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  • The Duffey Dilemma


    Seth Stohs

    The Minnesota Twins bullpen has been a problem for the last couple of months. Finding a bridge from the Twins starters to All-Star closer Glen Perkins has been a challenge. As the July trade deadline is now one week away, we are likely to hear lots of rumors involving relievers, but there are a few guys in the minor leagues who warranty consideration for a big league bullpen gig, including right-handed starter Tyler Duffey.

    Image courtesy of Kelsie Redburn/Rochester Red Wings

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    Duffey began the 2014 season with four starts in Ft. Myers. He moved up to Double-A and then ended his season with three starts in Triple-A Rochester. He earned an invitation to big league camp, but then he began this season back in Double-A, this time with Chattanooga. He had to be disappointed, but he handled it well. He made eight starts and went 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 52.2 innings.

    He earned a promotion back to Triple-A Rochester. In his first four starts for the Red Wings, he went 0-4 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in just 22.1 innings. Opponents hit .312/.340/.387 (.727) against him.

    However, he has made some adjustment and in his seven starts since then he is 4-1 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP over 48.1 innings. Opponents have hit just .174/.230/.236 (.466).

    While with Chattanooga, he had a streak of 16.2 innings without allowing a run. With the Red Wings, he had a streak of 33.2 innings without allowing an earned run.

    In most recent Twins seasons, Duffey would likely already be making starts in Minnesota. However, the Twins starting rotation has been strong this season. Even if the Twins were to remove a starter from their current rotation, Trevor May would be the guy who would jump back into the starting rotation.

    No offense to Taylor Rogers or JO Berrios (who had another strong start on Thursday), but if the Twins needed a starter from Rochester, Duffey would have to be the choice.

    That brings us back to the Twins struggling bullpen. Is it time for the Twins to give Tyler Duffey an opportunity in their bullpen?

    Duffey has been primarily a starter in the Twins minor league system. You recall, however, that the Twins drafted Duffey in the fifth round of the 2012 draft. At Rice University, he was a reliever. He was a co-closer with JT Chargois (current closer in Chattanooga). In other words, the bullpen role would not be unfamiliar to him.

    If the Twins were to call up Duffey in the next couple of weeks to pitch out of their bullpen, it wouldn’t have to mean that he would need to remain a reliever. Depending on the Twins offseason, he could be moved back to the starting role in the 2016 season if that makes sense. It would be a move to help them in their hopes to make the playoffs in 2015.

    That isn’t to say that you call him up and immediately throw him into the eighth inning. The goal would simply be for him to help bridge the gap from starter to Perkins. There are games when they need a guy to finish the sixth or pitch a couple of innings. Duffey can do that.

    His transition to starter happened in the Twins minor leagues in 2013, his first full pro season. As he told Twins Daily in a spring training interview, “Except for a summer when I went to the Cape and somebody got sick and I made a couple of starts, but other than that, I was a closer/second-inning panic guy to come in and throw four innings.”

    His stuff is ready for the big leagues as a starter. As a starter, he works with a fastball in the low-90s. His best pitch is his 12-6 curveball. He also has a decent change-up. In his limited time in pro ball when he has worked out of the bullpen, his fastball has touched 97. He said that one of the keys to his success has been his sinker. He is a ground ball pitcher.

    Duffey is not currently on the Twins 40-man roster. He would need to be added, though I’m sure the Twins could find someone to remove from the roster if a move were needed.

    There are relievers in Rochester who have pitched well in AAA and deserve an opportunity as well. Michael Tonkin has been back and forth between the Red Wings and Twins for the last three years. At some point, they just have to give him an opportunity and stick with him for an extended period of time. He is out of options in 2016.

    If there is a most-deserving reliever in Rochester, it has to be AJ Achter. The former 46th round draft pick has been consistently terrific since being moved to the bullpen before the 2012 season. He debuted last September with the Twins. With the Red Wings this year, he is 4-2 with a Twins minor league-leading 14 saves. He has a 2.81 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in 41.2 innings for the Red Wings. He’s walked just 2.6 per nine innings while striking out 9.3 per nine innings.

    Starter Taylor Rogers, a southpaw, has limited left-handed AAA hitters to just a .189/.206/.197 (.403) line this year. With Brian Duensing improved of late and Ryan O’Rourke doing very well in his two weeks with the Twins, particularly against lefties, Rogers should continue to start for Rochester. However, he should also be a strong consideration for September recall.

    JO Berrios is certainly the top prospect in Rochester. The 21-year-old dropped his AAA ERA from 5.60 to 4.01 with seven shutout innings on Thursday. He has very good stuff and will likely be considered for a promotion in August as well. He doesn’t need to be added to the Twins 40-man roster until after the 2016 season, but if the Twins believe he can help them win in 2015, they won’t hesitate to promote him.

    AJ Achter should already be in the Twins bullpen. Tyler Duffey should be strongly considered as a bullpen arm down the stretch for the Minnesota Twins.

    If you’ve endured the past four seasons as a Twins fan, this dilemma – plenty of deserving candidates for promotion to the Twins – is more than welcomed!

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    But who gets replaced?  Unless it's another lefty, O'Rourke is probably staying.  May could get sent down, though that seems like a waste.  Graham is staying unless they Braves suddenly get generous.  To get a new lefty, Boyer has to be released.  To get two it absolutely needs to be Fien.

     

    I also don't get the hesitation to use the unproven guys late in games.  The proven guys are proving not to be able to handle it. 

     

    I'm not hesitant to use unproven guys if they are good. I just don't see it with the internal guys being mentioned outside of Duffey and Berrios, and I'm not calling up Berrios until late August unless he is replacing a starter.

     

    For who to replace - I would say Boyer is DFAed, and then May is either sent back to AAA or Pelfrey is flipped and May is back in the rotation.

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    Achter needs to be in the major league bullpen right now.  I'd also give some auditions to some of the other names mentioned earlier.

     

    I also think it'd be wise to trade for a solid reliever and give up a non-top 20 prospect for him. (seriously, if Kazmir was that cheap for the Astros to get, we probably don't have to give up much to get a reliever, right?)

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    Part of a prospects development is building up the amount of innings instead of making a large jump in one year.  Berrios is at 114 IP right now.  If you promote him now then he will probably top out at 130IP after 140 last year.  That might lead to him getting shut down next year, tiring down the stretch or possibly even getting injured (if you subscribe to the Verducci Effect). 

     

    But anyways his future is as a starter and potentially a very important one.  I am not interested in sidetracking him from that and as was said above he is potentially an option to be called up as a starter if anything happens.  once you get to September it is a benefit for him to get big league experience even if it is as a RP'er. 

     

    verducci effect is bunk. 100% no evidence it is true......Also, 130-140 is what a minor leaguer can do. Not sure what you are even saying.

     

    Plenty of other teams call up starters for a taste of the majors as a RP, then make them starters the next year. Even WS winners.....

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    How the F can Duffey have only given up ONE home run in 123 innings this year?!? That's just nuts. Nineteen starts and one home run?

     

    On the one hand, I think that's the very definition of unsustainable, especially because he gave up 17 last year. And it almost certainly a driving force for that 2ish ERA.

     

    On the other hand, I just need to see this. Does he throw a medicine ball up there?

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    Part of a prospects development is building up the amount of innings instead of making a large jump in one year.  Berrios is at 114 IP right now.  If you promote him now then he will probably top out at 130IP after 140 last year.  That might lead to him getting shut down next year, tiring down the stretch or possibly even getting injured (if you subscribe to the Verducci Effect). 

     

    But anyways his future is as a starter and potentially a very important one.  I am not interested in sidetracking him from that and as was said above he is potentially an option to be called up as a starter if anything happens.  once you get to September it is a benefit for him to get big league experience even if it is as a RP'er. 

    Seems like a crackpot theory IMO but for sake of argument, say its true. The cost of setting back Berrios' workload in 2016 to ~150 IP (instead of ~170) seems like a reasonable tradeoff compared to trading away players, doesn't it? There are costs with any approach but from where I'm standing, promoting from within always looks like the best bargain.

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    I think it makes a ton of sense to call up Duffey and or Achter. Duffey looks to have a future as a starter which potentially makes Milone expendable, but because he has significant bullpen experience makes him an attractive BP option now.

     

    On the other hand letting May rot in the bullpen is a complete total waste of resources.  My persistent thinking is that the Twins are trying to move Pelfrey. And the key word is trying.  Big whiner / Mike is falling back to earth and it looks more and more like the Twins might be stuck with him the rest of the season.  If he continues to slump you have to bench him in favor or May.

    Edited by laloesch
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    Of course the problem here is that the only BP guys on the active roster that can be sent down are May and O'Rourke, and they aren't actually a problem.

     

    Graham isn't a problem either, other than the way they use him, but the club's biggest issue with him is his lack of experience, which by now he probably has as much or more of than most of the arms they would call up from AAA.

     

    So we're back to the Boyer/Fein/Duensing issue, the guys who for some reason are at the same time the most trusted, and the biggest liabilities in the bullpen.  Trades or callups won't be beneficial or perhaps even possible until at least one, and hopefully two, are removed from the situation all together.  And I don't say that with any malice, I appreciate what each has done for this club in their time here.  It's time though, cords need to be cut.  If the Royals have the stones to cut ties with the much more accomplished Jason Frasor, the Twins should be able to do the same.

    Well said.

     

    Jettison Boyer, Fein, and Pelfrey and restore May to the rotation.

    Put Duensing on a short leash in light of the last season and two/thirds. Listen to offers because Rodgers can replace him.

    Trade for a good set up man at a price less than the Astros paid for Kazmir. 

    Promote Tonkin, Duffey, Oliveros (if healthy) and Achter in that order, as spots become available. That means you don't have to wait for the trade. Let's see what we have for the future.

    Use O'Rourke strictly as a LOOGY.

    Call up Berrios and Rodgers on the last day to be playoff eligible.

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    The real stubbornness might be in thinking Fien, Boyer et al are going to return to their previous levels of success, and that this will be good enough. Fortunately, we're hearing reports that this is not the thinking, but we'll see. The real dilemma is that none of these practically interchangeable pitchers- Duffey, Fien, Achter, Boyer, Oliveros, Thompson, Presley, O'Rourke, Duensing, Thielbar, Graham, May, Meyer, Rogers, Darnell, Tonkin- is adequate as a shutdown guy, a guy with sufficient command and control to consistently get you a key strikeout in late-inning situations.

     

    Ryan needs to go outside the system for that right now. He's got a dozen internal candidates to choose from and they're all sub-optimal choices.

    How do you know Duffey, Achter, O'Rourke and Rogers can be successful? They haven't even been given a chance yet.

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    How do you know Duffey, Achter, O'Rourke and Rogers can be successful? They haven't even been given a chance yet.

     

     

    I agree.  The Twins haven't even given Duffey, Achter, Rodgers, etc. a look yet and we have senior posters on here pronouncing these guys as substandard, AAAA's etc.  It's like, what the hell are you talking about?  They haven't even been given a chance yet and your already writing them off?  

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    This seems to be accepted thought by a lot of fans but I just don't get it. If they're going to add Berrios to the roster in a month anyway, why wait? Is missing 4-5 August starts in AAA really going to delay his development that much? Seems dubious IMO.

     

    Berrios doesn't need to be added this fall.  He was a 2012 pick out of HS.  He's not required.  He will be added when he's ready.

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    verducci effect is bunk. 100% no evidence it is true......Also, 130-140 is what a minor leaguer can do. Not sure what you are even saying.

     

    Plenty of other teams call up starters for a taste of the majors as a RP, then make them starters the next year. Even WS winners.....

     

    Not sure if this is true or not, but I do know that a lot of teams subscribe to it.  Berrios needs to start and he needs to get more innings, I don't see the point of putting him in the pen.  I have a different opinion for the likes of Duffey and Rogers who are more of the 5th starter type and could use some ML pen experience.  But let's remember, these are minor leaguers.  I'm not quite certain they will be better than the guys they replace.

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    verducci effect is bunk. 100% no evidence it is true......Also, 130-140 is what a minor leaguer can do. Not sure what you are even saying.

     

    Plenty of other teams call up starters for a taste of the majors as a RP, then make them starters the next year. Even WS winners.....

     

    Any evidence it's bunk?  Verducci's pre-season writeups are usually pretty good.  He had 10 pitchers he red-flagged for the 2014 season based age and innings increase in 2013 and I think 7 of those 10 experienced some sort of arm trouble in 2014.  I'll try and find the article, but I am pretty sure most teams abide buy into the effect these days.

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    Is there a study on effectiveness? The issue that comes up for building up innings is effectiveness later into games and later into the season, not just injuries. May is a great example, as he is building up innings he is far and away last in innings per start among Twins starters this year.

     

    And what is proven from that study is that previous injuries are the best predictor of future injuries. But of course it says nothing about what can best prevent the first injury (but in Carleton's defense no one knows).

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    This is not a dilemma at all:

     

    Does Duffy project as a top of the rotation pitcher?

    Are there other starting pitcher who prospects who project higher than him?

     

    (N and Y.)

     

    So you make him a reliever (in Rochester) and hope he becomes a top line reliever (think Perkins) or trade him.   Cannot bring average prospects up and hope to win. 

     

    As far as 2015 goes, May got dibs on the next rotation spot, and if they need another starter from the minors it will likely be Berrios, based on all the noise by the newspapers on Berrios these days.  That is the Twins' FO MO...  The writing is on the wall.

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    This is not a dilemma at all:

     

    Does Duffy project as a top of the rotation pitcher?

    Are there other starting pitcher who prospects who project higher than him?

     

    (N and Y.)

     

    So you make him a reliever (in Rochester) and hope he becomes a top line reliever (think Perkins) or trade him. Cannot bring average prospects up and hope to win.

     

    As far as 2015 goes, May got dibs on the next rotation spot, and if they need another starter from the minors it will likely be Berrios, based on all the noise by the newspapers on Berrios these days. That is the Twins' FO MO... The writing is on the wall.

    I... actually agree with every word of this post. Well done on all counts.
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    Ok...completely off the wall...as are many of the liners given up by the bullpen...but what about Pelfrey and Milone both moved to teams needing rotation depth for a couple of relievers, put May back in the rotation where he belongs and shouldn't have been removed from in the first place...and bring up Duffey for the 5th spot to see what he could do? Rogers on deck, so to speak.

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    Fein, like Guerrier and Burton, is overstaying his welcome. Thre was the slim chance that he was going to be dynamite this year and a non-contending Twins team would flip him to a contender for a prospect. Not happening.

     

     

    Boyer was one of those interesting projects. He is working hard because he wants to stay in the majors, give him credit for that. Is he replaceable. Sure. Are we doing anything about it? No.

     

    Duensing, like Burton last September where he was closing games to drive up his own worth it seemed and not really necessary as he wasn't coming back...give those innings to someone who will be pitching for you the next year. Right now, I would accept offers on Duensing and move him along. There is no way he will resign next season, unless he totally tanks elsewhere and needs a job. We have Thielbar. We can look at Rogers. We still have Thompson. Darnell is not a reliever. These guys are hungry and want to make major league money and will pitch their hearts out 12-15 times for the remainder of the season. That's it for a reliever now...like 15 appearances, maybe. Not many when you think about it.

     

    Take offers on Duensing, Boyer and Fein. Put them on the waiver wire and, along with Pelfrey, hope someone claims them. TR, don't even think about "they got us here, they stay here" bs. Think now, but also think the future. The now guys AREN'T EXCEPTIONAL in anyway. The future guys just may be, and we have a couple of choices for each tired old hand we send packing.

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    Pressly hasn't really "dominated" AAA, but has actually been reasonably effective in MLB.

     

    And Thompson, Thielbar, and Darnell have not really "dominated" AAA either.

     

    The two guys in your list who most "dominated" AAA (Oliveros and Meyer) have pitched a combined 9 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

     

    Not saying they are great options, but the Twins haven't really tested the more dominant AAA performers much.

     

    Maybe the word "dominate" is inaccurate and obscures the point, which is that every one of these guys has had periods of success in AAA, and for various reasons they have all failed to become viable high-leverage options for the big club. I put both Meyer and Oliveros in that category despite how few innings they threw, because they were colossal disappointments when they did get their chances. So, is Duffey any more likely than Tonkin or Presley to perform well as a 7-8 inning guy? I'm skeptical. If they want a shut-down guy, they have to go find him and probably overpay big time.

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    How do you know Duffey, Achter, O'Rourke and Rogers can be successful? They haven't even been given a chance yet.

     

    I have no idea at all. But based on the scouting reports on each of them, I think it would be a real stretch to think they could be inserted as 7-8 inning guys and have more success than, say, Presley or Tonkin, who have not been great options so far for varying reasons.

     

    Why would you want to take a chance that any of these four guys will be the answer as an alternative to Boyer and Fien as we compete for a postseason berth? If you're not going to go outside for a potential solution, sure, sound the cattle call and parade Duffey, Tonkin, Achter, and the rest of them out there. Just keep the parade going, like they've been doing all season. It might work out just fine.

    Edited by birdwatcher
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    I think there's something of a misconception going on here.  re:  calling up a MiLB starter and putting him in the bullpen.  It's really done to get that pitcher acclimated to the MLB environment [big city, bright lights, steak instead of hot dogs...] and get a taste of MLB batters.  We've seen them in the minors, call this a major league status check.

     

    Hey, sometimes they end up just sitting on the damn bench  :) 

     

     

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    I have no idea at all. But based on the scouting reports on each of them, I think it would be a real stretch to think they could be inserted as 7-8 inning guys

    Nobody is suggesting immediately inserting them as the 7-8 inning guys.  Everybody is suggesting that with a season-long lack of better alternatives to give these some major league exposure to see if they can help.

     

    With your plan (just wait for help from outside the org), we could well be shut out of any 2015 bullpen upgrades if we can't swing a reasonable trade next week.  Or we'll be FORCED to throw some untested guys into those 7-8 inning roles over the last two months of the season.

     

    Me?  I would have tried to collect more data on our internal options earlier in the season, AND tried to swing a midseason trade for help.  They are not mutually exclusive.

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    Nobody is suggesting immediately inserting them as the 7-8 inning guys. Everybody is suggesting that with a season-long lack of better alternatives to give these some major league exposure to see if they can help.

     

    With your plan (just wait for help from outside the org), we could well be shut out of any 2015 bullpen upgrades if we can't swing a reasonable trade next week. Or we'll be FORCED to throw some untested guys into those 7-8 inning roles over the last two months of the season.

     

    Me? I would have tried to collect more data on our internal options earlier in the season, AND tried to swing a midseason trade for help. They are not mutually exclusive.

    Exactly this. Once Stauffer imploded, we saw trouble was almost inevitable. That's when more aggressive measures should have been taken.
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    Fein, like Guerrier and Burton, is overstaying his welcome. Thre was the slim chance that he was going to be dynamite this year and a non-contending Twins team would flip him to a contender for a prospect. Not happening.

     

     

    Boyer was one of those interesting projects. He is working hard because he wants to stay in the majors, give him credit for that. Is he replaceable. Sure. Are we doing anything about it? No.

     

    Duensing, like Burton last September where he was closing games to drive up his own worth it seemed and not really necessary as he wasn't coming back...give those innings to someone who will be pitching for you the next year. Right now, I would accept offers on Duensing and move him along. There is no way he will resign next season, unless he totally tanks elsewhere and needs a job. We have Thielbar. We can look at Rogers. We still have Thompson. Darnell is not a reliever. These guys are hungry and want to make major league money and will pitch their hearts out 12-15 times for the remainder of the season. That's it for a reliever now...like 15 appearances, maybe. Not many when you think about it.

     

    Take offers on Duensing, Boyer and Fein. Put them on the waiver wire and, along with Pelfrey, hope someone claims them. TR, don't even think about "they got us here, they stay here" bs. Think now, but also think the future. The now guys AREN'T EXCEPTIONAL in anyway. The future guys just may be, and we have a couple of choices for each tired old hand we send packing.

     

    You can take offers, but realistically there is no market for Boyer or Fien.  Boyer's smoke and mirrors of the first half are lifting and Fien just hasn't been.....well....good this year.  As for Duensing, he might have a little value, but he has been very effective now in his last 10 appearances (12.2 IP, 3H, 2BB, 9K, 0ER) and as a contending team, how do you get rid of that, especially with this bullpen?  

     

    I would start with a DFA to Boyer and call up.....someone and if Fien doesn't pick it soon, I send him to AAA and call up someone else.

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    You can take offers, but realistically there is no market for Boyer or Fien. Boyer's smoke and mirrors of the first half are lifting and Fien just hasn't been.....well....good this year. As for Duensing, he might have a little value, but he has been very effective now in his last 10 appearances (12.2 IP, 3H, 2BB, 9K, 0ER) and as a contending team, how do you get rid of that, especially with this bullpen?

     

    I would start with a DFA to Boyer and call up.....someone and if Fien doesn't pick it soon, I send him to AAA and call up someone else.

    That's how I'd do it as well.
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    I don't buy this reliever narrative as stated above.

     

    Perkins and Graham were locked in.

     

    Fien, Thompson and Boyer were pitching above their ability early in the season and the Twins wisely rode them.

     

    Duensing was obviously bad but it seems the patience was rewarded. Stauffer not so much but they moved on.

     

    This leaves one clear spot as well as occasional 8 man bullpen and injury replacements.

     

    Th is is where they used Pressly, Tonkin, O'Rourke, Thielbar. Just because they haven't dipped into the next tier down doesn't mean it was a mistake. They went after wins aggressively when they had the chance. It was the right move.

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