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This year is different. Obviously, when the Twins are picking fourth, fifth or sixth, there are only so many players and combinations of them that can go before the Twins were picking. Drafting at 15 makes things more difficult. Having a handful of players whose signability is being questioned makes it infinitely more difficult.
Even as the draft approaches - it’s only three days away! - it’s being described as being a “long ways away.” Seems ridiculous, right? Not really. There are still a number of high school pitchers who have unknown price tags. We heard last week that the Twins weren’t going to be able to get Manning done with their draft slot at 15. It’s entirely possible that we could be adding more prep pitchers into that category as the week progresses. Why is that happening? Because the teams at the top of the draft - the Phillies, Braves and Reds - have so much money that they can spread it out among their first few picks, essentially taking players off the board before they’re selected.
So even if the Twins have settled on their Top 15, there’s a strong chance that none of those players are actually “available” when the Twins come to the podium. Make sense?
What you’re going to see below is not a guess at how the Twins have their board stacked, but instead how I would stack my own board… with the caveat that whichever player is drafted will sign for slot at pick 15. I know that’s an impossibility, but without knowing every player that has a high price tag, this is the best way to fairly assess the talent.
1) A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. I’m not totally sold on Puk - especially after his last start - but you could do worse than taking a left-handed pitcher who throws mid-90s. The combination of ceiling and floor makes Puk the relatively easy choice to take first overall.
2) Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS. I debated Groome vs Pint as top prep pitcher, but Groome’s curveball and the fact he’s young for his class gives him a ceiling of an ace-starter and there are never enough of them.
3) Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. Sure, he hasn’t played against the best competition and that magnifies some of the questions about his bat, but his no one can match his ceiling as a hitter and he appears athletic enough to stay in center field.
4) Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard to look at a prep pitcher who throws 100+ and not assume he’s going to need Tommy John surgery sometime soon. For me, it’s hard to look at Pint and not think he’s going to be Max Scherzer in a handful of years. If Pint was a little more consistent with his breaking stuff, I’d rank him above Groome.
5) Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Ray doesn’t have Lewis’s loud power tool. In fact, he lacks any significant carrying tool (unless you want to count his speed). What Ray offers, though, is enough with the bat and glove to project him with an MLB floor, which isn’t easy to do.
6) Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Senzel’s calling card is his hit tool and there is a lack of that quality in this draft. Good enough to stick on the left side of the infield, Senzel is another high-floor, top-10 pick.
7) Mickey Moniak, OF, California HS. Moniak has the chops to stay in center field and has the hit tool to project as an everyday player, though he’ll probably not add much power as he develops.
8) Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS. Garrett is the safest of all the prep arms, equipped with a MLB-ready curveball already. The Twins would love him at 15, if he’s available.
9) Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS. Young but unfairly compared to Carlos Correa, Perez may have the highest ceiling in the whole class. Will he hit though?
10) Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. People are going to do the “another reliever” thing with Dunn if the Twins pick him, but his electric arm is quickly becoming a favorite of mine. For being a relatively fresh arm (that can run it up to 99 mph), he offers a high floor to go with an extremely high ceiling.
11) Ian Anderson, RHP, New York HS. I tried not to dock Anderson for his signability questions and when lined up with Dunn, I have them ranked very closely. Dunn, though smaller, gave me less durability concerns than Anderson, which is why I rank Anderson one spot lower.
12) Alex Kirilloff, OF, Pennsylvania HS. Kirilloff projects to be a good hitter with potential plus power and a good enough arm to play right field. Though I’d always err on the side of pitching, Kirilloff is one hitter who may be on the board at 15 that I’m sold on.
13) Dakota Hudson, P, Mississippi State. I had come around on Hudson before he struggled in his last start. He battles with command, but I’ve been told he may have the best “stuff” in the draft. My concern is the Twins would try to clean up the delivery in hopes that it will improve command, but instead it will cause his “stuff” to play down.
14) Blake Rutherford, OF, California HS. Rutherford is a year older than most other prep players and appears to be physically mature, so there isn’t as much upside as you’d typically get with a high schooler. There’s still a lot of things to like in his bat - I’m just not as sold as some others.
15) Matt Manning, RHP, California HS. I always feel like there’s more to unlock in multi-sport starts and Manning, who is committed to play both baseball and hoops at Loyola Marymount, has plenty of raw ability already, hitting 98 mph with his fastball. I believe Manning has a deal with the Padres.
16) Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Quantrill missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but was a legitimate Top 5 candidate before the injury. He has the upside on a #1 starter and likely won’t make his professional debut until Spring Training 2017, nearly 23 months following his procedure.
17) Zack Collins, C, Miami. Collins has the bat to profile as a big-leaguer, but there are questions about his defensive home. He’ll need time to develop behind the plate, but teams might want to push his bat through their system quicker, shifting him to a corner, likely first base.
18) Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. Guys who can throw triple-digits and profile with a clean enough delivery have to be considered first-round picks. While Burdi’s ultimate home is probably in the bullpen, he’s an intriguing option for teams in the middle of the first round.
19) Joey Wentz, LHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard not to factor signability into ranking Wentz, who is committed to Virginia. He’s backed off the mid-90s that he was throwing early in his season, but still offers the upside of a front-end starter.
20) Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS. The big-bodied Texan beat out a number of college pitchers for the last spot on this list. There are conditioning questions, but he’s got present ability that projects to play up as he continues to work his body into shape.
Just missed: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois and T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh
Other draft-related articles:
What does your board look like?
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