Twins Minor League Report (4/14): Miracle Bats Bust Out

I have been waiting for that All-Star lineup at High A to break out and they finally did.  Once those bats get rolling it is going to tough that group.  

All the guys I gave up on last year seem to be off to hot starts (i.e. Cabbage, Blankenhorn, Diaz, even English and Whiutefield seem to be surging).  Here's hoping they keep it up and make this prospect group even better.

I was at the Pensacola game. The stadium radar gun seemed legit, with Cutura sitting 88-90 and the Jumbo Shrimp starter in the same neighborhood.

Poppen sat 95-96 out of the pen with the fastball, and a hard slider 85-86. He has a low 3/4 delivery and good movement, but had so-so command. With some fairly modest improvement, he looks like an MLB middle reliever to me.

Arraez had really nice PAs. He has a good eye and made some hard contact. He looked more athletic than I was expecting.

I often demonstrate how the Twins minor league system is much more conservative in player movement than other organizations.  Lots of people disagree, but I want to show side by side two players that pitched in yesterday's AA game:  Devin Smeltzer and Cody Stashak.   

Here are links to their minor league stats to follow along:

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=656970#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664054#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

Both players were college draft picks.  Stashak by the Twins in the 13th round in 2013 and Smeltzer by the Dodgers' in the 5th round one year later.

They both pitched in their draft short season in the Rookie League.  They both began their first full professional season in A ball.  After 10 starts with a 3.78 ERA Smeltzer was promoted to A+ ball and made 15 more starts at that level.  Stashak was likewise promoted to A+ level but after 17 starts at Cedar Rapids and only made 3 starts at A+ level.

It is here were they diverged.  In his 3rd professional season, Smeltzer was promoted to AA and when the Twins acquired him in the Dozier trade they kept him at that level. 

In Stashak's 3rd professional season the Twins returned him to Ft Myers to repeat A+ level, calling him up to AA to make 3 relief appearances.

In Stashak's 4th season the Twins again started him in A+ ball, but this time moving him to AA after just 2 appearances to AA were Smeltzer would join him later after the trade. 

Of course, the Twins being the Twins, the kept Smeltzer at AA in his 4th and he is joined by Stashak, starting his 5th campaing.   But Stashak is almost a full year older than Smeltzer and is pitching at the same level with significantly less experience at the level.  Their minor league performance is very similar, if anything Stashak has a slightly better statistical profile.  

But, I would argue that if the players would have switched the teams that drafted them, Stashak would have advanced faster rather than Smeltzer,  In Smeltzer's career, brief as it is, the Dodger's advanced him at least a level every season.  The first season that Smeltzer did not advance a level from the year previous, he was in the Twins organization.  

Stashak followed the Twins normal:  repeating levels and slow promotions.  

I get that some will claim I am "cherry picking", and I used this example just because both players pitched in the AA game yesterday.  But, the fact is this is a consistent pattern the Twins organization uses.

I was at the Pensacola game. The stadium radar gun seemed legit, with Cutura sitting 88-90 and the Jumbo Shrimp starter in the same neighborhood.

 

Poppen sat 95-96 out of the pen with the fastball, and a hard slider 85-86. He has a low 3/4 delivery and good movement, but had so-so command. With some fairly modest improvement, he looks like an MLB middle reliever to me.

 

Arraez had really nice PAs. He has a good eye and made some hard contact. He looked more athletic than I was expecting.

Thanks for the first hand report.

Good hearing about Arraez.  I have a question for everyone hear at TD.  Will Arraez hit for a .400 average at AA in 2019?  Would like to see TD do a poll to see how many of us think it is possible.

Also great seeing Rortvedt hitting for some power.  That and pitch framing, which Seth pointed out, appear to be two hurdles he needs to overcome to join Garver behind the plate for the Twins late next year or in 2021.

I often demonstrate how the Twins minor league system is much more conservative in player movement than other organizations.  Lots of people disagree, but I want to show side by side two players that pitched in yesterday's AA game:  Devin Smeltzer and Cody Stashak.   

 

Here are links to their minor league stats to follow along:

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=656970#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664054#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

Both players were college draft picks.  Stashak by the Twins in the 13th round in 2013 and Smeltzer by the Dodgers' in the 5th round one year later.

 

They both pitched in their draft short season in the Rookie League.  They both began their first full professional season in A ball.  After 10 starts with a 3.78 ERA Smeltzer was promoted to A+ ball and made 15 more starts at that level.  Stashak was likewise promoted to A+ level but after 17 starts at Cedar Rapids and only made 3 starts at A+ level.

 

It is here were they diverged.  In his 3rd professional season, Smeltzer was promoted to AA and when the Twins acquired him in the Dozier trade they kept him at that level. 

 

In Stashak's 3rd professional season the Twins returned him to Ft Myers to repeat A+ level, calling him up to AA to make 3 relief appearances.

 

In Stashak's 4th season the Twins again started him in A+ ball, but this time moving him to AA after just 2 appearances to AA were Smeltzer would join him later after the trade. 

 

Of course, the Twins being the Twins, the kept Smeltzer at AA in his 4th and he is joined by Stashak, starting his 5th campaing.   But Stashak is almost a full year older than Smeltzer and is pitching at the same level with significantly less experience at the level.  Their minor league performance is very similar, if anything Stashak has a slightly better statistical profile.  

 

But, I would argue that if the players would have switched the teams that drafted them, Stashak would have advanced faster rather than Smeltzer,  In Smeltzer's career, brief as it is, the Dodger's advanced him at least a level every season.  The first season that Smeltzer did not advance a level from the year previous, he was in the Twins organization.  

 

Stashak followed the Twins normal:  repeating levels and slow promotions.  

 

I get that some will claim I am "cherry picking", and I used this example just because both players pitched in the AA game yesterday.  But, the fact is this is a consistent pattern the Twins organization uses.

While I a do agree they seem to slow play some players, recently that doesn't seem to be the trend I am seeing.  They aggressively promoted Rooker, Badoo, Miranda, Lewis, Graterol, Helman and probably others.  If you truly prove you belong at the next level I believe the player will get there sooner rather than later in the Twins system. 

I think part of the reason some of our players are struggling to start the MiLB season is that the Twins have aggressively promoted so many of them.  Most of the players doing well to start the season are those that were at that level last year (i.e. Cabbage, Diaz, Blankehorn). So there is a fine line when it comes to promotion as once confidence is ruined it can take a long time to get it back thus the caution to make sure a player is ready for the next jump.

I do agree with you that Aggressive promotion is the way to go for most players.  The only way to get better is to face better competition the only way to face better competition is to move up.  Why delay helping a player get better?  If they can't step up to the next level were they ever going to no matter how long you waited? It is a fine line but I think being as aggressive as possible is best for the player and the organization.

I would expect a fifth round draft pick to advance quicker than a 13th round pick. What's the big surprise?

Thanks for the first hand report.

 

Good hearing about Arraez.  I have a question for everyone hear at TD.  Will Arraez hit for a .400 average at AA in 2019?  Would like to see TD do a poll to see how many of us think it is possible.

 

He has a knack for talking walks and sneaking GB's through the infield.  So I think the more amazing feat would be if he can be the first ever with a .500 OB%

While I a do agree they seem to slow play some players, recently that doesn't seem to be the trend I am seeing.  They aggressively promoted Rooker, Badoo, Miranda, Lewis, Graterol, Helman and probably others.  If you truly prove you belong at the next level I believe the player will get there sooner rather than later in the Twins system. 

 

I think part of the reason some of our players are struggling to start the MiLB season is that the Twins have aggressively promoted so many of them.  Most of the players doing well to start the season are those that were at that level last year (i.e. Cabbage, Diaz, Blankehorn). So there is a fine line when it comes to promotion as once confidence is ruined it can take a long time to get it back thus the caution to make sure a player is ready for the next jump.

 

I do agree with you that Aggressive promotion is the way to go for most players.  The only way to get better is to face better competition the only way to face better competition is to move up.  Why delay helping a player get better?  If they can't step up to the next level were they ever going to no matter how long you waited? It is a fine line but I think being as aggressive as possible is best for the player and the organization.

I fail to see any "aggressive promotion" that you speak of. 

Baddoo?   He spent two years at the Rookie level and then advanced one level a year in 2018 and 2019.  Miranda?  He spent two years at the Rookie level.  He got promited to A+ second half of last year but then restarted there.

Here is news for you, this "aggressive promotion" isn't aggressive promotion.  It is at best normal promotion.  The task of minor league baseball lisn't that they "do well" at a level, it is to develop them as players.  The Twins have done a piss poor job of that all the while moving their players slowly through the system.

While I don't agree with mlhouse's premise (because yes, I think he's cherry picking), I think this is equally wrong. 

 

Your 13th round picks will almost always be college players who can be signed for the minimum bonus and not affect their draft capital or the occasional HS pick that becomes a fall back if there's more cap available than expected. Picks 1-10 will be a mix of college and HS guys, with the HS guys likely advancing slower. A college 5th round vs. 13th would in general be true, but even then they may have a guy there who can sign for the minimum so as to free up cap space for the HS guys drafted in other places....

 

This isn't really the NFL where you grab the BPA and go. Draft capital and signability are huge factors.

Cherry picking?  I can give you example after example of how the Twins system is absolutely glacial compared to other systems.

Correct. It's all about the individual's development. Stashak was more slow developing, and moved to the bullpen.

 

And, where they start a season doesn't matter, especially at the upper levels because sometimes that dictated by minor league signings that they want to keep around for a little bit to see how they do and if there are immediate needs. 

The problem is if you look at the two prospects statistically, Stashak was just as good, if not better.   

And, where they start the season does matter.  The Twins are constantly making our prospects repeat levels even when they have completely dominated at the level.  Look at a prospect like Stephen Gonsalves.  His career started in 2013.  This is how he was promoted:

2013   GCL(Rok)  ELZ (Rok)

2014   ELZ(Rok)  CR (A)

2015   CR(A)  FTM (A+)

2016   FTM(A+)  CHA (AA)

2017   CHA (AA)  ROC (AAA)

2018   CHA (AA)  ROC(AAA)  TWINS

They made him repeat his level at the start of every fn season of his minor league career even though the only time he stumbled in his career was his initial late season promotion to AAA in 2017.  

When he was promoted to Elizabethton in 2013 from GCL TWins he completely dominated with a 1.29 ERA, 21 strikeouts in 14 innings (he had a 0.63 ERA at the lower rookie level).  

Yet, the TWins made him start 2014 season at short season Elizabethton again.  WHY?   Then they promoted him to Cedar Rapids where he pitched well in 8 starts.  44 Ks in 36 innings, 3.79 ERA (his highest ERA stop of his career outside that 2017 promotion to AAA).

But, he starts the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, dominates with a 1.15 ERA and then the move him late in the season to Fort Myers were he pitches very well with a 2.61 ERA over 15 starts.

But he starts the 2016 season back in Fort Myers, where he dominates with a 2.33 ERA over 11 starts before being promoted to Chatanooga AA team, where he dominates with a 1.82 ERA over 13 starts.

But he starts the 2017 season back n Chattanooga and again dominates with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts before getting his first bad stop in AAA with a 5.68 ERA in 5 late season starts.  

But, he then again starts the 2018 season in Chattanooga.  Even the Twins can't pretend this is a smart move for long and he dominates for 3 starts before going back up to AAA and pitching well over 100 innings with a 2.96 ERA.  

This is the pattern the Twins use with the vast bulk of their prospects.  Claiming otherwise is not supported by the evidence.  Despite all of his minor league success, the Twins moved Gonsalves along like a struggling prospect, making him repeat levels that most organization would have moved him on from.  And what is absurd is that after all of this slow, conservative movement he arrives at the major league level basically unprepared and over-matched.  

After his first pro season in Rookie ball with a sub-1.00 ERA, he should have started the 2014 season in A and been promoted to A+ midway through.  Then in 2015 he should have started in AA and spent the whole season at that critical developmental step.  Then in 2016 at some time during the season he should have been in AAA and even got a late season promotion to the big league team that lost 103 games on the year.  

With that promotion schedule Gonsalves would have reached the critical evaluation steps much sooner.  His major league debut would have been at 21 years of age and he would still have time to put the development he needed to become a solid MLB pitcher.  Not everyone makes it, but the fact is by 2019 we would already know the answer with Gonsalves.  Right now, he is a 24 year old pitcher that probably doesn't have much of a chance because he reached the majors so much later than he should have.

Yup, and as I've written many times, Gonsalves was OK with the plan and enjoyed going back to the level where he had made 10-12 starts the year before to allow him to work on the things he worked on in the offseason to help him get prepared for the next level. 

 

Do you think Gonsalves would have been MORE prepared for the big leagues if he had been up at 21 rather than 23-24? Whether or not he makes it has nothing to do with the age he came up. 24 isn't very old. 

1.  I think he would have been AS WELL prepared at 21 vs. 24.  On a 103 loss team he should have been handed the ball every 5th start for at least half a season.  What he learns there is worth 3 seasons of minor leagues.  I would not have cared if he had a 6.50 ERA.  Give him the ball.  Let him develop his stuff against major leaguers rather than blowing away A and AA hitters.

2.   24 is ancient in a profession with such limited time frames and  injury risk.    Get your first taste of MLB at 21, maybe bounce a year or so, and then have Tommy John surgery, you still have a chance at a major league career.  Wait until you are 23-24 years old to bounce up and down, then get injured you might not ever get back.

3.   I am pretty happy with the Twins start, but I think that they finally figured out that they needed a younger manager to work with the younger players.  I am not sure if Ron Gardenhire is a good manager or not, but what I did know was that he was an absolutely terrible manager for 95+ loss teams trying to rebuild.   I think that Paul Molitor is actually a good manager, but not a very good manager on a rebuilding team requiring patience and development.  I have argued that the Twins hire a manager like Rocco Baldelli  and that they needed to adjust how they move young players in the rebuild process since 2012.  The truth in my positions are proven by the results.

I often demonstrate how the Twins minor league system is much more conservative in player movement than other organizations.  Lots of people disagree, but I want to show side by side two players that pitched in yesterday's AA game:  Devin Smeltzer and Cody Stashak.   

 

Here are links to their minor league stats to follow along:

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=656970#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664054#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

 

Both players were college draft picks.  Stashak by the Twins in the 13th round in 2013 and Smeltzer by the Dodgers' in the 5th round one year later.

 

They both pitched in their draft short season in the Rookie League.  They both began their first full professional season in A ball.  After 10 starts with a 3.78 ERA Smeltzer was promoted to A+ ball and made 15 more starts at that level.  Stashak was likewise promoted to A+ level but after 17 starts at Cedar Rapids and only made 3 starts at A+ level.

 

It is here were they diverged.  In his 3rd professional season, Smeltzer was promoted to AA and when the Twins acquired him in the Dozier trade they kept him at that level. 

 

In Stashak's 3rd professional season the Twins returned him to Ft Myers to repeat A+ level, calling him up to AA to make 3 relief appearances.

 

In Stashak's 4th season the Twins again started him in A+ ball, but this time moving him to AA after just 2 appearances to AA were Smeltzer would join him later after the trade. 

 

Of course, the Twins being the Twins, the kept Smeltzer at AA in his 4th and he is joined by Stashak, starting his 5th campaing.   But Stashak is almost a full year older than Smeltzer and is pitching at the same level with significantly less experience at the level.  Their minor league performance is very similar, if anything Stashak has a slightly better statistical profile.  

 

But, I would argue that if the players would have switched the teams that drafted them, Stashak would have advanced faster rather than Smeltzer,  In Smeltzer's career, brief as it is, the Dodger's advanced him at least a level every season.  The first season that Smeltzer did not advance a level from the year previous, he was in the Twins organization.  

 

Stashak followed the Twins normal:  repeating levels and slow promotions.  

 

I get that some will claim I am "cherry picking", and I used this example just because both players pitched in the AA game yesterday.  But, the fact is this is a consistent pattern the Twins organization uses.

This is a outstanding example of cherry picking and we are no more conservative in promoting than most teams. 

Cherry picking?  I can give you example after example of how the Twins system is absolutely glacial compared to other systems.

So why did you only give one? Keep going, we have nothing better to do.

So why did you only give one? Keep going, we have nothing better to do.

I have literally given dozens at various times throughout this forum.   I just included Stephen GOnsalves.

Again, to demonstrate the Twins vs. other organization lets compare Michael Reed, a guy we picked up but traded away and LaMonte Wade's career.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=reed--002mic

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=wade--000lam

Reed was a high school draft choice in 2011 while Wade was a college draft pick in 2015.

In 2011 Reed played in ROK league and had an OPS of .670.

In 2012, as a 19 year old, Reed played in ROK+ league and had an OPS of .638 but taste of A+ and AA.

In 2013 A ball, improved walk totals and had OPS of .785.

In 2014 A+ OPS of .774

In 2015 he started in AA played well with .801 OPS, moved to AAA .732 OPS in 148 pa, then got late season debut with the Brewers as a 22 year old (6 plate appearances in 7 games).

I get that Wade was an olderplayer but lets compare his journey.

2015   ROK/A    .904 OPS

2016   A/A+   .841 OPS

2017   AA   .805 OPS   (this is a big leap for a Twins prospect)

2018   AA/AAA   .739 OPS

While he was an older player than Reed, in his first four seasons in professional ball Wade completely outplayed Reed.  Yet, the Brewers advanced a much younger player as quick or even quicker as the Twins advanced Wade, a college player.  

In the end, Michael Reed's minor league movement compares to Max Kepler's but Kepler performance was much superior.   

I fail to see any "aggressive promotion" that you speak of. 

 

Baddoo?   He spent two years at the Rookie level and then advanced one level a year in 2018 and 2019.  Miranda?  He spent two years at the Rookie level.  He got promited to A+ second half of last year but then restarted there.

 

Here is news for you, this "aggressive promotion" isn't aggressive promotion.  It is at best normal promotion.  The task of minor league baseball lisn't that they "do well" at a level, it is to develop them as players.  The Twins have done a piss poor job of that all the while moving their players slowly through the system.

We probably see promotion differently.  For Me aggressive promotion sometimes has more to with age than how long a player is at a level.  Badoo is young for his current level and has been young for pretty much all levels so far.  When most HS players are drafted they don't play much that first year so they typically have to repeat the level to show that they have some skill to move up. 

In the Appy league he showed a good eye at the plate and showed some power.  He looked ready for A ball.  In A ball he showed an OK eye at the plate but seemed to have contact issue as his K rate climbed.  If his contact rate was better the first half of A ball I am sure the Twins would have moved him up just like they did with Miranda, but if you don't conquer the level why should you move up?  He had a better second half but still has some contact issue's IMO.  They moved him to A+ this year anyway to keep him moving.  He is young for the level and struggling right now as a 20 year old.  If he figures things out he will get moved to AA if not they will leave him where he is.  I still think it is an aggressive promotion because he never really dominated A ball IMO.  The Twins apparently believe the skills are there and want to challenge him with the next level.

I'm not sure what you want when it comes to promotion. While you can push players why push them if they are not ready?  If they haven't dominated the level they are at why promote to them to a higher level where they are even more likely to fail?  They have to dominate or at the very least be good at a level before promoting them.

Do the Twins slow play some players, absolutely yes.  I don't understand the way they treat relievers at all.  I think Gonasalves got mentioned and although he has dominated in both AA and AAA he did not handle MLB well at all.  IMO if he throws strikes when he was brought up they would have let him keep pitching but a starting pitcher with his walk rate does not belong on a MLB team.  He had more to work on so I think he proved the Twins correct for slow playing him.  He needs to have better control to be succesful in MLB. Once he has the tools he will get his shot.  AA and AAA get treated fairly similar so I don't think it matters too much where you play once you get there as the Twins have promoted from AA before.

In summary I think you can only aggressively promote players that are ready.  They have to prove they are ready by consistently mastering the competition or the very least be better than average.  If players don't do that how can you aggressively promote?  While I like your examples and think you have a decent case we don't get to see these players, only the box scores so it is hard to know what warts they have despite having some success against their peers.  

Maybe the Twins are not the most aggressive team when it comes to promotion but I don't think they are the worst either.

While I don't necessarily disagree with your overall position, I cringe when people use the "they are young for their league" argument to defend non promotions.
Actual prospects are nearly always going to be young for their league, no matter how slowly they are promoted.
The milb non prospect (which is the vast majority of players) lifers skew that average age up, as do mid to late round college filler picks.

I understand your position as well and agree with you in many ways.  Most superstar\really good players typically are young usually 21 or 22 by AA\AAA.  College draft picks are already 20 when they come out so need to be promoted fast to hit that mark.  I also agree with you that leagues have what I would call filler players who are quite old for the level they are playing at skewing the age numbers for the leagues.  Still in my mind kids that are 20 and in High A are fast movers as there are not a lot of players that age at that level.

You do have to keep in mind that some late bloomers can be really good players as well.  I am thinking Merrifield as a good example.  Contributors come from every age group.  It is the younger players that we get excited about though as they tend be difference makers and have the potential to help a team long term. We haven't seen enough of those types of players in the past but it seems like we have several in the system right now.