Anticipating a Breakout for One Twins Prospect

I think the pandemic year really hurt Urbina.  He had a good first year, and then had to sit for a year before he was aggressively placed in Fort Myers by the Twins.  Then, last year, he was late getting started and only had part of the year.  Development isn't linear, especially under these circumstances, so I would not be surprised at all if he did have a breakout year.  Like all of baseball, the Twins are depending more and more on international players, and by the look of the top 20-40 prospect lists, we have a lot of young guys that will soon be joining Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez and others in the bigs.  

Let Kepler go and get him out there to see what he has.  If he has it great if not let him go.

I don't know what to think of Urbina just yet.  There seems to be a fair bit of work to do.  Until last year his K rate was under 20% and even last year it was only 23% so he is making contact just not solid contact.  It feels like he might have a bit of Jose Miranda syndrome.  Miranda was good at making contact, so good in fact he was able to hit balls outside the zone.  The problem was he needed to swing at better pitches to increase his odds of better contact.  Once he started walking more and being more choosey at the plate he had his breakout.

I don't think that Urbina will ever have the power that Miranda has but I think if he wants to break out the solution would be to follow the Miranda plan.  Make pitchers work and try and force them to give you your pitch. Urbina needs to be good in two strike counts.  If Urbina can harness plate discipline I think he can be more Arraez like in that he has great contact skills always had and always will. By being patient he should find his way to solid contact and barrel more balls up.  I think to breakout that is what it is going to take. Easier said than done.  We will see if this is the year it all comes together. It seems like it took Miranda a while to get there so it might not be this year just yet.

Urbina, Severino and really other minor leaguers need break out seasons.  The Twins traded some of their top prospects in 2022, more need to progress or find others.

Based on his performance, development to-date, and potential, he’s probably ranked 9th on the current list of Twins’ 2024/2025 possible outfielders (note, Kepler, Gallo, and any additional RH bat acquired are absent):

1. Buxton. 
2. Gordon. 
3. Larnach. 
4. Kiriloff. 
5. Wallner. 
6. Martin. 
7. Rodriguez. 
8. Celestino. 
9. Urbina.  

The bad news for Urbina is that he’s ninth. The good news for Urbina is that not a single one of those players can be counted on to be an everyday player because of injury risk and/or proof of development.

So there is a lot for him to play for re his future with the Twins. And as for the Twins, he is certainly still one of their bets they have out there to fill one of the four available projected OF slots behind Buxton. Let’s see how ‘23 goes for him. 

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Let Kepler go and get him out there to see what he has.  If he has it great if not let him go.

Dump Kepler and throw a 21 year old who hasn’t played above A ball out there and say sink or swim. If he sinks, dump him too. Hmmm. 
Seems as if every other MLB team has already weighed in on that option. Any team could have had him for next to nothing in the Rule 5 draft. All they had to do was keep him on the 26 man roster for the year. No mandate to put him out there as a starter or ever even play him. That no one claimed him says he is a long way from that level. Doesn’t mean he is a bust or bad player, just still developing. Remember that the same situation occurred with Miranda with no one claiming him. It will be interesting to see if he is protected in next years Rule 5, and if not, will anyone claim him. 

1 hour ago, RJA said:

I think the pandemic year really hurt Urbina.  He had a good first year, and then had to sit for a year before he was aggressively placed in Fort Myers by the Twins.  Then, last year, he was late getting started and only had part of the year.  Development isn't linear, especially under these circumstances, so I would not be surprised at all if he did have a breakout year.  Like all of baseball, the Twins are depending more and more on international players, and by the look of the top 20-40 prospect lists, we have a lot of young guys that will soon be joining Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez and others in the bigs.  

I think this is a key point: the loss of a minor league season due to the pandemic really hurt Urbina's development schedule. (He's not the only one who got pinged there. a lot of these young players need game time and competition to measure where they are and to see how their skills are applying in order to determine what they really need to work on to improve, but also to just improve skills generally)

I'm glad he slipped through the Rule 5, though I'm not that surprised. It's tough to take a position player who has never played above A-ball and stash him on the MLB roster for a full season unless they are already MLB-quality defenders at CF, SS, or C because they're almost certainly not ready to hit in MLB or they would have been protected in the first place. If Urbina might be slipping down on the defensive scale already then he doesn't fit that profile.

A strong hitting year from him could jump him back up on this lists quickly and he's still quite young.

I would start by revising his batting stance if it is anything like in the picture. 

It's strange with Urbina potential that he's only at A. But besides covid, it's a big step for a boy from possibly a poor family, totally different culture that don't speak English to play pro ball here in the US, experiencing homesickness & culture shock all at the same time. I'm not sure Urbina is from DR, but playing there initially there wasn't as much of a culture shock.

 Hopefully all that is in the past & he's a young man ready to explore his dreams. I suggest the Twins not to force him into that power corner OF but let his body dictate when he's ready or if he stays at a more natural line driving CF is better yet. Wish him luck!