Elizabethton Twins Roster Preview

Very surprised that Cabbage isn't on this roster (and surprised Blankenhorn is on this roster)     In 2015 they drafted 5 of the top 150 players. 1 year later, only 1 is above Rookie level ball.

Just glancing around guys who were picked around them, they look behind their peers.  

"Note also that Trey Cabbage will likely be joining the E-Twins in a couple of weeks. He has a back injury - different than last year - and should be manning third base for this team soon."

Very surprised that Cabbage isn't on this roster (and surprised Blankenhorn is on this roster)     In 2015 they drafted 5 of the top 150 players. 1 year later, only 1 is above Rookie level ball.

 

Just glancing around guys who were picked around them, they look behind their peers.  

Just look at all the college guys from last year's draft. Why they are still in rookie ball at 22, 23 is beyond me.  

Which guys at Cedar Rapids should be released... or which guys at Ft. Myers? They're not all as advanced and have more to learn... 

Well, then I guess I'm wrong.....I was mostly looking at Cabbage and Blakenthorn, who everyone raved about last year. 

 

I have no issue with a new draftee starting there, most of the time. 

 

I do see 3 or more college guys that were NOT drafted this year on the roster......

 

We can disagree on this all we want, but it is not a position I hold uniquely that the Twins start their players out at lower levels than other teams, and keep them at lower levels longer than other teams. KLAW holds that opinion about them, for example.

The nice thing is, we can look up age stats. BBref has weighted pitcher/hitter ages for every team in the minors:

CR Weighted Hitter Age    MDWL Median    CR Weighted Pitcher Age   MDWL Median

2015 21.7                            21.45                    22.6            Oldest                         21.8

2016 21.6                            21.65                    23.0            Oldest                         21.65

ET Weighted Hitter Age    APPY Median    ET Weighted Pitcher Age   Appy Median

2015 20.7                            20.55                   21.6             Oldest                       20.55

The Twins had the oldest pitchers in both the Midwest League and Appy League in 2015 and again in the Midwest League this year. In fact the Twins' pitchers were 0.4 years older than the #2 team in the Appy league last year and 0.3 and 0.5 years older than the #2 team in 2015 and 2016, respectively in the Midwest league last year. The E-Town Twins were also the oldest pitchers AND hitters in 2014. Interesting to note, that the Cards, Rays, and Astros all have affiliates in the Midwest and Apply leagues. They (with a few exceptions), were in the youngest half of each the 6 lists and never in the oldest 20%. 

Do you release some players? Well if its clear they can't master A ball well enough to make A+, then why keep them around? Or, why not add an additional affiliate? The Twins are tied for the fewest number minor league affiliates, I don't think there is any reason why we couldn't add a short season A ball team. 

The nice thing is, we can look up age stats. BBref has weighted pitcher/hitter ages for every team in the minors:

 

CR Weighted Hitter Age    MDWL Median    CR Weighted Pitcher Age   MDWL Median

 

2015 21.7                            21.45                    22.6            Oldest                         21.8

2016 21.6                            21.65                    23.0            Oldest                         21.65

 

 

ET Weighted Hitter Age    APPY Median    ET Weighted Pitcher Age   Appy Median

 

2015 20.7                            20.55                   21.6             Oldest                       20.55

 

The Twins had the oldest pitchers in both the Midwest League and Appy League in 2015 and again in the Midwest League this year. In fact the Twins' pitchers were 0.4 years older than the #2 team in the Appy league last year and 0.3 and 0.5 years older than the #2 team in 2015 and 2016, respectively in the Midwest league last year. The E-Town Twins were also the oldest pitchers AND hitters in 2014. Interesting to note, that the Cards, Rays, and Astros all have affiliates in the Midwest and Apply leagues. They (with a few exceptions), were in the youngest half of each the 6 lists and never in the oldest 20%. 

 

Do you release some players? Well if its clear they can't master A ball well enough to make A+, then why keep them around? Or, why not add an additional affiliate? The Twins are tied for the fewest number minor league affiliates, I don't think there is any reason why we couldn't add a short season A ball team. 

Ugh, formatting. 

Also, there is no reason that the guys that played college ball in the PAC12 and the ACC, should be starting their careers in the Appy League, whether or not they were to picks- it has inferior competition to the top tier of college conferences. 

These are interesting numbers, but they just don't do anything for me.

 

The guys that are prospects are well on the younger side of that. Look at the Ft. Myers starting pitchers early in the season, WAY below league average. Gonsalves and Stewart at 22 and in AA. Jorge will likely join them soon. Same with Jay. Keaton Steele is older at 24, but he's not a prospect in the same way.

 

Kirilloff will be 18 in a league where the average is 21. So was Gordon. Cabbage will be 19 and Blankenhorn 20 this year there. 

 

Yup, there are some older players. Generally the Twins select a lot of college players and some seniors in the 6-10th rounds for draft payroll reasons. (like other teams) There are always guys in those levels who are there for various reasons such as drafted as a being a senior sign or was a late-round college pitcher. 

 

Look at Hildenberger. He was a 5th year senior drafted in the 20th round about. He was 23 in the GCL... and now he's 25 and dominating in AA. Was he a bad pick? Did it hurt for him to start in the GCL?

 

How about Mitch Garver? He was a senior sign who went to E-Town, then spent a full year in Cedar Rapids, working on his defense (While hitting well). Last year he was in Ft. Myers. Now, he's 25 in AA, playing pretty well and in line to probably be a solid backup in the big leagues at 26. I don't mind that route. Would pushing him faster helped him develop? I would say no. 

 

But again... guys like Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Berrios... and guys like Arcia and Mauer in years past... they aren't slow with them. It's got to be case-by-case. 

 

So back to the point... I like looking at age to level of competition for prospect rankings, of course... But I look at the individuals too. 

All the other orgs don't have all prospects, either. And they draft college seniors too. It's not a one time thing where they just happen end up with the oldest players in a particular year. It's year after, year that they have the oldest players in the Appy league, and have been among the leaders in the Midwest League too (the exception being 2012 and 2013, respectively because of the prospects). It's a trend. It's clear that that the Twins do things differently than the rest of baseball when it comes to development and at this point it should be painfully obvious that it is not working. 

If all prospects were equal the age thing would matter.  The movement upwards of the better prospects is important. The ceiling of the remainder is what is important. Of the latter group as individuals progress towards that ceiling is more important than age. It would be likely that as they age a team adjusts the estimate of the ceiling and acts accordingly.

I've just never been too concerned about the age vs league average thing. The difference is generally a few months, not several years. Yes, they could add a short season Class A team, but that just means bringing in an additional 30-40 players into the organization each year and I don't see quantity being an issue. It's about quality.

 

From where I sit, the guys who have the best chance of making significant contributions at the MLB level don't generally get held back to an extreme. They are put into levels that will challenge them and when they need to be moved up, they are. Maybe not always as quickly as I would, but it happens within a few weeks.

 

I like that the Twins emphasize the importance of winning at every level and if having an average age a few months higher than league average comes with it, I'm fine with that. As others have said, most of the older-age guys on those rosters are guys coming out of college or buying lottery tickets on minor league free agent signings to fill roster spots.

 

I want guys who do survive the meat grinder to make it to the Twins to have experienced not only personal success, but team success.

The main problem is, we end up with a 40 man roster crunch, when the Twins are forced to protect players that haven't played much in the upper minors, thus having to use up options before they reach the majors, so they end up rushing them to the majors, before they are fully ready.

A secondary problem is that when we end up with players in rookie or A ball that dominate, we hear the excuse that there is no room to promote said player. If a short season A team is added, that'll give the team more flexibility to promote/demote players without having to release players or wait for injuries. Keeping a player at a level that he has mastered for a few extra months, has very little added benefit for the player and only lengthens the ETA to the majors. When it comes to player development, time needs to be viewed as a resource. 

I think it is a fair criticism that many of the college draftees are actually not challenged. You really have to look further than LaMonte Wade. He put up a wRC+ of 160 with a BB/K of 1.35 in the Appy league after being drafted. That league is just not much of a challenge for college players out of major conferences, whether we're talking about an early round junior or a late round senior. It's ok for junior college guys, players from small colleges, or high school players that haven't made the jump to A ball yet. 

Again, the way Twins are doing things is not working. Almost none of the players come up ready to contribute- sure a few may catch lightning in a bottle- but that never lasts once the league adjusts. Despite having one of the top rated farm systems the past few years, this team is on pace to lose 110 games. Surely, you must see the problem here. 

In looking at a very fluid roster of 14 pitchers, I see 8 of them have never thrown a pitch as a pro. All but one of the 8 is a late-round pick, Schick being the exception, our 6th round selection, age 21. Does anyone believe any of these 8 guys should be slotted somewhere besides E-Town?

Of the 6 with some previous "experience", Lujan has amassed a grand total of 19 career innings, Robinson and Vasquez 12 innings apiece. Does anyone believe the Twins are misduidedly holding these 3 guys back? Robinson is the gem here, a 5th rounder. In other words, not exactly a can't miss superstar in the making.

Then we have Martinez, age 19, a Venezuelan kid. Age 17 at DSL, age 18 at GCL. Not exactly old for this level, right?

Next: Wells, age 19, nursing an injury perhaps, but this Aussie is likely on a fast track to the next level if he continues to develop as impressively as he has so far. To argue about his initial placement at E-Town though is to seriously quibble.

Last, and probably the best case for criticism, is Quesada. He's 21, and has 64 innings under his belt. So, if one were to make a case that he might be well-served by being pushed, fine. But to make a wholesale argument that they're misguidedly placing these guys at too low of a level to start the season? Nonsense. KLAW wouldn't know what he was talking about if he offered that opinion about this group. I'm pretty sure he would not have a problem with where any of these prospects are playing to start 2016.

As Seth said, it's important to know the prospect information on a case by case basis.

Based on tonight's game, these E-town hitters are ready for Target Field. They'd fit right in.

Elizabeth Twins have struck out 16 times through 7.  Pretty impressed.

17 strikeouts through 8.   But they managed 2 home runs last inning and take the lead