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  • Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 5 (16-20)


    Seth Stohs

    Today, we continue to look at and recognize Minnesota Twins prospects. We've already discussed my choices for prospects 21-50, and now we enter the Top 20.

    This is a diverse group in that there are two prospects who will remain teenagers until at least spring training of 2017. They have already performed well for full-season teams. The other three in today's list are players that we could very well see in a Twins uniform sometime in 2017 thanks to putting up numbers in the upper levels.

    If you've missed any of the previous installments, check them out here:

    Part 1 (41-50)

    Part 2 (31-40)

    Part 3 (26-30)

    Part 4 (21-25)

    And then feel free to join the conversation. Ask questions, start thinking about your Top 30 or Top 50 list.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (photos of Top L to R: Luis Arraez, Lachlan Wells, Bottom L to R: Jake Reed, Adam Brett Walker)

    Twins Video

    Players eligible to be on this list include players who remain eligible for Rookie of the Year voting in 2017. That is to say, hitters with less than 130 at-bats and pitchers with less than 50 innings. (The list is preliminary. Following research for the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2017 - which Cody Christie, Jeremy Nygaard and I are working on - I’ll provide my final Top 30 prospects list.)

    Top Prospects 21-25

    #20 – Lachlan Wells - 19 – LHP – Cedar Rapids Kernels

    The Twins signed Wells out of Australia in August of 2014. He came to the States in 2015 and pitched very well in the GCL. He went 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in 47.1 innings. He began the 2016 season back in Extended Spring Training, but just as the short-season leagues were starting, he was promoted to Cedar Rapids. He was very good. In 12 starts, Wells went 6-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. In 71.1 innings, he walked 16 and struck out 63. Wells works in the low-90s, has three pitches and gets good movement from a somewhat funky delivery. Wells won’t turn 20 until the end of February.

    #19 – Luis Arraez - 19 – 2B – Cedar Rapids Kernels

    Arraez had a solid US debut in 2015 in the GCL. He hit .306/.377/.388 (.765) with 15 doubles and a triple. He began the 2016 season in Cedar Rapids. He was just 18 years old for the first ten days of the season. He became an everyday player about a week into the season and didn’t give it up. He hit, and hit, and hit, and hit. He ended the season hitting .347/.386/.444 (.830) with 31 doubles, three triples and three home runs. Signed as a 16-year-old from Venezuela in 2013, Arraez is listed at 5-10 and 155 pounds. He weighs more than that. Arraez is a hitter. He is a solid leadoff hitter despite not taking a lot of walks. He knows the strike zone and he is able to work a lot of long at-bats. He’s not fast. He played mostly second base, but they also had him DH quite frequently. He’s got work to do, but he can hit.

    #18 – Jake Reed - 24 – RH RP – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings

    Jake Reed was the Twins fifth-round pick in 2014 out of Oregon. His pro debut was very impressive. He gave up one earned run in 31 innings. He then went to the Arizona Fall League where he gave up one run in 12.2 innings. He skipped Ft. Myers to start the 2015 season, but late in the year, he was sent back to the Miracle where he found things again. He returned to the AFL and gave up zero runs over 10.2 innings. He was invited to big league spring training and started in Chattanooga again. He struggled for the season’s first two months, but he posted WHIP under 1.00 the final three months of the year. He spent August in AAA Rochester where he posted a 1.69 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Reed throws hard, hitting 98 often. He’s got a very sharp slider. He also gets a ton of movement which sometimes can lead to some walks, and some strikeouts. Reed just turned 24 last week. He should be invited to big league camp again this year with an opportunity to make his debut sometime in 2017.

    #17 – Adam Brett Walker - 24 – OF – Rochester Red Wings

    No prospect in recent years has given readers of Twins Daily more to discuss. Walker has become a polarizing talent in the system. And there is no question that he has talent. The Twins used their third-round pick in 2012 on the slugger from Jacksonville University. There is the bad, for sure. He strikes out a lot and isn’t a great defensive outfielder. However, he has continued to move up one level each year and continued to produce despite the strikeouts. However, there is the good too. Walker has as much power as anyone in the organization, big leagues or minor leagues. He led his league in home runs his first four minor league seasons. His 27 homers in AAA this year was good for second in the International League. He is a run producer. He will most likely spend a significant amount of time in Rochester again in 2017. Over the first three months, he struck out 42% of the time. After July 1, he struck out 34% of the time. Staying at the same level, will he be able to continue adjusting and reduce that percentage even more?

    #16 – Mitch Garver - 25 – C/1B – Chattanooga Lookouts/Rochester Red Wings

    Garver was the Twins ninth-round draft pick in 2014 out of New Mexico. In his first full season, he was the Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2014 in Cedar Rapids. He moved up to Ft. Myers for 2015. He hit very well in the Arizona Fall League a year ago. For the second straight year, he was brought to big league spring training. He began 2016 in Chattanooga where he hit .257/.334/.419 (.753) with 25 doubles, 11 homers and 66 RBI in 95 games. He was promoted to Rochester where he hit .329/.381/.434 (.815) with five doubles and a homer in 22 games. Garver is a solid, doubles hitter who could provide value as a catcher. The question with some earlier in his career was his defense. It was a work-in-progress early, but word started coming out in 2016 that his defense had improved to the point where there was much more comfort in his ability to catch in the big leagues. His pitching framing and caught-stealing percentage numbers were very strong in 2016. He heads back to the Arizona Fall League, and he is certain to be added to the Twins 40-man roster in November. He’ll head back to big league spring training and, pending free agent moves or trades, he will have a chance to be a big leaguer early in 2017, if not on Opening Day.

    So there you have it, my choices for Twins prospects 16-20. We’ll be back tomorrow with Part 6, Prospects 11-15.

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    Wells looks to have a fairly smooth delivery based on the 2016 video I watched. Has to get a lot out of a small 5'8" frame. And Arraez hit two stand-up triples, one to left, another to right-center, in the 2016 video I watched. Both excel against 2016 competition and should move up.

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    Man, reading about Reed's development reminds me of my naive optimism last spring.  To me he as trending towards being ready to contribute this year.  It might have taken a bit of leap forward.  However, he didn't leap forward, he stepped back.

     

    Stil, when you step back and look at the bigger picture, there is a lot to like.

     

    I lach Wells alacht.  But it seems like it would be good to slot him together with Thorpe.  Like 20a and 20b.  I mean, they're left-handed Australians.  Practically the same person.  I wonder if every Australian pitcher's dream is to be the guy who develops such a wicked slider that people call it "The Boomerang."  Actualy, that is probably their nightmare.  

     

    I'm with beckmt, but I guess I'm wondering if Turner is even in the top 15, or if he's fallen out of the 50 altogether.  Not sure which would surprise me more.

     

    This list is a lot of fun.  The last couple of years, they'd gotten kind of predictable, but this year the suspense is much greater.  I doubt if there are anymore Brusdal Graterol's out there, but I haven't seen Huascar Ynoa yet...

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    I agree that Garver seems low. Knowing who's coming up on the list, it looks like potential may be getting a bigger emphasis than performance. At this point I'm more excited about Garver than guys like Stewart who have just been okay in the minors so far or guys way off like Kiriloff or Javier. 

     

    Here's to hoping Garver makes if through AFL healthy. I don't quite know why you risk the health of your top catching prospect with a second straight trip to Arizona.

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    Man, reading about Reed's development reminds me of my naive optimism last spring.  To me he as trending towards being ready to contribute this year.  It might have taken a bit of leap forward.  However, he didn't leap forward, he stepped back.

     

    Stil, when you step back and look at the bigger picture, there is a lot to like.

     

    I lach Wells alacht.  But it seems like it would be good to slot him together with Thorpe.  Like 20a and 20b.  I mean, they're left-handed Australians.  Practically the same person.  I wonder if every Australian pitcher's dream is to be the guy who develops such a wicked slider that people call it "The Boomerang."  Actualy, that is probably their nightmare.  

     

    I'm with beckmt, but I guess I'm wondering if Turner is even in the top 15, or if he's fallen out of the 50 altogether.  Not sure which would surprise me more.

     

    This list is a lot of fun.  The last couple of years, they'd gotten kind of predictable, but this year the suspense is much greater.  I doubt if there are anymore Brusdal Graterol's out there, but I haven't seen Huascar Ynoa yet...

     

    This is the most that I've struggled with a Top 50 list in a few years. In recent years, the Top 20 or even 25 have been fairly easy to determine. With all of the "graduations," it's a lot more difficult... and I think a lot more room for discussion/debate, etc. 

     

    Wells and Thorpe have had a very similar path through the end of their Cedar Rapids season. Hopefully Wells can stay healthy. I think Thorpe has the higher upside, but as of today, comes with a little higher risk too. Both really good kids too. 

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    Wells looks to have a fairly smooth delivery based on the 2016 video I watched. Has to get a lot out of a small 5'8" frame. And Arraez hit two stand-up triples, one to left, another to right-center, in the 2016 video I watched. Both excel against 2016 competition and should move up.

     

    I know I've written this other places too, but Wells measured in at 6-1 and 186 pounds at spring training, so the 'listed' numbers are well off, probably from when he signed or something. Not sure if or when those things get updated. 

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    I agree that Garver seems low. Knowing who's coming up on the list, it looks like potential may be getting a bigger emphasis than performance. At this point I'm more excited about Garver than guys like Stewart who have just been okay in the minors so far or guys way off like Kiriloff or Javier. 

     

    Here's to hoping Garver makes if through AFL healthy. I don't quite know why you risk the health of your top catching prospect with a second straight trip to Arizona.

     

    I do try to toe a line between performance and ceiling, definitely leaning toward ceiling. I guess I am trying to guess which players will have the best careers in MLB (which, of course, is anything but scientific). 

     

    Garver was one of the tougher ones to rank, for sure. He's "hurt" by age-to-level, at least he has been, though he's kind of caught up with that. It doesn't matter in real life, but for what it is, it does hurt in prospect rankings. I'm very curious what the Twins do at catcher this offseason. 

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    Arraez - seems too low here.  His production at his age should drive him much much higher.  - Unless you think his stats are unsustainable due to peripherals - which there is an argument for. His position shouldn't be too much of a factor as I think he will end up in the OF.

     

    Wells - Is he really 5'8" still?  I thought I heard he grew

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    Having not thought enough about Walker to call him up in September, do you think the Twins waste a protection slot on the 40 man roster next month?  They still have Grossman and Schafer to ponder about.

     

    There is the bad, for sure. He strikes out a lot and isn’t a great defensive outfielder.

     

    Walker may not be a great defender, but I think he is a solid defender (Better than Grossman) IMO - Not that that's saying much.  

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    Regarding Arraez, I actually thought he was ranked a little too high! While it might be a little harsh, that body, and the way Jake Mauer handled him, screams DH. The bar for a future DH in low-A (even a 19 yr. old) is incredibly high, and revolves around light-tower power, not doubles and good contact skills.

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    I like Garver going to the AFL to get more time and continue to grow and showcase. I still would have liked him up for September, but I also get taking a good hard look at Murphy. Problem is, they didn't look long or hard enough at Murphy in September IMO.

     

    Garver's age doesn't bother me that much. He's not exactly pushing 30, can clearly hit a bit with gapped and some HR power and has a good arm. He's also playing a position that sometimes takes a little time to learn. My question is could he really be ready to start next season. If not, I'd think Rochester to start the season rather than sit on the bench.

     

    I kind of like Centeno as the backup catcher for 2017.

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    I want the Twins to win as much as possible come 2017. But I also dont want them to go "buy" a team in FA with the youth movement taking place. I'm still in favor of a veteran closer from somewhere, or Kintzler if you believe in him enough, but not both.

     

    I thought Pressly and Roger's acquitted themselves nicely last season, as did Chargois. Not as sure about Tonkin, but not sure he was used correctly. This should be the year where guys like Reed, Hildenberger, Jones and others finally get their foot in the doorway if opportunity, (along with others). And the great thing is, should someone get injured or need more AAA time, you're going to have another 3-4 guys just waiting to come up.

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    Couple points... I don't get the love for Turner.  Garver is a much better prospect.   Turner has no offensive upside, and while he's a better defender, Garver is no slouch there either.  Garver could be a legit major league starter, and with Turner's bat, I've got to think the best he's going to get is a Drew Butera type career.  Maybe I'm being hard here, but Garver has both out performed Turner and has done so at higher levels (despite starting lower) while being roughly the same age. 

     

    As for Wells, I think Thorpe has the higher ceiling (he gets more Ks and supposedly throws a bit harder), but two lost seasons really hurts... Flip side, he's still quite young.  Not sure what to think about him right now, but given his age and that he's going to be in FTM next season, that's pretty impressive.

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    If our #1 pick in June is does not top our list next midseason I will cry. We NEED to get this one more than right, and even a little lucky...please. The fact that there is not a few guys screaming out as the no-brainer pick(s) scares me even more. 

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    Garver will be a MLB catcher, I'm certain (barring injury)....imo, he should probably be higher ranked for that reason.

     

    I have no doubt that he'll be a Major League catcher... 

     

    He's the highest ranked player on the list that's been shared (16-50, he's 16). So without sharing who 1-15 are, I can't fairly ask you which of the 11-15 range types you'd rank lower than him... but tomorrow you can. :)

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    Reed and Garver could make good contributions to the 2017-20 Twins, with possibilities to be 1+ WAR per year. Arraez seems to be held back because of Twins management decisions, which is unfortunate logic - it will be interesting to see how new management treats players like him, where actual performance is above expected performance.

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    Murphy will be given every opportunity to start. Garver should also start, albeit at AAA Rochester. So the Twins still need a backup catcher. But doubt that they NEED to keep Centeno on the 40-man (barring who else they rid themselves of). Centeno COULD be resigned to a minor league contract. If Murphy flounder, or is just okay, then Garver could come up and share duties. And Turner better be at AAA in 2017, too. Fast track some of these guys a bit more. DOn't hold them back and fill the roster with AAAA wannabees.

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    I have no doubt that he'll be a Major League catcher... 

     

    He's the highest ranked player on the list that's been shared (16-50, he's 16). So without sharing who 1-15 are, I can't fairly ask you which of the 11-15 range types you'd rank lower than him... but tomorrow you can. :)

     

    :)

     

    Ya, I know that's a risky thing for me to type!

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    Murphy will be given every opportunity to start. Garver should also start, albeit at AAA Rochester. So the Twins still need a backup catcher. But doubt that they NEED to keep Centeno on the 40-man (barring who else they rid themselves of). Centeno COULD be resigned to a minor league contract. If Murphy flounder, or is just okay, then Garver could come up and share duties. And Turner better be at AAA in 2017, too. Fast track some of these guys a bit more. DOn't hold them back and fill the roster with AAAA wannabees.

     

    Centeno should not stay on the 40-man roster, but I agree, it'd be good to bring him back on a minor league deal, if he wants.

     

    Turner was fast tracked too much early in his career. I think he could go to AAA, but we'll see. 

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    Zuke should have been gotten rid of last year. Pitchers ERA was much lower with Murphy catching. Would be interested on how Garver and Turner will rank on this at the major league level. Stopping runs and helping the pitching staff should rank higher for a catcher is they can be passable with the bat.

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    Having not thought enough about Walker to call him up in September, do you think the Twins waste a protection slot on the 40 man roster next month?  They still have Grossman and Schafer to ponder about.

     

    Walker may not be a great defender, but I think he is a solid defender (Better than Grossman) IMO - Not that that's saying much.  

    Knowing how much you like ABW, it's interesting that you ask the question about him.

    If there is a roster crunch, I would not protect Walker.  I imagine he would be drafted in the Rule 5.  I don't think he would stick on the other team's 40 man roster.

     

    If Grossman's defense is as bad as I gather, let him go.  Schafer should not be kept.

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    Yup... he's only got like 25 games in AAA. Not saying he needs more time, but I'd almost rather him play 3 out of 4 days rather than 1 out of 4 days... I'd also be 100% fine with him in the big leagues.

     

    Good points. I am with you, I guess....either way I would understand.

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    Is it crazy to think the Twins go into next season with Murphy and Garver as their two catchers?

     

    I say yes.  Garver has 22 games at AAA and so-so production in AA.  Murphy was a train wreck all year.  I see little reason to believe that would be a successful combo at the MLB level next year (and for most of my time here I have been using "Irrational Optimist" as my member title.)

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    If there is a roster crunch, I would not protect Walker.  I imagine he would be drafted in the Rule 5.  I don't think he would stick on the other team's 40 man roster.

    I'm guessing you know this and just mistyped, but Rule 5 draftees have to be on the 25-man roster, not just the 40-man.  Your point still holds, since it's less likely he'd be kept on the 25.

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