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  • AFL Recap - Week 5: Hitters And Bullpen Shine


    Steve  Lein

    Twins prospects playing with the Surprise Saguaros helped their team to a 4-2 record in Week 5, and their (current) record of 16-13 overall is tops in the West Division. On the position player front, Nick Gordon continued looking like a legitimate leadoff man, Mitch Garver stood out defensively, and Tanner English continued to pose as a piranha at the end of the Surprise Saguaros lineup. On the pitching side of the coin, the bullpen stood out and made up for the hiccup from Stephen Gonsalves.

    (Author Note: Apologies on the late report again this week, but it’s still hunting season)

    Image courtesy of Linwood Ferguson (photo of Tanner English)

    Twins Video

    To see how they all fared in week 5 of the AFL season, keep reading!

    (links provided to each player’s overall stats by clicking their name)

    Stephen Gonsalves – 1 game started, 0.2 IP, 4 ER’s, 3 H’s, 3 BB, 11.12 ERA (overall).

    Gonsalves got the start in Wednesday’s game against the Scottsdale Scorpions, and before he even took the mound his teammates had spotted him a 3-0 lead.

    Unfortunately for the lefty, that is the most positive thing that came out of this one. He walked the first hitter he faced, threw a wild pitch and allowed a single to the next, then made an errant pickoff throw that scored the first run of the game for Scottsdale. Another walk and single loaded the bases before he got a double play ball and a chance to limit the damage to just two runs. But it was another walk followed by a two-run triple that ended his day without finishing an inning.

    Gonsalves racked up thirty-one pitches with just thirteen of them going for strikes. He will look to bounce back next week!

    Nick Gordon – 4 games, 5-14, 3 R’s, 2 2B’s, 3B, RBI, 2 BB’s, 3 K’s.

    Gordon picked up a hit in each of his four games on the week, and also reached base multiple times in all of them, proving quite useful as a leadoff man.

    In Monday’s 8-5 win over Salt River, he was hit by a pitch to start the game as the leadoff man, but it was his single in the third inning that led to him scoring the Saguaro's first run of the game. The play included a throwing error that moved him into scoring position, and he would later score on a single. He also drew a walk in the fifth inning to reach base in three of five plate appearances on the day.

    On Wednesday Gordon was again the leadoff man, and again reached base to start the game. This time it was a single to right field and he went on to score the first of three runs in the inning. That would be it for runs until the ninth inning in the 5-4 loss to the Scorpions, but in between Gordon doubled and struck out twice in his other three trips to the batters box.

    Gordon started the game off with a bang on Thursday, when he drove a triple to center field as the first hitter. He scored the first of Surprise’s three runs in the inning on a double from the next batter. He drew a walk in the second to reach base for a second time, but was left stranded and did not reach base again in any of his final three at-bats.

    In Saturday’s 4-2 win over the Mesa Solar Sox, Gordon finally failed to reach base in his first plate appearance but would come through late for his squad. Up 3-2 in the bottom of the seventh, Gordon followed a leadoff double from Tanner English with one of his own to drive him in and make the final score of 4-2. Gordon was also hit by a pitch in the fourth inning and was thrown out trying to steal third after his double.

    After another strong week, Gordon’s .343 batting average was good for fifth on the AFL leader board and his .429 on-base percentage was fourth.

    Mitch Garver – 3 games, 3-13, R, 2B, RBI, 2 K’s.

    On Monday, Garver hit the ball hard in three of his four plate appearances, but only had a single to show for it. His line drive deep to center field in the second inning allowed the runner to tag up from first and advance a base, and he lined out to third in the fourth. His single in the two-run sixth inning put runners on the corners and helped tie the game at three, then he went down looking in his final plate appearance in the eighth.

    In Thursday’s 3-1 win over Glendale, Garver played a bigger role. He drove in the second run of the first inning with a single, and scored the third on a ground-rule double later in the inning. That was all the lineup’s scoring for the game, but Garver led off the third inning with a double and reached base in the seventh after the ball got away from the catcher on a strikeout. He finished his day 2-5.

    Back at catcher after DHing on Thursday, Garver had his quietest day of the week on offence with an 0-4 effort, but made a big impact on defense. Four men attempted stealing second base, but only one was successful. This included killing two runners after singles in the third inning and another in the fourth that directly prevented scoring opportunities in the 5-3 for his team.

    As Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press points out, Garver knows his time in the AFL could have a big impact on his future, and is not taking anything for granted.

    Tanner English – 5 games, 5-13, 3 R’s, 2B, RBI, BB, 4 K.

    English started four games on the week, and also got into action in another as a defensive replacement late in the game. He did not get an at-bat in that one.

    In Monday’s 8-5 win, English was 1-3 with an infield single that came in the eighth inning and also scored a run after a throwing error. He also picked up an outfield assist with a force out at second base, catching the runner in no man’s land on a liner. He was also caught stealing after being hit by a pitch in the fifth.

    In the Saguaro's 5-4 loss on Wednesday, English had just three plate appearances as Scorpions pitchers retired fifteen in a row at one point, and was in the on-deck circle for the game’s final out. He was 0-3.

    After entering the game in the eighth inning for defensive purposes in Thursday’s 3-1 win, he was back to starting in center field on Friday. Batting eighth, English notched a single and a run scored in each of the second and sixth innings in the 5-3 win.

    To cap off the week on Saturday, English again notched two hits in a win for his team. Back to batting ninth (second leadoff!), he delivered an RBI single in the fourth inning, and later stole third base for his second steal of the AFL season. He led off the eighth inning with a double and scored the insurance run when Gordon followed with one of his own.

    Mason Melotakis – 2 games, 2.0 IP, 0 H’s, 0 BB’s, 3 K’s, 0.90 ERA (overall).

    Making two appearances on the week, Melotakis extended his scoreless streak to seven games, and has allowed just one run in ten appearances thus far.

    In Tuesday’s loss to the Mesa Solar Sox, he pitched the seventh inning with his team down 10-5. It was a one-two-three inning with eight of his twelve pitches going for strikes, and he picked up two K’s.

    On Thursday Melotakis got the sixth inning in Surprise’s 3-1 win over Glendale. Again the opposition went down in order, and he picked up his third hold in the process. He struck out one in this one and needed just seven pitches.

    Randy Rosario – 2 games, 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H’s, BB, 3 K’s, 4.63 ERA (overall).

    Rosario pitched in two games on the week, and went two innings in each.

    On Monday he pitched the seventh and eighth innings in their 8-5 victory, picking up the win after his offense exploded for five runs in the bottom of the eighth. He went one-two-three in the seventh, but a walk and two singles in the eighth accounted for his one earned run. Of his twenty-six pitches in this one, seventeen went for strikes.

    In the Saguaro's 5-3 win on Friday, Rosario pitched the sixth and seventh innings, retiring all six men he faced on twenty-two pitches. He struck out two in the sixth, and one in the seventh in the process.

    John Curtiss – 2 games, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 2 K’s, 3.38 ERA (overall).

    Like his fellow bullpen Twins, Curtiss also made two appearances on the week, his coming in the games on Tuesday and Friday.

    With his team down 10-6 against Mesa, Curtiss pitched the bottom of the eighth inning to finish the game for Surprise. It was a quick and easy one-two-three effort that took just five pitches.

    On Friday with his team up by two, Curtiss was summoned for his first save opportunity. After striking out the first two hitters he faced, he allowed a single, but a ground ball back to him on the mound secured the victory for his team.

    After a slow start to his AFL season (3 ER’s and 6 H’s allowed in his first two innings), Curtiss has now allowed just one run on seven hits and a walk in his last eight appearances, totaling 8.2 innings pitched. He has also struck out twelve over that time, and has racked up multiple K’s in seven of ten overall appearances.

    Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the performances during the week!

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    I've been watching Garver since he was drafted, along with Turner, but the more I see and read, how can you not be excited by him? He may not be the next Mauer, but how few are or ever will be? We may have a legitimate, quality 2 way catcher right on the precipice of making it to The Show.

     

    And I dont want to hear he's almost 26. Catcher is a premium position which sometimes takes longer to develop. There aren't that many early 20yo's like Mauer or Rodriguez that show up. He came from the college ranks and has made steady progress.

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    I've been watching Garver since he was drafted, along with Turner, but the more I see and read, how can you not be excited by him? He may not be the next Mauer, but how few are or ever will be? We may have a legitimate, quality 2 way catcher right on the precipice of making it to The Show. And I dont want to hear he's almost 26. Catcher is a premium position which sometimes takes longer to develop. There aren't that many early 20yo's like Mauer or Rodriguez that show up. He came from the college ranks and has made steady progress.

     

    I'm with you on this, and age means nothing to me at the position. If he comes up and spends most of 2017 in the big leagues and becomes really good, he'll be a free agent at 32. That's 6-7 years. No reason for that to be a negative. 

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    Seth - any chance of either (or both) Curtiss and Melotakis making the opening day roster with the Twins? They could be two big pieces in the bullpen. And I like the idea of Garver being given a shot on opening also. What's there to lose?

     

    I'd say it's a long shot. I've written before that Melotakis has been on the Chargois route, and that worked perfectly. So, I think he's a guy that could be ready mid-season.

     

    Curtiss spent most of this season in Ft. Myers after spending April in Cedar Rapids. So, he's a little further out (drafted later and missed a bit of time with injury in 2015). 

     

    We'll see how free agency treats Falvey/Levine, but Garver is close. No question. 

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    I'm with you on this, and age means nothing to me at the position. If he comes up and spends most of 2017 in the big leagues and becomes really good, he'll be a free agent at 32. That's 6-7 years. No reason for that to be a negative. 

     

    Almost preferable. If things go well you get his prime and you aren't going to have to make a free agent choice when he's 29 and on the edge of declining.

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    I'm with you on this, and age means nothing to me at the position. If he comes up and spends most of 2017 in the big leagues and becomes really good, he'll be a free agent at 32. That's 6-7 years. No reason for that to be a negative. 

    I agree that age doesn't matter if he becomes really good, but age does effect the likelihood that he becomes really good!

     

    Looking back since 2010, there have been 21 catchers who have done what Garver did this past year (300+ PAs at AA, 24-26yo, at least 118 wRC+). One (Stephen Vogt) ended up as an above-average regular. Another, Caleb Joseph, is arguably a starter. The third best in the list is probably Chris Herrmann. The majority never made it to the majors, many only got a cup-of-coffee. In contrast, looking at the same criteria for catchers 23yo and younger, there were twelve total. Four (D'Arnaud, Norris, Realmuto, Contreras) look to be at least average regulars, and another three (Susac, Vazquez, Swihart) are backups to varying degrees.

     

    Now I'm not saying that Garver's chances are zero, but history suggests that they are not very high. Every year there are roughly three older catchers in the high minors who do as good or better than what Garver did last year, and the vast majority do not have an impact in the majors. 

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    I agree that age doesn't matter if he becomes really good, but age does effect the likelihood that he becomes really good!

     

    Looking back since 2010, there have been 21 catchers who have done what Garver did this past year (300+ PAs at AA, 24-26yo, at least 118 wRC+). One (Stephen Vogt) ended up as an above-average regular. Another, Caleb Joseph, is arguably a starter. The third best in the list is probably Chris Herrmann. The majority never made it to the majors, many only got a cup-of-coffee. In contrast, looking at the same criteria for catchers 23yo and younger, there were twelve total. Four (D'Arnaud, Norris, Realmuto, Contreras) look to be at least average regulars, and another three (Susac, Vazquez, Swihart) are backups to varying degrees.

     

    Now I'm not saying that Garver's chances are zero, but history suggests that they are not very high. Every year there are roughly three older catchers in the high minors who do as good or better than what Garver did last year, and the vast majority do not have an impact in the majors. 

     

     

    Are some thinking that he'll become an All Star? Odds are that he can be an OK regular and an idea platoon/half-time player. For that, 26 isn't a big deal. And yeah, there's an outside chance he becomes more. But I don't think anyone's expectations should be real, real high.

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    Odds are that he can be an OK regular and an idea platoon/half-time player.

    Looking at the recent history of similar minor-league catchers, I think odds are that he starts less than 100 big league games in his career and is out of baseball before he turns 30. My guess is that there is a 10-20% chance that he ends up as an OK regular.

     

    This isn't a knock on Garver; he has done well as a later round pick to continually move up and be on the doorsteps of the majors. But the reality is that he has almost 2000 PAs in the minors, but less than 100 at AAA. He still has a lot of development left to be successful in the big leagues, but that is going to be happening in his late twenties when his physical skills will be plateauing at best, deteriorating at worst. He might still be successfully - that's why the probability isn't zero. But it seems unwise to count on him right now.

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