Elizabethton Twins Roster Preview

The main problem is, we end up with a 40 man roster crunch, when the Twins are forced to protect players that haven't played much in the upper minors, thus having to use up options before they reach the majors, so they end up rushing them to the majors, before they are fully ready.

 

A secondary problem is that when we end up with players in rookie or A ball that dominate, we hear the excuse that there is no room to promote said player. If a short season A team is added, that'll give the team more flexibility to promote/demote players without having to release players or wait for injuries. Keeping a player at a level that he has mastered for a few extra months, has very little added benefit for the player and only lengthens the ETA to the majors. When it comes to player development, time needs to be viewed as a resource. 

 

I think it is a fair criticism that many of the college draftees are actually not challenged. You really have to look further than LaMonte Wade. He put up a wRC+ of 160 with a BB/K of 1.35 in the Appy league after being drafted. That league is just not much of a challenge for college players out of major conferences, whether we're talking about an early round junior or a late round senior. It's ok for junior college guys, players from small colleges, or high school players that haven't made the jump to A ball yet. 

 

Again, the way Twins are doing things is not working. Almost none of the players come up ready to contribute- sure a few may catch lightning in a bottle- but that never lasts once the league adjusts. Despite having one of the top rated farm systems the past few years, this team is on pace to lose 110 games. Surely, you must see the problem here. 

1 - 40 man 'issue' - in my opinion, it's not an issue at all. Landa and Rosario were where they were when protected because of injury, not because of being held back. Kepler and Polanco were protected at the same level, and those have worked out fine. The 40 man is definitely not taken lightly. As you can see from the 4 names if there is any issue, it's that guys who sign at 16 have to be added to the 40 man roster when they're 20/21 (and hopefully to CR) or potentially be lost. Guys signed out of high school get a couple of extra years. The issue isn't development as much as it is logistics of signing 16 year olds.

2 - I'd be fine with the team adding a 3 rookie level (short-season) teams, maybe in the New York - Penn League... but first, I want someone to research and find out how many of the 30 MLB teams have three rookie level teams. 

3 - LaMonte Wade is one year after signing and he is already in High-A... even if he maybe should have gone to Cedar Rapids a month sooner, he's moving along quite well. And, he was promoted in the midst of a 3-35 stretch. Unless you think a guy is going to seriously have a chance in the big leagues within a year of being drafted, there's no push in their first season, especially coming out of a long college season that started in January. Let them get rest. Don't over-throw them. Guys like Burdi, Reed, Rogers, Baxendale, Zach Jones, they moved up to Cedar Rapids (or Ft. Myers in Burdi's case). And Tom Hackimer is starting in Cedar Rapids now. Kyle Gibson started in Ft. Myers. It just has to be a case-by-case thing. Should have nothing with where they went to college. 

Things are bad at the big league level. It's not unusual that some rookies go back and forth a few times that some start out hot and then struggle, and others take off right away and never go back down (these are rare). There are exceptions, but every player needs to be handled separately, case-by-case.

(Disclaimer - These thoughts are mine. I don't claim they are 100% accurate, especially since there is no 100% accurate when it comes to any of this stuff.)

If it was case by case, it wouldn't be the same every year. And, if you think you know more than KLAW..... No. He has consistently criticized this approach of not challenging college players, specifically the twins approach.

I'd need to see a team-by-team, player-by-player study of what they do. I think we should start with the Cardinals as I think they're a great model. I'd be curious the following:

1.) How do they push they're big prospects? Again, because I'd say that the guys who are big prospects for the Twins aren't moved along real slow.

2.) Where do they start the just-drafted college pitchers selected in rounds 1-2?

3.) Where do they start the just-drafted college pitchers selected in rounds 3-10?

4.) Where do they start the just-drafted college pitchers selected in rounds 11-40?

5-13.) Same three questions for just-drafted college hitters, high school pitchers and high school hitters.

From those questions, we could develop the next set of questions. 

And, I'm not going to pretend I know more than Keith Law, but I don't think everything he says means much. We all just have opinions, and so does he. He just gets paid a TON more for his.

Honestly, the only place where this really happens is with international free agents signed at 16 (think Kepler and Polanco).  You don't see it nearly as much with high school kids, b/c if the kid spends more than 2 seasons in rookie ball, he's already on the bust side of the spectrum.  I really think the CBA should give those kids and extra year or two of team control prior to rule V.  As it is, it's a short season plus four full seasons for them, starting at age 16, which means they are being put on the 40 man at 20/21.  That's a problem that every major league team has, and it has nothing to do with where they start out the season. 

They added a year during one of the recent CBA changes, maybe 3-4-5 years ago. It always was one year earlier. That's why you rarely find the Johan Santana's anymore in the Rule 5 because teams have had another year to evaluate. 

And, I don't necessarily agree with players who spend two seasons in the rookie leagues being a bust. Jorge Polanco spent two years in the GCL and one in E-Town. Max Kepler spent a year in the GCL and two years in E-Town. They're young. They were very raw. It was the best thing for them. 

I hate being the guy who just says the same things over and over, but it (player development) just has to be a case-by-case thing. 

Sano and Rosario went:

1 year - GCL

1 year - ETown

1 year - Beloit

1/2 year - Ft. Myers

1/2 year - New Britain

And then that's when Rosario had the 50 game suspension and Sano missed a year. But they moved real quickly, but I'm sure there were others who felt it was still too slow.

Buxton:

1/2 year short season - GCL

1/2 year short-season - ETown

1/2 year - Cedar Rapids

1/2 year - Ft. Myers

Then he had the injury-plaqued 2014 that would have had him starting in New Britain if not for injuries in spring. Instead, they ended in New Britain.

2015 - he was in Chattanooga and by mid-June, big leagues.

Anyone think they maybe shouldn't have promoted him so fast?

Can't have it both ways.

Incidentally, Lachlan Wells, age 19, has already been sent up to Cedar Rapids.

The same age that Lewis Thorpe and Fernando Romero arrived in Cedar Rapids in 2014... And Luis Arraez and Jermaine Palacios are this year while spending the full season there...