Twins Minor League Report (5/7): Berrios On The Brink

Anyone have thoughts as to what the next step should be for Stewart and when that should take place? What he is doing now isn't working. He has a WHIP of 2. He had a 1.47 last year at AA that through smoke and mirrors (as far as I can tell) translated to a 3.03 ERA. He simply isn't effective and has not been at AA really at all.

He was a bust. Really bad pick. That's why I'm not a fan of drafting high school pitchers in the top ten picks. There's just so little data on them and they aren't physically mature yet. Also, TINSTAAPP.

LaMonte Wade's last 18 games:

.420/.557/.680

4 doubles, 3 homeruns, 17 walks, 11 strikeouts

I love me some LaMonte.

Mitch Garver seems to be playing pretty sparingly. Anybody have any insights into why that might be?

They've been splitting playing time 50/50 between him and JRM for most of the season.

Recently it's probably just playing the hot bat. JRM is heating up, and Garver is cooling down a bit.

Yeah, I knew he'd be splitting time with Murphy at catcher. I'm just a bit surprised Garver is not playing more at 1B/DH, especially with Park & Vargas not currently on the roster.

Twins first round draft picks that were high school pitchers, since 1990 and their performance at AA:

2013, Kohl Stewart (4 th overall); age 21-22 - 3.57 ERA in 116 IP so far

2012, Jose Berrios (32); age 20-21- 3.23 ERA 

2004, Jay Rainville (39); age 22-23 - 5.70 ERA in 192 IP, injury problems, never advanced above AA

2004, Kyle Waldrop (25); stint one, age 21 - 5.34 ERA in 59 IP, injured, missed all of next season. stint two, age 23 - 1.47 ERA in 55 IP

1992, Dan Serafini (26); age 21 - 3.38 ERA in 162 IP

1990, Todd Ritchie (12); age 21-22 - 3.86 ERA, but limited to 63 IP due to injuries; never really did well in the minors after that but did manage to log over 800 IP at the MLB level 

The 3 who weren't severely injured, graduated AA by age 22.  And they all did better in their second season at AA.  Stewart is 2.5 runs WORSE so far.

I feel comfortable sticking with my opinion.  

If Stewart was such an enormous project perhaps he should not have been taken with the 4th overall pick.

PS: Here's your "logic and numbers"

Barring an injury or mechanical thing, just let him continue. He's young and he's already dominated the low minors. Even if he has to repeat AA next year, he'd be young for the level.

So, if I am understanding this correctly, the suggestion here is to let Stewart pitch all of this year in AA - no matter if he shows improvement or not and then possibly all of next season, again not showing improvement is not mentioned as a condition.  By the end of the 2018 season, Stewart will be 24 and still possibly not advanced beyond AA.   A lot of you are okay with that?

One looming problem with a slow approach or an approach that doesn't try something different is his roster status.  If I am not mistaken, he will need to be added to the 40 man roster after this season or be exposed to the rule 5 draft.  Unless he takes big steps forward the rest of this season, I don't see how the Twins can possibly use a 40 man spot on him.  It may not be an issue, because with where he is right now, no team could hide him on their staff all season.

So, I guess my original question remains.  At what point should the Twins try something different if there is no improvement?  Another couple starts?  June?  All Star Break? I truly can't imagine running him out there every 5 days (okay in the minors that's a tad more flexible) all year if he continues this way.  It could very well be an injury. But, he wasn't that good last year.  Sure, the ERA from last year looks nice.  But the peripherals were terrible.  BB rate, K rate, etc.  He doesn't give up many HR.  That's certainly a positive.  Looking at his splits from 2016, he actually pitched better with runners on than with no one on base. No doubt that helped keep his ERA low. That's exactly the opposite problem that Berrios has had.  Could it truly be as simple as not finding a proper balance or release point from the full wind up?

Relief pitchers also play an important roll in a game.  Please add them to your player of the day segment.

They aren't leaving Stewart off teh 40 man. I'll bet any amount of money on that, barring some kind of injury or attitude thing.

There are currently 22 pitchers on the Twins 40 man roster (plus 3 on the 60 day DL).  I will assume that will be the case when the roster is set this November.

These are the guys on it now, including the DL guys, that are pretty certain to be on it in November:

1) Jose Berrios

2) JT Chargois

3) Tyler Duffey

4) Pjil Hughes

5) Felix Jorge

6) Trevor May

7) Adalberto Mejia

8) Mason Melotakis

9) Ryan O'Rourke

10) Taylor Rogers

11) Fernando Romero

12) Randy Rosario

13) Ervin Santana

Duffey and Santana would be the least certain of that group.   In Duffey's case, it will be dictated by his performance.  In Ervin's, based on whether he is traded.  Of course, if Santana is traded, it seems pretty likely that whatever pitcher he is traded for will be on the 40 man.

These players are on the bubble:

Buddy Boshers

Kyle Gibson

Justin Haley

Ryan Pressly

Hector Santiago

And that doesn't even include guys that are almost certainly goners like  Belisle, Breslow, Kintzler, Perkins, Rucinski and Tepesch.  While I would be pretty surprised if all 5 of the guys listed above are back, I'd be pretty surprised if all were gone too.  My guess is that two are back.

As best as I can tell (and I could certainly be wrong), these minor league pitchers will need to be added to the 40 man roster no later than after this season - some could be added before that obviously.

14) Nick Burdi

15) Stephen Gonsalves

16) Trevor Hildenberger

17) Jake Reed

18) Kohl Stewart

Technically, that list would include Lewis Thorpe as well.  But seeing as how he has never pitched above low A ball and hasn't pitched anywhere since 2014, I figure he will be exposed - of course low A ball is where Johan Santana had last pitched before the Twins plucked him.  There could be more of which I am not aware.  Anyone?

So, if the Twins do indeed retain 2 of the "bubble" pitchers, that would put 20 pitchers on the 40 man.  Not a lot of extra space.  Indeed, they may need to cut down the number of pitchers for some position players.  Park is still under contract through 2019.  You would have to think they will give him another shot at some point, but Falvey may also say "not my problem" and convince Pohlad to eat the $ 8 mil or whatever he is still owed.  18 position players on the 40 man seems dangerously low when you have 12 or 13 of them active on the 25 man roster.  Not a lot of wiggle room in case of injury.

My point in all this is that unless Stewart does in fact turn it around this season, he might very well be exposed to the rule 5 draft.

No, it costs them a 25 man roster spot for a full season.

Not if they send him back. Which I would guess was meant by take a flier in ST.

We'll have to disagree I guess on how much evaluation can be done in ST.

What was the evaluation of what Gibson was going to look like this year based on ST?

 

Ok, theoretically someone could take a flyer on Stewart. But right now that would be crazy.

And even in the small chance someone does, the odds that you don't get him returned is tiny.

I put little stock into any ST stats other than maybe the last week or so. Prior to that there are so many non-major leaguers playing the stats are pretty meaningless. Also, every player has their own pace of getting ready for the season. The only time ST numbers are meaningful is if you have a rookie trying to win a roster spot. How does he look vs MLB competition? And even then you really have to almost be there in person to judge it.