he wasn't trying to do too much," Allen said. "He took an 80-percent swing with two strikes on a fastball in and hit a home run. It's just a matter of him relaxing, calming down a bit and letting the game come to him."

 

In other words, Sano was healthy, was over swinging, took advice,understood it and executed on that advice and improved.  The stats still count.

Uhh, you really didn't refute much here. Sano hadn't faced live pitching for 18 months. In addition, I posted on the Sano thread, after seeing him play in early May, Sano had not yet fully adapted to the conditions at the home ballpark. The park has a 20 foot OF fence and sits atop a hill with prevailing winds blowing in from LF and CF. In the game I was at, Sano had 4 hard hit fly balls right at the wall, clearly knocked down by the wind.

As I documented in the other thread, since then, Sano and no doubt, Chad Allen, have put in significant adjustments to his approach- his FB% has dropped from 44% in April to 30% in May/June, while his LD% has soared from 12% in April to 26% in May/June. Meanwhile, his OPS was a paltry .684 in April, while it's .983 in June. The pitchers have tried to adjust to his adjustments, to no avail- Sano was getting 51% of his pitches in the zone in April, in June it's down to 34%, and yet his production has soared, along with a return towards his career power numbers- which have gone from ISO .222 in April, ISO .253 in May, to ISO .275 in June.

In short, Sano is back, with a vengeance, and has slightly outperformed Schwarber since April 30.

I'm not sure the Sano Schwarber comps work for one obvious reason.  The cubs don't carry a DH.  Schwarber is up right now because he can hit and their bench options aren't good options.  Not sure how this is the fault of the Twins for not doing the same when we have Vargas there, who also needs to learn major league pitching.  I fail to see how dumping Vargas for Sano would be good at all in the long term for the Twins.  It might satisfy a few impatient folks, but at the end of the day, I don't think our DH production is going to change much from Vargas to Sano (it might actually drop since Vargas has been doing well at a higher level and has major league experience).

Looks like Paul Molitor tends to disagree with you, or perhaps he's one of the "impatient folks", too?

http://www.startribune.com/miguel-sano-could-be-called-up-soon-molitor-says/307657841/

And actually the Schwarber comps works nicely, both don't have an established position yet, both appear to be looking at the options for each, and possibly considering if someone blocking each could be replaced, with a reultant net upgrade from either.

Oops, left out: 

the part where he faced live pitching during those BP sessions [granted, some of those pitchers were recovering from injuries ] and the part where he was fully ready to participate in spring training, 3/2015.  My bad.  It was 12 months from surgery to ST. I account his poor BA to showing off, more than anything.  Nothing wrong with that, as long as it works

Yes, Sano out performed Schwarber since April 30 slightly.  I still argue that for [not 100% health, not seeing enough live BP, being a dope and swinging from his jock strap, whatever] reason, I'm still picking Schwarber way over Sano if for no other reason than he was healthy all season with incredible stats.

Not disputing that Schwarber has had the superior season. He definitely has, great scouting by the Cubs for defying convention in last year's draft. My point was more along the lines that since Epstein is giving his guy a shot at a taste of the show, and with Sano matching or surpassing him since he's gotten himself going, that it might be worth a more considered look at Sano sooner rather than later, as well. And since then, it seems like the Twins are ready to pull the trigger fairly soon.

In the long run, though, I'm still pretty confident that Sano is likely going to prove that he's the superior prospect