Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Countdown: 11-15

tobi0040 · February 5, 2015

In a recent BP article, Before They Were Prospects: AL Central, a scout had this to say at the end of a several paragraph story about Stephen Gonsalves:

This scout had seen Gonsalves pitch at least six times as a high schooler. I ran into him by coincidence on a back field at the Red Sox Complex during the 2013 WWBA Underclass World Championship, where the Twins and Red Sox were playing an Instructional League game. I couldn't believe the difference in Gonsalves' curveball. Instead of being in the upper 60s, it was mid-70s and had some hair on it. If Gonsalves had thrown that pitch in high school, he would have been a lock-down first-rounder. The Twins pitching coaches had done their job and done it very well. —David Rawnsley

Thanks for the info. If his fastball and change are plus, seems to me even an average hook will make him a very compelling MLB player. 6'5 lefty with velocity and two plus pitches. Those are pretty rare.

Edited February 5, 2015 by tobi0040

jimmer · February 5, 2015

This is one of my exact criticisms of Mauer. For as good of a hitter as he is, he has always been way too passive in RBI producing situations. He treats it the same as any other at-bat, and primarily works the count to get on-base if he can. He takes too many walks just like Votto.

This is also a reason where I'm not necessarily in the camp that always defends Mauer's abilities as an 'elite' player. His skill set relies a lot on the other players in the lineup to make him truly stand out (outside of his MVP season). In this way I tend to argue with the people who call others idiots for pointing out his flaws. Mauer is definitely a great player, but it's a different kind of great than they are trying to defend, in my opinion.

I also find it interesting that

See, I see it different. For most of his career Mauer has hit very well with RISP. Most pitchers know how good of a hitter Mauer is and I imagine most would rather face someone else than him in those situations. So they pick around the plate and hope he goes for their pitch instead of his. If he doesn't bite, the worst he can do is get on base. Beter that then give up the hit. Why go after a guy who hits like that? Instead of Mauer forcing the issue and swinging at pitcher's pitches, he does what he always does, look for his pitch. Make pitchers throw strikes. There is no guarantee that if he forced the issue or was more aggressive that we'd see better results by him swinging at pitches that are nibbling at the plate. I don't see it as passive, I see it as smart. Votto, when asked, has said pretty much the same thing. It's as if some would rather these guys swing at pitcher's pitches that could very well make unproductive outs then actually get another guy on base.

Also, Mauer career slash line with RISP is better than his overall career slash line. Better BA (by 11 points), better OBP (55 points), better slugging % (20 points). So, for his career, he does better in those situations than not in those situations.

Edited February 5, 2015 by jimmer

Shane Wahl · February 5, 2015

These guys are probably 5-9 for most teams.

Dantes929 · February 5, 2015

Jimmers, I am with you. The more runners on and the fewer outs the better. I even liked his attempt at a bunt hit back in 2010 that everyone criticized. It was smart but just not executed well and ended up poorly. Odds were very high for getting the bases loaded and Kubel hitting a sac fly. The only argument against is that often even in those late inning clutch at bats he will let the first strike fastball down the middle go. People just have to get over the fact that he is not a true power hitter though. If a guy is on first and he swings away the highest odds of his getting a base hit is a line drive to left with a result exactly the same as a walk. People want their heroes to be heroes I guess. They forget all the times Kirby struck out in those situations and just remember the times he came through. I prefer players going to their strengths. For Mauer it is an extremely disciplined strike zone.

lightfoot789 · February 5, 2015

I'm not knocking Mauer's ability to drive in runs, I'm saying he needs help. He does move runners over with his doubles and singles, but if the guys behind him can't drive those runs in - "Oh Well". The threat of guys behind him walking, doesn't put the fear of God into opposing pitchers. The fear of guys hitting a 3 run shot is what most pitchers fear. The Twins should have those kind of fearful threats in the near future. Mauer is finally getting that kind of help again (Vargas; Arcia; Sano; Plouffe; Dozier; Etc.).

Steve Lein · February 5, 2015

See, I see it different. For most of his career Mauer has hit very well with RISP. Most pitchers know how good of a hitter Mauer is and I imagine most would rather face someone else than him in those situations. So they pick around the plate and hope he goes for their pitch instead of his. If he doesn't bite, the worst he can do is get on base. Beter that then give up the hit. Why go after a guy who hits like that? Instead of Mauer forcing the issue and swinging at pitcher's pitches, he does what he always does, look for his pitch. Make pitchers throw strikes. There is no guarantee that if he forced the issue or was more aggressive that we'd see better results by him swinging at pitches that are nibbling at the plate. I don't see it as passive, I see it as smart. Votto, when asked, has said pretty much the same thing. It's as if some would rather these guys swing at pitcher's pitches that could very well make unproductive outs then actually get another guy on base.

Also, Mauer career slash line with RISP is better than his overall career slash line. Better BA (by 11 points), better OBP (55 points), better slugging % (20 points). So, for his career, he does better in those situations than not in those situations.

I understand and get the point of the first paragraph, but I want my best hitter doing whatever he can to bring runs in, instead of passing it along to the next guy. Runs are what win games, not putting another duck on the pond.

And I'm gonna blow up the second paragraph because I've done research on this topic, just never have published it. Was more geared to make the argument Mauer should bat 2nd instead of 3rd, but works here too.

For that research, the season was 2012 that I looked at. I took the primary #3 hitter from every team in baseball to compare against Mauer.

Mauer has an excellent batting line with RISP over his career, however, that hasn't translated to even what I'd call average run production. Reason being? He doesn't hit a ton of XBH's in those situations, and draws a lot of walks. Lots of singles not scoring a guy from 2nd, lack of doubles to score a speedy runner from 1st, etc...

He was very high in categories like batting average (tied for 4th) and on-base percentage (2nd), but much lower in things like HR's (28th of 30), RBI's (15th of 30), and slugging (24th of 30). His OPS of .861 was barely above the average of .851 for these players.

One calculation I did was a percentage of possible runs these players produced. Based on RBI's and how many possible runners could have scored depending on the what the player did in that at bat. This calculation included the possibilty of a HR. I can't find that full spreadsheet for all 30 players, but my memory is telling me he was dead last in this calculation.

I was able to find another sheet though, comparing him against Adam Dunn for this calculation that year. I don't know how to demonstrate this idea any better:

Adam Dunn and his .204 overall batting average on the season produced a higher percentage of possible runs while up to bat (9.3% vs 8.0%) than Mauer did while batting .319. I'll repeat, Adam Dunn was a better overall run producer by batting .204 than Mauer was by batting .319.

Thrylos · February 6, 2015

I understand and get the point of the first paragraph, but I want my best hitter doing whatever he can to bring runs in, instead of passing it along to the next guy. Runs are what win games, not putting another duck on the pond.

....

Adam Dunn and his .204 overall batting average on the season produced a higher percentage of possible runs while up to bat (9.3% vs 8.0%) than Mauer did while batting .319. I'll repeat, Adam Dunn was a better overall run producer by batting .204 than Mauer was by batting .319.

I am confused. 2012:

RAR (Runs Above Replacement) :

Mauer: 22

Dunn: 15

Rbat (Runs Batting - hitting only, comparison with the average hitter)

Mauer: 31

Dunn: 10

ashbury · February 6, 2015

I understand and get the point of the first paragraph, but I want my best hitter doing whatever he can to bring runs in, instead of passing it along to the next guy.

Agreed. Anyone would. Unfortunately the opposing pitcher has some say in the matter.

Steve Lein · February 6, 2015

I am confused. 2012:

RAR (Runs Above Replacement) :
Mauer: 22
Dunn: 15

Rbat (Runs Batting - hitting only, comparison with the average hitter)
Mauer: 31
Dunn: 10

This is the calculation I made:

Plate Appearances:

Mauer - 641

Dunn - 649

Plate Appearances with no runners on (variable "A"):

Mauer - 325

Dunn - 360

Plate Appearances with one runner on base (variable "B"):

Mauer - 225

Dunn - 208

Plate Appearances with two runners on base (Variable "C"):

Mauer - 84

Dunn - 72

Plate Appearances with bases loaded (Variable "D"):

Mauer - 7

Dunn - 9

Runs Batted In (Variable "R"):

Mauer - 85

Dunn - 96

Percentage of Total Possible Runs Produced = R / [A + (B*2) + (C*3) + (D*4)]:

Mauer - 85/1055 = 8.0%

Dunn - 96/1028 = 9.3%

Steve Lein · February 6, 2015

Agreed. Anyone would. Unfortunately the opposing pitcher has some say in the matter.

Right. What I'm saying is you want that guy to be more aggressive in these situations. I don't think Mauer is.

ashbury · February 6, 2015

Right. What I'm saying is you want that guy to be more aggressive in these situations. I don't think Mauer is.

And I'm saying that if the pitcher has decided he's not going to let you beat him in this situation, you're playing into his hands to get aggressive at the nibbling.

Thrylos · February 6, 2015

This is the calculation I made:

Plate Appearances:
Mauer - 641
Dunn - 649

Plate Appearances with no runners on (variable "A"):
Mauer - 325
Dunn - 360

Plate Appearances with one runner on base (variable "B"):
Mauer - 225
Dunn - 208

Plate Appearances with two runners on base (Variable "C"):
Mauer - 84
Dunn - 72

Plate Appearances with bases loaded (Variable "D"):
Mauer - 7
Dunn - 9

Runs Batted In (Variable "R"):
Mauer - 85
Dunn - 96

Percentage of Total Possible Runs Produced = R / [A + (B*2) + (C*3) + (D*4)]:
Mauer - 85/1055 = 8.0%
Dunn - 96/1028 = 9.3%

So you are basing it on RBI. Unfortunately, lots of those depend on the runner and whether he can score with a single from second base, whether or not the runner will try to steal and get thrown out or even get picked off and whether the third base coach (stop sign Scottie was it then) sends a guy in. RBI are faulty in so many ways.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Thrylos

Steve Lein · February 6, 2015

So you are base it on RBI. Unfortunately, lots of those depend on the runner and whether he can score with a single from second base, whether or not the runner will try to steal and get thrown out or even get picked off and whether the third base coach (stop sign Scottie was it then) sends a guy in. RBI are faulty in so many ways.

I know it's flawed for such reasons, but is the most blunt force way possible of looking at it. A full season is a pretty good sample size, and the bigger the sampling size you take, the more such conditions normalize and deviations become negligible between two sets.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Steve Lein

Thrylos · February 6, 2015

I know it's flawed for such reasons, but is the most blunt force way possible of looking at it. A full season is a pretty good sample size, and the bigger the sampling size you take, the more such conditions normalize and deviations become negligible between two sets.

Nah. Garbage in, garbage out and RBI is garbage

RAR and Rbat are so much better. Can even use wRC or wRC+ if you want. Mauer 138, Dunn 115. That "RC" is Runs Created. Here.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Thrylos

jimmer · February 6, 2015

A full season is a pretty good sample size, and the bigger the sampling size you take, the more such conditions normalize and deviations become negligible between two sets.

Not with RBI it doesn't. RBI opps are random events, completely out of the hands of the batter. You can have a season where you hit poorly with RISP and have a lot of RBI and another year where you hit well with RISP and have much less RBI, The year Howard won the MVP, one reason he won MVP was that he had more RBI than Pujols. Howard hit in the low .200s with RISP, Pujols hit almost .400 with RISP. Pujols did much better driving in the runs that were available to drive in, but Howard had more.

Edited February 6, 2015 by jimmer

Seth Stohs · February 6, 2015

So now prospect lists get turned into Mauer bashing/praising opportunities now? Keep on topic, please.

Steve Lein · February 6, 2015

Not with RBI it doesn't. RBI opps are random events, completely out of the hands of the batter. You can also have a season where you hit poorly with RISP and have a lot of RBI and another year where you hit well with RISP and have much less RBI, The year Howard won the MVP, one reason he won MVP was that he had more RBI than Pujols. Howard hit in the low .200s with RISP, Pujols hit almost .400 with RISP. Pujols did much better driving in the runs that were available to drive in, but Howard had more.

There literally is a 2.5% percent difference in the "random" amount of opportunities each had in those numbers above. That is nothing in this context.

All these numbers say is over the course of that season, Dunn was more successful at producing runs for his team than Mauer. And it is factually undeniable.

To Seth: Sorry! I wasn't even paying attention to the article topic. And this is just stuff I find interesting in relation to Mauer. Not bashing. I always get accused of that! I already said Mauer is "great" in several ways before this.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Steve Lein

lightfoot789 · February 6, 2015

Not with RBI it doesn't. RBI opps are random events, completely out of the hands of the batter. You can have a season where you hit poorly with RISP and have a lot of RBI and another year where you hit well with RISP and have much less RBI, The year Howard won the MVP, one reason he won MVP was that he had more RBI than Pujols. Howard hit in the low .200s with RISP, Pujols hit almost .400 with RISP. Pujols did much better driving in the runs that were available to drive in, but Howard had more.

He won the MVP doing what he does and won a World Series Title the next year doing what he does. He had and has flaws, but they NEVER get to the World Series without him in that lineup. Even with all there other studs. You better have lights out pitching like the Giants did or a run producer like Howard somewhere in your lineup. IMO

That's why I like where Walker lies on list. His future is bright.

Thrylos · February 6, 2015

That's why I like where Walker lies on list. His future is bright.

he's got to wear shades

http://www.milb.com/assets/images/9/2/0/46115920/cuts/4_29_Walker_POW_mw2_0ai10dxr_n3mflu4r.jpg

Steve Lein · February 6, 2015

RAR and Rbat are so much better. Can even use wRC or wRC+ if you want. Mauer 138, Dunn 115. That "RC" is Runs Created. Here.

Yup, I love those metrics too. I'd use them in this argument as well though (the batting #2 vs batting #3). What "RC" does fundamentally to me, is combine two different abilities of a hitter: His ability to put himself in a position to end up scoring a run himself (essentially OBP), and ability to bring in runners available to him (essentially SLG).

In this way, Mauer's number is driven largely by his ability to put himself in a position to score (high BA/OBP), which is worth more in the RC calculation than the ability to bring in runners (high SLG), as it should be. He's very very good at this (one of the way's he is great), one of the best in the game over his career, so his number in this is very good. Dunn's number is driven by his power, but it's limited because he's not good at putting himself in position to score in other ways (low BA/OBP).

That's why you see the difference in those numbers and what I'm showing. Not at all arguing Dunn was worth more to his team than Mauer (that's something that's not debateable either), just that he produced more direct offense to scoreboards for his team.

ashbury · February 6, 2015

So now prospect lists get turned into Mauer bashing/praising opportunities now? Keep on topic, please.

I also missed that the tangent had taken on a life of its own and I contributed to it. Sorry. The tangent had a defensible connection to start, drawing a contrast to Mauer's propensity for walking versus Walker's perceived need to walk more. To the extent that connection needs to be pursued, so be it, but I agree (speaking now as a site moderator), let's stick to the thread subject of the players in this segment of the top 20.

nytwinsfan · February 6, 2015

So now prospect lists get turned into Mauer bashing/praising opportunities now? Keep on topic, please.

Seriously. So sick of this.

Shane Wahl · February 6, 2015

Has Lewis Thorpe not been mentioned in the discussion? How!? His health is crucial right now. If he overcomes this injury without losing a season, he instantly becomes a top 5-7 prospect.

Willihammer · February 6, 2015

For that research, the season was 2012 that I looked at. I took the primary #3 hitter from every team in baseball to compare against Mauer.

Mauer has an excellent batting line with RISP over his career, however, that hasn't translated to even what I'd call average run production. Reason being? He doesn't hit a ton of XBH's in those situations, and draws a lot of walks. Lots of singles not scoring a guy from 2nd, lack of doubles to score a speedy runner from 1st, etc...

He was very high in categories like batting average (tied for 4th) and on-base percentage (2nd), but much lower in things like HR's (28th of 30), RBI's (15th of 30), and slugging (24th of 30). His OPS of .861 was barely above the average of .851 for these players.

One calculation I did was a percentage of possible runs these players produced. Based on RBI's and how many possible runners could have scored depending on the what the player did in that at bat. This calculation included the possibilty of a HR. I can't find that full spreadsheet for all 30 players, but my memory is telling me he was dead last in this calculation.

I was able to find another sheet though, comparing him against Adam Dunn for this calculation that year. I don't know how to demonstrate this idea any better:

Adam Dunn and his .204 overall batting average on the season produced a higher percentage of possible runs while up to bat (9.3% vs 8.0%) than Mauer did while batting .319. I'll repeat, Adam Dunn was a better overall run producer by batting .204 than Mauer was by batting .319.

Therefore Joe Mauer should swing less than Adam Dunn.

Mauer isn't a power hitter, and never has been. When you accept this then Mauer's approach makes perfect sense. It maximizes output from a skillset that's frankly more limited than people think. Certainly more limited than Dunn's.

Consider, in 2012, Mauer needed 98 swings to hit a home run. He needed 3.0 to produce an out.

Dunn needed 29 swings to hit a home run, and 2.8 to produce an out.

Two different batters, two very different swing-take equations. If anything, its remarkable the results were so similar. It just shows how incredibly good at collecting hits Mauer was, and how incredibly bad at collecting everything that wasn't a K, BB, or HR Dunn was.

They're a fun tandem to compare.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Willihammer

Seth Stohs · February 6, 2015

Has Lewis Thorpe not been mentioned in the discussion? How!? His health is crucial right now. If he overcomes this injury without losing a season, he instantly becomes a top 5-7 prospect.

No, he hasn't... people apparently prefer to discuss the value of stats over the players...

but i think you're right. Health is the key for Thorpe. Here's hoping!!

Jeremy Nygaard · February 6, 2015

Jeremy is leaving slots 9-13 open because by mid-season his rankings will look something like this:

8. Lewis Thorpe
9. Max Murphy
10. Max Murphy
11. Max Murphy
12. Max Murphy
13. Max Murphy
14. Max Kepler
15. Taylor Rogers

Obviously, Murphy will be so good he'll need multiple slots. Taking on kind of bonus pool money characteristic.

I wasn't just going to dump my whole list on there... I wanted to show how they were bunched up.

BTW - I am assigned to write a couple Top 10s. If Murphy doesn't show up by then... HE JUST MIGHT!!!

nater79a · February 6, 2015

I wasn't just going to dump my whole list on there... I wanted to show how they were bunched up.

BTW - I am assigned to write a couple Top 10s. If Murphy doesn't show up by then... HE JUST MIGHT!!!

Just giving you a hard time, Jeremy.

Maybe by mid-season Max will have "graduated" from the the prospect lists and instead be playing in the MLB All-Star Game in Cincy!

nater79a · February 6, 2015

No, he hasn't... people apparently prefer to discuss the value of stats over the players...

but i think you're right. Health is the key for Thorpe. Here's hoping!!

Thorpe did come to the Twin Cities last Fall to get the elbow checked out so hopefully everything is fine. You just never know with those UCL's though.

Thegrin · February 6, 2015

Not tryin to highjack the thread... but this is killing me, every time I log on

"15 days and 19 hours remaining until Twins pitchers & catchers report to Ft. Myers"

It moves so slow, it almost seems to be moving backwards

Jeremy Nygaard · February 6, 2015

Just giving you a hard time, Jeremy.

Maybe by mid-season Max will have "graduated" from the the prospect lists and instead be playing in the MLB All-Star Game in Cincy!

Greatest Twin to ever come from Bradley University! :rolleyes:

You all realize that my feelings for Murphy stem from me correctly projecting the Twins drafting him exactly when they did... and then him tearing up the Appy League. It was a snowball that just ~~kept~~ keeps rolling.

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