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  • Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 16-20


    Seth Stohs

    More national prospect rankings are being unveiled each week. The Twins have been ranked as having one of the top two or three farm systems in all of baseball again this year. We know that the organization has some high-end, potential impact big leaguers and several of them are getting close to being promoted. Because of that, Twins Daily is going to, over the next few weeks, produce our Top 20 Twins Prospects. Today, we begin with our choices for Twins prospects 16 through 20.

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    20. Amaurys Minier – OF/1B

    Age: 19

    2014 Stats (Rookie): .292/.405/.520 (.925), 11-2B, 2-3B, 8-HR, 33 RBI

    ETA: 2019

    Minier was the Twins big international signing in 2012. He got a $1.4 million signing bonus as a 16 year old from the Dominican Republic. His professional career began in 2013 with the GCL Twins where the switch-hitter hit just .214/.252/.455 (.707) in 31 games. However, he still showed his tremendous power potential with five doubles, two triples and six home runs. In the offseason, he had shoulder surgery. Few believed he would be able to stick at third base, so he began to work in the outfield and some at first base. He returned to the GCL in 2014 and was much improved. His plate discipline and his power were able to develop. Minier just turned 19 last week and should spend 2015 with the Elizabethton Twins.

    19. Travis Harrison – OF

    Age: 22

    2014 Stats (A+): .269/.361/.365 (.726), 33-2B, 1-3B, 3-HR, 59 RBI

    ETA: 2017

    Harrison was the Twins' first of two supplemental first round picks in the 2011 draft. His career began in 2012 when he hit .301 (.845 OPS) with 21 extra base hits in Elizabethton’s short season. He moved up to Cedar Rapids in 2013 and hit .253. However, he got on base almost 37% of the time and hit 28 doubles and 15 home runs. Following that season, he made the move from third base to left field. In 2014 he played in Ft. Myers. He continued to show very good strike zone judgment. He showed doubles power in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, but the 6-1, 220 pounder hit just three home runs. Harrison will be 22 years old through the 2015 season. I suspect he’ll start the season back with the Miracle, but he should get an opportunity to move up to Chattanooga during the season. He is a solid hitter who uses the entire field. He cut his strikeout total by about 30% from the previous season in the exact same number of plate appearances. He has tremendous strength, so expect him to put up bigger power numbers as he moves up.

    18. Jake Reed – RHP

    Age: 22

    2014 Stats (Rk/A): 3-0, 8 Saves, 0.29 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 31.0 IP, 11 H, 3 BB, 39 K

    ETA: 2016

    With the Twins fifth round pick, they drafted their fourth straight college relief pitcher. They took Jake Reed who was the closer for the University of Oregon in 2014 after two years as a starter. He signed quickly for $350K. He pitched in four games for Elizabethton and 16 more for Cedar Rapids. In all, he put up video game numbers. For his work, he received an invitation to represent the Twins in the Arizona Fall League where he gave up just one run. Reed has a fastball that sits 93-95 mph and runs in on a right-handed hitter. He also has a very sharp slider that dives away from a right-hander. He will be just 22 years old through the 2015 season. He likely will start the season in Ft. Myers but should move up to Chattanooga fairly quickly. There is a chance he could be in the big leagues in 2015.

    17. Stuart Turner – C

    Age: 23

    2014 Stats (A+): .249/.322/.375 with 16-2B, 2-3B, 7-HR, 40 RBI

    ETA: 2016

    Turner was the Twins third round pick in 2013 out of Ole Miss. He was awarded the Johnny Bench Award as the top college catcher that season. He spent that summer in Elizabethton. After going to big league spring training, Turner skipped the Midwest League and jumped to Ft. Myers. On May 25, he was hitting just .188. From that point on, he made some adjustments and hit .282/.360/.427 with 19 of his 25 extra base hits. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, he presents a big target behind the plate. He has the trust of his pitchers and his strong arm helped him to throw out 32% of would-be base runners. He will again go to big league spring training with the Twins and should spend the season as a 23 year old at AA Chattanooga.

    16. Tyler Duffey – RHP

    Age: 24

    2014 Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 13-3, 3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 149.1 IP, 30 BB, 113 K

    ETA: 2015

    At Rice, Duffey teamed with JT Chargois as co-closers. Duffey was the Twins fifth round pick in 2012 and pitched great in Elizabethton that summer. In 2013, he started in Cedar Rapids and quickly moved up to Ft. Myers which is where he began the 2014 season. After four starts with the Miracle, and a 3-0 record, he was moved up to New Britain. He made 18 starts with the Rock Cats and went 8-3. His season ended with three starts in Rochester where he went 2-0. As impressive, his strikeout rate rose at each level, from 5.2 to 6.8 to 9.0. Duffey’s fastball sits between 91 and 94 as a starter and 97 in the bullpen. He throws a cutter in the upper-80s. His 12-6 curveball is probably his best strikeout pitch. He’s still improving his changeup. At 6-3 and 230 pounds, Duffey gets a lot of his strength from his legs. He could go back to AA to start the 2015 season depending upon the numbers. However, if he does, he should be the first guy called up to Rochester. He was recently invited to big league camp as well.

    Check back later this week for Part 2 of the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects Countdown.

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    If he put up those numbers, I'm not sure Suzuki would even need to get hurt for him to get a call up seeing as how much the team loves his defense. 

     

    I don't assume he would hit anything near that though, he has never profiled to be much of a hitter.

     

    I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade.  Hopefully there becomes a big enough log jam of talent for the rotation that he can go back to the pen where he can put more juice on his fastball.

    I really agree with all of this, though Duffey seems more legit.

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    I'm not a big Duffey believer either, he looks an awful lot like the other high-contact AAAA arms that have come through the system in the last half decade. 

     

    That's who Duffey was coming into last season. And early last season. It's this changeup that has him becoming a prospect. Ben Badler at BA did a write up on Duffey in mid-July calling what he saw a "plus changeup". He also said his curveball (Duffey's words) is actually a swing-and-miss slider. And had him clocked at 96, but worked 91-94. 

     

    He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA.

     

    #BelieveInDuffey

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    That's who Duffey was coming into last season. And early last season. It's this changeup that has him becoming a prospect. Ben Badler at BA did a write up on Duffey in mid-July calling what he saw a "plus changeup". He also said his curveball (Duffey's words) is actually a swing-and-miss slider. And had him clocked at 96, but worked 91-94. 

     

    He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA.

     

    #BelieveInDuffey

    That's good to read and I sure hope you're right.

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    Duffey and Reed are overshadowed in this organization. In any other system, these are top 10 guys with huge expectations.

    Sickels has them both C+.  Even the Detroit Tigers have 20 C+ or better guys in their system right now, so I'd hardly say these two would be clear top 10's everywhere else.

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    He then moved up to AAA and got 16(!) swinging strikes in his debut. Not to mention, increased his K/9 each month as he moved from high-A to AA to AAA.

    Seems like a small sample.  He's got 6.8 K/9 in both his pro seasons as a starter.  Below league average K/9 at every stop (save for his 3 starts in Rochester).

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    How do you count 12 pitching prospects higher than Reed or Duffey? I've got Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Burdi, Thorpe, Rogers & May.  Am I missing someone?

     

    I read through my list...I don't have 12 prospects higher than these 2.  You had 8.  So did I--the one I had you don't--Jason Wheeler.  I don't have Thorpe (arm issues). Maybe my AAP Brett Lee--but his K numbers are down--though he keeps on picking up wins.

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    It'll be interesting to see what the Twins decide to do long term with Tyler Duffey; keep him as a starter or convert to a reliever like he was at Rice. Don't know if the Twins take into consideration the organizational depth or long-term contracts in the major league rotation when making that decision.

     

    With the improved change-up he showed last year it would seem he has a good 3 pitch mix that would play well as a starter.  Personally, I would hope he remains in that role to hold his value either in within the organization or externally in a trade.

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    I read through my list...I don't have 12 prospects higher than these 2.  You had 8.  So did I--the one I had you don't--Jason Wheeler.  I don't have Thorpe (arm issues). Maybe my AAP Brett Lee--but his K numbers are down--though he keeps on picking up wins.

     

    I like Wheeler also. Probably more than most folks here at TD. The guy suffers from "Hey, he's 6-8 so how come he doesn't throw 96 mph" expectations. He lives in the 90-91 velo but the guy just knows how to pitch!

     

    Anyway, I digress since he's not in Seth's list here. POT- player off topic!

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    How do you count 12 pitching prospects higher than Reed or Duffey? I've got Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Burdi, Thorpe, Rogers & May.  Am I missing someone?

    Sickels provides Grades, along with his rankings. By my count, there are 13 pitchers with a grade of C+ or higher. You didn't miss anyone as far as his rankings.

    Edited by birdwatcher
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    Sickels has them both C+.  Even the Detroit Tigers have 20 C+ or better guys in their system right now, so I'd hardly say these two would be clear top 10's everywhere else.

    To be more specific, Detroit has two pitchers, Farmer and Kubitz, at one grade level above Duffey and Reed. Detroit has a TOTAL of four prospects at that B- level, and zero prospects graded higher than B-. I think it's probably safe to say that both Reed and Duffey would slide into Detroit's top 10, certainly top 12, but not necessarily in some other systems. In terms of the grades in our division, the SOX have 6 prospects graded higher than C+, the Indians 9, the Royals 7, the Tigers 4, and the Twins 14.

     

    The Twins have 5 prospects graded at B+ and above, the Royals 2, Indians 3, Sox 2, Detroit 0.

    Edited by birdwatcher
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    Turner over Minier?  And Duffey 16th in this system?

     

    Ouch!

     

    I agree with your incredulity with respect to Turner and Minier, and to some degree about Duffey. I do think that Duffey is a top 25 guy, though. That said, I really want the Twins to involve Duffey and Travis Harrison in some kind of trade. 

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    What was that Thrylos has Buxton 3rd?  lol  what a prospect noob!

     

    All these years going back to Twinkie Town, Thrylos, have now been disregarded.

    From this day forward I Taketh away the Power of Thrylos.

     

    But in all seriousness I <3 thrylos' added knowledge but nnnnot  quite as much as Seth Stohs and Nygaard.

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    I agree with your incredulity with respect to Turner and Minier, and to some degree about Duffey. I do think that Duffey is a top 25 guy, though. That said, I really want the Twins to involve Duffey and Travis Harrison in some kind of trade. 

    I can't help but think when mlbtraderumors says, ' 5 to 6 teams discussing w/ Phills about potential Hamels trade' . 

     

    I can't help but wonder if names like Trevor May or Alex Meyer are being thrown around, Duffey maybe as a 3rd piece but.

     

    how about

     

    Jorge Polanco , Kohl Stewart, A.B. Walker , and Taylor Rogers for Hamels?

     

    I personally wouldn't offer Meyer.  Maybe think about May instead of Stewart, I just think The phils would prefer Stewart.

     

    Essentially I wouldn't offer any top top guys like Buxton , Sano , Meyer , Berrios and I'd try to keep guys like Rosario , and Thorpe and Gonsalves. BUT being completely honest , for  a guy like Hamels...T. Duffey , and Travis Harrison are exactly the types of guys i hope the Phills bite on as pieces #2 and #3 in any such deal.

     

    (hopefully if we offer 3 or 4 solid guys the Phills take on 3 mill a year on Hamels' deal or so)

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    Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks.

     

    Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done.

     

    You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else.

     

    Either of those are too rich for my blood.

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    Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks.

     

    Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done.

     

    You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else.

     

    Either of those are too rich for my blood.

     

    Yes, the Phillies would need either Buxton or Sano in a deal. I'm sure they would want at least 2 top-10 type prospects that are on the doorstep to the big leagues.

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    Yeah, Hamels is a guy your going to have to put together an offer full of top 10 prospects to even get anywhere in talks.

     

    Buxton or Sano would get those conversatios going in a serious direction, then it's going to take a Meyer or Stewart and someone in the top 7-10 range, and probably something else to get it done.

     

    You take Buxton or Sano out of the conversation, then it becomes a Meyer or Stewart, and May, and Polanco type, and something else.

     

    Either of those are too rich for my blood.

    problem is, Amaro wants a bunch of prospects AND doesn't want to eat any of Hamel's salary.

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    I disagree with the hypothetical notion Phills would want or even Ask for Buxton, I think they even know the #1 prospect is off-limits.

     

    I could see Amaro asking for Sano as the highlighter in any such deal, in which i would Be glad to hear TR and co politely decline.

     

    Or counter with Meyer, May, Polanco and a C+ guy.

     

    We'll see. Hamels, in terms of both pieces to acquire and in terms of Anual salarly is probably well too rich for our blood and Pohlads wallet anyway...

     

    I'm ok with that.

     

    I'm ok with passing on Shields too.

     

    However Question for Jeremy, Steve Lein and others.... if Shields would be willing to take a 38~ 40 $  Million dollar deal on 2 yrs would you do that if you were the Twins and (barely) got the go ahead approval from St. Peter and Pohlad?

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    Says the guy that rated Buxton, MLB.com's #1 overall prospect, third in the Twins system? You're going to pick on Turner over Minier?

     

    We will be here (hopefully) and shall see re: Buxton vs Polanco vs Sano and shall see re: Turner vs. Minier.

     

    And unlike certain places, I did give an explanation for ranking Sano and Polanco over Buxton, vs. saying "someone else thinks he is the best prospect in baseball, thus he should be".

     

    And, if you want to argue about or discuss my list (with baseball arguments, not because Callis or Mayo said so, I don't care what they say, they ranked Blackburn as the best Twins' pitching prospect) feel free to do it at the appropriate place and not threadjack this thread.

     

    That said, I'd love to hear the argument for Turner over Minier...

    Edited by Thrylos
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    I want to compile a prospect list of all the various top 30 or whatever lists around (not the national ones, but the TD one, Jeremy's, Cody's, Thrylos', mine, and Gleeman if he gets that done soonish.

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    I want to compile a prospect list of all the various top 30 or whatever lists around (not the national ones, but the TD one, Jeremy's, Cody's, Thrylos', mine, and Gleeman if he gets that done soonish.

     

    I kind of have that started. Ill try to find a good way to get that posted when this list and Gleeman's are done.

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    We will be here (hopefully) and shall see re: Buxton vs Polanco vs Sano and shall see re: Turner vs. Minier.

     

    And unlike certain places, I did give an explanation for ranking Sano and Polanco over Buxton, vs. saying "someone else thinks he is the best prospect in baseball, thus he should be".

     

    And, if you want to argue about or discuss my list (with baseball arguments, not because Callis or Mayo said so, I don't care what they say, they ranked Blackburn as the best Twins' pitching prospect) feel free to do it at the appropriate place and not threadjack this thread.

     

    That said, I'd love to hear the argument for Turner over Minier...

     

    Lol. "Threadjack" a minor league prospect list thread by talking about other people's/website's prospect lists?

     

    I had Minier as my #17 prospect in the 2013 version and had hopes that he could stick at 3B, felt good that - unlike Sano or Polanco - he skipped over the DSL completely. Loved his bat. Dropped him off in 2014 amid the shoulder issue he had fixed in the off-season and didn't think he'd get a full year in, wanted to see how he'd recover. He had a good enough year to get back on the list (#23), but the 50/50 chance that he ends up as a 1B left him lower in my mind (same with Diaz). Obviously, I'll re-evaluate that thought next off-season. There's too many questions, for me, to rank him ahead of the guys I had in the Top 20.

     

    Turner checked in with him at #18. I believe Turner to be a better prospect than Garver, who I had at #22. For me, Garver has less offensive upside than Minier, but more defensive certainty. So I gave Garver the nod over Minier. I believe Turner's defense outranks Garver's, even though Garver is better with the stick. Again all my opinions, which will probably be wrong. Apparently you know better...

     

    Thrylos, on 03 Feb 2015 - 6:38 PM, said:

    Turner over Minier?  And Duffey 16th in this system?

    Ouch!

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