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  • 2018 Twins 40-Man Roster Decisions


    Seth Stohs

    The MLB offseason is upon us. There are many decisions that this front office will need to make. Some will happen soon. One big decision that is made every November is which players to add to the 40-man roster. Being added to the 40-man roster is a huge thing for players. They make a little more money in the minor leagues, but more important, a huge obstacle to being called up to the big leagues is removed. Here is a list of Twins minor leaguers who would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected.

    Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Nick Gordon)

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    As a reminder, here are some of the criteria for who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not protected. Here is this year’s criteria:

    1. Players who signed when they were 18 or younger in 2014 (during the minor league season).
    2. Players who signed when they were 19 or older in 2015.
    3. Players who were eligible in previous seasons are also eligible again.
    4. Players drafted or signed during the 2012 season became free agents after the World Series was complete. That includes Luke Bard and DJ Baxendale. If the Twins signed them (or other minor league free agents) before the Rule 5 draft, they would be eligible to for the Rule 5 draft.

    But back to the players needing to be added or risk losing to the Rule 5 draft, I’ll break them into a few categories. The Givens are players that I think have to be added or there is a high percentage that they will be selected if they are not. The next are players that are more On The Bubble. It will be interesting to see which of these guys are added. How many spots are available on the team’s 40-man roster, etc. I’m going to add a couple of Sleepers. Finally, the Next category are those players that probably won’t be added and yet do have a chance to be selected by the right team with the right need or the right report.

    The Givens

    Andrew Vasquez would have been in this list, but he was called up to the Twins on September 1st. I have two players listed as givens.

    1. SS/2B Nick Gordon - He may have struggled in the second half of the season after his promotion to the Red Wings, but Gordon, the team’s top pick in 2014 just turned 23 and remains a quality prospect. Will he play second base or shortstop, or both, in the big leagues? Yes.
    2. OF LaMonte Wade - Wade will turn 25 on New Years Day. He returned to AA to start 2018 and hit the same number of home runs in less than half as many games. He hit .229 in Rochester and still got on base 33% of the time. The outfielder is close and for the right team, he could start in the big leagues now.

    On The Bubble

    Again, this group is the players on the bubble. Depending upon how many players the Twins add, a couple of these players could be added.

    1. 2B Luis Arraez - After missing most of 2017, Arraez returned to form with the Miracle in 2018 and ended the season with two months in Chattanooga. While not a high ranking prospect, the second baseman can hit single after single.
    2. RHP Jake Reed - If it was me, Reed would be a given, but he already didn’t get selected a year ago in the Rule 5 draft, and he didn’t get a September call up despite being tremendous over the final three months of the season. Now 26, he is ready for a big league opportunity.
    3. RHP Nick Anderson - As good as Reed was over the final three months, that’s how good Anderson was during the season’s first three months. Another inexplicable exclusion from the September roster adds, Anderson is absolutely ready for a big league opportunity, making him a strong Rule 5 candidate.
    4. LHP Tyler Jay - The Twins top pick in 2015 has endured a series of arm injuries which have cost him time and some of his stuff. Now a reliever, he still has a chance to be a big league contributor.

    The Sleepers

    Here are a couple of guys who might be brought up some places as possible .

    1. RHP Johan Quezada - Signed way back in September of 2012, Quezada only has four games pitched above the rookie leagues. He was very raw when he signed. He grew a ton, but then he struggled with shoulder issues for a couple of years. He returned this year and found an upper-90s fastball. He turned 24 late in the season and isn’t likely to stick, but he is a very intriguing arm.
    2. RHP Andro Cutura - Cutura returned in May after missing two years due to Tommy John surgery. The former seventh-round pick threw well for the Miracle in his return. Again, probably not so much a Rule 5 guy as one to watch in 2019.

    The Next

    This is a group that contains some intriguing names. While they aren’t obvious choices, there could be a team that likes them enough to take a shot with a Rule 5 pick.

    1. 1B/OF Zander Wiel - Now playing first base and left field, Wiel had a really nice season in AA Chattanooga before a late-season promotion to Rochester.
    2. RHP Ryan Eades - The Twins second round pick in 2013, Eades continued to pitch in multiple roles. Not a starter, and not a late-inning guy, Eades could be intriguing for teams interested in using him as an Opener candidate.
    3. C Brian Navarreto - Navaretto is such a strong defensive catcher. If he can hit even a little bit, he could have a long big league career. He’s got the size, but he just hasn’t put up the numbers offensively.
    4. OF Jaylin Davis - Davis is playing well in the Arizona Fall League. He was able to cut down his K-rate and increase his walk rate in 2018.
    5. RHP Hector Lujan - Another AFL candidate, Lujan has slowly worked up the system and continued to add pieces to his game. He throws hard and has some intriguing secondary pitches.
    6. RHP Cody Stashak - Stashak moved to the bullpen in 2018 and really had a nice season. He too could be intriguing as teams look to use the Opener of bullpening strategies in coming years.

    The Rest

    Here is a list of other players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the Twins organization.

    • LHP Sam Clay
    • OF Tanner English
    • RHP Randy LeBlanc
    • IF Alex Perez
    • LHP Alex Robinson
    • 1B/3B Chris Paul
    • OF Jean-Carlos Arias
    • RHP Miguel De Jesus
    • RHP Sandy Lugo
    • LHP Lachlan Wells
    • RHP Yancarlos Baez
    • RHP Williams Ramirez
    • RHP Moises Gomez

    Now, the number of players added to the 40-man roster will in large part depend upon how many players that the front office is willing to remove from the 40-man roster over the next couple of weeks. In the comments below, discuss my ranking and rank them by how you would protect them.

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    Who gets protected is dependent upon who gets designated.  Hildenberger, May, Reed, Rogers are not going anywhere. Busenitz, Curtis, De Jong, Drake, Duffreyl, MaGill, Moya,  Vasquez versus Reed, Anderson or Jay.  Likewise they have Gonsalves, Jorge, Romero, Slegers, Stuart and Thorpe. A few are obvious still keepers, but how many do they protect ?  Would nay team really want to keep them?

     

    Arraez and Rortvedt are interesting calls. Arraez is a throwback type 2b On base but one at a time.  Some team will think they can teach Rortvedt to hit well enough to be backup if his defense is good. He is barely 21.  It would seem unwise to leave him available given catching talent in the league. Does a tanking team take him for future value.

     

    I would be completely shocked if Andrew Vasquez is DFAd. He was brought up for a purpose. He's potentially part of the future. So, he's' not going anywhere (well, I guess he could be traded, but he's not a DFA candidate). 

     

    As for your starters... Jorge came off the roster in the season. Slegers is a possible DFA candidate. The others are not getting DFAd (again ,could be trade options). 

     

    Rortvedt and the other high school picks from 2016 (Kirilloff, Baddoo, Miranda, Balazovic, Benninghoff) won't be eligible for two more years. 

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    Rule 5( c )( 1 )( C ): if the signing date of a player’s first Major or Minor League contract is between
     (i)    the conclusion of the championship season for the Major or Minor League Club to which the player is assigned on such contract and
     (ii)   the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting,
    then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 Selection Meeting, for purposes of this Rule

     

    The term “championship season” shall refer to the full schedule of regular-season games that has been approved for a Major or Minor League Club in accordance with the provisions of Rule 32.

     

    The above excerpts are taken from THE OFFICIAL PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL RULES BOOK.

     

    I don't know which team he was assigned to, but in 2014 the DSL finished its regular season around August 21. So for Rule 5 purposes I take this to mean he counts as a 2015 signing, and thus he has one more year.

     

    Thanks Ash for clearing the air on Graterol

     

    Alcala is another player whose Rule 5 status has been debated

    Birthday: July 28, 1995

    Signed: December 3, 2014 Houston Astros signed free agent RHP Jorge Alcala to a minor league contract.

     

    I believe the following earns him another year of Rule 5 freedom:

     

    (1) A player without previous Major or Minor League service who signs with a
    Major League or independent Minor League Club shall be subject to selection based on the following:

     

    (A) if 18 years of age or under on the June 5 immediately preceding the
    player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fifth Rule 5
    Selection Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or
    Minor League contract, unless Rule 5©(1)© applies;

     

    (B) if 19 years of age or over on the June 5 immediately preceding the
    player’s signing, the player shall be subject to selection at the fourth Selection
    Meeting that follows the signing date of the player’s first Major or Minor
    League contract, unless Rule 5©(1)© applies;

     

    also from THE OFFICIAL PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL RULES BOOK.

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    Bref lists Belisle as being on the 40 man. Most would and should assume gone as Belisle was signed to a one year contract without options.

     

    Mauer, Belisle, Gimenez and Forsythe became free agents after the World Series. Santana and Morrison have options that the Twins will have to decide on, likely in the next day or two. 

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    But the GCL and DSL seasons were over, so he's not eligible... at least that's what I've been told by a few people.

    You are correct. Graterol was first assigned to the DSL Twins (albeit not until 2015, but that doesn't matter), and the DSL season was already over by Sep. 1st in 2014.

     

    Hypothetically, had he first been assigned to a full season minor league in 2015, he could have been eligible this winter.

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    Don't you think it's a tad premature to be deciding the 40 man roster even before Rocco has a chance to see with his own eyes what he's got? Or not?

     

    They don't have to officially make the moves until mid-November (maybe the 20th or so?). 

     

    And Baldelli won't see them. These decisions are totally front office/minor league staff decisions... The manager may help them lean toward a style or something to (very minimally) input an opinion.

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    This list isn't exactly going to keep me up the night before the draft.  Even "the givens" seem to be no-brainers only because the Twins figure to have so many spots available. Don't need to go very far down the list...especially of position-players...to get to those that have near-zero chance of being drafted and kept.  But with the trend for rosters to carry/use more and more pitchers, picking the correct arms to protect is going to be key on a yearly basis.

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    Updated You be the GM 40-man Toolkit

     

    Shows current MLB 40-man roster with list of Rule 5 Eligible for this year and next

     

    Feel free to Make a Copy if you'd like or Duplicate the "DUPLICATE THIS SHEET TO MAKE YOUR PROJECTION" tab and make your own 40-man

     

    Take a screen shot and post for others to scrutinize as they see fit

     

    Here's mine

     

    1030 40-man

     

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    Oh, hells bells, as much as I dislike Gordon as a prospect, I didn't mean to exclude him or Wade. I meant Arraez is the only position players among the non-givens. Since nobody on the first page of comments said "wha?" it must have been inferred by all. :-)

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    Don't you think it's a tad premature to be deciding the 40 man roster even before Rocco has a chance to see with his own eyes what he's got? Or not?

     

    He won't see any of them with his own eyes until Spring Training, so they'd better not wait that long.

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    It seems the vast majority of Rule 5 players to stick are pitchers. I wonder if that's part of why the Twins, for example, are so disproportionately pitcher-to-position-player when it comes to their 40 man roster.

     

    If so, that's an unfortunate side effect.

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    Updated You be the GM 40-man Toolkit

     

    Shows current MLB 40-man roster with list of Rule 5 Eligible for this year and next

     

    Feel free to Make a Copy if you'd like or Duplicate the "DUPLICATE THIS SHEET TO MAKE YOUR PROJECTION" tab and make your own 40-man

     

    Take a screen shot and post for others to scrutinize as they see fit

     

    Here's mine

     

     

    I count 27 guys on the current 40-man and Rule 5 eligible that I want on the roster next year, and five or six of those wouldn't disappoint me if they were gone.

     

    The good news is this off season should hold very little angst as far as roster decisions go. The bad news is there's a lot of work to do to because if you don't sweat losing good players, it means you don't have enough good players. 

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    I count 27 guys on the current 40-man and Rule 5 eligible that I want on the roster next year, and five or six of those wouldn't disappoint me if they were gone.

     

    The good news is this off season should hold very little angst as far as roster decisions go. The bad news is there's a lot of work to do to because if you don't sweat losing good players, it means you don't have enough good players. 

    23 pitchers currently on the 40-man. 14 field guys. Whew.

     

    I could easily say goodbye 8-10 players that could be replaced with competent cuts from other teams. Happily the Twins really only need to add 3-5, at the most, on their roster. Which made most of the trades look really good at the deadline...they got players that they didn't need to add to the roster but can take a good look at for a season in the minors.

     

    Be interesting to see what remains of the AAA and AA rosters from free agency, and how many bodies the Twins search out for those rosters, compared to guys already in the system needing play.

     

    Bu the reality of looking at the 40-man...how many names from the 37 shown would actually get a major league contract (i.e. 40-man spot) on the roster of another team in either league. That is what is scary of the Twins current roster!

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    Bu the reality of looking at the 40-man...how many names from the 37 shown would actually get a major league contract (i.e. 40-man spot) on the roster of another team in either league. That is what is scary of the Twins current roster!

     

    Yeah, those reliever heavy drafts are starting to come home to roost now. I once was very excited about many of those names. Now, while I still see some talent in several, most of them I'd only want back if they clear waivers and don't have to be rostered. 

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    Navarreto was drafted in 2013, so he's not a free agent for another year. Bard and Baxendale became free agents at the end of the World Series. 

     

    One thing for people to remember... The Twins will DFA some more guys before they add a few guys. I don't expect them to add too many. Remember,, those players added can't be removed from the 40-man roster until sometime in spring training. So, they'll leave some open roster spots and they'll keep some guys on the 40-man roster that they can DFA during the winter if needed. 

     

    Do we know if LaMonte Wade is better than Robbie Grossman? I don't know that. I would say No right now. 

     

    We KNOW Wade has options and is younger, so he gives them a lot that Grossman doesn't, in terms of flexibility........and potential, but really it's about options.

     

    Gordon, Wade, Arreaz (sp?) for sure. Other than that, not sure it matters much.

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    Drake and Field have both been offed and claimed by other teams. Now four open spaces after the Michael Reed addition.

    Here's the links...

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/rays-claim-oliver-drake-waivers-twins-outright-jesus-sucre-adam-moore.html

     

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/cubs-claim-johnny-field-waivers-twins.html

    Edited by goulik
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    In my "offseason blueprint" I've been casually working on, I'm currently clearing 11 spots on the 40-man, filling 4 or 5 of them with FA big league signings, then filling the rest with Gordon, Wade, and Triple-A/Double-A pitchers. 11 seems like a lot of spots but I'm not concerned about any of the names I included.

     

     

    Yeah, literally no one of consequence has been selected in the minor league phase of the rule 5 drafts history. Baseball America answered a question I submitted about this a few years ago referring to Max Kepler. The baseball america link doesn't appear to work anymore, but there is this thread:

     

    http://twinsdaily.com/topic/8429-ask-baseball-america-the-rule-5-draft-and-max-kepler/

     

    But in that article they talked about protection of players in the minors. There's "reserve" rosters (which aren't published to the masses) at Triple-A and Double-A. Literally all of a team's top prospects will be on the Triple-A version of this roster, even if they're at Low-A while eligible. That means they could only be selected in the MLB phase. 

     

    Same thing for the double-A version of the roster, players on it can only be selected in the MLB or Triple-A phase. These total rosters amount to around 115 players, so you're buying from the bottom of a system's barrel in the minor league phase.

    Johan Santana

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