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  • Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects: #1 Royce Lewis


    Nick Nelson

    It says a lot about Royce Lewis that he could probably write this profile about himself and it would be more accurate – encompassing all the good and bad – than anything I could hope to draft.

    Mature, wise, and self-aware beyond his years, Lewis possesses an extremely rare makeup that has many people (including myself) convinced he'll harness his incredible talent and turn into a big-league star. It's only a matter of when.

    Twins Video

    Age: 18 (DOB: 6/5/99)

    2017 Stats (Rookie/Low-A): 239 PA, .279/.381/.407, 4 HR, 27 RBI

    ETA: 2020

    2017 Ranking: NA

    National Top 100 Rankings

    BA: 24 | MLB: 20 | ESPN: 25 | BP: 27

    What's To Like

    It's tough to weigh things like disposition and character in prospect evaluations, especially from afar. Clearly they matter, but to to what extent? And how can you really quantify such intangible and subjective qualities?

    It's easier to focus on the concrete and palpable: skills, athleticism, body type. And in each of these areas, Lewis grades out beautifully. But you can't really talk about him as a player without mentioning his striking composure.

    You can plainly see from watching him talk that the 18-year-old, not a year removed from high school, is unusually sharp and eloquent for his age. He was invited to appear at TwinsFest in January, a rarity for freshly drafted teenagers but a no-brainer in his case. Upon being selected first overall last June, he stashed his $6.7 million signing bonus in a trust fund, opting to live off his modest minor-league wage and foregoing the typical flashy celebratory splurge.

    “This guy has a chance to change a franchise with his personality and charisma,” said Twins scouting director Sean Johnson upon selecting Lewis. “He’s a magnet. People want to be around him.”

    Count Lewis's first manager in the system, Ramon Borrego, as a believer. Er, unbeliever.

    “He’s unbelievable," said the Gulf Coast League skipper. "He knows how to focus. The good thing about him, is he’s very humble. This kid is different."

    Personality. Charisma. Focus. Humility.

    These are good traits in that they project a leader and high-caliber clubhouse presence. But they're also overprescribed and, at times, overblown. It's about what you can do on the field.

    Fortunately, Lewis's intellect and acumen extend there as well. He's lauded for his baseball IQ, grasping the game's complexities naturally. He recognizes his own weaknesses and limitations in a way you don't often see.

    When you ask around, you hear the same thing about Lewis repeatedly: He gets it. He's not presumptive or entitled, and anyone can see it. He's also a realist:

    "They told me to play at short until I prove I can't," Lewis said last month, candidly adding: "I know I can always transition to center field and play at a high level."

    Regardless of where he ends up defensively, he figures to be an asset with his top-end speed (he's no Byron Buxton, but he's not that far off) and smooth movements.

    Lewis's hitting tools are advanced, which was made obvious by his bat's seamless entry into the pro ranks. Lewis posted an .803 OPS in the GCL, with more walks than strikeouts, and impressed the organization so much he was promoted straight to Cedar Rapids in August. He ended up being the third-youngest player to take an AB in the Midwest League.

    Despite facing opponents nearly three years older on average, Lewis more than held his own, batting .296/.363/.394. He finished 18-for-21 on stolen bases between the two levels.

    The No. 1 pick is a speedy, selective, disciplined contact hitter, and prospect analysts are unanimous in believing that more power – perhaps much more – is on the way as he fills out.

    Once that element of his game arrives, Lewis could become the true embodiment of a five-tool player.

    What's Left To Work On

    Adding muscle mass will be a key area of focus in the next couple of seasons. Lewis checked in last year at 6'2" and under 190 lbs.

    "I feel like I haven't grown into any of my man strength yet," as he puts it.

    He's already well on his way to bulking up, having reportedly added around 15 pounds in the offseason. It would be no surprise to see a rapid uptick in power, which would place him on a mind-boggling trajectory offensively.

    The more interesting thing to track right now is his defensive development. The Cali native didn't play shortstop until his senior year of high school, and was – according to ESPN's Keith Law – "well-below-average" at the position as a prep. Lewis showed reasonably well at short in his pro debut, but the jury is out, to say the least.

    If his efforts in the weight room lead to improved arm strength, that could change this outlook.

    What's Next?

    "I'm patient. I'm still only 18 and don't turn 19 until June." More astute words from the man himself.

    Patience is warranted. Lewis is the best player on our Top 20 list but also the youngest. He finds himself on the fast track after tackling Low-A within three months of being drafted, but the Twins will probably take it somewhat slow with him, even if he forces the issue on his end.

    For comparison, Buxton – who hardly could have performed better during his rapid ascent through the minors – didn't reach the majors until three years and eight days after his draft date. That same timeline would put Lewis in a Twins uniform around June of 2020.

    However, Lewis is already ahead of Buxton's pace, and Buck also lost nearly an entire season in the minors to injury. So, who knows.

    Right now Lewis has a fair shot at beating the precedent set by Buxton, and possibly even fellow first overall pick Joe Mauer, who first donned a Minnesota uniform at age 20, on the third Opening Day after he was drafted.

    If Lewis remains on a fast track and moves to center along the way, as many expect, it's going to create an interesting dilemma given Buxton's presence. But that's a dilemma the Twins will be happy to have on their hands.

    TD Top Prospects: 16-20

    TD Top Prospects: 11-15

    TD Top Prospect: #10 Akil Baddoo

    TD Top Prospect: #9 Brusdar Graterol

    TD Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow

    TD Top Prospects: #7 Brent Rooker

    TD Top Prospects: #6 Wander Javier

    TD Top Prospects: #5 Alex Kirilloff

    TD Top Prospects: #4 Stephen Gonsalves

    TD Top Prospects: #3 Nick Gordon

    TD Top Prospects: #2 Fernando Romero

    TD Top Prospects: #1 Royce Lewis

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    I don't follow anyone on twitter, personally I think it's stupid, but there is (to me) a rather profound difference between being on Social Media and showing one's hind end on a routine basis.

     

    Thas is literally a straw man argument, compared to what was posted here.

     

    I love Rooker on Twitter, but he's quite active and quite vocal. 180 degrees from what they supposedly like about Lewis. 

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    I don't follow anyone on twitter, personally I think it's stupid, but there is (to me) a rather profound difference between being on Social Media and showing one's hind end on a routine basis.

     

    It would be nice to put the social media controversy here into proper perspective and then to put it to bed.

    It's not about the use of social media per se. The source cited by Parker, I'm positive, was simply pointing out that Lewis isn't a self-absorbed, attention-hungry narcissist but instead is a humble, team-oriented, mature, gracious young man. No one's saying the opposite is true about every active user. Are they?

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    Thas is literally a straw man argument, compared to what was posted here.

     

    I love Rooker on Twitter, but he's quite active and quite vocal. 180 degrees from what they supposedly like about Lewis.

    I'm sure they weigh many things that aren't dealbreakers.

    They never said they don't draft guys on social media.

     

    If they'd said that one of the reasons they drafted Lewis was because of his speed, would you interpret that to mean that they won't draft anyone who is slow?

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    This young man makes it difficult for the "glass half empty voices on this site" to say anything negative. Hard worker,humble and just gets it. It doesnt matter what position he ends up playing Lewis will be fun to watch mature.

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    we disagree. Imo, if you decide to pass on starting pitching when you have early picks, and don't like to trade prospects (as the FO was quoted as saying last week), you need to be great at hitting and defense. 

     

    I hope no one is going to come back and say it is "easy" to find good players later, since for the entire existence of this site, people said teams cycle in competitiveness based on when they draft....

    I'm not sure what you're getting at here... doesn't pretty much every MLB front office agree that drafting for need is a terrible idea? Some practice it better than others, but I've never heard a front office stray from that line of thinking publicly.

     

    If the Twins liked Lewis best, they should have drafted Lewis. It's that simple, really. Worry about filling other positions further down the draft because, chances are, you'll think a pitcher is the BPA somewhere in your first 2-3 picks.

     

    And the Twins did just that.

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    Foremost, if you're sitting in the #1 position in the draft, it's almost by definition stupid to take a pitcher due to the risk.  That pitcher would have to be a college pitcher who sets himself apart from not only the other pitchers but maybe the past decade of pitchers and of course the hitters.  I think Strasburg is an example of that.  But if Harper is in that draft, you don't take Strasburg.

     

    I have no issue with the Twins taking Lewis number one, especially given that doing so allowed some financial freedom and creativity.  However, let's not forget we're only going to get a partial season and six full years before he hits free agency.  Scott Boras isn't about to change his ways wrt his players playing out their team control asap.  And knowing that, the Twins will really be facing decisions on whether to trade Lewis by his second or third full year.

     

    That's not optimal.

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    I'm not sure what you're getting at here... doesn't pretty much every MLB front office agree that drafting for need is a terrible idea? Some practice it better than others, but I've never heard a front office stray from that line of thinking publicly.

     

    If the Twins liked Lewis best, they should have drafted Lewis. It's that simple, really. Worry about filling other positions further down the draft because, chances are, you'll think a pitcher is the BPA somewhere in your first 2-3 picks.

     

    And the Twins did just that.

    there was no clear BPA.... And now you can find good players outside the top ten picks? Winning teams don't have to cycle down?

     

    All I'm saying is, if you should away from pitchers, you either need to trade for them, or sign free agents or get lucky. They've indicated by their actions they don't sign elite free agents, or trade for them.... So, it is down to luck.

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    there was no clear BPA.... And now you can find good players outside the top ten picks? Winning teams don't have to cycle down?

    All I'm saying is, if you should away from pitchers, you either need to trade for them, or sign free agents or get lucky. They've indicated by their actions they don't sign elite free agents, or trade for them.... So, it is down to luck.

    Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take.

     

    Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.

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    Hey I resemble that remark Brock! I'm definitely in the camp that you take the BPA and that pitchers are very risky. Houston is a great example. I would say the great majority of our top pitchers came from other than the top of the draft. It is the same for other teams as well. Right now our top guy berrios was a supplemental pick amid the #1 in the staff is Gibby.

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    Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take.

     

    Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.

     

    Didin't they trade for a great pitcher last year?

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    Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take.

     

    Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.

     

    We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

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    We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

    I'll also let it drop but it's not that it's impossible to get good players, it's just a lot harder when you don't have a "gimme" pick at the top and then the ability to draft intelligently down the board. You only have the option to draft intelligently down the board and the hit rate between good and bad teams on those picks is a pretty small gap (but that gap makes all the difference in the world when you nail the pick on a guy down the board every other draft or so).

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    Didin't they trade for a great pitcher last year?

    Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.

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    "Upon being selected first overall last June, he stashed his $6.7 million signing bonus in a trust fund, opting to live off his modest minor-league wage and foregoing the typical flashy celebratory splurge."

    Probably more like 3.7 million after taxes but on the surface of it  he's either  a smart kid or has some smart advisors.      Not only is he set for life he can still say "Sorry, I can't pick up this check cuz I don't have access to the money."    

     

    That's still going to generate a six figure income on a yearly basis... very smart move. He can do whatever he wants for the rest of his life if baseball fails. 

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    Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.

     

    no one is arguing to give up on Lewis. No one is arguing he doesn't look to have a great future.

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    no one is arguing to give up on Lewis. No one is arguing he doesn't look to have a great future.

    Oh, I'm not saying you are, only that it's close to impossible to get a very good starting pitcher without him being included in the deal.

     

    Here's hoping the Twins have a couple of prospects step forward in the coming years so that holes can be filled with legitimately above average players in trade.

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    Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.

     

    I would argue that given the depth of the system at SS, trading a guy like Lewis for an ace makes sense... unless you think this kid is the next Trout. I don't think that's the case personally, and while I'm happy that the front office (thus far at least) appears to have hit a home run, this home run can be turned around to make our current team a legit playoff team. 

     

    BPA works great until you find yourself rather lacking in an area.  You have to supplement that area at some point, whether by FA or trades. We are at a point where we need to supplement it, and I'm not sure Lewis should be off the table in that regard if it gets us an ace. 

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    I would argue that given the depth of the system at SS, trading a guy like Lewis for an ace makes sense... unless you think this kid is the next Trout. I don't think that's the case personally, and while I'm happy that the front office (thus far at least) appears to have hit a home run, this home run can be turned around to make our current team a legit playoff team. 

     

    BPA works great until you find yourself rather lacking in an area.  You have to supplement that area at some point, whether by FA or trades. We are at a point where we need to supplement it, and I'm not sure Lewis should be off the table in that regard if it gets us an ace. 

    I'm not saying Lewis should be off the table, I'm only saying he should be off the table right now.

     

    Because I strongly feel that while he's a 25-ish prospect right now, he'll be a top ten guy by season's end.

     

    Which means he can centerpiece a deal for basically any pitcher on the market and other teams can't beat the offer. Right now, that's not the case. You'll be tossing in other quality prospects to match other teams, likely good prospects with real upside like Thorpe or Gonsalves.

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    We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

    I'm not sure if you're referring to my posts where I've basically said that the Twins down years (11-14) were because of a natural cycle of late drafts catching up to them after a decade of generally late picks. If it is, I've never said you had to draft a pitcher. You're just less likely to get elite talent if you're picking 24th every year. 

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    We're on a tangent, so I'll let it go. But this is bookmarked for the next time I read the Twins can't compete year after year because if you draft late you can't get good players.

     

    You're attempting to pin a simple faulty conclusion on us here, and I'm urging you to avoid this rhetorical technique when you have so much to offer without it, my friend. That's a simplistic statement we don't hear on these threads.

     

    Lewis gets ranked by BA just a few slots ahead of the other four, the pitchers. Greene is still viewed as having ace upside, but the consensus is that there is a boatload of refinement work on his horizon, and therefore no massive amount of confidence about him from most evaluators. Of the other three, Gore ekes out a tiny edge in terms of optimism for future acehood. The other two, Wright and McKay, are getting more #2 than #1 hype these days. All this just reinforces a view that, if you think Lewis is their "equal", and perhaps gets an edge because of his inherent risk advantage over pitchers and his makeup, you take him. Lewis over Greene and Buxton over Gausman, I say.

     

    Your statement above, using the words "good players" doesn't help us sort through much of anything. But let's think about the difference between an "ace" and a front-of-the-rotation starter. The second guy is part of a very large spectrum. The ace very much less so, agreed? And so dang rare!!!

     

    So how do teams get "good players" who are pitchers who are aces? Mike, they hardly EVER do. Even when they do, it's more often Verlander, who is no longer giving you #1 performance, or it's Sale, who required a future ace, Kopech, as part of the return along with the best prospect in all of baseball and two other good prospects.

     

    I say, forget worrying about aces and concentrate on finding front-line talent. The Twins only have three such prospects that we know of in the pipeline (Romero, Enslow, and Graterol), and that's not enough. But please, Mike, let's stop repeatedly citing Ryan's irrelevant history of failure on this. Find me indicators that Falvey is going to fail if you want to bolster your case for pessimism. He failed to land Ohtani and had to settle for a couple of decent prospects in exchange for IFA pool dough in that long shot effort. He missed on Darvish. He passed on some talent to take Lewis instead, and then he hit on Enslow.

     

    Looking at BA's Top 100, there are almost NO pitching prospects outside of Ohtani that would garner a consensus view that they're destined to be aces, and that includes the couple dozen 1st-round picks. Take CWS, for example. They have 5 pitchers on it who were 1st round selections. Cease came to them with Eloy Jiminez in exchange for Quintana. He has #2 ceiling at best. Fullmer is destined for the bullpen. Zacch Burdi too, IF he recovers from injury. Dunning is at best a #3, like our Gonsalves. Hansen, an early2nd rounder, is a #3. So Kopech is the one guy who gets a #1-2 label out of 5 1st round selections. Clevland's 1st rounder, McKenzie, is a #2. Detroit's Faedo and Manning, probably the same thing, maybe less.

     

    All of this is just to say, yes, finding front line guys is really hard. For everyone. You can draft them (Berrios), you can find them occasionally via the IFA (Romero, Graterol), and you can trade for them once in awhile but you need assets to trade. Dozier should net a front line starter, and I for one am glad they didn't settle for DeLeon. Or, you can sign one as a FA. They missed on the only one out there this time.

     

    Personally, I like Falvey's chances of building a decent rotation. Just not in time for the 2018 season..

     

    So Mr. Falvey, thank you for letting your scouts do their work and point you in the direction of the BPA in Royce Lewis.

     

     

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    I know alot of Twins were upset by not taking Wright, Gore or Greene but I'd bet strong money that Lewis turns into a star barring an injury.  The kid not only is blessed with all the physical tools but by having a great head on his shoulders and completely grounded.  If you didn't know better you'd think he was a mid round draft pick and he hangs with the players that are, but on the diamond there is no mistake that he is an elite talent. 

     

    When he first got on the scene in Ft Myers (before the GCL season started), Royce was in a scrimmage game with Kohl Stewart pitching to him for two at bats.  I talked to Kohl after the game about Royce and what he thought about his talent, and Kohl said "he's got better hands than Buxton does at this point".  I asked him to elaborate and Stewart said Lewis was not only making adjustments between at bats but within at bats and that Royce's hards are very steady while Buxton is constantly moving his hands.  

     

    6/24/17

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvVY_NEHLcw

     

    When Royce started the season in the GCL, he did not look like a SS, he looked like a really athletic kid who they stuck at the position. Despite his blazing speed his footwork was well below average, but with more reps and working with coaches, it improved leaps and bounds in just a couple of months.  His arm, while I have defended it on numerous occasions, did appear average to slightly above.  One of my biggest gripes was his near "crow hop" throwing motion from the position but it lessened throughout the GCL season as well.  He definitely has the talent and aptitude to stick at the position but I'm wondering if his bat and speed abilities are going to be so far ahead of his defensive prowess that the team might just move him to the outfield to get him to the show quicker.  I won't be shocked if he's not in the MLB before his 21st birthday; he's that talented.

     

    Here are a few videos I took of Royce in the GCL:

     

    6/30 and 7/1 hitting, running and fielding

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C29KTFqS51U

     

    7/4 hitting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5C5o_GoSP0

     

    7/22 hitting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Chl23GgzMMo

     

    8/4 -8/5 hitting

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKE9Mfh9TZQ

    Edited by Bob Sacamento
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    I initially wanted a pitcher as well (Gore or Greene), but I'm thrilled that they picked Lewis.
    He's going to be a star, IMO.

    Same here... I didn't read about him at all until a few hours before the draft and was loving it.  Wasn't feeling McKay at all. Wright scared me.  I wanted Greene but I wasn't sure.  I think Gore would be a great pick but he seemed to be the 4th best value at pitcher for that pick and it'd be hard to reach that much.  Then I read about Lewis.  Athletic as hell.  Even better intangibles.  The kicker?  Coming at a discount to get another guy... After Rooker and Leach, I was skeptical again (they didn't seem like the high dollar guy, and I wanted the Minnesota Pitcher) but then we got Enlow.  Loved that.

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    Bob... I saw him in Cedar Rapids and for some reason when I saw him, he reminded me of George Springer.  Not sure why exactly, but just made me think of him.  Thoughts?

    Not the first time I've heard the comp and as Lewis ages that seems a similar body type for him to fill out to. I'm not sure on the power developing as to Springer's level and I'd hope Royce keeps some of his speed (and develops more basestealing technique) as he ages.

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