2016 Twins Roster Projections: The First Basemen

If anything goes off of plan, who are some of the options to fill in at first base in the coming years, and are there any prospects with the potential to be impact players down the line? Read on and see what you think, and then let’s discuss below in the comments.

MAJOR LEAGUES

Joe Mauer enters his third season as the Twins first baseman. The last two years have been frustrating for the St. Paul native. In his first ten seasons, Mauer caught. He was a six-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger, a three-time Gold Glove winner, a three-time batting champ and the 2009 MVP. In those ten years, he combined to hit .323/.405/.468 (.873), an OPS 35% better than the average player. His last two seasons, he hit a combined .270/.348/.376 (.715), the OPS is just 1% better than average. Defensively, most of his metric would call him an average or slightly better than average first baseman.

Byung Ho Park will be the primary DH, though he was a Gold Glove winner at first base in the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO). He will likely get some time at first base as well. We have learned that the Gold Glove in Korea is more of an offensive award. The Twins brought Park in for his bat. In the last two years, he has hit a combined 105 homers and driven in 270 runs. Over his last four seasons in the KBO, his OPS were .954, 1.039, 1.119, and 1.150. He will turn 30 in May. There is likely to be a learning curve early in his season.

MINOR LEAGUES

Rochester Red Wings

Kennys Vargas is kind of the odd man out with the signing of Park. He is a first baseman and a DH. Vargas came up from AA on August 1^st of 2014 and hit ten doubles and nine homers in 53 games, mostly as the Twins cleanup hitter and DH. 2015 was a frustrating season for the slugger. He began the season in the big leagues. He was sent down to AA. He came back up, but at the end of June, he was sent back to AA, and Miguel Sano was called up. Vargas played well the rest of the way and moved to AAA and came back to the Twins in September. In 58 total games, he hit .240/.277/.349 (.626) with four doubles and five homers. There were rumors about him being sold to Korea, but that would make little sense. He’s still just 25 years old and has an option year remaining. With injury possibilities, and the possibility of Park needing a little time in the minor leagues, having depth will be important. Vargas can also be an intimidating bench bat, due to his size.

Reynaldo Rodriguez is 29 years old and 2016 will mark his 11^th professional season. After spending time in the Red Sox and Yankees, this will be his fourth in the organization. It will be the first time he has an invitation to big league spring training. In Rochester in 2015, he hit .255/.307/.446 (.753) with 34 doubles, 16 homers and 80 RBI.

Chattanooga Lookouts

Dalton Hicks was the Twins 17^th round pick in 2012 out of Central Florida. He was in AA with the Lookouts in 2015. In fact, he was our choice for Hitter of the Month in April. However, he was hurt most of the rest of the season. He spent it in Ft. Myers rehabbing. He did return to the Lookouts late in the season. He will be 26 years old at the start of the 2016 season. In 2013, he led minor league baseball in RBI with 110 (1 more than teammate Adam Brett Walker). At 6-5 and nearly 250 pounds, Hicks has good power.

Bryan Haar was the Twins 34^th round pick in 2012 out of the University of San Diego where he played third base before moving to first base to accommodate a third baseman named Kris Bryant. At 6-3 and 220 pounds, Haar is a good athlete with some pop in his bat. He played in just 68 games in Ft. Myers in 2015, largely due to injury.

Ft. Myers Miracle

Trey Vavra played less than two months of the 2015 season, but he was very good with the Kernels. In fact, when he was hurt in late May, he was leading (or top three) the organization in most offensive categories. However, he suffered an ankle injury that later was determined to be a broken bone in his foot. He had surgery and missed the rest of the season. He has spent this offseason playing for the Melbourne Aces in the ABL, alongside his brother Tanner and playing for his father, Joe. It was an opportunity for him to make up some at bats. Assuming he gets to spring training and 100%, he should be pushed to Ft. Myers.

Minnesotan Blake Schmit will also likely be given an opportunity to start the year with the Miracle. A late-round pick in 2014 out of Maryland, Schmit began 2013 in EST. He moved up to Cedar Rapids, but he was hit in the face with a pitch and missed a couple of months. He returned in a utility role for the Miracle. He can play all four infield spots.

Cedar Rapids Kernels

Zander Wiel will turn 23 next week. He played for three years at Vanderbilt. Last year, he hit .316/.406/.571 (.977) with 19 doubles and 15 homers. The Twins took him in the 12^th round and he signed following the College World Series. Wiel is a very good athlete, tall and strong. After signing, he played in just a couple of games before being hit in the hand with a pitch. He missed a month. He is an advanced hitter and should jump straight to Cedar Rapids.

Amaurys Minier was the Twins big international signing in 2012. He signed for about $1.5 million. He spent 2013 and 2014 in the GCL and improved his OPS from .707 to .925. He began 2015 in the GCL, but just two games before moving up to Elizabethton. The only reason for that is because he was again hurt late in spring training and rehabbed through extended spring training. He hit just .194/.279/.280 (.559) with nine doubles and two homers in E-Town. Don’t be surprised if he starts in EST again, but he should spend time in Cedar Rapids.

Extended Spring Training

In July of 2013, the Twins big international signing was outfielder/first baseman Lewin Diaz. His body type is often compared to David Ortiz and Ryan Howard, so first base was always the place he would most likely play. He spent 2014 in the Dominican Summer League. He came to the States in 2015. He played in 33 games for the GCL and hit .261/.354/.369 (.724) with seven doubles and a homer. He moved up to Elizabethton for the final 14 games and hit just .167 but hit three home runs. Power will be his game. He is most likely to spend the year in Elizabethton.

Kolton Kendrick was the Twins eighth round pick in 2015 out of high school. He was regarded as the most powerful high school bat in the draft, compared to the likes of Mark McGwire and Josh Hamilton by Baseball America. He’ll strike out a bit, and may not hit for real high average, but his power potential is great. Unfortunately, after signing, he came down with mono and played just 24 games. He hit .200/.371/.271 (.642) with three doubles and a triple while regaining strength. He will go to extended spring training and could go either to Elizabethton or stay in the GCL.

SUMMARY

Joe Mauer is the first baseman. Byung Ho Park is the designated hitter. They can flip-flop once or twice a week as needed. If either gets hurt, Kennys Vargas is just Rochester away.

In the lower levels, there is a lot of big power potential. Hopefully Dalton Hicks and Trey Vavra can return to their early 2015, pre-injury forms. Zander Wiel has power potential. Amaurys Minier, Lewin Diaz and Kolton Kendrick are all very raw, but have very big power potential.

First Base Prospect Rankings:

1. Byung Ho Park,
   
2. Lewin Diaz
   
3. Amaurys Minier
   
4. Kolton Kendrick
   
5. Trey Vavra