Reviewing Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospect Rankings

You seriously think a 3rd round pick from the most recent draft who struggled is a better prospect than a pitcher who commanded the price of a legit MLB pitcher (Garcia) and dominated AA?

Let's put it this way.  If knowing what you know now could have thrown Zack Littell into the 2017 draft, again, knowing he's dominated AA and is ready for AAA, would you ever take an outfielder at least five years away whose upside potential is 20/20?

I like that the Twins used their cap space to acquire Pearson, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  It's likely he'll never have more than a cup of coffee, and if he does, he'll be at best average.

And yes, I could use the same argument with Littell and others you have listed ahead of him.  Lewin Diaz comes immediately to mind.

Twinstalker - Pearson is just out of high school, trying to adjust to the rigors of professional baseball, and you've already decided he will never get anything beyond a "cup of coffee?" That's harsh. Give him time to figure out how to be an adult before you throw him out with the bath water.

You seriously think a 3rd round pick from the most recent draft who struggled is a better prospect than a pitcher who commanded the price of a legit MLB pitcher (Garcia) and dominated AA?

 

Let's put it this way.  If knowing what you know now could have thrown Zack Littell into the 2017 draft, again, knowing he's dominated AA and is ready for AAA, would you ever take an outfielder at least five years away whose upside potential is 20/20?

 

I like that the Twins used their cap space to acquire Pearson, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  It's likely he'll never have more than a cup of coffee, and if he does, he'll be at best average.

 

And yes, I could use the same argument with Littell and others you have listed ahead of him.  Lewin Diaz comes immediately to mind.

Prospect rankings are all about potential.   Tools are rated for what they can be not what they are right now.   Pearson might be MLB average or he might be the next Mike Trout.  No one really knows at this point.   Once he has a full season of pro ball under his belt he will rise or fall on the boards.

Once players start reaching their potential we can see their ceiling more clearly.  I believe Littel is seen as a potential number 4 starter if he makes it at all.  Right now Pearson could be Mike Trout or nothing we don't know but the ceiling will be high based on his potential skill set.

You are right that 90% of these guys won't make it to the Majors so the failure rate is very high.  You still have to do what you can to find as much talent as possible.  Never know who might make it.  Brian Dozier was a long shot that many thought wouldn't make it or be average at best and he made it to the All Star game.

There is a lot to like about Pearson and there is a reason the Angels went over slot to sign him.  It is tough to find speed\power combo players and they are very valuable if they make it.

I wouldn't get to hung up on potential versus reached potential in these lists.  They straighten themselves out in time.

Granite's low ranking confuses me.  I do not see him as a star, but I do see him as a good major league player. 

I really liked your breakdowns - good ways to look at the prospects.  I would say your tendency to lower your rankings for bullpen pitchers has been justified by all the injuries and set backs that have hit the propects over the last few years.  

If I could go back to Burdi and Reed postings from 2-3 years ago it would be expected that they are already contributing in a big way.  

But evaluating relief pitchers is hampered by the fact that many successful relievers began with resumes that include failed starter.  If a pitcher gets that tag when they are still young it severly limits their growth options. 

Now - how about your list and Seth's  list side by side?

I expect there is another Buxton/Sano/Berrios in this group (other than Royce Lewis), Seth, we just don't know who.

And I see this as a special group in part because 10% (5 players) have already made it to the majors.  For 90% to not make it would mean that no other player from this list ever plays in the majors.  I would think it is more like 60%-70% won't make it...which makes this group special in my mind.

Personally, I would put Moya ahead of Burdi as there are to many questions related to Burdi's health versus Moya having already pitched for the Twins including some important innings

Have an unrelated question, Seth.

With all the top prospects scheduled to be in Rochester this year, who is catching them is going to be very important.

Can the Twins over pay a catcher signed to a minor league contract?  Could they sign someone like Chris Gimenez to a $300,000 or $500,000 contract?  Someone with his experience could prove invaluable to the development of Gonsalves, Romero, etc.

They signed veteran Bobby Wilson to a minor league deal, so he'll likely be one of their catchers.

What about the salary question, Seth.  Do you know what they typically pay players like Wilson?  Are there limitations on what they could pay?

Wow, the last two years have seen an incredible infusion/development of talent.  Lots of big droppers, but not really because they've changed inasmuch as the competition has gotten tougher.  For example-Blankenhorn.  Obviously, he didn't make a performance leap like a Badoo did, but he still played well and would seemingly have the same potential that he had a year ago when he was 7th.

Chargois going from 9 to 45 seems like it partially reflects a bit of change on the evaluators part.

It being the hopeful Christmas season, I look at the pitchers on here that are close to ready, and then at the line (and money) a guy like Chatwood sports, and I have a hard time hoping for much FA activity.  Pay your stars, develop reinforcements, and fill-in on the fringes.

And sign an ace!

I try not to get too exercised over the ordering on these rankings, but like others, I'm trying to get a feeling for the recent pickups, and I just don't see them being as good as indicated by these rankings.  I'm not putting any weight on a short season performance, we see a lot of guys look completely different in their second year vs their debut.  But from what I've gathered about Pearson and Banuelos they just don't seem like top 20 prospects in this system even though they were much more highly rated in other shallower systems.

My baseline for Pearson is Leach.  Pearson was rated slightly above Leach on most pre-draft boards, but he ended up slipping to 85 (right around where Leach was rated).  He signed overslot for around 63rd pick value.  But Leach was picked at 37th and signed for about 49th value.  I don't pretend to have special knowledge about either of these guys, but at the very least this tells me that they are in similar tiers, and that the Twins FO actually likes Leach a significant amount more.  And I don't see anything in their debuts to indicate that they've significantly diverged yet.  I'm sure you could find scouts that like Pearson better but I'm having trouble believing that you could find one who would say he's clearly a better prospect.

I'm legitimately curious if there is any sort of scouting information on Pearson (or Banuelos) that suggests that this take is significantly mistaken.  It takes me a while to get to know knew additions and I probably often underrate them.  But I feel like we got two guys who rank in the late 20's to mid 30's range in our system, not two top 20 guys.

You seriously think a 3rd round pick from the most recent draft who struggled is a better prospect than a pitcher who commanded the price of a legit MLB pitcher (Garcia) and dominated AA?

 

Let's put it this way.  If knowing what you know now could have thrown Zack Littell into the 2017 draft, again, knowing he's dominated AA and is ready for AAA, would you ever take an outfielder at least five years away whose upside potential is 20/20?

 

I like that the Twins used their cap space to acquire Pearson, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  It's likely he'll never have more than a cup of coffee, and if he does, he'll be at best average.

 

And yes, I could use the same argument with Littell and others you have listed ahead of him.  Lewin Diaz comes immediately to mind.

Pearson was a 3rd round pick but he was a mid 2nd round talent who fell. Pre-draft he was rated similarly to Rooker and in some cases, rated above Rooker. 

A players first partial season results is not a good way to rank them; you have to consider their projections and I think Seth has done so appropriately. 

Littell had an incredible period with the AA Yankees, but otherwise he has pitched like a 7k-8k per 9 pitcher in the minors and looks like he could be a nice back end arm. He did not dominate with the AA Twins. His stuff just doesn't warrant a higher ranking right now because he looks like a higher floor prospect rather than a high ceiling prospect.

I am going to enjoy following the minors this year. Solid players at every level (Chattanooga might be a bit short of position players to start the season). Excited to see some of the youngsters move to full-season ball. 

I'm also interested in some of the 2017 Cedar Rapids prospects: Rortvedt, Blankenhorn, Whitefield and Arraez. All have potential but none have broken out. Kind of a big year for these four - are they going to step up or get passed by?    

Of the 50, 12 are new to the organization since the last ranking (all of them in the top 40, by the way). Two questions:

• How does 12 compare to other years? Is our perception that the new guys have brought more talent into the organization accurate?  
• What's the status of the 12 from last year?

I expect there is another Buxton/Sano/Berrios in this group (other than Royce Lewis), Seth, we just don't know who.

 

And I see this as a special group in part because 10% (5 players) have already made it to the majors.  For 90% to not make it would mean that no other player from this list ever plays in the majors.  I would think it is more like 60%-70% won't make it...which makes this group special in my mind.

 

Personally, I would put Moya ahead of Burdi as there are to many questions related to Burdi's health versus Moya having already pitched for the Twins including some important innings

Yeah, 30-35% that "make it" to the major leagues sounds about right.  But 10-15% of that are guys that stick and are contributors for multiple years.. Players like Dozier, Rosario, Gibson, etc...   The rest are guys like Logan Darnell, Jason Wheeler, Pat Dean... technically they made it but then end up bouncing around the minor leagues or overseas.