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  • Draft Preview: Five to Focus On


    Jeremy Nygaard

    Despite the snow that hit parts of the midwest and the return to winter for many of the rest of the reading area, baseball is back alive and well.

    As the Twins kicked off their exhibition season, many colleges and high schools around the nation also started (or continued) their seasons. That means draft season has officially kicked off.

    How did the top draft prospects do?

    Image courtesy of © Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports (photo of Jeren Kendall)

    Twins Video

    Hunter Greene, RHP, California prep. Greene made his regular-season debut on Saturday and lived up to the hype. He struck out seven batters in five innings. He allowed two walks on the day and two runs on two hits (and a balk) in the first inning. His fastball was reportedly clocked as high as 97 mph.

    The highlight of the day, though, was when Greene hit a grand-slam to give his team a 5-2 lead. He finished the 10-3 win playing shortstop.

    You can follow Greene throughout the spring right here at Twins Daily. Judging by his team’s schedule, he will likely throw again next Saturday. The Twins were definitely in attendance on Saturday, though I was unable to confirm who was scouting the game.

    Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt. You might say that Wright has been up-and-down-and-then-back-up so far this season. In inning one of game one last week, Wright was mid-to-high 90s for an inning. But then he dropped to the low 90s for the next four innings, walking (three) more than he struck out (two). His outing was done after five frames and he didn’t show any sort of breaking ball.

    Friday night was a different story. Over 93 pitches in six innings, Wright struck out seven, allowing a run on four hits (but no walks). He worked in the low-to-mid 90s, touching 97 mph and showing a plus curveball.

    Wright has the stuff #1 overall draft picks (and front-end pitchers) are made of. For me, Wright is the leader in a very tightly-contested college pitching class.

    Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt. Kendall started off his weekend with a bang: a 436' bomb to centerfield. He added a hustle-double later in the game and finished 2-for-5.

    Saturday’s game highlighted the biggest issue that Kendall has: he struck out four times (twice looking, twice swinging) and was intentionally walked in his fifth plate appearance.

    On Sunday, Kendall went 0-for-5 with an extra-inning strikeout. He also failed to bunt successfully earlier in the game. Kendall was asked to bunt last week and ended up bunting into the air, causing a game-ending double-play.

    Kendall’s speed, arm strength and pretty left-handed stroke along with his potential to hit home runs and play center field make him a five-tool prospect. But those tools come with a few question marks that were highlighted over the last three games.

    Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida. On a similar path as Wright - Faedo struggled in a 4.2 inning, four-run showing in his debut - game two was a bounce-back.

    Against rival Miami, Faedo was one out short of a complete game, allowing only two hits and striking out eight. He was replaced in the ninth inning after a two-out error was followed by a full-count walk, his first and only walk of the game. He threw 119 pitches.

    Though I couldn’t connect with anyone who was at the game, there are reports that he had “full command” of “nasty” arsenal, which includes a low-to-mid 90s fastball with movement, a very good slider and a developing change-up.

    Royce Lewis, SS, California prep. The JSerra Catholic High School athlete will begin answering questions about whether he can stick at shortstop when his season kicks off on March 11.

    ---

    Though there is no official “board” anywhere in any Twins front office member’s office, Greene’s name sits atop the unofficial board I’ll be updating over the next few months. I’d put both Faedo and Wright slightly in front of Kendall. Lewis remains a bit of a dark horse until he starts to play, but the Twins are high on his potential.

    1. Hunter Greene
    2. Kyle Wright
    3. Royce Lewis
    4. Alex Faedo
    5. Jeren Kendall

    How does your board look?

    --

    Hrbowski also posted on some draft prospects this weekend.

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    Agree on Kendall.

     

    How much upside does Wright have? He is sitting low-to-mid 90s, and occasionally cracking 95. Translating that to pro-ball workload, that isn't terribly impressive. Gerrit Cole he is not (as one recent example). Is he even at the Kevin Gausman level? It will be interesting to see how his velocity tracks during the next months, but right now I'm not impressed.

     

    He's still maturing physically. He's still developing as a starter after relieving his first season. I'd say he's got a ton of upside. 

     

    When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall. 

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    From all I read I want Greene, but I would use him as a fielder first, as long as he has good hit tool.  From what I read he has the heat, but other pitchers are behind, as expected from a HS pitcher.  If he fails as a hitter you can change to pitcher easier than from pitcher to hitter after missing so much time hitting, being he would never hit in the organization.

     

    For those thinking outside the box, why not use him as a hitter then dabble with him in the bullpen as a potential closer down the road.  He plays game as a position player and 9th comes along and he takes the mound.  I do agree one should not split what he is learning but better option than going from starter to position player.  

     

    Overall as it sits now, I would take Greene start him as a hitter and if he falters move him to the mound.

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    From all I read I want Greene, but I would use him as a fielder first, as long as he has good hit tool.  From what I read he has the heat, but other pitchers are behind, as expected from a HS pitcher.  If he fails as a hitter you can change to pitcher easier than from pitcher to hitter after missing so much time hitting, being he would never hit in the organization.

     

    For those thinking outside the box, why not use him as a hitter then dabble with him in the bullpen as a potential closer down the road.  He plays game as a position player and 9th comes along and he takes the mound.  I do agree one should not split what he is learning but better option than going from starter to position player.  

     

    Overall as it sits now, I would take Greene start him as a hitter and if he falters move him to the mound.

     

    He has the potential to be an ACE, and you'd not use him as a pitcher? I'm not sure I understand, but am open to reading more...

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    My board is exactly ONE deep.  Hunter Greene.  In what looks like a weak draft, he probably has the most upside.  And he has a "fall back" option in that if pitching doesn't seem to work out, they could move him to a position and at least get something out of the pick.  At the very least, he may develop into a closer.

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    Too early to figure out who the Twins should pick.

     

    However. The last prep pitcher who was drafted 1-1 and signed, was a "cannot miss prospect" like Hunter Greene is. The immortal Brien Taylor, lefty mind you. (Great retrospective on that signing here. A must for any Greene fans.)

     

    The competition that high schoolers are facing is about 5-10% (at best) of what College pitchers are facing (and this assumes that 1 of their opponents will make it as a starter in a College squad, which is not really true.) And if one has a 98 mph fastball as their only good pitch, he can fool a lot of high school kids....

    Counter point, This is also the same line of thinking that had 5 teams drafting College pitchers over Kershaw in 2006, only 1 of which turned into a good pitcher (as a reliever mind you) in Andrew Miller. Also in that draft multiple teams passed on Lincecum because he was small and was destined for the pen, kinda like Bukauskas. The last few guys I remember having this conversation about were Jameson Tallion, Dylan Bundy, and Lucus Giolito. In those cases the 1st two have made it to the majors and pitched quite well and Giolito is one of the best prospects in the minors. Aiken was obviously another guy who was talked about like this but no one could've predicted his circumstances and he could still end up being good

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    I would never let my kid go to a college program if he would be a top HS pitcher/1st/2nd round pick. Most of the coaches don't care about the athletes at all. 

     

    That's the feeling I get, though to be fair, they probably do actually care about the players and do want them to have success, it would be hard to get into coaching if you don't have at least some interest in young people. They just seem to care about their job security much, much more. Unreasonably too considering college baseball coaches don't get fired nearly as much as their counterparts in the higher profile football and basketball ranks.

     

    I'd bet they justify it to themselves because the pitcher says he wants to go out there for another inning, they then conveniently forget that athletes, and young men in general, have a tendency to have low impulse control and a vision only of the here-and-now and these young men need an adult with a big picture view to reign in their recklessness.

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    My board is exactly ONE deep. Hunter Greene. In what looks like a weak draft, he probably has the most upside. And he has a "fall back" option in that if pitching doesn't seem to work out, they could move him to a position and at least get something out of the pick. At the very least, he may develop into a closer.

    This is not a "weak" draft by any means. I think it's actually much stronger than the last 2 years, especially pitching wise. Think about it, in 2015 Dillon Tate was the first pitcher taken and he was a college closer. Last year was one of the worst college classes I can remember and the #1 pick of Moniak is the definition of "meh." I haven't researched the depth in this class but at least the top 15 guys seem to be fairly solid. Yeah, maybe there's not a Bryce Harper but here's a news flash, there rarely is

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    When I did my fall "ask-around" (before the Twins clinched the #1 spot), one scout told me he'd take Wright first overall. 

     

    Was that before or after the Falvey and Lavine hiring and the Johnson & Johnson scouting director switch?

     

    Just wondering because Wright looks more like a vintage Terry Ryan kind of pitcher. On the other hand Deron Johnson lately seemed to go the other way and take the bigger FB/higher ceiling arms.

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    Unfortunately, the rule doesn't allow you to DH for your next weakest position player....which would be fun.

    The rule also doesn't let you retain the option of inserting a DH once your Babe Ruth clone hits the showers. If you submit a lineup without a DH, you lose it for the entire game.

     

    If you're sure your pitcher will go 6+ innings, maybe it's worth the hassle/risk of having to pinch-hit for the rest of the game.

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    After Greene I've been most interested in Faedo. That might change though if he keeps throwing 120 pitches per game. Man, the velocity will leave his FB before he's 25 if he keeps getting abused like that.

     

    Seriously, It's still February, some of those coaches from big programs seem to have next to no concern for anything past the June college WS. A playoff by the way that Florida is almost certainly going to be part of whether Faedo throws 119 pitches in February or not.

     

    Seems a little unfair.  According to the article there was a two-out error and then a full count walk.  He was looking at a complete game at around 110 pitches before the error.  Coach probably wanted to give him one more batter to finish it off and it happened to be a full-count walk. 

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    Seems a little unfair.  According to the article there was a two-out error and then a full count walk.  He was looking at a complete game at around 110 pitches before the error.  Coach probably wanted to give him one more batter to finish it off and it happened to be a full-count walk. 

     

    why was he in the game for 110 pitches?

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    why was he in the game for 110 pitches?

     

    Going for the complete game win.   If the kid is a stud and can stay effective beyond 100 pitches, I like that.   I'm not Blyleven, but I do have to say I'm not a fan of the arbitrary 100 pitches get him out of there mentality.  I'll sit back and read as this comment gets ripped apart the rest of the day. 

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    Going for the complete game win.   If the kid is a stud and can stay effective beyond 100 pitches, I like that.   I'm not Blyleven, but I do have to say I'm not a fan of the arbitrary 100 pitches get him out of there mentality.  I'll sit back and read as this comment gets ripped apart the rest of the day. 

     

    I'm not either, but you wanna bet if this happens more, or less, this year? You do know the history of college coaches abusing these guys, right?

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    What are the chances Greene sticks at SS? A two-way SS / closer would be cool.

    I'm gonna say chances are slim. He is listed at 6'4" 205 as a 17 year old which is pretty big especially considering he will probably keep growing. For context A-Rod was 6'3" 190 when he was drafted and he was considered unusually big for a SS and it was debated whether he could stick at SS, granted he played there for some years but was eventually moved to 3rd. Also Sano was 6'4" 190 when we signed him as a 16 year old so there's that

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    Was that before or after the Falvey and Lavine hiring and the Johnson & Johnson scouting director switch?

     

    Just wondering because Wright looks more like a vintage Terry Ryan kind of pitcher. On the other hand Deron Johnson lately seemed to go the other way and take the bigger FB/higher ceiling arms.

     

    Before those things. But the scouting staff as a whole hasn't really changed. Three new guys replaced two guys that were let go.

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    I'm not either, but you wanna bet if this happens more, or less, this year? You do know the history of college coaches abusing these guys, right?

     

    I'm not going to bet anything and I'll admit I have not studied up on the history of college coaches abusing their pitchers.   I was mostly trying to point out that Faedo approaching 120 pitches in this specific game seems to be more a result of how the last few batters played out versus a predetermined plan to have him throw 119 pitches.   

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    I'm gonna say chances are slim. He is listed at 6'4" 205 as a 17 year old which is pretty big especially considering he will probably keep growing. For context A-Rod was 6'3" 190 when he was drafted and he was considered unusually big for a SS and it was debated whether he could stick at SS, granted he played there for some years but was eventually moved to 3rd. Also Sano was 6'4" 190 when we signed him as a 16 year old so there's that

    I just wonder about the "two-way" pitcher helium. After all, Jake Arrieta had the highest wRC+ among pitchers last year with a 91. Whereas at catcher- the next "easiest" position to be a two-way player, 14 guys had wRC+'s above 91. In other words, its relatively hard to be a two-way catcher, compared to a two way pitcher.

     

    People talk about Greene like he has a safety in his bat if the pitching doesn't work out. Well, depends where he is on the diamond. If he can stick at SS, then yeah maybe there is a real net there. If he's gotta play 3rd or OF, how much of a net does he really have?

    Edited by Willihammer
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    My non-sabermetrics view on Hunter Greene is pretty high. He's a gamble coming out of high school, but his athleticism and character make him a good bet to me.

     

    Baseball America (I know, relax) had a good story about his work ethic, intelligence, and overall

    character. Even if the Twins don't take him, I'll be keeping an eye on him to see how his career pans out, if it does.

     

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/get-to-know/

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    benjamin
    12:30 does hunter greene have a very good chance to remain a starter?

     

    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:31 I think so. Elite level athlete for a pitcher, delivery is gorgeous, prototypical size/strength, there's nothing not to like.

     

    That's different than, "Should Greene go 1-1?"

     

    Greene's becoming a cult hero in the Twin Cities.

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    Hunter Greene's build reminds me of Dave Winfield.

     

    I saw teh video of his season opener and he looked like Doc Gooden/Dave WInfield going out on that mound.  My initial thought would be to avoid the HS pitcher, but after looking at taht his physical athleticism on the mound is just intimidating.  

     

    He is the obvious #1 pick for the Twins.  If I am the Twins I am also moving him swiftly up the minors.

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    Two of the top 5? No.

     

    The difference between the first and second pick is only $550k, so there isn't this great incentive to take less money at #1 when you can get nearly the same amount at #2. 

     

    End of the day, though, they could maybe save $400k. They do have some flexibility with having #35 and #37. Maybe they have a guy they really like that agrees to take $1m at #35 and then they have $2m they can spend at #37 (but that's only equal to the #31 pick).

     

    So long story longer, they do have some financial flexibility, but not enough to get two top 5 talents. They'd be better off banking it all until Round 11 and taking a Round 3-4 high school talent again like they did last year in Benninghoff.

     

    That makes sense... so here's the real question.  Is there a guy or guys that may be a mid-first rounder that would fit the mold of someone they could offer an overslot to at 35 or 37 who they could entice to demand a lot more if they could get their top pick under slot by a bit?  (Hint, that might be an interesting series on its own).

     

    Given how hard it is to find successful picks after round 1, this seems like an option they should strongly consider.. unless of course they are enamored by the HS talent in this draft.

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    That makes sense... so here's the real question.  Is there a guy or guys that may be a mid-first rounder that would fit the mold of someone they could offer an overslot to at 35 or 37 who they could entice to demand a lot more if they could get their top pick under slot by a bit?  (Hint, that might be an interesting series on its own).

     

    Given how hard it is to find successful picks after round 1, this seems like an option they should strongly consider.. unless of course they are enamored by the HS talent in this draft.

     

     

    Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops?

     

    Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents?

     

    The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again. 

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    Are you willing to take someone that isn't likely to go Top 5 first overall? To *maybe* get a guy that drops?

     

    Or would you rather have the guy you like the most and two other Top 40 talents?

     

    The Twins have always played the draft relatively straight and I'd expect that to happen again. 

    Don't the top players/agents have a pretty good idea of where they're going to sign before the draft starts based on conversations that take place before the draft? Or is it more up in the air than that.

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